Range estimation of Russian cruise missiles from Venuzuela

[Volunteer]

For those who were unaware of my presence here, I introduced myself 4 years ago on: 9/9/2014:

http://professionalsoldiers.com/forums/search.php?searchid=4340721&pp=35&page=2

======

Sirs,

I'm sharing this information I stumbled across, and wondering if any of you care to comment on either validity or plausibility on the information presented, as to a CONUS threat.

V/R,
Volunteer

Quoted from the original source:
"The Tu-160 strategic bomber can carry six MKB Raduga Kh-55/101/102 cruise missiles, which have range estimates between 4,500-5,500km or more. They could pretty much launch after take off from this potential airfield. US Early Warning system weaker from the south."

Original information source:
https://twitter.com/intellipus/status/1073251239360638976

[Joker]

Post an intro in the Introduction thread.

[WarriorDiplomat]

Post an intro in the Introduction thread.

I wonder if their is a way for the threads to allow for posting only when the poster has input an intro

[Pete]

Dude has been flying low under the Radar. 37 posts since 7/13/2015 with no intro and the first time he's been popped.

Ok, Volunteer, you're on the Radar now so post an intro in the proper thread

[Volunteer]

Dude has been flying low under the Radar. 37 posts since 7/13/2015 with no intro and the first time he's been popped.

Ok, Volunteer, you're on the Radar now so post an intro in the proper thread

Sir,

I have followed the rules. I introduced myself back on 9/9/2014.

Here's the direct link to my introduction:

http://professionalsoldiers.com/forums/search.php?searchid=4340721&pp=35&page=2

V/R
Volunteer

[Volunteer]

Post an intro in the Introduction thread.

I did, Joker, 4 years ago.

I edited my post on this topic to include a direct link to my introduction for you to review.

V/R
Volunteer

[Volunteer]

I wonder if their is a way for the threads to allow for posting only when the poster has input an intro

Hello Sir.

I am following the rules. Refer to my other replies in this thread that point to the direct link to my first post, in the Introductions section. There are no posts from me prior to my introduction post.

V/R
Volunteer

[Joker]

I did, Joker, 4 years ago.

I edited my post on this topic to include a direct link to my introduction for you to review.

V/R
Volunteer

When I saw this earlier on my phone it showed you with 1 post. On my laptop you have 40 (now) and I did see your intro. You are correct.

[lindy]

======

Sirs,

I'm sharing this information I stumbled across, and wondering if any of you care to comment on either validity or plausibility on the information presented, as to a CONUS threat.

V/R,
Volunteer

Quoted from the original source:
"The Tu-160 strategic bomber can carry six MKB Raduga Kh-55/101/102 cruise missiles, which have range estimates between 4,500-5,500km or more. They could pretty much launch after take off from this potential airfield. US Early Warning system weaker from the south."



Now do the SS-N-X-30 on the Dolgorukiy-class SSBN.

This is fun! I could do this stuff for days...5 of ‘em, 40 hrs a week, 26 pay periods year to be exact. :D

[Volunteer]

Now do the SS-N-X-30 on the Dolgorukiy-class SSBN.

This is fun! I could do this stuff for days...5 of ‘em, 40 hrs a week, 26 pay periods year to be exact. :D

Hello Lindy.

I don't pretend to understand the military stuff well, I'm a civilian.
The Center fro Strategic and Budgetary Assessment in DC just posted the attached graphic which *might* answer your question, or raise more of them.
The description from the link says this:
"Newest @CSBA_ report showing Russia's counter-intervention capabilities (#A2AD). It covers .@NATO’s eastern front-line states and extend into central Europe, enabling Russian forces to significantly degrade a potential NATO response."

Looks like the russians are planning on being a long-term pain in the ass.

V/R
Volunteer

[tonyz]

And then there’s this...complete article at link with video.

Russia thumbs its nose at America by sharing VIDEO of two nuclear-capable Tu-160 bombers flying over the Caribbean sea escorted by Venezuelan fighter jets for a 10-hour training mission

Two Tu-160 fighter jets, designated as 'Blackjacks' by NATO, took part in a training session with Venezuelan Air Force Wednesday

The planes, known in Russia as 'White Swans,' arrived in Venezuela Monday, sparking fury in Washington DC

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo slammed the joint exercise as 'two corrupt governments squandering public funds'

On the day of the training mission, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro accused the Trump administration of plotting to assassinate him

By ASSOCIATED PRESS and SNEJANA FARBEROV FOR DAILYMAIL.COM
PUBLISHED: 15:41 EST, 12 December 2018 | UPDATED: 15:46 EST, 14 December 2018

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6489371/Russian-nuclear-capable-bombers-fly-Caribbean-Sea.html

Two of Russia's nuclear-capable Tu-160 strategic bombers designated as 'Blackjacks' by NATO have flown over the Caribbean sea during a 10-hour training mission with the Venezuelan Air Force amid escalating tensions between Moscow and Washington DC, coupled with allegations of meddling in Caracas.

The flight of the jets was recorded on video, which Russia's Ministry of Defense then proudly shared on *******.

The planes, known in Russia as 'White Swans', arrived at Maiquetia airport outside Caracas on Monday after completing a 6,200-mile journey.

The Russian Defense Ministry said they were escorted by Venezuelan Su-30 and F-16 fighter jets during part of the training mission on Wednesday to practice interaction. It's unknown if the planes were carrying missiles, or how long they would stay in Venezuela.

The Tu-160 is capable of carrying conventional or nuclear-tipped cruise missiles with a range of 3,410 miles and flying over 7,500 miles without refueling.

One of the videos released by the Russian Ministry of Defense to RT.comshows Tu-160 pilots inside the cockpit during the flight.

Another video depicts the fighter jets taking off from Maiquetia at night and then landing at the airport the following morning.

The Russian bombers' deployment has infuriated Washington, where US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo characterized the joint training session as 'two corrupt governments squandering public funds, and squelching liberty and freedom while their people suffer.'

The Kremlin on Tuesday rejected Pompeo's criticism, saying it was 'highly undiplomatic' and 'completely inappropriate.'

'As for the idea that we are squandering money, we do not agree. It's not really appropriate for a country half of whose defense budget could feed the whole of Africa to be making such statements,' spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.

Venezuelan Foreign Minister Jorge Arreaza called Pompeo's comments 'not only disrespectful, but cynical,' highlighting the number of military bases the United States owns abroad.

'It's strange the U.S. government questions our right to cooperate on defense and security with other countries, when @realDonaldTrump publicly threatens us with a military invasion,' Arreaza tweeted.

[lindy]

Hello Lindy.

I don't pretend to understand the military stuff well, I'm a civilian.

Looks like the russians are planning on being a long-term pain in the ass.

V/R
Volunteer

Just busting your chops. This site is probably a better reference.

https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/ss-n-32-bulava/

Also has tech specs about the Air Launched Cruise Missiles (ALCM).

I don’t think the USG is concerned the BJs are in South America...as long as they know what they’re up to. Putin, IMO, is just trying to tell the world that he’s still relevant.

[WarriorDiplomat]

Hello Lindy.

I don't pretend to understand the military stuff well, I'm a civilian.
The Center fro Strategic and Budgetary Assessment in DC just posted the attached graphic which *might* answer your question, or raise more of them.
The description from the link says this:
"Newest @CSBA_ report showing Russia's counter-intervention capabilities (#A2AD). It covers .@NATO’s eastern front-line states and extend into central Europe, enabling Russian forces to significantly degrade a potential NATO response."

Looks like the russians are planning on being a long-term pain in the ass.

V/R
Volunteer

Well the long and short of yes it is a threat but guaranteed this is but one of many and that is the reality of the geo-political world that liberal-leftist don't seem to understand and certainly view it much different than conservatives do.

The Russians will be a pain in our ass as they have been since the post WW2 cold war era....not because they're not good people but the world we deal with is about power, resources and economics.....Russian political thinking is opposed to our system of consent of the governed. Things like this are a funny thing we can have stretches where our economy is critical to theirs and it is in there best interest to see us flourish like Chiba for so long and then their are eras where they feel independent enough to seek out the geo-political relationships that leverage resources.

In the grand scheme of the world the United States is unique where other countries seek to preserve and life their nation, language and culture and get rid of foreigners, for the most part the rest of the world is mostly segregated by ethnicity, the United States is not only non ethnic it is flourishing with the most diverse population in the world...this concept is foreign the rest of the world powers and it seems they cannot quite figure out how to dilute the glue that binds our nation together.

So the bottom line is yes of course many of us understand how this threat effects us but QP's generally do not deal in the realm of proliferation and nuclear threats our focus is stability and regime stability or change, all we can do is affect the stability of host nations and hope that this stability thwarts war of any kind.

[Volunteer]

Just busting your chops. This site is probably a better reference.

https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/ss-n-32-bulava/

Also has tech specs about the Air Launched Cruise Missiles (ALCM).

I don’t think the USG is concerned the BJs are in South America...as long as they know what they’re up to. Putin, IMO, is just trying to tell the world that he’s still relevant.

No worries on busting my chops - understood. :D

I'm a techie, so I naturally lean toward the techie side of the news and Russian activities have really picked up, so I look for the technical side of whats publicly available, knowing full well any or all of what I can find is completely false, so I ask questions here. I agree with your point that Putin is working hard to make motions about relevance, but I'll never see him as anything other than a semi-rational sociopath with some psychopathic delusions about ruling the whole world one day.

Putin seems to fit both these definitions:
Psychopaths: Classified as with little or no conscience. Psychopaths can and do follow social conventions when it suits their needs, more to blend in as part of intentional deception.
Sociopaths: Classified as capable of limited empathy and remorse and are more likely to react violently whenever they're confronted by the consequences of their actions. Don't give a rip about anyone's opinion of what they're doing.

From other news I saw earlier reports today indicating that we and our allies are getting a closer look at that part of the world and I hope we take steps to frustrate Putin's ambitions and roll back the success he's had screwing with everyone he can reach.

My questions reveal my ignorance, and if any question I pose here gets no replies I won't pursue them further.

V/R
Volunteer

[Volunteer]

Well the long and short of yes it is a threat but guaranteed this is but one of many and that is the reality of the geo-political world that liberal-leftist don't seem to understand and certainly view it much different than conservatives do.

The Russians will be a pain in our ass as they have been since the post WW2 cold war era....not because they're not good people but the world we deal with is about power, resources and economics.....Russian political thinking is opposed to our system of consent of the governed. Things like this are a funny thing we can have stretches where our economy is critical to theirs and it is in there best interest to see us flourish like Chiba for so long and then their are eras where they feel independent enough to seek out the geo-political relationships that leverage resources.

In the grand scheme of the world the United States is unique where other countries seek to preserve and life their nation, language and culture and get rid of foreigners, for the most part the rest of the world is mostly segregated by ethnicity, the United States is not only non ethnic it is flourishing with the most diverse population in the world...this concept is foreign the rest of the world powers and it seems they cannot quite figure out how to dilute the glue that binds our nation together.

So the bottom line is yes of course many of us understand how this threat effects us but QP's generally do not deal in the realm of proliferation and nuclear threats our focus is stability and regime stability or change, all we can do is affect the stability of host nations and hope that this stability thwarts war of any kind.

Thank you for your reply, that really does help clear up some of my misconceptions about geopolitics. I spend more time here reading than anything else and have learned quite a lot along the way. Your description of the contrast between consent of the governed versus other models is very insightful. I really hope nobody figures out a solvent for the glue holding us together!

V/R
Volunteer

[Volunteer]

And then there’s this...complete article at link with video.

Russia thumbs its nose at America by sharing VIDEO of two nuclear-capable Tu-160 bombers flying over the Caribbean sea escorted by Venezuelan fighter jets for a 10-hour training mission

Two Tu-160 fighter jets, designated as 'Blackjacks' by NATO, took part in a training session with Venezuelan Air Force Wednesday

The planes, known in Russia as 'White Swans,' arrived in Venezuela Monday, sparking fury in Washington DC

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo slammed the joint exercise as 'two corrupt governments squandering public funds'

On the day of the training mission, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro accused the Trump administration of plotting to assassinate him

By ASSOCIATED PRESS and SNEJANA FARBEROV FOR DAILYMAIL.COM
PUBLISHED: 15:41 EST, 12 December 2018 | UPDATED: 15:46 EST, 14 December 2018

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6489371/Russian-nuclear-capable-bombers-fly-Caribbean-Sea.html

Two of Russia's nuclear-capable Tu-160 strategic bombers designated as 'Blackjacks' by NATO have flown over the Caribbean sea during a 10-hour training mission with the Venezuelan Air Force amid escalating tensions between Moscow and Washington DC, coupled with allegations of meddling in Caracas.

The flight of the jets was recorded on video, which Russia's Ministry of Defense then proudly shared on *******.

The planes, known in Russia as 'White Swans', arrived at Maiquetia airport outside Caracas on Monday after completing a 6,200-mile journey.

The Russian Defense Ministry said they were escorted by Venezuelan Su-30 and F-16 fighter jets during part of the training mission on Wednesday to practice interaction. It's unknown if the planes were carrying missiles, or how long they would stay in Venezuela.

The Tu-160 is capable of carrying conventional or nuclear-tipped cruise missiles with a range of 3,410 miles and flying over 7,500 miles without refueling.

One of the videos released by the Russian Ministry of Defense to RT.comshows Tu-160 pilots inside the cockpit during the flight.

Another video depicts the fighter jets taking off from Maiquetia at night and then landing at the airport the following morning.

The Russian bombers' deployment has infuriated Washington, where US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo characterized the joint training session as 'two corrupt governments squandering public funds, and squelching liberty and freedom while their people suffer.'

The Kremlin on Tuesday rejected Pompeo's criticism, saying it was 'highly undiplomatic' and 'completely inappropriate.'

'As for the idea that we are squandering money, we do not agree. It's not really appropriate for a country half of whose defense budget could feed the whole of Africa to be making such statements,' spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.

Venezuelan Foreign Minister Jorge Arreaza called Pompeo's comments 'not only disrespectful, but cynical,' highlighting the number of military bases the United States owns abroad.

'It's strange the U.S. government questions our right to cooperate on defense and security with other countries, when @realDonaldTrump publicly threatens us with a military invasion,' Arreaza tweeted.

Thanks for finding the rest of that. At the time, I could have done a better job of citing sources and links.

V/R
Volunteer

[miclo18d]

More Sabre rattling by the Russian federation. Yawn.

On 10 September 2008, two Russian Tu-160 landed in Venezuela as part of military manoeuvres, announcing an unprecedented deployment to Russia's ally at a time of increasingly tense relations between Russia and the United States. The Russian Ministry of Defence said Vasily Senko and Aleksandr Molodchiy were on a training mission. It said in a statement carried by Russian news agencies, that the aircraft would conduct training flights over neutral waters before returning to Russia. Its spokesman added that the aircraft were escorted by NATO fighters as they flew across the Atlantic Ocean.

40+ year old airframe, fleet is in disarray, no stealth tech.

Those were probably the only 2 they could get flight worthy over the last several years.

[WarriorDiplomat]

Thank you for your reply, that really does help clear up some of my misconceptions about geopolitics. I spend more time here reading than anything else and have learned quite a lot along the way. Your description of the contrast between consent of the governed versus other models is very insightful. I really hope nobody figures out a solvent for the glue holding us together!

V/R
Volunteer

I hoped it didn't come off as condescending most people outside the military don't seem to understand geo-politics very well

I look at the world in terms of chess, the major powers and sponsors are always jockeying to position themselves and only when they are certain they can exploit their targeted action is when they will act. Economics as in Global economics is a huge indicator if you can follow that you can practically follow the positioning of the worlds superpowers. Trump for example is implementing a new strategy for the African continent in which we pull back our money and aid that got very expensive and aimless under Obama and re-assess partner nation relationships with the other superpowers such as Russia and China who have been exploiting Africa for decades......essentially going back to cold war type relationships in which we spend much less on assisting countries whom the Chinese seem to profit more from under the security of out military strategic relationships....and then the Chinese will take the top performers from the host nation military post a U.S. JCET and bring them to China for yet another JCET and gain information on our military.

The Chinese have been taking advantage and expediting their exploitation of Africa's resources while the U.S. was providing the heavy security lifting. Those countries are run usually by militant strongman leaders who reap all the profit while their people struggle....the Chinese are perfectly happy letting the U.S. do much of the security force training so the Chinese can keep building their portfolio. This under the previous administration made sense because of the socialist nature of the POTUS and his cabinet.....Trump is putting Americas interest first and the African nations on board with us will be taken care of the ones on board with China/Russia will stay a 3rd world government.

The glue that has held the U.S. together has been shaken by identity politics and the promise the Democrats keep making in the form of a Socialist Utopia, the story of the right and the left is the story of Cain and Abel, Abel's hard work saw favor with God and he was blessed so Cain got jealous and sought to take away what Abel had earned and killed him in jealousy.

[Razor]

There's lots of pretty robust infrastructure for detecting ballistic missile launches; not so much for low-altitude cruise missiles, hence our concern over them.

[Volunteer]

More Sabre rattling by the Russian federation. Yawn.



40+ year old airframe, fleet is in disarray, no stealth tech.

Those were probably the only 2 they could get flight worthy over the last several years.

Thanks for rolling the ball to me slowly. :)
I wasn't aware they are 'driving' antiques. I would guess then that finding those aircraft with radar is an easy task.

[Volunteer]

I hoped it didn't come off as condescending most people outside the military don't seem to understand geo-politics very well

I look at the world in terms of chess, the major powers and sponsors are always jockeying to position themselves and only when they are certain they can exploit their targeted action is when they will act. Economics as in Global economics is a huge indicator if you can follow that you can practically follow the positioning of the worlds superpowers. Trump for example is implementing a new strategy for the African continent in which we pull back our money and aid that got very expensive and aimless under Obama and re-assess partner nation relationships with the other superpowers such as Russia and China who have been exploiting Africa for decades......essentially going back to cold war type relationships in which we spend much less on assisting countries whom the Chinese seem to profit more from under the security of out military strategic relationships....and then the Chinese will take the top performers from the host nation military post a U.S. JCET and bring them to China for yet another JCET and gain information on our military.

The Chinese have been taking advantage and expediting their exploitation of Africa's resources while the U.S. was providing the heavy security lifting. Those countries are run usually by militant strongman leaders who reap all the profit while their people struggle....the Chinese are perfectly happy letting the U.S. do much of the security force training so the Chinese can keep building their portfolio. This under the previous administration made sense because of the socialist nature of the POTUS and his cabinet.....Trump is putting Americas interest first and the African nations on board with us will be taken care of the ones on board with China/Russia will stay a 3rd world government.

The glue that has held the U.S. together has been shaken by identity politics and the promise the Democrats keep making in the form of a Socialist Utopia, the story of the right and the left is the story of Cain and Abel, Abel's hard work saw favor with God and he was blessed so Cain got jealous and sought to take away what Abel had earned and killed him in jealousy.

No, I don't see the replies here to me as condescending - you're all experts in your various specialties, just as I am with mine. Understanding the strategic thinking I believe you all exhibit is based on a bedrock of continuous training and daily familiarization. I do appreciate the insight. I did find a paper from the National Defense University that also helps me better understand: https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/stratperspective/inss/Strategic-Perspectives-11.pdf

I was aware that Africa is being stripped of its natural resources by the Chinese since the late 60's early 70's, but I wasn't aware of the tacit approval of that activity by the prior administration. I would welcome a less ambiguous return to how things worked back in the 80's and I never believed the cold war had ended, and domestically it was a serious error in judgment to spread that misunderstanding. Along those lines, I always thought it was a terrible mistake for the Germans to help the Russians sharpen their military skills during the so-called "reset" time period.

It's clear to me that the dumpster-fires in both domestic and international identity politics are something the Russians to take great delight in, in helping to foster the self destruction of ourselves and our allies. I really wish more understood the threat of the myth of the Socialist Utopia - I've worked to find more to understand disinformation as it applies to the current world, but all I'm able to find is focused on small slivers for the various social media platforms.

[Volunteer]

There's lots of pretty robust infrastructure for detecting ballistic missile launches; not so much for low-altitude cruise missiles, hence our concern over them.

That's good to know, thank you. I would surmise that's actually a form of "flying under the radar"?

[Peregrino]

----- but I'll never see him as anything other than a semi-rational sociopath with some psychopathic delusions about ruling the whole world one day. ------

Americans have a bad habit of making value judgements about other cultures based on an imperfect understanding of our own realities and ignorance/disinterest WRT the culture in question. Ethnocentric arrogance at its least helpful. FWIW, I think you're overcomplicating your assessment of Putin. It is probably sufficient to simply label him a Russian nationalist. The rest is redundant; especially when you analyze the personality traits required to rise to the levels he has achieved in his society/culture. Putin isn't an American and judging him from an American perspective has the potential to be fatally shortsighted. MOO - he could give any of the historical Tzars a run for their money. That's the standard I think is most helpful in analyzing his character/goals.

[Volunteer]

Americans have a bad habit of making value judgements about other cultures based on an imperfect understanding of our own realities and ignorance/disinterest WRT the culture in question. Ethnocentric arrogance at its least helpful. FWIW, I think you're overcomplicating your assessment of Putin. It is probably sufficient to simply label him a Russian nationalist. The rest is redundant; especially when you analyze the personality traits required to rise to the levels he has achieved in his society/culture. Putin isn't an American and judging him from an American perspective has the potential to be fatally shortsighted. MOO - he could give any of the historical Tzars a run for their money. That's the standard I think is most helpful in analyzing his character/goals.

You're absolutely right, Peregrino, I was viewing him through my societal lens, instead of just focusing on the facts - I appreciate the reset and I'll slow down to check for my own confirmation bias. There's nothing worse than an echo chamber reinforcing my beliefs especially when they're wrong. With Putin tagged as a nationalist, would you estimate that he is more rational and calculating than the public majority would give him credit for?

In jumping back for a moment to my start of the message thread, I see some now publicly mentioning Orchila Island Venezuela as a potentially new Russian base of operations only 1300 miles away from Florida. What the source suggests is support for both aircraft and submarines.
Sources:
https://twitter.com/Obs_IL/status/1075147065167147011
https://twitter.com/steffanwatkins/status/1073354399236395008
I realize I'm posting links to something I have no ability to vet as correct or just BS.

I do have a tendency to overcomplicate things, in some circles its referred to as Engineer's Disease. :)

[Surf n Turf]

You're absolutely right, Peregrino, I was viewing him through my societal lens, instead of just focusing on the facts - I appreciate the reset and I'll slow down to check for my own confirmation bias. There's nothing worse than an echo chamber reinforcing my beliefs especially when they're wrong. With Putin tagged as a nationalist, would you estimate that he is more rational and calculating than the public majority would give him credit for?

Volunteer,

Thought I would add my .02 rubles

Thoughts on Putin

In trying to understand Putin (or most any Russky) you must always remember, all Russian feelings start with the need to cherish and protect the “Motherland”(Ródina (родина)). This is a love of their country, and its dirt ,that is so deep, it sometimes transcends love of spouse, sometimes children, and often life itself.

Poets write about it, songs are composed about it, Novels have stories about it, Politicians drink to it, and 20 million gave their lives for it in WWII.

As Peregrino has written, Putin is a Russian Nationalist, who fully embraces the above, and who has risen thru a system as competitive as any, and reached its pinnacle.

What Putin is not, is a globalist. It appears that he and President Trump have that much in common

SnT

[Badger52]

... .02 rubles
You beat me to it, as well as Peregrino's, thanks. Far too many dismiss what it is to be "Russian" and use "institutional paranoia" as a perjorative sometimes to describe their behavior (guilty myself in the distant past). Then again, when you've been invaded again & again & again, it ain't paranoia. Putin taps into that "feeling the earth in your hands" thing that is a Russian and it's genuine, it connects. I also think that some, in other countries who've had a bit of an easier history. are envious of that feeling & wish they could experience it about their own homeland.

[Peregrino]

A few rambling thoughts. As the Army prepares for its next conflict against a "near-peer" adversary, I'm left to wonder if we will survive the experience as a nation. Personally, I believe that if this country is ever again faced with a general conflict on the order of WWII, we won't. The Russians understand patriotism and how to build/exploit nationalistic feelings in their populace. (Go to ******* and listen to some of the Red Army Chorus recordings; they'll raise the hair on the back of your neck.) That's what it takes to inspire a populace to make the sacrifices required to survive, let alone win, a general war. European leaders and the American "progressives" who admire/emulate them want to remake America in the European image (read - subordinate America to the European agenda). They have all waged a successful long-term campaign to redefine nationalism and patriotism in a negative context and denigrate the accomplishments that allowed America to attain its past successes. (Easy to see why Trump's MAGA slogan resonated with conservatives.) Control the language, control the thoughts. Makes me wonder if 1984 is still on any scholastic reading lists.

[Box]

Just my two cents, but the next conflict against a "near-peer" adversary is going to surprise LOTS of American citizens that have invested in the “equality for all” mantra. To make matters worse – LOTS of American politicians (and sadly, lots of senior military leaders) are going to be surprised when they are forced to acknowledge that near-peer was just a less threatening way to say “peer” and I believe in the long run, choosing to parrot the less threatening verbiage may come at a cost.

I also agree with your thoughts on survivability - I wonder if we would emerge from such a conflict intact as the nation we currently enjoy. It pains me to feel this way, but I really do think that there is a large portion of our country that would gladly resist the current administration out of ideological spite before they would rise together against a common foe. Cross sections of our society have been so successful at demonizing the concept of national pride that those with enough national pride to fight a peer-enemy would be wrongly identified as the cause instead of an ally. Hell, even republicans refuse to support republican agendas because they are offended by the Twitter storms that come from the president. Patriotism, Patriarchy – they sound a lot alike so they must both be bad.

The Russians and the Chinese aren't handicapped by any of that social justice bullshit. They don’t just understand patriotism – they cultivate it. They go above and beyond just building and exploiting it – they demand it and even export it. Here in the good ole' the US-of-A, we have slipped into a state of relative entitlement. How do we inspire a populace to sacrifice for the common good when entire elections are won and lost over a candidates philosophy on whether or not a short order cook at MacDonald’s should make 15 bucks an hour to forget your fries?

I am afraid that at least 65 million voting Americans are disinterested in winning or even participating in a general war because they are too busy trying to advance their party agenda. The comparison to the craziness going on in our country with the Orwellian Society in 1984 is a classic pitch to illustrate how bizarre things have become, but every chance I get, I challenge folks to add “Brave New World” by Aldus Huxley to the list of dystopian parallels to modern America. Modern America is a nice mixture of both. We collectively consume our government issued “soma” and blindly wander about unwilling to recognize that something is very very wrong with society.

…but hey, at least we all feel good.

[Volunteer]

A few rambling thoughts. As the Army prepares for its next conflict against a "near-peer" adversary, I'm left to wonder if we will survive the experience as a nation. Personally, I believe that if this country is ever again faced with a general conflict on the order of WWII, we won't. The Russians understand patriotism and how to build/exploit nationalistic feelings in their populace. (Go to ******* and listen to some of the Red Army Chorus recordings; they'll raise the hair on the back of your neck.) That's what it takes to inspire a populace to make the sacrifices required to survive, let alone win, a general war. European leaders and the American "progressives" who admire/emulate them want to remake America in the European image (read - subordinate America to the European agenda). They have all waged a successful long-term campaign to redefine nationalism and patriotism in a negative context and denigrate the accomplishments that allowed America to attain its past successes. (Easy to see why Trump's MAGA slogan resonated with conservatives.) Control the language, control the thoughts. Makes me wonder if 1984 is still on any scholastic reading lists.

Hello Peregrino.

I hope we can rise to the challenge that is coming.
We have far too many sheep and from my fire training, combined with what I've seen from FEMA since and following Katrina does not make me feel at ease.

I believe I've found a relevant link that points directly at what I believe you're describing in terms of adapting to changes in opposition tactics:
"Beyond the Gray Zone: Special Operations in Multidomain Battle"
Article:
https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Media/News/News-Article-View/Article/1681855/beyond-the-gray-zone-special-operations-in-multidomain-battle/
PDF:
https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/jfq/jfq-91/jfq-91_60-66_Hayes.pdf?ver=2018-11-06-094122-477

I hope you all had a Merry Christmas and _all_ will have a better 2019.

V/R,
Volunteer

[Volunteer]

Just my two cents, but the next conflict against a "near-peer" adversary is going to surprise LOTS of American citizens that have invested in the “equality for all” mantra. To make matters worse – LOTS of American politicians (and sadly, lots of senior military leaders) are going to be surprised when they are forced to acknowledge that near-peer was just a less threatening way to say “peer” and I believe in the long run, choosing to parrot the less threatening verbiage may come at a cost.

I also agree with your thoughts on survivability - I wonder if we would emerge from such a conflict intact as the nation we currently enjoy. It pains me to feel this way, but I really do think that there is a large portion of our country that would gladly resist the current administration out of ideological spite before they would rise together against a common foe. Cross sections of our society have been so successful at demonizing the concept of national pride that those with enough national pride to fight a peer-enemy would be wrongly identified as the cause instead of an ally. Hell, even republicans refuse to support republican agendas because they are offended by the Twitter storms that come from the president. Patriotism, Patriarchy – they sound a lot alike so they must both be bad.

The Russians and the Chinese aren't handicapped by any of that social justice bullshit. They don’t just understand patriotism – they cultivate it. They go above and beyond just building and exploiting it – they demand it and even export it. Here in the good ole' the US-of-A, we have slipped into a state of relative entitlement. How do we inspire a populace to sacrifice for the common good when entire elections are won and lost over a candidates philosophy on whether or not a short order cook at MacDonald’s should make 15 bucks an hour to forget your fries?

I am afraid that at least 65 million voting Americans are disinterested in winning or even participating in a general war because they are too busy trying to advance their party agenda. The comparison to the craziness going on in our country with the Orwellian Society in 1984 is a classic pitch to illustrate how bizarre things have become, but every chance I get, I challenge folks to add “Brave New World” by Aldus Huxley to the list of dystopian parallels to modern America. Modern America is a nice mixture of both. We collectively consume our government issued “soma” and blindly wander about unwilling to recognize that something is very very wrong with society.

…but hey, at least we all feel good.

I agree with all your points, Box.

Those all fit well within my experience as a volunteer firefighter and observations of the locals in the towns I live in and pass through across the PNW. I believe that the Pacific Northwest will certainly fare better than larger areas across California in particular.

I believe the only real way to wake up average folks across our country will come at a terrible price with significant losses. Far too many will be diverted to feeling sorry for themselves instead of mustering up. With any luck, enough will step up before a large swath of land is lost. Its my understanding that Russian military doctrine never discarded the use of smaller tactical nuclear weapons, and I wonder if that is correct and moreover if that is also Chinese doctrine.

V/R
Volunteer

[Box]

Its my understanding that Russian military doctrine never discarded the use of smaller tactical nuclear weapons, and I wonder if that is correct and moreover if that is also Chinese doctrine.

China was the first country to pledge a "no first use" policy way back in the early 60's. However, I think it is naive for ANY military planner to hang their hat on the idea of a "no first strike" policy.

First and foremost - the USA dropped not one but TWO atomic bombs to signal the beginning of the global nuclear arms race. Any chatter that the USA is an arrow straight "no first use" country is an intentional refusal to acknowledge that we are the first and only country in the world (so far) to use nukes against an enemy...

So...
...no first use = not so much

Everyone else uses the ambiguity of "defensive use" of nukes. In other words, if a division of Russian tanks comes barreling through the Fulda Gap - nukes would be used to defend Europe...
...which is the opposite of "no first strike"
Otherwise, for decades NATO quietly maintained a "flexible response" policy that was the very heart and soul of "mutually assured destruction" as a deterrent. All the way back to Eisenhower - the US has silently maintained a policy that "if things get too crazy - we WILL put a mushroom cloud over your cities"

Equally important to the ruse that "we only use nukes defensively" is the threat that your homes will be uninhabitable for the next 10,000 years.
...Hiroshima and Nagasaki were back in business by the mid-1950s; hardly the 10,000 year post apocalyptic wasteland that is seen in the movies. Bombs don't have all that much material in them and they are usually detonated above ground to maximize the damage. More damage means less persistent radiation on the ground post blast. Its the FEAR of mutually assured destruction that keeps everyone from shooting radioactive missiles back and forth.

People that think the USA is an altar boy that feeds the global poor and helps little old ladies across the street are also the people that live with their heads in the proverbial sand; the USA will straight fuck you up and stab you AND your loved ones in the back if you piss us off or try to fuck us over.
The REAL problem is, the Russians and Chinese will both scorch the earth before they will loose a war to the USA.
...and many of the 65 million Americans that voted to make Bill Clinton's wife a president would be quite satisfied if we surrendered in lieu of polluting the environment with a nuke.

"No First Use" is an illusory term used to keep dirty sweaty smelly dope smoking hippies from protesting in public and preventing decent Americans from getting to work on time.