Jeb actually ruled out running in 2008 two weeks ago, but I was hung over and missed the report. As for whether we do "royal families and dynasties and what not," but for Sirhan Sirhan, we would have had two brothers running for President eight years apart just a couple of generations ago. Teddy remained a viable national figure until the 1980s, and but for her crappy campaign, Bobby's daughter Kathleen Kennedy Townsend would be the sitting Governor of Maryland and a rising star in the Democratic Party.
Bush will be unable to run for reelection in 2008. In the last elections where there was no incumbent President running for reelection - 1960, 1968, 1988 and 2000 - the Vice President ran.
The last elections where neither a sitting President or VP was a candidate were 1952 and 1928. In 1952, Gen. Eisenhower defeated Gov. Adlai Stevenson of Illinois. In 1928, former Commerce Secretary Herbert Hoover defeated Gov. Al Smith of New York.
The 1952 election was unusual in that Truman initially ran for reelection, but lost to Estes Kefauver in the New Hampshire primary. The only recent comparison would be to Sen. Eugene McCarthy's challenge to LBJ, when McCarthy came in second in New Hampshire. Both cases involved a wartime President unpopular with his party. Both also had won election to the presidency after serving as veep to a popular President who died in office. Thus, perhaps, the fluke was not 1952 and 1968, but 1948 and 1964, when Truman and LBJ won the presidency without having become their party's consensus leaders.
Thus, the last election where the President did not or could not seek reelection and the Vice President was not his successor was 1928. Coolidge had announced in 1927 his intention to not run for reelection. Vice President Charles Dawes (who had been Coolidge's third or fourth choice for a running mate in 1924) barely talked to his own boss, and apparently never even considered seeking the nod to succeed him. He favored Gov. Frank Lowden of Illinois, but Hoover got the nod. President Coolidge actively opposed putting Dawes in the Vice President spot again.
So, with Bush unable to run and Cheney unwilling/unlikely to run (I suppose he could change his mind), and with the Democratic Party likely looking at disarray and potentially a major fight between its Deaniac and DLC wings, this is the most wide-open race since 1928.
Our last 12 elections:
1960: Sitting VP (and former Senator) against Senator: Senator wins
1964: Sitting President (and former Senator) against Senator: Senator loses
1968: Sitting VP (and former Senator) against former VP: former VP wins
1972: Sitting President (and former Senator) against Senator: Senator loses
1976: Sitting President against Governor: Governor wins
1980: Sitting President against Governor: Governor wins
1984: Sitting President against Senator (and former VP): Senator loses
1988: Sitting VP against Governor: Governor loses
1992: Sitting President against Governor: Governor wins
1996: Sitting President against Senator: Senator loses
2000: Sitting VP against Governor: Governor wins
2004: Sitting President against Senator: Senator loses
What does this tell us? Possibly nothing, except that no sitting Senator has won since Kennedy, and the only former Senators to win (Johnson, Nixon) had been President or Vice President in the interim. This doesn't help McCain's chances, unless, perhaps, Cheney were to resign and Bush were to appoint McCain in his place.
There does seem to be a preference for governors, presidents and vice presidents. Partly, this reflects a preference for people with executive leadership experience. That was certainly a Kerry weakness. Partly, it reflects the fact that the executive leaders tend to be more consistently involved in the nuts and bolts of politicking, especially building and maintaining party organizations, than legislators.
So, barring the scenario above of Bush appointing an heir apparent in Cheney's place (which is a remote possibility but is unlikely to be McCain), the strongest candidates are:
- George Allen, Jr. - Senator, former Governor; son of a legendary NFL coach; boyish charm; from a large Southern state
- Jeb Bush - Governor of a major state; son and brother of Presidents; will maintain Wahhabi/Zionist control of the American regime
- Rudy Giuliani - Former mayor of a city larger than most states; immensely popular; has a number of minuses, though
- Bill Owens - Governor of Colorado
- George Pataki - Governor of New York; a long-shot given his social views (also a problem for Rudy)
- Colin Powell - Secretary of State, former CJCS; also a long-shot given his social views
- Tom Ridge - Secretary of Homeland Security; former Governor of Pennsylvania
- Tommy Thompson - Secretary of HHS; former Governor of Wisconsin
Sen. McCain is out there, as is Sen. Bill Frist and a few others, but I wouldn't bet on him. Gov. Schwarzenegger remains the darkest of dark horses. Besides that whole amending the Constitution hurdle, he also has the social liberalism thing. And there is only a slim chance that he could bring California's electoral votes with him.