Ambush Master
12-02-2004, 18:57
Geopolitical Diary: Thursday, Dec. 2, 2004
The U.S. Defense Department is loudly telegraphing an impending offensive in Afghanistan. Maj. Gen. Eric Olson, who has operational command of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, said Wednesday there are signs of a spring offensive being mounted by Taliban forces. The American intention is to disrupt that offensive with a preemptive attack that is to begin shortly after the inauguration of newly elected President Hamid Karzai on Dec. 7.
According to Olson, the offensive will involve virtually all U.S. forces in Afghanistan and will focus on dislodging Taliban from their winter sanctuaries -- in particular, staging raids by special operations teams -- along the Afghan-Pakistan border.
It is clear that this offensive cannot be effective if it simply stays on the Afghan side of the border. The border cannot be sealed, regardless of the number of U.S. troops deployed. Any attack that confines itself to the Afghan side will leave a large number of Taliban intact for operations in the spring. Therefore, unless the U.S. military is simply planning to churn up the countryside, which we doubt, there will be operations inside Pakistan as well.
It is interesting to note that Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf recently ordered the withdrawal of a substantial portion of Pakistani troops from the border region. At the time, this appeared to be a strange move. However, if the United States was telling him of its plan to stage an offensive in the area, Musharraf might well have thought it prudent to reduce his own footprint in the region in order to minimize the chances of clashes between U.S. and Pakistani forces -- and to provide him with the ability to deny that there were U.S. incursions going on. It should be added that, given the security issues that remain inside the Pakistani military, the United States is likely not to want to share operational information at the field level lest U.S. plans leak to the Taliban. Therefore, Olson's report allows us to make sense of Musharraf's redeployment.
But the story is more complicated than that. Russian President Vladimir Putin is on a visit to India this week. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov warned Wednesday against the "Pashtunization" of Afghanistan. According to Itar-Tass, Ivanov warned that, "This is a way to start a new war. The so-called radical members of the Taliban movement are safe and solid when moderate members are going on streets and pretend to be involved in a new Afghan government." What Ivanov was saying is that there is no such thing as a moderate Taliban. He was charging the United States with allowing Taliban members into the Afghan government in the hope of splitting the Taliban. Ivanov was saying that rather than splitting the Taliban, all the United States was doing was making the radical Taliban more secure.
The Russians seem to regard the Afghanistan offensive as a variation on the Iraqi offensive. In Iraq, the United States is trying to split the Sunnis by waging offensives against the guerrillas. If we are to believe Ivanov, the purpose of the Afghanistan offensive is not so much to defeat the Taliban as to split them. This would leave Russian non-Pashtun allies in the north in a precarious position. It would also leave the Taliban secure.
If this were the strategy, it would explain the unusual publicity given to a surprise offensive. The United States does not have the force needed to do more than disrupt the Taliban. It cannot defeat them militarily, but the United States might think it can disrupt them politically. The Russians are in the odd position of wanting the United States to take a less subtle, hard-line position and simply confront the Taliban militarily.
The Russians might find a receptive audience in India. However, the United States needs, if not an exit strategy, then a pacification strategy toward the Taliban -- and splitting them appears to be the only option. In any event, forgetting the Taliban for the moment, the offensive will also leave the United States in a good position to begin raiding deep into Pakistan in pursuit of Osama bin Laden and his command cell. To achieve that end, the United States is prepared to do a lot of horse trading.
The U.S. Defense Department is loudly telegraphing an impending offensive in Afghanistan. Maj. Gen. Eric Olson, who has operational command of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, said Wednesday there are signs of a spring offensive being mounted by Taliban forces. The American intention is to disrupt that offensive with a preemptive attack that is to begin shortly after the inauguration of newly elected President Hamid Karzai on Dec. 7.
According to Olson, the offensive will involve virtually all U.S. forces in Afghanistan and will focus on dislodging Taliban from their winter sanctuaries -- in particular, staging raids by special operations teams -- along the Afghan-Pakistan border.
It is clear that this offensive cannot be effective if it simply stays on the Afghan side of the border. The border cannot be sealed, regardless of the number of U.S. troops deployed. Any attack that confines itself to the Afghan side will leave a large number of Taliban intact for operations in the spring. Therefore, unless the U.S. military is simply planning to churn up the countryside, which we doubt, there will be operations inside Pakistan as well.
It is interesting to note that Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf recently ordered the withdrawal of a substantial portion of Pakistani troops from the border region. At the time, this appeared to be a strange move. However, if the United States was telling him of its plan to stage an offensive in the area, Musharraf might well have thought it prudent to reduce his own footprint in the region in order to minimize the chances of clashes between U.S. and Pakistani forces -- and to provide him with the ability to deny that there were U.S. incursions going on. It should be added that, given the security issues that remain inside the Pakistani military, the United States is likely not to want to share operational information at the field level lest U.S. plans leak to the Taliban. Therefore, Olson's report allows us to make sense of Musharraf's redeployment.
But the story is more complicated than that. Russian President Vladimir Putin is on a visit to India this week. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov warned Wednesday against the "Pashtunization" of Afghanistan. According to Itar-Tass, Ivanov warned that, "This is a way to start a new war. The so-called radical members of the Taliban movement are safe and solid when moderate members are going on streets and pretend to be involved in a new Afghan government." What Ivanov was saying is that there is no such thing as a moderate Taliban. He was charging the United States with allowing Taliban members into the Afghan government in the hope of splitting the Taliban. Ivanov was saying that rather than splitting the Taliban, all the United States was doing was making the radical Taliban more secure.
The Russians seem to regard the Afghanistan offensive as a variation on the Iraqi offensive. In Iraq, the United States is trying to split the Sunnis by waging offensives against the guerrillas. If we are to believe Ivanov, the purpose of the Afghanistan offensive is not so much to defeat the Taliban as to split them. This would leave Russian non-Pashtun allies in the north in a precarious position. It would also leave the Taliban secure.
If this were the strategy, it would explain the unusual publicity given to a surprise offensive. The United States does not have the force needed to do more than disrupt the Taliban. It cannot defeat them militarily, but the United States might think it can disrupt them politically. The Russians are in the odd position of wanting the United States to take a less subtle, hard-line position and simply confront the Taliban militarily.
The Russians might find a receptive audience in India. However, the United States needs, if not an exit strategy, then a pacification strategy toward the Taliban -- and splitting them appears to be the only option. In any event, forgetting the Taliban for the moment, the offensive will also leave the United States in a good position to begin raiding deep into Pakistan in pursuit of Osama bin Laden and his command cell. To achieve that end, the United States is prepared to do a lot of horse trading.