Egypt's Solvency Crisis

[MtnGoat]

Egypt's Solvency Crisis

http://www.cfr.org/egypt/egypts-solvency-crisis/p32729

If we look at Egypt and how it was been shaping out since the Brotherhood took over. There has been more transnational terrorism and insurgency warfare (low-level insurgency in the Sinai Peninsula) within Egypt and the Horn of Africa (HOA), which has altered the security conditions in many of the places where you would have thought democracy should have been budding. Egypt's economy is endangering new freedoms and posing a non-development state that can lead to international security threats in the region. I think one of the big issues going on right on is the fact that Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait have been floated the Egyptian economy for the last few years. Egypt, just like many countries, can't meet it's financial obligation to be a leader in the region.

[Peregrino]

Reminds me of stacking dominos. Your Bolivarian Socialism thread (VZ et al) plus ongoing economic crisis around the EU fringes plus Russian and Chinese sabre rattling all contribute to a general perception of incipient global instability. Not a reassuring state of affairs.

[MtnGoat]

Originally Posted by Peregrino

Reminds me of stacking dominos. Your Bolivarian Socialism thread (VZ et al) plus ongoing economic crisis around the EU fringes plus Russian and Chinese sabre rattling all contribute to a general perception of incipient global instability. Not a reassuring state of affairs.

Yeap the ratting of "sabers" doesn't. Lead to a reassuring state of affairs.

[Pete]

From the article

"...Tourism revenue—traditionally a primary source of foreign currency along with Suez Canal tolls and remittances from Egyptians working abroad—is less than half of what it was in the last full year before the uprising. ..."

We on this board have been kicking that angle around the past two years.

If Tourists don't think it's safe they ain't going. I'm just surprised so many are still going - but it is a great deal if you do.

[Flagg]

Originally Posted by MtnGoat

Egypt's Solvency Crisis

http://www.cfr.org/egypt/egypts-solvency-crisis/p32729

If we look at Egypt and how it was been shaping out since the Brotherhood took over. There has been more transnational terrorism and insurgency warfare (low-level insurgency in the Sinai Peninsula) within Egypt and the Horn of Africa (HOA), which has altered the security conditions in many of the places where you would have thought democracy should have been budding. Egypt's economy is endangering new freedoms and posing a non-development state that can lead to international security threats in the region. I think one of the big issues going on right on is the fact that Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait have been floated the Egyptian economy for the last few years. Egypt, just like many countries, can't meet it's financial obligation to be a leader in the region.

Turkey has also been a big player too in Egyptian construction.

t looks like tourists in Egypt spent ROUGHLY $1 billion US per 1 million visitors.

And tourism ROUGHLY employs 1% of Egypt's workers per 1 million visitors and represents ROUGHLY 1% of GDP.

So a collapsing tourism sector(again roughly 75% collapse, loss of 9 million visitors, and up to $9 billion in foreign currency export earnings and 9 million jobs) could really give Egypt a kick in the head while it's down.

A compounding risk is islamists who tend to dislike anything that predates islam, going around and wrecking antiquities like the Taliban blowing up the Bamyan Buddhas, or just scaring away tourists even more with another Luxor massacre type of attack.

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One thing that doesn't seem to get much mention, and is a common theme for Egypt, Iran, and Pakistan is the HUGE economy influence and control possessed by the Egyptian and Pakistani military industrial complex and the IRGC.

They all possess direct control over vast chunks of the economy, circa 30+% in the case of Egypt.

That's certainly a "small" political machine advantage to be leveraged for recently resigned defense minister Sisi.

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Will countries like Qatar(as well as the mentioned Saudi, Kuwait, and UAE) perpetually continue to backstop Egypt from financial implosion to prevent the spread of the revolution virus?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...9CA95P20130110

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What's going to happen with the Nile?

http://allafrica.com/stories/201302230440.html

http://nazret.com/blog/index.php/201...y-changing-dam

I know it's not on the radar, what with so many more top of mind crisis.......but the risk of conflict over the Nile in the future is very real.

Could Egypt's government ever find itself looking at an external conflict to distract an angry domestic audience(like Argentina circa 1982) by looking South at the Nile?

Past performance is indicative of future performance.....and Egypt did have it's Vietnam in Yemen....the Nile would be a more worthwhile if equally foolish foreign adventure distraction.

Egypt does reportedly have a bunch of airborne battalions dedicated with the job of seizing upriver objectives like dams. Whether they could actually pull it off is another story.

Droughts have a way of spurring regional conflicts...is Egypt just a drought away from conflict/chaos?

[Flagg]

Originally Posted by Pete

From the article

If Tourists don't think it's safe they ain't going. I'm just surprised so many are still going - but it is a great deal if you do.

A good mate of mine I've served with has started a pattern of visiting largely empty tourism destinations for the screaming good deals.

Last year was Lebanon, where he said they had the Roman era ruins to themselves and could bargain down for souvenirs much harder since there were no other customers.

Next week is Egypt.