Team Selection, Scenario One
 

A new scenario, upon request and after watching the American Blackout TV show (admittedly a flawed presentation).

The balloon has gone up, the Feds are declaring martial law, shutting down the banks and infrastructure, and you are beating feet while heading to your bug out location or holing up at home.

You are given twelve hours advance warning of the impending martial law enforcement. You are able to make a shopping run (within your cash on hand) and hunker down at home, or alternately, load up your vehicle with everything you can afford on your "wish list", and gas up on the way out of town. So if you have properly prepared, you should be fairly well stocked. Remember though. One year's food supply for a family of four drops to six months worth with four additions to your group. The duration of the state of emergency and the degree of outside support is uncertain. It may last a year or more, but it will be at least four weeks.

While we can cover last minute what to buy and what to bring lists again, the intent of this thread is whether you contact additional personnel to come with you or try and rough it out alone.

Obviously, your immediate family is going to stay/go with you.

Who do you bring (or invite to your home to ride the storm out) or collect on the way?

What criteria do you use to select them? Is there some sort of selection and assessment process? Or will you take their word for it?

Do you believe that you will be better off alone or with additional team members?

Does anyone think they would prefer to go it solo, with no family or friends?

If you are inviting others to join you, do they have their own supplies, or are you planning to provide for them?

Will you recruit people with useful skills? What if they are travelling with their families? What if they are travelling with their families and have few, if any resources with them? A physician could be handy to have. One with a wife and seven kids and little else may not, unless you are exceedingly well-prepared.

What would you consider the minimum number of people you need to do the chores and provide security for your group? Have you considered the skills you might need in your group? What is the maximum number you think you can provide for?

Will you try and feed the people you encounter along the way, or your neighbors, if you stay home? How about strangers you encounter? If they have kids?

No right or wrong answers, as long as you can justify your decisions.

We will examine a couple of additional scenarios, if this is well-received.

Thanks!

TR

Wow ... This is going to be good.

I can say, with at least 12 hours notice, I would make a couple of attempts of people whom I know and trust to attempt a meet/link up and travel together. They of course would be bringing to the plate various skills and have in their own way(s) prepped for just such a scenario.

If I was unable to get into contact with them, I would be cautious and selective on who I brought into my area. General aptitudes I would want someone to have would be, the ability to survive in the out of doors (some family who was able to get out of town just in time and the only time they've ever seen an animal up close was when they went on a trip to the zoo wouldn't cut it), someone who is prior (or AD) military would be a huge plus. This would instill in the fact that they know some semblance of order, discipline and team work. That last one, Team Work, being the most compelling aptitude. Do they know what true team work is, or are they more prone to rock the boat and be an antagonist?

As far as individual skills would go, yes, having someone with medical skills would be huge. MDs, DDSs, heck even a Psychiatrist (they have an MD) would be top notch. An electrician and a mechanic would rank near the top as well. Anyone with any type of vocational type training would be beneficial as well.

If I were to meet, anyone without those types of qualifications, I don't think I'd be too inclined to bring them in.
"What is it that you do?"
"I was a secretary in a legal office."
"Okay, thank you. Best of luck to you."

The big thing would be trust. Can you trust the people whom you've connected up with? Are they the type to turn on you when they feel the time would be right? Being a judge of character would be the biggest thing I think we'd all have to rely on in a scenario like this.

I'm screwed
 

I'm screwed.

I'd be dragging along four screamers to begin with.

Unless, unless - there is a young unattached 18D and an 18B in the area that wants to throw in with us. You'd have to bring your own MRE's.

I'll have to ride it out in place and make sure the neighbors are well armed and organized. Best guess on my block is 50% active or retired - mostly retired.

Random "Prepper issue" thoughts
 

I saw the show as well, and as it is not really related, it did bring up some previous thoughts I had to these scenarios. (NOT IN ANY WAY A "PREPPER")

I think the reality of the whole "bug out vs bunker down" scenario is solely based on location. Some thoughts from my personal experience of a few minor disasters.

One point that show made which was pretty good to the new trend of "American peppers" is that if you spend a lot of time setting up your "bug out location" in the open, people are likely to notice. It especially highlights the aspects of considering the remoteness of the site and any tactical considerations. If it has neighbors at all, it will not work. If it can be seen, it likely will not work. Unless you can somehow work with your neighbors. That also opens the door to the trust issues as well, whom will they tell and are they useful at all?

Another issue: Travel to a "bug out"...

When I was in DC area during the earthquake (last year?) I was maybe 10 miles from home and completely unable to drive, let alone move my car for hours. I ended up walking home. Some roads remained locked up for a few days afterwards from abandoned cars. It took that moment to dawn on me that getting out of a city area like that is pretty much impossible in a car or truck in ANY disaster or otherwise. This was also not IN the city but more outside getting closer to Baltimore. On foot or maybe a motorcycle/bicycle would be the only option to escape.

Then to consider how far do you have to go and can you sustain that trek? Having good maps would be a serious consideration with preplanned routes and contingency routes.

During the huge snow blizzard that hit DC and Baltimore a few years before the quake, I was locked in a third floor apartment with my newborn daughter and wife. Outside was a minor 2 1/2 to 3 feet of snow, but continuous fall. Surprise, MD did not own any snow plows and nor did base. The roads would not be plowed at all for two weeks. Again, travel was pretty much impossible unless you had a large truck with good Four wheel. Even so, the road was littered with buried cars and people that got ten feet and then got stuck. For that occasion I had to ruck to the Grocery store to bring back supplies. Pretty close to the reality of everything shutting down scenario. Even that base closed. Everyone was un-prepared including the Army and the government, go figure. (I waited in line for 6 hours to get a snow shovel, should have known better, but really had zero expectation of things getting that bad. After 6 hours people physically started to beat each other just for the chance to just buy one lousy Chinese snow shovel...)

Rally point, Regrouping with family if separated:

After the immediate effects of what could be considered an absolutely minor quake, there was no Comms at all available. No land line, no Cell, nothing...(Maybe Ham or CB, but not available to me at the time) So Comms are a serious issue if there was not any temp EMP effects from whatever may have happened. Along with that the logistics of power. (Batterys, hand crank, generator, wind, solar, etc.)


To Travel with others/Bunker down/Bug out

TR, you addressed some excellent questions. One thought that really lingers in my mind is that even if you are prepared to some extent, why would anyone WANT to travel with you? There would be some people skills involved beyond whatever tactical mindset a person in need of a fellow traveler/help may have.

As military I can see that we might see things as looking for other useful survivalist people or other military and vets. However, as the "in between" there may be those that cannot avoid the natural point of breaking to the dog eat dog mentality. I would think that it would not take long for the "others" I guess to start feeling the need to attack anyone for their own various needs of food/water/shelter.

(perhaps a selection is necessary without proven credentials. How do you know how far you can trust a person before they brake and become a selfish beast to your own misery?)

So with that, the approach of, "I need your help" seems like it would be a careful psychology and perhaps barter. It would require somehow being sure to build that trust and report but also making sure there is something there for both the parties in the short and long run. Which I understand is a scenario right up there for a SF qualified and experienced soldier. Just maybe not as much as the regulars out there. My point is, that if you needed to bring more people or even another person, you would need to be a "people person" or at least good at understanding how to negotiate carefully through situations when people suddenly shift from people to animal. Those "animals" could also be family and friends. Dealing with Irrationality with people you care about sucks.


(And as the show addressed, don't bring your daughters Boyfriend...That kid will get you killed. ;) )

Excellent scenario. Involves many complicated questions/decisions. I will prepare a response.

You just gave me a great idea with this thread......
 

Just wait until I get past a few drafts in my head......;)

In 12 hours, I can be 400 miles into Mexico...

Land, grain and livestock
 

With are family farms we have housing and food for up to 200+ and Know all the farmers from I 94 to the Mississippi river. The county sheriff is are next door neighbor. We kill 20 to 30 deer every Nov. so we all have guns and know how to use them.

last deer hunting we had 32 hunters, last 4th of July we hosted 95 family members at are farm for 3 to 4 days. Land, Grain, Fuel, Water and Livestock we have plenty of.

I'm screwed. Every jackwagon along the Front Range is going to clog up the roadways as they attempt to escape to that mythical safe haven called the Rocky Mountains. I'll just stay here and do my utmost to mobilize the neighborhood and ride it out. We have some decent fields of fire between here and I-25, as well as N,E, and S.

I hope this helps add to the discussion.

Most people should make a plan for the most likely, and then the most dangerous disasters that they face.

From the plans, you should be able to determine the skills you need, if any. For example, you can’t stand watch 24/7 alone, and few of us alone have adequate skills in tactics, medicine, communications, intelligence, mechanical, electrical, plumbing, construction and carpentry, automotive repair, hunting, farming, gardening, foraging, livestock, cooking, etc. What skills do you need help with? How long would it take you to acquire them for an existing member, versus bringing in an outsider? The most skilled person in the world may be a total ass, and unable to get along with anyone. How do you quickly determine that?

I would suggest looking to your family living locally first for these skills since you know them better, and some of them may be planning on coming to you (or leaving with you) anyway.

That should cause you to start thinking about the people you trust and if any of them might have what you need and be interested. I would say that, for OPSEC reasons, it might be best to talk around the topic of disaster preparation with those you might be considering rather than asking outright or putting an ad in the paper.

If they have their own commodities (water, food, fuel, etc.), that is great. If not, before the crisis, you can try and steer them toward preparing, little by little. If they refuse, but you still need them, then you are going to have to prepare for them with your own supplies.

Ideally, with 12 hours notice, you should start out with most of the members and gear you need.

Only you can determine if you have the resources and needs to accept a new member. Do you accept children? Your daughter’s boyfriend? Pets? Kardashians?

If you are going to stay home and bug-in, you need to develop good communications and hopefully plans with your neighbors, because if there is a serious threat, and you haven’t, you are going to fall one house at the time, while as a group, you could have successfully defended against the threat. Most residences are going to need 8-12 well-trained shooters to properly defend it. As with most people, there will be some neighbors who are unreliable or untrustworthy. You will have to find a way to work with them or plan around them without leaving a gap in your defenses.

If you are moving out to another location, then you should plan to assemble your desired group for your destination. Do you travel together, or separately?

If you are accepting members to your party after the disaster, then you are going to have to have an abbreviated selection and assessment process. Time will be critical, and some people are better judges of characters than others. For example, you may want to let your spouse or someone else you trust who has people skills do your vetting and decision-making (or at least pre-screening) of potential new personnel. You are going to have to quickly decide if you can trust these newcomers to stand armed watches over you and your family. Conversely, do you seem like a trustworthy person to others that they can put their faith in? If you seem unreliable or shady, you may lose people you would have liked to have had join you. At worst, the people you have brought in may decide to mutiny and toss you out. You will need to rapidly determine if they have critical skills that you need. Ultimately, you will have to decide if their benefits outweigh their costs.

Ethically and morally, you will have to decide who joins you, who you help, and how much. Personally, I suspect that anyone you feed once will, like a stray pet, come back for more, likely telling others of your bounty. At the same time, turning away a starving child takes a hard heart. Anything you gave away or barter may come back to haunt you. Finally, people who fail to prepare in times of plenty are putting themselves and their loved ones at risk when the inevitable occurs. That is not really my responsibility. Many are counting on the government to bail them out. I hope they are not disappointed, but I am not betting my family's lives on it.

There are few easy decisions.

Just my .02, YMMV.

TR

I would start spreading rumors immediately.
It's a small town.

Specifics on the rumors:
-all local law enforcement is standing against this order
-any LEO who is attempting to enforce it has "gone rogue" and is just trying to rob you, defend yourself and legitimate LEO's will back you
-private property will be respected, LEO's will back you, any LEO saying anything to the contrary has gone rogue
-you will receive support from local law enforcement if lethal force is used to protect persons and property
-looters will be severely punished
-local churches will be coordinating efforts for the community to take care of itself during this "temporary" emergency

Then I'd encourage them to tell everyone they could.


Most of our LEOs would have this attitude anyway.
Most of the local population would have this attitude anyway.
Efforts to violently suppress the (well-armed) local population would be very costly in terms of casualties.

If enough people believe it, it becomes a fact.

You have a boat Pete, I'm on the same boat but with three dragging along.

Great idea TR

I like the way you're thinking! :lifter

Martial law won't last more than a few days under the given scenario, regardless.

GratefulCitizen is already starting his planning at the tribe level. He and I are in agreement. Now my <Ctl><V>. ;)

First things first: Is the scenario credible? Could it all come down around our ears? My conclusion after considerable research is yes, it is possible, even probable if we stay on our current trajectory. I believe the financial, manufacturing, and logistical systems have become so complex and interdependent--and the social systems so degraded--that it’s only a matter of time before a Black Swan event (e.g. major bank failure, currency re-issuance, credit collapse, coronal mass ejection, pandemic) provides the butterfly-wing flutter that brings the whole thing down. When might it happen? Who knows…might be this December, might be 2024, might be never if we get our act together.

Next for consideration: How long until things get back to normal after a grid-down event? I think the only reasonable answer is “never”. I’m seeing predictions, which seem credible to me, of irreparable and mortal damage to the human, financial, technological, and supply chain resources necessary to maintain the grid, communications, water and sewage, transport, and financial systems within ten days of a major event. Slower events, like a pandemic, would unfold at their own pace until a tipping point was reached (or not, we’ve seen the danger approach and recede before). Then the same ten-day chain of self-reinforcing financial and supply chain contagion would lead to a collapse down to a level that is sustainable within the new reality of reduced capacity at every level of the system. . [See this study for the potential impact of a financial event http://www.feasta.org/wp-content/upl...f_Korowicz.pdf and this for a pandemic http://www.feasta.org/wp-content/upl...-pandemic2.pdf. I’ve cited similar studies by Swiss Re, the U of Chi and U of MI in the Pandemic Flu thread. Also look up The Collapse of Complex Societies by Joseph Tainter. There are free PDFs all over the net.]

The challenges in a grid-down environment will be immense. Short-term requirements will include food, water, shelter, sanitation, medical care, security, and social organization (Who’s the boss? What are the laws? What is your strategy for negotiating/merging with other groups? What’s your overarching ethical approach?). Long-term requirements will be the same but will be even more challenging as the pre-crash remnants are consumed or destroyed in the inevitable chaos.

I think the only reasonable hope for survival will be to create, or join, increasingly sophisticated polities that trace the path of historical social development: clans, bands, tribes, chiefdoms, kingdoms, and states. I believe that the good guys and bad guys will follow generally similar trajectories (up to a point, predators will need to evolve to get past the chiefdom stage) when it comes to social organization. If you encounter bad guys with a more sophisticated level of organization, i.e. if your group is a clan and you encounter a predatory tribe, you will be destroyed or assimilated, with all that historically entails for you and your family. Bad ju-ju.

The current challenge involves the formation of a stable extended family or clan. While important in the earliest stages of a collapse, it’s my belief that no matter how well you organize yourself at that level you’re facing ultimate destruction if you stay there for more than a short while. Personally, I’d skip that level and move directly to organizing at the tribe level (local town/community). With several hundred potential foot soldiers for patrolling/defense and additional hundreds that can be directed toward growing food and securing resources your chances of survival improve exponentially. That way you’re much more likely to have a doctor, a lawyer, hopefully farmers and experienced gardeners with canning expertise, maybe a veterinarian, short-term access to heavy equipment, fuel, and materiel for engineering effective defenses, maybe even a farrier or an old coot/hobbyist with blacksmithing experience, etc. You’re also going to have to deal with existing local politicians, from mayors and chiefs of police to self-important little-pond bigwigs—all who think they should have a say once a forum for their opinions is established. The more things change…well, you know.

This is going to involve Civil Affairs and FID/UW in equal measures if any of us are to get out of this alive. My guess is 50% of your tribe won’t make the first anniversary of the crash even if things go really well. Still better than being taken down piecemeal by one or two roving bands.

Sorry, long-winded as usual. This doesn’t change the importance of membership selection as laid out in the original Reaper Challenge it just changes the scale. I’ll go over my thoughts on refugee selection and vetting, internal tribe organization, etc. in a separate post.