Madrid

[NousDefionsDoc]

Why?

[The Reaper]

I think that the poll does not allow for the most likely possibility, that AQ cooperated with the ETA and used their materials, connections, and intel to set up the hit by AQ, perhaps for compensation, at a time and place of AQ's choice, allowing them to claim responsibility.

The GoS just announced the arrest of Morroccans and Indians in connection with these attacks. The Morroccans track with AQ, not sure what the Indians would be doing, unless they are Muslims. The ETA has gone to ground, if they have any intelligence at all.

This tracks with rumors of increasing international interaction and cooperation by national or regional terrorist groups.

Just my .02.

TR

[NousDefionsDoc]

Good point Boss, thanks for the oversight. Corrective action taken. I think I even fixed it where you can vote again if you want.

[Ockham's Razor]

I voted for both, based on what TR pointed out.

With the perception that AQ is behind this, and voting looking likely to change the Spanish government... Is it possible we might lose Spain as an ally in the GWOT?

Their entry into our Alliance, from what I recall, was not widely supported by the people.

[Jimbo]

I didn't vote because there is not enough info to determine the answer.

The attack does not fit the MO of either group. The preponderance of evidence points to ETA. However, barring a major shake-up in ETA, the attacks are way out of character.

None of the TTPs involved indicate AQ involvement. No suicide, guys wearing ski masks, and some other things. [edited to reflect current news]


I look at it this way. Say you are a member or ETA (a fairly savvy group as far as terrorist groups go) and you are pissed your group has been pretty effectively dealt with under the current President. You know that the population supports him in his campaign against you, but you know the population does not support him in his other counter-terror initiatives (which is a pretty interesting dynamic). You need to do something to get him off your ass and mobilize people to vote against him. What do you do, who do you blame and when do you do it? I argue we have already seen the answer. The wake of the operation affects the change you need which may or may not allow for your ultimate survival.

If it was an AQ/ETA tag team, we are in some deep shit.

[pulque]

Originally posted by Jimbo

What do you do, who do you blame and when do you do it?

I'm confused . Are you suggesting an "ETA disguised as AQ" option, or an "AQ disguised as ETA" option?

[Team Sergeant]

Originally posted by Jimbo

If it was an AQ/ETA tag team, we are in some deep shit.

I agree with your thinking, it was a quick plan to out the current President, and it worked.

If they are working together Spain is in deep shit with the new President, not us. They will use Spain as a jump point knowing they will not be hunted on home turf.

Now it's the "La Jihad" bring it on.....

(Kinda stupid declaring an open season on yourself.....)

Team Sergeant

[Jimbo]

Originally posted by Team Sergeant
Now it's the "La Jihad" bring it on.....

(Kinda stupid declaring an open season on yourself.....)

Team Sergeant

True. My concern over a team-up is the proliferation of collar-bomb technology and cell phone detonators. I don't like it when terrorist groups get together and compare notes.

[Team Sergeant]

I find it interesting that the people of Spain (not unlike some of the people of our country) would rather blame everyone except the terrorists that perpetrated the attacks. I do not, however, find it surprising that Spain folded under this pressure.

Few countries I know would think the opposite and the attack would only harden their collective resolve. (Great Britain and Australia come to mind) This may be an emerging consideration on behalf of the terrorists, attack the weak countries, for they will not hunt you or take part in removing rouge governments. Interesting indeed.

The sad part is the terrorists seem to have won and achieved this victory without a fight. They are smarter than I gave them credit. They timed it perfect. Now we need to be on alert 11 months from now……

Team Sergeant

[lrd]

Zapatero promised to pull Spanish troops out of Iraq if he won. In exit-poll interviews, people are saying that they voted for him because they think AQ was responsible. (So I guess they do believe that there is a relationship between AQ and Saddam.)

If AQ and ETA are working together, the government will have a hard time getting the population behind the fight against either group when the other can be held partially resonsible.

I hope that bombs-before-elections doesn't become the next rage.

[lrd]

Originally posted by Team Sergeant
IThe sad part is the terrorists seem to have won and achieved this victory without a fight. What do you think their goals were? Beyond the affecting the election?

[Roguish Lawyer]

Originally posted by lrd
I hope that bombs-before-elections doesn't become the next rage.

I do not believe that Americans would respond the same way.

Well, maybe in Massachusetts . . .

[Jimbo]

Originally posted by Team Sergeant
The sad part is the terrorists seem to have won and achieved this victory without a fight. They are smarter than I gave them credit. They timed it perfect. Now we need to be on alert 11 months from now……

I think this attack is as importat to the future of terrorism as our success in Iraq is to the future of the Middle East.

[Team Sergeant]

Originally posted by Jimbo
I think this attack is as importat to the future of terrorism as our success in Iraq is to the future of the Middle East.

I agree, this was a huge success on their part. They are now planning the next hit, anyone got a list of countries backing the United States against the AQ and Iraq?

[Team Sergeant]

Originally posted by Roguish Lawyer
I do not believe that Americans would respond the same way.

Well, maybe in Massachusetts . . .


Agreed, but we would out the current President based on his failure to protect us....

[Team Sergeant]

Originally posted by lrd
What do you think their goals were? Beyond the affecting the election?

I would say they more than acheived their goals.

[Basenshukai]

Sadly, as the nearly 200 bodies are prepared for burial, the Spanish population is questioning the wisdom of its government having supported the United States in its Global War on Terrorism (GWOT); namely Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF). About two years ago I had the pleasure of training alongside a Spanish infantry officer. He was not only highly competent in his country’s doctrine, but was equally adept at our own. On the eve of his return to Spain, he told me about the one thing that set the United States military apart from the Spanish armed forces the most. His revelation was surprising. It was not our realistic training – constantly tested and validated in battle. It was not our cutting edge technology - years ahead of any military in the world. It was not our highly trained non-commissioned officer corps - the most professional in the world. It was the willingness of the American people, more than anywhere else in the world, to commit their sons and daughters to voluntary military service and to have the moral and physical courage to get after the enemy, wherever he may be. Historically, Spain, as a nation, has lacked the willingness to involve itself in modern conflict.

Spain remained militarily neutral during World War One. Economically, it was a very significant source of goods for France, the other allies and South America. Amazingly, Spain also lost close to 140,000 tons of shipping (not to mention ship personnel) to the German U-Boats during the war. Nevertheless, Spain was not eager to engage the Germans, directly, or otherwise, in the prosecution of any retaliatory military action.

During World War Two, Spain was neutral as well. However, from the period of 1939 to 1942, it was quite close to the Axis Powers. The rule of Franco and the economic destruction following its three-year civil war, took any incentive out of the Spanish government to involve itself into a destructive conflict. Nevertheless, Franco had entered into talks with Hitler in order to secure Spain’s security during the war (a pervasive attitude in Europe called “appeasement�).

In the end, I think that fighting is not in the heart of Spanish people. It will probably take a strong government and, sadly, another catastrophic event, to propel Spain forward into a true fight against terrorism on its own soil and beyond. Al Qaeda’s strike against Spain has come at a critical time. The fact that the strike has come exactly 911 days after our own collision with destiny should not be lost on us. The symbolism here is obvious. However, the most important aspect of this strike is just below the surface.

This latest attack clearly punishes Spain for supporting the United States during OIF and the GWOT. The average Spaniard psyche is germane to the next point. These attacks will likely, and predictably, create a backlash against the current ruling party as it supported the United States and indirectly proposed an alternate target for Al Qaeda to exploit. Many on the left see Spain’s support as a return to the days of St. James the Moorslayer, who is said to have helped the Spanish warriors drive out the Muslim occupiers nearly 800 years ago. This is nonsensical rhetoric but nevertheless, not lost on the far left there, or anywhere else in Europe.

If this strategy works to significantly affect the upcoming elections, Al Qaeda would have achieved an even grander victory. If Al Qaeda proves to itself that it can manipulate a nation’s elections, then no election, anywhere, is safe.

[The Reaper]

Originally posted by Team Sergeant
Agreed, but we would out the current President based on his failure to protect us....

Only if his replacement was deemed to be better at protecting us.

As that does not appear to be the popular opinion, I would say that it would have the opposite effect here.

Additional terrorist attacks here, unless demonstrably caused by Administration neglect, should prove to help the current Administration in their re-election campaign.

Now, if they would only select a VP who brings something more electable to the table. Like Powell, or Rice.

TR

[Team Sergeant]

Originally posted by The Reaper
Only if his replacement was deemed to be better at protecting us.

As that does not appear to be the popular opinion, I would say that it would have the opposite effect here.
TR

Sadly I think this would be accomplished by “pulling out� of every country we are currently hunting terrorists in. That’s how Kerry and his kind will protect us, by conceding to the terrorists. Without the pressure of the United States on their asses they will be free to attack the weak nations and convert them to their ways. That’s how I see the future if Kerry is elected.

[Basenshukai]

I guess we were right. Spain's elections have been decided by Al Qaeda.

[shadowflyer]

Originally posted by Team Sergeant
I agree, this was a huge success on their part. They are now planning the next hit, anyone got a list of countries backing the United States against the AQ and Iraq?


Working on that INTEL at this moment TS.

Best Regards,
J

[Airbornelawyer]

Originally posted by Basenshukai
During World War Two, Spain was neutral as well. However, from the period of 1939 to 1942, it was quite close to the Axis Powers. The rule of Franco and the economic destruction following its three-year civil war, took any incentive out of the Spanish government to involve itself into a destructive conflict. Nevertheless, Franco had entered into talks with Hitler in order to secure Spain’s security during the war (a pervasive attitude in Europe called “appeasement�). The Division Azul ("Blue Division") was formed from volunteers in 1941. The first Spanish troops arrived at Grafenwöhr in July 1941. On 25 July, they were officially designated the 250. Infanterie-Division and reorganized on German lines (Spanish infantry divisions at the time were "square" divisions, with 4 regiments; German divisions were triangular, with 3 regiments). On the evening of 11-12 October 1941, the division conducted a relief in place of a German division of the XXXVIII Army Corps, 18th Army, Army Group North. The next night, the Spaniards saw their first combat. They would fight pretty much continuously through that first Russian winter and into 1942. By September 1942, they were part of the siege of Leningrad. Between February 9 and February 11, 1943, the Spaniards suffered heavy casualties (75%) in the battle of Krasny Bor. Fighting continued throughout the year and in October 1943, the division was withdrawn and began the return to Spain. Several thousand volunteers remained behind as a Spanish Legion (the "Legion Azul") and served into early 1944. By April 1944, the Spanish Legion returned to Spain, but several hundred Spaniards remained in German service, including SS-Obersturmbannführer Miguel Ezquerra's Sturmabteilung "Ezquerra", which fought until the end in the battle of Berlin (Ezquerra himself managed to get out of Berlin after the Soviet victory).

[Airbornelawyer]

Originally posted by Team Sergeant
I agree, this was a huge success on their part. They are now planning the next hit, anyone got a list of countries backing the United States against the AQ and Iraq?
There are plenty of lists:
- those with troops on the ground in Iraq;
- the political coalition for OIF; and
- those with troops in OEF fighting al-Qa'ida and other terrorists.

But make no mistake. This was not about Spain's role in Iraq. That was only one small part of the terrorists' casus belli. This is a war against the West and Western values - liberty, equality, fraternity, pluralism, and all that.

There are plenty of countries who are with us in Iraq that are worried - the Czechs recently intercepted a shipment of tons of plastic explosives - but even those not with us in Iraq - France, for example - harbor no illusions that they are safe. I seriously doubt Greece will cancel all of its security precautions for the Olympics this summer now that only OIF coalition members are at risk.

[Airbornelawyer]

Regarding "who's next", one thing to note:

Next Sunday, March 21, is the Persian New Year (Nauroz or any of a myriad of variant spellings). Besides Iran, it is celebrated in Afghanistan and Kurdistan.

According to Turkish press reports, the Iraqi Kurdish PUK has already claimed to have foiled one AQ suicide bomb plot for the new year's celebrations in Sulaimaniyah.

From Kirkuk to Kabul, this is one of the more immediate threats to watch.

[Pandora]

Breakdown of Troops on the ground in Iraq by Country (http://www.theglobalist.com/DBWeb/StoryId.aspx?StoryId=3592)

[NousDefionsDoc]

I think Italy is next

[Airbornelawyer]

Originally posted by Pandora
Breakdown of Troops on the ground in Iraq by Country (http://www.theglobalist.com/DBWeb/StoryId.aspx?StoryId=3592) The information in that article is inaccurate.

[The Reaper]

Originally posted by NousDefionsDoc
I think Italy is next

My thoughts exactly.

Or England, but they may be a harder target. I suspect that the larger Muslim and immigrant population in England may offset their superior security posture and make it a toss-up.

The ability to change the outcome of an election in a European nation is a scary portent of things to come and is the exact aim of terrorism.

TR

[NousDefionsDoc]

Originally posted by The Reaper
My thoughts exactly.

Or England, but they may be a harder target. I suspect that the larger Muslim and immigrant population in England may offset their superior security posture and make it a toss-up.

The ability to change the outcome of an election in a European nation is a scary portent of things to come and is the exact aim of terrorism.

TR

I agree completely. I say Italy because it is the other country besides Spain where polls showed a majority were opposed to sending troops to Iraq and the politicians did it anyway - easy to get the same result.

Also agree about the offset in England. It was my 2nd choice.

[Team Sergeant]

I agree with Italy but not England. You have a major bombing there (like Spain) and you're just going to enrage them along with the United States and double the efforts of the both countries.
The terrorists have learned (and terrorist supporting nations) that if there is a major event were to occur in the US we will act quickly and unilaterally. We will remove heads of state and entire governments over such acts. I really do not think the AQ saw that coming.

Italy on the other hand would fold in two seconds and follow the Spanish example of “if attacked place head in sand.�

[NousDefionsDoc]

Team Sergeant,
I think perhaps you under estimate the power of the radical left in England. Blair is already shaky at best. We'll see soon enough won't we? I bet it doesn't take them long to strike after the success in Spain.

[Airbornelawyer]

Originally posted by NousDefionsDoc
I agree completely. I say Italy because it is the other country besides Spain where polls showed a majority were opposed to sending troops to Iraq and the politicians did it anyway - easy to get the same result.

Also agree about the offset in England. It was my 2nd choice.
Actually, polls showed opposition in almost every country in Europe. But bear in mind that support for US policy in Iraq is hardly the sine qua non for being a terrorist target. For Spain, the Iraq policy and its unpopularity in Spain was only one component. It was Spanish policy from 1492 to 2002 that made Spain a target, and not just from 2002 to 2004. Spain was also a target of convenience. With the relative ease of smuggling stuff from Morocco, the ability to hide among the local Muslim population and the contacts with home-grown ETA terrorists, Spain presented opportunities that other countries did not.

Since 9-11, most of the large terrorist attacks and attempted attacks had been in non-Western countries - Indonesia, Pakistan, Iraq, Turkey, Morocco, Yemen, Kenya, Russia - where security measures were not as good as in the Western world. As time went by, even the Western countries security measures relaxed somewhat. The NY National Guard disappeared from the subways, the Gendarmerie Nationale wasn't as visible around the Eiffel Tower, and so forth. Madrid was first, but it could just as easily have happened in Milan or Athens, and Italian support in Iraq or Greek opposition to US policy would make no difference.

To the extent al-Qa'ida is in a position to plan high-profile large-scale attacks, the Athens Olympics remains a major target, but of course that is one area where extensive security measures are being taken.

As noted, the most immediate threat may be in Afghanistan or northern Iraq, timed with Nauroz to provoke chaos and internecine violence. In the longer term, the Athens Olympics and the US elections remain high-profile targets. But a Madrid-style attack is just as likely in Istanbul or Warsaw as in Milan or Manchester.

BTW, lost in some of the recent coverage of Madrid and other fronts in the war on terror was this: Saudi security forces killed two more people on their al-Qa'ida most wanted list in a gun battle in Riyadh. One of the two was Khalid 'Ali bin Hajj, A Yemeni reportedly head of al-Qa'ida operations in Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf region.

[NousDefionsDoc]

Chief of Al-Qaeda's Arabian Peninsula Operations Killed

RIYADH, SAUDI ARABIA: Saudi security forces killed two militants,
including one considered Al-Qaeda's chief of operations on the
Arabian Peninsula, in a shootout in the capital of Riyadh on
Monday, U.S. and Saudi officials told the Associated Press.

A Saudi Interior Ministry statement said the two were killed in
the al-Nasseem neighborhood, in eastern Riyadh, in an exchange
of fire with security forces on Monday afternoon.

Abu Hazim al-Sha'ir, a Yemeni believed to be about 30, was the
senior Al-Qaeda figure in the region, a U.S. counterterrorism
official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity. The
official said his death represented a "major, very significant
blow" to Al-Qaeda. "This guy was involved in ongoing terrorist
planning and plotting," the official added.

The Saudi Interior Ministry identified the dead as Khaled Ali
Haj, a Yemeni,and Ibrahim bin Abdul-Aziz bin Mohammed al-Mezeini,
a Saudi. Haj is another named used by Abu Hazim, according to
the U.S. counterterrorism official.


Suspicious Packages Sent to Saudi Embassy in London

UNITED KINGDOM: British police said Monday they were examining
four "suspicious" packages sent to diplomatic premises in
London, as the Saudi embassy revealed that it had received an
envelope containing white powder.

In a statement, the embassy said: "A closed envelope arrived
at the embassy this morning containing white powder. The
embassy contacted the British authorities who dealt with
the matter on the spot."

Scotland Yard has not revealed any more details about the
discovery or what the white powder was.

[Team Sergeant]

Yes I quite aware of Blair's standing, but we're talking about Brits. (not frenchmen) They will fight just to uphold the Queens honor. They have a very good sense of the moral right. Remember these are the people that were ready to do battle with hitler and Germany alone if necessary.
No, if an large scale event were to take place on their soil it would be more trouble for the terrorists. Easier to pick on small countries with no backbone, make them all withdrawal then go after the big guys. Especially if world opinion is on your side!!!

[Airbornelawyer]

Originally posted by Team Sergeant
Italy on the other hand would fold in two seconds and follow the Spanish example of “if attacked place head in sand.� Being the pessimist I am, I expected Italy to cave like Spain after the attack on the Carabinieri headquarters in an-Nasiriyah. But the opposite happened. Italy experienced an outpouring of patriotism. An opinion poll in La Repubblica in the week after the attack showed only about 1/5th supporting pulling out of Iraq.

[NousDefionsDoc]

But bear in mind that support for US policy in Iraq is hardly the sine qua non for being a terrorist target. For Spain, the Iraq policy and its unpopularity in Spain was only one component. It was Spanish policy from 1492 to 2002 that made Spain a target, and not just from 2002 to 2004.

I'm not so sure I agree with this.

AQ needs a base now that they don't have 'Stan and the Pakis are in the tribal areas. Their last success was in 'Stan while it was in a state of chaos (like Iraq is now).

How about this - they made a deal with that Muslim cleric that didn't want to sign the constitution and his group will be the next Taliban after they isolate the US in Iraq?

I do agree about the polls and we all know about polls in general.

[Roguish Lawyer]

Anybody still think ETA was involved?

[NousDefionsDoc]

Yes

[Roguish Lawyer]

Originally posted by NousDefionsDoc
Yes

I should have said other than you. You probably think McVeigh and Jimmy Hoffa were involved too. LOL

[NousDefionsDoc]

Originally posted by Roguish Lawyer
I should have said other than you. You probably think McVeigh and Jimmy Hoffa were involved too. LOL

No, they're both dead. I'm not a conspiracy theorist.

I'm not an expert but...

The explosives, while apparently not stolen or missing from Spain, were manufactured there. The detonators don't tell me anything, because they all learned that cell phone crap from the IRA probably.

I think the common link with all these groups is the training they did a few years ago in the ME. And I don't think one group is going to do an op in another group's AO without consulting with them. I don't think ETA did it, I think they allowed and maybe supported it.

ETA and the IRA have worked Colombia, and they all sent people to the ME.

[Airbornelawyer]

Originally posted by NousDefionsDoc
I'm not so sure I agree with this.

AQ needs a base now that they don't have 'Stan and the Pakis are in the tribal areas. Their last success was in 'Stan while it was in a state of chaos (like Iraq is now).

How about this - they made a deal with that Muslim cleric that didn't want to sign the constitution and his group will be the next Taliban after they isolate the US in Iraq?

I do agree about the polls and we all know about polls in general.
For AQ, Grand Ayatullah Sistani is almost as much of an infidel as George Bush is. The AQ-linked groups in Iraq have been attacking his allies as well as Westerners (remember the Zarqawi memo). Alliances of convenience with certain Shi'ites and Ba'athists are of course likely, but Sistani isn't one. Sistani's goals are two-fold: (i) to ensure that the Shi'a come out at the top of the Iraqi heap and that any balance of power system doesn't work to allow the Sunni Arab minority to dominate the Shi'ite majority again, and (ii) to ensure that Islam remains the main source of law and that religious judges such as himself are its interpreters (he could care less if the legislative branch is dominated by more secularly-minded people; the judiciary is his goal).

Regarding scouting for new AQ bases of operations, talk to 3rd Group. There are a few places not too far from Spain that have become important in recent months.

In the long run, Iraqi chaos does work to AQ's advantage. Arabs stick out much less in Baqubah than they do in Timbuktu, Mogadishu or Khost. I am not trying to completely discount the Spain/Iraq connection. It is certainly a major component. But I am worried about overemphasizing it for two reasons: (i) it falsely encourages those like the Spanish elecorate who think that breaking from the coalition will make them safer and (ii) it diverts attention away from other likely targets who did not support the coalition. Turkey and Morocco were not part of the OIF coalition (at least actively), but still were attacked. One of the targets in Morocco was Belgian, and Belgium is the worst ankle-biter of the axis of weasels. The attacks in Tunis were against Jews, always a popular target, but German tourists were the main victims. As noted, Greece remains a likely target because of the high profile of the Olympics. And France is certainly high on the list. Domestically it has cracked down on Islamist attempts to radicalize the Muslim population, and French SOF are currently active in the anti-AQ operations along the Afghan-Pak border.

Going back to the original premise, though, although AQ's MO is not to do the same thing twice, the following OIF coalition members have elections in the next few months:

El Salvador - 21 March presidential election
Georgia - 28 March parliamentary elections
Thailand - March senate elections
Slovakia - 3 & 17 April presidential election
Macedonia - 14 April presidential election
South Korea - 15 April parliamentary elections
Philippines - 10 May presidential, parliamentary and senate elections
Dominican Republic - 16 May presidential election
Japan - July senate elections
Mongolia - July parliamentary elections
Lithuania - October parliamentary elections
Ukraine - October presidential election
US - 2 November
Australia - November parliamentary and senate elections
Czech Republic - November senate elections
Romania - November/December presidential, parliamentary and senate elections

Non-OIF coalition members with terrorism problems and upcoming elections in 2004 include Malaysia, Indonesia, India, the European Parliament, Afghanistan, Lebanon, France, Ireland and Tunisia.

[NousDefionsDoc]

Well, you could be right. Interesting discussion. I really wish I knew more about that part of the world sometimes, but it passes quickly.:cool:

[The Reaper]

Originally posted by Roguish Lawyer
I should have said other than you. You probably think McVeigh and Jimmy Hoffa were involved too. LOL

I am with NDD on this one.

If not the trigger pullers, I think that ETA provided support on this op.

NDD, you have email.

TR

[NousDefionsDoc]

French police officials stated on 15 March 2004 that bomb disposal experts safely defused two explosive devices at a hotel complex being constructed in the Bidarray area in the Basque region on 14 March 2004. The devices consisted of two gas canisters containing 29 lb/13 kg of explosives each. Explosives resembled those that the Basque separatist group ETA has used in the past. No one has claimed responsibility for the attempted attack.

[NousDefionsDoc]

Spanish police and counterterrorism officers on 16 March 2004 announced that they have identified six potential suspects in the 11 March 2004 Madrid train bombing. The suspects are described as Moroccan men. Officials currently have one suspect in custody. The others remain at large at this time. Officials have also confirmed that a videotape discovered after the bombings, in which al-Qaeda claims responsibility for the attack, is authentic. Authorities are continuing to search for more suspects.

[NousDefionsDoc]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=676&e=2&u=/usatoday/20040316/ts_usatoday/alqaedamaybeshowinganewface

[NousDefionsDoc]

TEGUCIGALPA, Honduras - Honduras, following the lead of Spain, will withdraw its 370 troops from a Spanish-led humanitarian and peacekeeping brigade in Iraq by the end of June, Defense Secretary Federico Breve said Tuesday.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=535&e=7&u=/ap/20040316/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/honduras_iraq_troops

[Roguish Lawyer]

Originally posted by NousDefionsDoc
TEGUCIGALPA, Honduras - Honduras, following the lead of Spain, will withdraw its 370 troops from a Spanish-led humanitarian and peacekeeping brigade in Iraq by the end of June, Defense Secretary Federico Breve said Tuesday.


Salvadoran Defense Secretary Gen. Juan Martinez said Tuesday that the country would keep its troops in Iraq no matter what.

I hope we will see some views from 7th Group on why.

[NousDefionsDoc]

Spanish-led humanitarian and peacekeeping brigade in Iraq

Spain was probably paying for it.

[Airbornelawyer]

For the most part, the US was paying for it, but not enough apparently. Nicaragua cancelled plans to send its second contingent because of costs, and Honduras had had second thoughts when the first contingent was due to return, but went ahead and sent the second. The Spanish decision gives them cover. The other member of the brigade is the Dominican Republic. Given its rather complicated relations with the United States, and given its unexpected current and future commitments regarding Haiti, I would not be surprised if DomRep decides to end its Iraq commitment as well.

[Airbornelawyer]

Nothing in the Dominican papers that I could find, and no announcements from the government.

The FMLN candidate for El Salvador's president has said he will withdraw El Sal's troops if he wins, so we have another referendum like the Spanish election.

[Jimbo]

Even if ETA was the main culprit in the attack, we will never hear about it. World reaction to the effect on the Spanish election has pretty much assured that. Spain can not blame anyone but AQ now.

[DunbarFC]

A different take on Spain's response to this

Spain's response to terror (http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=20040316-014634-4441r)

[lrd]

Police identify Spain 'bombers'

http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/europe/03/16/spain.invest/index.html

[NousDefionsDoc]

Looks like they found old boy in Basque country?

[lrd]

Originally posted by Team Sergeant
I agree, this was a huge success on their part. They are now planning the next hit, anyone got a list of countries backing the United States against the AQ and Iraq? Muslim group threatens France
Group plans to inflict 'terror into the heart of the French people'

http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/europe/03/17/france.threats/index.html


I also found this interesting: "If it is necessary, we will continue leading the multinational division," Polish Ambassador to NATO Jerzy M. Nowak told Reuters in Brussels. "We are prepared for that even if Spain is not able to fulfil its promise."http://edition.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/europe/03/15/poland.iraq.reut/

[Airbornelawyer]

Poland:Prime Minister Leszek Miller said on 15 March that Poland will maintain its contingent of 2,400 troops in Iraq, Polish media reported. Miller was reacting to the suggestion earlier the same day by Spanish Prime Minister-elect Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero that Madrid will pull its 1,300 soldiers out of the 9,000-strong Polish-led division in Iraq by 30 June in the absence of a UN mandate. Miller said such a pullout could be perceived as weakness in the face of terror following last week's bomb attacks in Madrid. President Aleksander Kwasniewski said on 16 March that if Spain decides to withdraw its troops from Iraq, Poland will not send more soldiers to fill the gap. "We are working according to a plan, and we cannot change it from day to day and send troops. We don't have them prepared, to be honest," PAP quoted Kwasniewski as saying. The Netherlands:The Dutch government said it would not be cowed into withdrawing its 1,100 troops from Iraq and that the attacks should not affect deliberations on extending their mandate. "We cannot leave a country like Iraq on its own," Dutch Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende said on Dutch television. "Because of terror you can't just say: now we say no to them." Czech Republic:A host of senior Czech officials and other politicians said on 15 March that they are not considering a withdrawal of Czech soldiers from Iraq in the wake of the 11 March bombings in Madrid, CTK and local dailies reported. "I would not think of such an alternative because I am sure that it is in Europe's interest to stabilize the situation in Iraq. Our participation helps the affair," Prime Minister Vladimir Spidla said, according to CTK. Foreign Minister Cyril Svoboda and Interior Minister Stanislav Gross echoed Spidla's statement. Gross questioned whether the new Spanish government's vow to withdraw Spanish troops from Iraq without a UN mandate would not send the wrong signals to terrorist groups. The shadow defense minister for the opposition Civic Democratic Party, Petr Necas, said he believes a withdrawal of troops would represent a victory for terrorists. Senior members of the Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia were virtually alone in praising the Spanish Socialists' warning of a troop withdrawal from Iraq, according to local media. The Czech Republic has deployed dozens of military-police officers to Iraq, has peacekeepers in Kosova, and is currently dispatching troops to Afghanistan. Italy:In Italy, whose next election is scheduled for 2006, leaders insist the country would be a target even if it hadn't contributed 3,000 troops to Iraq — a commitment the government said it would not change. "Iraq has nothing to do with it. Italy, like all the democratic countries in the world, is a target," Foreign Minister Franco Frattini told the La Repubblica daily. He noted that Morocco has also been hit by terror attacks, and that countries like Germany and France, which opposed war in Iraq, do not consider themselves safe. Ukraine:Ukraine has 1,650 troops serving under Polish command in Iraq, and Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych is "very anxious" about that in light of the Madrid bombings, his spokesman said Tuesday. But Ukrainian officials made clear there were no plans to pull out. Denmark:Denmark's prime minister said on Wednesday his country would not cave in to pressure from "terrorists" by pulling its 500 troops out of Iraq. "The government has no plans to withdraw Danish forces from Iraq. That would be a victory for the terrorists and be a fatal signal that terrorism pays," Anders Fogh Rasmussen said during a debate in parliament. [Note typical Reuters "news" agency scare-quotes around terrorists. Fuckwads.]
Jordan:Jordan's King Abdullah II warned of ethnic strife in Iraq and urged the world to prevent such violence, a Turkish newspaper reported. "If a stable state is established in Iraq and things are put on track, we can say that overthrowing Saddam was right. But if a civil war erupts and Iraq is divided, we will know it was a mistake," he told the daily Hurriyet. Saudi Arabia:There will be no letup in the Kingdom’s fight against terrorism, Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal said yesterday, a day after security forces gunned down two terror suspects including a leader of the Al-Qaeda network in the Gulf region.Bulgaria:Bulgaria will not increase the number of its peacekeepers in Iraq to make up for a possible withdrawal of Spanish troops, a top military officer said on Wednesday. ... "We are not ready to deploy more troops in Iraq," Bulgaria's chief of staff Nikola Kolev told reporters. "If Spain takes a decision to pull out of Iraq and other countries decide not to send more soldiers, there would be a redistribution of duties and a bigger work load," he said.... "We cannot do anything else. But we...have no intention of withdrawing from our responsibilities in Iraq," [a Defense Ministry spokeswoman] said.

[Airbornelawyer]

Apparently nobody told these guys that opposing the US on Iraq will get you off the terrorist shit-list:

[lrd]

Report: Group Claiming Madrid Bombings Names Possible Next Targets
In its statement, Abu Hafs al-Masri said it was calling a truce in Spain to give the socialist government that was elected Sunday, three days after the train attacks, time to carry out its pledge to withdraw troops from Iraq.

The group appeared to boast it had the power to change governments.

"We change and destroy countries," the statement said. "We even influence the international economy, and this is God's blessing to us."

The statement tells American voters that Abu Hafs al-Masri supports the re-election campaign of President Bush: "We are very keen that Bush does not lose the upcoming elections."

The statement said Abu Hafs al-Masri needs what it called Bush's "idiocy and religious fanaticism" because they would "wake up" the Islamic world.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,114489,00.html

[NousDefionsDoc]

Madrid Update (http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=578&e=6&u=/nm/20040318/ts_nm/spain_dc)

A Spaniard?

[Roguish Lawyer]

The Madrid strike was the bloodiest guerrilla attack in Europe since the 1988 Lockerbie plane bombing.

Guerilla? :munchin

[NousDefionsDoc]

Originally posted by Roguish Lawyer
Guerilla? :munchin

Reuters

[DunbarFC]

The book Inside Terrorism by Bruce Hoffman provides a good discussion on the medias' use of "guerilla" vs "terrorist"

I'll look it up tonight and post what he has to say on it rather than try to think it up off the top of my head

[Solid]

In London everything is very tense, everyone is expecting an attack, and soon.
What's the climate like in the US?
I'm personally pretty dumbfounded by some of the things that the "IRA-proof" British government has allowed. On buses, there are spaces under the chairs large enough to hide objects from site, and they even have a place for people to leave their bags while travelling... Seems to me that these buses are built to be bombed.

Solid

PS: "guerilla" LOL I saw this one coming...

[DunbarFC]

Just saw this on the net

Poland was 'misled' on Iraqi weapons, president says (http://www.boston.com/dailynews/078/world/Poland_was_misled_on_Iraqi_wea:.shtml)

[NousDefionsDoc]

Moroccan officials said evidence shows Zougam had links to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi — a key operative with strong ties to Ansar.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=514&e=4&u=/ap/20040318/ap_on_re_eu/spain_bombings

Abu Musab al-Zarqawi - a man famed for his eloquence and ruthlessness.

The 38-year old Jordanian radical fled to Iraq in 2001 after losing a leg in a US missile strike on his Afghan base.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3483089.stm

-------

I find this interesting

[Airbornelawyer]

In the wake of the terrorist attack and the Socialits victory, it is commonly pointed out that Spaniards overwhelmingly opposed the war in Iraq (90% opposition), so Zapatero's call for a withdrawal is only logical. Note this, however, from the Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas:

From a February 2003 study:

¿Está Ud. muy de acuerdo, bastante, poco o nada de acuerdo con que se produzca una intervención militar contra Irak?

Muy de acuerdo........... 1.2
Bastante de acuerdo.... 4.1
Poco de acuerdo.......... 20.8
Nada de acuerdo......... 70.0
N.S. .......................... 3.4 [no opinion]
N.C. ......................... 0.4 [no answer]

So 70% no support and 21% little support adds up to the 90 routinely cited.

But this is the war itself. As for Spanish participation in the post-war reconstruction:

Como Ud. sabe, España ha enviado al conflicto de Irak una fuerza militar en misión humanitaria. ¿Está Ud. muy de acuerdo, bastante de acuerdo, poco de acuerdo o nada de acuerdo con este envio?

Muy de acuerdo 20.0
Bastante de acuerdo 40.7
Poco de acuerdo 14.5
Nada de acuerdo 20.4
Le es indiferente 1.6
N.S. 2.2
N.C. .6

En su opinión, finalizada la guerra de Irak, ¿debe España participar en las acciones internacionales destinadas a la reconstrucción del pais?

Si 68.2
No 22.5
N.S. 8.2
N.C. 1.1

I suppose, post M-11, a poll would have different results, but constantly citing the 90% number seems disingenuous.

[Airbornelawyer]

The Poland story is getting a bit of play, but given Kwasniewski's other statements, there may be some spin going on here.

[DunbarFC]

Originally posted by Airbornelawyer
The Poland story is getting a bit of play, but given Kwasniewski's other statements, there may be some spin going on here.

I agree with you

It's funny how this story became the "lead" headline on many news sites

Spin indeed

[NousDefionsDoc]

Originally posted by Airbornelawyer
In the wake of the terrorist attack and the Socialits victory, it is commonly pointed out that Spaniards overwhelmingly opposed the war in Iraq (90% opposition), so Zapatero's call for a withdrawal is only logical. Note this, however, from the Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas:

From a February 2003 study:

¿Está Ud. muy de acuerdo, bastante, poco o nada de acuerdo con que se produzca una intervención militar contra Irak?

Muy de acuerdo........... 1.2
Bastante de acuerdo.... 4.1
Poco de acuerdo.......... 20.8
Nada de acuerdo......... 70.0
N.S. .......................... 3.4 [no opinion]
N.C. ......................... 0.4 [no answer]

So 70% no support and 21% little support adds up to the 90 routinely cited.

But this is the war itself. As for Spanish participation in the post-war reconstruction:

Como Ud. sabe, España ha enviado al conflicto de Irak una fuerza militar en misión humanitaria. ¿Está Ud. muy de acuerdo, bastante de acuerdo, poco de acuerdo o nada de acuerdo con este envio?

Muy de acuerdo 20.0
Bastante de acuerdo 40.7
Poco de acuerdo 14.5
Nada de acuerdo 20.4
Le es indiferente 1.6
N.S. 2.2
N.C. .6

En su opinión, finalizada la guerra de Irak, ¿debe España participar en las acciones internacionales destinadas a la reconstrucción del pais?

Si 68.2
No 22.5
N.S. 8.2
N.C. 1.1

I suppose, post M-11, a poll would have different results, but constantly citing the 90% number seems disingenuous.

Do you have the link for the source for this?

[shadowflyer]

Originally posted by shadowflyer
Working on that INTEL at this moment TS.

Best Regards,
J

Coalition member nations.

Afghanistan
Albania
Angola
Australia
Azerbaijan
Bulgaria
Colombia
Costa Rica
Czech Republic
Denmark
Dominican Republic
El Salvador
Eritrea
Estonia
Ethiopia
Georgia
Honduras
Hungary
Iceland
Italy
Japan
Kuwait
Latvia
Lithuania
Macedonia
Marshall Islands
Micronesia
Mongolia
Netherlands
Nicaragua
Palau
Panama
Philippines
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Rwanda
Singapore
Slovakia
Solomon Islands
South Korea
Spain
Tonga
Turkey
Uganda
Ukraine
United Kingdom
United States
Uzbekistan

[Airbornelawyer]

Originally posted by NousDefionsDoc
Do you have the link for the source for this?

The February 2003 poll is here: http://www.cis.es/estudio.asp?nest=2481

That was pregunta 19.

The post-war reconstruction questions are from the April 2003 poll here: http://www.cis.es/estudio.asp?nest=2508.

They are preguntas 12 & 13.

CIS doesn't appear to have conducted any polls covering Iraq since the end of the ground war and the deployment of Spanish troops.

[NousDefionsDoc]

Thank you.

[lrd]

Eta vows to extend Spain attacks

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/3462575.stm

Spain Releases Intel to Refute Lying Charges

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,114619,00.html

Spain knew bombing suspects but didn't act: Had alleged organizer of Madrid attacks under surveillance last year

http://news.groupweb.com/cgi-bin/news.cgi?f1=index_europe&template=regional_categories.html&Submit=Go&frameurl=http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?x135524809

Madrid Bomb Explosives 'Traced'

http://news.groupweb.com/cgi-bin/news.cgi?f1=index_europe&template=regional_categories.html&Submit=Go&frameurl=http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?x135539907

[lrd]

A Spaniard with a criminal record led four Moroccans to an explosives warehouse at a mine to steal dynamite used in the Madrid (search) terror bombings, a newspaper reported Saturday.

The unidentified Spaniard, a former miner in the northern Asturias region, was among four people arrested Thursday. He insisted he only led the Moroccans to the warehouse and did not help with the robbery, El Pais reported, quoting police sources. http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,114730,00.html

[NousDefionsDoc]

SPAIN: Moroccan investigators say they have identified a
scion of a wealthy Casablanca family with close ties to
the senior Al-Qaeda terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi as the
architect of the Madrid bombings, according to Reuters.

DNA samples from other family members have been sent to
Spain from Morocco to help track down the man who is now
expected to become the subject of a Europe-wide hunt. The
36-year-old, who is married to an American , is believed to
have activated terrorist cells in Spain last year after he
fled across the Strait of Gibraltar following the
Casablanca bombings. He is said to have maintained links
to Morocco's Salafist Jihad, the terrorist group blamed for
the Casablanca bombings, but has established his own
network of cells called Hassam, meaning "the final
solution".

It has been learnt that Hamid Langiri, the head of the
Moroccan Security Directorate, believes that the suspect -
who cannot be named for legal reasons - is on the run in
Europe. "He is from the upper tier of the merchant class,"
said Mohamed Dafir, an adviser to the directorate.

"Langiri has intelligence that he was in Madrid before the
bombing."

Seven Moroccans, including Jamal Zougam, the suspected cell
leader, have been arrested in Spain following the bomb
attacks on Madrid's suburban rail network 11 days ago that
killed 202 people and injured about 1500. Zarqawi, a
Jordanian suspected of orchestrating attacks on coalition
troops in Iraq, is now thought to have been the ultimate
mastermind of both the Casablanca and Madrid bombings.

[lrd]

Associated Press
April 4, 2004SPAIN0404
MADRID, Spain - Three suspects in the Madrid railway bombings blew themselves up Saturday in a building while surrounded by police, killing one special forces agent and wounding 11 police officers, the interior minister said.

. . . .

He said police believe some of the suspects may have carried out the March 11 train bombings that killed 191 people and wounded more than 1,800.

. . . .

http://www.startribune.com/stories/484/4703528.html

[Solid]

I just read this in the Times:

April 4, 2004
Blast in Madrid Kills 3 Suspects in Train Attack
By DALE FUCHS

MADRID, Sunday, April 4 — Three men believed to be responsible for the Madrid train bombings blew themselves up inside an apartment house here on Saturday night as the police prepared to assault the building, officials said. The blast also killed one officer and wounded at least 11 others.

The acting interior minister, �ngel Acebes, said the men, on spotting police special agents, shouted in Arabic and fired shots through the window of the building in Leganés, a working-class district of Madrid where many immigrants live.

The police, who began the raid at about 6 p.m., according to news reports, evacuated the building the men were in and surrounding apartment buildings. When the police moved to storm the building, around 9 p.m., according to news reports, "the terrorists set off a powerful explosion, blowing themselves up," Mr. Acebes said. The blast gutted the lower floor and tore off the roof of the building, Mr. Acebes said.

Among the dead, he said, were "some of the presumed authors" of the March 11 railway blasts that killed 191 people and wounded more than 1,400. Since those bombings, Spanish authorities have arrested 24 people, mostly Moroccans or Spanish residents of Moroccan origin, and have jailed 14 of them. This is the first time in the case, however, that the Spanish authorities have attempted a raid of this scale.

Early in the week, Mr. Acebes said the investigation pointed to the Moroccan Islamic Combatant Group, which the authorities have linked to the terror network Al Qaeda and have accused in the suicide bombings last year in Casablanca, Morocco. On Thursday, a Spanish High Court judge, Juan del Olmo, issued six European arrest warrants in the case: five for Moroccan men and one for a Tunisian man, Sarhane Ben Abdelmajid Fakhet, whom he called the "leader and coordinator" of the train attacks.

Mr. Acebes refused to say whether the authorities believed that Mr. Abdelmajid had been one of the men in the apartment house. He also said it was "too early to tell" whether there had been more than three men in the house and whether anyone had escaped before the explosion.

Asked whether the raid was prompted by suspicions that the men were planning to plant a bomb in the future, Mr. Acebes did not answer directly, saying, "We came to the apartment as a consequence of the police investigation under way since the attacks." The authorities involved in the investigation, he added, were "working very intensely, meticulously and professionally and making great advances."

He called the performance of the officers in the raid "brilliant," and he expressed sympathy for the family of the killed officer, a 41-year-old man who had a wife and two children.

Many details of the police operation on Saturday remained unclear, including how many agents had been involved and why, after three weeks of quiet arrests and questioning, the authorities had decided to change tactics with a full-blown assault.

The raid came one day after a partially assembled bomb had been found beneath a high-speed rail line linking Madrid to Seville. The explosive in the device, Goma 2, was the same as the one used in the March 11 attacks, officials said Saturday. The bomb could not have exploded — officials say the person who was planting it might have been scared off before finishing — but it prompted the government to send in the army to help guard the tracks.

The Spanish news media have widely reported that a man previously linked to a Qaeda cell in Spain, Jamal Zougam, was believed to be the mastermind of the train bombings. But the arrest warrants this week singled out Mr. Abdelmajid, describing him as a "catalyzing agent" who "raised awareness of jihad" among his circle. He "had manifested specifically since 2003 that he was preparing a violent act in Spain, specifically in the Madrid area," the warrant said.

Spanish news media have said Mr. Abdelmajid was a resident of Madrid who worked as a real estate agent and lived in a middle-class neighborhood.

Pictures of Mr. Abdelmajid and the five Moroccan men in the warrants were published in newspapers throughout the country. One of the men, Said Berraj, is "supposedly linked to Al Qaeda based on a meeting held in October 2000 in Istanbul with three other presumed members of Al Qaeda," the warrant said.

In the past year, Spain has become a focus of global terrorism investigations. Since the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks in New York and Washington, D.C., Spanish police have arrested dozens of men suspected of belonging to a cell of Al Qaeda.
---------------

Solid

[lrd]

Sadr tells followers not to attack Spanish troops
BAGHDAD, Apr 19, 2004 (Xinhua via COMTEX) --

Firebrand Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr has told his followers not to attack Spanish troops after Madrid announced it would pull its soldiers out of Iraq, his spokesman said Monday.

"We call (on them) to ensure the security of Spanish troops until they leave Iraq as long as these forces do not perpetrate aggressions against the Iraqi people," said Qais al-Khazaali in the Iraqi city of Najaf.

"We urge other countries which assign troops to the coalition in Iraq to follow the example of Spain and to withdraw their forces to save the lives of their soldiers," he added.

Spain's Foreign Minister Miguel Moratinos told his Egyptian counterpart Ahmad Maher over phone on Sunday that Madrid will withdraw its some 1,300 troops from Iraq soon, the Egyptian official MENA news agency reported.

Moratinos told Maher in a phone call that "Spain was keen that Egypt would come second, following the US, to be informed about the Spanish intention," MENA said.

Copyright 2004 XINHUA NEWS AGENCY.

[lrd]

Report: FBI Finds Link Between 9/11, Madrid Bombs
Sun Nov 28, 2004 08:37 AM ET

MADRID (Reuters) - The FBI has established the clearest link yet between the March 11 Madrid train bombings and the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the United States, a Spanish newspaper reported Sunday.

The FBI has told Spanish investigators that one of three men believed to have planned the Sept. 11 attacks from Spain in the summer of 2001 also gave the order to carry out the Madrid blasts, the newspaper ABC reported.

The train bombings killed 191 people and wounded 1,900 three days before a general election. In videotapes, the bombers claimed the attacks in the name of al Qaeda in Europe and said they were in revenge for Spain sending troops to Iraq and Afghanistan.

Investigators have long concluded that the Sept. 11 attacks were partially planned in Spain in July 2001.

Hijacker Mohammed Atta, believed to have piloted one of the airliners that crashed into New York's World Trade Center, visited Spain two months before the attacks and met two men.

One was Ramzi bin al-Shaibah, who is being held by U.S. authorities, while the other was unidentified.

ABC said investigators now believe that third man was the one who in December 2003 activated the Qaeda cell that carried out the March 11 attacks, which Spaniards call "our Sept. 11."

ABC said investigators had narrowed his identity down to three candidates and believed he was a lieutenant of Mustafa Setmarian, increasingly considered to have been a leader of the Madrid train bombers and who may have held a leadership role for al Qaeda in Europe.

Setmarian, aged 45 and of Syrian origin, was already wanted as part of a separate investigation into Islamic militant activity in Spain and is the subject of a Spanish wanted notice issued through Interpol.

The State Department said on Nov. 18 it was offering a $5 million reward for information leading to the capture of Setmarian, also known as Mustafa Setmariam Nasar or Abu Musab al-Suri. It described him as an al Qaeda member and former trainer at "terrorist camps" in Afghanistan.

Some 30 people are in custody or under court supervision for the train bombings for which one minor has so far been convicted. Seven prime suspects are dead and two or three other suspected collaborators remain at large.


http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=worldNews&storyID=6934719