View Full Version : We Are Going To Lose The Coming War With China
We Are Going To Lose The Coming War With China
https://townhall.com/columnists/kurtschlichter/2019/03/21/we-are-going-to-lose-the-coming-war-with-china-n2543332
An interesting article. Our military command has risen through the ranks over the last 18 years fighting just as he says.
"Nations famously tend to always try to fight the last war, and what America is preparing to do today with the newly assertive China is no exception. The problem is our last war was against primitive religious fanatics in the Middle East and China is an emerging superpower with approaching-peer level conventional capabilities and an actual strategy for contesting the United States in all the potential battlespaces – land, sea, air, space and cyber. America is simply not ready for the Pacific war to come. We’re likely to lose.........'
Trapper John
03-21-2019, 05:23
Well worth reading! Thanks for posting! ;) I am spreading this one!
Badger52
03-21-2019, 06:25
Thanks for sharing that one; pretty spot on.
100% agreed
Sil is part of the team designing carrier base long-range UCAV . I have mentioned it in the past about the very successful X-47B landing and take-offs from a carrier, THREE YRS AGO. That project sits on the shelve with ZERO plans for completion.
The vulnerability of our carriers is no surprise; the Navy has been warned about it for years. There are a number of ideas out there to address the issue, but the Navy resists. One good one is to replace the limited numbers of (again) super-expensive, short-range manned aircraft with a bunch more long-range drones. Except that means the Naval aviation community would have to admit the Top Gun era is in the past, and that’s too hard. So they buy a bunch of pricy, shiny manned fighters that can’t get the job done.
No idea what the Chinese war gods plan, but if it's anything like the Korean war tactics of mass suicides ground forces,, WITH even a modest tactical air cover,, the intended target country would be screwed.
As a counterpoint,, what do the Chinese have, or plan to develop, to move masses troops other than trucking them over land?
With Russia to the East, and the Himalaya's to the South,
Their targets are limited to Korea? Viet Nam/Cambodia/Thailand peninsula or Japan and the Philapeans.
I'm not sure they could credibly launch an offensive to Oz?
I didn't mention ICBM's because while they are effective, you can't win a ground war with them.
If you want to conquer, you need feet on the ground.
:munchin
......If you want to conquer, you need feet on the ground.
:munchin
They already have feet on the ground - on the islands they've built.
It will be a quick Naval war with maybe a second or third round - but at the end they will still be standing on the islands.
That will be their objective - clear ownership of the South China Seas all the way down to Malaysia.
Its been a while since I read Sun-Tzu, but according to some of his writings, I'd say we've already lost.
Our country is doing everything the can to elect communists that want to pass laws to allow children to help vote more communists into office.
We shold stop trying to pretend that the Sanders, Cortez, and Kamalamalas of this world want democratic socialism.
Listen to what they are saying. They want a communist state that they are in charge of. Equality - for everyone - spread around evenly - even if you are "unable or unwilling to work" - and even good ole' Dubya was willing to call it like it is when he spoke of "Our governing class"
STOP.SAYING.SOCIALIST.
I believe it was Kaiser Soze that said, "The greatest trick the Devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist."
Well, Keaton always said, "I don't believe in God, but I'm afraid of him." Well folks, I believe in God - and the only thing that scares me are American politicians that are trying to sell me on their progressive ideas of equality and democracy.
The Chinese would be facing a generationally-protracted UW situation by the time the FEBA was Texas and North on the west and Appalachia on the East.
NO KOWTOW
I'm honestly not so sure Americans have the collective stomach for a protracted UW campaign.
We live in a microwave society. People cant even wait for a fucking toaster to warm up their pop tarts anymore. Gotta throw that shit in the microwave for 11 seconds - aint nobody got time for a toaster. "We" as a nation just don't seem to give a shit anymore...
-Juicely Smollett faked an assault to stir up racial tension but who cares, Donald Trump twitter flamed somebody yesterday.
-Documented proof that our national university programs are systemically corrupt but Who cares, its just rich folk doing what rich folk do.
-Politicians want to give illegal aliens and children the right to vote in what is now laughably referred to as "elected leadership" but hey - who cares - we just need to have a discussion.
-Drugs are increasingly being considered as nothing more than a recreational commodity- because, well, why not
We dont have much of a homegrown patriot force anymore. Hell - depending on your point of view, Somalian homesteading up north helped elect one of our congressmen - so resident Americans may not be as "all in" for defending American freedoms as some people think they are..
-Those same Texans that are expected to lead the generationally-protracted UW fight are the same ones that almost put Beta Orourke into a senate seat.
-Those same patriots from Appalachia that are going to lead the generationally-protracted UW fight on our eastern flank are the same ones that gave the racist, misogynist democrats in Virginia a full pass for their bullshit.
-Those same patriots North of Texas that are going to stem the tide of multiculturalism are the same ones taking their kids to child-molestor story hour.
I'm sorry in my cynical national viewpoint is in overdrive - I'm just having a hard time finding a mechanic to re-calibrate my moral equivalency sensors.
Trapper John
03-21-2019, 10:16
I'm honestly not so sure Americans have the collective stomach for a protracted UW campaign.
We live in a microwave society. People cant even wait for a fucking toaster to warm up their pop tarts anymore. Gotta throw that shit in the microwave for 11 seconds - aint nobody got time for a toaster. "We" as a nation just don't seem to give a shit anymore...
-Juicely Smollett faked an assault to stir up racial tension but who cares, Donald Trump twitter flamed somebody yesterday.
-Documented proof that our national university programs are systemically corrupt but Who cares, its just rich folk doing what rich folk do.
-Politicians want to give illegal aliens and children the right to vote in what is now laughably referred to as "elected leadership" but hey - who cares - we just need to have a discussion.
-Drugs are increasingly being considered as nothing more than a recreational commodity- because, well, why not
We dont have much of a homegrown patriot force anymore. Hell - depending on your point of view, Somalian homesteading up north helped elect one of our congressmen - so resident Americans may not be as "all in" for defending American freedoms as some people think they are..
-Those same Texans that are expected to lead the generationally-protracted UW fight are the same ones that almost put Beta Orourke into a senate seat.
-Those same patriots from Appalachia that are going to lead the generationally-protracted UW fight on our eastern flank are the same ones that gave the racist, misogynist democrats in Virginia a full pass for their bullshit.
-Those same patriots North of Texas that are going to stem the tide of multiculturalism are the same ones taking their kids to child-molestor story hour.
I'm sorry in my cynical national viewpoint is in overdrive - I'm just having a hard time finding a mechanic to re-calibrate my moral equivalency sensors.
I generally agree with you but with a somewhat more optimistic if not naïve point of view. Since my stroke, however, my sensors and tolerance level have been seriously recalibrated. Time to reassess the situation and reset priorities. :eek:
I'm honestly not so sure Americans have the collective stomach for a protracted UW campaign.
We live in a microwave society. People cant even wait for a fucking toaster to warm up their pop tarts anymore. Gotta throw that shit in the microwave for 11 seconds - aint nobody got time for a toaster. "We" as a nation just don't seem to give a shit anymore...
-Juicely Smollett faked an assault to stir up racial tension but who cares, Donald Trump twitter flamed somebody yesterday.
-Documented proof that our national university programs are systemically corrupt but Who cares, its just rich folk doing what rich folk do.
-Politicians want to give illegal aliens and children the right to vote in what is now laughably referred to as "elected leadership" but hey - who cares - we just need to have a discussion.
-Drugs are increasingly being considered as nothing more than a recreational commodity- because, well, why not
We dont have much of a homegrown patriot force anymore. Hell - depending on your point of view, Somalian homesteading up north helped elect one of our congressmen - so resident Americans may not be as "all in" for defending American freedoms as some people think they are..
-Those same Texans that are expected to lead the generationally-protracted UW fight are the same ones that almost put Beta Orourke into a senate seat.
-Those same patriots from Appalachia that are going to lead the generationally-protracted UW fight on our eastern flank are the same ones that gave the racist, misogynist democrats in Virginia a full pass for their bullshit.
-Those same patriots North of Texas that are going to stem the tide of multiculturalism are the same ones taking their kids to child-molestor story hour.
I'm sorry in my cynical national viewpoint is in overdrive - I'm just having a hard time finding a mechanic to re-calibrate my moral equivalency sensors.
You're right on the money up until the 30-30's come out da closet.
Streck-Fu
03-21-2019, 11:20
Our military command has risen through the ranks over the last 18 years fighting just as he says.
Isn't that true throughout military history?
I agree that China has been rising but is the claim of being "near-peer" a reality? The missile advertised as a carrier killer still has no been tested against mobile ships.
It seems that China is still a volume fighter. They will overwhelm opponents fighting near their territory. Any such conflict with them will be fought in the east and South China seas.
Can we sustain multiple battles when then challenge our F-22s and F--35s with more aircraft than we have missiles? It seems to me, that is the issue.
Is the United States on the verge of a war with China? Do we have issues? More than likely we do and it's fine to point them out. But I am not going to lose any sleep over going to war with China.
Is the United States on the verge of a war with China? Do we have issues? More than likely we do and it's fine to point them out. But I am not going to lose any sleep over going to war with China.
Me, neither.
It's not as if they have anything in their nucular arsenal with a payload of over won ton; their ground troops break for chow every hour on the hour, as well.
"Nations famously tend to always try to fight the last war..."
On the flip-side, wasn't China's last real war against us almost 70 years ago? They march real purdy, though.
I’ve got an article for US Army Mad Scientist Initiative that covers this.
While I appreciate the linked article and it raises some valid points, I don’t see a clear vision of Chinese execution.
The author mentions strategy in passing, when it needs to be covered in depth.
China actually has a strategy, the US does not.
What I posit is that China’s One Belt One Road initiative could be expanded and iterated to include One Platform, One Network.
US based FAANG+(Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google, +) have far more global reach that China’s BAT(Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent).
But there are key differences.
FAANG+ are at each others’ throats and in perpetual battle with the US government.
BAT and the Chinese government together are far more interoperable acting in a combined arms like fashion.
China’s BAT only has 200+ million users outside China, but total dominance within it.
China merely needs to expand it’s digital reach outside China using dept trap diplomacy, coercion, influence, etc on top of One Belt, One Road to expand it’s digital footprint.
Moore’s Law
Metcalfe’s Law
Zipf’s Law
Applied to geopolitics.
Geodigital strategy.
In my 2030 scenario I have China “acquiring” a Taiwan like proxy thru the application of unconventional and information warfare below the threshold of conventional warfare response.
My 2030 China scenario includes an experimental US Army SF OD-X built to focus on network effects based thinking to counter opposition hybrid networks.
If anyone is interested in reading a draft and offering feedback, I’d be happy to share, I have to submit it to US Army Mad Scentist Initiative by April 1st.
I’ve got an article for US Army Mad Scientist Initiative that covers this.
While I appreciate the linked article and it raises some valid points, I don’t see a clear vision of Chinese execution.
The author mentions strategy in passing, when it needs to be covered in depth.
China actually has a strategy, the US does not.
What I posit is that China’s One Belt One Road initiative could be expanded and iterated to include One Platform, One Network.
US based FAANG+(Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google, +) have far more global reach that China’s BAT(Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent).
But there are key differences.
FAANG+ are at each others’ throats and in perpetual battle with the US government.
BAT and the Chinese government together are far more interoperable acting in a combined arms like fashion.
China’s BAT only has 200+ million users outside China, but total dominance within it.
China merely needs to expand it’s digital reach outside China using dept trap diplomacy, coercion, influence, etc on top of One Belt, One Road to expand it’s digital footprint.
Moore’s Law
Metcalfe’s Law
Zipf’s Law
Applied to geopolitics.
Geodigital strategy.
In my 2030 scenario I have China “acquiring” a Taiwan like proxy thru the application of unconventional and information warfare below the threshold of conventional warfare response.
My 2030 China scenario includes an experimental US Army SF OD-X built to focus on network effects based thinking to counter opposition hybrid networks.
If anyone is interested in reading a draft and offering feedback, I’d be happy to share, I have to submit it to US Army Mad Scentist Initiative by April 1st.
In my 2030 scenario, I have them with zero IT because their capabilities were demolished. From the wok to the fire.
WarriorDiplomat
03-21-2019, 22:47
China has quietly crept their presence quietly exploiting the only thing they need to field a world class military capable of fighting a peer......energy.
They have crept into our countries fabric and economy slowly but surely thanks to the Clintons and Obama/Hillary today are deeply imbedded in our economy and in the free world moreso today than ever. Whether it takes 10 yrs or 1000 the Chinese will be more than happy to step in and take over at our weakest moment.
The Chinese are a patient people with the stamina and smarts to watch our nation deteriorate at combat speed.....our society is struggling idealistically with our own citizens our newest young adults and elected officials doing the OPB for our enemies.....slowly creating the conditions for a enemy victory.
The American ego is what they count on the same thing that has deteriorated our military and our politics the disbelief that we are vulnerable.....not taking the Chinese as serious as Trump does is our weakness....they will creep 1 inch a year to achieve their goal....they don't need to terrorize us they just need to wait and IMO continue to cultivate dissent and champion socialism.
Americans are barely on our side....the Chinese will wait as we deteriorate by the death of a thousand cuts to our nation and that is scary.....they can pick and choose when and how
The article is not wrong I just don't see the Chinese seeking to wage a war with us as we see war but more along the lines of their own philosophy and culture in the spirit of Sun Tzu.....America doesn't have the patience, focus or stamina to win a protracted UW in the way the Chinese can.
Not that the Worlds Intelligence agencies did not already know but the emperor has no clothes the transparent swampy corruption in our own politics playing out every night on our infotainment networks....why would the Chinese want to field a military to wage war against us they have too many options.....they just need a peacetime occupation force
Trapper John
03-22-2019, 07:48
From Warrior Diplomat The article is not wrong I just don't see the Chinese seeking to wage a war with us as we see war but more along the lines of their own philosophy and culture in the spirit of Sun Tzu.....America doesn't have the patience, focus or stamina to win a protracted UW in the way the Chinese can.
Not that the Worlds Intelligence agencies did not already know but the emperor has no clothes the transparent swampy corruption in our own politics playing out every night on our infotainment networks....why would the Chinese want to field a military to wage war against us they have too many options.....they just need a peacetime occupation force
EXACTLY If the current culture trend continues unabated,The Chinese simply co-opt America without a shot being fired.
Old Dog New Trick
03-22-2019, 08:16
From Warrior Diplomat
EXACTLY If the current culture trend continues unabated,The Chinese simply co-opt America without a shot being fired.
It’s not just America. Their expansion into SE Asia over the last 30-years (accelerated under Obama/Kerry) has undermined U.S. influence greatly.
As Trump recently said the U.S. has built the China we see today, the same can be said of the China that has built Bangkok/Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam and rapidly moving west into SW Asia. The vertical and horizontal construction projects I saw with my own eyes during the 90s and early 2000s in rural SEA all had Chinese flags on it.
Obama and before that Clinton and the Bushes’ sold America to the highest bidder. New York (Manhattan) and Wall Street was sold long ago to China.
Everything is ‘smoke and mirrors’ even the new turn of events with DPRK. If China flinched Kim Jung Un would be groveling at the feet of the U.S. to end sanctions.
All JMHO...except for the infrastructure building in SEA I saw that in the way-back-machine personally.
Trapper John
03-22-2019, 10:23
ODNT: Whereas you are correct, IMHO China is essentially following a neo-colonial policy. This is entirely dependent upon a strong Chinese economy and a Chinese military capable of projecting power. Sound familiar??
The weak point in their strategy is maintenance of a strong economy that is centrally planned and dependent upon maintaining a skewed trade policy with the US. As it appears may be happening, the Trump driven changes to the US/China trade policy may significantly and materially undermine China's ability to execute their form of neocolonialism.
Success with the Trump policy does carry with it a significant downside risk however. Recall the reasons that Japan attacked us at Pearl Harbor! All the more reason to stay the course with a military buildup, IMHO. YMMV ;)
Dean Jarvis
03-22-2019, 15:21
I believe all China wants to do is be strong enough militarily to enforce their will to take back Taiwan. I don't see any evidence that China has ever had a desire for world domination. It's always been about protecting their little part of the globe.
I believe the real clear and present danger to the United States is from within.
I believe all China wants to do is be strong enough militarily to enforce their will to take back Taiwan. I don't see any evidence that China has ever had a desire for world domination. It's always been about protecting their little part of the globe.
I believe the real clear and present danger to the United States is from within.
Agreed,
The muzzies will be a problem for the Earth for-eva,, but they are easy to spot and deal with.
While SJW's are gender/race/species fluid ankle biters and will seek the low-tide on all continents. :mad:
Badger52
03-22-2019, 16:34
Agreed,
The muzzies will be a problem for the Earth for-eva,, but they are easy to spot and deal with.
While SJW's are gender/race/species fluid ankle biters and will seek the low-tide on all continents. :mad:Keep in mind the latter are the enablers for the former - even when they acknowledge that they'll be among those eaten.
WarriorDiplomat
03-22-2019, 19:14
Agreed,
The muzzies will be a problem for the Earth for-eva,, but they are easy to spot and deal with.
While SJW's are gender/race/species fluid ankle biters and will seek the low-tide on all continents. :mad:
SJW's in China get sent to re-education centers....
I just don't see the Chinese seeking to wage a war with us as we see war but more along the lines of their own philosophy and culture in the spirit of Sun Tzu.....America doesn't have the patience, focus or stamina to win a protracted UW in the way the Chinese can.
Ten 4
That's primarily why we Americans considered to be anything from "quaint" to "loco" for trying to convince others (with whom they ostensibly consider a like mindset) that times are favorable to lay, at least, LOCs for application against a common enemy (read China); these efforts are generally assumed to be revolutionary in character & intent and heads wag/tongues click when they're referenced.
Lol, the arrogance inherent in any "American's" belief that the natural cycle of upheaval won't spin to a stop at BANKRUPT at some juncture sooner than later is in my esteem closer to "loco" than quaint.
Patriot007
03-23-2019, 18:03
The Chinese are a patient people with the stamina and smarts to watch our nation deteriorate at combat speed.....
This. It is easy for us to forget that the entire history of the USA is but a drop in the bucket compared to China's ~3000k years. There is no rush to fight us on near equal terms.
Little Fish
06-08-2019, 05:24
China is pouring money and aid into all the Pacific islands historically under the auspices of Australia.
It is a worrying situation.
As well last week two of our chopper pilots were lasered and temporarily blinded by so called Chinese "fishing vessels" in international waters while one if our navy destroyers was closely followed.
Totally agree with Box's great comments made earlier in this thread.
Small Wars Journal published my US Army Mad Scientist 2030 scenario on China:
https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/distraction-application-one-platform-one-networkopon-geodigital-strategy
Unfortunately, it’s too tech/jargon heavy, but it’s written a bit like an AAR, with fictional lessons learned, recommendations, and summary at the end.
And inclusion of fictional OD-X, counter network operations by US Army SF.
It covers China(Donovia) absorbing Taiwan(Otso) with barely a shot fired.
China has been operating beneath the public detection threshold, obviating the need for an adversary response.
More Boa Constrictor, less Viper.
More Sun Tzu, less Clausewitz.
More competition, less conflict.
“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”
China has the critical advantage of of political-military-commercial fusion.
https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-china-blog-48552907
WeChat(owned by Tencent of Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, Huawei “BATH”) has become an existential need for every one of its citizen-users.
Will China successfully export BATH to developing world countries creating a digital economic platform/network to compete with and supersede the US Dollar based global economy?
Recent efforts by the US to kneecap Huawei across Five Eyes/NATO, while thus far less successful, are akin to the US expending a lot of political capital disrupting the proposed Soviet energy pipeline to NATO customers right after President Reagan was elected.
The Reagan Administration disrupted Soviet income streams, I reckon we have to compete/defeat Chinese political-military-commercial fused Metcalfe’s Law fuelled network effects.
Or we risk coming in 2nd place.
And when Zipf’s Law applies, 2nd place is distant and permanent.
In my 2030 scenario, I have them with zero IT because their capabilities were demolished. From the wok to the fire.
I hear ya.
But how probable/likely is direct conflict between China/US?
The economic interdependence between China/US is near existential, unlike the nearly complete economic system independence between Soviets/US.
Even if conflict between China/US was held to conventional weapons it would be the global economic rough equivalent of a hand grenade fight inside a phone booth.
‘Hot competition” instead of Cold War?
Elsa B Kania is an academic worth following on the China problem:
https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/June%207%20Hearing_Panel%201_Elsa%20Kania_Chinese% 20Military%20Innovation%20in%20Artificial%20Intell igence.pdf
Little Fish
06-08-2019, 23:50
Elsa B Kania is an academic worth following on the China problem:
https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/June%207%20Hearing_Panel%201_Elsa%20Kania_Chinese% 20Military%20Innovation%20in%20Artificial%20Intell igence.pdf
Great piece of research
LongWire
06-09-2019, 09:16
Small Wars Journal published my US Army Mad Scientist 2030 scenario on China:
https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/distraction-application-one-platform-one-networkopon-geodigital-strategy
Nice work Chris!
Trapper John
06-09-2019, 09:47
Small Wars Journal published my US Army Mad Scientist 2030 scenario on China:
https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/distraction-application-one-platform-one-networkopon-geodigital-strategy
Unfortunately, it’s too tech/jargon heavy, but it’s written a bit like an AAR, with fictional lessons learned, recommendations, and summary at the end.
And inclusion of fictional OD-X, counter network operations by US Army SF.
It covers China(Donovia) absorbing Taiwan(Otso) with barely a shot fired.
China has been operating beneath the public detection threshold, obviating the need for an adversary response.
More Boa Constrictor, less Viper.
More Sun Tzu, less Clausewitz.
More competition, less conflict.
“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”
China has the critical advantage of of political-military-commercial fusion.
https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-china-blog-48552907
WeChat(owned by Tencent of Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, Huawei “BATH”) has become an existential need for every one of its citizen-users.
Will China successfully export BATH to developing world countries creating a digital economic platform/network to compete with and supersede the US Dollar based global economy?
Recent efforts by the US to kneecap Huawei across Five Eyes/NATO, while thus far less successful, are akin to the US expending a lot of political capital disrupting the proposed Soviet energy pipeline to NATO customers right after President Reagan was elected.
The Reagan Administration disrupted Soviet income streams, I reckon we have to compete/defeat Chinese political-military-commercial fused Metcalfe’s Law fuelled network effects.
Or we risk coming in 2nd place.
And when Zipf’s Law applies, 2nd place is distant and permanent.
:lifter Finest Kind!
Sine Pari
mojaveman
06-11-2019, 13:30
...their ground troops break for chow every hour on the hour, as well.
Recently spent six months in China and got a pretty good look at the male population to include some of the military. They're not aggressive competitive like western men are and they lack initiative. In a time of conflict they would probably make good cooks, laundry men and logistic coolies but not great warriors.
Recently spent six months in China and got a pretty good look at the male population to include some of the military. They're not aggressive competitive like western men are and they lack initiative. In a time of conflict they would probably make good cooks, laundry men and logistic coolies but not great warriors.
The Chinese seem to agree with your observation:
‘Masculinity crisis’ in China leads parents to enroll boys in Boot Camp (https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/cnainsider/masculinity-crisis-china-leads-parents-enrol-boys-boot-camp-10869716)
Badger52
06-11-2019, 19:43
The Chinese seem to agree with your observation:
‘Masculinity crisis’ in China leads parents to enroll boys in Boot Camp (https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/cnainsider/masculinity-crisis-china-leads-parents-enrol-boys-boot-camp-10869716)Heh, I can think of many environs in this country that could benefit from such a thing.
But hey, don't mention this to the alphabet agencies with their tenterhooks into the MICO - reduced threat? They will drive you out of town, tarred & feathered - don't mess with that rice bowl.
:munchin
Golf1echo
06-12-2019, 07:10
Its been a while since I read Sun-Tzu, but according to some of his writings, I'd say we've already lost.
What is it that we would win? Land...no nation in history has conquered, maintained, and administered such a large area as our two countries. The population...inherent their massive population and the issues that go with it. Economic Power... go to your tool shed, your children’s toy box or any closet in your house and look at where most of the items there are made.
Many here understand chinas reach elsewhere in the world, it’s successes and it’s failures.
A Microwave Society is as good of a description as any as to our current perspective... For us, a country heading towards 300 years of existence, I think of perspective and one story from the pages of history may be a good example of chinas perspective:
http://afe.easia.columbia.edu/special/china_1000ce_mingvoyages.htm
China will ebb and flow based on what happens in china, I suspect they have plenty of pressures of their own. When they have a presence in practically every life around the world, can send their students to the best universities, can place people in most any corporation, can take development and product from anywhere, dictate most markets, etc... what would be their point to an armed conflict...
My point, China’s problem is China, it always has been and always will be.
Streck-Fu
06-17-2019, 09:53
How good is Chinese tech, really, if they can't effectively reverse engineer tech? How good can their weapons systems be?
LINK (https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/jordan-military-tries-to-sell-off-knock-off-chines-458706/)
The Royal Jordanian Army and Air Force (RJAF) is attempting to sell more than two dozen aircraft, including six recently delivered Rainbow CH-4B unmanned air vehicles (UAV) built by China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC).
.........
However, its six CH-4B UAVs were reportedly delivered about two years ago. The RCAF told Shepard Media in November 2018 it was not happy with the aircraft’s performance and was looking to retire them.
CASC has been accused of copying the design of General Atomics Aeronautical Systems' MQ-9 Reaper UAV, due to the CH-4B’s close resemblance. Nonetheless, many countries in the Middle East have chosen to buy what critics call “knock-off” Chinese UAVs because the Missile Technology Control Regime restricts the USA to exporting its large, fast-moving UAVs to only its closest allies.
What is it that we would win? Land...no nation in history has conquered, maintained, and administered such a large area as our two countries. The population...inherent their massive population and the issues that go with it. Economic Power... go to your tool shed, your children’s toy box or any closet in your house and look at where most of the items there are made.
Many here understand chinas reach elsewhere in the world, it’s successes and it’s failures.
A Microwave Society is as good of a description as any as to our current perspective... For us, a country heading towards 300 years of existence, I think of perspective and one story from the pages of history may be a good example of chinas perspective:
http://afe.easia.columbia.edu/special/china_1000ce_mingvoyages.htm
China will ebb and flow based on what happens in china, I suspect they have plenty of pressures of their own. When they have a presence in practically every life around the world, can send their students to the best universities, can place people in most any corporation, can take development and product from anywhere, dictate most markets, etc... what would be their point to an armed conflict...
My point, China’s problem is China, it always has been and always will be.
Solid post.
I agree.
Chinese leadership in its current CCP form will always have the Tiananmen Square monkey on its back and the need to keep the people happy pursuing their Chinese versions of the American Dream.
The recent Hong Kong protests against extradition law with China were staggering. As many as a quarter of Hong Kongers participated in the wake of Tiananmen 30th.
My guess is CCP will run China with an eye towards Net Promoter Score(NPS) like a corporation gauging customer satisfaction to remain in business.
My concern is China facing an inevitable economic hiccup(it can only artificially manage internal markets so long) resulting in leadership externalising rising anger akin to Argentina in the Falklands circa 1982 but with a 1983 Grenada end-state.
Personally, I think the best response to China should involve increased optimisation for competition over conflict.
I think the US has conflict(warfighting) right, although there’s always room for improvement.
But China’s non kinetic integrated CCP / PLA / .CA “combined arms competition” needs a response that we are not currently deploying.
How good is Chinese tech, really, if they can't effectively reverse engineer tech? How good can their weapons systems be?
LINK (https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/jordan-military-tries-to-sell-off-knock-off-chines-458706/)
While they might look the same on the outside, it’s what’s inside that matters.
DJI is building extremely impressive small form factor COTS drones.
China will move up the capability food chain.
Shenzhen hardware prototyping is faster than a Formula 1 pitstop.
And with AI and quantum, what’s in open source is showing China making some serious advances.
Hopefully DARPA/NSA/NRO/In-Q-Tel have a deck of wildcards up their sleeves.
Maybe it’s another Bomber/Missile Gap with the US actually light years ahead, but why chance it when China has the cash, the raw human horsepower, and the national will to become a global power.
China’s no Soviet Russia, that’s for sure.
How good is Chinese tech, really, if they can't effectively reverse engineer tech? How good can their weapons systems be?
LINK (https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/jordan-military-tries-to-sell-off-knock-off-chines-458706/)
For consideration:
It won't matter if theirs is only 75% as good as ours when they have quadruple as many.
Little Fish
06-18-2019, 17:49
Greetings people. I love reading your posts.
I think there needs to be a clear definition of "war" and would love if one of you eloquent gentlemen would try to give me one.
In my country most of the university students are paid up Chinese whose parents have bought them housing in Sydney and Melbourne. This has caused a housing crisis.
The stupidity goes further. As well as the Chinese owning massive tracts of land and some of our water, we have leased the Port of Darwin to them for 99 years. Darwin is where your 19000 Marines are stationed.
Awfully confusing and confronting.
BTW The USS WASP is in Sydney at present.
We are inextricably interwoven.