Historic drought to bring higher food prices, experts say

[Flagg]

Originally Posted by Sarski

Good thing we are not "the rest of the world," though I have no doubt the current POTUS would love to level the playing field, and his actions and policies are such that instead of raising the standards higher in those other countries, he would rather see fit to lower ours to the level of those dirt poor Chinese you mention.

As for the drought:

We could weather a drought and correlating spike in food prices if everything else was in check; it wouldn't be so bad if it were not so bad.

But eventually the drought will come to an end. If we have learned anything from fluctuating oil prices, that is that food and commodities in general will not revert back to lower prices when that drought is over.

Yeah I think the monetary and fiscal silliness of recent years that has contributed to the rise in energy/gold prices has also contributed to the rise in food prices.

This is one of those things that's hard to come by in open source.....which is mixing the fields of finance/economics with agriculture and defense/security analysis.

Surely if you put together a couple folks with a really good understanding of finance/economics, with a couple folks who have a strong strategic understanding of agriculture and water use around the world, and throw in a couple folks with hands on experience(like on this forum) in all the flavors of failed/failing/challenged nations(along with a good selection of beer and whiskey) surely they'd be able to draw a pretty accurate picture of the next likely Bangladesh, Biafra, Ethiopia, Somalia, North Korea when it comes to food/famine/instability.

[Flagg]

Originally Posted by TOMAHAWK9521

Another issue with the drought is the lack of feed for livestock owners out here in Rocky Mtn states. An old outfitter friend is getting very nervous at the lack of available hay to be found out in these parts. The grass on his property is completely fried from the hot dry summer we're having so he can't put his animals out to graze. If it gets much worse he may be forced to do the humane thing and put down all his horses and mules.

I spoke with other horse owners/breeders on the front range and they too have been searching for grass/hay as far north as Canada with no idea if they'll ever get the feed for their horses in time. The prices for hay are staggeringly high as it is and those who have a extra hay are understandably not letting it go for the time being.

VERY sorry to hear that.

One of the things I've been reading up on is that historically when it comes to food/feed it's almost always just a local/regional crisis.......not really a global shortage......just unfortunate examples like the one your friend is facing.....I'm sure there's an excess for him somewhere........it's just too bloody far away making it uneconomic for him or logistically/politically impossible for others.

[Flagg]

Originally Posted by GratefulCitizen

Plenty of money sitting on the sidelines doing nothing.
Investing in business is unwise given the uncertainty.

Combine this with rising food prices and ridiculously cheap credit...
You've got prime conditions to inflate a bubble.

AGREED on the plenty of money on the sidelines.

We actually got out of a farm partnership last year when prices peaked for us down here.

And we are keen to re-enter the industry...someday...when the game of Monopoly is rebooted, leveled, and is no longer unnecessarily fiddled with.

So we sit on the sidelines as well watching and waiting like a buzzard.

[Dozer523]

Originally Posted by Sarski

. . . it wouldn't be so bad if it were not so bad.

That's for sure.

Originally Posted by Flagg

Yeah I think the monetary and fiscal silliness of recent years that has contributed to the rise in energy/gold prices has also contributed to the rise in food prices.

This is one of those things that's hard to come by in open source.....which is mixing the fields of finance/economics with agriculture and defense/security analysis.

Surely if you put together a couple folks with a really good understanding of finance/economics, with a couple folks who have a strong strategic understanding of agriculture and water use around the world, and throw in a couple folks with hands on experience(like on this forum) in all the flavors of failed/failing/challenged nations(along with a good selection of beer and whiskey) surely they'd be able to draw a pretty accurate picture of the next likely Bangladesh, Biafra, Ethiopia, Somalia, North Korea when it comes to food/famine/instability.

Really what we need to do is put together a team that already understands the direction this country is headed, and what is needed to turn it around, and luckily for us there are plenty of them out there.

We haven't the time nor endurance to dick around with social experiments in drawing out what we will look like in making comparisons to other countries that are already down the shitter.

[Flagg]

Originally Posted by Sarski

Really what we need to do is put together a team that already understands the direction this country is headed, and what is needed to turn it around, and luckily for us there are plenty of them out there.

We haven't the time nor endurance to dick around with social experiments in drawing out what we will look like in making comparisons to other countries that are already down the shitter.

I agree with your point in regard to the US politically and the fact there are a LOT of folks out there who could effect real positive change.

Where I think I'd disagree is on campaign finance polluting it and preventing many/most of the good folks from getting into the positions they need to be.

To be a bit clearer on my point of an SME "mashup" being able to predict the next crisis......maybe I could use East Africa as an example.

If you put a few guys from ODAs with a wealth of experience in East Africa , an Ag/farming specialist who know the region, someone who knows how the Nile river system works, someone who knows forestry and the Mau forest, a regionally focused economist, a regional specific meteorologist, a demographer, and a career diplomat or spook with regional time in service, my guess is they'd be able to figure out plus or minus 12 months when a war will cook off, or a famine, or a revolution, or ??


I guess the point I was trying to make is that while a lot of those individual SMEs can be found if you look hard enough on the net or in person.....getting them all together in the same room seems limited largely to national intelligence services as far as I can tell.


Lots of folks looking at change in Egypt possibly resulting in a future showdown with Israel....but we are not hearing anything about the real risk of future conflict over Nile River resources as nations collide.....maybe the next inevitable East African drought/famine could cascade into a regional war over water.

Sorry for going off topic or around in circles.....but the thread topic of drought and higher food prices has me thinking about what the 2nd, 3rd, 4th order effects might very realistically be.

Originally Posted by Flagg

Where I think I'd disagree is on campaign finance polluting it and preventing many/most of the good folks from getting into the positions they need to be.

To be a bit clearer on my point of an SME "mashup" being able to predict the next crisis......maybe I could use East Africa as an example.

If you put a few guys from ODAs with a wealth of experience in East Africa , an Ag/farming specialist who know the region, someone who knows how the Nile river system works, someone who knows forestry and the Mau forest, a regionally focused economist, a regional specific meteorologist, a demographer, and a career diplomat or spook with regional time in service, my guess is they'd be able to figure out plus or minus 12 months when a war will cook off, or a famine, or a revolution, or ??

That is already done, and very closely monitored globaly. In fact there isn't much guessing involved, IMO. You don't have to guess when a war will break out, or famine or anything. The lines in the sand are drawn. Merely understanding those lines, when and where to cross them and you have one or all of those. The countries that are unstable and ready to cook off are more at risk, and a huge difference in comparison from the USA, again IMO.

I guess the point I was trying to make is that while a lot of those individual SMEs can be found if you look hard enough on the net or in person.....getting them all together in the same room seems limited largely to national intelligence services as far as I can tell.

I think it is more multi-level, intelligence services being one portion.

Lots of folks looking at change in Egypt possibly resulting in a future showdown with Israel....but we are not hearing anything about the real risk of future conflict over Nile River resources as nations collide.....maybe the next inevitable East African drought/famine could cascade into a regional war over water.

I think there are a lot more pressing issues in that region, far beyond Egypt and the Nile river.

Sorry for going off topic or around in circles.....but the thread topic of drought and higher food prices has me thinking about what the 2nd, 3rd, 4th order effects might very realistically be.

It is simple, should the drought go on long enough, food prices will continue to climb...the last figures I heard were in the order of 3-4%, and slightly higher in restaurants. This expected in the next 5 or so months. Beyond that food and water will be brought into regions that cannot sustain their own, much like the current system in use today, which brings food and water into stores. The biggest hit will be to agriculture to include farming and livestock, and those in that business. That will comeback. Not the first droughts this country has faced. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dust_Bowl

A very different solution to that which second and third world countries would utilize. I don't think we would be close to any kind of "Mad Max" apocolypse, which seems to me something that you might be trying to work into the equation. Anyways, just my own thoughts and observations.

[echoes]

Originally Posted by Gypsy

Agree.

I'm ready to move to Alaska.

Gypsy,

Hear ya loud and clear! Funny, escaping my town of residence in AZ where it got up to 125 last summer, to my temporary stop in T-Town...where it has been the hottest place in the US for the last three days...

Can only imagine the strength and mental fortitude Our brave soldiers must posses to work in even hotter temps in the ME.

Am trying to buy local, freshly grown produce when possible, to try and help out the little guys in these parts who are struggling.

Holly

[Flagg]

Originally Posted by Sarski

That is already done, and very closely monitored globaly. In fact there isn't much guessing involved, IMO. You don't have to guess when a war will break out, or famine or anything. The lines in the sand are drawn. Merely understanding those lines, when and where to cross them and you have one or all of those. The countries that are unstable and ready to cook off are more at risk, and a huge difference in comparison from the USA, again IMO.

I guess I'm thinking about 2nd, 3rd, 4th order effects of what happens THERE, impacting on what happens HERE(US, NZ, wealthy west, etc)


I think it is more multi-level, intelligence services being one portion.

I take that point on board........it's just a shame it's so hard to find multifaceted analysis in the public domain...maybe there's simply not be enough money in it for marketing such analysis to the general public.

I think there are a lot more pressing issues in that region, far beyond Egypt and the Nile river.

I don't disagree, I was just using it as an example of how we could see conflict coming from a less than commonly expected direction, or with possibly little known or covered root causes.

It is simple, should the drought go on long enough, food prices will continue to climb...the last figures I heard were in the order of 3-4%, and slightly higher in restaurants. This expected in the next 5 or so months. Beyond that food and water will be brought into regions that cannot sustain their own, much like the current system in use today, which brings food and water into stores. The biggest hit will be to agriculture to include farming and livestock, and those in that business. That will comeback. Not the first droughts this country has faced. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dust_Bowl

I couldn't agree more....I would think any truly substantial crisis that involves a modern country like the US/NZ/Aus/Canada/etc would likely see some considerable problems, but an effective response is pretty close to being guaranteed(eventually). I believe those key points of difference between wealthy western nations and the developing world when it comes to crisis could be the difference between success and failure. I've seen that up close and personal with our two major local earthquakes in the last two years...especially when compared with Haiti's


A very different solution to that which second and third world countries would utilize. I don't think we would be close to any kind of "Mad Max" apocolypse, which seems to me something that you might be trying to work into the equation. Anyways, just my own thoughts and observations.

Was there something I wrote that led you to believe I'm thinking Mad Max/apocalypse type crisis is in the future for the wealthy western nations?

I don't believe I did. If I did, I apologize.

I'm not a believer in an apocalypse for the wealthy west....discomfort....possibly quite severe discomfort for some.....but Cormac McCarthy's The Road is the farthest thing from my mind.

The developing world and the countries where the % of wages spent on food is the highest.....I reckon it could quite quite nasty.

My thoughts are the same as I posted earlier.......if food prices inflate(net of wage inflation) 50% in our world(where we spend on average about 12% of wages)....people complain......if food prices inflate 50% in their world(where they spend on average over 50% of wages)...people die...and get all stabby.

I agree that drought related food price inflation probably isn't going to be huge, but what about when you include the fiscal/monetary crisis related food price inflation and Peak Cheap Oil related food price inflation(where energy price rises due to fiscal/monetary reasons as well as tighter supply demand)?

Isn't it possible, maybe even likely, we could see a good couple of years with 10-20+% food price inflation(as we already have seen in a number of places over the past decade)?

Events in places like Bangladesh, Biafra, Ethiopia, North Korea, and Madagascar when it comes to famine haven't really effected the wealthy west in a noticeable way before.

Isn't it possible, maybe increasingly likely, that while the West may feel only some limited direct discomfort from rising food prices, there could be an indirect but substantial impact on the wealthy west?

I'm thinking instead of 1 Biafra or 1 Ethiopia, maybe we might see a couple larger developing world famines or intolerably high food price inflation.

Didn't food prices and the downstream effect on land prices and foreign sales play a significant factor in the unrest and coup in Madagascar?

What if those things happen to countries the US views as strategic regional partners?

I hope I'm being clear?

[Destrier]

Our local dairy farmers are looking at thinning their herds early. They know they cannot feed them here in Western, NY through the entire winter. I went to the Amish- / Mennonite farmers and found hay but I bought early ($2.50 per bale), none left from the local community now and my neighbors are very concerned. The main source through first cuttings has been giving his buyers 20-30 bales at a time. Not looking good. I am already reducing my hay trying to make what I have last, but I am almost out of grazing land. 412 bales left. Be interested to see what this falls auction prices will be on hay.

Originally Posted by Destrier

Our local dairy farmers are looking at thinning their herds early. They know they cannot feed them here in Western, NY through the entire winter. I went to the Amish- / Mennonite farmers and found hay but I bought early ($2.50 per bale), none left from the local community now and my neighbors are very concerned. The main source through first cuttings has been giving his buyers 20-30 bales at a time. Not looking good. I am already reducing my hay trying to make what I have last, but I am almost out of grazing land. 412 bales left. Be interested to see what this falls auction prices will be on hay.

QP Destrier, where are you in upstate? Have you tried to do a search on craigslist.com? I did a search around Buffalo also Elmira and Rochester, and there are a few folks selling hay. I am not sure of the quality, or the type you need, but it is a start. Might be some in the more rural areas as well.

If you go to craigslist.com and select New York, then the closest cities and perhaps work your way out? you will want to look under "For Sale" and then select "Farm and Garden." In the top search field enter "hay" or "hay for sale" and you will get some results.

http://elmira.craigslist.org/search/...inAsk=&maxAsk=

http://buffalo.craigslist.org/search...inAsk=&maxAsk=

http://rochester.craigslist.org/sear...inAsk=&maxAsk=

ETA: When I was growing up, we used to buy fresh milk from one of the dairy farms in Elmira, I think it was Elmira, so long ago. The owners had a hay loft we would jump from, and a stream that we caught fresh trout out of. I can't remember the name, although my older sister knows it.

Originally Posted by Flagg

Entire post...

No apologies needed. It just seems to me that in comparing what might happen in the US, to what has already happened in other countries (third world) is a stretch, and those same events, even if they were identical are not going to hurt the US in the long run. There are a huge difference in resources and coping mechanisims involved and at our disposal vs. those found in other countries. Those other countries will suffer more and more under your premise because basically everyone will slide down a notch or two, or five on the totem pole (the scale will slide downward, and relatively everyone will slide down in relation to everyone else, but those at the top will still be at the top, the weathy west as you call it).

The apocolypse scenario I refer to would be indicative of the needed events to play out here in the US for there to be an equal comparison, again IMO. A comparison that you are making, at least that is how I read your posts.

I think there is a fundamental difference in how we view this, that's all. But If I could offer a comparison:

Suppose I had $300. And, all things being equal, I gave $100 to a 60 year old, $100 to a 20 year old, and $100 to a 10 year old. All things being equal, the results would be the same. But there is no way all things are equal in this situation.

Anyways, if it were to get really bad, then here is what would happen here in the US, at least for about the first 5 or so years:

Folks would stop paying their cable tv bill.
To save electricity all cloths would be hung out to dry.
Folks would stop eating out.
Folks would stop paying internet bill.
They would stop paying auto insurance and take their chances on the road.
They would put off major purchases.
They would eat more rice and beans.
They would start eating the squirrels and ducks/racoons etc., that live around them.
They would get rid of their cell phones, and maybe have a cheap land line.
Folks would use less toilet paper.
Those that buy them would not buy lotto tickets.
Cigarettes and Alchohol would become ultra luxurey items.

That would free up around $200-300+ per month, and that would be "roughing it" here in the US.

We already import much food from the rest of the world...oranges from Brazil and Mexico, fish from Vietnam, Rice from Thailand...that would probably increase in volume. Additionally, strong allies tend to stay that way, and come to eachothers aide. If it were really, really, really bad, I would expect to see other countries comming to the aide of the USA, and equally an increased number of citizens leaving the USA to "survive" in some of those other countries.

[Destrier]

If you look on craigslist you will already see hay at $4 to 5+ per bale and rising. That's high at this time of year. We are just seeing second cuttings and first cuttings are already at raised prices. We usually pay 2 maybe 3 per bale, heck we saw 5 dollars at this springs auction and thought that was high.. I am good for now, my neighbors are the ones that are looking weak. The Amish to my North right next to lake Ontario actually got rain, are managing a weak third cuttings. Only reason I got any, is they got some rain from the storms that went out across Lake Ontario.

Originally Posted by Destrier

If you look on craigslist you will already see hay at $4 to 5+ per bale and rising. That's high at this time of year. We are just seeing second cuttings and first cuttings are already at raised prices. We usually pay 2 maybe 3 per bale, heck we saw 5 dollars at this springs auction and thought that was high.. I am good for now, my neighbors are the ones that are looking weak. The Amish to my North right next to lake Ontario actually got rain, are managing a weak third cuttings. Only reason I got any, is they got some rain from the storms that went out across Lake Ontario.

I saw those prices. In comparison to the Dallas/Fort Worth area the prices here are $4-$8 (mostly the upper range), alfalfa around $13 for square bales. Many don't list the cutting now, but about two or three weeks ago there were a lot of second cuttings listed.

[Stargazer]

I caught the end of a discussion on Fox Business where they were talking about the price of corn being up 60% already and expected to climb even higher. They also mentioned how the high cost and supply is negatively impacting farmers / ranchers with livestock. Producers are suggesting reducing ethanol requirement which would lower the cost of corn, but the folks in oil say it will drive up gas prices....