LATAM Analysis

[NousDefionsDoc]

Article (http://www.heritage.org/Research/LatinAmerica/hl859.cfm)

[Jack Moroney (RIP)]

Interesting article NDD. What's your take?

Jack Moroney

[NousDefionsDoc]

Its ok. The alarmist bit about the gangs. Yeah, there is a problem, but I don't think it is an international problem and should be high on our list.

The bit about Venezuela - There is enough opposition in Venezuela to keep Chavez from getting too silly outside his own borders. We just need to make sure the opposition remains viable. Also, when Fidelito dies, Chavez will lose a lot of his charm. Chavez and Lula in Brazil are in competition for the most popular populist. Lula has been quiet lately...

We are not engaged in LATAM like we should be IMO.

We need to do a couple of things short term:
1. Continued support for Uribe in Colombia. He has the FARC with their heads in their shell if not on the ropes. Right now they are waiting the results of the paramilitary demob. The Colombian Army needs to feel the void left by the paras or the vicious circle will start all over again. Colombia could very easily become the model for LTAM and the most secure nation in the region with a couple more pushes.

2. Deeper engagement with the HN police and miilitary. We need to get MTTs cranked back up to the 80s levels. A big part of the problem with the gangs etc. is that the police are as corrupt and criminal as the BGs. Rosso Serrano did a good job of cleaning them up in Colombia with US help, but they are back sliding again. Cops in Honduras and Guatemala are a joke. We all know about Mexico. The ATA program needs to be expanded. Other programs like it need to be implemented.

3. State needs to quit boot-licking the Cuban refugee community. There is much more to LATAM than Cuba.

We need to cut off countries like Vietnam and others from aid and start investing in our own back yard. I think the day will eventually come when we get tired of the ME and give up on it. We can't get tired of our own borders and pull back - nowhere to go.

[NousDefionsDoc]

Another thing I have a problem with is the lack of knowledge. I won't mention any specific departments of government - State - but it is laughable.

I had to deal with the energy desk a few years ago. Recently graduated college girl - had never seen a drilling rig except in pictures - and had been in-country for about a year. Now, you tell me how you get to be the energy desk at a US Embassy in a major oil producing country without having seen a drilling rig.

They know what the HN tells them. Very rarely do they go look for themselves.

How do you accept an assignment in a country without knowing the history of at least the current insurgent groups? Or the relationship between the US and the HN? Otr speak a passable amount of the language?

The security people all run around these countries acting like they have some kind of secret G2. They don't. It doesn't take the brains of an Archbishop to know the FARC and paras were fighting over sea access for drug shipments a couple of years ago, plot it on a map, and predict what was going to happen next.

Nor to understand what Ecuador going to the dollar was going to do to the plays in Colombia and the impact they would have on Ecuador.

Castro is going to die - we will be caught unprepared.
Marulanda is going to die - we will be caught unprepared and probably pull support for Uribe at the critical moment.
There will be a reaction to Castro's death in Venezuela with Chavez and we will be caught unprepared.
Something will be done to the Mexican border - there will be a reaction and we will be caught unprepared.

[vsvo]

Interesting article, especially related to the gang situation. Around here in Northern Virginia Latino gangs have been in the news lately with several high profile machete attacks and revenge murders. The biggest one is MS-13 (Mara Salvatrucha), a violent Salvadoran gang. Although reportedly numbering only 2000-3000 in DC metro, the violence of their crimes has caused the local authorities to declare a gang crisis.

[Jack Moroney (RIP)]

Thanks NDD, enjoyed your insight. I can understand your frustration with the oil rig chick. When five of us were getting cranked up to go into West Africa 20 years ago the West African DOS chick handed us an area study that was 15 years old and told us that is was as current and up to date as far as she knew. Sort of reminded me of that advertisement where the guy saves the nuclear reactor from melt down and everyone wants to know if he is a new member of the team. His response:"No, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night"

Jack Moroney

[Roguish Lawyer]

See, NDD, this is why you will be SecState in my administration. You will clean up the entire department.

Tx: ENEMA!

LOL