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Originally Posted by Penn
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I wrote this one for US Army TRADOC Mad Scientist Initiative:
https://madsciblog.tradoc.army.mil/2...onment-part-1/
There is risk of China pulling off a hybrid Falklands/Grenada scenario.
How much? Probably very little at the moment, but could rise quickly.
It’s worth mentioning CCP/PLA’s primary concern will likely be regime continuity.
If domestic impact is far more serious than disclosed, and the CCP/PLA finds itself under increasing pressure, than an obvious option is activating nationalism and externalising the problem.
For the same reasons the Argentine Junta invaded the Falklands, but with the same outcome as US action in Grenada.
But with fewer rounds expended.
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Energy prices are something to pay very close attention to.
Low energy prices reinforces a Russia/Iranian nexus, with Venezuela too broke and distracted internally to participate as an effective partner.
Same with other energy producers, particularly high cost ones, ripe for destabilisation by Russia/Iran.
If the current energy price holds, Russia may have a year at most, before it will get fiscally very ugly. And that includes burning its sovereign wealth fund.
I could easily imagine Russia and Iran giving their respective UW forces a hunting license to give energy producers as much of a haircut as possible.
A mate working in Mozambique told me Wagner Group got smacked pretty hard recently there.
And I doubt it’s a coincidence that Mozambique has some truly enormous energy projects underway.