A few more thoughts and sources on the Ukraine conflict, picking up from the themes discussed here.
On the topic of the Ukraine as a strategic buffer for Russia:
Business Insider.com - 10 Maps That Explain Russia's Strategy.
http://www.businessinsider.com/10-ma...t-landlocked-1
On the Ukraine conflict and Russia's dependence on oil revenue:
Ukraine timeline data
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-18010123
Historical crude oil price data
http://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crud...-history-chart
Observations:
February, 2014
- Crude oil selling for about $107.30 - prices are good, keeping Russia in the green.
- Security forces in Ukraine's Russia-friendly government (led by President Yanukovych) kill 77 pro-western demonstrators
- Things totally fall apart and the Ukrainian President Yanukovych flees......to Russia.
March, 2014
- Crude oil selling for about $105.33 - prices still good, keeping Russia in the green
- Russia invades Ukraine, seizes Crimea, and provides support to pro-Russian Ukrainian separatists.
- Ukraine conflict expands and intensifies to civil war.
July - August, 2014
- Oil prices still stable through July and August, averaging at around $100.98 and $100.80 respectively.
- Malaysian airliner shot down over separatist held territory in July, killing 298 people.
- Russian "aid" convoys enter Ukraine without Ukrainian authorization.
- Peacemaking attempts are ineffective.
- Russia continuing activity in Eastern Ukraine.
September, 2014 - January, 2015
- Oil prices plummet dramatically from the $100+ mark to $93.81 in September, continuing freefall to $50.08 by January, 2015
- September - Government signs Minsk peace plan ceasefire with pro-Russian leaders in eastern Ukraine. The two separatist regions agree to hold local elections under
Ukrainian law in December.
- September through November - Initial cease-fire repeatedly violated before breaking down completely. NATO confirms Russian troops and heavy military equipment entering eastern Ukraine.
- October - Parliamentary elections produce convincing majority for pro-Western parties, which begin process of forming a new coalition led by Prime Minster Arseny Yatseniuk.
February, 2015
- Oil now holding at around $52.03, half of what it was when the conflict started.
- New ceasefire terms are brokered by France and Germany, which pro-Russian separatists agree to.
March, 2015 to Present
- Oil prices continue to hold somewhere in the range of $62.06 and as low as $29.44, selling in July, 2017 at around $46.37.
- Conflict continues at a much lower level of intensity.
I'll be the first to say that correlation does not equal causation. But it certainly doesn't disprove it either. When oil prices weaken, so does Russia.
The Economist on the more current 2017 state of affairs:
"Unable to offer much of a future, the separatists are cultivating the symbols of the Soviet past. On May 11th, they marked the third anniversary of their “republic” with a Soviet-style march. A voice boomed from loudspeakers: “We greet this day with joy and pride for a glorious past and in confidence for a peaceful and happy future.” Workers with balloons and Soviet flags marched in columns along Lenin Prospect. Yet keeping up a Soviet veneer may not be easy without jobs, particularly as industrial production plummets.
However disillusioned most people in Donetsk feel with the “Russian spring”, few believe that the territory could ever be reincorporated into Ukraine. "
More here:
https://www.economist.com/news/europ...ussia-are-both