View Full Version : What are the Russian objectives in Ukraine?
GratefulCitizen
02-27-2022, 14:04
The information war is in full swing.
Propaganda rules the airwaves.
Putin may be evil, but he’s not stupid.
Regardless of how it’s spun, Russia has its own purposes in invading Ukraine.
What might those purposes be?
One purpose was probably to fully secure the Crimean peninsula.
-They turned on the water again yesterday (removed the dam blocking the north Crimean canal).
-They’ve annexed nearby territory.
Another purpose might be to discourage/delay foreign investment in the development of oil/gas in Ukraine.
That’s probably been achieved.
Another purpose might be to demonstrate willingness to go to war rather than allow Ukraine to join NATO.
That’s been achieved.
Yet another purpose might be to drive up the price of energy.
That’s been achieved.
If Russia can secure certain terms for peace and gain control over critical territory, they may quickly end this and withdraw from most of Ukraine.
They’ll pay a big price, but is the price worth paying if it serves their long-term objectives?
The propaganda war may not be revealing Russia’s true objectives.
Time will tell.
Another purpose might be to demonstrate willingness to go to war rather than allow Ukraine to join NATO.
That’s been achieved.
Maybe not.
NATO never should have presented membership to Ukraine, and Ukraine never should have contemplated membership. It was a no go day 1 for Putin, openly stated by him.
The invasion has now effected the social cohesion of Ukrainians, united them in a single national sprit, one that Putin never foresaw.
That error and the worlds reaction, including the Russian citizen condemnation and arrest, is forcing Putin in a corner. If he continues the onslaught, as death and destruction mount, he loses for certain the SM battle, which up to now has been the NATO issue. With the new Ukraine mind set on sovereignty or death, Putin has to accept total war in Ukraine, or an understanding of coexistence with a new sovereign Ukraine, one spiritually united against Russian dominance that will never go away. Putin has created an insurgency and his own isolation.
I would not be surprised if he fell suddenly ill.
Maybe not.
NATO never should have presented membership to Ukraine, and Ukraine never should have contemplated membership. It was a no go day 1 for Putin, openly stated by him.
The invasion has now effected the social cohesion of Ukrainians, united them in a single national sprit, one that Putin never foresaw.
That error and the worlds reaction, including the Russian citizen condemnation and arrest, is forcing Putin in a corner. If he continues the onslaught, as death and destruction mount, he loses for certain the SM battle, which up to now has been the NATO issue. With the new Ukraine mind set on sovereignty or death, Putin has to accept total war in Ukraine, or an understanding of coexistence with a new sovereign Ukraine, one spiritually united against Russian dominance that will never go away. Putin has created an insurgency and his own isolation.
I would not be surprised if he fell suddenly ill.
Agreed.
There should have been more formal, rather than just verbal, agreement on NATO expansion east, including consideration for more Austria/Finland/Sweden friendly semi-alignment to keep from cornering Russia like a psychotic nuclear armed sh!t-house rat.
And following the Reagan doctrine of never letting those pipelines be built.
In having said that, while I can sympathise with Russia’s position from a clinical perspective, Putin’s seemingly irrational choice of near total war is completely unacceptable.
Oh yeah, I almost forgot.
Boy oh boy oh boy did I get this one wrong. :)
I called for Putin to max out Tension for profit and influence, but not irrevocably crossing the threshold of War.
It is fundamentally irrational and illogical.
I suspect there are unknowns that weighed heavily on Putin’s risk calculus in his decision making that hopefully emerge.
So not only do we need to understand the What, but also the Why.
Why did he make the call?
The best analogy I can come up with until new insights emerge is Putin seems to be mimicking Heath Ledger’s Joker from The Dark Night, specifically:
AAA = you
https://www.AAAtube.com/watch?v=_N7_wlyvXqM
“It’s not about the money, it’s about sending a message.”
I suspect there are unknowns that weighed heavily on Putin’s risk calculus in his decision making that hopefully emerge.
There are no unknowns with regard to Putins invading Ukraine. Your analysis in a previous post was organized in as rational argument/layer with reason and a conclusion that was plausible. The problem with that for Putin, Ukraine is not a rational argument, it's emotional. There was no way he would ever allow that to happen, He rather destroy the whole country than allow Ukraines admission to NATO.
YMMV, but it's that simple.
The Reaper
02-28-2022, 22:41
Why did he make the call?
Simple.
Because he can.
TR
Because he can
To what extent? A forty mile long convoy is a target of opportunity and examples a logistical staging problem. Attacking that convoy Should be a prime object, it would create havoc for Putin and draw his forces outside the city, or perhaps delay their entry into all urban centers.
For argument, suppose each vehicle is spaced 30' apart, 40 miles, 5280 'per mile 176 vehicle per mile, 7040 total. send dozens of teams to attack all along the route, but attack the rear first, while simultaneously hitting the middle and forward position, withdraw quickly, then randomly hit them with no pattern, targeting munitions and rockets, explosion causing personnel casualties, hit and run, the convoy becomes immobile.
Additionally:
Putin doesn’t really have an army, he has material strength and forced conscripts, which is why Putin has employed Wagner group/merc’s and Chechenia’s as his hardcore shock troops, which pointily, states a lack of confidence in his own troops and their ability to willingly carry out his orders.
We know the history between Russia and Chechen, If President Zelenskyy could contact and create an alliance with Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, against their common enemy, Putin invasion would collapse. With the success of the convoy destruction Kadyrov may be enticed.
It would be very dangerous outcome, the betrayal might provoke Putin demise, or his willingness to use nuclear weapons, which would force the west into the conflict and possible MMD.
Badger52
03-01-2022, 05:52
Another purpose might be to discourage/delay foreign investment in the development of oil/gas in Ukraine.
That’s probably been achieved.
Heh. At the moment you wrote that I was onboard. Get up, have a cup of coffee and this (link is at Fox Biz) (https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/shell-is-pulling-out-of-russia-dumping-gazprom-deal):
Shell is calling it quits in Russia and has announced plans to exit its relationship with Gazprom and related entities.
Ticker Security Last Change Change %
SHEL SHELL PLC 52.41 -1.79 -3.30%
On Monday, in a statement, CEO Ben van Beurden detailed the emotional decision.
"Our decision to exit is one we take with conviction," said van Beurden. "We cannot – and we will not – stand by. Our immediate focus is the safety of our people in Ukraine and supporting our people in Russia. In discussion with governments around the world, we will also work through the detailed business implications, including the importance of secure energy supplies to Europe and other markets, in compliance with relevant sanctions."
The unwinding of the joint venture includes a "27.5% stake in the Sakhalin-II liquefied natural gas facility, its 50% stake in the Salym Petroleum Development and the Gydan energy venture."
Apparently BP has done the same. Does this leave a mark?
It would be interesting to know what the Russian process is for using nukes. Is Putin able to unilaterally fire off nukes or is there a process that requires consent from other officials? Specifically related to the offensive use of nukes that is.
Also, for the 40 mile LOGPAC, hit the fuelers, this tactic worked against us perfecting in Baghdad. Curious to see if the Ukrainians will melt some asphalt and put some 300 pounders in the highway as well as get some EFP's in place. I would imagine they have hydropresses in country, would like to think that some advisor would have demonstrated how to build EFPs but given our current leadership I doubt it.
Whatever Putin goal was is now unreachable. He's lost the war and now has decided to totally destroy Ukraine.
He lost because of the these five examples of fearlessness. Ukrainians, especially the old women are determine to confront the Russian army unarmed.
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-60558621
tom kelly
03-01-2022, 19:30
The "Invasion" has become a shit-show, It's now stretching into it's 7th day on 3/2/22 The convoy has bogged down, President Zelenskyy received a standing ovation at the European Union meeting while the Russian Foreign Minister watched almost the entire delegation at his U N speech walk out....Big Night at the State of the Union speech for Putin especially if he is the main focus...Of course Brain Dead Biden could F_ _ K it up & let him off the hook, Putin should be concerned about his inner circle staying loyal or defecting to another Kremlin insider in a power play to save mother Russia from him...Things not working out for Putin the way he thought....
GratefulCitizen
03-01-2022, 19:48
Don’t know if this is legit information or propaganda.
If there’s any truth to be found, it may hint at their objectives.
Just looks like the Russians are trying to consolidate the southern coast and the area east of the Dnieper river.
Kyiv obviously appears to be a major target.
The nuances of ground warfare and its relation to geography aren’t my bailiwick.
Maybe someone with some expertise could offer an interpretation.
https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PL2uwAvBFlAGcDKGkksG8nDXXbqqcmLbNK
Badger52
03-01-2022, 20:28
Just looks like the Russians are trying to consolidate the southern coast and the area east of the Dnieper river.I've seen or read several views of exactly that. There is thought that the diversified strikes are to draw resources - many of which were already facing the Donbass - because that's one area he wants to consolidate. If he has a contiguous southern coast, and land east of the Dnieper, he may have satisfied one of his goals. Leaves a buffer (western Ukraine). (If he takes it all he buts himself right up against another NATO environment.) To someone who approaches things classically, the Dnieper is not a bad thing to have as part of your (new) border.
GratefulCitizen
03-01-2022, 20:53
I've seen or read several views of exactly that. There is thought that the diversified strikes are to draw resources - many of which were already facing the Donbass - because that's one area he wants to consolidate. If he has a contiguous southern coast, and land east of the Dnieper, he may have satisfied one of his goals. Leaves a buffer (western Ukraine). (If he takes it all he buts himself right up against another NATO environment.) To someone who approaches things classically, the Dnieper is not a bad thing to have as part of your (new) border.
Current offensives, if consolidated, would give full control of the eastern and southern pipeline complexes.
There are already plans in the works to circumvent the western pipelines.
Control of southern and eastern Ukraine would also create a larger buffer around Volgograd.
The Volga river is a critical water transport route for the rest of Russia.
The lack of a natural frontier and historical invasions may contribute to paranoia at the Kremlin.
Airbornelawyer
03-01-2022, 21:52
For Putin, best-case scenario is the reintegration of Ukraine and Belarus, and possibly other territories such as Kazakhstan, Ossetia, Abkazia, Transnistria, and Russian-speaking parts of Estonia, into a new Soviet Union in all but name.
At minimum, if Ukraine remains independent, Finlandization of rump Ukraine along with annexation of Luhansk, Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk, joining Crimea. Also possibly Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, joining Crimea with those eastern oblasts. I can see Russia also wanting Odessa, Ukraine's main port, which is about 29% Russian. I wouldn't be surprised if Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts were also coveted.
And, of course, an object lesson to anyone who would consider standing up to Russia. No matter the official treaty commitment of NATO to Estonia, for example, I cannot imagine Estonians having much confidence in NATO right now.
I suppose Putin may be said to have miscalculated, expecting the same poor military response and Western political response to his previous actions in Georgia and Crimea. In population, Ukraine is 10 times larger than Georgia, and almost 1/3 the size of Russia, and has a military tested in battle with Russians and Russian-Ukrainian separatists since the Crimea annexation. By sheer numbers alone, Russia will likely prevail militarily, but the cost has been far greater then expected.
Badger52
03-02-2022, 05:42
For Putin, best-case scenario is...Thanks very much for the detail. Wonder if he's ready to interdict EU-marked (not NATO) vehicles with supplies that are marching in from Poland. Airport right there at Rzeszow that is pushing things across to Lviv.
I suppose Putin may be said to have miscalculated, expecting the same poor military response and Western political response to his previous actions in Georgia and Crimea. In population, Ukraine is 10 times larger than Georgia, and almost 1/3 the size of Russia, and has a military tested in battle with Russians and Russian-Ukrainian separatists since the Crimea annexation. By sheer numbers alone, Russia will likely prevail militarily, but the cost has been far greater then expected.
Prevail, perhaps due to lack of will.
Viewing war reports from media external to USA, for an open-source assessment of strength and capability, an image emerges of the Russian Army as a ground force that is not formidable.
Supply line problems, food shortages, with huge numbers of conscripts that are poorly trained, who are not engaging and are sabotaging equipment, leaking fuel, delaying moving to contact, and surrendering in mass, etc., etc,. Not certain how much of that is true, but considering the weapons employed thus far, one would have to conclude, that all the destruction is standoff arty and other airborne delivery methods, rather than move to contact infantry assaults.
When contact has occurred and been documented, it appears the Ukrainians are holding their own in the field.
That said, one must consider that for all the hype of Russia’s million-man army, it’s a paper tiger. Relying on standoff weapon systems, rather than boots on the ground to force its will on its adversaries.
A forty mile long convoy of 7000+ vehicles, math-ed at 176 per mile x 40, conservatively may be carrying 10+ soldiers each, is ¾ of the army, exposed. Is it any wonder the Putin placed the nuclear option on the board?
Putin understands his gamble is based on the west fear of his psychological unknowns, would he push the button? It’s his only game.
If the west were to augment the Ukrainians army with equipment and advisors right now, they could destroy the whole the Russian army in the field, with the Ukraine’s as the proxy.
I wish I could draw a reasonable conclusion from all of the experts, consultants, advisors, and elected representatives that went from being respected virologists to becoming experts on foreign policy with Russia and former Soviet states in a matter of weeks...
...but I can't.
If I had a silver dollar for every time one of these motherfucking leftists have been right about foreign policy in the last 30 years I'd have about 63 old pennies and a pull tab from a half drank can of Fresca - now all of the sudden I'm supposed to believe that anyone from the government is going to get it right?
No thanks
Viewing war reports from media external to USA, for an open-source assessment of strength and capability, an image emerges of the Russian Army as a ground force that is not formidable.
Supply line problems, food shortages, with huge numbers of conscripts that are poorly trained, who are not engaging and are sabotaging equipment, leaking fuel, delaying moving to contact, and surrendering in mass, etc., etc,. Not certain how much of that is true, but considering the weapons employed thus far, one would have to conclude, that all the destruction is standoff arty and other airborne delivery methods, rather than move to contact infantry assaults.
When contact has occurred and been documented, it appears the Ukrainians are holding their own in the field.
That said, one must consider that for all the hype of Russia’s million-man army, it’s a paper tiger. Relying on standoff weapon systems, rather than boots on the ground to force its will on its adversaries.
A forty mile long convoy of 7000+ vehicles, math-ed at 176 per mile x 40, conservatively may be carrying 10+ soldiers each, is ¾ of the army, exposed. Is it any wonder the Putin placed the nuclear option on the board?
Putin understands his gamble is based on the west fear of his psychological unknowns, would he push the button? It’s his only game.
If the west were to augment the Ukrainians army with equipment and advisors right now, they could destroy the whole the Russian army in the field, with the Ukraine’s as the proxy.
Box, or anyone, please tear this assessment/idea apart, the goal is to improve the process.
Putin cut his teeth on the "Seven Days to the River Rhine" doctrine.
By some accounts, he had a front-row seat to the fall of the USSR because he was sitting in a KGB post in East Germany when the music stopped in the soviets 70 year old game of musical hairs. I think taking the position that he is somehow afraid of public opinion might be a dangerous gambit.
Now he is being disrespected by a guy that gave a shout out to the brave Iranians fighting to keep Kyiv free, the same guy that said during the same speech that You can't build a wall high enough to keep out a vaccine
He is being globally mocked by a nation with a senate minority leader that is so accustomed to kabuki theater that he stood up to clap while people are still booing and a house speaker that stood up to do a jig when the POTUS talked about veterans getting cancer from burn pit exposure. He is being mocked by a nation that releases violent criminals from jail because the cops are racists while threatening to jail "domestic terrorists" that disagree with the administration's approved messaging as well as extremist soccer moms that are concerned about their children's ejukayshun.
Last, of all, he is being mocked by a nation that is cheering the act of handing out AK-47s to the citizenry while demanding that their own citizens register all firearms because you can't fight a military that has fighter jets and nukes.
Putin is certainly the bad guy - he always has been - always will be - but ask yourself...
...if you were Vladimir Putin, would you be willing to gamble that you could push onward against such a threat with little or no relevant threat from a nation that is screaming about sanctions while still cutting you checks for 600,000 barrels a day filled with Texas tea - bubbling crude
...(Oil that is, black gold, Texas tea)
Putin isn't done yet. Why would he be?
Airbornelawyer
03-03-2022, 04:48
One oddity to me is that Putin's rise to power was facilitated in part by Russia's poor performance in the First Chechen War. Due to poor planning, poor intelligence, poor motivation on the part of Russian soldiers, and the general decline of the former Soviet Army in the 1990s, the Russians were shocked by their armed forces' failures in what they probably expected then to be a cakewalk. Dudayev's forces were far weaker, and themselves divided among Chechen nationalist, Islamist and gangster/smuggler factions who didn't really trust each other, yet prevailed.
When Putin came to power, he engineered a series of events to allow him to re-launch that war, and Russia crushed Chechnya. Now, he seems to have decided to make many of the mistakes Yeltsin made in miscalculating the state of the enemy and his own forces.
What does Putin want?
He wants all of the old USSR restored to the 1989 pre-dissolution EMPIRE.
He's 69 and not getting any younger
He has not made his (self-perceived) mark as Mother Russia's HERO
He knows the fallacy of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, so Muslim expansion is off the table.
He started in 1999 going West when he tried to Kosovo, then Georgia (2008), Crimea(2014), and is currently trying to occupy Ukraine.
He wants it all restored as his legacy..
Putin Pledges To Protect All Ethnic Russians Anywhere. So, Where Are They?
April 10, 2014, 10:58 GMT, By Robert Coalso
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ethnic-russification-baltics-kazakhstan-soviet/25328281.html
The whimps in the EU/NATO and USA are willingly helping him. :mad:
PS: Forgot to add,,
How are the "Russian locals" percentages so high in some countries?
When FDR & Churchill GAVE Joe Stolin Eastern Europe in 45, Joe installed hundreds of thousand loyal Russian comrades to run the local governments,, and they are still there..
Interesting Video by an Iraq vet...
https://youtu.be/K5BAZ2bBUzM
GratefulCitizen
03-03-2022, 23:05
Just saw this clip from a couple days ago.
Col Macgregor presents an interesting analysis.
https://youtu.be/uRi_TCehkBY
Just my opinion, sirs. My apologies in advance to those who have greater vision, and there are many in this community.
JMHO: Putin's objective is more than to reconstitute the borders of the former USSR. His goal is to support the creation of a new communism along the model of China, that is using capitalism to support communist objectives. For quite a while now cities in China have been buying up free world companies, from food suppliers to big pharmaceuticals. Next will come buying up healthcare companies and insurance companies, and Russia has nothing to lose anymore by chiming in to the same model. It's a pretty smart way for those cities in China (and soon in Russia) who are struggling to feed their people and support their propaganda industry to keep going. Then there is skimming of Bitcoins to make new world communist oligarchs. :munchin
Here are two links;
https://www.dw.com/en/china-asked-russia-to-wait-for-olympics-to-end-before-invading-ukraine/a-60994583
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/China-and-Russia-ditch-dollar-in-move-toward-financial-alliance
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11625
Guess our Govt never reads its own publications.
This is very in depth little older but informative with the inter workings.
https://www.armyupress.army.mil/portals/7/hot%20spots/documents/russia/2017-07-the-russian-way-of-war-grau-bartles.pdf
Badger52
03-04-2022, 16:52
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11625
Guess our Govt never reads its own publications.
This is very in depth little older but informative with the inter workings.
https://www.armyupress.army.mil/portals/7/hot%20spots/documents/russia/2017-07-the-russian-way-of-war-grau-bartles.pdfHey, Dr. Grau, can I get a double facepalm?
:cool:
Jeebers. On point.
An interesting and accurate assessment of the situation and China’s bolstering Russia’s economy.
Link (https://youtu.be/Yw5lzKVn3sc)
It's easy to become desensitized to the current news cycle. More and more it seems like our government really is brought to us by Conrad Brean and Stanley Motss.
The only thing missing is a washed-up dope-smoking country singer performing a tear-jerking rendition of "Old Shoe"
...we've already got heroes like the Ghost of Kyiv and the Sunflower Seed Planting Grandma instead of poor old Sergeant William Schumann
For fuck sake - ever since the Russians bombed Pearl Harbor, they have been costing us money - Now, they just about have the Iranians encircled - the worlds Chicken Kiev supply is in danger, and there's no end in sight - we should kick the Russians out of NATO ASAP and just be done with it.
If I've got to watch one more fucking retired militician explain what we poor ignorant Americans just don't understand, I'm going to shit an 18 pack cartoon full of golden eggs. Just three weeks ago these mother fuckers all seemed to be microbiologists specializing in antiviral medicine - now all these assholes have Ph.D.'s in the study of ancientpostmodernneoliberalfacistcommunism and full spectrum strategic cossack warfare at the hyper operationalized tactical level.
Well, fuck right off. Most of these cock suckers couldn't have earned a legitimate Associates' Degree from Faber College and they just won't go away. Of course, the news channels won't tell you that almost every single talking head they parade out for comment is on the hook for a defense company that makes billions every time we do a war...
...but that's a different story.
Let's not worry about the Russians - let's build a wall that keeps the vaccine safe so we can work on unity and inclusivity and all of that jazz.
Good Bless America
Thank You
Go get him.
Roguish Lawyer
03-06-2022, 13:12
Faber College, LMAO
Badger52
03-06-2022, 16:39
Faber College, LMAO"He's on a roll..."
So the next escalation step is…..Double Secret Probation? :)
So the next escalation step is…..Double Secret Probation? :)
Seriously?
Dude - we've been on double secret probation since the day a seated president sodomized a government clerk with a cigar and then asked the judge to define the word "IS"
If I had paid for movie tickets to to sit down and watch the epic flick, "America: The Roaring 2020's" not only would I be demanding my money back, I'd be setting fire to the popcorn machine, pissing in the ice chest, stuffing the commodes full of toilet paper, and unplugging all of the video games - and on my way out of the theater, I would be drawing mustaches and black eyes on all of the movie posters.
What's the next step?
What difference at this point does it make?
A one legged hermaphrodite in a butt fucking contest could produce a better reality show than the one we have been forced into.
...and to think there was a point in time that I allowed myself to 'judge' the lifestyles of people like 'Snookie' and 'The Situation'.
Airbornelawyer
03-08-2022, 08:03
A one legged hermaphrodite in a butt fucking contest could produce a better reality show than the one we have been forced into.
I'm pretty sure they're all currently undergoing confirmation hearings for Biden Administration posts.
Old Dog New Trick
03-08-2022, 08:18
Seriously?
A one legged hermaphrodite in a butt fucking contest could produce a better reality show than the one we have been forced into.
Seriously…
That’s an advantage… the points of contact; at least!
Seriously…
That’s an advantage… the points of contact; at least!
Pete Buttigieg approves of this message.
Now buy a electric car !
Its all about liquid gas and who has it last wins. Putin is in this for the long haul and he is laughing at the idea that we can keep our liquid gas industry alive. I live in the center of the liquid gas refining world. Its the center of the universe for us down here and is likely who provides liquid fuel to most all posts, air ports and homes east of the rockies. I bet each one of you can trace the liquid back to somewhere near me. We live in a glass castle with the lives of our American children and grand children dependent on it, especially in refining, down here. Hell, every once in a while these sumbitches explode and kill kinfolk. We live in the middle of it and hope it don't pop. I've been told that cyber is what will make it pop, no matter how much $$ the big companies spend to prevent it. God help us if it goes.
Its gonna suck. Hopefully not today cause we are blessed with peace and calm. We save our anxiety each year for hurricane season, but this whole WWIII thing is not long in arriving to our community. Kinda wish it was just another hurricane, but this will cripple us all. 80% of us won't survive the first 6 years. Sorry to think it and more sorry to write it down, but im old and worry for my kids. Gonna grow a good garden this year and feed four great grandboys and a hungry customer or two in the restaurant a little longer.
Love you men! Thank you for your service to us and hope ya'll have a wonderful day. Its wet and cold today but spring is near.
Old Dog New Trick
03-08-2022, 14:28
People gunna wish that Keystone pipeline was nearing completion instead of dead in the middle of bumfuck Nebraska! (No offense to Nebraska. :D )
I’m thinking Brandon flew to Texas today to cut a secret deal with the oil industry to drill baby drill! Then again, I think his people want it all to burn down and “We The Peace” will find hard time’s ahead.
I hope I’m wrong!
Just paid $4.39 for Super and Diesel in Southern Texas. :mad:
(A year and half ago it was under $2.00.)
Old Dog New Trick
03-08-2022, 14:33
Pete Buttigieg approves of this message.
Now buy a electric car !
I hope those people realize electricity comes from burning fossil fuels!
(At least until we pull our heads out of the sand and start building nuclear power plants again, but that would be 10 to 15 years before the first kilowatt of electricity is produced.)
I think we should cut down a fuck ton more trees to clear the way for some more solar panel farms and some windmills - we need some windmills
Otherwise, back up, put the gas pump down, and get me a pack of Tropical Fruit Bubblicious.
...and some Skittles
WarriorDiplomat
03-08-2022, 23:56
I dont know jeeez
Since NATO was the cold war coalition against the Warsaw Pact and were both supposed to dissolve at the same time perhaps Russia wants a buffer between them and NATO...it seems that NATO IS the new world order
Perhaps the wolf smelled the weakness of the worst POTUS in history and decided it was time to move...China is doing the same thing so the question is, is Iran going to move on Israel or is N Korea going to move in S Korea??
The Obama agenda of LGBTQ etc....is the ruse for Green Energy seems to be yet another transfer of wealth to further enrich the Oligrachs and put us ever so much closer to state dependence just like the magical Covid jabs did....is this the greatest transfer of wealth from the people to the Global Oligarchs? Well lets see how much more damage can be done when everyone is trying to finance EMV's and then we can switch our energy dealings from Russia to China
BTW what has happened to Fauci? it seems the eternal memo that discussed how the polls reflected that America was sick and tired of the fear porn and just like that Covid was cured and all mandates are being lifted JUST IN TIME for the midterms. Somehow it seems to me that Faucis body may show up around the time Russia exposes the possible labs in Ukraine? China is happy to buy into that narrative and Fauci will be the enemy of the people who duped everyone.
Why isnt NATO doing much for Ukraine if it is such a tragedy? Poland showed up in Ramstein airbase with 28 MiG 29s for Ukraine and apparently the bureaucracy is playing stupid and of course NATO does not want to be construed as being part of the fight....and yet the media is calling the Russian Army and an embarrassment and yet no one wants to draw their ire?
The Obama, Clinton and Biden crime family corruption and crimes roads all seem to lead to Ukraine and to make it worse Zelensky did support Trumps assertion that it was lies that he was withholding money to get them to expose the previous Democrats. It appears that the west is OK with standing by and watching Russia continue to up the intensity until the wipe out all connections to corruption
So much idiocracy
I know they're a toothless tiger but shouldn't the UN be the peacekeepers of the evacuation routes? Then if Putin dared to mine the roads or shell the children in Red Cross buses on them the UN in all it's righteous indignation could march right up to Putin and ask for permission to gum him to death. That would show him who's boss.
BTW what has happened to Fauci?
It appears Fauci is now using his COVID shtick for Tuberculosis.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine could be “devastating” for tuberculosis control in eastern Europe, and will cause a “terrible public health tragedy”, Dr Anthony Fauci has warned.
“As a public health official, as a scientist, and as an infectious disease expert, I’m very worried about the disruption that has already happened and that will continue.”
We still do not know as much as we need to [about TB]. We need to revitalise what has been a somewhat neglected approach to an ancient disease,
We have not used cutting edge technology [on it]. And we have a lot of people who are not interested in the field of TB because there’s been this somewhat inappropriate mindset: ‘It’s been around for a long time and we do have the BCG vaccine
Anytime you disrupt society like this and put literally millions of people on the move, infectious disease will exploit that,” he said. “People are packed together, they’re stressed, they’re not eating, not sleeping properly. They’re highly susceptible [to disease].
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/war-ukraine-could-lead-devastating-tuberculosis-problem-warns/
Is this the greatest transfer of wealth from the people to the Global Oligarchs? Well lets see how much more damage can be done when everyone is trying to finance EMV's and then we can switch our energy dealings from Russia to China
So much idiocracy
All your world crypto currency will soon be regulated by the Banksters.
Petro Dollars are finished and will go into oblivion once the price is so high no one can afford it. Everyone will be forced to exchange to the new Crypto at a loss of value just like in the 1930's with the fixed gold price buy back rip off.
https://www.axios.com/white-house-crypto-executive-order-76b79e6d-47fa-49e8-8bda-8977e7a5ebb2.html
And no don't buy gold or silver that is artificially priced also.
Have food and read be prepared thread .
https://www.professionalsoldiers.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10819
This is all my opinion from what I am seeing our leaders doing.
Old Dog New Trick
03-09-2022, 08:28
Paslode:
Anytime you disrupt society like this and put literally millions of people on the move, infectious disease will exploit that,” he said. “People are packed together, they’re stressed, they’re not eating, not sleeping properly. They’re highly susceptible [to disease].
If you are coming from or through Mexico, it’s all okay!
Paslode:
Anytime you disrupt society like this and put literally millions of people on the move, infectious disease will exploit that,” he said. “People are packed together, they’re stressed, they’re not eating, not sleeping properly. They’re highly susceptible [to disease].
If you are coming from or through Mexico, it’s all okay!
You read my mind 😉
Javadrinker
03-09-2022, 09:49
Paslode:
Anytime you disrupt society like this and put literally millions of people on the move, infectious disease will exploit that,” he said. “People are packed together, they’re stressed, they’re not eating, not sleeping properly. They’re highly susceptible [to disease].
If you are coming from or through Mexico, it’s all okay!
Isn't that the truth. Past time that our southern border was secured.
WD
It appears that the west is OK with standing by and watching Russia continue to up the intensity until the wipe out all connections to corruption
The truth is always simple.
Surf n Turf
03-09-2022, 22:39
I am still confused as to what Putin is up to. I suspect that if he wanted the Ukraine gone…it would be gone. His troops taking a “winter break” is not Russian / Soviet planning. There has to be something in background…….
Could this be one of the reasons Vlad is a “little pissed off” at Obama / Biden / Zelensky ? I suspect that we might get a little worried if Russia developed such a site in Cuba
SnT
Deleted Web Pages Show Obama Led an Effort To Build a Ukraine-Based BioLab Handling ‘Especially Dangerous Pathogens’
deleted web article recovered by The National Pulse reveals that former President Barack Obama spearheaded an agreement leading to the construction of biolabs handling “especially dangerous pathogens” in Ukraine.
The news comes on the same day that Biden regime apparatchik Victoria Nuland told the U.S. Senate that the American government is concerned about biological research facilities falling into Russian hands as a result of the ongoing conflict in Eastern Europe.
The article, which also highlighted the work of former Senator Dick Lugar, was additionally included in Issue No. 818 of the United States Air Force (USAF) Counterproliferation Center’s Outreach Journal.
A 2011 report from the U.S. National Academy of Sciences’ Committee on Anticipating Biosecurity Challenges of the Global Expansion of High-Containment Biological Laboratories explained how the Odessa-based laboratory “is responsible for the identification of especially dangerous biological pathogens.”
This laboratory was reconstructed and technically updated up to the BSL-3 level through a cooperative agreement between the United States Department of Defense and the Ministry of Health of Ukraine that started in 2005. The collaboration focuses on preventing the spread of technologies, pathogens, and knowledge that can be used in the development of biological weapons,” the report continues.
https://thenationalpulse.com/2022/03/08/obama-led-ukraine-biolab-efforts/
WarriorDiplomat
03-09-2022, 22:56
WD
The truth is always simple.
Democrats are evil and it is easy to boil down the why to something as simple as destroying the evidence
Badger52
03-10-2022, 04:13
The news comes on the same day that Biden regime apparatchik Victoria Nuland told the U.S. Senate that the American government is concerned about biological research facilities falling into Russian hands as a result of the ongoing conflict in Eastern Europe.
Saw some of that testimony. Nuland is experienced in the dance, having been instrumental in setting up the 2014 operation in UKR. She was setup perfectly by Rubio's questions and leading conclusions, which he saved till his time was about to expire. He is the Vice-Chair of the Select Committee on Intelligence. "Let's make sure that ANYthing that happens is attributed to the Russians, and we'll call it their standard disinformation technique." When it comes to such "circle the wagons" operations they're all of the same party.
John Kirby at DoD was a bit irritated & uncharacteristically adamant over repeated questions on these labs that the Russians found. He had his "I did NOT have sex with that woman" moment. It's a tell. But not a "weapons" lab. Like Wuhan isn't a weapons lab maybe...
The news cycle is all about a melt down at the reactor in Chernobyl because of power being cut off wouldn't that be convenient how close are the labs.
Badger52
03-11-2022, 05:12
The news cycle is all about a melt down at the reactor in Chernobyl because of power being cut off wouldn't that be convenient how close are the labs.There are apparently a number of them scattered about the country, a story which DoD calls "malarkey" - or a few doing really nefarious work.
Russia has requested a UN Security Council (https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/council-meet-russian-claim-us-labs-ukraine-83376730) meeting to present their evidence today (11 Mar) at 1100 EST.
Here is an additional Fox story (https://www.foxnews.com/world/ukraine-russia-un-security-council-biolabs), slightly different take.
The last few days has seen vigorous adherence by USG to the term "weapons" lab, to distinguish it from a "research" lab. There are going to be some "side games" played using that forum, China having already waved their arms & flapped their gums on Thursday about what goes on at Ft Detrick.
GratefulCitizen
03-12-2022, 10:11
Digging around the rumor mill on the internet:
Supposedly the bulk of the Ukrainian military was massed near the border of the Donbas region prior to the start of the conflict.
Rumors of a February war in Ukraine have been circulating since October.
Russian forces are supposedly about to complete encirclement of the bulk of the Ukrainian military near the Donbas region.
Is this a case of Russia stealing a march?
Maybe the Ukrainian military was there to counter an expected Russian invasion.
But why the Donbas region when there is so much more of the country to defend?
Don’t know if there’s any truth to any of this.
Time will tell.
While talking to a friend in Scotland, she ask me if I thought Putin had cancer and was dying.
It seems to be a circling theme in the UK.
If you wanted to go out with a bang?? :munchin
Is Putin sick? Does Vladimir Putin have terminal cancer, and why is Russian President's health in question?
The health of Russian President Vladimir Putin, the man behind the invasion of Ukraine, has been called into question – but why are some people claiming Putin has cancer, and what have news outlets reported about his health?
By Joshua King
Sunday, 6th March 2022, 4:46 pm
https://www.scotsman.com/news/world/is-putin-sick-and-why-is-russian-presidents-health-in-question-3598823
GratefulCitizen
03-12-2022, 15:30
So far, we’re still getting Instagram videos and other media from inside Ukraine.
The power, water, internet, and phone services are functioning.
Gas is still flowing to western Europe.
As of yet, there doesn’t appear to be razing of the cities.
One has to wonder how much of the Ukrainian military leadership was bought off in advance of the invasion.
Who do the Russians really want gone?
When Zelensky says he’s the number one target, he’s probably correct.
Russia definitely wants a puppet regime like in Belarus, and can’t have a leader in exile.
Igor Kolomoisky may remain a target of Russia for some time.
He fled to Switzerland some time ago and likely won’t return.
If there are any grains of truth to Russia’s claims, they will probably also wipe out the Asov battalion.
These appear to be the targets of the “de-nazification”.
After consolidating their gains, there may be a slow push in the direction of Poland, dumping refugees into the rest of Europe.
Poof. Now they have a more friendly “electorate” and more compliant population remaining.
Then they could carve off the majority ethnically Russian areas in the south and east into a new puppet state.
Finally, set up another one or two majority Ukrainian puppet states as a buffer.
Listened to an analysis proposing that if Russia conquers Ukraine, they’ll offer Lviv to Poland in exchange for a buffer zone.
This would undermine Poland’s solidarity with the rest of NATO.
Regardless of the morality, it’s difficult to see why Russia would act against their own perceived self-interest.
While talking to a friend in Scotland, she ask me if I thought Putin had cancer and was dying.
It seems to be a circling theme in the UK.
If you wanted to go out with a bang?? :munchin
Maybe, the Daily Mail is claiming possible Roid Rage.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10606487/Is-Putin-suffering-roid-rage-Spies-suggest-bloated-appearance-drugs-effect.html
GratefulCitizen
04-19-2022, 00:39
Watching the news, and knowing there’s an agenda, I have no reason to believe the prevailing narrative.
Conversely, I also have no reason to disbelieve the prevailing narrative.
Given the limitations of information, there’s just no way to know the truth.
So, I dig for alternatives to the prevailing narrative and test for plausibility.
To be clear, I’m not rooting for the alternative narrative.
I’m just testing it for plausibility.
The alternative narrative I’ve heard:
Russia’s first phase involved engaging Ukrainian forces on many fronts to deny them the ability to maneuver.
During that time, fuel depots were targeted and a war of attrition was started to weaken Ukrainian forces and “prepare” the battlefield.
The second phase is currently being started to deal with the bulk of Ukrainian forces near the Donbas.
It’s starting with reconnaissance in force to find a path to encircle the bulk of Ukrainian forces near the Donbas.
It will conclude with a massive force moving through the areas east of the Dnieper, isolating and subsequently destroying the Ukrainian forces near the Donbas.
It may later move north towards Kyiv.
For all I know, this is complete propaganda.
Are the any members with some subject matter expertise who can say if this sounds plausible?
Badger52
04-21-2022, 05:58
There seem to be differing views of what is transpiring at the Azovstal steel works in Mariupol. Both accounts give some weight to the notion that consolidation in the Donbas is a main goal. One account (RT's) (https://www.rt.com/russia/554252-mariupol-azovstal-ukraine-plant/) seems to be more timely than the morning Fox-feed (https://www.foxnews.com/world/putin-orders-troops-not-to-storm-final-mariupol-holdout) (expected). Either way, Putin probably doesn't want to decimate a major piece of industry more than it already is. From his view, simply isolating that area in Mariupol will accomplish what he needs; time does the rest of the work.
Emphasis hasn't been seen on Odessa recently but their daily is still up & running (https://odessa-journal.com/sbu-uncovers-a-secret-warehouse-with-ammunition-and-components-for-military-equipment-for-200-million/). If Putin wants to land-lock Ukraine he's going to get back around to them eventually.
Airbornelawyer
04-21-2022, 12:31
The alternative narrative I’ve heard:
Russia’s first phase involved engaging Ukrainian forces on many fronts to deny them the ability to maneuver.
During that time, fuel depots were targeted and a war of attrition was started to weaken Ukrainian forces and “prepare” the battlefield.
The second phase is currently being started to deal with the bulk of Ukrainian forces near the Donbas.
It’s starting with reconnaissance in force to find a path to encircle the bulk of Ukrainian forces near the Donbas.
It will conclude with a massive force moving through the areas east of the Dnieper, isolating and subsequently destroying the Ukrainian forces near the Donbas.
It may later move north towards Kyiv.
The alternative narrative is premised on the notion, which Russian propaganda outfits have run with, that the withdrawal from the Kyiv area was all part of the plan, and not a defeat.
The main objective is, as it was from the beginning, twofold: (1) securing control of the eastern and southern provinces to guarantee land access to Crimea (and secure its fresh-water supply), control the economic resources of the Donbas, and unite the Russian-speaking regions of Ukraine with Mother Russia, and (2) dominating Ukraine with a friendly proxy government, if possible, or at least Finlandizing it, removing the threat of NATO membership.
The Russians miscalculated on how easy it would be to achieve those objectives. They thought the Ukrainian military would collapse easily and they underestimated popular resistance. They thought a lightning fast airborne and combined arms assault on the capital would lead to a quick military and political collapse, allowing them to consolidate gains and achieve their other objectives at their leisure.
With that failure, they are now going to plan B, which is securing control of the eastern and southern regions by grinding down the Ukrainians in a war of attrition, which they believe they can win since no matter how scrappily the Ukrainians have fought, they still outnumber the Ukrainians by a significant degree and can afford to take losses, in men and material, that the Ukrainians cannot afford to take and cannot replace, even with a steady pipeline of Western arms.
If they do prevail, it will be because they successfully adapted to conditions on the ground. It will be in spite of, not because of, their original plan.
GratefulCitizen
04-21-2022, 22:38
The alternative narrative is premised on the notion, which Russian propaganda outfits have run with, that the withdrawal from the Kyiv area was all part of the plan, and not a defeat.
The main objective is, as it was from the beginning, twofold: (1) securing control of the eastern and southern provinces to guarantee land access to Crimea (and secure its fresh-water supply), control the economic resources of the Donbas, and unite the Russian-speaking regions of Ukraine with Mother Russia, and (2) dominating Ukraine with a friendly proxy government, if possible, or at least Finlandizing it, removing the threat of NATO membership.
The Russians miscalculated on how easy it would be to achieve those objectives. They thought the Ukrainian military would collapse easily and they underestimated popular resistance. They thought a lightning fast airborne and combined arms assault on the capital would lead to a quick military and political collapse, allowing them to consolidate gains and achieve their other objectives at their leisure.
With that failure, they are now going to plan B, which is securing control of the eastern and southern regions by grinding down the Ukrainians in a war of attrition, which they believe they can win since no matter how scrappily the Ukrainians have fought, they still outnumber the Ukrainians by a significant degree and can afford to take losses, in men and material, that the Ukrainians cannot afford to take and cannot replace, even with a steady pipeline of Western arms.
If they do prevail, it will be because they successfully adapted to conditions on the ground. It will be in spite of, not because of, their original plan.
Thank you for the nuanced answer.
Sound bites from the news tend to be low on direct information.
It maybe over. Russia can not afford a defeat, the out:
Chinese drone giant pulls out of Russia, Ukraine to prevent use of products in combat.
DJI Technology Co is the first Chinese firm to cite the war in ceasing operations in Russia.
The whole world is responding that this future in not possible, no longer will a nation state have the inherent right to invade, for whatever reason/cause, against another state.
Russia becomes the villain in real time, war crimes. The autocratic state is a suppressor of individual freedom - in the extreme; this is not something China wants to be aligned with.
Badger52
04-27-2022, 18:54
The autocratic state is a suppressor of individual freedom - in the extreme; this is not something China wants to be aligned with.Sir, I'm probably jaded or it's the continued looping of footage from Shanghai of people being locked up like mice to see who dies. I can't seem to grok such an attitude from China, unless you mean that China doesn't want to be associated with additional crimes against a populace. That is, they forgive (or deny) their own but being held up in the light as supporting others' crimes is intolerable. Am I close?
Airbornelawyer
04-27-2022, 23:40
Food for thought:
The Russian army has been mauled, so far. The most precise damage assessment I’ve seen comes from Ben Wallace, Britain’s defense secretary. He said in a speech Monday that 15,000 Russians have been killed, 2,000 armored vehicles destroyed, and 60 helicopters and jet fighters downed. Russia’s massive invasion army of 120 battalions has suffered a 25 percent loss in combat strength, Wallace said. That’s a body blow.
A rough composite portrait of the human beings represented by these numbers comes from Mediazone, a Russian independent media group. Researchers analyzed 1,744 specific Russian death reports. They found heavy losses among elite paratroopers, marines and special forces. At least 317 of the reported dead were officers; 44 had the rank of lieutenant colonel or above. The fallen soldiers were disproportionately from the poor regions of Dagestan in the Caucasus Mountains and Buryatia in eastern Siberia.
https://daily.energybulletin.org/2022/04/opinion-does-the-exit-ramp-look-more-attractive-to-putin-now-the-washington-post/
Author is a former CIA analyst, not that that tells us anything given how widely the quality of such analysts and analysis varies. https://www.postcarbon.org/our-people/tom-whipple/
Chinese drone giant pulls out of Russia, Ukraine to prevent use of products in combat.
DJI Technology Co is the first Chinese firm to cite the war in ceasing operations in Russia.
Found a couple of sources for this quote..
https://kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/chinese-drone-giant-pulls-out-of-russia-ukraine-to-prevent-use-of-products-in-combat/
https://www.latestly.com/socially/world/chinese-drone-giant-pulls-out-of-russia-ukraine-to-prevent-use-of-products-in-latest-tweet-by-the-kyiv-independent-3639715.html
https://www.reuters.com/technology/chinese-drone-maker-dji-suspends-business-activities-russia-ukraine-2022-04-26/
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/4/27/chinese-drone-giant-dji-suspends-business-in-russia-ukraine
Badger52
04-28-2022, 09:28
Found a couple of sources for this quote..
Thanks. Seems the company itself has decided that they can be minus 2 markets and keep the other bazillion.
I did not serve in Europe in the 70's I did my time in Korea but I recall always hearing how if the Russians ever made the big push into Germany one would have a life expectancy of minutes. Anyone else recall hearing the same? The Ukrainian military is more than holding their own against the vaunted red army. The reds have obviously been given a lot more credit than they ever deserved.
I did not serve in Europe in the 70's I did my time in Korea but I recall always hearing how if the Russians ever made the big push into Germany one would have a life expectancy of minutes. Anyone else recall hearing the same? The Ukrainian military is more than holding their own against the vaunted red army. The reds have obviously been given a lot more credit than they ever deserved.
I think comments like this are based on WWII and how ruthless Stolin was in his use of troops. Much like Hitler, the cost of the war was incidental to his need to win.
The allies did not have the depth and volume of conscripts after the war to think they could go toe-2-toe with Joe..
Russia lost 27 million but still had millions more than the allies after the conclusion.
Vlad is continuing Joe's 18th-century tactics of mass troops with little technology, but I think he has seen the LIGHT.
one would have a life expectancy of minutes. Anyone else recall hearing the same? .
Yep. Spent two years in Germany in the mid 80's. The joke was always that we would never receive an alert notification. We would awaken to dropping bombs. :D
GratefulCitizen
05-12-2022, 15:02
There’s a YouTube channel run by a guy in Singapore who has been following the Ukraine war obsessively and mapping it.
His information sources are widely varied and he appears to attempt a degree of verification.
https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLRy97taVZlIbHuZYGw1g31tVMNxPGu0yk
Badger52
05-12-2022, 19:02
I did not serve in Europe in the 70's I did my time in Korea but I recall always hearing how if the Russians ever made the big push into Germany one would have a life expectancy of minutes. Anyone else recall hearing the same? Several people mentioned to me when I first got to West Berlin that "we're just a speed bump." Now it's true that Berlin was surrounded but as time went on it became apparent that the numbers were serious but not as bad as some thought. For one thing, Ivan named their units differently at the time (maybe now?) and what they called a Division ("holy shit, 10,000 dudes?") was more like a couple of heavy battalions.
Here's a fairly comprehensive Order of Battle of the time (https://nebula.wsimg.com/f71ab9644b4da1bed6078b206cbb5179?AccessKeyId=876FD A555694A1EBEE5C&disposition=0&alloworigin=1) for the Warsaw Pact, fortunately the Group of Soviet Forces Germany (GSFG) comes first. Still, whether via air or electronic intel gathering, or motorized recon by USMLM tour personnel, or just some Special people that may have been snooping around, it was a helluva lot of people. QUALITY, however, was regarded as another matter. It would've been a fight, particularly with some pretty competent US troops I served with much later during a 2nd tour.
Airbornelawyer
05-13-2022, 14:43
Ironically, we generally thought of 8USA and US Army Korea as basically a speed bump. They were primarily a deterrent - a warning to the Chinese and North Koreans that a new Korean War would be a world war - and ff the balloon did go up, basically a delaying action. The fact that both the US and the ROKs had to be so forward-deployed because much of the South's population and economic might was too close to the DMZ didn't help.
Badger52
05-13-2022, 17:49
The fact that both the US and the ROKs had to be so forward-deployed because much of the South's population and economic might was too close to the DMZ didn't help.That's a neat observation and, to this day, that "geography" is pretty much the first thing I notice when glancing at a map of that peninsula.
Airbornelawyer
05-26-2022, 17:13
One of the bigger factors in the Russian Army's poor performance in Ukraine was that the invasion coincided with late winter and the spring thaws. Thus, the Russians ran afoul of the rasputitsa, the muddy season, and offensive operations were confined to roads where Russian columns became easy targets.
Has anyone seen any recent analysis as to whether with the improving weather conditions, the Russians will now be able to better maneuver and regain or pick up the momentum?
As I recall, Operation Barbarossa was originally supposed to commence in mid-May, but was delayed to June 22 because of the need to divert resources to deal with Yugoslavia and Greece. So May/June was originally seen as the best time to conduct offensive operations in this theater.
Another factor is Russian conscription, and how that affects morale and combat readiness. Conscription is generally for one year, and intakes are in the fall and spring, over the course of about two months. The bulk of non-specialized troops undergo 3-4 months of basic and advanced individual training, and Russian law supposedly forbids sending them into combat without at least four months' service time. The fall intake begins on October 1. The spring intake usually begins in April, by it was reported that this year's was actually started early, on February 18.
So, this means that a large percentage of Russian soldiers were conscripted between April and July 2021, and most were expecting to be done with their service by this point. I have not heard anything about a stop-loss or the like; have any of you? The next largest group would be the October-December 2021 intake - many of these were still undeployable when Russia first invaded, but would have been coming in as reinforcements over the course of the operation.
Even with the early start to the 2022 spring intake, even the most basic grunts ought not to be deployable for at least a month, but this is Russia. The Russians infamously sent conscripts into battle in the First Chechen War in many cases without even basic training.
So, will weather and manpower changes allow for an increased tempo in operations over the next weeks, or will other factors, including the scale of losses already taken, depletion of munitions reserves, and increased Western weapons shipments to the Ukrainians, counter this?
Badger52
05-26-2022, 18:33
Another factor is Russian conscription, and how that affects morale and combat readiness.Ya know, I'd known many of those things over the years but hadn't rolled it up until you laid it out like that. If they are running a "just in time inventory" of bodies, with hardly any experience, they are in deep borscht.
Don't know how it is now, but when I was paying attention to this stuff they had trouble retaining a professional NCO class and one of the considerations was that Americans would excel in the areas of adapting and executing a plan in the absence of their officers. "Continue the mission" wasn't viewed as being as driving their behavior on the battlefield like it does with us.
Badger52
06-18-2022, 17:52
Linky thing here. (https://sonar21.com/lithuania-may-have-lit-the-fuze-on-world-war-iii/)
Lithuania May Have Lit the Fuse on World War III
18 June 2022 by Larry Johnson
In a move of staggering stupidity and hubris, Lithuania banned the transit of Russian goods to Kaliningrad effective today, June 18, 2022. Kaliningrad, which is wedged between Poland on the west and Lithuania on the east, is home to almost a half-million Russians and the headquarters for the Russian Navy’s Baltic Sea force [less the Red October]
Lithuania claims it is simply abiding by the sanctions imposed by the European Union. After all, Lithuania is a member of the European Union and NATO. But that is the point. This is a deliberate provocation. It is laying economic siege to a vital interest of Russia. While there is no immediate danger to the Russian population of Kaliningrad, this is a flash point that could lead to an actual war as opposed to a special military operation.
What is the difference between a special military operation and war? In the SMO you leave communications, electrical infrastructure, transportation infrastructure and fuel depots largely intact. In the SMO you try to minimized civilian and military casualties.
War on the other hand is terrifying. If Russia opts for a war footing, the restraint that characterized its activities in Ukraine will be replaced by a full on attack on key military installations and assets in the region as well as the destruction of the communications, electrical, transportation and fuel resources of the adversary. This probably includes taking out critical satellite communications and intelligence collection systems of the United States and Europe.
Kaliningrad, formerly known as Königsberg, was put under Soviet control in 1945 according to the terms of the Potsdam Agreement, which was backed by the United States and Great Britain. The Russian people paid blood for this land in 1945 and are not going to relinquish it in the face of bullying or threats from the west. If you are going to poke a angry bear with a stick, you better be damn sure that bear is locked up and can’t get you. Russia sure as hell is not secure in a cage.
----
This is like where Charlie Sheen's character beans the next batter after giving up a grand slam, and his manager mutters, "Interesting..."
:munchin
Lithuania claims it is simply abiding by the sanctions imposed by the European Union. After all, Lithuania is a member of the European Union and NATO.
:munchin
Unless Lithuania is going rogue can we assume that both Nato and the EU concur? Without backing Lithuania is a squished bug.
Ruskies have long wanted those three mini-states on the Baltic as their deep open water access(as opposed to their mostly ice-bound ports)
Most Americans have no idea of the special status of Kaliningrad.
Like Alaska, it is a part of the home country, but not physically connected with the home country via adjacent land borders.
The only way in or out is by air or sea with a long detour route,
or to have permission to travel/fly over another countries land/airspace.
Well, for Kaliningrad, that permission just ended.
Example: If Canada closed its airspace and overland routes to Alaska,
Alaska would be no less a State of the United States,
but road and rail commerce would come to a halt.
That would leave a roundabout sea route out into the north Pacific and back in again, same roundabout flight paths for air travel and air commerce.
Add hundreds of miles, and double the expenses.
There are only three countries adjacent to Kaliningrad: Poland lies to the west, Lithuania and Latvia (seriatim) to
the east, and all three are NATO members. Estonia, to the north of Latvia,
is also a member of NATO.
What used to be a simple day road trip or rail trip of 300 miles or so to
travel from mother Russia to Kaliningrad
has now become a 600 mile sea trip around the Baltic Sea from
St. Petersburg to (the city of) Kaliningrad.
The flight path from Moscow to Kaliningrad doubles, becoming an "around the infield from first base to
home plate" route of over 1,000 miles.
Putin's fellow dictator from Belarus can't be any help, due to a 41 mile gap from the northwest
border of Belarus to the southeast border of Kaliningrad.
Lithuania just made a major international move ... "CHECK."
Badger52
06-19-2022, 05:16
Unless Lithuania is going rogue can we assume that both Nato and the EU concur? Without backing Lithuania is a squished bug.
Ruskies have long wanted those three mini-states on the Baltic as their deep open water access(as opposed to their mostly ice-bound ports)Since the recent NATO meet in Vilnius, the rhetoric seems to be solidifying on that end. An example from the West Germans (https://www.baltictimes.com/russia_will_have_to_withdraw_its_army_from_ukraine ___scholz_in_vilnius/):
VILNIUS - The West will not accept peace terms dictated by Russia and it will have to withdraw its army from Ukraine, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said in Vilnius on Tuesday.
"We will definitely not accept a peace dictated by Russia, we will not accept such a peace. It is, therefore, very important and clear to us that the result of this military situation will be that Russia will have to withdraw its troops and that Ukraine will defend its independence," he told a press conference in Vilnius.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's military aggression has only achieved the goal of further uniting Western allies, the German chancellor pointed out.
"What Putin has achieved is that NATO has become even more united, that NATO is further strengthening its capabilities, and we are strengthening NATO's eastern flank near the Baltic Sea, and that Sweden and Finland have decided to become NATO members. So this is what Putin's military aggression has achieved: we are becoming even stronger", the German chancellor said.
Old Dog New Trick
06-19-2022, 17:37
If NATO has become “more” united after recent developments then NATO should be afraid…. very very afraid.
The US will not commit military forces not already in country to defend any NATO country.
Badger52
07-03-2022, 03:46
Maybe someone played the hypothetical tape all the way through.
01.07.2022
EU Sanctions Commission to Allow Russia to Resume Transports to Kaliningrad
The European Commission plans to issue a clarification that will allow Russia to resume sending supplies to the exclave of Kaliningrad via Lithuania. Berlin supports the idea, but some in Vilnius are not pleased.
It is a dispute that goes beyond a mere confrontation between the European Union and Russia. Should Moscow be allowed to transport goods like steel and aluminum through EU member state Lithuania to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad – even though those goods are on the sanctions list?
DER SPIEGEL has learned that the European Commission intends to publish a clarification on the issue in the coming days. Its key message will be that Moscow will be allowed to use the transit route for all goods, but only limited amounts.
Full article at Link here. (https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/eu-sanctions-commission-to-allow-russia-to-resume-transports-to-kaliningrad-a-8c779e97-56cb-4dd4-84bd-e3f70de541b2)
:munchin
Remington Raidr
07-03-2022, 12:33
If NATO has become “more” united after recent developments then NATO should be afraid…. very very afraid.
The US will not commit military forces not already in country to defend any NATO country.
with the latest democrat azzhole's war, I think he will order troops east eventually.
Roosevelt played the same with Imperial Japan invading Manchuria. How did that work out. Let's ask those sailors entombed in the USS Arizona. To sum up:
WW 1 Wilson - democrat
WW 2 Roosevelt - democrat
Korea Truman - democrat
Vietnam Kenedy - democrat
Gulf War Bush - republican (we kinda won that one)
Iraq Bush - republican, because Bush 1 didn't get it done
Afghanistan Bush - republican, a direct attach on America
We are due. Xiden wants to support Ukraine so that all the bullshit that he and his fellow pols were pulling in Ukraine, not just financial but hey Fauci was giving cash to Red China, who knows what they were fvcking around with in Ukraine. Slave Ukrani!
Biden's war is next up. Place your bets.
Happy fourth to all that have served, and prayers to those that will be sent for Biden's War.
Old Dog New Trick
07-03-2022, 13:25
Oh, I hear you, Democrats love war. Just look at how many Obama/Clinton started or (withdrew from in failure).
On the heels of Bythen approving a permanent rotation of troops to Poland he’s creating a speed bump for the start of WW3 and with the new addition of Sweden and Finland to NATO, I’m afraid pushing Putin into a corner is only going to embolden him to move large amounts of military equipment and troops to his western front. Get ready for “Cold War 2” (unless it goes “hot”)
Guess it’s time again to move the “doomsday clock” closer to “Midnight” another Democrat is in office! Like the pseudo “RINOs” G.H.W.B. and son G.W.B., I’m sure J.R.B. would be especially happy to become a “Wartime President” even if they have to start the war in the first place.
Badger52
07-03-2022, 19:44
I’m sure J.R.B. would be especially happy to become a “Wartime President” even if they have to start the war in the first place.Oh indeed, you bet. Somewhere in Foggy Bottom there's probably a TS SPECAT cable that says, "Oh, yes, we concur that if you leak (through the CCP) that you're all ready to accept UKR into NATO - Putin will go absolutely batshit crazy, even when he knows that Turkey would never agree. He would make a move on UKR."
Badger52
07-23-2022, 04:58
It would appear (if AP is to be trusted) that grain will be able to be moved through the Black Sea.
Ukraine, Russia sign U.N. deal to export grain on Black Sea
By AYSE WIETING and SUZAN FRASER, Associated Press
Posted: July 22, 2022 9:31 AM
Updated: July 23, 2022 5:36 AM
ISTANBUL (AP) — Russia and Ukraine signed separate agreements Friday with Turkey and the United Nations clearing the way for exporting millions of tons of desperately needed Ukrainian grain — as well as Russian grain and fertilizer — ending a wartime standoff that had threatened food security around the globe.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov signed separate deals with U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres and Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar. The ceremony in Istanbul was witnessed by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
“Today, there is a beacon on the Black Sea,” Guterres said. “A beacon of hope, a beacon of possibility, a beacon of relief in a world that needs it more than ever.”
“You have overcome obstacles and put aside differences to pave the way for an initiative that will serve the common interests of all,” he said, addressing the Russian and Ukrainian representatives.
The deal will enable Ukraine to export 22 million tons of grain and other agricultural products that have been stuck in Black Sea ports due to the war.
FULL article at this link (https://www.news8000.com/i/ukraine-russia-sign-u-n-deal-to-export-grain-on-black-sea/)
GratefulCitizen
09-12-2022, 23:04
Interesting article.
The modern battlefield is complex.
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2022/09/could_this_be_what_putin_and_the_mullahs_are_cooki ng_up.html
Airbornelawyer
09-13-2022, 15:46
As many of you may remember, in 1995, after the surprising (to most observers) success of the Croatian counteroffensives recapturing virtually all of the Srpska Krajina in Croatia and linking up with Bosnian forces in the Bihać pocket, the Bosnian and Bosnian Croats launched a counteroffensive of their own. Prior to the offensive, the Bosnian Serbs had controlled about 70% of Bosnia, but they were threatened with similar dramatic losses. The Bosnian Serbs and their Serb backers immediately went to the negotiating table, resulting in the Dayton agreement which locked in Serb control of about 50% of Bosnia (even though Bosnian Serbs account for just over 30% of the population).
The Bosnian Muslim, Bosnian Croat and Croatian armies had the initiative on the ground, but they were dependent on Western support. Therefore, the US, the EU and other supporters had leverage, which they used to force the Bosnian Muslims and Croats to agree, giving up some recaptured territory in the process.
If the current Ukrainian counteroffensives continue to make gains, I wonder if a similar process will play out. Putin may conclude that the costs of escalating in response are too high, and content himself with trying to lock in current gains, which include most of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts, as well as Crimea. This would allow him to claim victory with a land corridor to Crimea and control of most of the potentially resource-rich Donbas. Putin could use alleviating the current European/global energy crisis by reopening pipelines as a carrot to encourage the West to use their leverage over Ukraine to bring Kyiv to the negotiating table.
Of course, the Ukrainian counteroffensives could stall as their supply lines get stretched and as weather worsens. If so, it may be back to the battles of attrition and incremental gains and losses we've seen over the past few months.
Badger52
09-13-2022, 18:31
Of course, the Ukrainian counteroffensives could stall as their supply lines get stretched and as weather worsens.
Whole post worth reading 2x. Fine post. To the above, of course whether their lines are stretched or challenges are weather-driven, the other thing is that the big "We" can probably make that thing stall at will.
GratefulCitizen
09-25-2022, 17:58
Interesting to get this particular insight into geo-political issues from a psychologist.
Perhaps Putin had an exit strategy that allowed for “failure”.
Scorched earth tactics are pretty standard for Russia.
In the big picture, the strategic preconditions were what mattered (energy dependence).
On Piers Morgan’s face, you can see the gradual realization of all of the inevitable consequences.
Sometimes the only choices are bad and worse.
https://youtu.be/hAqWOMmgTUY
Golf1echo
09-25-2022, 20:00
^
Not a big fan of Pierce but what the guest is saying really resonates with me. When one considers this explanation https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=l6tSqGCfoCI along with what some of our politicians have been up to ; Al Gore https://financialpost.com/news/how-al-gore-amassed-a-200-million-fortune-after-presidential-defeat/wcm/da139d1a-fa74-4fac-9171-427798151a0c/amp/ , Nancy Pelosi https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pelosi-200-million-san-francisco-presidio-park-congress.amp along with the rest of the liberal global warming cabal. In essence they would have us shoot our selves while they get rich. It’s pathetic so many have the wool pulled over their eyes.
I’m pretty sure people who are looking at things with their eyes open don’t need me to undermine the current administration, my point is that truth and transparency is not a hallmark currently. The narration is not what is happening. How does this relate to Russia and Ukraine? We know that Ukraine had some issues before Russia invaded that involved the Current administration, I certainly don’t support the invasion but am increasingly concerned about the narrative based on a complete lack of credibility in my eyes. There seems to be the all to familiar and concerning drift going on. If one has time, and many of you have your own insights, here is a counter point and some challenges to the current narrative:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Lkg4kN6pC6s
YMMV