OBL Dead?

[ghuinness]

Excerpt from Stratfor:


Al Qaeda: Bin Laden Fading Away?
April 29, 2005 17 26 GMT

Summary

A statement posted April 28 on a jihadist Web site said there are reports that Osama bin Laden has died. However, the message went on to say that he is still alive but could die soon and that Muslims should prepare for his death. Furthermore, the al Qaeda chief is expected to appear soon in a new videotape to be aired by an Arabic news channel. Bin Laden is likely hiding out in Pakistan's northwestern tribal belt, which has seen a great deal of movement by Pakistani and U.S. troops in recent weeks. Fearing that he could be captured soon, bin Laden probably will give his right-hand man, Ayman al-Zawahiri, even more air time than he has received so far.

Analysis

Rumors are flying about the possible death of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. The jihadist Web site http://www.islam-minbar.net featured a statement April 28, written in jihadist rhetorical-style language, with a headline that implied bin Laden died. The message then went on to say that he is alive, but could die soon, and Muslims should prepare for that eventuality.

The statement, though unverified, marks a significant shift in al Qaeda's record. Past al Qaeda statements have said in generic terms that the organization's struggle would continue, even if one of the al Qaeda leaders were to die, and that the jihadist movement is not dependent on bin Laden's life (This was said in light of counterterrorism operations around the world, which took down several top al Qaeda members.) This, however, is the first definitive statement that bin Laden could be approaching his death.

[Air.177]

Billy Waugh said OBL is dead, that's good enough for me.

[Sdiver]

I, like a great deal many of us, don't want to hear about OBL being dead, we want to SEE him dead.

[tyrsnbdr]

I want to see the picture of a SOF soldier pulling the AK out of his cold dead fingers. You QP's deserve that kind of reward.

[Cincinnatus]

"Billy Waugh said OBL is dead, that's good enough for me."

This is news to me. Can you elaborate, please?

TIA

[Ambush Master]

"Billy Waugh said OBL is dead, that's good enough for me."

This is news to me. Can you elaborate, please?

TIA

Billy and I go back quite a ways. He told me, personally, on several occasions that in his opinion OBL was dead. That is what Air was referring to.

[Air.177]

Billy and I go back quite a ways. He told me, personally, on several occasions that in his opinion OBL was dead. That is what Air was referring to.

That and he said so in the book Hunting the Jackal.

[NousDefionsDoc]

If he is dead, we need to show the world and do it right this time. Or we'll have another freakin' Che on our hands.

[jon448]

If he is dead, we need to show the world and do it right this time. Or we'll have another freakin' Che on our hands.
I think either way we're going to because people are going to look at OBL as someone who defied the big bad US. If he dies especially at our hands he'll become a martyr where as if he dies from natural causes it won't be quite as bad. Thats my .02 worth anyways.

[ghuinness]

The reason I posted the article is not because I believe OBL is alive, on the contrary, I believe he is dead.

I think it is interesting that AQ might be getting close to admitting he is dead and why would they do that? They need to rejuvenate and bring in fresh blood like OBL's son?

my .02

[Cincinnatus]

I thought I remembered something about this from "Hunting the Jackal", but since the book came out ther've been tapes and reports of people having met w/ OBL, so I tend to think that he's still out there. I'm not sure that AQ could keep his death quiet for long. I wondered whether Waugh had said something more recently, or more definitively.

Thanks, AM, Air.

[Ambush Master]

I have always contended that even if we KNEW he was dead, keep it quiet, do not allow him to become a Martyr !!! Deny him the highest form of reward !!! Simply allow him to become one of "The Disappeared"!!

[Roguish Lawyer]

I have always contended that even if we KNEW he was dead, keep it quiet, do not allow him to become a Martyr !!! Deny him the highest form of reward !!! Simply allow him to become one of "The Disappeared"!!

You may be right, but if he is dead, I think we should think about publicizing it for the purpose of ensuring public support for the war effort. I think the perceived failure to get OBL may undermine support for the current administration.

[lksteve]

I have always contended that even if we KNEW he was dead, keep it quiet, do not allow him to become a Martyr !!!
i'm not sure martyrdom is coincidental with death from kidney failure...if we kill him, fine...but there's a real good chance he's going to die of natural causes...and if that happens, the jihadiis will seal his carcass up in a cave subito...

[shootandloot]

Has there been a video of OBL released since the "election video" from last November? I think an argument can be made that the death of OBL will have little or no effect on AQ operations, however what kind of moral blow do you guys think this would be to followers of AQ? Do they view themselves as having the ability to move on following his death, or will they they see his death a breaking point? Personally, I agree with lksteve; his body will be sealed in a cave never to be seen again.

[Spartan359]

Personally I'd like to see his head on a pike before I believe a rumor.

[Jimbo]

i'm not sure martyrdom is coincidental with death from kidney failure

These two articles cast some doubt on the assertion that bin Laden has kidney problems:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A18699-2002Jul29?language=printer
http://mason.gmu.edu/~amelmed/PUBP710%20Spring%2005/Strange%20Tales/04Oct%20%20Atlantic%20%20%20Bergen%20%20Hunt%20for %20Osama.htm