Thanks for the kind words Pericles.
A few things are developing that may shake things up in the Ukraine in the next 6 months.
PRESENT DAY
Assad’s position is more secure, and Russian ground forces commitments in Syria are diminished, while ISIS/ISIL is collapsing.
Both oil and natural gas prices have been on the rise in the past few months.
Minsk II ceasefire violations are ongoing but low intensity, and the lines are fairly static.
The U.S has also now authorized sales of arms to Ukraine, and sniper rifles and anti-tank missiles are expected to be on the way.
A number of assassinations in Kiev of opponents to Russia have occurred in recent months.
FEBRUARY
The U.S. Treasury Department will be releasing two reports on sanctions against Russia in February. This may lead to further sanctions, possibly targeting sovereign debt as well as oligarchs that Putin relies on.
MARCH
The Russian federal elections are in March. A Putin win is an almost sure bet, unless sanctions somehow scare the oligarchs into pulling support for Putin. This seems very unlikely to me. I expect that Putin will continue to adapt his strategy to support oligarch wealth protection and insulating Russia’s economy and her elite from the impact of Western sanctions. This strategy however, while seemingly defensive and reactive, will potentially open the door to Putin having more offensive maneuvering room in regards the Ukraine conflict.
APRIL
If Putin is secure in his presidency post-election (or perhaps even pre-election...), and enough supporting factors are present (ie: there are no other major Russian military commitments, oil and gas prices continue to rise and Putin is able to fend off the impact of sanctions through any combination of preventing new sanctions, loop-holing and end-running current sanctions, and reducing exposures through increased trade with Asia and the Middle East) then we may see a renewed intensification of the conflict.
I’m watching for the trigger event that will “justify” sudden action from Russia, or alternatively a slow and deniable creeping intensification.
Spring is coming...
