Iraq and Foreign Volunteers

[Airbornelawyer]

This partially addresses some questions CoLawman had a few days ago.

Iraq and Foreign Volunteers
http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/051117_iraqforeignvol.pdf
PDF, 9 pages

[jatx]

Thanks for the link, AL. This report has been the subject of some recent contention. Although CSIS estimates that only about 12% of insurgents in Iraq are foreigners, this past week several statements were made by Iraqi security officials claiming that 90% of the suicide bombers are foreigners, mostly of Saudi origin. I'll look for a link to the source of those statements, but in the meantime it seems that

1. CSIS does not have an incentive to falsify statistics (or the reputation for ever having done so), while Iraq's officials would clearly benefit from placing blame outside of their own sphere of influence.

2. Perhaps both are right. While the insurgency's main corpus may be composed of Iraqis, it may be the case that the most violent attacks depend on a supply of foreign volunteers.

I'd be interested in hearing how others would square these two conflicting sets of claims...:munchin

[The Reaper]

All insurgents are not suicide bombers.

TR

[jatx]

All insurgents are not suicide bombers.

TR

Sir,

That was my point under #2. You put it more succinctly. I suppose my main question is whether or not the Iraqi insurgents would take up the task of suicide attacks if the supply of foreign volunteers were interdicted. The various possible answers would seem to imply very different strategies.

[Airbornelawyer]

The source for the 90% claim is the "study" by Reuven Paz noted in the CSIS report. As noted in the report, Paz's methodology was deeply flawed.

[Airbornelawyer]

Some more on the foreign fighters debate:

http://counterterror.typepad.com/the_counterterrorism_blog/2005/11/more_mistakes_b.html

More Mistakes by the Washington Post on the Foreign Fighters "Debate"

As much as I am fatigued by the seemingly endless "fisking" of misinformed articles on Iraq's foreign fighters, I cannot resist drawing attention to yet another recent Washington Post article which twists the research and conclusions of Anthony Cordesman at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

...Read the rest

[CoLawman]

Thanks for the posts AL and agree that it sheds some light on the reason Syria is the gateway.

[NousDefionsDoc]

I haven't read the articles (I will, just tired today). I'm not sure a general percentage is relevant. What I think they should be looking at is what percentage of the leadership is foreign. Insurgent groups tend not to do very well without a dynamic or threatening leadership. Most of the insurgent gen pop are probably either:
1. On the fence
2. Adventurers
3. Have family members threatened etc.

I recently read a post from a guy there in which they are finding "suicide bombers" chained to the vehicles, something we saw here a few years ago and I highly suspect came via the IRA. Most groups have long put fail-safe systems in their vehicles in case the the martyr loses nerve.

I would think it would be fairly difficult to replace Zarqawi or Bin Laden, it takes a few years to develop the Che Mystic.

Just 02