The Ukraine, a time line to Freedom

[Team Sergeant]

Alright, I admit my background is the Middle East/ Asia and not Europe/Russia.

What's going on in the Ukraine? Should we be assisting the Freedom fighters against the extremely corrupt communist government?

Is it Ukrainians against Ukrainians?

After reading and watching some of the brutal beating of unarmed civilians by the Ukraine police I can only imagine at the level of corruption in the Ukrainian government.

Why did the EU turn their backs on the Ukrainian people? Fear of the Russians?

[Badger52]

Hard to judge without ground-truth. Many over there seem to resent what they see as a US-installed gov't - and ripped off as citizens as a result, especially when they identify ethnically as Russian. (The "don't muck around in my hemisphere" thing isn't restricted to the US.) Doesn't seem the EU has the gumption to push-back against much of anything the current administration does & certainly they have their own fish to fry.

Interesting over the transom note from a Russian, on a web-blog here (https://westernrifleshooters.wordpress.com/2015/10/07/from-over-the-transom-7/#comments), that discusses one Russian's viewpoint vis a vis Putin, Crimean situation, and the Ukraine. More here than meets the eye.
:munchin

[Tree Potato]

Alright, I admit my background is the Middle East/ Asia and not Europe/Russia.

What's going on in the Ukraine? Should we be assisting the Freedom fighters against the extremely corrupt communist government?

Is it Ukrainians against Ukrainians?

After reading and watching some of the brutal beating of unarmed civilians by the Ukraine police I can only imagine at the level of corruption in the Ukrainian government.

Why did the EU turn their backs on the Ukrainian people? Fear of the Russians?

Ukraine is a chocolate mess. Imagine an entire country with a multiple personality disorder, yet all of the personalities are insanely paranoid. The Ukrainian national anthem captures the sadness well: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bHzHlSLhtmM

It is Ukrainians vs each other, fueled by a divided country that is part pro-Europe and part pro-Russian. Corruption? Of course, it's on par with most of Africa, and everyone there knows it.

Why did the EU turn away? Without a doubt it was fear of Russia. Europe is dependent on Russian energy. If Gazprom turns off the pumps, Europeans die.

Should we be there helping the freedom fighters? Tough question in the best of times with solid leadership in place in our gov't, but given our current political quagmire I'd say H-E-double hockey sticks- NO. Our politicians would find a way to make life even more miserable for the Ukrainians. Russia demands a buffer zone between it and the west, and unless we fix the problem (Russia) the borderlands will all remain in turmoil.

[Team Sergeant]

Did a lot of reading and I've now gotten up to speed on the Ukraine's problems.

If the folks fighting for the Ukrainian Freedom want to make advances they need to target their own "Russian" Ukrainian politicians and kill them.

Nothing is going to change in the Ukraine until they start killing the corrupt Ukrainian politicians.

Stop fighting with the Russian Separatists and kill the corrupt Ukrainian politicians. Do this and watch the changes.

Also target the infrastructure of the Russian Separatists, turn off their electricity and target communications. Winter is almost here.

It's time for the face of War to change, let's kill the folks that start it instead of each other.

[Badger52]

Stop fighting with the Russian Separatists and kill the corrupt Ukrainian politicians. Do this and watch the changes.

Also target the infrastructure of the Russian Separatists, turn off their electricity and target communications. Winter is almost here.
It seems the separatists object to the "annointed" Ukrainian political situation nearly as much as those currently viewing themselves as 'pure' Ukrainians, which may have driven them hard in bonding to their Russian ethnicity. (Just conjecture on my part.) If Ukrainian nationals address the first thing on your list, do you think it mitigates to any degree the need for the latter? Or do the separatists remain one of those "sooner or later" type things anyway?

[Team Sergeant]

It would seem Russia is once again attempting to annex Ukraine and the Ukrainians are not having it.
The only way the Russians can get away with it is to support those from within the Ukraine.

The Ukrainians need to focus their combined might and take out the Russian separatist leaders/shot callers. And they need to target the infrastructure of the Russian Separatists.

Do that and it will have one of two outcomes, Russia will invade or they will back off. I doubt they will invade with the Western World watching.

Fighting for ones Freedom comes at a high cost.

[Tree Potato]

Is the Russian activity in Syria a distraction to enable continued turmoil stirring in Ukraine? After annexing Crimea it seems clear the next goal is overland LOCs through Russian controlled territory.

[Team Sergeant]

Is the Russian activity in Syria a distraction to enable continued turmoil stirring in Ukraine? After annexing Crimea it seems clear the next goal is overland LOCs through Russian controlled territory.

This is the USSR's/ Russia modus operandi and they've been using the same model for centuries. Syria is nothing but a weapons testing, pilot training venue for them.

[Badger52]

Syria is nothing but a weapons testing, pilot training venue for them.I seem to recall Spain being such a convenient venue for the Germans... something like 80-odd yrs ago.

[SpNkid]

My Opinion:
It is exactly Civil war in Ukraine between Ukrainians supported by Russia and West from different sides.
It is interesting question what side deserves "Freedom fighters" name in this war.

Russians and Ukrainians are one people. Ukrainian (as nationality) - a term coined by artificially in Austria-Hungary at the turn of 19-20 centuries. Prior to that, the inhabitants of border areas was called "Ukrainians", regardless of their nationality. Such "ukrainians" was in Pskov region or in Serbska Kraina for example. Krai (Край) = edge or border.

Until what time so called Ukrainians call themselves Russian people, how do you think?
Since 1893 in the United States published emigre newspaper "Freedom" of pro-Ukrainian orientation. It is still publishing, and on the official website of the newspaper hanging archive all its issues. I followed, when the newspaper was first started writing about the Ukrainian people and found exactly the issue where the word "Russian people", previously called themselves Ukrainians, suddenly changed to "Ukrainian people". Want to know what date it was?

Here is the first edition of "Freedom" for the September 15, 1893. Yes, under the headline is Shevchenko quote. But even following inscription: "Chasopis (chronicle) for ruska people unto americium." Russian, not Ukrainian.

Let's see another issue for the same year. Similarly. For the Russian people. Even language bears little resemblance to the Ukrainian, but rather it is the Little Russian dialect of ancient. If one of you do not believe me, you do get into that newspaper "Freedom" official website, there a lot of these issues, it's not a fake. Every year, out of 50, and then more and more issues. And nowhere in the issues of the 19th century there is no mention of the Ukrainians. They call themselves Russian people.
And now the issue of the 20th century, with the January 4th, 1900. "For ruska people", "Ruska People's Union". They themselves are called.
Look for the issue in January 1910. Then they say "Ruthenian People's Union of americium." Well, OK. "Ruthenian", "Ruska", but in any case not Ukrainian.
And here it is, the latest release, which refers to the Russian people. For the 13th October 1914. However, modestly referred to "RN" (Narod (народ) = people). But in the upper right corner you can read the "Russian People's Union".
And in the next issue, 15 th October 1914, the abbreviation "RN" has changed to "U.N.". And next to it is written in English is not "R", and "UKR". And in the top right corner of the already written "Ukrainian People's Union":
After this there is no mention "Russian" or "Ruthenian people." Here's another number, the last in 1914, in this and all subsequent issues they write about Ukrainians.
From all this we can conclude that the Ukrainians were not 140 thousand years ago, but exactly 100 years ago, in 1914. Until 1914, even they called themselves Russian people.


Ukraine and Syria both are just different parts of a large fence wich US mounting between Western Europe and Russia to interfere integration of russian resources with european money and technologies.
It is STRATFOR founder and chairman George Friedman said that the development of a German-Russian alliance most threatening to America's position of the world's lone superpower.
Two World wars were started in fact to prevent this alliance.
Ukraine - one of main historical transit locations on Berlin - Moscow line. As military route, as gas pipeline route, or simply as land route.
In order to reliably block the Russian ground routes to Europe, you need only two hostile to Russia countries: Poland and Ukraine. Poland you already have. Ukraine in the transformation process.
Syria was practically the only potentially safe place to mount an alternative pipelines from Persian Gulf through Jordan to Turkey and further to Europe. We all know why Iraq and Iran are not suitable for this.
When the agreement failed, Assad suddenly became a bloody tyrant.
Russian activity in Syria and Russian activity in Ukraine are not a distraction to each other but just two russian hands in different places. Both hands defends russian interests at the same time.

[Team Sergeant]

My Opinion:
It is exactly Civil war in Ukraine between Ukrainians supported by Russia and West from different sides.
It is interesting question what side deserves "Freedom fighters" name in this war.



You don't think the Ukrainians realize what they are fighting for? You've not seen the many documentaries on the brutal beatings, murder, population control measures forced on the people of the Ukraine by their Russian overlords?

It's clear to see as many of the "former" USSR countries want their freedom. Now it's the Ukraine's turn at pushing off the communist yoke and becoming a free nation.

[SpNkid]

You don't think the Ukrainians realize what they are fighting for? You've not seen the many documentaries on the brutal beatings, murder, population control measures forced on the people of the Ukraine by their Russian overlords?

It's clear to see as many of the "former" USSR countries want their freedom. Now it's the Ukraine's turn at pushing off the communist yoke and becoming a free nation.

I think Ukrainians (I using this term as citizenship issue) are pretty different.
I know a majority of people in Ukraine who originally speak russian and sorrow about USSR collapse, honoring Red army heroes, who win Hitler, and minority of another who originally speak ukrainian, honoring Hitler's collaborators and naively wish of european perspective.
Pocket media create a false picture that absolutely all people wish to European family and a few who thinks another way, and you know what? Pro-soviet and pro-russian people in modern Ukraine are not only are shamed. Many of they are jailed or killed just for their beliefs. And society (in media picture) is applauding to this situation.
And yes, I've seen the many of the brutal beatings, murder, population control measures forced on the people of the modern Ukraine by their overlords, wich not from Russia.
And yes, I've seen the many documentaries on the brutal beatings, murder, population control measures forced on the people in the other countries including USA.

[Badger52]

I think Ukrainians (I using this term as sitizenship issue) are pretty different.
I know a majority of people in Ukraine who originally speak russian and sorrow about USSR collapse, honoring Red army heroes, who win Hitler, and minority of another who originally speak ukrainian, honoring Hitler's collaborators and naively wish of european perspective.
Does the majority you speak of see the current Ukrainian regime as a US-proxy, or as a fascist as a substitute for communist, or both? Genuinely curious.

[SpNkid]

Does the majority you speak of see the current Ukrainian regime as a US-proxy, or as a fascist as a substitute for communist, or both? Genuinely curious.
Yes it is. Except, perhaps, a term "Communist". Communism nor in Ukraine, nor even in the Soviet Union was never existed. It is a chimera. Previously, there was socialism, and then suddenly came capitalism.

But in general, you guessed right. Adequate people thinks exactly this way.
Are they right? Let's try to check.

Is this regime fascistic or nazi?
Are you aware of the existence of the battalion "Azov", officially used Nazi symbols? On the Internet a lot of material, where the soldiers of this and other battalions openly used the Nazi salute, and despite that they received awards from the hands of top officials. Google "Nazi Azov" and see.
Maybe you do not know, but the country's prime minister last year called the inhabitants of the pro-Russian regions as subhumans and ceased to pay to oldest of them honestly earned retirement, despite official statements that the Donbass - is Ukraine.
People are intimidated by the prospect of criminal prosecution or the threat of physical violence or murder for their views. I do not know, do you know in America, but in Ukraine over the past year and a half, hundreds of people were jailed for such crimes like a public statement against the war or public sympathy for the Donetsk rebels, who, unlike the rest of the silent majority, is not kept silent, but took up arms and said "no." Dozens of people, including opposition politicians and journalists, were killed for political reasons.
Even I am in our conversation here and now deserved a prison term if some SBU reader will appear here.
It turns out that the regime is really a fascistic.

Is this regime pro-American?
Let us remember, Assistant Secretary of State and Ambassador of wich country met with militant protesters in Kiev. Let us remember which country has spent on the development of democracy in Ukraine $ 5 billion. Which country currently allocates money for weapons Ukraine. Which country is closing its eyes to the serious violations of human rights and freedoms in Ukraine, as well as rampant Nazi military units, encouraged by the government. "He is son of a bitch but he is our son of a bitch", isn't it?
It turns out that the regime is really a US-proxy.

[Badger52]

Thank you for your comments & candor. It ties with string some individual thoughts I'd had.

[SpNkid]

Thank you for your comments & candor. It ties with string some individual thoughts I'd had.

You are welcome :cool:

[Badger52]

Yes it is. Except, perhaps, a term "Communist". Communism nor in Ukraine, nor even in the Soviet Union was never existed. It is a chimera. Previously, there was socialism, and then suddenly came capitalism.
Was reflecting on this thread last night after a discussion with someone on another matter and thought to clarify my use of that term. It may be a simplistic approach but, ultimately, many westerners regard communism & socialism as two different things - but one being a progression of the other, to wit:

communism = socialism, at the point of a gun.

As said, it may be viewed as a simplistic approach by you but that ultimate threat (loss of life or freedom) is what distinguishes one from the other in the minds of many. And, just my opinion, many more who endorse socialistic views to running a nation state perhaps have not played the movie all the way to the end. Just wanted to make that distinction (at least in my mind) as to my use of the term.
:)

[Team Sergeant]

Communism is the most corrupt government system currently used. Russian communism is tyranny.

Seems the people of Ukraine are seeking freedom.

SpNkid you're making me laugh, if you think communism is OK go start an activist group and write something bad about Mr. Putin. What happened to Pussy Riot? Thrown in prison for speech?

In Russia and all communist countries there is only the illusion of freedom, except N Korea, there , there is no illusion.

[Bechorg]

Check out Winter of Fire on netflix if you want to see the leadup

[Maple Flag]

I'm very much interested in this topic and enjoying this thread. SpNkid, I'm inferring that you are coming at this conflict from the Russian/Pro-Russian perspective. Fair enough. I agree on some points, and disagree on others. Here are some of my perspectives:

Posted by SpNkid:

"It is exactly Civil war in Ukraine between Ukrainians supported by Russia and West from different sides.
It is interesting question what side deserves "Freedom fighters" name in this war."

I agree on the civil war label, including the comments that both side are getting outside support. That is fairly evident. What is different is the type of support being delivered. Based on information publicly available and an understanding of how these things typically play out behind the scenes, I am comfortable with the personal belief that some western nations have a limited amount of troops in the Ukraine serving in various capacities including but probably not limited to the training and advising capacity so common in these types of situations. In short, the west is assisting the current Ukrainian government. I think Russia is doing the same thing on their side, BUT, in addition...

1. Russia annexed Crimea with Russian troops the secure her interests. The Ukrainian government did not invite them. Putin denied this, then later admitted it. Credibility destroyed, but I'll give him a partial pass on the lying bit, as he is a world leader, and no one can afford to be truthful in that job.

2. It seems very probable that there are thousands, perhaps well over 10,000 Russian troops at times, deployed in the Ukraine. The numbers of Russian troops, and their status as "volunteers" or deployed soldiers on national service to Russia are highly propagandized, not doubt by the many factions and interests at play. Here is BBC commentary on this (granted, western media, subject to western propaganda) http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31794523

Even with Putin's claims that Russian soldiers fighting in the Ukraine are volunteers acting independently (I can't bring my self to give this any credibility, especially as it seems the "independently acting volunteers" are coming over in formations equipped with tanks, BMPS, BTRs, trucks and artillery pieces (not exactly the same as a scattered bunch of soldiers packing their ruck and going AWOL to run off to fight against the Ukrainian government forces.) If we accept Putin's claims on this, it suggests he has no control over his military whatsoever. (If tens of thousands of troops from any western country showed up in a foreign country of national interest with all their armored vehicles, logistics chains, and fighting capability and that western nation's leader claimed, "Oh, we didn't send them, they must have just all gone AWOL and volunteered on their own. Oh well, what can you do?", millions might die from laughing so hard.

In short, Russia has gone far beyond sending a small number of troops in an advisory role. It seems there can be little doubt she has invaded the Ukraine in a notably slippery fashion.


"Russians and Ukrainians are one people. "

This statement has no meaning to me. Russians are not one people. Ukrainians are also not one people. and Russians and Ukrainians are not one people. If you are saying that a segment of the Russian population has SOME commonality with a segment of the Ukrainian population, I might agree that is true. Anything more than that seem like ethnic identity propaganda. The citizens of those two countries are NOT "one people."


"Even language bears little resemblance to the Ukrainian, but rather it is the Little Russian dialect of ancient. "

This seems to contradict the notion that Russians and Ukrainians are one people. No matter, I don't believe any nation is "one people". Just interconnected networks of unique people agreeing and disagreeing on various issues.


"Ukraine and Syria both are just different parts of a large fence wich US mounting between Western Europe and Russia to interfere integration of russian resources with european money and technologies.
It is STRATFOR founder and chairman George Friedman said that the development of a German-Russian alliance most threatening to America's position of the world's lone superpower."

Yes, I think there is likely some truth to that. I call that global strategy. Russia plays that game too, so it can't cry foul (well, it can, but I think it sounds hypocritical).


"Two World wars were started in fact to prevent this alliance."

Based on the history I've read, I don't believe that. But, I've only read the history the west has written when it comes to the world wars.


"When the agreement failed, Assad suddenly became a bloody tyrant.
Russian activity in Syria and Russian activity in Ukraine are not a distraction to each other but just two russian hands in different places. Both hands defends russian interests at the same time. "

Yes, I agree, although I think the use of the term "defends" is propagandist. Attack and defense at this level of strategy I think lose their meaning. "Both hands SUPPORT Russian interests at the same time" would be more impartial.


"Ukraine - one of main historical transit locations on Berlin - Moscow line. As military route, as gas pipeline route, or simply as land route.
In order to reliably block the Russian ground routes to Europe, you need only two hostile to Russia countries: Poland and Ukraine. Poland you already have. Ukraine in the transformation process.
Syria was practically the only potentially safe place to mount an alternative pipelines from Persian Gulf through Jordan to Turkey and further to Europe."

Here's where we are starting to see things similarly. Russia's economy and security lives or dies on selling energy. I believe Putin wants to secure the lines of communication of his energy supplies to Europe as you stated, and also create a strategic land buffer between NATO, possibly the EU, and Russia. Russia used to have the Warsaw Pact nations as a buffer. Now it does not, and this creates vulnerability. I understand that. I think Russia also wants to reassert itself as at least a strong regional power with influence. I get that too. That is natural. And efforts to block those aims are also understandable. It's all part of the grand game. (More related BBC content: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/guides/456900/456974/html/nn4page1.stm ). Russia can seemingly win some battles, but also seems to be slipping in the big game over the past century. It is a country whose economy is not sufficiently diversified, whose currency is not stable or valued, who offers little in terms of freedom to her people and whose democracy is questionable. Also, like many western nations, Russia's natural population growth is reported to be shrinking (despite a 0.016 natural growth in 2013, this first since the collapse of the Soviet Union - read more here: http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2014/02/07/russia-just-recorded-its-first-natural-population-growth-since-the-collapse-of-the-soviet-union/). If, as this article suggests, Russia is going to have to depend on migration from former Soviet republics in Central Asia for competitive population growth, to what extent will Russians be "one people" then? (not that I believe they are even now).

As I see it, Russia had the Ukraine through the previous Yanukovych administration. The Ukrainian people resisted that through mass demonstrations in the Euromaidan revolution (yes, I agree, it was likely done with Western assistance) and demonstrators were met with beatings, gunfire, and all the distasteful things you mentioned, only at the hands of the Pro-Russian government (any side of a conflict can find examples of nasty things the other has done as part of the mud slinging). Then, when it was apparent that political control was lost, Yanukovych fled to Russia, and Putin put Von Clausewitz's famous saying into motion: "War is a mere continuation of politics by other means." Yup.

So, which Ukrainians are the real freedom fighters? My vote has to go to those resisting the Russian invasion and Russia's attempts to have the Ukraine as a controlled line of communication to European markets and a strategic buffer from NATO. One by one, eastern Europe is slowly becoming more like western Europe (especially with the younger generations I've talked to there) and Russia's leaders are not liking it one bit. Too bad. Russia should focus on straightening itself economically out so it can offer others something more than oil, gas, weapons and misery. I think Russians are a great people held back by leaders spending too much time looking outwards and not inwards, oligarchs milking the oil and gas supply profits for themselves and leaving nothing for the future generations when the gas inevitably runs out, or loses relevancy and value, whichever comes first. (If you want, read more about how Norway, another net energy exporter, invests energy profits into its future as it knows that one day, oil and gas money will dry up. I think Norway will be ready when that happens. I shudder to think what will happen to the Russian people, and those unfortunate to be living in countries next to them, when that happens.)

[SpNkid]

Maple Flag, I have read your post just now and I have to admit that I was a little superficial before. Firstly, I did not expect to find here a collocutor who so close acquaintance with the issue. Secondly, my English is not good enough, plus I try to use translators minimally. So I prefer to articulate simple thoughts than difficult ones. Both of these factors encourages me to exert all my strength to prepare thoughtful and competent answer to you. In addition, I must also admit that in some things you even transformed my thoughts a little. And it requires thinking.
Anyway I need some time to continue our discuss further. I hope you will keep your attention on this tread.

[Dusty]

except N Korea, there , there is no illusion.

...or electricity, water, food, etc.

[Maple Flag]

Maple Flag, I have read your post just now and I have to admit that I was a little superficial before. Firstly, I did not expect to find here a collocutor who so close acquaintance with the issue. Secondly, my English is not good enough, plus I try to use translators minimally. So I prefer to articulate simple thoughts than difficult ones. Both of these factors encourages me to exert all my strength to prepare thoughtful and competent answer to you. In addition, I must also admit that in some things you even transformed my thoughts a little. And it requires thinking.
Anyway I need some time to continue our discuss further. I hope you will keep your attention on this tread.

No problem on the English language challenge. I studied Russian and other Slavic languages, and can understand the difficulty of expressing complex ideas in a foreign language. I look forward to reading more on your perspectives.

[Maple Flag]

A few more thoughts and sources on the Ukraine conflict, picking up from the themes discussed here.


On the topic of the Ukraine as a strategic buffer for Russia:

Business Insider.com - 10 Maps That Explain Russia's Strategy.
http://www.businessinsider.com/10-maps-that-explain-russia-strategy-2017-7/#russia-is-almost-landlocked-1


On the Ukraine conflict and Russia's dependence on oil revenue:

Ukraine timeline data
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-18010123

Historical crude oil price data
http://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart


Observations:

February, 2014

- Crude oil selling for about $107.30 - prices are good, keeping Russia in the green.

- Security forces in Ukraine's Russia-friendly government (led by President Yanukovych) kill 77 pro-western demonstrators

- Things totally fall apart and the Ukrainian President Yanukovych flees......to Russia.


March, 2014

- Crude oil selling for about $105.33 - prices still good, keeping Russia in the green

- Russia invades Ukraine, seizes Crimea, and provides support to pro-Russian Ukrainian separatists.

- Ukraine conflict expands and intensifies to civil war.


July - August, 2014

- Oil prices still stable through July and August, averaging at around $100.98 and $100.80 respectively.

- Malaysian airliner shot down over separatist held territory in July, killing 298 people.

- Russian "aid" convoys enter Ukraine without Ukrainian authorization.

- Peacemaking attempts are ineffective.

- Russia continuing activity in Eastern Ukraine.


September, 2014 - January, 2015

- Oil prices plummet dramatically from the $100+ mark to $93.81 in September, continuing freefall to $50.08 by January, 2015

- September - Government signs Minsk peace plan ceasefire with pro-Russian leaders in eastern Ukraine. The two separatist regions agree to hold local elections under Ukrainian law in December.

- September through November - Initial cease-fire repeatedly violated before breaking down completely. NATO confirms Russian troops and heavy military equipment entering eastern Ukraine.

- October - Parliamentary elections produce convincing majority for pro-Western parties, which begin process of forming a new coalition led by Prime Minster Arseny Yatseniuk.


February, 2015

- Oil now holding at around $52.03, half of what it was when the conflict started.

- New ceasefire terms are brokered by France and Germany, which pro-Russian separatists agree to.


March, 2015 to Present

- Oil prices continue to hold somewhere in the range of $62.06 and as low as $29.44, selling in July, 2017 at around $46.37.

- Conflict continues at a much lower level of intensity.


I'll be the first to say that correlation does not equal causation. But it certainly doesn't disprove it either. When oil prices weaken, so does Russia.

The Economist on the more current 2017 state of affairs:

"Unable to offer much of a future, the separatists are cultivating the symbols of the Soviet past. On May 11th, they marked the third anniversary of their “republic” with a Soviet-style march. A voice boomed from loudspeakers: “We greet this day with joy and pride for a glorious past and in confidence for a peaceful and happy future.” Workers with balloons and Soviet flags marched in columns along Lenin Prospect. Yet keeping up a Soviet veneer may not be easy without jobs, particularly as industrial production plummets.

However disillusioned most people in Donetsk feel with the “Russian spring”, few believe that the territory could ever be reincorporated into Ukraine. "


More here:
https://www.economist.com/news/europe/21722677-minsk-2-peace-agreement-sham-neither-side-can-pull-out-ukraine-and-russia-are-both

[Pericles]

MapleFlag thank you for your perspective on the situation. I found it very educational.

[Maple Flag]

Thanks for the kind words Pericles.

A few things are developing that may shake things up in the Ukraine in the next 6 months.


PRESENT DAY

Assad’s position is more secure, and Russian ground forces commitments in Syria are diminished, while ISIS/ISIL is collapsing.

Both oil and natural gas prices have been on the rise in the past few months.

Minsk II ceasefire violations are ongoing but low intensity, and the lines are fairly static.

The U.S has also now authorized sales of arms to Ukraine, and sniper rifles and anti-tank missiles are expected to be on the way.

A number of assassinations in Kiev of opponents to Russia have occurred in recent months.


FEBRUARY

The U.S. Treasury Department will be releasing two reports on sanctions against Russia in February. This may lead to further sanctions, possibly targeting sovereign debt as well as oligarchs that Putin relies on.


MARCH

The Russian federal elections are in March. A Putin win is an almost sure bet, unless sanctions somehow scare the oligarchs into pulling support for Putin. This seems very unlikely to me. I expect that Putin will continue to adapt his strategy to support oligarch wealth protection and insulating Russia’s economy and her elite from the impact of Western sanctions. This strategy however, while seemingly defensive and reactive, will potentially open the door to Putin having more offensive maneuvering room in regards the Ukraine conflict.


APRIL

If Putin is secure in his presidency post-election (or perhaps even pre-election...), and enough supporting factors are present (ie: there are no other major Russian military commitments, oil and gas prices continue to rise and Putin is able to fend off the impact of sanctions through any combination of preventing new sanctions, loop-holing and end-running current sanctions, and reducing exposures through increased trade with Asia and the Middle East) then we may see a renewed intensification of the conflict.

I’m watching for the trigger event that will “justify” sudden action from Russia, or alternatively a slow and deniable creeping intensification.

Spring is coming...:munchin