Russian Armor Floods Toward Border With Ukraine Amid Fears Of An "Imminent Crisis"

[Pete]

Russian Armor Floods Toward Border With Ukraine Amid Fears Of An "Imminent Crisis"

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/40016/russian-armor-floods-toward-border-with-ukraine-amid-fears-of-an-imminent-crisis

"Trains loaded with large amounts of Russian military hardware, including tanks and other heavy armored vehicles, as well as heavy artillery, appear to be streaming toward the country's borders with Ukraine. There are unconfirmed reports that the scale of these movements is so significant that it has, to the dismay of Russian farmers, disrupted shipments of tractors and other agricultural equipment ahead of the spring harvest season. U.S. officials are now worried that a new major round of fighting between Russia and Ukraine may be imminent as a ceasefire is at risk of expiring tomorrow......"

Not sure on this source and can't find any other stories from other sources.

Wonder if there is concern at the White House?

[Pete]

US general calls Ukrainian, Russian counterparts over reported Russian troop movements

https://americanmilitarynews.com/2021/03/us-general-calls-ukrainian-russian-counterparts-over-reported-russian-troop-movements/

"A top U.S. general called his counterparts in Russia and Ukraine on March 31 amid reports of a buildup of Russian troops along Ukraine’s border and in Crimea, the Pentagon confirmed on March 31.

Defense Department spokesman John Kirby confirmed that Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley called top military leaders in Russia and Ukraine and said the Pentagon is aware of Ukrainian military reports concerning Russian troop movements near Ukraine’s borders......"

I'm sure the Biden/Harris administration has their eyes on this.

[Flagg]

I wonder if, besides the US SF led NATO effort to turn the Baltics into a poison pill if swallowed, it would make sense to load up Ukraine with middle power(Israeli/Turk) UCAVs?

The Azerbaijanis absolutely smashed the largely Russian equipped Armenians with Israeli/Turk UCAVs.

I don’t see Putin being dumb enough to invade.

But I do see him lighting fires, particularly ones that can raise tensions and especially raise energy prices(which Russia and Russia’s government is hugely reliant upon).

[Box]

I don’t see Putin being dumb enough to invade.

Putin is going to have this Russian armor drive into Ukraine in reverse.
When the Harris-Biden administration asks "what the hell is going on?"
...Putins commanders are going to say "Dont worry, we were just leaving"

At which point the Harris-Biden administration will pause for the media fact-checkers to declare that the Russian tanks are in fact, facing AWAY from Ukraine and not into Ukraine. Once the fact-checkers declare that the armor is NOT advancing into Ukraine - at best the armor is RETREATING into Ukraine. Then the administration will declare victory against that soulless murderer named Putinget so they can get back to the much more important business of weakening election security, raising taxes, directing how people will be allowed to celebrate independence day, putting immigrant children in cages while limited media coverage, and advancing the illusion of diversity and inclusion.

nothing to see here - move along

[tom kelly]

Nothing to worry about, Hunter Biden has this under control...What ever happened to Lt.Col. Vindman & his brother the White House "Advisor" (SPY) ???? They are from the Ukraine.

[PSM]

Interesting timing, Chief son just had an article published in the FA Professional Bulletin. (Well, I can't upload the PDF of just his part.) Long-range Fires Gap: https://sill-www.army.mil/USAFAS/bulletin/

[Badger52]

Interesting article that details a Russian media interview with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (https://thesaker.is/crucial-interview-of-foreign-minister-lavrov-must-read/) (interview dtd 1 April 2021, not April Fool's joke).
Vyacheslav Nikonov: The word “war” has been heard increasingly more often lately. US and NATO politicians, even more so the Ukrainian military, have no trouble saying it. Do you have more reasons to be concerned now than ever before?

Sergey Lavrov: Yes and no. On the one hand, the confrontation has hit bottom. On the other, deep down, there’s still hope that we are adults and understand the risks associated with escalating tensions further. However, our Western colleagues introduced the word “war” into the diplomatic and international usage. “The hybrid war unleashed by Russia” is a very popular description of what the West perceives as the main event in international life. I still believe that good judgment will prevail.

And it goes on, in many directions, including some interesting assessments of the ongoing "cultural revolution" in the US. Note that non-US interviews of this nature seem to be willing to take as long as they need, rather than 5 minutes to cut for 8 minutes of commercials.

Some of the comments are worth checking & are more insightful than seen at many American online sites.

[Ret10Echo]

Troop buildup at about 150,000 now. :munchin

Interesting

Russian (Soviet) thought processes have always been intriguing.

. Russian Buildup

Russia has amassed more than 100,000 troops near the Ukraine border in recent weeks, according to US intelligence. Satellite images also reveal the country has moved a number of fighter jets, armored ground units, attack helicopters, and other forces to strategic locations across the region. Western officials say the buildup is larger than that seen in 2014, when Russia invaded Ukraine and took control of the Crimean Peninsula.

Could be serious

Might just be Reforger or Team Spirit.

Or maybe they're just cheerleading the internal Ukrainian separatists to act out and create a crisis they can "help stabilize"?

. A Ukrainian soldier was killed and another wounded on Sunday in clashes with separatists in the east of the country, where such confrontations have increased amid renewed tensions with Moscow.

[Trapper John]

Anyone get the sense that maybe Iran, Russia, and China are coordinating efforts to test the Biden administration and US resolve? I am seeing reports of tripartite high level discussions. I doubt they're just talking about the weather?

[Ret10Echo]

It'd be easier to just send an few dozen across the open US Southern Border infected with something exotic and we'll self destruct on our own.


Biden-Harris is just asking we/they "What would Obama do?"

[Badger52]

I cannot help but feel that - for all the regime's direction toward tyranny domestically - they are completely clueless as to the intricacies of how other nations view us, what motivates them, what their interests are, etc. On that front they are, in my opinion, displaying a level of incompetence not seen in several years.

During the recent visit by PM Suga from Japan there was a joint brief address & media opportunity (i.e., "proof of life" for Biden) and Biden's handlers had clearly decided to take the course of pre-approved, scripted questions, from certain outlets mostly regarding Domestic policy. Even with that, Biden still displayed that migraine-look he gets, even with written pages or a teleprompter, that indicates the brain is in overload & having difficulty keeping up. What a marvelous - but in my eyes wasted - opportunity to put some rhetoric 'out there' for consumption by the rest of the world community regarding alliances in terms of security issues and not just who's building what where etc. I'm sure the PM brought a sufficient entourage to flesh some things out; they brought 2 Boeing 777's.
(Reagan's people were masters at this, knowing the importance of the words was not what page they were on in the WaPo. The key was the understanding by some leaders 12,000 miles away.)

These guys are missing the boat. I'm afraid things in 1 or 2 regions are going to get really spicy and then.... Harris is going to go into a fit of inappropriate cackling laughter at the wrong moment. As they say in the taverns, "and THAT's when the fight started."

[Badger52]

Interesting timing, Chief son just had an article published in the FA Professional Bulletin. (Well, I can't upload the PDF of just his part.) Long-range Fires Gap: https://sill-www.army.mil/USAFAS/bulletin/By the way, hat-tip to your progeny. This nugget caught my eye:
If the U.S. Army can't rely on Joint assets for fire support assistance, Commanders must assume tactical risk to influence operations with fire support assets. This is a requirement when nearly every U.S. Field Artillery asset is outranged on the battlefield.

[Roguish Lawyer]

Anyone get the sense that maybe Iran, Russia, and China are coordinating efforts to test the Biden administration and US resolve? I am seeing reports of tripartite high level discussions. I doubt they're just talking about the weather?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dzGmVUFDomc

[PSM]

By the way, hat-tip to your progeny.

¡Gracias, mi amigo!

[Trapper John]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dzGmVUFDomc

:lifter :D

[Badger52]

Thought it might be of interest to get the take on a regional back & forth that continues to take place in the NATO vs. Russia world. The Czechs have, perhaps, been awakened again with the publication of a report linking Russian operatives to the 2014 explosion at a munitions plant; 2 dead but billions in their currency lost. They've been also playing the usual diplomatic game of expelling each other's reps, but they also have taken the step of explicitly excluding Russian power provider Rosatom from being able to bid on a nuclear power expansion in CZ.

Direct link to the interview here (https://english.radio.cz/former-military-intelligence-chief-expulsion-18-russian-spies-biggest-problem-8715237).
Former MI Chief Andor Šandor: “I would say that what we are talking about now was something that had not been planned. Vrbětice by itself did not pose any threat to Russian security. In this respect, I believe the official version - that the blast was supposed to occur during the transport of the weapons. But if it happened by mistake, which we don’t know, that does not necessarily lessen the importance of the blast. The intention might have been different, but the result was outrageous. I would agree that there was a huge operation on our territory. The Russians are getting increasingly hostile. If you look at the fact that they consider NATO as their biggest enemy, then it is no surprise that they tried to undermine NATO. They are afraid of the Americans in particular. And the Americans play the biggest role in NATO, as you know.


General Foreign Policy page of Radio Prague here (https://english.radio.cz/foreign-policy), for some related perspectives.

[PSM]

By the way, hat-tip to your progeny. This nugget caught my eye:

Seems that BG A.D. Preston agrees (with a big check attached):

[JJ_BPK]

Interesting timing, Chief son just had an article published in the FA Professional Bulletin. (Well, I can't upload the PDF of just his part.) Long-range Fires Gap: https://sill-www.army.mil/USAFAS/bulletin/

Grabbed 4 pages with Screenshot Capture.. :munchin

[Badger52]

Seems that BG A.D. Preston agrees (with a big check attached)::D

[PSM]

Grabbed 4 pages with Screenshot Capture.. :munchin

Thanks, JJ! When the issue came out, the COL ferreted out the Chiefs' burrow and asked him to autograph it. :D

[Penn]

Prediction: imo, Putin is going to invade, and even money on China acting on its long term goal. Two different AO, Two superpowers acting in concert, the world will change overnight and there is nothing that the west can do to prevent this strategic move.
The west is not in a position after 20 years in SWA and the ME. to stop anything.

[Box]

I wonder if General Milley has made any phone calls to our enemies to ensure them that we are NOT going to attack or start a war...
...after all, he HAS done it before.

[Badger52]

I wonder if General Milley has made any phone calls to our enemies to ensure them that we are NOT going to attack or start a war...
...after all, he HAS done it before.
This is the perfect time (https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/01/24/hot-mic-joe-biden-calls-fox-news-reporter-stupid-son-of-a-bh-over-inflation-question/) for Peter Doocy at Fox to ask that very question.

[Old Dog New Trick]

This is the perfect time (https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/01/24/hot-mic-joe-biden-calls-fox-news-reporter-stupid-son-of-a-bh-over-inflation-question/) for Peter Doocy at Fox to ask that very question.

Well, if he asked Biden, he’d just call him, “a stupid son of a bitch!” (AGAIN)

[Nothing like bringing civility back to the White House and treating people with respect. Joe should “fire” himself “on the spot!” (His words not mine)

[Badger52]

Here is a read of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's response (https://vk.com/@580896205-lavrov-tells-us-part-of-the-reply) to the communication sent to him by the US. Some juicy tidbits, there is also a full link to FM Lavrov's website with his full discussion, interview style. The US communication was provided to the rest of NATO and Ukraine and probably Mr. Ed & Wilbur so he has no illusions it will remain "confidential" - but this is a sharp guy & worth listening to given that he's seen & survived a lot. He also (inconveniently for the west) brings up that old outdated notion that if you break a part of an international treaty or agreement, then the whole thing is rendered moot. Which, if I recall, as been international protocol since... ever. (Barristers please correct me if I'm wrong.)

Second up is a short missive by a regular blogger (https://thesaker.is/now-is-the-time-to-give-time-to-time/) making the case to give "time" some time (to work).

[Remington Raidr]

Russia will mass up but will NOT invade, but the administration has an interest in fear mongering about this, and they will claim "he kept us out of war". Where have I heard THAT before.:mad:

[Badger52]

If this is borne out (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10455045/Putin-agrees-hold-talks-Germany-France-Ukraine-NATO-squabbles.html), it's one of those "Bobby Lee stole a march on General Grant" type things.
---------------
Putin splits NATO and cuts out Biden: Russian president agrees to hold talks with Germany, France and Ukraine as squabbling NATO countries fail to decide joint troop deployment and Joe says he'll go it alone

Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed to meet with Germany, France and Ukraine over the Ukraine-Russian border crisis
The European-led talk, which will be held in two weeks in Berlin, is said to focus on ''de-escalation' and excludes NATO and the US

Rather than meet with NATO, Putin has agreed to discuss the issue with the European-led Normandy Format, a grouping that includes France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia. Their meetings center on the cease-fire agreement that the countries brokered in eastern Ukraine in 2015, and it also offers a path to a broader settlement.

Putin said he had 'no offensive plans' in eastern Ukraine, according to Macron, who said the nations' talks would focus on 'de-escalation' along the Ukraine-Russian border, the New York Times reported.

The Normandy Format will meet in Berlin in two weeks, after Russia has already amassed over 100,000 troops at the Ukraine border.
:munchin

[JimP]

Putin is a lot of things, but he's not stupid.

Biden is a lot of things, as well as being stupid.

Don't let this senile, dementia-addled pedophile push us into a war that even Ukraine is saying isn't going to happen.

[Badger52]

Just a link that seems to have a decent assortment of news (in English).
Some may find it worth perusing. Being mainstream Ukraine they do seem to have a slight bent toward the "why in the world would Russia blame the west for all this turmoil?" in some of their writing. But there are some decent general interest articles as well.

https://www.kyivpost.com/

:munchin

p.s. One thing I noticed. They solicit the reader to highlight a misspelled English word and hit a key-sequence to report it. American online journals wouldn't dare do that.
:D

[The Reaper]

One point to demonstrate how woefully unprepared we are to confront this single threat.

The Russkies appear to have between nine and eleven divisions of troops around Ukrainian borders. These are mostly heavy divisions with a lot of armor.

That is more combat power than we have in our entire active military. As we used to say, quantity has a quality all its own.

We went from forward deployed forces configured to fight and win two major simultaneous conflicts to one that has largely been focused on counter-insurgency for the last 20 years, and appears to now be focused on feelings.

Stand by, this one (and potentially a second one courtesy of the Chinese) could leave a mark.

TR

[Badger52]

With the usual skeptical eye toward the source, the ownership of the moment would seem to not be in DC or Brussels:

RT article with photos (https://www.rt.com/russia/549402-troops-withdrawing-ukraine-border/) depicting armor loading and a Defense Ministry statement.

Another one. (https://www.rt.com/russia/549404-russian-tanks-belarus-videos/)

Ukraine President Zelensky predicted tomorrow as a likely invasion date and declared it a Unity Day for Ukrainians. Remains to be seen where the trains are headed.

[JJ_BPK]

One point to demonstrate how woefully unprepared we are to confront this single threat.

The Russkies appear to have between nine and eleven divisions of troops around Ukrainian borders. These are mostly heavy divisions with a lot of armor.

That is more combat power than we have in our entire active military. As we used to say, quantity has a quality all its own.


TR

TR, et all

Does the Ruskie massive heavy armor build-up not set the stage for the exact problem the Germans run into in WWII.

I'm thinking the Eastern Europe transportation infrastructure has improved somewhat, but those improvements will focus that armor into limited and concentrated roads as the Spring thaw starts.

Effectively making the armor easy targets,, not unlike the "Highway of Death" between Kuwait and Basra in 1991.







Rasputitsa – Quagmire on the Eastern Front, 24 Mar 2018 by Steven Thomas

The rasputitsa are severe weather conditions occurring in Eastern Europe, particularly in areas that were part of the Soviet Union during WW2.

The rasputitsa occurs twice a year, in the spring and autumn.

The spring rasputitsa occurs when the surface level ice and snow starts to melt over ground that is still frozen.

The Autumn rasputitsa occurs because of the rainy season. Although the cause is different the effect is the same.

The ground, including unpaved roads, dissolve into mud and rivers can become enlarged. The result is transport bogs down, making troop movement and logistics very difficult.

The Russian term ‘time without roads’ very aptly describes the conditions.

https://balagan.info/rasputitsa-quagmire-on-the-eastern-front

from: Steven's Balagan, Spanish and Portuguese Military History, Wargaming, and other stuff

[mark46th]

How many A-10's do we have? Better start making more.

[Badger52]

How many A-10's do we have? Better start making more.No kidding. They shouldn't have stopped; I imagine some of those original airframes are getting pretty creaky. I miss seeing them up here, lining up inbound on the Chief of Staff's 2nd-story office...
:cool:

Personally I think Putin's going home, having achieved the high-RPM count on the west's emotional tachometer & will have a good laugh.
Besides, it's too warm for a mechanized party, as JJ points out. I've not been there but have heard that mud is like grease.

[Trapper John]

One point to demonstrate how woefully unprepared we are to confront this single threat.

The Russkies appear to have between nine and eleven divisions of troops around Ukrainian borders. These are mostly heavy divisions with a lot of armor.

That is more combat power than we have in our entire active military. As we used to say, quantity has a quality all its own.

We went from forward deployed forces configured to fight and win two major simultaneous conflicts to one that has largely been focused on counter-insurgency for the last 20 years, and appears to now be focused on feelings.

Stand by, this one (and potentially a second one courtesy of the Chinese) could leave a mark.

TR

Finest Kind TR :lifter

[The Reaper]

How many A-10's do we have? Better start making more.

Remember the old ADA adage?

If it flies, it dies.

The Russians have made a lot of crap, but their integrated air defense systems are pretty good and there are lots of them.

I hope we have some super secret high tech we have been hiding, but if we did, the Chinese have probably already stolen it and shared it with the Russians.

Time to get some of the M1 Abrams back out and in the depots in Europe.

Of course, it takes balls to make that call.

TR

[Roguish Lawyer]

I consider myself fortunate to enjoy both borsht and rice. Not looking forward to the lines, though.

[Box]

Not looking forward to the lines, though.


Just pretend it is spring of 2020 you are in line for toilet paper and hand sanitizer - you wont even notice the inconvenience.

[Roguish Lawyer]

Just pretend it is spring of 2020 you are in line for toilet paper and hand sanitizer - you wont even notice the inconvenience.

Thank you, Comrade Box, I will of course learn to appreciate the opportunity to spend time with my fellow citizens awaiting public assistance that will address my every need.

[Surf n Turf]

One point to demonstrate how woefully unprepared we are to confront this single threat.

The Russkies appear to have between nine and eleven divisions of troops around Ukrainian borders. These are mostly heavy divisions with a lot of armor.
That is more combat power than we have in our entire active military. As we used to say, quantity has a quality all its own.

We went from forward deployed forces configured to fight and win two major simultaneous conflicts to one that has largely been focused on counter-insurgency for the last 20 years, and appears to now be focused on feelings.

Stand by, this one (and potentially a second one courtesy of the Chinese) could leave a mark.

TR

TR,

Those 9-11 divisions, allegedly focused on Ukraine*, are soldiers from only Mother Russia.

To show how far we have fallen, Imagine how this would focus our attention (pre-Xmas 1991),if there were combined forces from the former USSR (with all the +/-)

But, Diversity is our strength

Something else to remember is that Putin is not taking OJT. On 7 May, President Putin will celebrate 10 years in office (if you count is time as Prime Minister under Medvedev.)

*Some think that Putin already has what he wants with Donetsk, Crimea and Nord Stream, leaving the Ukraine as a runner up to Moldova as the poor neighbor who can be bribed with 20 kopeks.

SnT

[Badger52]

Well, it's 0400 tomorrow over there, I guess we all should've been loaded out & rollin' by now... oh, WAIT - this is 2022.

A handful of articles that some may find interesting given the current kerfuffle now that Putin has recognized the eastern areas as legitimate independent republics - and is, by all accounts, inserting some "peacekeepers."

ZeroHedge discusses an article from Der Spiegel (https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/germanys-spiegel-asks-vladimir-putin-right-over-nato-expansion) that asks "Is Vladimir Putin right?"

An addendum to that is an article from Dec 2017 (https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/newly-declassified-documents-gorbachev-told-nato-wouldnt-23629) regarding (at the time) newly declas docs that indicated pretty clearly that Gorbachev & Russia were given assurances that NATO had no intentions of moving eastward at all. (Always get that shit in writing, no?)

Finally an interesting article that interviews Finnish President Sauli Niinistö (https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/finnish-president-sauli-niinistoe-on-putin-and-the-ukraine-conflict-a-bb9281d3-2cc6-49a1-87eb-199569991c79) regarding his impressions of Putin, garnered over quite a few years of visits, meals, and even some shared ice hockey.

[EricV]

Looks like it may have started...

"Looks like the cameras at the Kalanchak border post to Crimea went offline a few minutes ago right after the Ukrainian troops and staff there could be seen running away and leaving it empty".

"Reports that the frontline at Mariupol on the Sea of Azov coast is under heavy indirect fire at the moment."

Interesting post by one of you guys...

CAN UKRAINIAN RESISTANCE FOIL A RUSSIAN VICTORY?
BRIAN S. PETITFEBRUARY 18, 2022
https://warontherocks.com/2022/02/can-ukrainian-resistance-foil-a-russian-victory/


Retired Colonel Petit
https://missionsixzero.com/our-team/brian-petit/

[PSM]

Well:

[PSM]

This from a Ukraine International Airline pilot I follow:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E9UHMPZ5qqA

[Badger52]

End of day 2 recap (https://thesaker.is/russian-operation-in-the-ukraine-end-of-day-2/) from a non-MSM Russian blogger, former analyst, now living in the west.


Today was only day two of the Russian military operation. And yet, what a day it was!!!

First, a quick update on the progress of Russian forces. Here is a bulletpoint summary for today:

Kherson: liberated
Nikolaev: fighting taking pace in outskirts
Konotop: taken by Russians
Chernigov: blocked by all sides by Russian forces
Melitopol: surrounded
Mariupol: is under attack, street fighting
Severodonetsk: under attack
Kharkov: very heavy mopping up operation
Suma: mopping up operations
Kiev: blocked from the West and under attack, the authorities are distributing weapons
Gostomel airport has been captured by Russian forces
Zaporozhie: Russian forces expected there tomorrow
A land corridor from Crimea to Russia should be opened by tomorrow.
Odessa: big question mark – so far, not Russian attacks reported (that I know of!)
Terminology used (viewpoint) is interesting in the denigration of the current apparatus running Ukraine.
Remainder of article at the link above.

[mark46th]

I re-posted this to a site that has some Ukrainians on it. They said it was Russian data.

[Badger52]

I re-posted this to a site that has some Ukrainians on it. They said it was Russian data.Not surprised.

[Penn]

A simple little article may be predicting that Putin is not going to win the long game.

"This can cost us our lives," she said. "However, we know this, and we are not terrified."


https://www.foxnews.com/media/ukrainian-mother-captures-the-spirit-of-resistance-and-resilience-amid-russian-invasion

[Badger52]

A simple little article may be predicting that Putin is not going to win the long game.

"This can cost us our lives," she said. "However, we know this, and we are not terrified."


https://www.foxnews.com/media/ukrainian-mother-captures-the-spirit-of-resistance-and-resilience-amid-russian-invasionCaught her earlier today. Resolute, and 3-1/2 minutes worth it.