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The Reaper
06-30-2014, 09:57
An excellent read on how they do it.

TR

MILITARY INTERVENTION, IRANIAN-STYLE
Farzan Sabet
June 30, 2014 • in Analysis
http://warontherocks.com/2014/06/military-intervention-iranian-style/

The Islamic Republic of Iran today is being confronted by existential attacks on its alliance system, the axis of resistance, on two fronts: first Syria, and now Iraq. While it has largely contained the Syrian civil war-having reversed the tide in favor of Bashar al Assad's regime after three years of sustained military, political, and economic support-the crumbling of the Iraqi state and the possibility of a Sunni resurgence has elites in Iran alarmed.
Iran is now in the uncomfortable position of planning to stage a military intervention in Iraq, one that is likely to follow a pattern that has emerged since 1979.

Two decisive military experiences in the 1980s have helped shape Iran's approach to military intervention and its very strong preference for covert operations. The first is the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), which is arguably the defining experience of the Islamic Republic, on par with the revolution itself.

While Iran's conventional military achieved its primary objective of not conceding an inch of Iranian soil to Iraq using overt operations, it was far less successful in projecting power into Iraq, and the stalemated war ultimately cost hundreds of thousands of casualties and hundreds of billions of dollars.

Critically, Iran learned the limits of its conventional military power, constrained by technological and industrial shortcomings and international balance-of-power dynamics. The second experience was attempts by the Movements Branch, the predecessor of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Jerusalem (Qods) Force, to create resistance movements across the Middle East, especially Hezbollah in Lebanon in the early 1980s, and helped shape an evolving template which has been used widely elsewhere since. This second experience has left a greater imprint on Iranian military interventions due to its relative military success, cost-effectiveness, and deniability.

With this background in mind, what is Iran's approach to military interventions?

It typically follows three basic principles.

1. Leave a light footprint

Iran's preference for a light footprint, especially covert operations, has been confirmed on numerous occasions since 1979; it has relied on small and discreet special operations and intelligence units which gather vital information and act as trainers and advisers to realize its goals, the most well-known example being Major-General Qasem Soleimani's Jerusalem Force. As Robert
Beckhusen has neatly summarized, "The Quds Force is not a front-line unit, but functions as a special operations group whose presence and leadership improves indigenous forces on the battlefield." This preference, shaped by its experiences in the 1980s, coalesced into a more consistent approach in the aftermath of the killing of 13 Iranian diplomats in its Mazari Sharif consulate by the Afghan Taliban in 1998. This was an episode in which a large-scale Iranian overt operation in Afghanistan was seriously contemplated by the regime's national security establishment. While we do not know all of the facts, credible accounts have begun to emerge. As current senior military adviser to the supreme leader and former IRGC commander Majour-General Yayha Rahim-

Safavi recounts:

At that time [1998] I was commander of the IRGC and in 48 hours deployed two divisions with airplanes on the border of Taybad. I made an operational plan and took it before [Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei] to ask permission so that we could advance to the Herat region with a number of divisions. Herat is approximately 130 km from our border. I said: 'Give us permission, for the punishment of the Taliban, to advance to Herat; annihilate, punish, eliminate them and return.'

This is said to be one of the few occasions in which Khamenei went against the consensus of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), the main body responsible for Iran's foreign and national security policymaking. According to Rahim-Safavi, Khamenei disagreed on two grounds, saying that: "First the Taliban has not entered our territory and not infiltrated our country; the entry of Iran into the land of Afghanistan may lead others to react." Here, Khamenei appears to have firmly established violation of Iranian territory as one of the very few red-lines that could trigger overt military intervention. Second, Khamenei is said to have asserted that "Right now 13 people have been martyred and you go to seek revenge," but in a large-scale deployment this number could increase because "it is not the case that only you kill them."

Rahim-Safavi's alternative proposal to "strike the Taliban border outposts with artillery and mortar and then demolish them with bulldozers and loaders in a short period," was ultimately accepted. This was only a stopgap measure, however, and the thrust of Iran's response to the Taliban from 1998 onward relied on covert operations, including a partnership with the Northern Alliance, an indigenous force in Afghanistan.

Iran's preference for leaving a light footprint in military interventions has been strong enough that even in Syria, where reliable local forces have been stretched to their limits, Iran has tried to avoid using Iranian troops and deployed Lebanese Hezbollah, Iraqi Shi'a special groups, and-allegedly-Shia Hazara refugees from Iran, among others.

2. Partner with indigenous forces and use unconventional warfare

(cont. at link above)

Flagg
06-30-2014, 14:31
Great article...cheers for sharing.

I can only guess that the COIN flip Iran has experienced from conducting UW against the US coalition in the region over the last decade to now conducting FID to support Syria/Iraq(even Lebanon with the bombings targeting Hez) is going to be burning out personnel, equipment, and the national treasury.

It makes me wonder if US strategy towards Iran is one of omission by not pressuring the GCC Sunnis to reduce their support in Syria/Iraq which is putting Iran under pressure.

I would guess UW campaigns, on historical average, achieve a far higher bang for the buck than the flip side FID campaigns.

With Iran now on the flip side and likely to see a far higher burn rate of personnel, equipment, and cash it could potentially be vulnerable to a regional replica of the efforts under the Reagan Administration to bankrupt the Soviet Union?

Accidental? intentional? Or am I misguided in my thinking?

----------

As to the topic of Iranian Special Operations, I find it hard to understand them in terms of capability.

They seem to possess a pretty good handle on UW and asymmetric warfare by proxy.

When I think of the movie Gangs of New York...I can't help but think that if you changed it from New York to Beirut and added in some IRGC/Qods Force cadres and some AK47s and explosives...it would have a lot of similarities.

But they've also had a significant number of recent and quite embarrassing international failures.

I wish David Kilcullen's recent book Out of the Mountains had explored Iran's history of asymmetric warfare in developing illicit networks around the world.

MtnGoat
06-30-2014, 15:52
Thanks for this post TR. Between this and the article named Shadow Commander covering Suleimani, the Quad Commander, great reads to get a baseline of Iran.

Yes FLAGG.. I would say Iran has had much more experience in conducting irregula/asymmetric warfare over any of us. Espeically by Poxy. They have the force fighters down.

One thing that they have over the West is the islamic idealism and all those ties. When you have a common belief and able to exploit them, it is way better and cheaper. That's why Islamic extremist group can do so well.

LarryW
07-02-2014, 10:29
Safavi recounts:

At that time [1998] I was commander of the IRGC and in 48 hours deployed two divisions with airplanes on the border of Taybad. I made an operational plan and took it before [Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei] to ask permission so that we could advance to the Herat region with a number of divisions. Herat is approximately 130 km from our border. I said: 'Give us permission, for the punishment of the Taliban, to advance to Herat; annihilate, punish, eliminate them and return.'

Not sure if this is true, but it does indicate the kind of freedom a leader needs to have in order to be ready. I hope our warfighter-leaders have that kind of authority and enjoy that level of trust. The simplicity of the Op Order is compelling: "... to advance to Herat; annihilate, punish, eliminate them and return."

Excellent article.

Flagg
07-02-2014, 16:10
Thanks for this post TR. Between this and the article named Shadow Commander covering Suleimani, the Quad Commander, great reads to get a baseline of Iran.

Yes FLAGG.. I would say Iran has had much more experience in conducting irregula/asymmetric warfare over any of us. Espeically by Poxy. They have the force fighters down.

One thing that they have over the West is the islamic idealism and all those ties. When you have a common belief and able to exploit them, it is way better and cheaper. That's why Islamic extremist group can do so well.

From what I can gather, the Iranians seem to have developed quite an interesting set of capabilities over the years.

It seems like a very rough Shia Muslim analog to US Army SF/CA operations but incorporating a willingness to partner with existing illicit networks to facilitate their foreign policy objectives.

I'd love to see Qods Force training and operational doctrine(a Farsi UW/CA field manual) and a tactical/sub unit org chart.

I would hope they are far more SS, than OSS.

Joker
07-02-2014, 17:48
They stole USSF doctrine that we threw away (not used it) from our manuals and are putting it to use all over the globe.

Flagg
07-02-2014, 21:28
They stole USSF doctrine that we threw away (not used it) from our manuals and are putting it to use all over the globe.

I get the sense( from piecing together bits and pieces and anecdotes about known and suspected Iranian special operations and proxy relationships ) that while there's a "Keystone Cops, Farsi Edition" flavour to recent Iranian external operations, I can't help but think they are in a reasonably good position to leverage a megaslum future in a number of places around the world as envisaged by David Kilcullen's "Out of the Mountains".

With how Iran's centres of gravity appear to be structured, the IRGC/Qods Force seems to possess characteristics of the German SS, the OSS, and organized criminal networks.

The German SS analog due to the IRGC's role as regime guarantor and parallel conventional military force.

The OSS analog due to the IRGC Qods Force's seemingly perpetual wartime external special operations role, recruiting from and separate to, Iran's conventional military.

The mafia analog due to the IRGC's influence/control/ownership of such a significant portion of the Iranian economy(much like Egypt/Pakistan's military and intelligence services) and their willingness to work with and leverage illicit networks around the world. The mafia analog may also apply in terms of length of service of senior commanders like Soleimani who's been running Qods Force for over 16 years.

I found this PDF on Qods that's a decent open source read:

http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/Data/articles/Art_20378/E_137_12f_2140163071.pdf

I'll revise what I posted before by saying I hope Qods Force is far more like the German SS and the mafia than the OSS.

It's probably a hard thing to quantify, but the corruption managed by the IRGC over the Iranian economy and the illicit trading conducted by Qods Force overseas would surely risk the creation of large and small domestic and external "kingdoms"/funding silos.

I could imagine such natural progressions could have a number of MICE consequences, such as:

Iranians chasing the money instead of their mission.(which might be a good thing for Iran's opponents)

Iranians chasing their ideology and having the funding silo(s) to pursue it.(which might be a very bad thing and why I fear a nuclear armed Iran with financially independent hard line factions)

Joker
07-02-2014, 21:43
^^^ yes. Look at their activities to support their country's situation due to sanctions. Where you see a lack, not void, of governance you will find them and their proxies conducting legal and illicit business. International organized crime.

MtnGoat
07-03-2014, 09:20
^^^ yes. Look at their activities to support their country's situation due to sanctions. Where you see a lack, not void, of governance you will find them and their proxies conducting legal and illicit business. International organized crime.

Heck yes they are, one of the best next to the Russians and Chinesse IMO.

Look at how the Quad Forces are significantly involved in the international drug trade, both directly and through proxies.

I remember a long time ago reading a paper/Article over how the Ayatollah Khomeini had pushed the Quads outside of their tpical roles. Quads became a robust economic body in the country. Their leaders in turn possessing holdings in a wide range of industries, such as security, energy, construction, and communications. Many of its former members currently hold senior political and bureaucratic positions inside and outside of Iran.

The Quds Force are by far the best in exporting the Islamic Revolution Ideas and organizing terrorist and subversive activity against their enemies. Once again this is done both directly and through proxies. Their Poxy is one I say the West will never match due to the Cultural differences, or for them, being the same religion.

I think the whole mafia way of running things, or inside reporting, is what makes Irregular and Unconventional Warfare such a turn off. When we are fighting the whole Trans National Threats within a region, then conducting Host nation Counter Narcoterrorism training, it may not sit will in some peoples eyes.

Just like the Quad, our Foriegn Fighter strategy needs to be relooked very hard. Just as we are with our UW strategy and training. Maybe a DIA, ODNI’s or NGIC study of the 5-Ws, but more looking at the HOW part. Looking to our National Partners and their takes and assessments within their regions.