WHAT Are They Thinking?

[Cincinnatus]

THE NEW YORK POST
September 19, 2005

WHY TEHRAN HOPES FOR WAR
By AMIR TAHERI

http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/opedcolumnists/52954.htm

INCREDIBLE though it may sound, there are signs that Tehran may be preparing for a military confrontation with the United States — and has convinced itself that it can win.
The first sign came last June, with the election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president of the Islamic Republic, an event that completed the conquest of all levers of power by the most radical elements of the establishment.

Since then, the revolutionary factions have conducted a little-publicized purge of the military, the security apparatus, the civil service and state-owned corporations and media.

Among those replaced: the defense minister, the commander-in-chief of the regular army and his four deputies, 11 senior commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and five commanders of the paramilitary Mobilization of the Dispossessed — plus the intelligence and security minister and the interior minister (who controls the police and the gendarmerie). Also noteworthy is the appointment of military officers to posts normally held by civilians, such as governors, mayors and directors of major public corporations.

But perhaps the surest sign is the military buildup under way in the five provinces bordering Iraq. The region, with a population of 20 million, has been put under the control of the IRGC, which has also taken over units of the regular army (including the 88th Division) and the border police. Iran is estimated to have 250,000 troops in the area, its biggest military buildup since the 1988 end of the Iran-Iraq war.

One of the first acts of the new Ahmadinejad-led Cabinet was to approve a $700 million "emergency" fund to be spent at the discretion of "Supreme Guide" Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for "sacred defense purposes."

The new administration is also speeding up defense spending. The five-year plan approved by Khamenei last year aimed at doubling the military budget by 2010 — but, thanks to rising oil revenues, most of it could now be done by 2008.

In recent weeks, top regime figures — including Khamenei and Ahmadinejad — have made a series of unscheduled visits to Mashad, Iran's second-largest city. One curious fact revealed in these visits is that a bunker-like structure to house the "supreme guide" is being finished near the holy shrine of Reza, the Eighth Imam. The complex could also house the top echelon of government, including the president, the Cabinet and members of parliament.

Mashad is 600 miles from Tehran and as far as possible from U.S. firepower in Iraq and the Persian Gulf. America is also expected to shrink from attacks against the Mashad bunker for fear of collateral damage to the "holy shrine" of the imam a few hundred yards away.

One may guess the outline of Tehran's scenario for what it believes is an inevitable clash with the United States.

Suppose that the tussle over Iran's nuclear plans goes to the Security Council — which fails to take a decision, thanks to Russian and Chinese vetoes, and America (after much huffing and puffing) launches airstrikes against Iran's nuclear installations.

Iran's retaliation could begin with orders to the forces it controls inside Iraq to attack U.S. and British troops. The Lebanese branch of Hezbollah would launch massive rocket attacks against Israel, while Hamas and Islamic Jihad (whose leaders spent the past month in Tehran, meeting Khamenei and his aides) would begin suicide operations against Israel from Jerusalem and the West Bank.

Iran-allied Hazara Shiites might begin strikes against Kabul, the Afghan capital, from the west, while Pushtun warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and the remnants of the Taliban attack across all of Afghanistan.

U.S./U.K. forces might answer with a conventional attack out of Iraq. But the Iranians could retreat to the Zagross mountain range, the first line of Iran's natural defences. The IRGC is now building several new bases to bolster this line. The bases would assure supplies for a quarter of a million troops, and provide shelter for half a million refugees from the border.

The Americans could attempt to "decapitate" Iran with cruise missiles against "regime targets" in Tehran. But the regime would already be in Mashad, protected by the Eighth Imam.

Meanwhile, Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz — thereby choking off the world supply of oil, which would surely top $100 a barrel, plunging the global economy into a crisis.

The U.N. Security Council would surely meet in emergency, perhaps forcing the U.S. to veto a vote for a ceasefire. Global TV networks would air images of "indiscriminate carnage" and "wanton destruction" in Iranian cities, while marches in Washington and dozens of other cities would feature Hollywood celebrities and others calling for impeachment.

At this point, the Iranian strategy/fantasy would expect the U.S. media and Congress to revolt against President Bush and his "pre-emptive" strategy — obliging Bush to accept a U.N.-brokered cease-fire and withdraw his forces, and the Americans to leave Iraq and Afghanistan.

The victory would bring the Islamic Republic new domestic legitimacy, allowing it proceed to crush its internal opponents as "enemies of the nation and of Islam." It could also speed up its nuclear-weapons and long-range missile programs without being harassed by Washington.

At the next stage of what Ahmadinejad sees as "a clash of civilizations," Iran would become "the core power" of a new "Islamic pole" in a multipolar system with China, the European Union and Latin America (under the leadership of Venezuela's Hugo Chavez) emerging as other "poles."

The Islamic Republic would then be free to proceed to address what Khamenei has described as its "greatest historic task": the destruction of Israel.

Sounds outlandish? Well, it is. The Islamic Republic is a fragile structure in a zone of political earthquakes. Logically, the last thing it should want is war.

Nevertheless, former President Muhammad Khatami has warned that Tehran may be boxing itself into a position in which it will either have to surrender or fight.



Comments?

[aricbcool]

The author forgets about Afghanistan, its proximity to Iran, and our ability to field troops there. (see attached image)

--Aric

[Maisy]

Is there perhaps a belief by the author that Allied troops would be out of Afganistan within 3-5 years, as per the timeline given to complete the buildup?

[tyrsnbdr]

The author forgets about Afghanistan, its proximity to Iran, and our ability to field troops there. (see attached image)

--Aric


We have them surrounded!! Sorry, I couldn’t help that.

Also, IIRC, UN is alledgely supposed to take over the OEF mission around Jan ’07. So, we should be available to have tea in Tehran when they officially invite us there.

[504PIR]

Interesting plan, however they do not seem to take into their consideration a sizeable minority of their young people are more interested in rock music, pepsi, internet and western culture than islamic jihad. Personally I believe the best way to handle Iran is to promote internal discord in the country. Fortunately the ruling government is already doing that on its own.

Of course the Iranians did not exactly display a high level of military skill in the Iran-Iraq war ether.

[Huey14]

The article appears full of conjecture to me.

[stakk4]

My Main Concern.........

........is that this article alone will give them an excuse to scare up oil prices. I saw a pretty good cartoon, I think it was in the Paraglide, of an Army recruiter with a sign in the window that said "Free Tank Of Gas With Enlistment" and a car screeching to a halt to enlist. Heh.

S

[Cincinnatus]

The article appears full of conjecture to me.

No doubt about that, but is it reasonable conjecture? I've got Pollack's book on Iran, but haven't read much of it, yet. There are folks here who are better judges of how much weight to assign these concerns than I... and I'm always trying to learn. ;)

[Detcord]

The greatest single mistake a fighter can make is to underestimate an opponent.

Never, ever, underestimate your enemy...

[Maisy]

Suppose that the tussle over Iran's nuclear plans goes to the Security Council — which fails to take a decision, thanks to Russian and Chinese vetoes, and America (after much huffing and puffing) launches airstrikes against Iran's nuclear installations.


Tehran six months off Nuclear Arms ability: Israel (http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,16668603%255E31477,00.html)

Abraham Rabinovich
September 21, 2005
IRAN may be only six months away from acquiring the capability to produce nuclear weapons, Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom has claimed.

The assessment, which he said was based on Israeli intelligence, differs from US intelligence assessments that Iran could not begin producing nuclear weapons for another decade.

"Our experts say they are very close to this (production) stage," Mr Shalom said. "They may need only another six months."

He did not say how long it would take Iran to produce weapons. The warning came as British diplomats said most members of the 35-nation International Atomic Energy Agency were in favour of referring Iran to the UN Security Council because of its nuclear program.

As member states of the nuclear watchdog met in Vienna to decide how to respond to Tehran's defiant stand, British, French and German officials lobbied for possible international sanctions against Iran.

A British diplomat said: "We have a critical mass of support."

He said the approach set out by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in his speech to the UN General Assembly on Saturday had hardened attitudes towards Tehran.

About 20 countries are now thought to favour referral to the Security Council, including all EU states, the US, Australia, Singapore and Peru.

Twelve of the Non-Aligned Movement states are opposed but may be persuaded to abstain. The strongest opponent, Russia, says matters concerning Iran's nuclear program should be dealt with only by the IAEA.

The Bush administration, which has long campaigned to have Iran referred to the UN, said yesterday that the move was "long overdue".

Israel has been watching with caution the negotiations over North Korea's nuclear program.

The head of the Knesset, or parliamentary, foreign affairs and defence committee, Yuval Steinitz, said North Korea had provided long-range missiles to Iran, Iraq, Syria, Egypt and Libya.

North Korea had supplied Iran, as well as Egypt, with technology for the No Dong 1200km range surface-to-surface missile, capable of delivering nuclear warheads.

Israel has always maintained a policy of ambiguity regarding its own nuclear capacity, neither confirming nor denying it. There is no pressure regarding the issue from the US or Europe and none is expected.

If such pressure should arise in the future, Israel is likely to declare it is the only country in the world whose existence is openly threatened by some of its neighbours, notably Iran, where some senior officials have openly spoken of their desire to see Israel destroyed.

Israeli observers believe the European nations are reluctant to put pressure on Iran over its nuclear development for fear Tehran would substantially raise the price of its oil.

[Huey14]

It's probably in Israel's best interests to claim such a close timeframe.

[VelociMorte]

EU Military Attachés Stage Walk-Out at Iran Parade
By AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE, TEHRAN


EU military attachés walked out in protest at a parade in Tehran Sept. 22 after ballistic missiles were rolled past carrying vitriolic anti-U.S. and Israeli slogans, diplomats told AFP.

“There was a common position among the European Union members that, if the military parade included any slogans that attacked our allies, we would leave,” said a diplomat.

“The military attachés from the embassies of France, Italy, Greece and Poland were present at the parade, and when they saw the slogans they promptly left,” said another diplomat.



At the parade, Iran showed off six of its Shahab-3 medium-range ballistic missiles sporting banners reading “Death to America,” “We will crush America under our feet,” “Death to Israel” and “Israel must be wiped off the face of the earth.”

“They may be just slogans, but for us they are unacceptable,” one of the diplomats said.

The military event was held just south of Tehran to mark the start of “Sacred Defense Week,” dedicated to the hundreds of thousands of Iranians killed after the forces of former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein invaded in 1980.

It also coincided with mounting tensions between Iran and the EU over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

[The Reaper]

If we let this happen, the genie is truly out of the bottle.

TR

[VelociMorte]

Kh-55 Granat / AS-15 Kent
Three aircraft versions of this missile are known as: Kh-55 (Article 120, alias RKV-500, NATO's AS-15a), Kh-55-OK (article 124), Kh-55SM (Article 125, alias RKV-500B, NATO's AS-15B). Production of a stretched-range version, the "Kh-55SM", began in 1986. The improved Kh-55MS, AS-15B Kent reported NATO-codename, version was fielded in the 1990s. The X-55SM modification provided for increased range with the installation of expendable conformal external fuel tanks, giving it an estimated range of 3,000 kilometers (1,860 miles).

The Kh-55 has been in Russian service since 1984 as a nuclear-armed air-launched cruise missile. The missile carries a 200 kt nuclear warhead. The Kh-55 is the Soviet counterpart to American AGM-86 ALCM cruise missile. The Kh-55 cruise missiles are deployed with strategic bombers Tu-95 MS and Tu-160.

Each Tu-95MS bomber can carry up to six X-55 missiles, located on catapult type launching drum installation in the bomb compartment of the aircraft. In addition to the internal rotary launcher, the Bear can carry more Kh-55s externally, though in an overload flight condition. Two are carried on a stores attachment between the fuselage and inboard engine, and three are carried on a stores attachment between the two engines on each wing, for a total of ten missiles. In two loading compartments of supersonic Tu-160 can be located 12 long range cruise missiles (with the additional tanks) or 24 conventional cruise missiles.

The only cruise missile carriers are aircraft of strategic aviation - Tu-95MS and Tu-160. The arrangement of missilesr of this type on the Euro-strategic bombers Tu-22M2 and Tu-22M3, according to the design project leader of BAR - I.S.Selezneva, was not provided for, although similar prospects repeatedly were discussed on the pages of the western press.

After the collapse of the USSR some of the missiles and their carrier aircraft remained beyond the limits of Russia, in particular, in Ukraine and in Kazakhstan. At the end of 1999 there were 575 cruise missiles of air basing X-55 and X-55SM delivered from Ukraine to Russia by rail transport on account of liquidation of debt for the deliveries of gas.

[VelociMorte]

Cruise Missiles were Smuggled to China and Iran by Citizens of Russia, Ukraine, and Australia – Foreign Ministry
The twelve 18 X-55 cruise missiles, also known as Kh-55s or AS-15s, were smuggled to China and Iran by an international criminal group of traders in arms, including citizens of Russia, Ukraine, and Australia.
Ukraine Foreign Ministry’s deputy speaker Dmytro Svystkov has said this commenting on the illegal export of cruise missiles from Ukraine during 2000-2001.
According to the press-service of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, D.Svystkov has noted that in 2004 the Ukrainian Security Service revealed and stopped the activities of the international criminal group of arms traders.
The investigation established that these people, under the guise of export from Ukraine to Russia, smuggled 12 cruise missiles to China and Iran during 2000-2001.
A number of criminal cases have been brought on these facts.
According to D.Svystkov, the investigation has established that in the beginning of 2000, Russian citizens, using counterfeit documents, with assistance of a Ukrainian citizen, smuggled 6 missiles of X-55 CM type to China. Upon the deal, the Ukrainian party received a counterfeit certificate of missile delivery to the Russian Federation.
During May-June of 2001, citizens of Ukraine and Australia, using the similar counterfeit documents, on behalf of “Rosvooruzhenie” Russian state-owned company, illegally exported another 6 missiles of the same type and a KNO-120 complex of land equipment for their control to Iran.
D.Svystkov has stressed that the missiles were smuggled without warheads, and they can be used only with special jets.
At present the Appeal Court of Kyiv Oblast is examining the criminal case brought against one of the accomplices of the contraband to Iran, the investigation on this case was finished as early as in August of 2004.
Another accomplice of the contraband to China, a Russian citizen, was suspected of masterminding the sale, was arrested in Prague last July and was under an extradition request since that time.
Another two citizens, who took part in the contraband, perished in traffic accidents in 2002 and 2004.
As reported earlier by UNIAN, on March 18 the Financial Times reported that 12 cruise missiles were smuggled from Ukraine to Iran and China. The Financial Times quoted the U.S. embassy in Kyiv as saying it was "closely monitoring" a Ukrainian government investigation into the case and wanted the findings of the secret trial made public.
The United States accuses Iran of trying to secretly develop a nuclear weapons program. Tehran denies the charge, saying its nuclear program is only for power generation.
Prosecutor General Piskun was quoted as saying he understood Japan was concerned that the missiles delivered to China could have ended up in North Korea although there were no grounds to suspect such a transfer.

[Team Sergeant]

WHY TEHRAN HOPES FOR WAR

Comments?



If they do start a war with the United States, I'm changing my name, do a few botox injections and enlisting in the Army!!!!! :D I wouldn't miss this for the world! I've got 444 days of payback I'd like to give them.

TS

[VelociMorte]

During the invasion of Iraq in the Spring of 2003, American and British forces accomplished in about a month what Iranian forces had failed to do in eight years of war with Iraq between 1980 and 1988. During Operation "Earnest Will" (Kuwaiti Tanker re-flag Op), the U.S. Navy destroyed the Iranian Navy in a matter of days. Tehran cannot fail to appreciate that Iranian conventional forces would have little chance of resisting a conventional US military assault, but they seem to be intent on confronting "the Great Satan" at any cost. Iran will eventually develop or acquire nuclear weapons. Thus emboldened, the religious leadership of Iran could most likely imagine themselves in a position to take on the U.S. and/or Israel.

My assessment: Any confrontation initiated by Iran will involve unconventional (i.e. terrorist) attacks on U.S. infrastructure. (The recent capture of Iranian illegals passing through U.S. borders indicates this capability is already in place) This will probably be precluded by an attempt to cut off oil exports from the Arabian Gulf. The loss of imported Middle Eastern oil combined with an attack on U.S. power generation, oil refineries and offload facilities would set the stage for social unrest (think New Orleans) and a strong anti-Muslim sentiment in the U.S. This will cause other Muslim nations to deny the U.S. any potential docking, staging, and overflight rights. Faced with a transit through the Straight of Hormuz, U.S. Carrier Battle Groups would probably, and wisely, end up launching their assets from well out in the Indian Ocean. Not coincidentally, most of Iran's military and nuclear facilities are located in Central and Northern Iran, at the fuzzy edge of strike range. Simultaneously, Iran would launch large-scale terrorist attacks across Iraq and Afghanistan in order to tie-up the troops already deployed in those areas. Conventional Iranian forces would attempt to sweep into Southern Iraq under the pretext of reclaiming Iranian territory lost to Iraq in 1980-88, thus cutting off the majority of U.S. lines of supply into Iraq. Iran will launch their long-range missiles at Israel with no telling what for a payload. Israel will respond by going nuclear. Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and every other predominantly Muslim Middle Eastern country will attack Israel. Left with few options other than turning the Middle East into a giant glass parking lot, and being the "good guys" that we are, the U.S. will eventually settle for a negotiated peace. Iran will have gained Iraq and the long wished-for destruction of Israel. We'll be left holding the bag.

Optionally, we could launch massive pre-emptive conventional strikes destroying Iran's military, C3I, nuclear facilities, infrastructure, and government, and just get this shit over with now.

[VelociMorte]

The Washington Times


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Israelis urge U.S. to stop Iran's nuke goals
By David R. Sands
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
Published September 30, 2005

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The United States and its allies must act to stop Iran's nuclear programs -- by force if necessary -- because conventional diplomacy will not work, three senior Israeli lawmakers from across the political spectrum warned yesterday.
As a last resort, they said, Israel itself would act unilaterally to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear arms.
Iran will not be deterred "by anything short of a threat of force," said Arieh Eldad, a member of Israel's right-wing National Union Party, part of a delegation of Knesset members visiting Washington this week.
"They won't be stopped unless they are convinced their programs will be destroyed if they continue," he said.
Yuval Steinitz, chairman of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, said the best hope was for the United States and other major powers to make it clear to Iranian leaders now there was "no chance they will ever see the fruits of a nuclear program."
"Threats of sanctions and isolation alone will not do it," said Mr. Steinitz.
Yosef Lapid, head of the centrist opposition Shinui Party in the Knesset, added that Israel "will not live under the threat of an Iranian nuclear bomb."
"We feel we are obliged to warn our friends that Israel should not be pushed into a situation where we see no other solution but to act unilaterally" against Iran, he said.
Mr. Steinitz, a member of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's ruling Likud Party, stopped just short of a direct threat to bomb suspect Iranian nuclear sites.
Mr. Steinitz said Israeli officials estimate that Tehran is only two to three years away from developing a nuclear bomb and that time was running out for the world to act.
"We see an Iranian bomb as a devastating, existential threat to Israel, to the entire Middle East, to all Western interests in the region," he said.
"Despite all the different circumstances, we see similarities to what happened in the 1930s, when people underestimated the real problem or focused on other dangers. For us, either the world will tackle Iran in advance or all of us will face the consequences."
The Bush administration has led the diplomatic campaign to pressure Iran, claiming the Islamic regime for two decades has secretly pursued a nuclear arsenal. The board of the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog agency in Vienna over the weekend concluded Iran had violated international pledges on its nuclear programs and said the matter could be referred to the U.N. Security Council.
Iranian officials harshly condemned the resolution and insist the country has the right to pursue a peaceful nuclear program to meet its energy needs.
Israel has acted unilaterally before to halt a nuclear program by a hostile neighbor, bombing Iraq's Osirak reactor in 1981. Widely condemned at the time, the surprise raid is now credited with dealing a major setback to Saddam Hussein's nuclear ambitions.
Mr. Eldad said Israelis across the political spectrum see Iran as the country's most serious threat and one that cannot be ignored.
But he added that unilateral action by Israel was the "worst possible scenario," likely to inflame opinion throughout the Muslim world.
"If we have to do it, we'll do it," he said with a shrug. "If the United States and the world community do it, there is a chance the issue can be contained. If Israel has to do it alone, there is no chance the conflict can be contained."
Mr. Lapid said he was sensitive to criticism that Israel was trying to push Washington into a potentially armed conflict with Iran that many Americans now oppose.
"Our mission is to point out the dangers we see, to ourselves and to our friends," he said. "Avoiding speaking the truth does not mean you can then avoid facing the consequences of those facts," he said.
The lawmakers met with their U.S. counterparts, as well as with senior administration officials, saying they highlighted the Iranian danger in all their meetings.
Asked if he thought the message got through, Mr. Steinitz said, "I did not get the feeling we were talking to the walls."

[VelociMorte]

Iran Leader Calls for Israel's Destruction
By NASSER KARIMI, Associated Press Writer


Iran's hard-line president called for Israel to be "wiped off the map" and said a new wave of Palestinian attacks will destroy the Jewish state, state-run media reported Wednesday.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad also denounced attempts to recognize Israel or normalize relations with it.

"There is no doubt that the new wave (of attacks) in Palestine will wipe off this stigma (Israel) from the face of the Islamic world," Ahmadinejad told students Wednesday during a Tehran conference called "The World without Zionism."

"Anybody who recognizes Israel (that would be us) will burn in the fire of the Islamic nation's fury, (while) any (Islamic leader) who recognizes the Zionist regime means he is acknowledging the surrender and defeat of the Islamic world," Ahmadinejad said.

Ahmadinejad also repeated the words of the founder of Iran's Islamic revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who called for the destruction of Israel.

"As the imam said, Israel must be wiped off the map," said Ahmadinejad, who came to power in August and replaced Mohammad Khatami, a reformist who advocated international dialogue and tried to improve Iran's relations with the West.

Ahmadinejad referred to Israel's recent withdrawal from the Gaza Strip as a "trick," saying Gaza was already a part of Palestinian lands and the pullout was designed to win acknowledgment of Israel by Islamic states.

"The fighting in Palestine is a war between the (whole) Islamic nation and the world of arrogance," Ahmadinejad said, using Tehran's propaganda epithet for the United States and Israel. "Today, Palestinians are representing the Islamic nation against arrogance."

Iran does not recognize the existence of Israel and has often called for its destruction.

Israel has been at the forefront of nations calling and end to Iran's nuclear program, which the United States and many others in the West say is aimed at acquiring weapons of mass destruction. Iran says the program is for generating electricity.

White House press secretary Scott McClellan said Ahmadinejad's comment "reconfirms what we have been saying about the regime in Iran. It underscores the concerns we have about Iran's nuclear intentions."

French Foreign Minister Jean-Baptiste Mattei condemned Ahmadinejad's remarks "with the utmost firmness."

Harsh words for Israel are common in Iran, especially at this time of year, the end of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. In Iran, this Friday — the last Muslim day of prayer in the Ramadan holiday — has been declared Quds Day, or Jerusalem Day. Rallies were slated in support of Palestinians — and against Israel's occupation of parts of the city and other Palestinian lands.

Other Iranian politicians also have issued anti-Israeli statements, in attempts to whip up support for Friday's nationwide Quds Day demonstrations.

But Ahmadinejad's strident anti-Israeli statements on the eve of the demonstration were harsher than those issued during the term of the reformist Khatami and harkened back to Khomeini's fiery speeches. Ahmadinejad was a longtime member of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards, which even operates a division dubbed the Quds Division, a rhetorical reference to Tehran's hopes of one day ending Israel's domination of Islam's third-holiest city.

After his election, Ahmadinejad received the support of the powerful hard-line Revolutionary Guards, who report directly to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Last year, a senior member of the guards attended a meeting that called for and accepted applications for suicide bombers to target U.S. troops and Israelis.

Iran announced earlier this year that it had fully developed solid fuel technology for missiles, a major breakthrough that increases their accuracy.

The Shahab-3, with a range of 810 miles to 1,200 miles, is capable of delivering a nuclear warhead to Israel and U.S. forces in the Middle East.