View Full Version : Disruptive Technology
In 1979/80 an employee told me his little 15-year-old brother was buying stock in a company called Apple, describing what it was and what the future, according to this 15 y/o was going to be. I missed that bus, too deep in the rabbit hole of creating a business following a different path.
Today, I think we are in the exact same space. The difference is we are about to drive the technology , rather than sit in front of it. Lithium, may or may not be a finite resource, while Hydrogen is abundant, both are power/fuel that will disrupt the combustion driven systems.
This revolution is green, and there are number of companies worth your time to investigate.
That said, there is a broader disruption that will change manufacturing as we know it, and which dovetails the EV revolution and far more disruptive, impacting everything we know and touch. This conclusion was reach through questioning how green could the EV market become, if all the technology to build EV’s was rooted in non-green manufacturing, e.g., injection molding, machining with water-based drilling, will disappear and along with it the factory.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1754820/000121390020023766/ea126039-425_trineacq.htm
In that regard, the social impact of this disruption will, imoo, end fracking, seriously undermine the oil industry, and close factories around the world. Unemployment will sky-rocket, governments will be forced to subsidize their citizens, or face overwhelming resentment, bread and circuses will not work.
With this in mind, that the future is already here, what are the other systems that will cease to serve the future we are being propelled into?
With this in mind, that the future is already here, what are the other systems that will cease to serve the future we are being propelled into?
tracking:munchin
Golf1echo
11-16-2020, 10:10
Not trying to deviate from the post but rather an observation of second and third orders of what you speak of.
Personal freedoms and liberties will be at risk. Where to live, work/participate, what we can own, what we can do, etc... As government grows so does regulation, very different from a free market economy...
Thinking about your question and then how innovation was driven 50 years ago vs say 25 years ago we see more systems and controls now.
A few examples: Listening to music and access to visual information. That development was all about bringing access to end users, smaller, more portable units, different power options and formats, etc...Competitive economies driven by end users. Today we have economies that look to control content, access and costs ie ms owns link d in, gaggle owns utube , not devices but access and content at their discretion.
Vehicles aren’t far behind safety, fuel, licensing, insurance, fees and the like.
Computers and phones are another example, how many different cell phones have individuals gone through? How many computer operating systems have we gone through and why? To support some of the wealthiest corporations in the world, to build industries of security and support because of built in flaws...
Not meant to be a rant but more an observation of how the bigger picture of innovation and the priorities within those developments have changed over time.
LongWire
11-16-2020, 15:46
You can already see how disruptive the net has been with companies like Amazon.... Malls are disappearing and being replaced by server farms, except for the food court because we still have to eat!
I believe that COVID will help further the robotic and no touch assembly/processing lines.....
There was a 60mins episode I watched within the last couple of yrs, PreCovid, they have a shitton of different EV manufacturers which are producing a shitton of EV's. We are way behind.......
My observation was/is more about opportunity in the market place and the impact of DT on social systems. Lithium companies and their stocks are inexpensive right now, charging station companies like Plug and Fuel Cell, will replace service stations in the very near future. Gas pumps may become rare.
Trine financing and partnership with Desktop Metal, which is the realization of StarTreks replicator, they completely reimagined the 3D printer on an industrial scale.
Design programs and engineers become the machinist, which will force education into STEM curricula, or offer students an open course catalogue for their interest.
If replicators can produce any object, part, or design, labor is reduce to thought and someone pushing the start button.
The axiom of "as government expands, freedom declines," may not prove true in the near future. Image the amount of leisure time that is increased as labor is impacted, by the advent of AI meeting industrial replication. The cascade of personal choice's open to the individual will demand the freedom to enjoy one's life. Government will have to meet that understanding.
cat in the hat
11-17-2020, 09:28
The axiom of "as government expands, freedom declines," may not prove true in the near future. Image the amount of leisure time that is increased as labor is impacted, by the advent of AI meeting industrial replication. The cascade of personal choice's open to the individual will demand the freedom to enjoy one's life. Government will have to meet that understanding.
Two thoughts
If AI/robotics are performing most labor, what do the former human workers do for a living?
At what point will some fool demand it is a "moral imperative" that we grant said AI/robots equal rights?
If AI/robotics are performing most labor, what do the former human workers do for a living?
Over the next 5 to 10 generations, we may be able, with precisely engineered bio-mechanical tweaking improve the live-stock
The problem is AI improvements will not wait for humans to catch-up..
In the real world, humans have always been behind to curve :munchin
mark46th
11-17-2020, 09:50
Out here in Commiefornia a bad result of technology is the state is talking about tracking each vehicle and taxing the individual by how many miles driven.
Out here in Commiefornia a bad result of technology is the state is talking about tracking each vehicle and taxing the individual by how many miles driven.
Mileage based taxation isn't a new idea. When states realized that mandating better gas mileage or encouraging hybrids meant less money in tax revenue generated by gas sales, they went looking for a new income stream.
Mileage based driving tax is just one of those income streams.
CatiinHat
If AI/robotics are performing most labor, what do the former human workers do for a living?
My thinking is there will be a universal wage, much like what we have experience with lockdown this year. Unemployment supplemented/replaced by a system that drives its income from large corporations like amazon/google/apple, etc., as the work force transitions, the tax structure for individuals will no longer be collected.
The once over taxed human worker is now paid through the robotic labor force. Maybe the drone's carry a ID & SS# matched to an individual.
LongWire
11-17-2020, 13:40
Out here in Commiefornia a bad result of technology is the state is talking about tracking each vehicle and taxing the individual by how many miles driven.
There was a 60mins episode I watched within the last couple of yrs, PreCovid, they have a shitton of different EV manufacturers which are producing a shitton of EV's. We are way behind.......
Said episode showed that you could track every EV, and even isolate by manufacturer. I’m sure you could pull down other ways to isolate them License ETC....
Badger52
11-17-2020, 15:17
The once over taxed human worker is now paid through the robotic labor force. Maybe the drone's carry a ID & SS# matched to an individual.Are all drones equal, or are some more equal than others, in terms of their generation of a revenue stream? Not rhetorical. Seems to me a rather quickly reached "achievement plateau."
:munchin
cat in the hat
11-17-2020, 16:36
Are all drones equal, or are some more equal than others, in terms of their generation of a revenue stream? Not rhetorical. Seems to me a rather quickly reached "achievement plateau."
:munchin
The once over taxed human worker is now paid through the robotic labor force. Maybe the drone's carry a ID & SS# matched to an individual.
If they're matching me with a robot I call dibbs
Forgetting for the moment, AI/Robotic and its utopian future, who among us would not want the opportunity to pursue their interest and not have the burden of financial consideration.
Imagine the entire fleet of Amazon delivery vans all programed to derive income based on milage and autonomous mapping. Efficiency of service eliminates payroll, pensions, and medical cost. Allowing for a fund/national wage program. Add in FedEX, DHL, and all the local on time delivery service, excluding the postal service -but they already are subsidize- and you have the beginning foundation of a revenue generator that could possible fill the void, while at the same time expand personal choice, based on interest.
I also think Darwin would fill part of the new leisure time void, culling poor decision makers rapidly.
LongWire
11-19-2020, 17:55
History would probably illustrate how misguided that type of thinking would get us IMOO.....
The present US vs Them dynamics point toward a more bleak view... I’m seeing a future that looks more like the movie Elysium. If we continue to feed into an US vs Them view, then at some point we end up being on the them side instead of US. Workers will always be in the them category.....
LW, the rose colored lens did not prevent me from adding another 1k 5.56 to the store.The future is here, EV will represent 50% of the vehicle's on the road in 5 years.
Most will have the capability of automatous control as a standard. Rather than argue about the specifics, a broad brushstroke might be more useful in obtaining a seat at the table of change.
Imo, the Green New Deal was DOA. Presented with a condescending attitude of knowing, rather than a presentation of where AI/Robotics/Nano tech is leading us into a possible new future, one that will impact everything we know.
Love muscle cars, Harley is not going anywhere, but the system of combustion is reaching its end state, which could be 25 years down the road. Collectible cars will always have a place, but the infrastructure to support that system will be reduced by a sizable number. In my mind, I'm in my '74 El darado convertible, Black, white leather interior, crusing down Hwy 89, outside Yellowstone with the sun on my face, and a check in the mail.
The Reaper
11-19-2020, 19:56
LW, the rose colored lens did not prevent me from adding another 1k 5.56 to the store.The future is here, EV will represent 50% of the vehicle's on the road in 5 years.
Most will have the capability of automatous control as a standard. Rather than argue about the specifics, a broad brushstroke might be more useful in obtaining a seat at the table of change.
Imo, the Green New Deal was DOA. Presented with a condescending attitude of knowing, rather than a presentation of where AI/Robotics/Nano tech is leading us into a possible new future, one that will impact everything we know.
Love muscle cars, Harley is not going anywhere, but the system of combustion is reaching its end state, which could be 25 years down the road. Collectible cars will always have a place, but the infrastructure to support that system will be reduced by a sizable number. In my mind, I'm in my '74 El darado convertible, Black, white leather interior, crusing down Hwy 89, outside Yellowstone with the sun on my face, and a check in the mail.
Where will the electricity to power 200,000,000 EVs come from?
Who pays for the infrastructure?
TR
LongWire
11-20-2020, 03:42
Harley is not going anywhere,
By what I’ve been seeing, that’s simply not the case. Harley isn’t selling 30K+ bikes that break down on the regular to the millennials or younger. Harley is losing its demographic, and they don’t really have a direction.
Yes they are making an electric bike, and by all accounts it kicks ass, however sales are not that hot and Harley dealerships aren’t the friendliest to anyone walking in for that bike. That’s how they killed Buell....They are also making a kick ass e bicycle, but try selling one of those to the tribe..... how about the new Adventure bike? Anyone?..... management keeps shuffling..... if Harley expects to stick around they have their work cut out for them.
TR, I think the answer might be a combination of solar , NG, and nuclear energy. Fuel cells as they develop, will increase storage capacity. The real key is can a system be design in the EV that would recharge Lithium batteries while running.
The Reaper
11-20-2020, 14:04
TR, I think the answer might be a combination of solar , NG, and nuclear energy. Fuel cells as they develop, will increase storage capacity. The real key is can a system be design in the EV that would recharge Lithium batteries while running.
I agree with your sentiment, but disagree with the practicality of it.
Most EVs need to charge overnight.
Any idea what solar power does overnight?
A large part of the people pushing for EVs abhor nuclear power.
NG is a fossil fuel and is therefore evil to the aforementioned EV fans.
If I cannot leave on a cross-country trip without meticulously planning out the route based on EV charging stations, I would call that in an immature technology.
That is not even considering the trucking industry and heavy vehicles.
YMMV.
TR
PedOncoDoc
11-20-2020, 15:45
I agree with your sentiment, but disagree with the practicality of it.
Most EVs need to charge overnight.
Any idea what solar power does overnight?
A large part of the people pushing for EVs abhor nuclear power.
NG is a fossil fuel and is therefore evil to the aforementioned EV fans.
If I cannot leave on a cross-country trip without meticulously planning out the route based on EV charging stations, I would call that in an immature technology.
That is not even considering the trucking industry and heavy vehicles.
YMMV.
TR
I'd still like to see the calculated MPG if charging with a gas-powered generator...
FlagDayNCO
11-20-2020, 20:43
As someone who has an interest in the business, so to speak, New Jersey is a prime example.
The utility companies have played their cards and said they are eliminating fossil fuel electric generation. The state government will make it very expensive to purchase fossil fuel generated electricity and I believe even make it illegal in the future.
You as the customer will not even have that source as a choice. The leftists that have been placed in the leadership roles of all these companies are eliminating what you want. You’ll be left with choices you wouldn’t make.
And that’s across every service, every business, every food producer. EVERYTHING
Does anyone know that there are HUNDREDS of start up companies in every major metropolitan area that have redesigned food growing? Old (and new) warehouses that grow indoors year round. This has been going on for several years. “Oh, they need the farmers in flyover country to feed the leftists in the cities” is being defeated. Not only indoor growing, but advances in everything related to it, from seed to delivery to your door. It’s all being done. It’s very tightly controlled. Not just accelerating growing cycles, but quality, yields and lack of pests/ parasites. No more freezing or torrential rains or droughts to affect crops.
I say that because we as a nation and as a society are experiencing changes on many fronts, not just political.
Last, with so much technology being used to advance this indoor farming, there’s also firm, positive control on deciding where it goes and who gets to eat.
Think about how much freedom you’ll have when you’re not allowed to leave the protected zone... if you want to eat.
Here’s one: https://aerofarms.com/story/
GratefulCitizen
11-20-2020, 21:53
I agree with your sentiment, but disagree with the practicality of it.
Most EVs need to charge overnight.
Any idea what solar power does overnight?
A large part of the people pushing for EVs abhor nuclear power.
NG is a fossil fuel and is therefore evil to the aforementioned EV fans.
If I cannot leave on a cross-country trip without meticulously planning out the route based on EV charging stations, I would call that in an immature technology.
That is not even considering the trucking industry and heavy vehicles.
YMMV.
TR
UPS, the largest trucking company in the world, has been buying primarily CNG powered tractors for years now.
The Arizona fleet is mainly CNG.
We have our own fueling stations in the major hubs.
The CNG tractors are slightly cheaper per mile to operate, and the emissions are less than 1/50th the level of the new "clean" diesel tractors.
There are both electric hybrid and CNG package cars being used in small numbers, hard to say which will prove more economical over a life-cycle (tractors have much shorter life-cycles).
The way package cars are used (stop and go) is conducive to electric power, but the tractors most certainly are not.
There is also the case of government meddling.
Tax breaks, grants, expense avoidance, etc...
UPS applies for and gets government grants to buy "clean" CNG tractors that they would've bought anyway.
California restricts which tractors can enter, so UPS just sends our CNG tractors and enjoys a market advantage over our competitors.
Also, the fact that oil fields have had restrictions on flaring natural gas has created an oversupply.
Natural gas was once a waste product in oil production and now must be brought to market instead of being burned.
It's hard to compete with free.
That is not even considering the trucking industry and heavy vehicles.
YMMV.
TR
Actually, the former CEO of an $19.99 or less retailer that I know and whose products you've all "Seen on TV" suggested that this and the RV market is the place to start. He built his own EV car and doesn't see the efficiency of personal vehicles. But, for OTR trucks, the truck stops are roughly 2 hours apart. If the tractors had common batteries, at every pit stop the batteries could be quickly switched out while the driver was peeing. RVs could have a similar system plus many stay overnight where they could recharge.
Overall, nuclear is the way to go.
CloseDanger
11-20-2020, 23:59
I don't know where this goes, but it's cool -
USSOCOM Virtual Innovation Foundry (IF7) Event - SOFWERX Events
USSOCOM Virtual Innovation Foundry (IF7) Event 20–22 January 2021 Submit NLT 10 December 2020 11:59 PM ET U.S. Citizens Only Purpose SOFWERX, in collaboration with USSOCOM’s Directorate of Science and Technology (S&T), will host the Seventh Innovation Foundry (IF7) Event. The objective is to bring together Special Operations Forces (SOF) represe...
https://events.sofwerx.org/IF7/
GratefulCitizen
11-21-2020, 11:05
If AI/robotics are performing most labor, what do the former human workers do for a living?
This is greatly influenced by tax laws.
If there were no longer tax breaks for capital expenditures (depreciation schedules, etc.) and it was no longer a liability to employ workers (payroll tax, Medicare tax, mandated healthcare, etc.) the economics would quickly change.
Suppose companies were taxed soley on gross revenue, nobody was taxed on earned wages, and companies were given tax breaks only for wages paid.
Suddenly it would become far more profitable to employ many and pay them well.
Technology would only be worth the investment if it increased worker productivity to a level which offset the purchase, maintenance, and deprecation costs.
Investing in recruiting, training, and retaining the best workers would be the best investment (SF probably understands a thing or two about this...).
GratefulCitizen
11-21-2020, 11:54
Actually, the former CEO of an $19.99 or less retailer that I know and whose products you've all "Seen on TV" suggested that this and the RV market is the place to start. He built his own EV car and doesn't see the efficiency of personal vehicles. But, for OTR trucks, the truck stops are roughly 2 hours apart. If the tractors had common batteries, at every pit stop the batteries could be quickly switched out while the driver was peeing. RVs could have a similar system plus many stay overnight where they could recharge.
Overall, nuclear is the way to go.
The top 3 expenses in trucking are (in order): labor, fuel, and tires.
The driving (pun intended) factor in trucking operations is DOT mandated hours of service restrictions.
In short haul local operations, there is definitely a niche for battery or hybrid powered large vehicles, especially in public transportation/busses.
Long haul OTR trucking will be the last place where diesel is displaced.
Long haul trucking involves stuff that is either fast or slow.
The slow stuff is actually two short haul legs with a long leg in the middle where it goes by train and the fast stuff is done with either layover drivers or sleeper team drivers.
Tractor range is the most important factor for layover and team drivers because you don't want to burn driver time (DOT hours of service) refueling.
New technology just doesn't yet have the range to efficiently work within the laws governing driver hours without making the tractors too long or too heavy.
CNG tractors have a space problem, as the tanks are quite bulky.
LNG tractors have been tried and are efficient, but the refueling is complicated/dangerous, distribution infrastructure is sparse, they are prone to leakage issues, and they require three types of refueling: LNG, diesel (for starting/warmup), and DEF (required for emissions if diesel is used).
Battery powered tractors would be severely limited on range unless they had huge batteries.
In that case, they would run into problems with axle weight on the tractor or possibly risk blowing past 80,000lb GVW for the full vehicle, requiring permits and constantly getting flagged to run through weigh stations (which costs driver hours...).
Then there's the issue of maintenance and keeping tractors in service.
Modern tractors, with all the computers and electronics, constantly have to be in the shop.
The suspension must neccesarily be very stiff in order to bear such heavy loads safely.
Over time, electronics get shaken to the point where tractors get gremlins.
Something as simple as an ABS warning light is a serious violation (and potentially very unsafe) if the tractor is taken on road without the problem being corrected.
Electric tractors would likely be even more complicated in this regard, which means more last minute gremlins, and more driver hours lost.
UPS is always trying new technologies and testing them at a reasonably large scale to see if they're economical.
LNG tractors were tried and failed, CNG tractors were tried and work everywhere except in long haul, but electric tractors have yet to be tested large scale.
When you see UPS using all-electric vehicles on a significant scale, the technology is ready.
Badger52
11-21-2020, 12:09
When you see UPS using all-electric vehicles on a significant scale, the technology is ready.Really appreciate you fleshing this out from where the rubber (pun intended) meets the road. This happens to be the carrier in my neck of the woods that blows the others away. As a non-truck-literate consumer, my benchmark is simply that the service level remains. I'd imagine that the issue of remaining an apex predator in that business is a factor in "the technology is ready" decision.
Last hard class
11-22-2020, 03:15
The American Dream:
Elysium is a good visual. There is an idea out there that AI will someday squeeze the inefficiencies out of business. Which will dramatically change the investing world. At some point this will cause a break line. You will either be above or below the line. If below, the opportunity to get above will be extremely difficult.
Future transportation:
Don't get caught up in EV's. They are just a gating technology. Building the infrastructure's real problem is the amortization for private enterprise. It may be old technology before it pays itself off. That's where big gov comes in. Think Amazon. The internet was a DT but it was lobbying the Senate to not pay sales taxes like brick and mortars that gave Amazon its true competitive advantage. The Gov has done the same to alternative fuels and now technological advances and economies of scale has lowered the cost of electricity so that's its competitive. But its the technological advances that come from the push that is really key. Once again, don't get caught up in today's costs to build a wind power station for example. The cow is out of the barn.
Those Who lyrics: "Meet the new boss, same as the old boss". Energy companies are going to control energy. In whatever form is being used 50-100 years from now. But you globalist guys already know that.
I think a better question related to social change and future transportation is who is going to own a car? And what does that world look like? Mass amounts of money being poured into driverless vehicles. Uber et al is just scratching the surface. As mentioned, labor is the key. But when achieved for those purposes, you now have an underutilized asset. The personal vehicle. Most of the day it doesn't do anything. That's not optimal. Inefficient. As long as one is waiting in your driveway to take you to your destination, that's what really matters. Uber type software is just laying the foundation. Its called behavioral modification. My kid doesn't drive, doesn't want to.
Imagine a national grid of 200 million cars that no one owns. If you use that as a starting point, you can foresee many possibilities affecting our future social fabric.
LHC
Gratefulcitizen, GREAT post, very informative. Keep them coming!! :lifter
GratefulCitizen
11-22-2020, 12:29
The American Dream:
Elysium is a good visual. There is an idea out there that AI will someday squeeze the inefficiencies out of business. Which will dramatically change the investing world. At some point this will cause a break line. You will either be above or below the line. If below, the opportunity to get above will be extremely difficult.
Future transportation:
Don't get caught up in EV's. They are just a gating technology. Building the infrastructure's real problem is the amortization for private enterprise. It may be old technology before it pays itself off. That's where big gov comes in. Think Amazon. The internet was a DT but it was lobbying the Senate to not pay sales taxes like brick and mortars that gave Amazon its true competitive advantage. The Gov has done the same to alternative fuels and now technological advances and economies of scale has lowered the cost of electricity so that's its competitive. But its the technological advances that come from the push that is really key. Once again, don't get caught up in today's costs to build a wind power station for example. The cow is out of the barn.
Those Who lyrics: "Meet the new boss, same as the old boss". Energy companies are going to control energy. In whatever form is being used 50-100 years from now. But you globalist guys already know that.
I think a better question related to social change and future transportation is who is going to own a car? And what does that world look like? Mass amounts of money being poured into driverless vehicles. Uber et al is just scratching the surface. As mentioned, labor is the key. But when achieved for those purposes, you now have an underutilized asset. The personal vehicle. Most of the day it doesn't do anything. That's not optimal. Inefficient. As long as one is waiting in your driveway to take you to your destination, that's what really matters. Uber type software is just laying the foundation. Its called behavioral modification. My kid doesn't drive, doesn't want to.
Imagine a national grid of 200 million cars that no one owns. If you use that as a starting point, you can foresee many possibilities affecting our future social fabric.
LHC
Lots of good stuff here.
With regard to driverless vehicles:
UPS has already tested driverless tractors here in Arizona.
There was still a driver sitting at the controls ready to take over, but the computer was driving.
Most of the modern tractors have elements of this technology already, as do many passenger vehicles.
It shows up in: adaptive cruise control/collision mitigation (ACC), lane departure warning systems (LDW), and automated manual transmissions (AMT) in the case of heavy commercial vehicles.
In practice, these technologies reduce driver workload and fatigue so the driver can devote more attention to traffic and things that the sensors might miss.
I can't speak to the effectiveness of the AI, but the sensors are nowhere near ready for driverless vehicles and are easily confused or disabled by rising/setting sun, snow, and electrical gremlins.
The driver is the final safety element on a commercial vehicle before it goes on road and equipment inspection is a significant part of the job.
The driver, not the company, is liable for taking unsafe equipment on road.
Lawyers will be the downfall of driverless vehicles.
Who signs off and agrees to be liable for a driverless vehicle?
We already have something resembling driverless vehicles.
They're called trains.
They still require people at the controls.
They still wreck.
With regard to your Elysium analogy:
This is where most of the working world is getting screwed.
It's largely due to lack of knowledge concerning how debt and taxes really work.
To expand on an earlier post, the solution starts with not taxing wages, allowing employers tax breaks for labor costs but not allowing them tax breaks on depreciation.
There are two goals in this:
-Shift the tax burden away from the employees.
-Put labor and capital on an even playing field.
The next fix would be to make all interest paid on borrowed money tax deductible for natural persons, but not for corporations.
This would start to balance the the access to capital among different wealth/income levels, further level the playing field between capital and labor, and make the banking system (and capital in general) effectively more decentralized.
I think a better question related to social change and future transportation is who is going to own a car?
Think TaaS, Transportation As A Service. No upfront cost, no maintenance cost, no Ins cost. Uber and lift, fills the personal future personal transportation need. Autonomous EV at your pecking call. You pay miles driven and TOU (time of use). Google maps and drive.
In this new world ownership of material is not a certification of achievement, but of burden.
Your neighbor rats on you for having too many family members at Thanksgiving. Hail a cab, enter your TOU card, the address you want to go to, and go straight to jail instead.
Your neighbor rats on you for having too many family members at Thanksgiving. Hail a cab, enter your TOU card, the address you want to go to, and go straight to jail instead.
Pat, you make a good point. When we give up autonomy in exchange for “ease” we often sacrifice our individuality...we sacrifice our privacy.
There are some who advocate for totally giving up the use of cash/currency in exchange for the convenience of plastic.
But, there might be trips that I want to make - with no one knowing...there might be purchases that I might want to make - with no one knowing.
The thought of every trip and every purchase being cataloged for eternity...hopefully individual privacy concerns would be fleshed out better than the social media phenomena - which millions signed on for - without a deep dive into what such a release of personal data might really mean.
Badger52
11-26-2020, 06:57
Your neighbor rats on you for having too many family members at Thanksgiving. Hail a cab, enter your TOU card, the address you want to go to, and go straight to jail instead.Heinlein scenario that weaves through many of his cautionary tales. Well done sir.
:lifter
So the battery problem and the manufacturing issues for a green future has been solved. Before I go further, I have large position in each of these companies .
TRNE becomes DM tomorrow www.desktopmetal.com Industrial manufacturing on a digit green scale. Partnershiped with all the major auto makers in the world.
QS, www.quantumscape.com Solved the battery issue 80% charge in 15 minutes 800+ rollover charges and still counting. Battery life in excess of 150K, solid-state battery.
DM addresses manufacturing green for EV and QS, solves the power equation. Gene Roddenberry replicator becomes a reality.
Last hard class
01-22-2021, 01:50
I wanted to circle back to this idea. This week self driving Cruise (GM) received a $2B investment from Microsoft. (BTW: I also read Gates is now the largest individual farmland holder. So not taking the vaccine wont stop the ingestion of the chip if you buy food from a store.)
And the battery competition is heating up.
15 minutes to charge is so yesterday.
https://cleantechnica.com/2021/01/20/storedot-penn-state-announce-batteries-that-recharge-in-under-10-minutes/
I don't currently own an electric car, but I might when I can drive to Vegas without stopping. Or maybe fly my car there. Talk about crazy town. People cant drive worth a shit as it is now.
TR probably is right about the infrastructure build out feasibility. And Grateful certainly makes excellent points about the realities of driverless cars. I may be wrong about driverless and electric cars. I remember how I thought talking to my computer 20 years ago would eradicate the need to ever type again. As I sit here fat fingering the keyboard. But that was a drop in the bucket compared to this technology. This is going to be a long race. Its just getting started.
We should embrace the coming change. Think about the push to fly to the moon. All the technologies that rippled through the economy because of the forced breakthroughs needed to make it happen. That's right, I drank Tang as a kid. We may not get a true driverless car for 30 years, and the same for electric infrastructure build out. But I'm positive many technological benefits will be garnered from this effort way before then.
And that translates to lots of near term investment opportunities.
Now back to our normal programming: This just in, 8 MPG Pickup trucks are still the best selling vehicles in the U.S.
LHC
NurseTim
01-22-2021, 14:47
The axiom of "as government expands, freedom declines," may not prove true in the near future. Image the amount of leisure time that is increased as labor is impacted, by the advent of AI meeting industrial replication. The cascade of personal choice's open to the individual will demand the freedom to enjoy one's life. Government will have to meet that understanding.
rofl, rofl when have you ever know government to give up control, EVER.
I think we made a huge mistake not adopting hydrogen.
bblhead672
01-22-2021, 16:16
Here’s one: https://aerofarms.com/story/
This is very interesting....wonder what a home setup would cost and if you could grow more than "greens."
LHC, storedot, quatomscape, Lithium, zinc, copper, solid state batteries will solve the power equation.Henry Ford built a product before there were roads that truly suited the automobile.
We are now using tools that were essentially developed, as stated here, for the NASA program: Battery Powered tools changed the hardware industry. Check out a Restore, the charity donation outfit that resells everything, there you will find beautiful hand saws, drills, lathes, all products we knew from our fathers workbench are now collectibles.
The infrastructure for charging stations will develop rapidly once the battery power, recharge and life cycle is solved. Henry Ford must have loved Eisenhower, but it took 60 years to accomplish that end state, with EV solution in sight, the infrastructure is already mapped out.
I think Costco will put a PLUG like power station in every parking slot and make bank, so will every grocers, and possibly every parking meter in every city. Revenue stream will drive gov't to underwrite the work.
Noted By TR, where does the electricity come from to power all the recharging stations? And, the power must be available 24/7.
Gaming that question leads to available space allocation. Solar Panels will be improved, all roof top space, ground, and station will be utilized to collect solar, storage is centralized locally, backed up regionally. For a company like Costco they have a 100000 sq/ft roof that not making them money, plus the ground space they occupy is considerable. If there is to be a green future, NE will have to be accepted.
Old Dog New Trick
01-22-2021, 22:37
Penn, the next thing I expect to hear from you is how good AOC’s pussy tastes! :p
I’d include Thornburg but she’s too young for you. :D
(My apologies to the women here. :o )
I just may not be able to supply that answer. But, O6 cousin is a Professor at Columbia and is one of her advisors. He has mentioned her as possible dinner guest, my thinking was he needed to assess my reaction before extending an invite.
If it happens, I'll post pictures.
Posted in an earlier remark, the impression and presentation of the new deal was poorly executed. Global companies where already in that space. A green future was happening regardless of your political affiliation.
There is a Penny Pot stock I bought in 2018, it has pivoted and is now completely solar. They must have had a WOK moment.
Old Dog New Trick
01-22-2021, 23:10
I jest, but it is clear that the future is more renewable than the past. Serve her whiskey and wine and call her Brandy. :D
Nuclear. Modular nuclear, but the pols will reject it because it would be limited to small areas and less likely to be controlled by Big Government. They really hate that I live totally off grid. They are talking about putting meters on our wells here in AZ. Just to monitor the depletion of the aquafer, don't you know. Right! I'm sure that they are working on how to monitor how much sunlight we "harvest" and tax us on that. too.
Old Dog New Trick
01-22-2021, 23:58
I faced that prospect when I lived in Washington on a private well and septic owned by me. It didn’t come before I sold that property but I doubt they (state government) have given up trying.
It only a matter of time.
GratefulCitizen
01-24-2021, 20:34
There is certainly room for money to be made from early growth of new technologies.
That is not the same thing as displacing well-established technologies.
It may well happen, as coal was displaced by natural gas.
But that took a very long time, and natural gas was a very good substitute for the niche it fills (burned to heat water for steam-driven turbines).
In the case of transportation, it may be a bit more difficult.
There is a reason some sort of fuel oil (diesel, jet fuel, bunker fuel) is preferred in industrial, commercial, and military transportation applications.
There is also the case of mineral/petroleum economics.
When demand dramatically increases for new mineral resources needed, and demand for petroleum decreases, prices adjust and what was once profitable ceases to be even economically viable.
But, there’s a big gap where even a niche market stands to make a great deal of money.
For reference, pages 44-45 (pdf starts on page 36).
https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/sec2.pdf
GratefulCitizen
12-04-2021, 15:25
Gravedigging an old post.
Looked like the best place.
A recent bit of political nonsense regarding electric vehicles got me thinking.
How efficient are they when distribution infrastructure is considered?
To be fair, the distribution of hydrocarbons incurs losses, but they’re difficult to quantify.
Doubtful those losses reach the 65% level found with electricity.
There could be an argument for electric vehicles if electricity was generated primarily from sources other than hydrocarbons.
Meanwhile, it only serves as an argument to support CNG powered vehicles.
Electric vehicles would likely burn even more hydrocarbons (indirectly) than hydrocarbon powered vehicles.
Not very “green”…
See “electrical system energy losses”, and the contribution of natural gas/coal to electricity generation.
https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/flow/css_2019_energy.pdf
The Reaper
12-04-2021, 22:46
I am beginning to see some advantages in a hybrid gas-electric vehicle.
However, by the time you harvest and make batteries out of the lithium, and use hydrocarbons to generate electricity (solar is only available at best 12 hours per day, and wind power reminds me of the early explorers stranded in the doldrums for days at the time), and distribute the power and build an electric vehicle power distribution network (probably could have been done with what was spent on the infrastructure bill) where do you store the excess solar and wind powered energy? I do not see a network of EV infrastructure outside of a few major cities for the foreseeable future. The efficiencies are just not there, yet, and possibly never.
Nothing like handing our enemies our weaknesses to be exploited at critical times of history.
Look for a coordinated attack by the Russians on Ukraine and the Chinese on Taiwan, or both in the very near future. Their cyber ability would render us powerless at the very moment we need power the most. The petroleum reserves in this country will come in as a handy prize for the next occupants and rulers of the US. Our very strengths will become our weaknesses under our current feckless leadership.
Or everything could be just fine. :rolleyes:
Just my .02, YMMV.
TR
A little petrochemical fact: Windmills need lubricants. Automobiles need lubricants, electric or not. A barrel of crude cracks to 47% gasoline, 23% diesel and heating fuel, and 10% jet fuel. Thats 80% before you get to the lubricants. Is their plan just to pump 47%, 70%, or 80% of a barrel of oil into the ocean?
The industry would be more likely to chemically synthesize lubricant and/or chemical precursors from those components.
For what its worth on the EVs, the most practical answer to supply the electricity is nuke. But that still leaves alotta folks screwed during natural disasters. Electricity doesn't travel well in buckets and tanks.
A little petrochemical fact: Windmills need lubricants. Automobiles need lubricants, electric or not. A barrel of crude cracks to 47% gasoline, 23% diesel and heating fuel, and 10% jet fuel. Thats 80% before you get to the lubricants. Is their plan just to pump 47%, 70%, or 80% of a barrel of oil into the ocean?
Just add it to the garbage patch it will float for awhile just like a turd does.
Turd in this case is John Kerry, he has been getting the lube ready for America for a long time now.
GratefulCitizen
12-05-2021, 09:35
Just add it to the garbage patch it will float for awhile just like a turd does.
Turd in this case is John Kerry, he has been getting the lube ready for America for a long time now.
Boyan Slat founded The Ocean Cleanup and is doing something about the garbage patch.
We don’t hear much about it because it doesn’t further the profits of big business nor increase the power of governments.
Ingenuity which undermines established power is the real disruptive technology.
https://youtu.be/tLcnJEMnlTs
Last hard class
05-05-2022, 12:41
I saw this last week and thought it appropriate for this site.
https://news.mit.edu/2022/portable-desalination-drinking-water-0428
Couple other articles of interest lately. All of these, including the above are related. And that's the real disruptive technology.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidrvetter/2022/04/28/scientists-use-ai-to-make-an-enzyme-that-eats-plastic-trash-in-hours-video/
https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/solar-power-cell-perovskite-b2062365.html
https://www.upr.org/utah-news/2022-04-26/u-s-army-to-test-drone-swarm-over-utah-desert#:~:text=During%20an%20international%20exerc ise%2C%20the,the%20army%20has%20ever%20tested.
Lots of advances in battery storage/charging. Think off the grid, not EV. Which is good since China owns all the lithium mines in the world.
And of course any automation that will replace restaurant help. I would invest in Miso if I had the chance. They are the guys doing Flippy, Chippy and now coffee at Panera.
LHC