[nmap]

Africa faces a problem called environmental overshoot. A book, circa the 1980's, titled "Overshoot" and written by Catton speaks to the problem. One can get some idea of the likely outcome of the situation by looking at the fate of the reindeer on St. Matthew's Island. In the case of Africa, aid merely extends and exacerbates the problem of overshoot.

The underlying problem was and is exponential growth. As long as a population continues growing, it will ultimately outgrow the ability of the environment to sustain it. The correction among species other than people invariably involves a massive dieoff; in the case of the reindeer mentioned above, population went from around 50, to 6,000 - and then back to 50.

Can innovation change the pattern? If the world taught Africa better ways to farm, would that solve the problem? I think not, though I realize my view will be in a minority. For the last 60 years or so, the fruits of the U.S. Agriculture Department's Green Revolution have supplied the world with cheap and abundant food. Notice that global population increased over that time from about 2 billion to the present 6.5 billion. If the foundation of the Green Revolution changes, the implications for the global population, as well as the geopolitical situation, become rather interesting - because the rest of the world continues increasing its population too. So far, our innovations - the Green Revolution - have permitted us to avoid the consequences. Will new innovations continue to stave off Malthus' predictions? I doubt it; but I guess we'll find out in the next 25 years or so.