Go Back   Professional Soldiers ® > At Ease > General Discussions

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 10-27-2018, 01:03   #1
Scimitar
Area Commander
 
Scimitar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Hobbiton
Posts: 1,198
Sri Lanka coup d'etat - Urgent info needed

SRI LANKA COUP D'ETAT
SEEKING INTEL

Does anybody have any intelligence on this?
We're unlucky (or lucky) that this has occurred at the same time as having no western staff in country (rare occasion).
And we can't get a clear picture from our own limited sources in country.

This could end up being nothing or (not completely unreasonably) could end up with China "assisting" Sri Lanka military with stabilization.

______________________________


Late Friday night the Sri Lankan President summarily and unconstitutionally fired the Prime Minster, apparently with the blessing of the Armed Forces, and immediately replaced him with a political ally.

Local press is speculating that this unconstitutional move occurred due to a growing riff in the current government over the recent 99 year lease of the Hambantota port to the Chinese government, to be used as a vital node in China's belt and node initiative, and many postulate as a Chinese military base in the near future.

Geopolitically, I would speculate this is almost certainly Sri Lanka getting stuck in the middle of the strategic battle between India and China over Chinese power projection into the Indian Ocean.

BBC News Link

______________________________


Any info appreciated.

Cheers

S
__________________
"Do not pray for easy lives. Pray to be stronger men! Do not pray for tasks equal to your powers. Pray for power equal to your tasks."
-- Phillip Brooks

"A man's reach should exceed his grasp"
-- Robert Browning

"Hooah! Pushing thru the shit til Daisies grow, Sir"
-- Me

"Malo mori quam foedari"
"Death before Dishonour"
-- Family Coat-of-Arms Maxim

"Mārohirohi! Kia Kaha!"
"Be strong! Drive-on!"
-- Māori saying

Last edited by Scimitar; 10-27-2018 at 01:25.
Scimitar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-27-2018, 04:44   #2
JJ_BPK
Quiet Professional
 
JJ_BPK's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: 18 yrs upstate NY, 30 yrs South Florida, 20 yrs Conch Republic, now chasing G-Kids in NOVA & UK
Posts: 11,901
Couple news articles

https://naaju.com/us/ranil-wickremes...n-dismiss-him/

https://tech2.org/aus/the-president-...he-parliament/

https://tech2.org/aus/sri-lanka-mahi...dent-named-pm/

https://www.courrierinternational.co...-coup-de-force

https://www.dnaindia.com/world/repor...tution-2679796
__________________
Go raibh tú leathuair ar Neamh sula mbeadh a fhios ag an diabhal go bhfuil tú marbh

"May you be a half hour in heaven before the devil knows you’re dead"
JJ_BPK is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-27-2018, 14:26   #3
Divemaster
Quiet Professional
 
Divemaster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Washington
Posts: 2,053
Currently there are no indications of the government shutting down egress/ingress from the country. Flights are operating normally in and out of CMB. I am not seeing indications of imminent flight disruptions (delays/cancellations). Several international flights are inbound, taking off, and taxiing to gates or to the runway as I write this.

US Embassy Sri Lanka is operating normally and has issued no advisories. Sri Lanka remains listed as Level 1—Exercise normal precautions. Spain, France, and the UK are all at the higher Level 2, exercise increased caution. However, you should know that a change in this status is a trailing, rather than a leading indicator.

If opposition political groups take to the streets en masse, then the situation could change, and business continuity impacted. If you know what to pay attention to, you would see indicators of events that could impact employee safety and business functions from hours to days in advance. What could reduce your warning time? Location. Is your facility located on or very near sites typically used for political activity like rallies and protests? Think government buildings, parks or public squares known for previous political activity, peaceful or otherwise. Are these types of locations between where your people live and work? If they can’t get there, can you still function? Preplan routes to skirt trouble.

Have a communications PACE plan—Primary, Alternate, Contingency, Emergency methods of contact in an emergency.

Recommendations:

If your Western staff is required for business functions related to implementing your business continuity and crisis plans, consider putting them in place to review those plans and conduct an exercise. There is nothing quite like an ongoing national event to lend an air of realism to your tabletop or practical exercises.

Monitor local media no matter where in the world you are.

Establish an Atmospheric Intelligence Network (AIN) to serve as an early warning tripwire. Your post suggests this is not yet in place. Your AIN should consist of local business and governmental contacts, vendors, clients, hotels, and your neighbors. These are people who will be better tuned in than expats to developing events. Not only do you want to be in regular contact with these information enablers, you need to analyze the information they provide.

PM if you have any questions.
__________________
Grando autem duodecimo hominis
Divemaster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-27-2018, 15:08   #4
Scimitar
Area Commander
 
Scimitar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Hobbiton
Posts: 1,198
UPDATE
  • President has prorogued Parliament until 16 November, likely so as to stall a vote to confirm the "old" Prime Minister, and to buy time to bribe opposition MPs to cross the floor so as to gain a majority.
  • Chinese Ambassador lost no time in meeting with new PM


JJ BPK and Divemaster, thank you for your replies!

We certainly where expecting at least some aggressive protests, but as of yet nothing of note; unusual for Sri Lanka.

Our primary indicator has been contacts watching for any significant changes to the security habits or match schedule of the UK cricket team currently touring Sri Lanka, and we see nothing of note. We also monitor the various open source reports from embassy's we have relationships with, US, UK, NZ, German. This and the info you've spoken of Divemaster certainly speaks to things remaining calm, at least for the short term. The next known significant event will be the planned reopening of Parliament on 16 November. Do you have any thoughts on other indicators that may be of use? The idea of monitoring flights is excellent, as most international airlines have robust security / intel measures in place.

I've been having previous discussions with the Directors about the need to increase our readiness and planning in the short term, and in the long term, to consider setting up our second operations team outside the circle of China's destabilizing influence. I think I might now have their ears.

Any further thoughts or info welcome.

S
__________________
"Do not pray for easy lives. Pray to be stronger men! Do not pray for tasks equal to your powers. Pray for power equal to your tasks."
-- Phillip Brooks

"A man's reach should exceed his grasp"
-- Robert Browning

"Hooah! Pushing thru the shit til Daisies grow, Sir"
-- Me

"Malo mori quam foedari"
"Death before Dishonour"
-- Family Coat-of-Arms Maxim

"Mārohirohi! Kia Kaha!"
"Be strong! Drive-on!"
-- Māori saying

Last edited by Scimitar; 10-27-2018 at 15:21.
Scimitar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-27-2018, 15:26   #5
Divemaster
Quiet Professional
 
Divemaster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Washington
Posts: 2,053
Scimitar,

Monitor the social media accounts of opposition political figures and groups, as well as any hashtags they use. This will often provide the earliest indicators of intent and future activity. Also monitor the accounts of reporters covering politics and related issues. Reporters will frequently scoop their own stories via Twitter and other social media outlets before it airs or is published by their employers.
__________________
Grando autem duodecimo hominis
Divemaster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-28-2018, 05:30   #6
Scimitar
Area Commander
 
Scimitar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Hobbiton
Posts: 1,198
UPDATE

Sri Lankan staff reporting Army out in force in and around CBD of capitol.
Possibly in preparation for a protest rally in support of the unconstitutionally ousted Prime Minister.

In Sri Lanka, these things typically don't stay peaceful for long.

...And just now, two protesters shot and injured...it begins

S
__________________
"Do not pray for easy lives. Pray to be stronger men! Do not pray for tasks equal to your powers. Pray for power equal to your tasks."
-- Phillip Brooks

"A man's reach should exceed his grasp"
-- Robert Browning

"Hooah! Pushing thru the shit til Daisies grow, Sir"
-- Me

"Malo mori quam foedari"
"Death before Dishonour"
-- Family Coat-of-Arms Maxim

"Mārohirohi! Kia Kaha!"
"Be strong! Drive-on!"
-- Māori saying

Last edited by Scimitar; 10-28-2018 at 05:34.
Scimitar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-28-2018, 11:37   #7
Divemaster
Quiet Professional
 
Divemaster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Washington
Posts: 2,053
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scimitar View Post
UPDATE

Sri Lankan staff reporting Army out in force in and around CBD of capitol.
Possibly in preparation for a protest rally in support of the unconstitutionally ousted Prime Minister.

In Sri Lanka, these things typically don't stay peaceful for long.

...And just now, two protesters shot and injured...it begins

S
This is where ground truth from people you trust becomes vital. Media may (or may not) be reporting accurately, but all lenses focus on the most sensational events. Business contacts living in the area can tell you what is happening in the areas surrounding the protests.

Example: The Galadari hotel is well situated. Call the front desk and ask if getting to the hotel is difficult and if things are normal on the surrounding streets. They will most likely be honest as they don't want anything bad happening to guests. If you know the GM (get to know GMs & Security Managers!), ask about employee absenteeism. A sudden drop in attendance is an indicator.

Plot the police roadblocks, based on information from your Atmospheric Intel Network. Lacking your own intel network, social media monitoring can assist. Is your facility inside or outside the protected zone. Being inside may protect property and people already onsite, but could make it difficult to sustain any non-automated operations. Sometimes it is better to be outside the perimeter.

Your local staff can be a wealth of information. Is your security manager trained to debrief employees for information of intelligence value? He or she should be. This can be done over the phone if it is not safe for them to travel. The information received needs to be analyzed, locations plotted on maps, and briefed to decision makers. Does the site need to close temporarily or, conversely, do leaders need to be flown in to take charge, or to reassure employees and customers?

Are local employees included in your Travel Risk Management program?
__________________
Grando autem duodecimo hominis
Divemaster is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is Off
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump



All times are GMT -6. The time now is 09:45.



Copyright 2004-2022 by Professional Soldiers ®
Site Designed, Maintained, & Hosted by Hilliker Technologies