One Korea??

[JJ_BPK]

Is this good??

Maybe..

Kim Jong Un walks into South Korea to shake hands with Moon Jae-in

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2018/04/26/north-koreas-kim-jong-un-crosses-border-into-south-korea-to-meet-moon-jae-in-for-historic-summit.html


This announcement is not a SMALL deal and has the potential to create a new Korea or destroy the country.

I suspect that South Koria has wrestled with the question for some time.

What to do with 25 million starving North Koreans, with no education nor infrastructure???

Back before Germany united, I work with a friend that lived in West Germany but had most of his relatives on the East side. He and I were both doing systems development and integration for corporate & government systems infrastructures. We spent a lot of our free time discussing this topic.

Germany spent many years planning on how to re-integrate the East. The major problem was that there was nobody in the East that had ever lived in a democracy. They were so ingrained in socialism, with the state running their lives, that they had no conception of how a free market society operated. The West knew they would need to continue the welfare state to support the East until they could be educated on capitalism. The West worked with all the large manufacturing companies to develop a plan to move education, jobs, and infrastructure to the East. They knew it would cost billions.

Germany is a good model for converting totalitarian states into a modern capitalist society, abet one that has a bit too much progressiveness. :mad:

With Korea?? Not sure how they will roll. I see China playing a large part and maybe Japan. The problem with North K is 5 fold what the Germans had to deal with.

Like Africa, the Middle East, Russia, South America, the Koreans peoples do not have a "history" of capitalism. It's going to be ruff. AND CHina's has set a bad model for the Asians.

Keep your finger crossed..

[mark46th]

Considering Korea's history with Japanese occupation, I would think China would be a better choice for assistance.

[Old Dog New Trick]

Whatever happens it will be historical.

If the newly unified Koreas ask the US to remove US forces from the 38th parallel and ultimately the peninsula that will be a major issue for any CinC.

I would think we would have to remain only as invited guests, otherwise leave in a coordinated withdrawal. (Knowing that this could be a ploy or ruse by KJUn to weaken the south.)

[Box]

Peace on the peninsula doesn't have to include reunification; in fact, unconditional reunification seems like a YUGE pipe dream. I'm sure that NORK would only agree to reunification if it meant that KJU would be clearly recognized as the winner of the free and democratic elections that would occur in the coming years. SOKO would clearly disagree with anything that looked like NORK citizens voting themselves a super-sized happy meal of economic justice financed by their South Korean brothers and sisters.

...but agreeing to call a war "ended" and pursuing a peace process isn't all that impossible and shouldn't necessarily require complete reunification.

[bblhead672]

If I remember correctly I seem to remember that the Japanese and Koreans hold a mutual hatred for each other.

Kim Jong Un and his top general should make the first gesture by resigning and turning over control of the country to an international body (not the UN, one that can actually work) to oversee dismantling of their nuclear forces, food and medical relief to the millions of abused N. Korean citizens and unification of the two countries into a constitutional republic. Local elections from village level up, with no former NK regime officials allowed to hold office. Educate the NK citizens on being part of a civilized, free society.

And now that my pipe dream is over....it's probably a ruse by the Norks to get US to withdraw to make it easier to invade.

[cbtengr]

I don't think this has anything to do with removing us from Korea. I am under the impression that the US does not have the military presence it once had in Korea, I am also under the impression that the govt. in the South is not always all that warm and fuzzy towards us. Forty years ago when I was with the 2D ID I was told that we were there to hold the South back from attacking the North not the other way around. I see no reason that the North could not prosper like the South has, I hope it works out for the better and does not involve us pouring billions of dollars into the North.

[Team Sergeant]

Not carter, not nixon, not Reagan, not kennedy, not bush one or two, not slick willy, not spineless barry soetoro, but President Donald Trump made this happen.

Thank you Mr. President. You continue to show the world what leadership really is………


(Now that this is finally happening you may want to run out and purchase stock in "de-mining" companies..........) ;)


Picture by;

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-southkorea-summit-crossing/kim-becomes-first-north-korean-leader-to-cross-border-into-south-since-war-idUSKBN1HY01L

[RCummings]

Hope for the best for South Korea. '78-'79 Camp Hovey we were told repeatedly that we were a "tripwire" and would be dead within 3 minutes of the start of hostilities. I never witnessed or heard that the South Koreans wanted any part of any problems with the North. The only thing that I saw was folks making money from the whole affair. I am no SME, has a situation like this N verses S with one side being controlled by Dictators for generations ever been resolved? I have been to Germany '69-'71 and Korea and the only commonality I see is an armed border. Am I missing something?

Congratulations to President Trump!

V/R

Bob

[Flagg]

Is this good??

Maybe..



This announcement is not a SMALL deal and has the potential to create a new Korea or destroy the country.

I suspect that South Koria has wrestled with the question for some time.

What to do with 25 million starving North Koreans, with no education nor infrastructure???

Back before Germany united, I work with a friend that lived in West Germany but had most of his relatives on the East side. He and I were both doing systems development and integration for corporate & government systems infrastructures. We spent a lot of our free time discussing this topic.

Germany spent many years planning on how to re-integrate the East. The major problem was that there was nobody in the East that had ever lived in a democracy. They were so ingrained in socialism, with the state running their lives, that they had no conception of how a free market society operated. The West knew they would need to continue the welfare state to support the East until they could be educated on capitalism. The West worked with all the large manufacturing companies to develop a plan to move education, jobs, and infrastructure to the East. They knew it would cost billions.

Germany is a good model for converting totalitarian states into a modern capitalist society, abet one that has a bit too much progressiveness. :mad:

With Korea?? Not sure how they will roll. I see China playing a large part and maybe Japan. The problem with North K is 5 fold what the Germans had to deal with.

Like Africa, the Middle East, Russia, South America, the Koreans peoples do not have a "history" of capitalism. It's going to be ruff. AND CHina's has set a bad model for the Asians.

Keep your finger crossed..

Interesting perspective.

I've often used the example of Germany's reunification in conversations about the inevitability of Korean reunification.

The biggest differences I see between the German and Korean examples include relative difference in development.

In 1989-1991, the economic inequality between West and East Germany was quite substantial in both the micro/macro sense.

But despite the pervasiveness of the STASI, East Germans were not on the brink of starvation, they "enjoyed" an ok standard of living, relatively high hard science education(stripping out the political ideology), mediocre to modernish industrialisation(granted with much IP theft from the west), overall......not a horrible situation from a clinical perspective(obviously the lack of freedom and pervasive surveillance is anathema).

Yet still, more than 25 years later and closing on 30, Eastern Germany still has considerably less economic success than Western Germany despite a trillion dollars invested.

Considerable disparity still exists and likely will persist for some time.

Now let's look at North Korea.

The full spectrum disparity between North and South Korea makes the disparity that existed between the two Germany's seem like a rounding error.

I would agree with Team Sergeant that DMZ de-mining business would be booming.

But I wonder if mines would be replaced with more concertina razor wire?

That's what I would do.

I don't see Japan playing a big role due to historical reasons.

I do see China forcing themselves into any reunification, maybe trying to create the Northern part of a unified Korea into something akin to an Austria/Finland like non alignment....mixed with a special economic zone model China has used with great success starting in the 80's.

Also, North Korea reportedly has a massive amount of rare earth material commodities that I'm sure China would want to "work" with Korea on ensuring maximum opportunity for local/regional economic value, and maximum export value(if they even allow it in raw form and no value add).

Perhaps a rare earth trading block.

Maybe we could see an unexpected shift in alliance in terms of unlikely bedfellows?

China/Korea

Think about it.

5 years ago no one would have predicted Turkey/Russia, but money(and potential for Central Asian energy distribution monopoly) talks.

One of the main reasons why I think North Korea should be demined, but the barbed wire tripled is that the value of cheap labour is in significant decline.

Think back to the problems the US had in the rust belt transitioning relatively well educated and healthy steel workers......far too many wound up with McJobs.

North Korea is that times a zillion....and with the onset of cheap robotics, cheap labour isn't what it used to be.

I'd say that 95% of anyone over the age of 15 in North Korea would be net-negative to South Korea in terms of lifetime economic/social value.

Harsh...but looking at it from the perspective of a commercial acquisition, it's like Samsung acquiring Chernobyl AND Fukushima.

[Joker]

You put your right hand in,
You put your right hand out,
You put your right hand in,
And you shake it all about,
You do the hokey pokey
and you turn yourself around
That what it's all about.


:p
:D

[35NCO]

KJU made walking look hard. Huffing and puffing signing papers....

KJU will drop dead. China, as always planned will save the day.

For SK to ensure de-escalation, we will be asked politely to leave.

More for Japan?

KJU looked very nervous to me. I suspect China already told him this firmly. Something in his eyes was pure fear. Fear of messing something very important up.

....another thought is maybe he is already dying of something else.

[cat in the hat]

"(Now that this is finally happening you may want to run out and purchase stock in "de-mining" companies..........)"

There are enough 1-1 SFG types from the 90's on this site with Cambodia Demining experience, maybe we should be strarting our own company

[rsdengler]

Hummmmmm...makes you wonder, not sure if you could trust
Kim Jong Un, reminds me of the Cheshire Cat with that malicious grin....I wonder what is inside that pudgy guy's head besides Twinkies....:munchin

[JJ_BPK]

There have been a bunch of MSM espousing and pontificating on the little fat guy's reason.

1)Many think that his bomb test site has gotten so contaminated, that the area used is permanently useless, not unlike Japan's Fukushima Daiichi and Russian's Chernobyl site.

2)Others say he has terminal diseases and needs mode meds than NK has.


My conundrum is
1)do you replace him with another NK despot, and leave them as separate identities?
2)or try to merge NK into SK?

:munchin

[Ret10Echo]

Figure it's a ploy to get the ROC to let their guard down. That guy is freakin' cuckoo for cocoa puffs

[Team Sergeant]

There have been a bunch of MSM espousing and pontificating on the little fat guy's reason.

1)Many think that his bomb test site has gotten so contaminated, that the area used is permanently useless, not unlike Japan's Fukushima Daiichi and Russian's Chernobyl site.

2)Others say he has terminal diseases and needs mode meds than NK has.


My conundrum is
1)do you replace him with another NK despot, and leave them as separate identities?
2)or try to merge NK into SK?

:munchin


1) No ones heard of "underground" testing?

and

2) Hi I'm Bill Gates, do you really think there's a drug or procedure I cannot procure?


What have you been watching ? CNN, or "the view" ?


:rolleyes:

[JJ_BPK]

1) No ones heard of "underground" testing?

and

2) Hi I'm Bill Gates, do you really think there's a drug or procedure I cannot procure?


What have you been watching ? CNN, or "the view" ?


:rolleyes:

Plus :munchin


The reports seem rational, as they built the mines in a valley with a tectonic fault down the center. :munchin





Aljazeera

Collapse of North Korea nuclear site threatens fallout: report

Researcher tells Hong Kong-based daily collapse of Mount Mantap site may be reason for the North's suspension of tests.

25 Apr 2018

A North Korean nuclear site in the country's north has collapsed, threatening an "unprecedented risk" of radioactive fallout including in neighbouring China, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) newspaper reported.

The Hong Kong-based publication said on Wednesday that the collapse at Punggye-ri near the border with China "may" be the reason why North Korean leader Kim Jong-un declared an immediate halt of its nuclear and missile tests, according to one researcher,

The newspaper report said the test site was "wrecked" beyond repair.


https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/04/collapse-north-korea-nuclear-site-threatens-fallout-report-180425130133169.html




The Asahi Shimbun | Asia & Japan Watch

The Asahi Shimbun Asia Korean Peninsula article

Asia Korean Peninsula

Geologists say North Korea’s nuclear test site has collapsed

April 26, 2018 at 13:35 JST

BEIJING--A study by Chinese geologists shows the mountain above North Korea's main nuclear test site has collapsed under the stress of the explosions, rendering it unsafe for further testing and necessitating monitoring for any leaking radiation.

The findings by the scientists at the University of Science and Technology of China may shed new light on North Korean President Kim Jong Un's announcement that his country was ceasing its testing program.

Nuclear explosions release enormous amounts of heat and energy, and the North's largest test in September was believed early on to have rendered the site in northeastern North Korea unstable.

The data in the latest Chinese study was collected following the most powerful of the North's six nuclear device tests on Sept. 3 that is believed to have triggered four earthquakes over the following weeks. The yield of the bomb was estimated at more than 100 kilotons of TNT, at least 10 times stronger than anything the North had tested previously. (The bomb the United States dropped on Hiroshima in 1945 had a yield of about 15 kilotons.)


http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201804260021.html

[Team Sergeant]

so you're reading reports based on middle eastern news media (:rolleyes:) and a Japanese article based on study by "Chinese" geologists.

You're soo lucky you're retired or I'd have you attending the very next O&I class........;)

[JJ_BPK]

so you're reading reports based on middle eastern news media (:rolleyes:) and a Japanese article based on study by "Chinese" geologists.

You're soo lucky you're retired or I'd have you attending the very next O&I class........;)

Sign me up :lifter

[Team Sergeant]

I still firmly believe the N Koreans never possessed a nuclear weapon and it all was saber rattling. Can we get some more "Chinese" experts to tell us different?

[Flagg]

I still firmly believe the N Koreans never possessed a nuclear weapon and it all was saber rattling. Can we get some more "Chinese" experts to tell us different?

Interesting viewpoint.

I don’t discount it, but I ‘m focused on exchanging the work “possessed” with “developed”.

I wonder about the nexus between Pakistan and North Korea.

Personally, I rank Pakistan as a much higher threat than the somewhat predictable Mafia state of North Korea in recent decades(drug, weapons, counterfeit currency based export economy).

Much like the Israel/South Africa nuclear relationship in the 1970’s-1980’s, I suspect the Pakistan/North Korea story is an important one.

Quickly followed by the Pakistan/Saudi story speculating into the near future.

[cbtengr]

So the NK's gave up the 3 Americans they were holding, what are the odds that we get the Pueblo back? They have had it 50 years now, that's long enough to rub our noses in it. Trump has to be in line for the Nobel Peace Prize now. He is one up on Barry, not only was he elected president he has actually accomplished something of international significance.

[Team Sergeant]

Interesting viewpoint.

I don’t discount it, but I ‘m focused on exchanging the work “possessed” with “developed”.



We've discussed this before. N Korea didn't possess the intellectual capacity to build a functioning rocket capable of carrying a nuclear payload and we're to believe it actually developed a nuclear weapon?

All the "tests" were underground....... no way of detecting radioactive fallout and no way of confirming a nuclear weapon was detonated.

If I wanted my enemies to shake in fear I'd detonated a one KT weapon above ground and told the world what time it was going to occur. That way the nuclear weapon confirmation would be beyond repute.

Fat Face boy doesn't possess a nuke, just a CNN/MSNBC flare for fake information.

My .02

[TWITCHY]

I’ve wondered, throughout all of this, what do they get? More specifically, what is China getting. NK is a Chinese puppet, just doing what they’re told. I think the real negotiations are between us and China. NK will get some money and aid from us, but it’s not enough to make them want to give up their nukes. Maybe the President is making some trade negotiations with China?

ETA: This (http://https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/trump-on-china-trade-be-cool-it-will-all-work-out) is what I would consider that could be in play along with the NK negotiations.

[Mycroft]

I’ve wondered, throughout all of this, what do they get? More specifically, what is China getting. NK is a Chinese puppet, just doing what they’re told. I think the real negotiations are between us and China. NK will get some money and aid from us, but it’s not enough to make them want to give up their nukes. Maybe the President is making some trade negotiations with China?

ETA: This (http://https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/trump-on-china-trade-be-cool-it-will-all-work-out) is what I would consider that could be in play along with the NK negotiations.

China gets saved from the economic crises that Trump lobbed at them all at once.

ZTE Employed as many people as Verizon and Trump literally killed the business.

ZTE is now getting re-opened after paying 2 separate massive fines to the US, replacing their entire management structure with US managers, and agreeing to enhanced monitoring among other things.


That is but one example.

Militarily, we sent 3 carrier groups out there at the same time we were adding economic pressure and at the same time we put political pressure on N Korea.

Even if it turns out that the entire tariff game was part of Trump's game of chicken with China to get N Korea to fold, if N Korea keeps its promises of denuclearization and reunification continues to march on I will consider Trump to be one of the greatest presidents of my lifetime.