View Full Version : Reuters: Germany to tell people to stockpile food and water in case of attacks
Have not noticed this in any of the main stream news outlets, but it does present a question of martial law in Germany, should they lose control when the people respond to influx of migrants, as I do not see Russia invading Germany....
Dated 08/21/2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-security-stockpiling-idUSKCN10W0MJ
Edit to add: Recession has arrived, we are down 25% this quarter, if the over heated market folds, and it will, this will also impact the daily needs for basic items.
Interesting turn of events, while the ruling progressive elites continue on thier multicultural adventure, people are arming themselves.
Aug 23, 2016 9:07am EDT
Europeans turn to weapons in growing numbers after attacks
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-attacks-guns-idUSKCN10Y19U?il=0
"There's no official explanation for the rise, but in general we see a connection to Europe's terrorist attacks," said Hanspeter Kruesi, a police spokesman in the Swiss canton of St. Gallen.
Kruesi advised against buying weapons, saying they did little to improve citizens' security while presenting problems over safe storage and raising legal questions over their proper use in a conflict. "People could actually make themselves criminally liable," he said.
After he spoke to Reuters, the canton was the scene of an attack aboard a train this month. The suspect and a woman victim died later, although police said his motive was unclear.
Is this a quote from idiocracy?
Trapper John
08-23-2016, 13:32
No, they are more worried about their power than their people. The population is disposable to them, what is not is their power and image.
You got it! Coupled with the global economic bubble we are in - things look a little dicey to me.
There is on the order of $7 Trillion of idle capital in the US and globally that number rises to ~$21 Trillion according to some estimates. The problem is that there is no place to invest that amount of capital. Capital markets are saturated because the global middle class is shrinking. Not to mention that the derivatives market has expanded to as much as 700x what it was when the mortgage derivatives nearly collapsed the global economies.
Progressive liberal policies are failing and have disenfranchised whole populations that would, in free markets, have emerged to participate. Now they have received transfer payments and suffered from poor education and training to the point that the do not have the necessary skills or motivation to start businesses or even participate in a meaningful way in the labor force. On a global scale financial markets are stuck unless of course a global conflict can be manufactured on the scale of WWII proportioned to scale of course, i.e. put on steroids.
Frankly, I think the ruling elites in the EU, US, and Asia are shitting themselves as to what to do. So fasten your seat belts boys and girls 'cause its going to be a bumpy ride! :eek:
Is this a quote from idiocracy?
Maybe this is why people like Kruesi become statistics during conflicts.
Divemaster
08-23-2016, 16:33
How about they hand out some knife-proof jackets all over western Europe. Cologne; Uccle, Belguim. Oh, and in Roanoke, VA too. And what was the deal with that 8-year-old being killed by a grenade in Sweden? There's been a lot of stuff in Europe over the past week or two not making the U.S. news.
Earlier I stated that the recession had arrived, because we were off 25% for the quarter, while that is true, the statement needs further clarification.
Restaurants are a clear economic barometer on the state and health of the overall economy. This is due to the fact that dinning out is a luxury service that you pay a premium for, regardless of class. Therefore, restaurants are the first to feel the economy constrict.
We started to notice the difference in our numbers in May, as the season progressed, we realized that not only were our numbers down, but those who were dinning, were not ordering as they usually did. Instead of three courses, some diners would split an appetizer and not order dessert.
The second quarter was off 14%. Entering the third quarter, our high season money quarter, we experienced a true decline. During this period, we watch the market, paying close attention to large chain restaurant stocks and restaurant auctions in and around NYC. The chains are down 20-25%, an a number of very fine, good, and Mom & Pop restaurants have gone to auction. In fact a very well known chef, who has a TV series is closing his eponymous restaurant in NYC on September 4th, due to the downturn. In our AO, two well established restaurant with 16+ years in business closed.
Our Operation is only 4 nights a week, with just 24 seats and low overhead, we will sucessfully manage the change. A few weeks ago, we installed a Sunday 3 course Prix Fixe menu with choices, price at $25 dollars. The initial response has been positive. We have also examined all expenses and have adjusted accordingly, we have been here before and are prepared to pull the plug should the client base really tighten its belt.
That said, we are fortunate in that we located the restaurant in the #1 county for per capitive income in the USA, Hunterdon County, NJ, and across the river from Bucks County, # 84 in the USA and #4 in PA. (Census 2010). That decision should support the three families that rely on this small business.
As mentioned, we have been here before, we closed 1 NYC restaurant in 2008, due to the market crash, and 2 beach restaurants in 2009, and another in 2010. We have been in the current restaurant for 4 years. The prior closuers taught us a number of things, which may be helpful for those who have never experienced a major downturn, and we think, based on a lot of national research, centered on individual credit card debt, mortgages, car loans, student loans, and the job market, that this recession could get bad real fast. We know this is contrary to what the news media is stating.
We were spanked in ‘08, it wasn’t until 2010 that we were in a position to know if the decision we made then, to take a sizable chunk of cash and disposed of all debt, downsize from a house to a 1000 sq/ft 2 floor loft, and further, limited lux choices, was the right decision. We now know it was the correct decision, as we are in a position to function at a 50% occupancy rate for the next 2 years if necessary.
Earlier I stated that the recession had arrived, because we were off 25% for the quarter, while that is true, the statement needs further clarification.
Restaurants are a clear economic barometer on the state and health of the overall economy. This is due to the fact that dinning out is a luxury service that you pay a premium for, regardless of class. Therefore, restaurants are the first to feel the economy constrict.
We started to notice the difference in our numbers in May, as the season progressed, we realized that not only were our numbers down, but those who were dinning, were not ordering as they usually did. Instead of three courses, some diners would split an appetizer and not order dessert.
The second quarter was off 14%. Entering the third quarter, our high season money quarter, we experienced a true decline. During this period, we watch the market, paying close attention to large chain restaurant stocks and restaurant auctions in and around NYC. The chains are down 20-25%, an a number of very fine, good, and Mom & Pop restaurants have gone to auction. In fact a very well known chef, who has a TV series is closing his eponymous restaurant in NYC on September 4th, due to the downturn. In our AO, two well established restaurant with 16+ years in business closed.
Our Operation is only 4 nights a week, with just 24 seats and low overhead, we will sucessfully manage the change. A few weeks ago, we installed a Sunday 3 course Prix Fixe menu with choices, price at $25 dollars. The initial response has been positive. We have also examined all expenses and have adjusted accordingly, we have been here before and are prepared to pull the plug should the client base really tighten its belt.
That said, we are fortunate in that we located the restaurant in the #1 county for per capitive income in the USA, Hunterdon County, NJ, and across the river from Bucks County, # 84 in the USA and #4 in PA. (Census 2010). That decision should support the three families that rely on this small business.
As mentioned, we have been here before, we closed 1 NYC restaurant in 2008, due to the market crash, and 2 beach restaurants in 2009, and another in 2010. We have been in the current restaurant for 4 years. The prior closuers taught us a number of things, which may be helpful for those who have never experienced a major downturn, and we think, based on a lot of national research, centered on individual credit card debt, mortgages, car loans, student loans, and the job market, that this recession could get bad real fast. We know this is contrary to what the news media is stating.
We were spanked in ‘08, it wasn’t until 2010 that we were in a position to know if the decision we made then, to take a sizable chunk of cash and disposed of all debt, downsize from a house to a 1000 sq/ft 2 floor loft, and further, limited lux choices, was the right decision. We now know it was the correct decision, as we are in a position to function at a 50% occupancy rate for the next 2 years if necessary.
I think you are spot on here, and make a lot of great points. As a financial advisor, I have been watching the restaurant industry avidly as well, I am seeing the same things you are in this part of New Jersey. I think you located brilliantly!
You touched on the good mom and pop restaurants closing, and the national chains are doing even worse. Quick synopsis about that in the link, although they are attempting to lay the blame almost solely on low grocery prices.
http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20160820/ISSUE01/308209995/whats-to-blame-for-slower-restaurant-sales-cheap-food
I had my clients in relatively large cash positions at the beginning of this year, and put a good amount back in during the drop early in 2016. As we have hit highs in the markets, I have started taking off profits and moving people back into relatively large cash positions. I am catching hell for it daily from people listening to the talking heads on TV, but I am convinced it is the best for my clients, considering what we have coming. It's just a matter of time before the entirety of this disaster will be unable to be concealed. They just need an "event," to blame it on. I figured it would be the massive stress test failures of European banks recently, even on a relatively easy stress test, but it didn't even make headlines.
Trapper John
08-24-2016, 11:29
I had my clients in relatively large cash positions at the beginning of this year, and put a good amount back in during the drop early in 2016. As we have hit highs in the markets, I have started taking off profits and moving people back into relatively large cash positions. I am catching hell for it daily from people listening to the talking heads on TV, but I am convinced it is the best for my clients, considering what we have coming. It's just a matter of time before the entirety of this disaster will be unable to be concealed. They just need an "event," to blame it on. I figured it would be the massive stress test failures of European banks recently, even on a relatively easy stress test, but it didn't even make headlines.
Very astute observation and good move on your part for your clients there Storm!
The "event" your referring to needs to be much, much bigger than the failure of a stress test though. Look to the Middle East and the convergence of Iranian, Russian, US, EU, and Chinese forces for the "event" that is needed.
IMHO, as opined in my earlier post, the "event" needs to be of a magnitude of that we saw in WWII.
Very astute observation and good move on your part for your clients there Storm!
The "event" your referring to needs to be much, much bigger than the failure of a stress test though. Look to the Middle East and the convergence of Iranian, Russian, US, EU, and Chinese forces for the "event" that is needed.
IMHO, as opined in my earlier post, the "event" needs to be of a magnitude of that we saw in WWII.
I was thinking more along the lines of one small string starting to unravel the ball that they have protected, and nurtured for so long. Essentially starting small and snowballing. You nailed it on the derivatives market, I believe. Only a select few saw the mortgage crisis coming, and people are still clouded on that issue to this very day.
So you are in the catastrophic failure boat brought on by those forces converging as you mentioned, or an event along those lines. Very interesting, thank you for your thoughts.
I am always telling people I don't have a crystal ball, but that many of these indicators are skewed, showing signs of a large reversal, or flat out being lied about. It is a dangerous scenario.
It always amazes me how quickly people forget just how much they lost just a few short years ago when you tell them you want to back off the accelerator and take a breather. At the same time, a good portion of my business is built on insulating people from the large losses during that time...it was a sad day to see people walk into my office down 40%, but now that they've recouped in most cases, or even added gains to that original amount, it has become a fairy tale to them that cannot possibly happen again. :confused:
Trapper John
08-24-2016, 13:30
Storm, look to non-financial indicators rather than the financial ones like the stress test failures. These are only diagnostic of how vulnerable big banks are and tell you the magnitude of a hit that is required to take them down.
I think geopolitical forces are much more telling, e.g. moves by the Chinese and the Russians for instance. This is not happening by coincidence. :eek:
Oh and while you're at it take a look at the changing demographics vs GDP growth rates and ask yourself where is the new alpha coming from?
Divemaster
08-24-2016, 13:47
Keynesian economics keeps us rolling from boom to bust to boom to bust to...
Trapper John, I do my best to keep track of the geo-political forces as well, this site is great for that. I agree with you that it is not an accident. I enjoy coming here not only for the large amounts of information, and perspectives, but also because I have noticed in my business, many seem to lose their sense of perspective in relation to the rest of the (real) world. Almost like a set of blinders to anything beyond finance. That is the most polite way I can put it, other than to say, it is hard to find grounded, quality people at times working in this business.
I am reading up now on the GDP/demographics/alpha scenarios you suggested, thanks again!
Trapper John
08-25-2016, 12:20
Trapper John, I do my best to keep track of the geo-political forces as well, this site is great for that. I agree with you that it is not an accident. I enjoy coming here not only for the large amounts of information, and perspectives, but also because I have noticed in my business, many seem to lose their sense of perspective in relation to the rest of the (real) world. Almost like a set of blinders to anything beyond finance. That is the most polite way I can put it, other than to say, it is hard to find grounded, quality people at times working in this business.
I am reading up now on the GDP/demographics/alpha scenarios you suggested, thanks again!
Let me know what you think, Storm. This is a work in process in my mind, but I really think there is something to this.
Trapper John
Progressive liberal policies are failing and have disenfranchised whole populations that would, in free markets, have emerged to participate. Now they have received transfer payments and suffered from poor education and training to the point that the do not have the necessary skills or motivation to start businesses or even participate in a meaningful way in the labor force. On a global scale financial markets are stuck unless of course a global conflict can be manufactured on the scale of WWII proportioned to scale of course, i.e. put on steroids.
TJ, I would argue that Progressive liberal policies are not failing in the least. In fact, they are achieving their strategic goal, which is to destabilize, by whatever means, including war, all societies and their culture's, and in doing so they disenfranchise whole population and make them dependent upon the state. Thats the goal of progressive liberalism.
Trapper John
08-25-2016, 15:44
Trapper John
TJ, I would argue that Progressive liberal policies are not failing in the least. In fact, they are achieving their strategic goal, which is to destabilize, by whatever means, including war, all societies and their culture's, and in doing so they disenfranchise whole population and make them dependent upon the state. Thats the goal of progressive liberalism.
BINGO!! I just didn't want to say that. Thanks for unveiling the TRUTH! :lifter
BINGO!! I just didn't want to say that. Thanks for unveiling the TRUTH! :lifter
In addition to what you've already pointed out, TJ....and Penn, Storm...Federal unfunded liabilities are at around 127$ trillion.
The bottom will fall out...and soon...under a Hitlery Presidency almost for sure.
Under Trump, yes, I think so, but my hope is the rioting would be controlled with his 'Law and Order' position.
To what Penn said, that it is done by design...that may be...but I think the commies have seriously miscalculated on the reaction of the BLM types to having the welfare spigot cut off...we will witness dozens of BHD Mogadishu type scenes across the country when that occurs.
...and who will rein it in? Not the police...not after their treatment by the commies...not a smaller military...perhaps we could argue how Conservative Governors would use their National Guard.
Those Americans, that are self-sufficient...and...storing food, water, ammo and solar panel chargers*...will make it through...and perhaps gain a real opportunity to take charge of the country if DT's bid for the presidency fails.
We could discuss what outside interference might look like when this reality comes calling.
Trapper John
08-26-2016, 10:42
Ummm, Patrin, the DoJ will step in a Federalize the LEOs. We have already seen that scenario tested. Protection from unreasonable search and seizure? FOGETABOUTIT! :(
Ummm, Patrin, the DoJ will step in a Federalize the LEOs. We have already seen that scenario tested. Protection from unreasonable search and seizure? FOGETABOUTIT! :(
True...the Feds have some big city police forces federalized.
Those forces can't project power past the city limits...and the way things are going...only enemy combatants will dwell there.
Since we'd seal off those cities to the outside world, it plays well.;)
Realpolitik - updating their SOP. Meh.
http://www.dw.com/en/german-cabinet-approves-new-civil-defense-plan/a-19497241
Richard
My first post in this thread noticed a continual down turn in the economy.
Well buckle up, DB bank is in Free fall and the whole system will follow....
http://www.marketslant.com/articles/deutsche-bank-crisis
(1VB)compforce
09-29-2016, 19:51
My first post in this thread noticed a continual down turn in the economy.
Well buckle up, DB bank is in Free fall and the whole system will follow....
http://www.marketslant.com/articles/deutsche-bank-crisis
yup, I'm short everywhere except gold. Lehman didn't have 1/10th the impact that Deutche Bank will have. The whole Euro (as a currency) is dependent on it and Germany just said no bailout. BTW, you can lay their chart on top of Lehman and they look nearly identical.
England's Brexit movement looks very smart right now.
1VB, Germany just said no bailout Germany will bailout DB, if it doesn't, allowing the market to correct itself, the entire world implodes. I doubt, that even the most zealous progressive liberal lacks the balls to seeing that outcome through.