Pandemic Flu

[ZonieDiver]

I guess I'm a case study for the theory of natural selection.

Well... with your current avatar, wouldn't it be "natural selection" in reverse?

[jasonglh]

Originally Posted by smp52

Interesting article on vitamin D deficiency and influenza.

Epidemic Influenza and Vitamin D Deficiency.

Any thoughts? Some interesting points being brought up...

Looks like some of his ideas were recently backed up with research.

Vitamin D deficiency linked to more colds and flu

[InTheBlack]

This is an opportunity to do a "real time" drill...

Can anyone point me to instructions for calculating the actual number of cases of flu in a defined "local" geographic area given the number of confirmed cases?

And where can one find the data to plug into that equation, on the net, in real time, when something is happening? Realizing that much is estimation; you can still bracket it.

[nicc8268]

Here is an article that really goes in depth with this topic. It makes some excellent points and is well worth the read. It is unfortunate that this article ,and this Doctor will not make it to the mainstream media. He is top notch when it comes to anything regarding health.

http://articles.mercola.com/sites/ar...Swine-Flu.aspx

[Red Flag 1]

Originally Posted by mugwump

I've talked to a couple of people much smarter than me and it's apparent that nobody knows anything. In fact, it's pretty apparent that they don't even know what they don't know -- Rumsfeld's "unknown unknowns". They don't know the Ro (transmission rate), the CFR, mortality rate, why there's a difference in virulence between MEX and the rest of the world, etc.

They state what they don't know in a very authoritative way, so it's easy to be fooled. But they are arguing whether this is a first wave, whether there's a co-circulating strain in MEX we haven't seen here yet, if a vaccine can be produced in time for a second wave, if there will be a second or third wave, whether this represents a pandemic at all, and if the sun is currently in the sky.

Finally, it seems there have been a lot of eyeballs on this thread lately. The regulars know this but I just want to make it clear to new readers: I am just an interested amateur and not an authority on this stuff. Any advice I've given on travel etc. is just a WAG. I answered a recent "should they travel" question because I had skin in the game but I'm totally unqualified otherwise. I honestly don't know if people should fly, wear masks, start hunkering down, etc.

Huh. As a perfect example, I just got an email from a guy saying I'm FOS regarding this wave burning out and he says that there's historical precedence for strong summer pandemic waves. Then he goes on to say that I might be right after all.

So...I'm going to back away from this rather than contribute further to the blather ("infodemic"). Definitive answers to the above questions will come in due time, and the MSM is interested enough at this point to get the information out. If I see anything that I think is BS or being missed I'll add a post.

Mugwump,

Please keep us posted. I personally feel you are providing the best insight to be found regarding this flu!!

Thank you for your posts!!!

RF 1

[CoLawman]

This might be encouraging.

http://www.theage.com.au/national/wh...0429-amlk.html

[InTheBlack]

The noon news showed a Government person saying "we are preparing as if it were a pandemic."

Shocking words.

[Richard]

As a precautionary measure, Texas just announced they've cancelled all scholastic athletic and academic competitions until further notice.

Richard's $.02

[temsmedic]

We have a disease that sweeps across the US infecting 25-50 million citizens, and kills 30-40k. This happens EVERY year [seasonal influenza]. H1N1 doesn't seem to have the lethality [at this time] to get overy concerned [those reports from Mexico can't be verified].

I look at this as a wake-up call, and a good test of our system in case something really nasty like H5N1 [Bird] flu acquires good human-human transmission. H5N1 has, as of 4/23, killed 61% of those we know to be infected [actual lethality much lower since we aren't capturing the full denominator in the data].

I still have a stash of Tamiflu/Relenza/masks/respirators/alcohol gel in case it's needed. In addition, we've got enough food that we could not leave the house except to go to the lake to get water in case we need to completely isolate [I'd sleep in a tent since I can't avoid the hospital]. FYI, Relenza is about $20 cheaper per course of therapy than Tamiflu. Influenza A this year was resistant to Tamiflu though, so new viruses can pick up that gene pretty easily, since it is so wide-spread.

[Saoirse]

Yesterday, Fox News stated that two deaths in Caliornia (one on April 22) are believed to be swine flu related but autopsies are still ongoing. (Have not heard anything new thus far).
Today, it was confirmed that the 22 month old visiting Mexican boy died in Houston of swine flu. His family is not showing signs of infection; however, it was said that the little boy was sick when he came to the US on April 7th.
TODAY at 1607 EST, W.H.O. has now raised the pandemic threat level to 5 (6 beng the highest).
Let's hope that good sense, proper actions and good medical help prevails.

[Snaquebite]

Here's an information paper my parent company released today. while not a medical company, they make probably the best respirators and SCBA products around.

[ATTACH]Info Paper[/ATTACH]

[incarcerated]

Originally Posted by Saoirse

Yesterday, Fox News stated that two deaths in Caliornia (one on April 22) are believed to be swine flu related but autopsies are still ongoing. (Have not heard anything new thus far).
.

Today from VOA:
http://www.voanews.com/english/2009-04-28-voa40.cfm

…. The Los Angeles Times says the local coroner's office has concluded that two flu-related deaths in the Los Angeles area do not appear to be linked to swine flu….


This also:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/topNew...53S8JY20090429

California Marine has swine flu; 30 quarantined

Wed Apr 29, 2009 10:56pm BST
LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - About 30 U.S. Marines on a Southern California military base, the nation's largest, have been quarantined after one of them was confirmed to have contracted the swine flu virus, the Marine Corps said on Wednesday.
The case was identified at the Twentynine Palms Marine Corps Air Ground Combat Centre and was confirmed by the U.S. Centres for Disease Control, the base said in a statement.

[InTheBlack]

HiB vaccine is not on the recommended list for adults.

Can someone direct me to a military document outlining why it is administered & what the dosage/schedule is?

AFAIK one dose is used on adults vs a course of 3 pediatric, but I can find no data on whether it is a different amount or just one dose of the pediatric.

HiB is still in short supply, and convincing them to give it to an adult may be difficult.

HiB is often mixed with some other pediatrics; is there anything in the others generally contraindicated for adults?

[temsmedic]

Originally Posted by Snaquebite

Here's an information paper my parent company released today. while not a medical company, they make probably the best respirators and SCBA products around.

[ATTACH]Info Paper[/ATTACH]

Since you work for that company, I'd like to see what your thoughts are on using something like the 3M Half Facepiece respirator. I strongly suspect that any of the standard hospital type masks, within minutes, are so saturated with water that the only way anyone inhales is from around the sides of the mask. The tiny exhalation port on some of the masks is so small, I suspect it isn't much better.


http://solutions.3m.com/wps/portal/3...beF3RH7CD92Ngl

These masks aren't certified for medical use, but if they fit well, I suspect that they are probably better than a saturated mask. They would certainly be more likely to be used. They may also still be found locally.

Also, it is important to remember that you'll need some dorky safety glasses. If the virus containing particle hits the mucous membranes of the eye, you'll be infected also.

[Snaquebite]

I work for the Ballistics side of the house for MSA (Paraclete) so can't offer up much on your question. I did forward it to one of our reps in that department.