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The market is crashing and contrary to other times of economic stress, so is gold. Can anyone here speak to this counter intuitive situation?
Surf n Turf
03-18-2020, 11:07
The market is crashing and contrary to other times of economic stress, so is gold. Can anyone here speak to this counter intuitive situation?
Penn,
People are selling gold to cover their margin calls. Remember that some of the gold was acquired at <$1,000, so some sales are still profitable. There are others that MUST come up with “margin call money”, even if the gold sale results in a net loss
.
Also, remember that there are two (2) gold investment streams (paper and bullion), that are measured in the volume of gold movement, and the sale thus far has been almost entirely of paper.
This is why there is almost a counter intuitive movement in gold prices
SnT.
SnT, thank you for the explanation. Always on the lookout for opportunity. it will be interesting to see how far it will pressure gold, soon a point will be reach that it will reverse this current slide. Looking at 3/6mo of destabilization in the markets, unemployment, increased debt, and losses in the current downturn could push gold to unforeseen levels. Not for the risk adverse.
Surf n Turf
03-18-2020, 14:15
Penn,
KITCO Says “Out of Stock” for physical silver. They probably have Eagles and Maple Leafs, etc., they just don’t want to “give away” at these prices, and would go bankrupt in doing so..
Kitco is also “out of stock” on every bit of physical gold from the Perth Mint to the US Mint and the Canadian Mints.
They are BUYING physical silver at <$12, and I would bet they will buy as much as they can, and wait for the turn-around.
SnT
QUOTE.....Silver's future is bleak as a recession could wipe out any industrial demand left for the metal, this according to Peter Hug, global trading director of Kitco Metals.
Monetary policy was not enough to calm investors, Hug noted, as markets reacted negatively to the last Federal Reserve rate cut made last Sunday
That episode really scared the market. It indicated that the Fed pushing on a string here is not going to solve the issue. It's going to require some significant fiscal policy," he said.
Hug said that a recession may now be underway.
"Ignoring the economics of a significant recession - it may be short lived, if we're not already in it – if we ignore the economics of it, silver [is] an industrial metal and there would be virtually no demand for it," he said.
Hug said that the recent price decline in metals is due to traders and investors liquidating their metals to meet margin calls, putting even more pressure on the physical market.
"Because there is no physical metal in the market right now, both the U.S. Mint and the Canadian Mint are on allocation with some products anywhere from four to six weeks out, at a minimu, we're looking at a situation where there isn't enough physical offtake to offset the selling of the ETFs and the futures, because there's no physical product left to buy," he said QUOTE
https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-03-17/Silver-price-beaten-down-but-investors-can-t-find-any-so-what-s-going-on-Peter-Hug-Responds.html
The market is crashing and contrary to other times of economic stress, so is gold. Can anyone here speak to this counter intuitive situation?
Strong dollar, gold dips. Dollar is at records highs...there’s a massive multi trillion dollar short squeeze going on and it’s all coming due in dollars.
Gold is at or near record highs for most currencies.
Golf1echo
03-18-2020, 15:14
Gold was doing well, reaches nearly $1700/oz then right after the stock market bail out it’s gone down. Interesting to watch it over time as ST implies it has it’s own dynamics. Looks like those who regularly ply that market try to work things their way ie often value increases at the margins, weekends, later in the day, etc... Lear has a couple of charts for example, recently it started flat lining the hours they are not open. I’m no expert but trying to learn more about it.
https://www.learcapital.com/news/gold-price-charts/
NYSE to CLOSE on MONDAY, supposedly for the COVID-19, but my thinking is to stop the carnage.
(1VB)compforce
03-18-2020, 16:06
NYSE to CLOSE on MONDAY, supposedly for the COVID-19, but my thinking is to stop the carnage.
Electronic trading will still be open, they are just closing the trading floor.
As far as the gold market, that's my playground. /GC (gold futures) are not for the faint of heart or gamblers. It's a cold-hearted, take no prisoners day trading/short term place without the requirement for the $25k account. I've made both my biggest wins and biggest losses in there. It's also incredibly risky if you don't understand futures inside and out. Oil is similar, but lower volume and more prone to random seeming swings. Often the actual value of gold has no real effect on either market. It's about buying and trading the paper, not the gold or oil for most of the participants. Very rarely will a futures contract get exercised.
I also like some of the leveraged ETF's in the same spaces. NUGT/DUST is my favorite pair.
Surf n Turf
03-18-2020, 19:25
Electronic trading will still be open, they are just closing the trading floor.
As far as the gold market, that's my playground. /GC (gold futures) are not for the faint of heart or gamblers. It's a cold-hearted, take no prisoners day trading/short term place without the requirement for the $25k account. I've made both my biggest wins and biggest losses in there. It's also incredibly risky if you don't understand futures inside and out. Oil is similar, but lower volume and more prone to random seeming swings. Often the actual value of gold has no real effect on either market. It's about buying and trading the paper, not the gold or oil for most of the participants. Very rarely will a futures contract get exercised.
I also like some of the leveraged ETF's in the same spaces.
NUGT/DUST is my favorite pair.
(1VB) compforce
I have been a “GOLD BUG” and a “SILVER BUG” for most of my adult life, but I guess (based on your skillset) I am just a collector, who occasionally sells his collection. I have loaded up on gold / silver and have been successful several times in selling higher than I purchased. In Silver, I still say thank god for the HUNT BOYS, That put 2 kids thru school.thanks to them (BTW I still have some memorial $3.00 Silver that I kept as souvenirs).
You play in a market that would give me a heart attack if the below is common: I have never experienced a 49% loss in anything.
SnT
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 3X Shares (NUGT)
7.28-7.09 (-49.34%)
(1VB)compforce
03-19-2020, 03:34
(1VB) compforce
I have been a “GOLD BUG” and a “SILVER BUG” for most of my adult life, but I guess (based on your skillset) I am just a collector, who occasionally sells his collection. I have loaded up on gold / silver and have been successful several times in selling higher than I purchased. In Silver, I still say thank god for the HUNT BOYS, That put 2 kids thru school.thanks to them (BTW I still have some memorial $3.00 Silver that I kept as souvenirs).
You play in a market that would give me a heart attack if the below is common: I have never experienced a 49% loss in anything.
SnT
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 3X Shares (NUGT)
7.28-7.09 (-49.34%)
SnT,
It's not quite that common, but it was worse than that in overnight trading, getting down to -57%. It works the other way too though. The swings are pretty fast and furious. That said, under normal conditions it might move for as much as a 5% swing. See the charts below.
I play in it literally. I'm not risking large sums. I might get in for 1000 shares, that's about the most I'll trade at a time. Futures, maybe two or three contracts at one time. I don't want to give the impression that I am trading big positions, I'm not.
The first chart shows last 12 you can see how it typically stays pretty stable.
The second chart shows two days ago. That was me buying at 6.68, I closed that position at 14.57. more than a 100% gain
The third chart shows yesterday's drop (yes, that's me buying back in at 8.50 to open the position and I'll buy more this morning when it drops further)
Golf1echo
03-19-2020, 06:26
Compforce what indicators are you looking at anticipating a rise in value?
(1VB)compforce
03-19-2020, 06:45
Compforce what indicators are you looking at anticipating a rise in value?
In which name and for what time period? I have a pretty large set of conditions for all of them under normal circumstances. The specifics depend on how long I am planning to wait. My criteria for a trade that I will hold for less than a day are much higher than the criteria if I plan to wait up to a week, which are higher than ones I will hold for up to two weeks, etc. My futures criteria are higher than my etf criteria due to the risk factors.
NUGT is easy right now. It's never been below 4.20 so my risk at say an $8 position is a max of $6 ($4 minimum plus an additional 50% loss) and cost averaging (DCA) becomes very cheap at that level. The upside to NUGT is that it tends to stay in the $25-$30 range under normal conditions. As long as I am willing to park the money during the crisis, I should have major profits when the etf is rebalanced post panic.
I’m not one for offering many recommendations or often.
The only one I am currently encouraging folks with capitals to deploy in the year ahead to observe and consider is Exxon Mobil (XOM).
They are the biggest multi-national energy outfit based in the free world, with an outstanding income statement(which will decline in the short term) and an even better balance sheet.
If you have a long-term time horizon(10 plus years), it’s looking solid.
But perform your own due diligence, and if you consider it, also consider drip feeding in as it may mean dollar cost averaging lower over time if things go from bad to worse.
I also suspect the major tech companies will benefit, due to the fact they have entrenched and defensible franchises and massive piles of cash to buy everything of value for pennies on the dollar.
But they are also all aggressively valued by most measures.
Surf n Turf
03-21-2020, 10:03
This should have some effect on the precious metals markets, at least in the short term.
If there is NO movement then someone is again rigging gold and silver prices.
SnT
Physical gold squeezed further; Royal Canadian Mint shuts down production for two weeks
(Kitco News) - The physical gold and silver market just became a little tighter in the near-term as one major mint is shutting down operations for the next two weeks.
In a note to clients, the Royal Canadian Mint (RCM) said that because of the spreading coronavirus, starting Friday it is closing its doors for the next two weeks. That means the mint will not be producing its Gold and Silver Maple Leaf bullion coins.
“While the supply of bullion coins is currently limited, we are fulfilling all the orders we can. We are also continuing to fully secure our facilities, operate the refinery and allow for the receipt and withdrawal of available products,” said Alex Reeves, senior manager, public affairs at the Canadian mint in an email to Kitco News.
We are still providing liquidity to refinery and pool customers in the way of large cast bar products,” he added.
After the two week period the RCM said that it plans to resume modified production using a divided workforce approach.
“This will allow us to reduce the risk to our staff and maintain critical services,” the mint said.
The shutdown comes as firms are reporting growing demand for physical metal as investors continue to worry about the impact the global pandemic will have on the world’s economy.
Last week, the U.S. Mint announced that it sold out of American Eagle Silver Eagle bullion coins. It said that demand for silver coins has jumped 300% compared to sales in February.
The Royal Canadian Mint’s Gold Maple Leaf, with a purity of 99.999%, is one of the most popular investment coins in the world. Earlier this month, the RCM announced the production of a 10-kilogram Gold Maple Leaf coin. Only 10 coins were created, and five have been sold already.
https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-03-20/Physical-gold-squeezed-further-Royal-Canadian-Mint-shuts-down-production-for-two-weeks.html
frostfire
03-21-2020, 11:31
I’m not one for offering many recommendations or often.
The only one I am currently encouraging folks with capitals to deploy in the year ahead to observe and consider is Exxon Mobil (XOM).
They are the biggest multi-national energy outfit based in the free world, with an outstanding income statement(which will decline in the short term) and an even better balance sheet.
If you have a long-term time horizon(10 plus years), it’s looking solid.
But perform your own due diligence, and if you consider it, also consider drip feeding in as it may mean dollar cost averaging lower over time if things go from bad to worse.
I also suspect the major tech companies will benefit, due to the fact they have entrenched and defensible franchises and massive piles of cash to buy everything of value for pennies on the dollar.
But they are also all aggressively valued by most measures.
Thanks to Saudi and Ruskie, Xom rds bp oxy have tanked to lowest since the 90’s!!!
I thought putting buy trigger at ‘08 level was a smart move...
Even pharmacy (w drug shortage) got hammered. The market has gone total irrational
W 10 ye horizon, REIT seems solid
Extremely unusual and dynamic situation.
Food (grocery not restaurant) cleaning products, paper products, PPE sellers, ammunition sellers — sales numbers must be off the charts for the entire month of March, at least.
Surf n Turf
03-21-2020, 21:57
What was it that Baron Rothschild is credited with saying ---- Buy when there is blood in the streets…..even if it is your blood.
SnT
Guess who is (or will be) buying . . . the Chinese.
Thanks to Saudi and Ruskie, Xom rds bp oxy have tanked to lowest since the 90’s!!!
I thought putting buy trigger at ‘08 level was a smart move...
Even pharmacy (w drug shortage) got hammered. The market has gone total irrational
W 10 ye horizon, REIT seems solid
Be careful with OXY, there’s a good chance they may be a target of bottom feeders like Chevron after the bad indigestion they are having from the Anadarko acquisition.
Things have certainly started to get nutty.
I reckon we start to see real cash on corporate balance sheets deployed by Xmas.
Guess who is (or will be) buying . . . the Chinese.
I posted this article a couple of days ago on FB as an information point. It's dated 2014 and discusses the Chinese and their thirst for Italian investments. I offered it as a possible reason for the extremely hight Italian virus numbers.
They are sitting on Bazillions from their World manufacturing dominance. You gots to do something with all that cash..
My concern is that swamp critters the World over, will seak political advantage by driving their countries into some stupid draconian isolationist efforts, to retaliate against the Chinese.
:munchin
LA CINA È VICINA
China is buying up Italy, one company at a time
October 13, 2014
https://qz.com/280247/china-is-buying-up-italy-one-company-at-a-time/
This another article that popped today..
Chinese Firms Now Hold Stakes In Over A Dozen European Ports
October 9, 2018, 4:57 AM ET
Heard on Morning Edition
https://www.npr.org/2018/10/09/642587456/chinese-firms-now-hold-stakes-in-over-a-dozen-european-ports
More info on the Italian crisis..
Dated Nov 2019 < pre-virus announcement..
The Chinese ‘guardians‘ of Italy’s coffee culture
“Chinese bars are everywhere, and the cappuccino is in a state of shock.”
So go the translated lyrics of a slightly xenophobic 2013 Italian pop song by the Milanese duo “Il Genio.” It is about Chinese migrants taking over neighborhood cafes in northern and central Italy.
Six years later and, according to an article in the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera earlier this month, 11.5% of bars in Milan are run by first- and second-generation migrants from China.
Italy has one of the highest Chinese populations in Europe, with more than 300,000 officially registered and many more living there illegally.
Around 90% of them come from China’s Zhejiang province.
https://www.inkstonenews.com/society/how-chinese-families-have-become-italian-baristas/article/3039584
Trapper John
03-22-2020, 09:54
So, I have been thinking about this Coronavirus thing and that can be a little scary if not outright dangerous! :eek: But, here are my thoughts:
1. This is a war and it was initiated by China!
2. As a war, I subscribe to the philosophy of Gen. George Patton, i.e. a simple strategy executed with violence and precision is far better to bring an end to the conflict than a complex strategy
3. Therefore, shut-down the U.S. and if necessary invoke Marshal Law.
4. This is necessary to flatten the infection curve. If we don't our healthcare system will collapse!
5. Ramp up testing to ID positives to be quarantined
6. Accelerate approval of hydroxychloroquine and vaccine and other therapeutics development.
7. Pump massive $s into the economy focused on individuals, small businesses, and critical industries
8. Recover, adjust, and develop economic, fiscal, and monetary policies to correct from 2nd and 3rd order effects from#7
9. Look for unanticipated opportunities i.e. quashing Iran & Russia
10. Take back supply chains, dictate and control trade deals
11. Be prepared to use military force to effect #s 9 &10 This is likely to be required and frankly, I view this as an opportunity to put these bad actors in a box once and for all.
12. Develop a simple long-term plan for managing the new world order, i.e play well with others or sit quietly in the corner until you can.:D
Old Dog New Trick
03-22-2020, 10:35
^^^^looks like a good starting point^^^^
Need to re-elect DJT for starters and flush the socialist swamp creatures out of DC.
TJ, Your position assumes you have time, and are prepared to fight a war of attrition, you lose.
You lose, not just because all your med capability has been outsourced, but because the Chinese may possess a vaccine. They own the pathogen, so it should not be discounted. Also, you’ll deal with multi waves of infection, with an ever-mutating pathogen.
On the off chance that the take over is passively aggressive, you are tossed a carrot to keep your energy up to bury the dead.
But, the Chinese, goal is to take possession without conflict. Warfare is costly. Imo, only one logical option exists, which you must assume the Chinese have considered, and it changes everything. You must be willing to engage the nuclear option and mean it. After all, we are dead any way the virus will gut us. Therefore, MAD is the only out.
We are at war in the 21st century, with all its political correctness.
Trapper John
03-23-2020, 06:35
TJ, Your position assumes you have time, and are prepared to fight a war of attrition, you lose.
You lose, not just because all your med capability has been outsourced, but because the Chinese may possess a vaccine. They own the pathogen, so it should not be discounted. Also, you’ll deal with multi waves of infection, with an ever-mutating pathogen.
On the off chance that the take over is passively aggressive, you are tossed a carrot to keep your energy up to bury the dead.
But, the Chinese, goal is to take possession without conflict. Warfare is costly. Imo, only one logical option exists, which you must assume the Chinese have considered, and it changes everything. You must be willing to engage the nuclear option and mean it. After all, we are dead any way the virus will gut us. Therefore, MAD is the only out.
We are at war in the 21st century, with all its political correctness.
You'd be correct if Covid-19 mortality rate was higher. The biggest risk is economic collapse. The competition is between flattening the infection curve before the economic slowdown becomes economic collapse. I'm thinking that economic stimulus can provide a window. The other wild-card is development of a therapeutic countermeasure in the short term, not a vaccine. I think that is likely too.
In my scenario we don't need a nuclear option unless or until China pushes that button.
And a second point: I don't think this will be a war of attrition, at least not from our end. This will be an economic war and China just doesn't have the ability to adapt or recover quickly. The risk will be that we push them to the breaking point and they elect a kinetic response. We saw this 75 years ago with Japan.
At the simplest level this will become a war of Capitalism/Entrpreneurialism vs Socialism/central economic planning.
Trapper John
03-23-2020, 11:35
https://pages-pb.jpmorgan.com/index.php/email/emailWebview
Thought this would be of interest to yous guys!
Old Dog New Trick
03-23-2020, 11:42
I know there are other threads for this but -
Baghdad Bob Schumer and Queen of the Libs Nancy P., are really getting my blood pressure high. Anyone else seeing the BS they are supporting to get included in this stimulus package before congress? They want the green new deal, unrestricted bargaining power for unions along with lifetime unemployment pay.
Anyone that believes all the hysteria about the true nature of what’s really going on here smoked the tea leaves and forgot to read them first. Is the virus deadly yes, yes it is, like many times before many people will die from it and many more infected will recover but this time like before (circa 1976 Swine Flu) it has been politicized for a power grab and redistribution of wealth.
Old Dog New Trick
03-23-2020, 11:44
https://pages-pb.jpmorgan.com/index.php/email/emailWebview
Thought this would be of interest to yous guys!
Can’t open
https://pages-pb.jpmorgan.com/index.php/email/emailWebview
Thought this would be of interest to yous guys!
TJ,, Link is some sort of email sub-system? Doesn't load..
Trapper John
03-23-2020, 13:55
Sorry! JP Morgan sent this to me and apparently I can't share it
Old Dog New Trick
03-23-2020, 14:04
Sorry! JP Morgan sent this to me and apparently I can't share it
Happy or sad?
I’ve lost a third of my retirement portfolio in the last three weeks and can’t afford to take what’s left out. Either all gone or all in for the recovery. Less than three years to forced retirement.
I’m pretty well diversified but damn!
Happy or sad?
I’ve lost a third of my retirement portfolio in the last three weeks and can’t afford to take what’s left out. Either all gone or all in for the recovery. Less than three years to forced retirement.
I’m pretty well diversified but damn!
I am down 10% since this all started, earlier today I had actually got a little of it back. When it took the last big dump I called my financial guy to see about getting my money in a less volatile risk. He stated if that was what I wanted to do then he did not want me as a client. I kind of looked at as when is enough enough I was happy with the total I had. He calmed me down and explained how it would ll come back and he was right. Prior to the latest calamity I had drawn an allowance for 3.5 years and was still up 60k. I have been able to stash the bulk of my retirement earnings so if this does not continue for too long I am sure I will be ok. I certainly wish everyone the best.
Trapper John
03-23-2020, 16:26
Happy or sad?
I’ve lost a third of my retirement portfolio in the last three weeks and can’t afford to take what’s left out. Either all gone or all in for the recovery. Less than three years to forced retirement.
I’m pretty well diversified but damn!
Congress critters are going to get their shiite together., the Fed is acting. Medical therapeutic interventions are around the corner. The infection curve may be flattening. America will be back in business shortly. The economy will come roaring back. Your losses will be temporary, so hold on and hang in there Brother!
Airbornelawyer
03-23-2020, 16:27
I am down 10% since this all started, earlier today I had actually got a little of it back. When it took the last big dump I called my financial guy to see about getting my money in a less volatile risk. He stated if that was what I wanted to do then he did not want me as a client. I kind of looked at as when is enough enough I was happy with the total I had. He calmed me down and explained how it would ll come back and he was right. Prior to the latest calamity I had drawn an allowance for 3.5 years and was still up 60k. I have been able to stash the bulk of my retirement earnings so if this does not continue for too long I am sure I will be ok. I certainly wish everyone the best.
My only regret is I do not have any cash handy to start buying when I feel the time is right. I do have clients to advise buying for, but I am still waiting for the right entry point.
In 2009, I did have cash, and did well, but frankly anyone could have made money given the way the Fed was goosing the market. There are some investments I would avoid this time around, no matter how good an opportunity they might seem, though. Among these are companies most at risk of bankruptcy and needing a government bailout, since the terms of the bankruptcy/bailout will likely eliminate equity holders interests (see the GM bailout of 2008/09). Cruise lines and maybe airlines would be a high risk gamble, and the longer this "social distancing" persists, other businesses dependent on bringing in customers, like restaurant chains and casinos, would also be at increasing risk.
Last hard class
03-23-2020, 21:20
The market: Cause & Effect and the psychology of fear
Our President has just learned the same hard lesson every President in my lifetime has learned. They don't control the stock market. To some extent the market losses are a referendum on the Admin's response to this pandemic. I personally believe the country is more important than the 2% we are trying to save. That being said, I find the reactions to date to be perfectly normal.
Because there hasn't been a plan.
I don't want to mince words here. IMO The president didn't just stumble out of the gate, his flopper got caught in his zipper while starting to go. I don't believe for a second that we had to destroy the economy the way we have.
Now:
This week our leader got his act together. And the VP looked absolutely presidential. I can see the beginnings of a plan taking shape. From there we will be able to see past the dire numbers. This is very good news because very soon people are going to be more scared about their economic future than the future of their health.
Regarding equities:
If you are down then you rise with the boat. If you have some side money to gamble I would suggest its time to start your homework on individual stocks. That doesn't imply the market won't drop another 5000 points. Just that I am comfortable that it will rise to at least this level (20) fairly quickly. Getting back to (29) may require more patience. Depends on the stimulus. Until now, Trump has measured the size of his political johnson by the Dow Jones number. So there's that. There is still a huge question of liquidity to be answered. So pick your horses carefully, not all of them will finish the race. One place I would start is with insider buying trends.
Remember this, the market is forward looking. If you wait until it sees the plan, you may well have missed some of the best buying opportunities since 2008.
LHC
One thing I haven't seen mentioned anywhere (but I'm in my bunker so there's that) is that DJT enterprises has taken a BIG hit, too. One thing that I'd like to see him (his proxies) do is offer one or more of his hotels as emergency bed space if needed in NYC. Take the lead on the other side of the problem and show the way.
One thing I haven't seen mentioned anywhere (but I'm in my bunker so there's that) is that DJT enterprises has taken a BIG hit, too. One thing that I'd like to see him (his proxies) do is offer one or more of his hotels as emergency bed space if needed in NYC. Take the lead on the other side of the problem and show the way.
I like the idea, but think that retrofitting hotel air handler systems would be prohibitive. Add carpet removal, retro food services, and the need for ICU level areas.
https://www.ashrae.org/file%20library/technical%20resources/covid-19/i-p_a19_ch09_health_care_facilities.pdf
I would like to see the military set up MASH units wherever needed. I'm sure the ones we had in Nam with 50yrs of upgrades are a lot easier to establish.
A couple of pictures of the 45th and 24th EVAC. The 45th was a MASH and consisted of a series of blow-up huts.
“Are you a surgeon?” He replies, “No, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.”
1stindoor
03-24-2020, 06:14
I'm trying to stick to the belief that it's all imaginary money until I sell or start taking it out. I'm only 55 so I have a close to 5 years before I'll seriously think about withdrawing from my TSP. I stopped looking at it last week. I firmly believe it will bounce back before I need it.
I'm trying to stick to the belief that it's all imaginary money until I sell or start taking it out. I'm only 55 so I have a close to 5 years before I'll seriously think about withdrawing from my TSP. I stopped looking at it last week. I firmly believe it will bounce back before I need it.
Bounce UP and DOWN
I retired in 97, so this dip is my 4th?? Most take 4-5 yrs to recover and if you are a good picker, maybe quicker.
After the 08 dip, I decided to let Schwab do the picking and my handler does a good job. Not as radical as I was, but much safer.
Currently down 26%, it's better than most, I just try to be calm.
Trapper John
03-24-2020, 08:59
My advisor contacts at JP Morgan and Goldman are saying that there is ~$2T between them ready to be deployed in strategic buying. Combine that with the Fed's capital injection and what appears to be congressional relief (finally) it looks like everything is coming together to super-charge the economy one we are open for business again ~2 more weeks IMO.
POTUS stumbled out of the gate (no surprise all things considered) but he has put together an excellent team of advisors and was able to get in front of the Covid-19 pandemic before our healthcare system was overwhelmed and collapsed. That was the first hurdle that could have plunged us into depression if not navigated properly.
We probably have another 2 weeks of this before we have passed the peak.
POTUS is turning his attention to economic recovery where he excels IMO
Look for actions on trade and reclaiming supply chains. This is a real opportunity to solidify American global economic dominance. Everything else flows from there. I don't think this opportunity will be lost on POTUS,
We probably have another 2 weeks of this before we have passed the peak.
POTUS is turning his attention to economic recovery where he excels IMO
Agree - two weeks and we are out of the tunnel and into daylight.
Everywhere the virus trends will be down except the large hives of humanity.
Containment will shift to wack a mole as outcrops break out here and there.
Old Dog New Trick
03-24-2020, 09:33
I don’t know about the specific materials used but a good entrepreneur in the cotton belt or rust belt would do well to find a building and workforce and begin making all sorts of PPE with a “Made In The USA” tag. And I don’t just mean in the short time...
BTW, I’ll be fine, my 401k with work was just a slice of my retirement benefits and as long as I live cash payments will rule.
Old Dog New Trick
03-24-2020, 09:38
Agree - two weeks and we are out of the tunnel and into daylight.
Everywhere the virus trends will be down except the large hives of humanity.
Containment will shift to wack a mole as outcrops break out here and there.
Testing and education will be key!
Even if a treatment is found with high percentage of success this disease will continue to wreak havoc on pulmonary compromised patients and the elderly for quite some time.
1stindoor
03-24-2020, 10:09
BTW, I’ll be fine, my 401k with work was just a slice of my retirement benefits and as long as I live cash payments will rule.
Same here, my TSP is only a very small slice. I have my mil retirement, VA, and current gub'ment job (that has a retirement plan).
I like the idea, but think that retrofitting hotel air handler systems would be prohibitive. Add carpet removal, retro food services, and the need for ICU level areas.
It's already in the works:
https://twitter.com/USArmy/status/1241440439380488194
It's already in the works:
https://twitter.com/USArmy/status/1241440439380488194
Thanks
frostfire
03-24-2020, 12:49
My advisor contacts at JP Morgan
This free fall market has turned me into a trader!
Lost 1/3 too. So I now nibble and let go with the swing.
JP Morgan was really awful when I was still paying my house mortgage. So I'm glad I made money trading in and out of JPM!
Did the same with UAL, DIS, and DAL
REIT has fallen 80%+, so if you see people flocking movie theatre, parks, and malls again in 6+ months, then that's the place to park your money!
I’m up, big time. Sold all equities, except Abbott/Abbvie for sentimental reasons, days before the peak, shorted the S&P, now I’m 70% out again. I expect at least one more big leg down, where I’ll cover the balance. Then I’ll go 50% back in on a list I’ve got. That's when I’ll lose my gains. :)
There’ll be multiple peaks for this disease with geographic locales out of synchrony. The true peak in each area will be hard to determine with several 'false dawns.' See, for example, Italy, with two days of flattening giving hope for a peak and then yesterday the deaths roar back. Wham.
The influenza 'peak week' gets bet on by ICU staff and epidemiologist just like March Madness used to be. Even with all our experience with the flu, it's always a backwards looking determination.
New York is on track for a higher and earlier peak than initially forecast. Bad juju, even with Cuomo's brilliant reaction. Because people who live near oceans are the only ones who really matter to the press, the volume of screeching from cable news will be deafening when we near peak deaths. That’s when I’ll probably cover my last position. If the markets are open.
There should be national triage guidelines. I’m not saying to stop efforts to increase beds and vents, just recognize in many places the HC system will be badly overwhelmed. Italy (>65 years) and now Spain (>60 years) are taking older patients off of vents and replacing them with younger patients. France is next.
Face facts and establish a national policy.
And if we can’t get PPE to HCWers, shut it down. No more covid admits. Stay home and die in place, even if you’re a Kardashian or play basketball. They’ll scuttle around with their money and their privilege looking for a bed, but that’s unavoidable. Hopefully they’ll be turned away.
What's the point in gutting the HC system and losing costly medical assets?
I’m not naive, I expect none of this to come about.
.... No more covid admits. Stay home and die in place, even if you’re a Kardashian or play basketball. They’ll scuttle around with their money and their privilege looking for a bed, but that’s unavoidable. Hopefully they’ll be turned away. ...
I'm sure all the "right" people already have their prescription for and have picked up their malaria drug of choice.
Was walking through the living room a couple of nights ago and the wife had ET on. Some actor was saying he was almost dead and started taking the drug and it was great - he was cured. I was counting back on my fingers and he must have been taking it about 4 days before Trump talked about it.
So it's been used a lot more than it's been talked about.
Old Dog New Trick
03-24-2020, 14:18
Mugwump, great to see you posting...you must have found some time. Hope you are well and hanging in there.
I disagree that there should be a ‘National triage,’ guidance maybe from one of the letter agencies CDC/NAIH/HHS but, I think triage should be at the lowest local level that fits within what the local level can sustain. Each place will have different needs and those needs will change over time.
The National level should be fully involved in supporting the state and local governments. When peaks and waves blow through one area the national level should be there to reposition, clean, and reissue resources that are needed elsewhere.
No one I ever knew wants the government to come in and tell you what to do. It causes chaos and duplication.
ETA: It’s going to be important to get ahead of the next local outbreak. If that’s random testing or early recognition and testing the government should remain laser focused to support the local medical community to keep it contained and not travel again. Especially as mass transit gets up and running again.
No one I ever knew wants the government to come in and tell you what to do. It causes chaos and duplication.
I’m sure you’re right. I have zero experience or practical knowledge. But watching the Chinese/Italian/Spanish docs on video...they’re crushed flat and need some emotional backstopping or there are going to be a lot of drink/drug/suicides after this is all over. They shouldn’t have to pick winners and losers.
Yeah I’m pretty much done with my little role in all of this, at least for now. You know those girls wearing hoodies on the sidelines at college football games? The ones who squirt Gatorade in the mouths of the players who don’t have time to remove their helmets? I’m that girl lol. Minor role in the grand scheme of things.
Best of luck to you and yours, Dog.
Ret10Echo
03-24-2020, 15:49
I disagree that there should be a ‘National triage,’ guidance maybe from one of the letter agencies CDC/NAIH/HHS but, I think triage should be at the lowest local level that fits within what the local level can sustain. Each place will have different needs and those needs will change over time.
The National level should be fully involved in supporting the state and local governments. When peaks and waves blow through one area the national level should be there to reposition, clean, and reissue resources that are needed elsewhere.
No one I ever knew wants the government to come in and tell you what to do. It causes chaos and duplication.
There have been requests by states for just such direction and risk-transfer. I believe that the Feds are resisting for very much the same reason. There are going to be a myriad of Congressional Investigations after all this is said and done where the 'do-nothings" will call into question the actions of those that took charge and met the threat.
Brace for impact.
Old Dog New Trick
03-24-2020, 15:53
There have been requests by states for just such direction and risk-transfer. I believe that the Feds are resisting for very much the same reason. There are going to be a myriad of Congressional Investigations after all this is said and done where the 'do-nothings" will call into question the actions of those that took charge and met the threat.
Brace for impact.
Yep!
It’s always the fifth wave now. Isn’t it? (The blame someone else wave not find lessons learned and adopt new SOPs) I don’t know how many times I’ve heard the words “911 Commission like level investigation” and we haven’t even gotten through the first month.
Old Dog New Trick
03-24-2020, 17:48
Does anyone who’s watched Gov Cuomo, give his press briefing update today find it strange that he’s complaining about not having enough (anything) while sitting in front of stacks and stacks of medical supplies?
It would be better if in the time he started the press briefing and when he finished the press briefing all those items were wheeled or carried off to delivery vehicles going out to the facilities that need them.
I don’t know, seemed like a bad backdrop for saying you don’t have these things.
5thgrp"C"
03-24-2020, 18:04
Does anyone who’s watched Gov Cuomo, give his press briefing update today find it strange that he’s complaining about not having enough (anything) while sitting in front of stacks and stacks of medical supplies?
It would be better if in the time he started the press briefing and when he finished the press briefing all those items were wheeled or carried off to delivery vehicles going out to the facilities that need them.
I don’t know, seemed like a bad backdrop for saying you don’t have these things.
I think he let the media's coverage of him to get to his head. He's had a couple briefings where he blames his inability on the feds.
cat in the hat
03-24-2020, 22:22
I think he let the media's coverage of him to get to his head. He's had a couple briefings where he blames his inability on the feds.
I find it telling that he claims to need 30k respirators like nobody else does or will.
He is the government equivalent of a guy with a shopping cart full of toilet paper claiming that he's the only one about to have diarrhea.
Does anyone who’s watched Gov Cuomo, give his press briefing update today find it strange that he’s complaining about not having enough (anything) while sitting in front of stacks and stacks of medical supplies?
It would be better if in the time he started the press briefing and when he finished the press briefing all those items were wheeled or carried off to delivery vehicles going out to the facilities that need them.
I don’t know, seemed like a bad backdrop for saying you don’t have these things.
Considering that Gov Cuomo was on Hannity Radio last Thursday or Friday praising President Trump, Yes I am surprised. But since he is a politician I am not really surprised.
Ret10Echo
03-25-2020, 07:41
Does anyone who’s watched Gov Cuomo, give his press briefing update today find it strange that he’s complaining about not having enough (anything) while sitting in front of stacks and stacks of medical supplies?
It would be better if in the time he started the press briefing and when he finished the press briefing all those items were wheeled or carried off to delivery vehicles going out to the facilities that need them.
I don’t know, seemed like a bad backdrop for saying you don’t have these things.
States (and levels below) are fighting each other for limited supplies.
NYC is a shitshow folks... They've got issues.
Trapper John
03-25-2020, 11:16
I find it telling that he claims to need 30k respirators like nobody else does or will.
He is the government equivalent of a guy with a shopping cart full of toilet paper claiming that he's the only one about to have diarrhea.
:lifter You hit the nail on the head! Nobody needs 30k respirators! Not even remotely possible. Hyperbole reigns! :eek:
Does anyone who’s watched Gov Cuomo, give his press briefing update today find it strange that he’s complaining about not having enough (anything) while sitting in front of stacks and stacks of medical supplies?
It would be better if in the time he started the press briefing and when he finished the press briefing all those items were wheeled or carried off to delivery vehicles going out to the facilities that need them.
I don’t know, seemed like a bad backdrop for saying you don’t have these things.
Remember that Puerto Rico mayor complaining about not getting any help from the gov after Hurricane Maria?
I wonder what message Cuomo and whoever that lady was were trying to project?
Old Dog New Trick
03-25-2020, 12:37
Good morning all. Hope it’s a brand new day!
Now with all the happy salutations out of the way...how did these hospitals, states and others who use this equipment get to where they only had about a 10-20 day supply of PPE or less?
We now know what happened at FEMA, someone either failed to reorder after the last national epidemic (H1N1) or was told not to. That was eleven years ago!
Since that stuff has a shelf life of more than ten years or forever I don’t see why it’s in such short supply.
Failure of the five “P”s
I can’t tell you that stocks of N95 masks, gloves and other PPE allocated for front line federal first responders, screeners at TSA and other federal agencies have been collected up across the country and sent out to communities in need leaving all the aforementioned personnel and agencies who actually take training every year to properly use these items unable to now protect themselves! It’s a complete sh!t show at work! God help us if we are providing these necessary life saving items to those on the street who have no prior knowledge or proper use of them while exposing our bravest to the same infectious disease with a duty to respond or requirement to report to work in a close contact occupation.
Guess this is the best place to put this.
Folks were probably wondering what was up with the D attempt to put a Post Office bail out in the emergency bill.
Appears the PO might go belly up this summer without it. Now I've been hearing for a number of years that the PO was in trouble and needed to do something - but politicians have been saying "Nothing to worry about. The PO's finances are fine."
Read through the story and count the lack of facts and number of emotional triggers.
‘Postal Service will not survive the summer.’ Lawmakers warn it could go bankrupt
Read more here: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241470831.html#storylink=cpy
The US has the Strategic National Stockpile:
https://www.phe.gov/about/sns/Pages/default.aspx
Hopefully they had good inventory levels.
——-
As far as the US Post Office goes, I wonder if they might have an opportunity to get in better financial shape, rather than worse?
Let me explain.
Probably(definitely?) the biggest loss category for USPS is delivering international shipments(cheap cr@p from China), at USPS cost, within US borders.
Decades ago when US balance of trade was more export focused, USPS benefitted from this by having the tailwind of receiving payment for shipments, but not having the cost of OCONUS delivery once it reached a destination country’s borders.
Now with balance of trade more import focused, USPS is burdened with the cost of delivery for items it hasn’t been paid to deliver.
It’s not Amazon(they pay big bills via contract to USPS0, it’s China(and others).
So maybe if imports from China decline, USPS finances may improve?
This is an interesting story about world food.
Think hording on a grand scale and who exports and who imports.
Before clicking on the link, reading the story and viewing the world map - picture in your mind who you think imports and who exports.
OK, read the story.
"Countries are starting to hoard food, threatening global trade"
https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/markets/countries-are-starting-to-hoard-food-threatening-global-trade/ar-BB11EY3M
"It’s not just grocery shoppers who are hoarding pantry staples. Some governments are moving to secure domestic food supplies during the conoravirus pandemic...."
Were you right?
This is an interesting story about world food.
Think hording on a grand scale and who exports and who imports.
Before clicking on the link, reading the story and viewing the world map - picture in your mind who you think imports and who exports.
OK, read the story.
"Countries are starting to hoard food, threatening global trade"
https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/markets/countries-are-starting-to-hoard-food-threatening-global-trade/ar-BB11EY3M
"It’s not just grocery shoppers who are hoarding pantry staples. Some governments are moving to secure domestic food supplies during the conoravirus pandemic...."
Were you right?
It's as if the whole world has gone nuts.
Last hard class
03-25-2020, 16:59
I’m up, big time.
Congrats! I want to personally thank you for all of the early informative posts. I used them when considering my own financial strategy.
USPS:
UPS and FEDEX are going to receive bailouts. Why not the postal service?
Debt:
I have been saying for years that debt kills. Individuals, companies and governments. A lot of Small companies don't realize that their larger competitors see this meltdown as an opportunity to crush their underfunded rivals. I hope people in NY city like chain food restaurants.
NY Gov:
He seems to be running for president. But I did catch two interesting points. First politician I heard talk about antibodies after someone has recovered. If that is true then there is the path to reopening the economy. We need to develop and produce in large quantities both an antibody test and a virus test that cuts out the labs. You come to work. You have any symptoms you go home until you test neg on the virus. If you have the antibodies above a certain level you get the proceed to the bar, do not pass go card.
Second point was about sharing the ventilators with other states. Seems tricky but still an interesting concept.
LHC
Congrats! I want to personally thank you for all of the early informative posts. I used them when considering my own financial strategy.
LHC
Jeez don’t do that again lol! I’m like 1 for 3 with this stuff. I’m giving away PPE I collected during the H5N1 days. I am happy to have the Mountain House though.
Still scared witless about H5N1, actually
Badger52
03-26-2020, 05:49
Folks were probably wondering what was up with the D attempt to put a Post Office bail out in the emergency bill.
Saw that too; was not surprised although that amount would not do it. For many years I've read they're unable to even make their interest payments. The repeated forgiveness of that (forget the actual debt) seems to be SOP at this point.
1stindoor
03-26-2020, 06:01
This is an interesting story about world food.
Think hording on a grand scale and who exports and who imports.
Were you right?
I was more "right" than wrong. Thanks for the link.
Congrats! I want to personally thank you for all of the early informative posts. I used them when considering my own financial strategy.
USPS:
UPS and FEDEX are going to receive bailouts. Why not the postal service?
Debt:
I have been saying for years that debt kills. Individuals, companies and governments. A lot of Small companies don't realize that their larger competitors see this meltdown as an opportunity to crush their underfunded rivals. I hope people in NY city like chain food restaurants.
NY Gov:
He seems to be running for president. But I did catch two interesting points. First politician I heard talk about antibodies after someone has recovered. If that is true then there is the path to reopening the economy. We need to develop and produce in large quantities both an antibody test and a virus test that cuts out the labs. You come to work. You have any symptoms you go home until you test neg on the virus. If you have the antibodies above a certain level you get the proceed to the bar, do not pass go card.
Second point was about sharing the ventilators with other states. Seems tricky but still an interesting concept.
LHC
Antibodies show who was sick, and recovered, more that currently active cases.
What we need is an antigen test that indicates who has virus or virus components in their system. That works more like a pregnancy test where you get a blue dot if you’re positive after 2-45 minutes.
Can’t remember who, but a Cali biotech has gotten approval for their antigen test. If they can ramp up it could be a game changer.
80% of the chinese tests donated by Ma to Prague have proven to be crap. The Czech's aren’t dummies and compared the Chinese test to their own known-good test in patients with known status. The Chinese test is crap. Or maybe just the donated tests are crap.
Badger52
03-26-2020, 08:37
80% of the chinese tests donated by Ma to Prague have proven to be crap. The Czech's aren’t dummies and compared the Chinese test to their own known-good test in patients with known status. The Chinese test is crap. Or maybe just the donated tests are crap.Not surprised to hear such a thing. And apparently the tests weren't gifted. (https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3903937) Over half million bucks paid to the Chicoms from a couple of CZ gov't ministries. And China gets a PR spin around the block.
Privately owned :mad:
Coronavirus: Government orders 10,000 ventilators from Dyson
By Simon Jack Business editor
The government has ordered 10,000 ventilators from Dyson to help deal with the coronavirus crisis.
The firm, headed by British inventor Sir James Dyson, said it had designed a new type of ventilator in response to a call on behalf of the NHS.
The order is still subject to the devices passing stringent medical tests but that is expected to happen quickly.
Dyson has had hundreds of engineers working round the clock to design the ventilators from scratch.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52043767
About Dyson:
Dyson is a global technology company. It transforms every category it enters with radical and iconic reinventions that work, perform and look very different. Dyson currently has four main areas of technology. Floorcare (corded vacuum cleaners and cord-free vacuum cleaners), Environmental Control (fans, heaters, purifiers, humidifiers), personal care (Supersonic™ hair dryer), and Dyson Professional (Jake Dyson lighting and Airblade™ hand dryers). Dyson machines are sold in more than 75 countries, and it invests £5m ($6.6m) per week in R&D. It employs close to 7,000 people worldwide, 3,000 of whom are engineers Dyson was founded by James Dyson in 1993 and is based in Malmesbury, Wiltshire, in the UK.
link: Dyson Air Purifier Products (https://www.dyson.com/air-treatment/purifiers.html)
Privately owned :mad:
As I recall, Dyson closed all manufacturing in Britain and moved it to guess where about 18 mos ago.
GratefulCitizen
03-26-2020, 10:45
Trucking tonnage is very closely correlated with GDP.
Anecdotal observations on trucking volume through Arizona's main UPS hub:
Spoke with a few other drivers from other areas of the state.
They say volume has increased significantly.
I only have first hand knowledge of northern Arizona stuff.
Flagstaff outbound volume has seen a massive increase, mainly due to online orders of pet food from the local factory.
Inbound volume (in terms of literal trailer volume) for Flagstaff has dropped, but package and delivery stop count is still high.
This probably due to the combination of decreased business volume (large package), increased residential volume (small package), and a partially missing population of 20-30k students from NAU.
Far north region has seen a similar effect.
(Decreased business, increased residential).
Dispatch is too busy Monday-Thursday to ask detailed questions about volume in the UPS system.
I'll try to dig up some information on Friday night to find out the general volume trend.
Again, trucking tonnage is closely correlated with GDP.
As I recall, Dyson closed all manufacturing in Britain and moved it to guess where about 18 mos ago.
That may change..
It hopes to build the ventilators at scale from its UK base in Wiltshire - using aircraft hangars that were used to stuff parachutes in the World War Two.
Airbornelawyer
03-26-2020, 15:33
As far as the US Post Office goes, I wonder if they might have an opportunity to get in better financial shape, rather than worse?
Let me explain.
Probably(definitely?) the biggest loss category for USPS is delivering international shipments(cheap cr@p from China), at USPS cost, within US borders.
Decades ago when US balance of trade was more export focused, USPS benefitted from this by having the tailwind of receiving payment for shipments, but not having the cost of OCONUS delivery once it reached a destination country’s borders.
Now with balance of trade more import focused, USPS is burdened with the cost of delivery for items it hasn’t been paid to deliver.
It’s not Amazon(they pay big bills via contract to USPS0, it’s China(and others).
So maybe if imports from China decline, USPS finances may improve?
The single biggest liability on the books of the USPS is about $47.2 billion in liability to the Postal Service Retiree Health Benefits Fund. That line item alone dwarfs the USPS's total assets of $25.6 billion, and does not include other retirement benefit obligations of $8.4 billion, and $18.5 billion in workers' compensation benefits. About the only way coronavirus would help the USPS's financial position is if it kills most of the service's 600,000 retirees and survivors receiving benefits.
https://about.usps.com/what/financials/10k-reports/fy2019.pdf
Badger52
03-26-2020, 15:45
The single biggest liability on the books of the USPS is about $47.2 billion in liability to the Postal Service Retiree Health Benefits Fund. That line item alone dwarfs the USPS's total assets of $25.6 billion, and does not include other retirement benefit obligations of $8.4 billion, and $18.5 billion in workers' compensation benefits. About the only way coronavirus would help the USPS's financial position is if it kills most of the service's 600,000 retirees and survivors receiving benefits.
https://about.usps.com/what/financials/10k-reports/fy2019.pdfYup, my findings over time as well. And THAT is why they can't even pay interest on their debt. Kinda sounds like Chicago.
WarriorDiplomat
03-26-2020, 20:29
Trucking tonnage is very closely correlated with GDP.
Anecdotal observations on trucking volume through Arizona's main UPS hub:
Spoke with a few other drivers from other areas of the state.
They say volume has increased significantly.
I only have first hand knowledge of northern Arizona stuff.
Flagstaff outbound volume has seen a massive increase, mainly due to online orders of pet food from the local factory.
Inbound volume (in terms of literal trailer volume) for Flagstaff has dropped, but package and delivery stop count is still high.
This probably due to the combination of decreased business volume (large package), increased residential volume (small package), and a partially missing population of 20-30k students from NAU.
Far north region has seen a similar effect.
(Decreased business, increased residential).
Dispatch is too busy Monday-Thursday to ask detailed questions about volume in the UPS system.
I'll try to dig up some information on Friday night to find out the general volume trend.
Again, trucking tonnage is closely correlated with GDP.
Here in Colorado Springs and Denver Freight Inbound/Outbound) has picked up significantly (I work for Reddaway)
The single biggest liability on the books of the USPS is about $47.2 billion in liability to the Postal Service Retiree Health Benefits Fund. That line item alone dwarfs the USPS's total assets of $25.6 billion, and does not include other retirement benefit obligations of $8.4 billion, and $18.5 billion in workers' compensation benefits. About the only way coronavirus would help the USPS's financial position is if it kills most of the service's 600,000 retirees and survivors receiving benefits.
https://about.usps.com/what/financials/10k-reports/fy2019.pdf
Cheers for that.
Those are.....staggering....liability numbers.
Trucking tonnage is very closely correlated with GDP.
[your post]
Again, trucking tonnage is closely correlated with GDP.
Good point.
It will be interesting to see how volume tracks into summer.
Last hard class
04-02-2020, 10:21
6.6m new unemployment claims.
Like the time my daughter drove her car without oil. The engine just froze up.
Good times.
LHC
Golf1echo
04-02-2020, 10:34
Insight into what many of the WNC communities are experiencing, many have an economy of 2nd, 3rd and 4th homes. Last week in this community a visitor from ATL came with corona 19 to convalesce in one of the country clubs... seems to have generated some ire in the local community.
http://www.highlandsinfo.com/PDFs/20april2.pdf
GratefulCitizen
04-02-2020, 10:40
Shipping in the UPS system appears to be slowing down.
Layoffs among the feeder drivers are already starting in the Midwest and east.
The literal volume (number of trailers) is dropping, but packages and delivery stops haven't dropped too much yet.
This is due to the increase in small package residential deliveries.
Last couple weeks, I-17 had plenty of rigs rolling, and the rest stops were packed.
Seeing fewer rigs on the highway, and the rest stops have fewer rigs than I've seen in the last two years.
Total truck tonnage looks like it's falling off a cliff.
This is good
I like :lifter
Medtronic Gives Away Ventilator Design Specs In Coronavirus Fight, Ahead Of Tesla Alliance, Alan Ohnsman, Forbes Staff
(Updates with Musk’s offer to donate additional ventilators.)
Medtronic is sharing design specifications for a basic ventilator model with any company that wants to help produce them for hospitals racing to treat coronavirus patients as the medical device maker discusses a manufacturing partnership with Elon Musk’s Tesla. Separately, Musk said he’s donating an unspecified number of ventilators to hospitals in need of them.
The Dublin-based company on Monday posted specs for its PB 560 ventilator “to enable participants across industries to evaluate options for rapid ventilator manufacturing to help doctors and patients dealing with COVID-19.” Software and other information for the compact model, on the market since 2010 and sold in 35 countries, will also be added for download soon, the company said.
“Medtronic recognizes the acute need for ventilators as lifesaving devices in the management of COVID-19 infections. We know this global crisis needs a global response,” Executive Vice President Bob White said in a statement. “By openly sharing the PB 560 design information, we hope to increase global production of ventilator solutions for the fight against COVID-19.”
The move comes ahead of formal plans to make ventilators with Tesla that Musk tweeted about this month. Last week Musk donated more than 1,200 ventilators to Los Angeles hospitals, and on Tuesday he tweeted that Tesla has “extra FDA-approved ventilators. Will ship to hospitals worldwide within Tesla delivery regions. Device & shipping cost are free. Only requirement is that the vents are needed immediately for patients, not stored in a warehouse. Please [let] me or @Tesla know.” He provided no details on how many of the devices Tesla has or where they came from.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2020/03/30/medtronic-gives-away-ventilator-design-specs-in-coronavirus-fight-ahead-of-tesla-alliance/#1e185ecc4591.
Badger52
04-02-2020, 13:54
Total truck tonnage looks like it's falling off a cliff.Appreciating your updates in this arena, both UPS and general OTR. UPS in my area are heroes.
We still have 4 trucks tailgaiting at night in the big hardware store parking lot, move boxes around and at least a couple continue into the night delivering residential. But I looked at our regular guy the other day on the porch to say thanks and he looked pretty haggard.
Insight into what many of the WNC communities are experiencing, many have an economy of 2nd, 3rd and 4th homes. Last week in this community a visitor from ATL came with corona 19 to convalesce in one of the country clubs... seems to have generated some ire in the local community.
http://www.highlandsinfo.com/PDFs/20april2.pdf
Highlands is a little jewel - discovered it on recommendation from a mentor 30 years ago. It used to be a very quiet little summer town. Was just there in early February and it was busy then.
Golf1echo
04-02-2020, 16:44
Highlands is a little jewel - discovered it on recommendation from a mentor 30 years ago. It used to be a very quiet little summer town. Was just there in early February and it was busy then.
Roger That... “Deliverance” could only hold them back for so long and bit by bit they made the roads wider...
Bit by bit time goes by, it’s been a good place to spend that time. You have me a little curious now...
Shipping in the UPS system appears to be slowing down.
Layoffs among the feeder drivers are already starting in the Midwest and east.
The literal volume (number of trailers) is dropping, but packages and delivery stops haven't dropped too much yet.
This is due to the increase in small package residential deliveries.
Last couple weeks, I-17 had plenty of rigs rolling, and the rest stops were packed.
Seeing fewer rigs on the highway, and the rest stops have fewer rigs than I've seen in the last two years.
Total truck tonnage looks like it's falling off a cliff.
That’s not a good indicator. :(
Cheers for the updates, that’s an important one.
6.6m new unemployment claims.
Like the time my daughter drove her car without oil. The engine just froze up.
Good times.
LHC
I wonder if there is an analogy that can be made between COVID-19 hard stop layoffs and Paul Bremen’s CPA Order 2(disbanding Iraqi Army)?
Payments were made to unemployed Iraqi Army personnel, but it was considered by many to be too little, too late(contributing to sectarian violence and the strong man void)
Does a similar risk(minus sectarianism/strong man void) exist here?
To be clear, I’m not implying an open violent insurgency within America, but more of a political activation along the lines of the 99.9% non violent direct action protests such as those more commonly found in places like France today, and across Europe in the early 80’s.
Last hard class
04-03-2020, 23:07
I wonder if there is an analogy that can be made between COVID-19 hard stop layoffs and Paul Bremen’s CPA Order 2(disbanding Iraqi Army)?
Payments were made to unemployed Iraqi Army personnel, but it was considered by many to be too little, too late(contributing to sectarian violence and the strong man void)
Does a similar risk(minus sectarianism/strong man void) exist here?
To be clear, I’m not implying an open violent insurgency within America, but more of a political activation along the lines of the 99.9% non violent direct action protests such as those more commonly found in places like France today, and across Europe in the early 80’s.
There are 100's of QP's here better qualified than me to answer your question. But I will add that the beach house defenses have been fortified:D
LHC
There are 100's of QP's here better qualified than me to answer your question. But I will add that the beach house defenses have been fortified:D
LHC
Hahaha.
Good to hear.
Our only house is on the beach.....it’s good to have plenty of empty space around for a 4 week national lockdown.
10+ million unemployment claims in a single month is really unprecedented, which sparked the possible analog to CPA Order 2.
What should have been done differently then?
Does that apply to what should be done now or soon?
Last hard class
04-04-2020, 02:25
What should be done now or soon?
Now that is a question I have been contemplating. The short answer is turn the economy back on.
Follow me on this rudimentary outline and with some assistance from the board this could be fleshed out in a day or two.
Lets start with this as a postulate:
"The only way this ends, the only way, is when the susceptible population goes away: illness followed by immunity or death, or an effective vaccine. If you flatten the curve through isolation the disease pops up again as soon as you loosen up. But there's no other option except to let it rip through the population."
One of the pillars that makes this country great is it's economic engine. We have turned it off to flatten the curve and buy some time. I would argue there is a tipping point when the economy is worth more to the country's future than the additional people we may be able to save in the short term.
I left off this part of the quote: "And that’s politically impossible."
Not only do I think its politically possible, I think its a political imperative that we turn the economy on sooner rather than later. Unfortunately, this isn't a case where soldiers can volunteer to pay the price. Its doctors and spouses and neighbors and parents. I know this sounds callous, but there it is.
So when is the tipping point? When we have the capability to handle the surge. And not a day later. Some things that will determine that point.
Antibody tests:
Antibody testing can get some bodies back out there first. I am personally waiting on this myself. These are available now but only be sold to other countries. if, as presumed, there are orders of magnitude more people with mild or no symptoms than documented cases, then it could be a very large number that can get back to life. These people could be re-purposed in the sort term themselves if needed. Hopefully voluntarily.
Covid testing.
I will lets the docs answer but It seems to me there is still great value in ramping this up. With the new 15 minute test results.
PPE:
And everything that entails. Including ventilators. In short order we will be wiping our collective butts with masks and such ( as an aside, either the lie was we didn't need them because there wasn't enough or the lie is we need them now because companies need to make money for the retrofit.)
This is the part we are good at. We are chasing the bus now, but we will be driving it next month. Everything I have read says 6 weeks we can be in a good place. Plus you get two weeks once you let people back out so that's 8 weeks to have the hospitals stocked.
New doctors and Nurses:
Here in California we have nurses weeks from graduation that are not allowed to get in the fight. C'mon man.
Susceptible people remain in isolation. This is key. We know who they are. It will make a difference.
More essential workers not less. If you can do your job and maintain distancing than that's essential. Because it helps the economy stay afloat. Example: LA mayor was asked today about Mobile grooming. Not on the list. But I can easily envision that job being done with proper distancing. Breaking the law? Whatever happened to the law of common sense?
With all economic theorems there is a graph. As we slide down one side we lose lives as we slide the other way we destroy the economy. So 8 weeks is the minimum for the preparedness side. Can the economy wait. Well 2 trillion stimulus is a great start. Truth is most of that money will go to landlords, mortgage holders, grocery stores and needed bailouts. And bailouts will be needed. I don't think we can go eight weeks if we want to maintain our economic status in this world. And I do. I think we have 4 weeks until the damage cannot be undone ( that's another long post). Politics will drag it out farther than I want.
May 15th. Turn the economy on.
I know that means many states will not even have peaked. The better they did early the longer until the peak.
And as suggested, the other tipping point will be civil unrest.
That's my back of the napkin outline. Ideas are much easier than execution.
I welcome all input. Now its on paper I will probably refine it soon.
LHC
Texas_Shooter
04-04-2020, 02:49
A good gauge for us at Union Pacific Railroad is the weekly car loadings. Since March of 2019 car loadings per week have been in a slight decline year over year. Now that COVID-19 has hit, car loadings have taken a hit. Biggest hit was Motor Vehicles & Equipment for Week 13 at a decline of 46% compared to 2019. A majority of auto manufacturing plants have shut down assembly lines to protect employees and comply with state ordered stay-at-home orders.
Overall Week 13 2020 is down 10% from Week 13 2019. Year to Date it is down 8%.
The railroad hauls the raw materials of the economy from rock, cement, raw plastic pellets, coal, lumber, along with the finished products in intermodal containers that go to UPS to get distributed.
IMO our economy was slowing before COVID-19. COVID-19 just sped us up into a recession that was inevitable.
A good gauge for us at Union Pacific Railroad is the weekly car loadings. Since March of 2019 car loadings per week have been in a slight decline year over year. Now that COVID-19 has hit, car loadings have taken a hit. Biggest hit was Motor Vehicles & Equipment for Week 13 at a decline of 46% compared to 2019. A majority of auto manufacturing plants have shut down assembly lines to protect employees and comply with state ordered stay-at-home orders.
Overall Week 13 2020 is down 10% from Week 13 2019. Year to Date it is down 8%.
The railroad hauls the raw materials of the economy from rock, cement, raw plastic pellets, coal, lumber, along with the finished products in intermodal containers that go to UPS to get distributed.
IMO our economy was slowing before COVID-19. COVID-19 just sped us up into a recession that was inevitable.
Another forum member whose name escapes me, previously shared truck cargo volume which is an excellent indicator of economic activity.
We live in a world of accelerating technological change that is disrupting many things that seemed timeless.
This is exemplified by the collapsing longevity of company life expectancy on the Fortune 500.
I wonder if this COVID-19 is simply accelerating the life cycle of both humans(health compromises) and companies(hanging on only due to insanely low % rate environment)?
I wonder if this COVID-19 is the fast forward button for the life expectancy of some humans and businesses unable to survive without artificial intervention?
If true, I wonder if it also extends to geopolitical relationships?
A forcing function that accelerates us faster towards inevitable outcomes.
Now that is a question I have been contemplating. The short answer is turn the economy back on.
Follow me on this rudimentary outline and with some assistance from the board this could be fleshed out in a day or two.
Lets start with this as a postulate:
"The only way this ends, the only way, is when the susceptible population goes away: illness followed by immunity or death, or an effective vaccine. If you flatten the curve through isolation the disease pops up again as soon as you loosen up. But there's no other option except to let it rip through the population."
One of the pillars that makes this country great is it's economic engine. We have turned it off to flatten the curve and buy some time. I would argue there is a tipping point when the economy is worth more to the country's future than the additional people we may be able to save in the short term.
I left off this part of the quote: "And that’s politically impossible."
Not only do I think its politically possible, I think its a political imperative that we turn the economy on sooner rather than later. Unfortunately, this isn't a case where soldiers can volunteer to pay the price. Its doctors and spouses and neighbors and parents. I know this sounds callous, but there it is.
So when is the tipping point? When we have the capability to handle the surge. And not a day later. Some things that will determine that point.
Antibody tests:
Antibody testing can get some bodies back out there first. I am personally waiting on this myself. These are available now but only be sold to other countries. if, as presumed, there are orders of magnitude more people with mild or no symptoms than documented cases, then it could be a very large number that can get back to life. These people could be re-purposed in the sort term themselves if needed. Hopefully voluntarily.
Covid testing.
I will lets the docs answer but It seems to me there is still great value in ramping this up. With the new 15 minute test results.
PPE:
And everything that entails. Including ventilators. In short order we will be wiping our collective butts with masks and such ( as an aside, either the lie was we didn't need them because there wasn't enough or the lie is we need them now because companies need to make money for the retrofit.)
This is the part we are good at. We are chasing the bus now, but we will be driving it next month. Everything I have read says 6 weeks we can be in a good place. Plus you get two weeks once you let people back out so that's 8 weeks to have the hospitals stocked.
New doctors and Nurses:
Here in California we have nurses weeks from graduation that are not allowed to get in the fight. C'mon man.
Susceptible people remain in isolation. This is key. We know who they are. It will make a difference.
More essential workers not less. If you can do your job and maintain distancing than that's essential. Because it helps the economy stay afloat. Example: LA mayor was asked today about Mobile grooming. Not on the list. But I can easily envision that job being done with proper distancing. Breaking the law? Whatever happened to the law of common sense?
With all economic theorems there is a graph. As we slide down one side we lose lives as we slide the other way we destroy the economy. So 8 weeks is the minimum for the preparedness side. Can the economy wait. Well 2 trillion stimulus is a great start. Truth is most of that money will go to landlords, mortgage holders, grocery stores and needed bailouts. And bailouts will be needed. I don't think we can go eight weeks if we want to maintain our economic status in this world. And I do. I think we have 4 weeks until the damage cannot be undone ( that's another long post). Politics will drag it out farther than I want.
May 15th. Turn the economy on.
I know that means many states will not even have peaked. The better they did early the longer until the peak.
And as suggested, the other tipping point will be civil unrest.
That's my back of the napkin outline. Ideas are much easier than execution.
I welcome all input. Now its on paper I will probably refine it soon.
LHC
Solid post.
Let me ask you a question.
Could an iteration of Krulak’s 3 Block War work here?
I’ll avoid discussion around it’s application in kinetic war and just stick to the possible application of it to a viral mid intensity “war”.
mid-intensity war —>Respond to virus aggressively
peacekeeping ops —> Reboot socioeconomic activity
humanitarian ops —> Recover socioeconomic output gaps with new norms
All done concurrently, by “block”, rather than consecutively.
Because if history is any indication, we’re going to have a few waves, and at least 18 months until a vaccine is developed.
A vaccine is still at least a year away.
Social isolation flattened the curve, yet COVID-19 reemerges.
It ends when Darwin burns through the vulnerable and weak in the population, there will be additional waves.
How does this impact a reboot of the economy employing Kurlak lowest rank decision make which implies “Small Business Owner,” largest employer of labor.
Respond Reboot Recover
All done concurrently, by “block”, rather than consecutively.
This action is ongoing and outside the effective range the individual SBO, as a micro decision maker can only respond to opportunity, if permitted to do so.
Operationally dependent on authority to execute a relaunch/plan and, for the greater social/local good is further dependent upon the social trust the client/citizen base has for the overall authority.
Relaunch is dependent on the relationships that have developed over time, combined with the social trust and security the population experiences with regard to leaderships ability to ensure trust, it is both a macro and micro sensibility.
A vaccine is still at least a year away.
Agreed, even 18 months sounds like a Herculean effort.
Social isolation flattened the curve, yet COVID-19 reemerges.
It ends when Darwin burns through the vulnerable and weak in the population, there will be additional waves.
Absolutely. Too many people seen to understand that lockdown flattens it, but doesn’t stop it from just extending out over time.
How does this impact a reboot of the economy employing Kurlak lowest rank decision make which implies “Small Business Owner,” largest employer of labor.
I view it as more localised than lowest level, while they overlap, they are not identical.
I’m a small business owner. I think I should have latitude, but also responsibility to go along with it.
Respond Reboot Recover
All done concurrently, by “block”, rather than consecutively.
This action is ongoing and outside the effective range the individual SBO, as a micro decision maker can only respond to opportunity, if permitted to do so.
Agreed. And that’s where local government and critical services need to weigh in for local environment conditions.
Operationally dependent on authority to execute a relaunch/plan and, for the greater social/local good is further dependent upon the social trust the client/citizen base has for the overall authority.
Agreed.
Relaunch is dependent on the relationships that have developed over time, combined with the social trust and security the population experiences with regard to leaderships ability to ensure trust, it is both a macro and micro sensibility.
Agreed.
I SO hate saying this, but maybe it should be left largely to a local public/private partnership.
Public/private partnership has been misused and abused so much, I’m almost afraid to write it.
Maybe Krulak’s 3 continguous blocks of different concurrent activity is valid, maybe it’s not.
Maybe it’s a mashup with surgery, where the intent is to keep a patient under for as short a period a time as necessary.
You can’t keep a patient on a Very expensive heart/lung machine indefinitely, they need to recover and pay the hospital bill.
A patient can’t bill for work he’s not doing while under anaesthesia.
But I like Krulak’s 3 contiguous blocks of 3 different concurrent activities because we need to reboot AND recover AND respond(again) concurrently a couple more times before this is over.
As a small business owner, we’re fortunate to be able to outlast most, if not all.
My concern with leaving everything(or most) up to my small business peers and I is the increased public health risk tolerance taken by those who approach the brink of financial collapse.
A possible future scenario:The public and private partnership is authorized to operate/relaunch/open for business following a public address....
News conference National leaders and COVID-19 Team Present the following to the American public and the world.
“It is now May 30th, we have completed our collective goal of virus containment with volunteer home isolation, flattening the curve, but not eliminating the virus in our society or the world.
In getting back to a functional society, we need to get back to work.
In doing so, we must understand that a vaccine is 12/18 months away, and during that time period, there will be a 2nd, and a 3rd wave of the COVID-19 virus before a vaccine, if our scientist are fortunate enough to develop one, that remedy this horrible crises the world is confronting; in the meantime, and we have to come to terms with this, more people will die.
There in nothing that will prevent that outcome, absent a vaccine.
Knowing this and understanding the necessity of society as a whole, we must move forward, by accepting those inevitable deaths, while protecting the legacy of our social responsibilities, with a commitment to the living and those that have survived, only in that way will we see ourselves through this horrible plague and too greater future."
Badger52
04-05-2020, 16:00
As GratefulCitizen & others have mentioned, shipping tonnage is way down.
Here's a little Sunday afternoon tale (https://www.jsonline.com/story/money/2020/04/04/roundys-wisconsin-warehouse-ships-162-million-tons-food-hiring/5089674002/) from the grocery warehouse of a small regional chain, based here in Oconomowoc.
Barnard Tillman can’t remember the last time he had a day off. Kenneth Green thinks he might have had one a couple weeks ago, but he isn’t sure. The days tend to run together when you’re working largely unseen on the front lines of a pandemic.
Tillman and Green, together with hundreds of their co-workers at the Roundy’s Supermarkets distribution center in Oconomowoc, have been working days on end to keep the company's grocery stores in Wisconsin and northern Illinois stocked during panic buying brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic.
What they have achieved is nothing short of astonishing: They have shipped 162 million pounds of food in the past four weeks. That's a 30% increase over normal.
The increase happened almost overnight.
"The amount of food we were shipping out just kept growing," said Richard Bridwell, senior supply chain manager at the facility. "I’ve been in logistics 25 years and this is the first time I’ve seen anything like this."
The center has been sending about 225 tractor-trailer loads of food to stores every day since stay-at-home and business closure orders have taken effect.
With people stuck at home and restaurants all but shut down, grocery sales have skyrocketed.
The rate at which stores need to restock seems to have plateaued in recent days, but it remains extremely high.
For shoppers, that means items that might not have been available are slowly returning to store shelves.
"The stores have filled in a lot of holes," Bridwell said. "There are still some gaps in the supply chain on certain items but they are starting to come back online."
GratefulCitizen
04-05-2020, 17:53
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/peak-volumes-are-now-in-the-rearview-mirror
Bad indicator for the overall economy.
But, the additional trucking capacity available for the industries still working, puts low fuel prices means critical goods should be cheap and available.
On a side note, the Arizona UPS feeder department is still training new drivers at maximum capacity (it's limited by the number of trainers and length of training cycle).
This is despite the fact that two or three dozen runs have been cut and around 40 feeder drivers have been bumped back down into package delivery.
UPS is still planning for continued growth.
Also noticed that domestic oil production hasn't dropped significantly, though that may take time to show.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W
A possible future scenario:The public and private partnership is authorized to operate/relaunch/open for business following a public address....
News conference National leaders and COVID-19 Team Present the following to the American public and the world.
“It is now May 30th, we have completed our collective goal of virus containment with volunteer home isolation, flattening the curve, but not eliminating the virus in our society or the world.
In getting back to a functional society, we need to get back to work.
In doing so, we must understand that a vaccine is 12/18 months away, and during that time period, there will be a 2nd, and a 3rd wave of the COVID-19 virus before a vaccine, if our scientist are fortunate enough to develop one, that remedy this horrible crises the world is confronting; in the meantime, and we have to come to terms with this, more people will die.
There in nothing that will prevent that outcome, absent a vaccine.
Knowing this and understanding the necessity of society as a whole, we must move forward, by accepting those inevitable deaths, while protecting the legacy of our social responsibilities, with a commitment to the living and those that have survived, only in that way will we see ourselves through this horrible plague and too greater future."
I could get behind that.
I wonder how best to roll out coms on “excess deaths” or “accelerated deaths”, over and above those who would have normally died.
I suspect offset, and tangentially referenced by anyone elected.
Speaking of offset and tangential(retired one star): https://t.co/iDOdaxYWHH?amp=1
I’ll post that link in the other thread as well.
Badger52
04-05-2020, 19:05
I wonder how best to roll out coms on “excess deaths” or “accelerated deaths”, over and above those who would have normally died.
In this country it wouldn't be rolled out. It would be a freight-train smashing into a bridge abutment. They are very good (as are many sitting politicians) at stampeding the herd, for a variety of purposes.
At higher than county level health service offices (forward battle line), numbers of those recovered are still difficult to locate at information sources state & higher. In the media, predominantly crickets unless there's some $$-making twist, like a famous person recovers.
[/curmudgeon]
In this country it wouldn't be rolled out. It would be a freight-train smashing into a bridge abutment. They are very good (as are many sitting politicians) at stampeding the herd, for a variety of purposes.
At higher than county level health service offices (forward battle line), numbers of those recovered are still difficult to locate at information sources state & higher. In the media, predominantly crickets unless there's some $$-making twist, like a famous person recovers.
[/curmudgeon]
I can definitely imagine real numbers being thrown up and then buried in noise.
It would be cool to see a simple, clean accelerated/excess deaths charts on what the real impact is someday.
Beijing is stepping on their schmekel(s), Big Time :munchin
China is racking up a very negative PR problem :D
China forces Italy to buy same coronavirus supplies it had donated to Beijing a few weeks ago
https://www.foxnews.com/world/china-italy-coronavirus-supplies-buy-back
Beijing is stepping on their schmekel(s), Big Time :munchin
China is racking up a very negative PR problem :D
And I hope that we are helping them with that negative PR.
Badger52
04-06-2020, 12:18
And I hope that we are helping them with that negative PR.I wonder how a petition to vote them out of the UN Security Council would be received? Not likelikhood of success, but just "floating" such a thing would be interesting. That would a long-term strategic knock I doubt they'd be willing to say "ho-hum" about.
I'm sure CNN is standing by waiting to help China spin things in their favor.
Xenophobia and all that jazz
I wonder how a petition to vote them out of the UN Security Council would be received? Not likelikhood of success, but just "floating" such a thing would be interesting. That would a long-term strategic knock I doubt they'd be willing to say "ho-hum" about.
The Left owns the UN, that idea is a non-starter. :mad:
I wonder how a petition to vote them out of the UN Security Council would be received?.....
Careful with that.
I'd bet a majority of countries would like to see us voted off.
Badger52
04-06-2020, 14:48
The Left owns the UN, that idea is a non-starter. :mad:Careful with that.
I'd bet a majority of countries would like to see us voted off.You make sense on both counts. I can imagine though.
Beijing is stepping on their schmekel(s), Big Time :munchin
:D
I've decided to go back to calling it Peking. That's what my favorite Chinese duck dish is called. I'm un-PCing myself. I'm fed up being told what I can and can't say. Genders are He, She, or It. Pick a lane and be proud.
Now, back to the Red-Chinese Flu discussion . . .
I've decided to go back to calling it Peking. That's what my favorite Chinese duck dish is called. I'm un-PCing myself. I'm fed up being told what I can and can't say. Genders are He, She, or It. Pick a lane and be proud.
Now, back to the Red-Chinese Flu discussion . . .
I’m referring to this as the Chinese Communist Party Virus, or CCP Virus.
Adding "Communist" before and "Party" after as word bookends makes it no longer racist. :)
Many in gen pop are throwing around enough blame to choke a goat, seemingly with the attention span of a fruit fly.
The authoritarian communist system that imprisoned the Chinese healthcare workers for speaking out when they first identified it needs to be held accountable in the public narrative.
1stindoor
04-07-2020, 05:48
Careful with that.
I'd bet a majority of countries would like to see us voted off.
If we get voted off...do we get to keep the state and/or building in the divorce settlement?
If we get voted off...do we get to keep the state and/or building in the divorce settlement?
Well, if they call a vote, if I were President, I would just say "If you vote us off the security council the UN will have seen the last dollar from us."
Well, if they call a vote, if I were President, I would just say "If you vote us off the security council the UN will have seen the last dollar from us."
AND vacate all USA properties ASAP.. :lifter:mad::lifter
miclo18d
04-07-2020, 07:00
Well, if they call a vote, if I were President, I would just say "If you vote us off the security council the UN will have seen the last dollar from us."
It would probably solve 90% of the world problems if we shut the doors to that palace of fktardery
And in the "Orange Man Bad" all the time we have this hit piece from HuffPo.
"Donald Trump Has Stake In Hydroxychloroquine Drugmaker"
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/donald-trump-stake-company-hydroxychloroquine_n_5e8c41d7c5b6e1d10a696280?gucc ounter=1
"President Donald Trump reportedly owns a stake in a company that produces hydroxychloroquine, the anti-malaria drug he has repeatedly touted as a coronavirus treatment even though his experts say there’s no strong evidence it works...."
Any profit for the company in hydroxychloroquine will be tiny compared to what Big Pharma will get with something expensive - and under patent.
And in the "Orange Man Bad" all the time we have this hit piece from HuffPo.
"Donald Trump Has Stake In Hydroxychloroquine Drugmaker"
So do I, it's called my 401K plan :]
Any profit for the company in hydroxychloroquine will be tiny compared to what Big Pharma will get with something expensive - and under patent.
And smaller still than Trump Inc.'s losses in his hospitality businesses.
Ret10Echo
04-09-2020, 10:20
Apparently positive impact for some liquor stores adjacent to states where the ABC's have shut down..
Liquor store closures send residents over the border
While the nation navigates its way through stay-at-home orders and social distancing guidelines, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, New York and Rhode Island have gone a step further by imposing limitations on what out-of-state residents can purchase in their states and whether such residents should be forced to self-quarantine when entering those states’ borders.
“It’s been crazy. That’s all I can say. It has been fantastic for us.”
Apr 9, 2020
LynAnne Vucovich
Special to the Mirror (https://www.altoonamirror.com/news/local-news/2020/04/liquor-store-closures-send-residents-over-the-border/)
GratefulCitizen
04-16-2020, 07:46
The higher education bubble may pop.
Remote learning will quickly displace the old model.
This would have an effect on local economies where large universities are located.
Real estate prices may drop severely where rental markets are supported by student populations.
The higher education bubble may pop.
Remote learning will quickly displace the old model.
This would have an effect on local economies where large universities are located.
Real estate prices may drop severely where rental markets are supported by student populations.
My G-Kids are using ZOOM socially with their friends, ages 5-14.
Their teachers are scrambling to be relevant and viable.
I'm sure the unions will fight any effort to dissolve the K-12 education structure as it stands.
This may be the straw that breaks the current paradigm?
The Jetsons showed the way in 1962 with home shopping and education :lifter:D:lifter
Life really DOES imitate art.
If life starts to imitate some of the "art" I produced when I was in elementary school - we are all well and truly fucked.
The Jetsons showed the way in 1962 with home shopping and education :lifter:D:lifter
Lol, Rocky Retro baby !:lifter
Badger52
04-16-2020, 13:24
Lol, Rocky Retro baby !:lifterAnd a date to Denny's - what could be safer?
Golf1echo
04-16-2020, 13:47
Life really DOES imitate art.
If life starts to imitate some of the "art" I produced when I was in elementary school - we are all well and truly fucked.
I think we have all been seeing patterns, often separate but the same patterns. They beg questions but not always clear what questions... we talk about the puppet masters but tend to think of individuals vs organizations or communities almost a counter culture at work. Perhaps this video has been posted before but I found “Out of the shadows” illuminating in many respects. It’s a longer video and has some slow points but so much is on point. It felt a little diabolical at points but what really gave me chills was thinking about how we elected President Trump and that was the last thing these reprobates wanted. If you watch it I think you will find yourself interjecting many of the issues we have faced in the last several decades.
https://m.*******.com/watch?v=0wTiCxXgrJw
Ret10Echo
04-16-2020, 14:07
My G-Kids are using ZOOM socially with their friends, ages 5-14.
Their teachers are scrambling to be relevant and viable.
I'm sure the unions will fight any effort to dissolve the K-12 education structure as it stands.
This may be the straw that breaks the current paradigm?
The Jetsons showed the way in 1962 with home shopping and education :lifter:D:lifter
CoWorker with school-aged children...
District announced that distance learning would commence. Teacher assigns the following project: "Which is more believable/provable - Loch Ness Monster or Bigfoot?" Write a paper, 2 Weeks to complete......that is all.
Uhmmm......
Badger52
04-16-2020, 15:03
District announced that distance learning would commence. Teacher assigns the following project: "Which is more believable/provable - Loch Ness Monster or Bigfoot?" Write a paper, 2 Weeks to complete......that is all.
Uhmmm......I can see why that would be upsetting; it's so racist.
What about Yeti?
:mad:
"Which is more believable/provable - Loch Ness Monster or Bigfoot?"
I was watching a documentary recently - it usually plays in 1 minutes episodes that air throughout the day during standard network programming...
It seems that not only is "Bigfoot" real - his name is Darryl.
Hey now, the Swamp Apes say they should be included also.
My money’s on ‘squatch...
I can see why that would be upsetting; it's so racist.
What about Yeti?
:mad:
Yeti!! What about the Hodag ?
How could anyone possibly be OK with this? :rolleyes:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/angry-shoppers-slam-rules-preventing-153710207.html
This is both to prevent shoppers from spending unnecessary time browsing the store, and thereby limiting their possible exposure to coronavirus, and also to make it fairer to other stores that sell mostly nonessential items and have been forced to close during this time.
TOMAHAWK9521
04-16-2020, 18:19
Don't exclude the Yowli or dog men.
How could anyone possibly be OK with this? :rolleyes:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/angry-shoppers-slam-rules-preventing-153710207.html
This is both to prevent shoppers from spending unnecessary time browsing the store, and thereby limiting their possible exposure to coronavirus, and also to make it fairer to other stores that sell mostly nonessential items and have been forced to close during this time.
I plan to make as few stops as possible. I love stores where I can get a T Shirt, Milk, Bread and some nails all in one stop.
TOMAHAWK9521
04-16-2020, 18:25
The higher education bubble may pop.
Remote learning will quickly displace the old model.
This would have an effect on local economies where large universities are located.
Real estate prices may drop severely where rental markets are supported by student populations.
I've seen some colleges are now sniveling and demanding a cut of the stimulus bill. I say let them go without. The Education Industrial Complex has been getting too big and influential for too long. :mad:
I plan to make as few stops as possible. I love stores where I can get a T Shirt, Milk, Bread and some nails all in one stop.
Same same. I would think that would be a good plan, evidently some don't think so.
doctom54
04-16-2020, 19:01
I've seen some colleges are now sniveling and demanding a cut of the stimulus bill. I say let them go without. The Education Industrial Complex has been getting too big and influential for too long. :mad:
Yep! The education "system" is about making money generally off of student loans and they have NO responsibility. Way too many administrators and too few educators. I hope they sink back to where they were 40 years ago.
doctom54
04-16-2020, 19:04
I plan to make as few stops as possible. I love stores where I can get a T Shirt, Milk, Bread and some nails all in one stop.
We have hardwire store here in town (about 2,200 people) hardware, plumbing, electric, feed, lumber, guns, ammo and actually more reloading stuff than any gun store around. Plus nice people. Not the same price as Walmart or Lowe's but they get my business.
Oh yah fresh eggs people bring in every day.
How could anyone possibly be OK with this? :rolleyes:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/angry-shoppers-slam-rules-preventing-153710207.html
This is both to prevent shoppers from spending unnecessary time browsing the store, and thereby limiting their possible exposure to coronavirus, and also to make it fairer to other stores that sell mostly nonessential items and have been forced to close during this time.
I know how I feel about this but cannot find the words to convey my feelings. Too many sheep willing to be lead by the wolves. I thank the good Lord that I live where I do, the dems control nothing in Iowa.
1stindoor
04-17-2020, 06:13
Along those same lines, I stopped at Lowe's this morning to make a return. On the way out I grabbed two 1/2 gal bottles of bleach (they were out of the 1 Gal bottles). The lady at the register said I could only buy one. I asked if they still had the 1 gal bottles in stock what would the "rule" be then?....She said you could still only buy one. I asked her if she understood the fallacy in her statement? She said no, those are the rules, only one item. I had to laugh.
I think she would find Daryl more believable over Nessie.
Ret10Echo
04-17-2020, 06:19
I think she would find Daryl more believable over Nessie.
Well done! Multi-response integration bonus points :D
miclo18d
04-17-2020, 07:16
Along those same lines, I stopped at Lowe's this morning to make a return. On the way out I grabbed two 1/2 gal bottles of bleach (they were out of the 1 Gal bottles). The lady at the register said I could only buy one. I asked if they still had the 1 gal bottles in stock what would the "rule" be then?....She said you could still only buy one. I asked her if she understood the fallacy in her statement? She said no, those are the rules, only one item. I had to laugh.
I think she would find Daryl more believable over Nessie.
She works at Lowe’s because she couldn’t get a job at MIT.
rsdengler
04-17-2020, 07:18
Along those same lines, I stopped at Lowe's this morning to make a return. On the way out I grabbed two 1/2 gal bottles of bleach (they were out of the 1 Gal bottles). The lady at the register said I could only buy one. I asked if they still had the 1 gal bottles in stock what would the "rule" be then?....She said you could still only buy one. I asked her if she understood the fallacy in her statement? She said no, those are the rules, only one item. I had to laugh.
I think she would find Daryl more believable over Nessie.
Take your wife next time, you buy one and she can buy the other. ;)
It's ridiculous, it's bad enough some states are roping off areas in the stores. Really? you're in there shopping already gee whiz. I think there may be some people who will start to shoplift some items. I think I'd just go under the rope, grab something and throw my money on the counter. See ya....:D
Along those same lines, I stopped at Lowe's this morning to make a return.
You are lucky you can do returns, Menards in Iowa City will not accept returns at this time due to the virus. The counter person said that it was by order of the CDC.
Along those same lines, I stopped at Lowe's this morning to make a return. On the way out I grabbed two 1/2 gal bottles of bleach (they were out of the 1 Gal bottles). The lady at the register said I could only buy one. I asked if they still had the 1 gal bottles in stock what would the "rule" be then?....She said you could still only buy one. I asked her if she understood the fallacy in her statement? She said no, those are the rules, only one item. I had to laugh.
I think she would find Daryl more believable over Nessie.
She is just doing her best to keep things simple...:rolleyes:
Can you imagine her trying to work as a cashier without having a register that *tells* her what change to give back....
You are lucky you can do returns, Menards in Iowa City will not accept returns at this time due to the virus. The counter person said that it was by order of the CDC.
Used to run up to the Menards in Rochester all the time before I joined the Army.
1stindoor
04-17-2020, 08:05
You are lucky you can do returns, Menards in Iowa City will not accept returns at this time due to the virus. The counter person said that it was by order of the CDC.
Along those lines, we were at Target last night getting clothes for my wife's nephew's birthday and noticed signs all over the place saying you could no longer try clothes on in the store. But apparently you can purchase them, try them on at home, then return them. Which I guess makes a lot more sense. I also found it funny that they only had the self checkout (which I normally loathe) and two registers open. So everyone stood in a line that wrapped around through the store...albeit everyone was 6' apart.
We made a game called see "how many different masks you can see." Then discuss how useless they are.
I know how I feel about this but cannot find the words to convey my feelings.
I can find the words, just not very ladylike. :D
Badger52
04-17-2020, 19:06
I'll just type some extracts 'cause we get the rag itself & it'll avoid a paywall. This is from the local county paper, which is the one to have around here being a compendium of the 2 city papers in the area. The article in the Monroe County Herald was discussing the Payroll Protection Program piece of the CARES Act, and how much it leaves actual restauranteurs in the lurch. In terms of not being able to migrate as fast-food chains do, a couple of the precious few actual nice supper club owners discussed a few of the Catch-22's involved; Joseph Heller would be proud.
The problem is that restaurant owners don't know when they'll be able to reopen (being non-essential in a Governor's order he proxied through his Health Dep't head). In-house dining is prohibited in all bars & restaurants (regardless of location or situation).
...
Another stipulation of the PPP... is that businesses have to recall their entire workforce and keep them on staff for 8 weeks.
"It's really great but there are a lot of aspects covering a lot of businesses. At this point, what's been offered (to restaurants) is the ability to fill a hole by digging another hole."
The loan (which has to be expended by the end of June) would allow Murray to call back his employees, but it may come at a time when the order is still in effect.
(Note: It is. Dipshit down in Madison just extended it yesterday to 26 May.)
"Am I supposed to bring people in just to have them stand around?"
"Today's bills are paid by tomorrow's income, that's the way it works. From what I had scheduled in my banquet area I've already lost hundreds of thousands of dollars in sales. How do I replace that?
Another owner also lamented that the program expires at the end of June and the forced closure came on the heels of his busiest holiday time of Christmas and just following that.
"I had a huge staff and I'd have to bring in all that staff. There's no way I can be back at 100% by June."
And to reiterate, the Dipshit Governor extended the thing another month. Technically he didn't do it; he ordered his DHS Sec'y to do it. That way he's not violating the State Constitution RE exceeding the duration of his own statewide emergency declaration. (This is the same guy who decided to try to postpone the primary election the day before the election, after stating he knew he was exceeding his authority. Yes. We miss Walker.)
Everyone really knows what's important to this governor. The big news down in the Commie Enclave of Madison is that :eek: the University has to actually start discussing laying some people off and (forgetting their 9-figure slush fund) where are they going to make up the lost revenue from dorm fees, meal fees, and OMG! - Badger sporting events.
These 2 nicer (for the area) supper clubs are, I suspect, a microcosm of what's happening in other places and a scathing condemnation of the cookie-cutter approach. This is not Madison or Milwaukee. It's 900 sq. miles and the biggest town & its surrounds has 9k, not counting Holsteins, beef critters, emus and free-ranging chickens. We have 7 cases of the virus ongoing, isolating at home, no one in hospital, and 5 recovered. I asked a gal honcho'ing the local McD's I've known for over 20 years, since she was a teenager, what scares her the most. "People coming off the interstate from any of the big cities."
On the flipside of this, our little bass club - with outdoor activities authorized - is stiil going to conduct our 2 tournaments 2-3 May on the Mississippi. "Social distancing should be maintained as reasonably as possible" says Reichskommissar Evers. Our economic impact statement will be along the lines of some early drive-thru McMuffins and gas. If the Governor asks why, the response is BFYTW.
Now where's that 5-lb smallie I put back last year...?
:munchin
Thank you for the kind thoughts, I am grateful there are those like yourself who appreciate this situation other than the owners. Trust this, the entire post examples the conversations we are having everyday with peers. From what we understand, only the major players will and have benefited to date. The restaurant groups which are usually tied ti investment bankers. One group is rumored to have received 20 million. A lot of coin, but they have 2K employees.
The PPP is a dressed up SBA loan, and SBA loans are difficult to impossible to complete without the hire of expense talent. We have only partnered or borrowed short terms notes from angel investors/foodies.
This is one time when being small and agile is preferable.
Again, thx on the thoughts. B52
Badger52
04-17-2020, 19:35
Again, thx on the thoughts. B52Glad it resonated; I was out on a limb & out of my lane. But it's the same thing we've all seen at times, with RoE managed by someone 12,000 miles away who's never seen the 2-way range. Never fails to stick in my craw for a statist who's never taken a financial risk or built anything hold forth on the all-knowing solution regarding how others ought to make their living. It's power & they love it. There's a reflexive thing with my middle finger...
From Out of Africa:
Barclay: "Listen, the sooner we do this, the sooner it ends, the sooner we pick up where we left off."
Finch-Hatton: "It may end. But we're not going to pick up where we left off."
Has nothing to do with this thread, but you hit a soft spot with "Out of Africa"...One of my all time favorites, especially the photography. Not a fan of MS.
Badger52
04-17-2020, 19:54
Not a fan of MS.Only if she stays in her area of expertise & then shuts up at the end of the day. You're right of course. Acting in that film by EVERYone was superb and John Barry's score is a benchmark. And they didn't deviate too much from her writings. Think I'll pop that into the player since I can't run down to Murray's for a quick order of some beer-batter fried cheese curds & jalapenos as he is being adversely economically impacted.
There; back on track.
:D
Interesting conversation with the shop owner who does the work on all my cars.
Needed a motor mount for my Ford Focus (older model) and it took 10 days for it to come in.
It appears since the parts plants for the major car makers are shut down and it's getting harder to get "factory new" replacement parts. He said it took three days to find a transmission - usually one day and four days to find motor mounts for another vehicle. Had to get the pair from two different places.
He said the after market parts are not seeing a shortage - yet.
Never let a crisis got to waste the left always says.
Way before this virus thing came along we've talked about cities (Chicago) and states (California) being buried and about to go broke because of their pension funds.
Didn't take long for them to line up at the virus gravy train and ask for a bailout.
"The president of the State Senate asked for $40 billion to help the pension system, fund unemployment insurance and aid hospitals and cities.
Illinois needs more than $40 billion in relief from the federal government because of the coronavirus pandemic — including $10 billion to help bail out its beleaguered pension system, according to a letter the Illinois Senate president sent to members of Congress. .."
Behind a pay wall at the NY Slimes.
The hype from this virus would have Richard Cloward and Frances Piven doing cartwheels of joy.
A few more months and a democrat win in November and its possible for Cloward Piven to prove successful is just a tad more than 50 years.
To think that naysayers have been calling the Cloward-Piven strategy a pipe dream all these years.
...nah - never happen here in the USA - we are too "tuned in" to fall for some shit like that.
tom kelly
04-18-2020, 14:20
Liberal States with Democrat liberal politicians are using this "Crisis" to hide their inept social strategies like non-funding pension plans or just stealing the money the employees paid into the pension plan. The teamsters pension money was used by the Chicago Mafia to invest in building Las Vegas, without the consent of the people who paid into the pension, NOW State & Local Governments see a way to hide the fact that they STOLD or Did Not Pay into the pension funds. This CRIME will cause The SHTF real soon and civil unrest will morph into outright CIVIL WAR against the local & State leaders who have enabled this STEALING MONEY for liberal causes such as NPR, Performing Arts, The Kennedy Center, Planned Parenthood & thousands of other BS projects, causes and Utopian Dreams of the radical liberal left. Just a matter of Time & not years away. Liberal Politicians will not have anywhere to hide & will be vulnerable to retribution from the people they screwed over the last 70 + years. Liberal Pundits should be reviewing what happened to Benito Mussolini & his paramour when the citizens caught him...PREPARE FOR THE FUTURE, it's not going to be easy because the World as we knew it is GONE. My Thoughts on this matter. Any other comments?
Golf1echo
04-18-2020, 16:03
Agree Tom, have realized liberal governance is completely unable to fix problems nor do I think they have much intention to do so. The homeless problems in California, illegal immigration, Criminal justice, health care, etc... the problems themselves have become hugely profitable for the liberal politicians and some conservative ones as well... they leverage everything with money and of course take their cuts. Look how wealthy they become and look how fast freshman congress criters learn to do same.
GratefulCitizen
04-19-2020, 12:22
From the perspective of a truck driver, things seemed to have stabilized.
There was a dramatic increase with all of the forward-pull demand followed by a sharp drop off, but things overall in shipping don't look too bad.
There are 360 feeder drivers working for UPS in Arizona, the majority of those (303) are on the Goodyear seniority list.
40 from that list were bumped back into package 2 weeks ago, 60 last week, and 55 this upcoming week.
This isn't actually too bad considering that most of them are backup drivers and barely any regular permanent feeder drivers are currently taking vacation (around ~20% of a list is allowed to simultaneously schedule time off).
Package drivers in Flagstaff are getting laid off, but many of them are getting offered temporary UPS driver work elsewhere in the state.
UPS is still training new feeder drivers at maximum capacity, buying new equipment, and management hasn't sent down any of the directives which indicate attempts at cost saving.
The company appears to be planning for a quick rebound in the economy.
Badger52
04-19-2020, 13:55
Whole post.This is good news, literally from rubber meeting road.
(and doing nothing in this neck of the woods to diminish your hero status)
:cool:
From the perspective of a truck driver, things seemed to have stabilized.
The company appears to be planning for a quick rebound in the economy.
Very encouraging, thank you.
GratefulCitizen
04-19-2020, 19:10
This is good news, literally from rubber meeting road.
(and doing nothing in this neck of the woods to diminish your hero status)
:cool:
Just happy to be working.
Maybe they expect their trucking load will be heavy since lotsa brick and mortar stores will be out of business. People ordering from the internet for home delivery as opposed to running to the local store.
Does not necessarily mean the economy will come back, just UPS.
1stindoor
04-20-2020, 06:07
Just happy to be working.
Thanks for that pic! That was great. I was talking to a truck driver yesterday before he left Food Lion. Told him thank you. He said he'd been trucking for over 20 years, and it's just been in the last few months that people seem to actually "see him."
Looks like Frau uber-fuhrer Merkel is wasting little time in getting in line for her perceived do.
Germany sends China £130billion bill for 'coronavirus damages' – sparks fury in Beijing, By Oli Smith, PUBLISHED: 00:01, Mon, Apr 20, 2020 | UPDATED: 10:10, Mon, Apr 20, 2020
GERMANY has rattled China after joining the UK, France and the US in a rare attack, after Berlin called out Beijing's responsibility for the global pandemic and even issued a £130bn invoice.
Germany has sparked outrage in China after a major newspaper put together a £130bn invoice that Beijing "owes" Berlin following the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Germany has followed France, the UK and the US in directing its coronavirus anger at China, where the virus originated. Recent attacks come amid findings that Beijing appeared to cover up the true scale of the crisis, as the source of the outbreak remains a mystery.
On Saturday, Donald Trump warned that China should face consequences if it was “knowingly responsible” for unleashing the coronavirus pandemic.
President Trump told reporters: "It could have been stopped in China before it started and it wasn’t, and the whole world is suffering because of it.
“If it was a mistake, a mistake is a mistake. But if they were knowingly responsible, then there should be consequences.
He said the Chinese were “embarrassed” and the question was whether what happened with the coronavirus was “a mistake that got out of control, or was it done deliberately?”
link: (https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1271028/Angela-Merkel-Germany-China-coronavirus-blame-Wuhan-Xi-Jinping-Trump-latest)
PedOncoDoc
04-20-2020, 08:29
Looks like Frau uber-fuhrer Merkel is wasting little time in getting in line for her perceived do.
Nice to see something out of Germany's leader that goes along with American and British efforts for a change.
I think the response should be to nullify all foreign debt held by China and watch them fall apart from within.
Badger52
04-20-2020, 10:42
What's this "Germany" shit? Since when has she cared about "Germany" unless it was the DDR?
What happened to the European Union? I thought they were all one big happy family....
Looks like Frau uber-fuhrer Merkel is wasting little time in getting in line for her perceived do.
I believe we should send Xi our China Virus bill as well. And do it publicly.
sfshooter
04-20-2020, 20:01
From the perspective of a truck driver, things seemed to have stabilized.
There was a dramatic increase with all of the forward-pull demand followed by a sharp drop off, but things overall in shipping don't look too bad.
There are 360 feeder drivers working for UPS in Arizona, the majority of those (303) are on the Goodyear seniority list.
40 from that list were bumped back into package 2 weeks ago, 60 last week, and 55 this upcoming week.
This isn't actually too bad considering that most of them are backup drivers and barely any regular permanent feeder drivers are currently taking vacation (around ~20% of a list is allowed to simultaneously schedule time off).
Package drivers in Flagstaff are getting laid off, but many of them are getting offered temporary UPS driver work elsewhere in the state.
UPS is still training new feeder drivers at maximum capacity, buying new equipment, and management hasn't sent down any of the directives which indicate attempts at cost saving.
The company appears to be planning for a quick rebound in the economy.
From a different perspective a different point of view. My son works for US Foods in one of their warehouses. Approximately 3 weeks ago he was on the verge of being laid off when the company made some agreement with a Safeway-Albertsons warehouse. They asked for volunteers for workers to be furloughed at 1/2 pay or keep same pay and hours and go work in the other warehouse. He chose to work in the other warehouse (he does after all have bills). In the agreement they were to keep their same rate of pay and same hours per union agreement. In his case he was supposed to have 40 hours a week. After the 1st week there they had slowed down and he was not getting his 40 hours (loss of revenue). One of the older employees told him they had the orders just not the stuff in the warehouse to keep building the orders. He called me today and said he was going to get cut back to 2 to 3 days a week and maybe 20 hours (big hit!). Bear in mind US Foods in this area mainly supplies restaurants and the like but the other warehouse supplies grocery stores.
From this sight picture things aren't stabilizing, they are continuing to crash. No restaurant bar business kills a lot of peoples lives.
The hospitality industry is reassessing daily. And due to changes in codes many will be gone forever.
My question concerning eminent domain are the new local/state codes that will be forced on the hospitality industry. For our small restaurant, the codes will prevent us to conform and our ability to operate profitably will be lost.
Essentially, the new seating spacing standards set between tables will force our closure. Is the state liable under the just compensation clause of Fifth amendment to make us whole?
The hospitality industry is reassessing daily. And due to changes in codes many will be gone forever.
My question concerning eminent domain are the new local/state codes that will be forced on the hospitality industry. For our small restaurant, the codes will prevent us to conform and our ability to operate profitably will be lost.
Essentially, the new seating spacing standards set between tables will force our closure. Is the state liable under the just compensation clause of Fifth amendment to make us whole?
Very sorry to hear about the challenges.
Eminent domain and 5th Amendment fair compensation is something I never considered as as option.
I hope you are able to find a way forward.
Flagg, Thank you. The restaurant is a Jewel Box.
Badger52
04-22-2020, 16:35
My question concerning eminent domain are the new local/state codes that will be forced on the hospitality industry. For our small restaurant, the codes will prevent us to conform and our ability to operate profitably will be lost.This reminds me of the old Army Reg, with its expanded MACOM reg, with its intermediate command supplement, and the local Fort Snuffy supplement to .... I hope this, in its Draconian x 10 veneer, doesn't crack the jewel box.
This is the kind of shit makes me growl. Is it open season on Good Idea Faeries yet?
Old Dog New Trick
04-22-2020, 16:57
Penn,
Are there exceptions or alterations like putting up barriers (thin walls or plexiglass) cubicles between tables that allow for closer seating but maintain separation?
I would think ‘constitutionally’ that the local health department or state couldn’t regulate capacity beyond the size of an establishment and the number of exits available for fire evacuation.
How the hell is a bar supposed to operate with only three barstools instead of 12? Let’s ask AOC if her tip jar overflow-ith with money?
For our small restaurant, the codes will prevent us to conform and our ability to operate profitably will be lost.
Penn I wish you the best in finding a solution that works.
How the hell is a bar supposed to operate with only three barstools instead of 12? Let’s ask AOC if her tip jar overflow-ith with money
Bar's in our AO, not etched in stone, but the code being talked about is 6' between patrons. Bar are about friendship, community. It's a NG. What is killing us is the complete incompetence. All of the code officials Bldg, health, etc are all, to a man/women in their position due to party affiliation. NJ is the most corrupt state and the official are executing the party line, which from my small world is shut them down=victory 10/3/20.
Edit to add: noticeable impact across our socioeconomic network. Bank will use this opportunity to transition to online asap. The only way we can bank is via ATM or online, no one manning our BOA Finctr, we also noticed that all supermarkets in our AO Wegmans, shop rite, are pushing online ordering and curb pickup, we think that will become the future preferred method of shopping. CVS walking MED line up for quick care. This emergency is pushing us further into the digital, all the big Pharma in Princeton AO, the parking lots are empty, working from home virtually.
Flagg, Thank you. The restaurant is a Jewel Box.
Hey Mate,
This may be useful(or not).
An Aussie Army Officer(Reserves) I worked with once on an ADF project is a really, really smart and cunning fella who works the tech and marketing side of restaurants in Australia, but much of it is universal.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesoutstandingeling/detail/recent-activity/
He has a particular disdain for delivery apps and is gleefully predicting and reporting their parasitic failure.
His biz is helping individual and small chain restaurants battling the big guys.
https://marketing4restaurants.com/free-tools-to-market-a-restaurant/
He’s a big proponent of business level deliveries(or curbside servicing) systems rather than apps.
I don’t have a restaurant or a financial interest, I just like following the writing of people who know their sh!t and like sticking it to the big/bad guys.
I hope it may be of some value in at least seeing what’s happening elsewhere.
Something to consider, all these processing plants having to shut down due to the virus. Milk being dumped, no school kids to drink it. Eggs destroyed no restaurants serving breakfasts all day. We are starting to hear stories in the Midwest about the possibility of hogs having to be destroyed then buried because there is no where to take them. This is going to get really ugly.
PORK INDUSTRY GROUP SAYS HOG FARMERS ARE FACING A CRISIS
WITH MARKET PRICES FOR HOGS DOWN BY 50%, HOG FARMERS ARE LOSING MONEY ON EVERY ANIMAL. SOME WILL SOON DEBATE WHETHER IT’S CHEAPER TO KILL A PIG THAN FEED IT.
https://www.agriculture.com/news/livestock/pork-industry-group-says-hog-farmers-are-facing-a-crisis
Flagg, B52, ODNT, Gypsy, Thx on the kind thoughts. We are working the problem. Today went and visit my old home & restaurant ground in Summit, NJ. The demographics are incredible and we were surprised to see empty spaces, but @ $54 Per sq/ft, the pause button was ringing loudly.
As for the petit boite ours, we have options, redo the lease, and a decor job and pivot to an upscale burger palace. Brioche roll, Duck Fat fries, etc, etc.,. Like the pigs about to be dispatched for the cost of feed, even in the gold coast of NNJ, you can feel the tension due to loss and the inability to act. For us, its another hill, Ruck up!
Edit to add: Flagg, those leads were spot on.
We called this one way back when it was announced.
Workers opt for unemployment as benefits exceed job pay
https://www.timesunion.com/news/article/Workers-opt-for-unemployment-as-benefits-exceed-15213550.php
"ALBANY — Potentially thousands of workers who were laid off from small businesses due to the coronavirus pandemic are declining to return to work because the combined income they are receiving from federal stimulus benefits and New York's unemployment system is more than they made at their jobs.
The fallout also has hindered the ability of small business owners to meet the conditions attached to federal Payment Protection Plan loans, which may be forgiven if the money is used to maintain employee payrolls......"
Ret10Echo
04-24-2020, 06:19
We called this one way back when it was announced.
Workers opt for unemployment as benefits exceed job pay
https://www.timesunion.com/news/article/Workers-opt-for-unemployment-as-benefits-exceed-15213550.php
"ALBANY — Potentially thousands of workers who were laid off from small businesses due to the coronavirus pandemic are declining to return to work because the combined income they are receiving from federal stimulus benefits and New York's unemployment system is more than they made at their jobs.
The fallout also has hindered the ability of small business owners to meet the conditions attached to federal Payment Protection Plan loans, which may be forgiven if the money is used to maintain employee payrolls......"
AOC must be giggling as the "dependent state" is created around her.
We called this one way back when it was announced.
Workers opt for unemployment as benefits exceed job pay
Why,,
Why did they add the 600USD "stiped" to the unemployment pay??
600USD is 15.00 @ hour BONUS on top of the normal unemployment...
:mad::mad::mad:
A friend just announced last night that she is closing her pre-school & daycare center because she can't survive the Isolation. The building owner did agree to cut the lease, but she now has all her employees(12-16 ?) on unemployment.
And now with this Welfare Bonus, she doesn't think she will ever re-open. To pay 20@hr she would need to change 50@hr and parents can't pay that. Parents will stop being 2-paycheck families. One parent will quit and go on welfare.
Business with entry-level workers will be totally driven out, for that matter, so will big-box. This is an effort to totally demolish the US economy.
PS: My friend leans more to the left than the Bern & Pelosi if you're interested
Badger52
04-24-2020, 06:27
We called this one way back when it was announced.Indeed.
Reading Penn's discussion of this idiocy, is this not another Catch-22 of the PPP? Required to hire back, funds valid only for 'x' amount of time, must go back to full staff, must be executed NLT... can PPP used to hire new staff if the old ones are going to stay at home with their new 80" TV?
I'd like to see a picture in such a state of a "Help Wanted: Previous employees have decided to remain at home on their couch with their welfare. Positions available NOW! These are NOT temporary positions. Contact...."
There is a built in remedy in the system, contained in two questions.
The first ask if you sought work, the second ask if you declined work. Answer no to either and you lose access to those benefits. The question is will the state enforce these two conditions?
Considering that state's are in need go capital bailout, NY is 40 Billion in debt, NJ has billions in pension benefit debt it cannot meet. This free money will fracture our constitutional government, eventually leading to implosion if this continues.
Diabetes a horrible conditions if it reaches the extreme stages, only has one remedy, amputation.
The left couldnt destroy America at the ballot box so they took the next logical step and decided to take down our nation at the money machine
Just think - years and years ago when I would mention things like the Cloward Piven Strategy and Overtons Window - people would just laugh at me for being a ridiculously over the top conspiracy nut...
...yet, here we are - on the very brink of Cloward Piven succeeding at its 50 year old goal while everyone sits by and watches the goal posts being moved DAILY
-We live on the razors edge of a near constant social panic that is being used to make it more profitable to stay home and collect a government check than to actually have a job.
-The MPs stand in front of the commissary to make sure you are wearing a mask that WILL NOT actually protect you from the spread of infectious viral processes
-We have senior military offices allowing readiness information to be leaked to the press because they want to have their ships evacuted to make sure nobody gets sick
-We have the DOD asking for people to come out of retirement to "help fight the virus" all the while the folks in Washington State are closing down field hospitals without ever treating a single patient.
-We are calling health care workers from line heroes while the hospital are laying people off because there isnt enough work to go around
bring out your dead
think of the children
no nukes
save the wales
make love not war
its the economy stupid
wear a mask
wash your hands
stay at home
we're all in this together
I feel your pain
hope and change
eat your peas
all is well - remain calm
nothing to see here mother fuckers - move along
game...
...blouses
https://www.you**be.com/watch?v=xfLVxx_lBLU&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR39lr2NGqKhLaIOEU-jqLhIJDuEie7Vt1c0GVHecaNLO7VAw4m7OdOzyQk
Brothers this you tube interview with two doc out on the left coast.. seems to be inline with the data is showing.
Also taking about the secondary impact issues.
whats your take?
Yes there are two parts.
https://www.you**be.com/watch?v=zb6j7o1pLBw
I put the two ** in for I had an issue posting the links
:munchin
Last hard class
04-27-2020, 22:49
I'm reading a lot about meat processing plant closures. Anyone have a handle on this? Real or scaremonger news?
Thanks,
LHC
My son's guard unit got called up to do something at a JBS plant (beef) in N.CO. He's stuck at Sill and doesn't know what they are supposed to do there. Smithfield (pork) in SD closed and I believed it's largely Chinese owned. And several Tyson plants of various meats. Not sure if China has any investment in them but I'd be surprised if they didn't. They say milk is being dumped. My guess is that it's raw milk.
Bottom line is, this is why we need to keep smaller packing plants and dairy processors close to the source. If they haven't already, they will be slaughtering steers and hogs because they can't afford feed them any longer. Hunters with butchering skills should be contacting auction houses to find out where you can snare some fresh meat. Maybe set up co-ops to feed others.
Golf1echo
04-28-2020, 00:16
I'm reading a lot about meat processing plant closures. Anyone have a handle on this? Real or scaremonger news?
Thanks,
LHC
Like everything it’s taking a hit. Meat purchases rose 50% and frozen meat purchases rose 40% at March’s end.
https://www.lanereport.com/124073/2020/04/no-shortage-in-u-s-meat-supply-amid-pandemic/
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/chloesorvino/2020/04/14/fears-of-a-meat-shortage-are-rising-the-reality-is-far-less-worrisome/amp/
What troubles me is all the foreign ownership ie JBS being owned by Brazilian interests and worse yet Smithfield being owned by Chinese interests... I think we already know about chinese interests... they are not ours. Perhaps we need to nationalize critical interests?
Let’s see who was at the helm On September 2013?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smithfield_Foods#2013_purchase_by_Shuanghui_Group
Badger52
04-28-2020, 05:42
They say milk is being dumped. My guess is that it's raw milk.
True. Places that process fluid milk don't get reconfigured on a dime to process other products. Commercial market (restaurants) & school lunch programs down.
Here's (https://www.midwestfarmreport.com/2020/04/01/why-is-this-happening-milk-dumping-explanation-for-non-farm-consumers/) a farm report article on it. Besides the things mentioned above,
You cannot “shut off” a milk cow. At this time of the year, Wisconsin traditionally sees an uptick in the amount of milk produced. We call it “spring flush” because many calves are born in spring, and milk production on farms escalates. Experts didn’t believe the spring flush would be as great this year because of a fairly mild winter – but they didn’t expect Covid-19 at all.
I'm reading a lot about meat processing plant closures. Anyone have a handle on this? Real or scaremonger news?
Thanks,
LHC
It is very real. Article dated 4-15-20
https://www.agriculture.com/news/livestock/pork-industry-group-says-hog-farmers-are-facing-a-crisis
Politicians are calling for payments to be made to livestock producers who are losing their shirts. I feel for everyone financially struggling due to this pandemic, but how many Trillions of dollars that the government does not have will continue to be handed out? This years deficit will be used against Trump in this Falls election even though it was a joint effort in creating it.
Golf1echo
04-28-2020, 07:44
Stepping back for perspective, smaller local butchers are not having the same issues as the massive protein companies. I would dare say you are getting a higher quality product as well. Perhaps this is one of the dynamics that will sort itself out for the better?
Stepping back for perspective, smaller local butchers are not having the same issues as the massive protein companies. I would dare say you are getting a higher quality product as well. Perhaps this is one of the dynamics that will sort itself out for the better?
Jon Jackson and Comfort Farms is a good example of the small boutique agro businessman succeeding while big-box farming struggles.
https://www.facebook.com/comfortfarms2016/
Comfort Farms has an additional asset as a Vet owned & operated Veterans Help Organization.
https://thecookscook.com/columns/good-turns/the-healing-properties-of-food/
Jon talking about his heritage hog operations:
https://www.*******.com/watch?v=5dZxfwZGfUU
What keeps pork at a reasonable cost to the consumer is volume, your local butcher/processor may be a folksy kinda guy and you may think his pork is the best ever but can he handle 19,500 hogs a day? This is just one plant. There is a plant in Canada that can handle 28,0000 hogs per day.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/tyson-foods-suspends-its-largest-pork-plant-amid-iowa-outbreak-n1189566
This plant processes nearly 4% of the nations pork daily. We not only enjoy reasonably priced pork in this country we enjoy high quality pork.
Badger52
04-28-2020, 12:22
Stepping back for perspective, smaller local butchers are not having the same issues as the massive protein companies.True enough. A couple friends (hunt on common property together) who jointly contributed to one of my freezers report that more localized area operations are not having a problem. Some farmers decided early on to convert a little "on the hoof" into cut & wrapped for them & theirs. Stock hauling services in the area don't look like they've slacked off at all based on my early AM observations.
And getting several pounds of fresh bacon from a friend in trade for another couple boxes of his favorite rifle handload.... priceless. :D
Stepping back for perspective, smaller local butchers are not having the same issues as the massive protein companies. I would dare say you are getting a higher quality product as well. Perhaps this is one of the dynamics that will sort itself out for the better?
Have 3 smaller butcher shops by me (that I frequent) and a full fledged farm close by as well getting my business. Local local local! Yes higher prices but great quality.
Golf1echo
04-28-2020, 16:55
I too am looking for more farm to table... I know from having hens the eggs from free range birds are basically a different product from what stores sell.
Cbtengr Understand we do a good job for the most part, I imagine that’s why the chinese bought Smithfield. In the bio on the wiki.... link was surprised how much pork the chinese are eating, more than we are. Take NC a rather large pork and poultry producing state... It’s not with out it’s challenges take the problems with overflowing lagoons over the years. I question the scale, I’d rather Americans exported vs the chinese producing here on our soil. Also I’m Scottish and certainly don’t like to over pay but what I discovered why go into a crowded grocery store and choose between two pieces of meat that are left as well as the fact labeling has changed and unless say I’m buying Angus I really don’t know the country of origin. Instead I can go to an uncrowded shop, plenty of selection, never eaten more Tri-Tip since this started, I know it’s origin, the marbling is amazing, grass fed, packaged for freezing and overall better quality... even I’m happy to pay a few dollars more.
I’ve got another butcher on my list in one of the next towns, an Italian Butcher, their curing meats and making sausages like I’d never had...
We use a local butcher for our meats.
The prices are higher, but so is the quality.
Outstanding steaks, steak mince, bratwursts, and salmon.
10-20% less volume/portion size for the money but double the quality/taste.
Bulk groceries and household products? Yup, we go for volume discounts.
But meat, fish, fruit, and veg.....ultra local.
With two teens at home, since their birth we have avoided buying anything edible with a connection to China.
The dam is starting to spring leaks everywhere.
Free Republic is full of threads with links to counties, local DA's, Sheriffs and individual businesses that are flipping the bird to lock down orders and Governors.
Badger52
04-29-2020, 21:08
I see Gaston County, NC has said "(if you want) Gentlemen, start your engines."
The dam is starting to spring leaks everywhere.
Free Republic is full of threads with links to counties, local DA's, Sheriffs and individual businesses that are flipping the bird to lock down orders and Governors.
That is encouraging, IMO. I have a governor who just extended our banishment until mid-May. :rolleyes:
We have a city that is rebelling and the governor is having a hard time getting them to conform. NMSP now the State AG keep getting flipped off.
Best tv I’ve seen in a while. She has now threatened to send the NMNG there but what are they going to do if the populace just says no. Shoot them.... nah. You have to be able to follow through or the Democratic oppression does not work.
I see Gaston County, NC has said "(if you want) Gentlemen, start your engines."
Got a number of friends in Gaston County mostly in Gastonia and Belmont. One is an EMT.
They are all for it.
Last hard class
04-30-2020, 09:23
Our State & local leadership are power drunk.
Here is the phrase that says it all:
Further Behavioral Modification
LHC
That is encouraging, IMO. I have a governor who just extended our banishment until mid-May. :rolleyes:
Ours until the end of May :rolleyes: however there are some lawsuits brewing, one judge overturned the governor's stay at home order. Another lawmaker is suing and a Church just filed suit.
Ours until the end of May :rolleyes: however there are some lawsuits brewing, one judge overturned the governor's stay at home order. Another lawmaker is suing and a Church just filed suit.
I look forward to seeing more actions like those in the future. They are actually encouraging, at least to me. It seems that a lot of these governors are simply wanting to outdo each other and exercise their perceived powers with impunity over the serfs.
Golf1echo
04-30-2020, 22:50
We have a city that is rebelling and the governor is having a hard time getting them to conform. NMSP now the State AG keep getting flipped off.
Best tv I’ve seen in a while. She has now threatened to send the NMNG there but what are they going to do if the populace just says no. Shoot them.... nah. You have to be able to follow through or the Democratic oppression does not work.
I take it the governor is a little out of touch, though it’s been a while the NATIONAL GUARD is made up of PATRIOTS who swore an oath to the CONSTITUTION...:D:D
Old Dog New Trick
04-30-2020, 23:37
I take it the governor is a little out of touch, though it’s been a while the NATIONAL GUARD is made up of PATRIOTS who swore an oath to the CONSTITUTION...:D:D
One can hope.
Ret10Echo
05-01-2020, 05:25
I take it the governor is a little out of touch, though it’s been a while the NATIONAL GUARD is made up of PATRIOTS who swore an oath to the CONSTITUTION...:D:D
Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) said Thursday that thousands of coronavirus tests obtained by the state from South Korea are currently protected in an undisclosed location by the Maryland National Guard.
Curiouser and Curiouser (https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/495519-maryland-governor-says-coronavirus-tests-acquired-from-south-korea-under)
:munchin
From your link
"...Two weeks later, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) arranged for two charter flights to transport millions of masks and gloves from China to Illinois, intentionally keeping the details of the flights secret from the Trump administration to avoid confiscation..."
The left and the fake news get away with spouting this garbage.
I look forward to seeing more actions like those in the future. They are actually encouraging, at least to me. It seems that a lot of these governors are simply wanting to outdo each other and exercise their perceived powers with impunity over the serfs.
Agree, I hope more do it. If I had unlimited funds I would. Unfortunately my hours were cut due to this shutdown crap so I'm down about 20% of my normal income. And some of these morons are unbelievable.
Golf1echo
05-01-2020, 17:05
Curiouser and Curiouser (https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/495519-maryland-governor-says-coronavirus-tests-acquired-from-south-korea-under)
:munchin
If that were here in Colorado and other States I’m aware of, supplies going to NG are processed through the United Sates Property and Finance Office/ Warehouses. Perhaps the Governor feels he’s more powerful by not being forthright or that he doesn’t trust his constituents? If indeed it’s outside of that scope of operations it is indeed curious, has he declared marshal law?
Last hard class
05-02-2020, 16:27
This week's gem by our fine L.A. mayor:
" No job, should not equal no income"
Hmm...
Probably going to be the Dem battle cry this fall.
LHC
More impact from Asia this time on honey bee's
https://news.wsu.edu/2020/04/06/wsu-scientists-enlist-citizens-hunt-giant-bee-killing-hornet/
ULLMAN, Wash. – More than two inches long, the world’s largest hornet carries a painful, sometimes lethal sting and an appetite for honey bees. It is also the newest insect invader of Washington state.
The Asian giant hornet, Vespa mandarinia, is unmistakable, said Susan Cobey, bee breeder with Washington State University’s Department of Entomology.
“They’re like something out of a monster cartoon with this huge yellow-orange face,” she said.
“It’s a shockingly large hornet,” added Todd Murray, WSU Extension entomologist and invasive species specialist. “It’s a health hazard, and more importantly, a significant predator of honey bees.”
Cobey, Murray and other WSU scientists are bracing for the giant hornet’s emergence this spring. Sighted for the first time in Washington last December, the hornet will start to become active in April. WSU researchers are working with the Washington State Department of Agriculture (WSDA), beekeepers and citizens to find it, study it and help roll back its spread.
Voracious predator
In the first-ever sightings in the U.S., WSDA verified two reports of the Asian giant hornet late last year near Blaine, Wash. and received two probable, but unconfirmed reports, from sites in Custer, Wash.
It is not known how or where the hornet first arrived in North America. Insects are frequently transported in international cargo and are sometimes transported deliberately.
At home in the forests and low mountains of eastern and southeast Asia, the hornet feeds on large insects, including native wasps and bees. In Japan, it devastates the European honey bee, which has no effective defense.
An Asian Hornet held in someone's hand
Asian giant hornets are usually about 1.5 to 2 inches in length, with an orange-yellow head and striped abdomen (Photo courtesy WSDA).
The Asian giant hornet’s life cycle begins in April, when queens emerge from hibernation, feed on plant sap and fruit, and look for an underground dens to build their nests. Once established, colonies grow and send out workers to find food and prey.
Hornets are most destructive in the late summer and early fall, when they are on the hunt for sources of protein to raise next year’s queens. V. mandarinia attack honey bee hives, killing adult bees and devouring bee larvae and pupae, while aggressively defending the occupied colony. Their stings are big and painful, with a potent neurotoxin. Multiple stings can kill humans, even if they are not allergic.
Forever changes
Growers depend on honey bees to pollinate many important northwest crops like apples, blueberries and cherries.
With the threat from hornets, “beekeepers may be reluctant to bring their hives here,” said Island County Extension scientist Tim Lawrence.
“As a new species entering our state, this is the first drop in the bucket,” said Murray. Once established, invasive species like the spotted wing drosophila fruit fly or the zebra mussel make “forever changes” to local crops and ecologies.
“Just like that, it’s forever different,” Murray said. “We need to teach people how to recognize and identify this hornet while populations are small, so that we can eradicate it while we still have a chance.”
Beekeepers, WSU Master Gardener volunteers and other Extension clients are often the first detectors of invasive species. WSU scientists are now spreading awareness of the hornet to citizens and developing a fact sheet to help people identify and safely encounter the insects.
As partners with the Washington Invasive Species Council, they also urge citizens to download the WA Invasives smartphone app for quick reporting of sightings.
“We need to get the word out,” said Lawrence. “We need to get a clear image of what’s happening out there, and have people report it as soon as possible.”
Early detection, faster eradication
Scientists with the WSDA Pest Program are taking the lead on finding, trapping and eradicating the pest. WSDA will begin trapping for queens this spring, with a focus on Whatcom, Skagit, San Juan, and Island counties.
“Our focus is on detection and eradication,” said WSDA entomologist Chris Looney.
close up of hornet stinger
A close-up of an Asian giant hornet’s stinger. The hornet can sting through most beekeeper suits, can deliver nearly seven times the amount of venom as a honey bee, and can sting multiple times (Photo courtesy WSDA).
The agency plans to collaborate with local beekeepers and WSU Extension scientists and entomologists with WSU focusing its efforts on management advice for beekeepers.
Regular beekeeping suits are poor protection against this hornet’s sting, said Looney. WSDA ordered special reinforced suits from China.
“Don’t try to take them out yourself if you see them,” he said. “If you get into them, run away, then call us! It is really important for us to know of every sighting, if we’re going to have any hope of eradication.”
To report an Asian Giant Hornet sighting, contact the Washington State Department of Agriculture Pest Program at 1-800-443-6684, pestprogram@agr.wa.gov or online at agr.wa.gov/hornets.
For questions about protecting honey bees from hornets, contact WSU Extension scientist Tim Lawrence at (360) 639-6061 or timothy.lawrence@wsu.edu.
Badger52
05-03-2020, 09:03
With language even the comment area censor wouldn't allow, John Nolte seems to think (https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/05/03/nolte-they-told-us-lockdowns-were-about-flattening-the-curve-they-lied/) a spade should be called a spade.
:eek:
They Told Us Lockdowns Were About Flattening the Curve. They Lied.
In order to flatten the curve of the coronavirus, the politicians told us we must lockdown and be quarantined while our economy collapsed. They told us we had to flatten the curve to ensure our health care system was not overwhelmed by the sick and dying. They told us that if the health care system was overwhelmed, people would die who could otherwise be saved. They told us losing people who can be saved is intolerable, and America agreed…
And so, for the first time in recorded history, healthy Americans dutifully fulfilled our end of the bargain and went into quarantine by dutifully agreeing to go into lockdown while our economy collapsed.
And now we know we were suckers…
Now we know the politicians lied to us.
This was never about saving the healthcare system from crashing, because we have saved the system from crashing, and most of us are still in these goddamned lockdowns.
They lied.
And there's more at the link above.
:munchin
GratefulCitizen
05-03-2020, 11:37
Between work and commute, I drive across much of Arizona 5 days per week (from the Utah border to Phoenix).
The roads were busier on Friday than I've seen in months.
Looks like people made plans for the lockdown ending May 1, and they're not changing just because the governor extended until May 15.
Convenience stores were busy, traffic was heavy, and an abundance of vehicles were hauling various off-road toys, campers, or were loaded with camping gear.
Coworkers in Flagstaff said the forest is packed with campers, with some campsites having more than a dozen travel trailers parked together.
The people have decided they're done, regardless of any order.
The Navajo nation has been under complete curfew every weekend, so many of the residents just leave during that time.
This may be why Gallup was shut down for supposed "riot control".
Government is learning the meaning of "consent of the governed".
They can't arrest everyone.
Governors would be wise to scale back orders quickly, or risk diminishing their own authority.
Never give an order that you know won't be obeyed.
just do as you are told if you want your guaranteed universal income check
Badger52
05-04-2020, 08:54
Governors would be wise to scale back orders quickly, or risk diminishing their own authority.
Never give an order that you know won't be obeyed.Heh. Around my little province most are way past the middle-finger stage & simply ignoring the extension of HRH's order thru the 26th. Almost as if the original is the only one in effect.
"Your last garbled in transmission. Please re-encrypt in entirety and transmit via Amish courier."
Those who are normally more vulnerable to things in the air are free to run according to their own CARVER matrix, others are gonna go back to making a buck. This last could also be driven by an admitted-by-state glitch in their unemployment comp delivery mechanism. Apparently they tried to marry up with the Dem Congress's over-payment bill and ended up accidentally dumping 2x as much into various US Bank accounts and are busy trying to un-f**k that kluge.
It is not without irony that the agency here that "handles" that is called the Department of Workforce Development, the ones that pay people more than their wage to stay home when the Fed helps out like Pelosi did.
:rolleyes:
It is not without irony that the agency here that "handles" that is called the Department of Workforce Development, the ones that pay people more than their wage to stay home when the Fed helps out like Pelosi did.:rolleyes:
It will be interesting to see just how long they push those payments out. As long as they are, several industries are going to find it hard to employ certain positions necessary to function (waiters, waitresses, etc.) which translates into minimal staff causing all sorts of problems for those businesses.
Badger52
05-04-2020, 09:19
It will be interesting to see just how long they push those payments out. As long as they are, several industries are going to find it hard to employ certain positions necessary to function (waiters, waitresses, etc.) which translates into minimal staff causing all sorts of problems for those businesses.It already is tough, particularly the few genuine restaurants who are caught in the Catch-22 Penn mentioned before.
"Here's your assistance (aka, another loan) Mr. Owner but you have to call back all your staff on the books at the time you shut the door, and have to do it by 'x' date and the window to execute runs out in 'y' days regardless of whether your idiot Governor is keeping you "locked down" or not."
Until the incentive goes away, even well-meaning people (e.g., single moms) are going to do some pretty simple math.
People around here are starting to open up anyway. And a couple restaurants are now cooking to order and doing curbside. Short skirts & roller skates optional.*
…………………./´¯/)
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………./’/…/…./……./¨¯\
……..(‘(…´…´…. ¯~/’…’)
………\……………..’…../
……….”…\………. _.·´
…………\…………..(
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* exception is the really good noodle palace a few blocks away. They were going to continue to do phone-order take-out, which is a big part of their business but after a lot of harassing/inflammatory phone cals RE their national origin just stopped answering the phone.
rsdengler
05-04-2020, 10:12
I feel like I'm in Nazi Germany of Maryland.....I have seen a lot of people out this weekend. I went to a farmers market and it was really busy. I wanted to go to Lowe's last week, but damnit there was a freakin line to get in, looked like an Eastern European storefront in the 70's. I'm like "F this" and went to my local hardware store..just walked right in. I now go to my local deli or farm markets to get any food I need since I don't have to stand in line like an idiot. I'm ready to do a Lady Godiva and ride a white horse down Main Street holding up a sign "Liberty and Freedom"....:D
Ret10Echo
05-04-2020, 10:21
I feel like I'm in Nazi Germany of Maryland.....I have seen a lot of people out this weekend. I went to a farmers market and it was really busy. I wanted to go to Lowe's last week, but damnit there was a freakin line to get in, looked like an Eastern European storefront in the 70's. I'm like "F this" and went to my local hardware store..just walked right in. I now go to my local deli or farm markets to get any food I need since I don't have to stand in line like an idiot. I'm ready to do a Lady Godiva and ride a white horse down Main Street holding up a sign "Liberty and Freedom"....:D
Yup..
Shop local.
Many locations have lists of businesses that are offering curbside pick-up or modified hours. The local TV station website has a county by county breakdown of stores that are offering service and some of the radio stations are allowing local businesses time on-air to pimp their services and draw attention to the fact that they are operating.
I'm ready to do a Lady Godiva and ride a white horse down Main Street holding up a sign "Liberty and Freedom"....:D
Dye your hair purple and splash on some patchouli oil; nobody will bother you - they'll just assume you are out protesting the patriarchy.
Ret10Echo
05-04-2020, 10:34
Dye your hair purple and splash on some patchouli oil; nobody will bother you - they'll just assume you are out protesting the patriarchy.
The wackjobs are pretty PO'd that society stole their masked faces shtick. I think they are now all bathing and going clean shaven "sans mask".
The new sign of resistance is wearing business casual attire, being clean shaven and having a fresh haircut.
rsdengler
05-04-2020, 10:52
Dye your hair purple and splash on some patchouli oil; nobody will bother you - they'll just assume you are out protesting the patriarchy.
Na, I don't want to smell like a stinkin hippy......:p
Conforming to new codes has been fruitful. Originally thought we would lose 3/9 tables. It will only be one as we remedy the requirement by cutting the tables down from 48X24 to 40x24 for the four tops and replace the 24x24 so's with 20" round tops. All the tables meet new social distancing regs. Additionally, we reduced rent by 60% and will revisit that in 2021. Surviving and thriving is the plan. Now to get those seats filled?!
Conforming to new codes has been fruitful. Originally thought we would lose 3/9 tables. It will only be one as we remedy the requirement by cutting the tables down from 48X24 to 40x24 for the four tops and replace the 24x24 so's with 20" round tops. All the tables meet new social distancing regs. Additionally, we reduced rent by 60% and will revisit that in 2021. Surviving and thriving is the plan. Now to get those seats filled?!
Best of luck! Stay healthy.:lifter
Badger52
05-04-2020, 19:42
Conforming to new codes has been fruitful. Originally thought we would lose 3/9 tables. It will only be one as we remedy the requirement by cutting the tables down from 48X24 to 40x24 for the four tops and replace the 24x24 so's with 20" round tops. All the tables meet new social distancing regs. Additionally, we reduced rent by 60% and will revisit that in 2021. Surviving and thriving is the plan. Now to get those seats filled?!That's wonderful, really. Sounds like stuffing 120lbs of Good Idea Faerie gear into a medium ALICE ruck. Now to what's REALLY important:
Anything special planned on the menu for the re-open? Inquiring salivary glands want to know.
:cool:
WarriorDiplomat
05-04-2020, 22:06
Na, I don't want to smell like a stinkin hippy......:p
So smoking reefer is out of the question...how about a T-shirt that says something like Abortion also known as American genocide 60 million and counting WOMANS RIGHTS
Conforming to new codes has been fruitful. Originally thought we would lose 3/9 tables. It will only be one as we remedy the requirement by cutting the tables down from 48X24 to 40x24 for the four tops and replace the 24x24 so's with 20" round tops. All the tables meet new social distancing regs. Additionally, we reduced rent by 60% and will revisit that in 2021. Surviving and thriving is the plan. Now to get those seats filled?!
Great news!
Conforming to new codes has been fruitful. Originally thought we would lose 3/9 tables. It will only be one as we remedy the requirement by cutting the tables down from 48X24 to 40x24 for the four tops and replace the 24x24 so's with 20" round tops. All the tables meet new social distancing regs. Additionally, we reduced rent by 60% and will revisit that in 2021. Surviving and thriving is the plan. Now to get those seats filled?!
Age and experience carried the day. Good Job, Foy!
Conforming to new codes has been fruitful. Originally thought we would lose 3/9 tables. It will only be one as we remedy the requirement by cutting the tables down from 48X24 to 40x24 for the four tops and replace the 24x24 so's with 20" round tops. All the tables meet new social distancing regs. Additionally, we reduced rent by 60% and will revisit that in 2021. Surviving and thriving is the plan. Now to get those seats filled?!
Wishing you the best! If we are ever in your area we will fill one of those tables for you!
rsdengler
05-05-2020, 06:27
Conforming to new codes has been fruitful. Originally thought we would lose 3/9 tables. It will only be one as we remedy the requirement by cutting the tables down from 48X24 to 40x24 for the four tops and replace the 24x24 so's with 20" round tops. All the tables meet new social distancing regs. Additionally, we reduced rent by 60% and will revisit that in 2021. Surviving and thriving is the plan. Now to get those seats filled?!
Good luck, I hope everything works out for you. We do need to support small businesses and reboot this economy.
Old Dog New Trick
05-05-2020, 08:39
Great news Penn! Hope it all works out, sometimes hope is all we have but I think you have more than that, you have a positive attitude...best wishes for a full return to service.
Great news Penn, glad you were able to come up with solutions. I'd visit if I lived closer!
Conforming to new codes has been fruitful.
Penn,
Table sizes?? Are these new legally based building codes or some whim of the petty bourgeoisie proletariat flexing their power?
It's very scary to think that some pencil neck has created an arbitrary "safe zone" by chopping up the furniture.
Proles,, Next week,,
"You will not be served without your personalized Bill Gates Micro Chip Palm Flower"
"Prole, It looks like you Palm Flower is a little pink?? Are you looking for the Sleep Shop?" :mad:
Based on the William F. Nolan and George Clayton Johnson novel published in 1967. The movie depicted a bizarre world in which the ascendant youth society of the turbulent late 1960s (think millennials) had grown to become the globe's dominant social force.
In an attempt to stave off overpopulation, starvation, and poverty, a new society of the young was forged in which the mandatory age of death was 21 years of age.
Citizens of this New World Order had "palm flowers" embedded in their hands which displayed their age and their chronological proximity to "Last Day." On said "Last Day" (their 21st birthday...) they would willingly report for mandatory termination at a local Sleep Shop.
Debated whether this deserved its own thread but it works here.
As the governors of some high-tax and big-spend states begin to scream for federal assistance relating to reopening regarding the China Virus...it might be important to look at how they’ve spent their tax money in the past. Excerpts below - more data at complete article.
Forbes: Why Illinois Is In Trouble – 109,881 Public Employees With More Than $100,000 Paychecks Cost Taxpayers $14B
April 27, 2020 02:12 PM
Forbes-01
Illinois could soon be the first state in history to have its bonds rated as “junk.” Last month, both Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s downgraded Illinois debt to just one notch above junk status.
Last week, the Illinois State Senate President Don Harmon (D-Chicago) wrote a letter to Congress requesting a $41.6 billion bailout. Critics balked.
In many ways, Illinois may have already crossed the Rubicon.
Our analysis at OpenTheBooks.com shows that an Illinois family of four now owes more in unfunded pension liabilities ($76,000) than they earn in household income ($63,585). In a state of 13 million residents, every man, woman, and child owes $19,000 — on an estimated $251 billion pension liability.
Our auditors discovered 110,000 public employees and retirees who earned more than $100,000 last year.
We found tree trimmers in Chicago making $106,663; nurses at state corrections earning up to $277,100; junior college presidents making $491,095; university doctors earning up to $2 million; and 111 small town managers who out-earned every governor of the 50 states ($202,000).
Auditing Illinois’ large pay and pension systems
Here’s a system by system break down with the head counts of employees and retirees who made more than $100,000 per year:
Public schools (35,000) – Last year, nearly 22,000 educators earned a six-figure salary while more than 13,500 retirees received six-figure pensions. Six retired superintendents pocketed $300,000 pensions, including Lawrence Wyllie (Lincoln-Way CHSD 210 – $341,019); Henry Bangser (New Trier Township HSD 203 – $331,489); Gary Catalani (Wheaton-Warrenville Unit SD 200 – $330,015); Laura Murray (Homewood-Flossmoor CHSD 233 – $324,677); and Mary Curley (Hinsdale CCSD 181 – $315,336).
Chicago (22,000) – We calculated that the city paid out $521.2 million in extra pay (overtime, vacation, supplemental, fitness, etc.) above base salaries. Four deputy fire chiefs made between $314,983 and $351,715. Police officers made up to $272,672 and EMT’s up to $270,851. The Chicago Transit Authority (CTA) paid line workers up to $300,135, telephone line workers up to $282,123, and escalator mechanics up to $203,855.
Colleges & universities (16,000) – Bradley Underwood made $2.9 million as the basketball coach at the University of Illinois. Junior college power couple Dale Chapman ($491,095) and Linda Terrill Chapman ($242,070) combined for a $733,000 income at Lewis and Clark Community College. Fady Toufic Charbel ($2 million); Mark Gonzalez ($1.1 million); and Konstantin Slavin ($1 million) are million-dollar doctors at University of Illinois at Chicago (UIC). A UIC pension paying out $524,865 goes to a retired doctor, Tapas Das Gupta.
State of Illinois (15,000) – Six-figure salaries and pension payouts amounted to $1.8 billion last year. Five barbers at Corrections made over $100,000 while eight nurses at Veterans, Human Services and Corrections made between $200,000 and $277,100. Eight troopers and police officers at the Tollway Authority made between$200,000 and $277,000. A court-ordered monitor, Dr. Stewart Pablo, cost taxpayers$327,600 to report on the lack of mental healthcare availability within the prison system — $1 million in total during the past three years.
Cities & villages (8,000) – Small town managers rake in the pay, perks, and pension benefits. These administrators include Michael Ellis (Village of Grayslake – $296,654); Richard Nahrstadt (Village of Northbrook – $290,603); Dane Bragg (Village of Buffalo Grove — $280,000); Patrick Nagle (Village of Rosemont — $279,523); Michael Cassady (Village of Mount Prospect — $278,282); and Reid Ottesen (Village of Palatine – $274,067). The Wheaton Park District conferred a $273,243 pension on retired administrator Elizabeth Kutska.
Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker wants to hike the income tax during a recession. The proposal how change the state constitution to allow for a progressive income tax. Currently, the Illinois income tax is a flat rate tax.
Last week, Illinois State Senate President Don Harmon wrote a letter to Congress asking for a $40 billion bailout. $10 billion in bailout would be used for pension plan solvency.
This week, U.S. Senate Leader Mitch McConnell suggested another path, “I would certainly be in favor of allowing states to use the bankruptcy route.” McConnell specifically mentioned Illinois along with Connecticut, California, and New York.
<snip>
https://www.openthebooks.com/forbes-why-illinois-is-in-trouble--109881-public-employees-with-more-than-100000-paychecks-cost-taxpayers-14b/
Badger52
05-06-2020, 09:14
Debated whether this deserved its own thread but it works here.
Completely appropriate; thanks!
What a financial 3rd-world sewage ditch.
tony z, How else is a state going to attract the brightest and the best if they don't at least offer a living wage? Jeesh give the Illini a break.
I gotta get out of this state. These a****les don't deserve a dime in bail out they are not fiscally responsible at all. Oh let's just raise taxes. This jackass governor is also allowing incremental pay raises previously negotiated to go through for state employees. :mad:
GratefulCitizen
05-08-2020, 10:34
Observations from the shipping industry:
This week 55 out of 300 UPS feeder drivers in the Goodyear seniority list were pushed into package driving.
Things changed dramatically during the week.
-Training of new feeder drivers was suspended, because every available package driver (who might otherwise be pulled into training) is needed.
-Some of the extended centers are getting volume (in terms of piece count) higher than during peak season (Christmas).
-Volume increased in the Goodyear center to a level where not everything was able to be processed on time.
-Non-UPS contractors are being used nationwide, because not enough regular feeder drivers were scheduled.
For next week:
-ALL of the qualified feeder drivers on the Goodyear list are scheduled to work in the feeder department at least Monday and Tuesday.
-Additional rental tractors were brought in, anticipating increased equipment demand exceeding available inventory.
-Extended area backup drivers were scheduled to work, assuming that tractors will be available.
-Extended area drivers were offered work on Sunday, at double-time pay rate.
-UPS is hiring people to deliver packages in their personal vehicles, because there aren't enough UPS drivers or package cars to meet anticipated needs.
This is looking to be as busy, or busier, as it is during Christmas time.
The difference is that UPS employees are currently allowed to schedule vacation, whereas they are not allowed to between Thanksgiving and Christmas.
Not sure how long it will last, but it looks like an explosive economic rebound is about to launch.
Thanks for the informative update Grateful!
The Reaper
05-08-2020, 14:12
With people being locked in at home from brick and mortar shopping, and $1200 per person of found money, this does not surprise me.
GratefulCitizen
05-10-2020, 14:21
Encouraging indication.
Some of it could just be refiners taking advantage of low crude prices.
But it's unlikely they would refine product they couldn't sell.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFUPUS2&f=W
Badger52
05-10-2020, 14:35
Encouraging indication.
Some of it could just be refiners taking advantage of low crude prices.
But it's unlikely they would refine product they couldn't sell.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFUPUS2&f=WThanks. That graph is interesting with seasonal averaging applied too.
Last hard class
05-11-2020, 11:43
Story about Nashville. But the problem is everywhere. It will be interesting to see how local & state gov's handle taxes going forward.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-11/tax-averse-nashville-goes-where-few-other-cash-poor-cities-dare
I live in CA. We should claim bankruptcy. But that would be just a bit disruptive.
LHC
Story about Nashville. But the problem is everywhere. It will be interesting to see how local & state gov's handle taxes going forward.....
LHC
From the linked story...
"...Greenwood said he pays about $75,000 in property taxes for one of his restaurants, Adele’s, a popular brunch spot, and the tax bill could rise by $24,000 as a result.
“These extra expenses are going to be crippling,” he said..."
Kneel down Donkey. Your master wants to beat you to death.