View Full Version : Russia admits that it has moved troops in Ukraine
Airbornelawyer
02-28-2014, 12:46
From the Daily Telegraph. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10668357/Russia-admits-that-it-has-moved-troops-in-Ukraine.html
Russian troops have moved into Crimea in what Moscow is calling a mission to “protect Black Sea Fleet’s positions” but which the Ukrainian government has denounced as an “armed intervention.”
The Russian foreign ministry said Friday that it had informed the Ukrainian government that armoured units from the Black Sea Fleet base near Sevastopol had entered Crimea in order to protect fleet positions.
More Ukraine reporting from the Daily Telegraph: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/
Also, updates from RFE/RL can be found here: http://www.rferl.org/contentlive/clashes-in-ukraine-live-blog-kyiv/25267783.html
BBC coverage: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26270866
ddoering
02-28-2014, 14:04
Gee, didn't see that coming. How long before they move into Ukraine proper to protect ethnic Russians.......
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=287_1393605865
LOL, wtf is Russia going to protect the fleet from? Molotov cocktails and bb gun wielding opposition with riot shields?
The Reaper
02-28-2014, 14:19
What if we had a force that could go in and help the Ukranians resist the invaders?
If only....
TR
Snaquebite
02-28-2014, 14:55
They had better watch out...Obama will draw another red line.
mojaveman
02-28-2014, 14:59
What if we had a force that could go in and help the Ukranians resist the invaders?
If only....
TR
7th Army? Oh I forgot, it doesn't exist anymore (thanks Clinton), and anyway the Russians would never have caused any problems. :rolleyes:
The troops with no marking that took control over two airports in Crimea are apparently Russian PMCs.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/02/28/exclusive-russian-blackwater-takes-over-ukraine-airport.html
Airbornelawyer
02-28-2014, 15:41
I suppose there are more than a few Ukrainians wishing Ukraine had kept its part of the Soviet nuclear deterrent.
That said, if it hits the fan, I am not sure how reliable the Ukrainian Armed Forces are, leaving aside the capabilities gap between them and the Red Army -- sorry, Russian Army.
Since coming into office, Yanukovych had been moving non-ethnic Ukrainians into key positions in the security forces, but I don't know how effective that was down the ranks. When I worked with the Ukrainians in 1996, their officer corps still had a large percentage of Soviet holdovers from other parts of the USSR. However, they had been making progress reintegrating Ukrainians from other former Soviet military districts and increasing the percentage of Ukrainian-born officers (not necessarily ethnic Ukrainians all, but at least from Ukraine).
Yanukovych's defense minister and army and air force commanders were Russians, and his navy commander, also promoted to chief of the general staff of the armed forces a week ago, was a Belarussian who had been a Soviet Navy officer in the Crimea when the USSR collapsed. I know the defense minister and Adm. Ilyin have been removed, but I don't know about the others.
But how much this goes down the ranks, and whether they have to worry if some troops will refuse to fight if called upon, or even turn on their comrades, seems like a big unknown to me.
Palin Mocked in 2008 for Warning Putin May Invade Ukraine if Obama Elected
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2014/02/28/Flashback-Palin-Mocked-in-2008-for-Warning-Putin-May-Invade-Ukraine-if-Obama-Elected-President
"During the 2008 presidential campaign, Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin warned that if Senator Barack Obama were elected president, his "indecision" and "moral equivalence" may encourage Russia's Vladimir Putin to invade Ukraine....."
so it seems like it isn't actually Russian troops, but a Russian PMC, well, the "Russian-made-Blackwater" move is sheer fucking genius on the part of the Russians.
...I fucking hate the Russian, but damn.
"These are just PMC forces.... you know, like the folks you had in Iraq, and Afghanistan, and Africa, and New Orleans.
...they are just pulling high risk security so nobody has to commit troops. Just like Blackwater and Custer Battles and Four Horsemen etc etc etc, rinse and repeat.
Nothing to see here, just contractors pulling security, move along....
Any thoughts?
Palin Mocked in 2008 for Warning Putin May Invade Ukraine if Obama Elected
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2014/02/28/Flashback-Palin-Mocked-in-2008-for-Warning-Putin-May-Invade-Ukraine-if-Obama-Elected-President
"During the 2008 presidential campaign, Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin warned that if Senator Barack Obama were elected president, his "indecision" and "moral equivalence" may encourage Russia's Vladimir Putin to invade Ukraine....."
...the problem is, the libs' will say Al Gore is wrong on global warming before they credit Sarah Palin with being correct in her opinion that water is wet and the sky is blue
Just another reason to downsize the Army to pre WWII days.
If no one saw this coming you don't know anything.
TR who are you talking about?
The Reaper
02-28-2014, 21:57
The UN of course. DUH!
Absolutely. :D
TR
I knew who and what TR was saying that's why it's in pink.
This Admin will be pushing for a UN supported action. Kerry will be right there sitting at the UN for everyone to laugh at.
ddoering
03-01-2014, 10:00
Soviet style dictator vs a community organizer. I bet I know who will win. Too bad Hillery isn't the pres. At least we would have a set of balls in the WH. On the other hand, this will make the dims look weak. Not a bad thing going into the mid-terms.
The Reaper
03-01-2014, 11:47
Soviet style dictator vs a community organizer. I bet I know who will win. Too bad Hillery isn't the pres. At least we would have a set of balls in the WH. On the other hand, this will make the dims look weak. Not a bad thing going into the mid-terms.
I doubt that the the people who would vote for them perceive it as weakness, nor would they care regardless.
TR
Utah Bob
03-01-2014, 12:16
Sudetenland/Ukraine. Same same.
ddoering
03-01-2014, 15:56
I doubt that the the people who would vote for them perceive it as weakness, nor would they care regardless.
TR
I'd bet 5% of them will. That will be more than enough to hope for change.
mojaveman
03-01-2014, 18:48
Is there any possibility that the Russians orchestrated all of the civil unrest in Ukraine so that they could have a reason to invade and occupy? Are there motives at work here that are unknown to the common person?
Is there any possibility that the Russians orchestrated all of the civil unrest in Ukraine so that they could justify invading and occupying? Are there motives at work here that are unknown to the common person?
I know Wikipedia isn't particularly popular around here but it's worth throwing in a few links:
Russian-Ukraine Natural Gas disputes:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Ukraine_gas_disputes
2010 Kharkiv Pact, Natural Gas for Naval Base Treaty:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Ukrainian%E2%80%93Russian_Naval_Base_for_Natu ral_Gas_treaty
They MAY be relevant.....
But I would think that with $60-80 billion+ in NG value flowing thru Ukraine from Russia to the EU each year...it's big money.
I'm wondering if it's actually in the best interest of Russia AND the EU(including many NATO allies) for Russia to secure Ukraine, and most particularly Ukraine's pipelines.
On one level I can see Russia/EU having aligned interests in security and continuity of natural gas supply.
On another level I can see Russia and the EU competing for Ukraine to see which sphere of influence it falls into.
----------
I'm wondering if Ukraine may represent another milestone in a big picture geopolitical shift?
In the 1980's the Reagan Administration worked hard to smash the Soviet gas pipeline to Western Europe(one of the biggest divides between the US/NATO in the 80's)....who would want to expend precious national treasure to enrich ideological/economic/military rival?
It's looking like the Reagan Doctrine played a significant role in the collapse of the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact, but did it simply delay rather than prevent Russian influence over Western Europe/EU/NATO?
Russia sells something like 160 billion cubic meters of natural gas to the EU.
Quite a few European countries have a near total dependency on Russian energy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_in_the_European_energy_sector
What leverage does the US possess over Western Europe anymore?
Are US and EU interests even still aligned in some ways?
I'm almost wondering if Russian/EU interests are strongly aligned on Ukraine......pipeline security being of existential importance, and everything else is details.
Ukraine pipeline disruption would clearly be bad for Russia and the EU, but would it necessarily be bad for the US?
What would happen if Ukraine gas pipelines were disrupted by a couple of professionals?
If Russia and the EU were hurt a bit...Russian income down, and EU expenses up..wouldn't that improve relative US industrial competitiveness and investment attractiveness?
The only aligned interest I personally see between Russia, EU, and the US is specific slices of that massive Ukrainian military stockpile(eclipsing Yugoslavia, Libya, and Syria) from leaking out.
Russia and Turkey partnered up have the means to put a better lock on regional European energy supplies.
There's been some tectonic shifts in the region since the Reagan Administration.
Reagan won that Round in Europe( while the west got fat, dumb, and lazy gloating over the victory) and this Round may have been lost.
----------
Other than keeping an eye on news for Ukraine pipeline security, it looks like a foregone conclusion that Ukraine and the EU will shift away from the US sphere of influence.
Maybe a bit pessimistic and harsh.....but I'm happy to be knocked back with some other ideas/theories.
It may sound a bit strange and disconnected, but when I think about what's happening in Ukraine......I tend to think and worry more about Venezuela.
Maybe a shift towards a Monroe Doctrine 2.0 and a Fortress US/Western Hemisphere policy, and a strong desire to neutralize any Cuban, Russian, Iranian, and/or Chinese influence over Venezuela.
Sudetenland/Ukraine. Same same.
Taking a page from the Nazi playbook ..... Host the Olympics, then invade a country.
:munchin
mark46th
03-01-2014, 22:07
Following Putin's strategy of using an existing population of ex-patriot citizens in a neighboring country, Mexican Fuerzas Commandos will be patrolling the halls of Congress tomorrow...
The Viper
03-02-2014, 00:08
Sudetenland/Ukraine. Same same.
Think of the Cold War like the First World War and now as the beginning of World War Two. There has been a 20 year cease fire and now a rearmed and never fully defeated foe has returned to expand and reestablish hegemony. Our leaders will issue hollow threats or simply appease our foe. Then one day a few years down the road it will be to late to negotiate and millions of men of my generation will march off to fight a third world war in little more than a century. Not a good possibility.
Sudetenland/Ukraine. Same same.
Think of the Cold War like the First World War and now as the beginning of World War Two. There has been a 20 year cease fire and now a rearmed and never fully defeated foe has returned to expand and reestablish hegemony. Our leaders will issue hollow threats or simply appease our foe. Then one day a few years down the road it will be to late to negotiate and millions of men of my generation will march of to fight a third world war in little more than a century. Not a good possibility.
Politicians were never any good at History Lessons. They keep making the same mistake over and over even with the book that has pictures staring them in the face.
Is there any possibility that the Russians orchestrated all of the civil unrest in Ukraine so that they could justify invading and occupying? Are there motives at work here that are unknown to the common person?
Someone has done a pretty good job if ID'ing the gear the invaders are using. Makes a good argument that the invaders are Russian Spastics(sic)..
DoS sent out letter for authorized departure from Kiev today. I have a copy if anyone wants to see it.
Airbornelawyer
03-03-2014, 12:12
Is there any possibility that the Russians orchestrated all of the civil unrest in Ukraine so that they could justify invading and occupying? Are there motives at work here that are unknown to the common person?
Someone has done a pretty good job if ID'ing the gear the invaders are using. Makes a good argument that the invaders are Russian Spastics(sic)..
People identified by Russian media as Ukrainian bandits:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BhqC7JpCQAAL8mV.jpg:large
It was pointed out on Twitter that several of them are armed with Russian-made GM-94 grenade launchers, which Ukraine does not have.
Airbornelawyer
03-03-2014, 12:20
Some photos of troops in Crimea, some from Twitter, some from Russian media propaganda articles (the ones with Crimean girls welcoming them). Their kit is definitely better than what one would expect of "local" self-defense groups. ANd they generally remain masked and refuse to speak, perhaps to not betray regional accents. Some don't have the bearing I would expect of well-trained proferssionals, but act more like typical Russian conscripts, so while there are certainly Russian SOF there, not all of them are. Probably they include a bunch of naval infantry from Sevastopol and maybe even sailors fitted out in infantry kit.
This sucks for the Ukranians, but just like Georgia a few years back, what strategic interest is there here for the US? Russia sees the Ukraine as their breadbasket and a buffer from West. What has really changed here other than now overt control of one of their puppet regimes? Other than hem and haw and some sanctions or offering NATO memberships to other former Soviet satellites, my $.02 any US administration and especially Zero's will deem there isn't enough in it for us here to challenge Russia in their backyard.
tom kelly
03-03-2014, 15:07
Do NOT Worry; WE, The USA have the Big 3 BHO, John Kerry, Joe Biden and don't forget HC on the sideline.....TK
Do NOT Worry; WE, The USA have the Big 3 BHO, John Kerry, Joe Biden and don't forget HC on the sideline.....TK
... and there I saw ....
Oh, by the way, Russia has American hostages. Anybody remember the International Space Station?
Pat
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cCNwQKhgo7M#t=71
Confrontation between Ukranian unarmed troops and Russian troops.
mojaveman
03-04-2014, 11:07
In a somber show of U.S. support for Ukraine's new leadership, Secretary of State John Kerry walked the streets Tuesday where nearly 100 anti-war protesters were gunned down by police last month, and promised beseeching crowds that American aid is on the way.
http://news.yahoo.com/us-prepares-1b-aid-package-troubled-ukraine-123023425--politics.html
In a somber show of U.S. support for Ukraine's new leadership, Secretary of State John Kerry walked the streets Tuesday where nearly 100 anti-war protesters were gunned down by police last month, and promised beseeching crowds that American aid is on the way.
Why not just save time and wire the money straight to Putin?
I understand there is likely not enough US strategic interest here to do much, but why pro-actively make hollow promises to people in harms way you have no intention of keeping? Our allies are watching in ever dangerous world.
The Reaper
03-04-2014, 12:08
Why would anyone want to be a friend of America today?
Being an enemy is much more lucrative and lower risk.
TR
Roguish Lawyer
03-04-2014, 12:37
Why would anyone want to be a friend of America today?
Being an enemy is much more lucrative and lower risk.
TR
Excellent question.
I wonder where Saudi Arabia and the GCC fit into this?
Little to no coverage on that.
With the long-term proxy battles between Soviet Union/Russia and Saudi/GCC across multiple conflicts, it will be interesting to see what they do and how it would fit into globally exported islamic extremism.
Is Russia taking a bite out of Ukraine more like Hitler taking Sudetenland or Stalin taking Eastern Poland?
Hitler was the enemy.
Stalin was the enemy, but was also the enemy of our enemy so became our temporary ally of convenience and necessity.
At what stage does Russia being chewed apart at its periphery by Saudi/GCC supported insurgencies and eaten internally by a bad economy and demographics turn from a good thing to a bad thing for the US and it's allies?
What's the greater threat:
Renewed aggression from Russia or islamic extremism?
In any case, all this global instability with the US stepping back from it's role of global cop will surely have a whole lot of people looking at the less than awesome consequence…….and looking at the shrinking number of safe havens to invest/store your money.
How come the western media never mentions that Russia has a treaty with the Ukraine concerning it's military property based there. It says that if the shit hit's the fan in the Ukraine. Russia can send in troops to secure their military assets. So far that's exactly what they been doing. We have the same treaty with a bunch of countries where our Military is based.
A good read.
"But this crisis is Putin’s Waterloo, not ours.
Which brings us to perhaps the most bizarre element of watching the Crimean situation unfold through a US-centric lens: the iron-clad certainty of the pundit class that Putin is winning and Obama is losing. The exact opposite is true."
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/03/obama-ukraine-russia-critics-credibility
Richard
1) We need Russia for supply chain to Central Asia, so let's threaten them
2) What kgoerz said
3) We thought the troop build up was just a show
Maybe if our Foreign Intel agencies spent more time on Foreigners and less time spying on Americans they'd let our leadership know what's going on.
Or maybe the leadership is incompetent or sadly both are
Either way they all look like morons and fools...
A good read.
"But this crisis is Putin’s Waterloo, not ours.
Which brings us to perhaps the most bizarre element of watching the Crimean situation unfold through a US-centric lens: the iron-clad certainty of the pundit class that Putin is winning and Obama is losing. The exact opposite is true."
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/03/obama-ukraine-russia-critics-credibility
Richard
Man, I'm glad I read that. I thought Obama had reneged on a pledge to protect Ukraine from invasion so that they'd de-nuke and disarm, then wussed out. Whew!
So, this isn't like Syria or Iran, at all? Whew!
US Warship Given Permission To Cross Bosphorus, Enter Black Sea
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-05/us-warship-given-permission-cross-bosphorus-enter-black-sea
From the article:
Yesterday it was two Russian and one Ukrainian warships which had crossed the Bosphorus in direction Crimea, today it is the Americans. As Hurriyet reports, Turkish authorities have given permission to a U.S. Navy warship to pass through the Bosphorus within the next two days as fears grow that the standoff between Russia and Ukraine and the West over Crimea could soon become militarized.
Turkish sources, speaking with the Hürriyet Daily News on March 5, declined to elaborate on the name of the U.S. warship. The same officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, however, noted that it was not the USS George H.W. Bush nuclear aircraft carrier as suggested in some news reports, as it did not meet the standards specified by the 1936 Montreux Convention in terms of weight.
The U.S. Navy ship to pass through the straits will conform to the convention’s standards, the sources said.
According to the Montreux Convention, the total weight of military ships that non-littoral states to the Black Sea may deploy to the body of water cannot exceed 45,000 tons.
As a reminder we have been tracking the CVN-77 for the past week, ever since it crossed the straits of Gibraltar and as of yesterday it was in Piraeus, Greece. It is also worth noting that while the Montreux Convention provides guidelines, it is not restrictive, which means that should the US really want to, it will have no problems getting its aircraft carrier into the Black Sea.
(continues)
mojaveman
03-05-2014, 18:41
The chances that the U.S. and Russia will clash militarily over Moscow's invasion of the Ukraine are slim to none. Ukraine isn't a member of NATO, and President Obama isn't likely to volunteer for another war.
But what if it did ever happen?
http://the week.com/article/index/257406/what-would-a-us-russia-war-look-like (http://theweek.com/article/index/257406/what-would-a-us-russia-war-look-like)
Man, I'm glad I read that. I thought Obama had reneged on a pledge to protect Ukraine from invasion so that they'd de-nuke and disarm, then wussed out. Whew!
So, this isn't like Syria or Iran, at all? Whew!
Stalin’s Successor Is Teaching: Americans Should Learn
AFJ, 4 Mar 2014
http://www.armedforcesjournal.com/stalins-successor-is-teaching/
Richard
The US had better be nice to Russia - otherwise they might stop sending our Astronauts into space - or worse - bringing them home.
The US had better be nice to Russia - otherwise they might stop sending our Astronauts into space - or worse - bringing them home.
See post 39. ;)
Pat
mojaveman
03-06-2014, 11:52
Crimea's parliment voted to join Russia on Thursday and it's Moscow-backed government set a referendum on the decision in 10 days time in a dramatic escalation of the crisis over the Ukrainian Black Sea peninsula.
Really makes one wonder if this entire ordeal wasn't orchestrated by Russia and the ethnic Russians in that region.
http://news.yahoo.com/big-power-talks-ukraine-crisis-little-progress-003521587--business.html
The Reaper
03-06-2014, 12:38
The US had better be nice to Russia - otherwise they might stop sending our Astronauts into space - or worse - bringing them home.
New opportunity for a freefall record.
TR
New opportunity for a freefall record.
TR
Gravity works every time.
ddoering
03-06-2014, 15:00
I thought O was winning....
PedOncoDoc
03-06-2014, 15:15
I thought O was winning....
That was Charlie Sheen - common mistake.
ddoering
03-06-2014, 20:50
But this is Putin's Waterloo. Oh, I guess he is Wellington.
Here we sit with the media frenzy all focused on the missing Malaysian Airlines flight, yet we have Russian President Vladimir Putin is increasing his military incursion into Crimea. Not much talk even here on PS.com over this whole Russian incursion. I'm glad I'm not one if those analyst that call Russian wouldn't invade Crimea. Guess NIE can be set next to the toilet now.
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/pro-russia-militia-seizes-ukrainian-naval-base-crimea-article-1.1726476
Yet as the world stands by and does nothing and while Ukraine struggles to defend its sovereign nation by the Russian threat. We have reports of Russian troops taking over military bases and taking full control of the Crimea Naval port. Guess that treaty the U.S. and Russian sign back in 1994 or 1996 matters now. NOT!!
Well there are plans for Ukraine to hold a joint military exercises with the United States and Britain.
Yet we now have a Russian setting there eyes elsewhere. Once again using that they have to protect ethic Russians bring mistreated. Okay if they have been mistreated, then why now?
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSBREA2I1J620140319?irpc=932
We have an Administration that has set a precedents with its inability to secure a SOFA in Iraq and will likely be the same in Afghanistan. Look at what they have done with the other "crisis" areas they have had to deal with. I speaking of Lebanon/Israel/Syria/Egypt and Iran.
Then we have our so called allies that say they support us yet backdoor us. Yet even when they were on "our side." Let's just point out how well the Saudis trust the U.S. with their 3 BILLION "aid" to both side of the Suni/Shia Poxy war in Syria/Lebanon.
Yet we can roll down in Africa and get even more examples of their inapt abilities. So now we have major issues going on in the old Baltic States and what will the US do? The typical stance, inapt and inability to be the "leader country" in the world.
Well to the New World Order!!
Roguish Lawyer
03-19-2014, 19:30
I am an ethnic Russian. Obama is mistreating the shit out of me. Think Vlad might help a brotha out? :munchin
The Reaper
03-19-2014, 19:31
A real shame we don't have any armored units left in Europe, or very many troops.
Good thing the AF and Navy can project power there and show them who is boss, deter Russian aggression, defend Ukranian soil, that sort of thing.
Thanks to our exalted leadership, for their foresight, prudent resourcing, and realistic planning.
I am an ethnic Russian. Obama is mistreating the shit out of me. Think Vlad might help a brotha out? :munchin
I got your back, Counsel.
TR
I am an ethnic Russian. Obama is mistreating the shit out of me. Think Vlad might help a brotha out? :munchin
:D
Pat
TR you bring up a very important point. No Armor or a Tanks in Europe. So with that fact, OSD and the JCS should be using the Joint Exercise in Ukraine to get orders for 3rd ID to start loading Ships. Even if we never send them to Ukranie, start also backdoor to move them to Germany for maneuvers at Graf. :D
But doing something is better than what we have been doing. But wait we have trends going on. :munchin
Yes Broadsword we have taken it in the backside. Partly because of our European friends feel they can take if themselves. Looking more and like the will have to see how great their EU is going to hold together.
Streck-Fu
03-20-2014, 06:39
Is Estonia next? LINK (http://www.businessinsider.com/robert-evans-moscow-concerned-over-russians-in-estonia-2014-3#ixzz2wTiyh5l0)
GENEVA (Reuters) - Russia signaled concern on Wednesday at Estonia's treatment of its large ethnic Russian minority, comparing language policy in the Baltic state with what it said was a call in Ukraine to prevent the use of Russian.
Russia has defended its annexation of Ukraine's Crimea peninsula by arguing it has the right to protect Russian-speakers outside its borders, so the reference to linguistic tensions in another former Soviet republic comes at a highly sensitive moment.
ddoering
03-20-2014, 10:14
Putin must have studied Hitler.
Is Estonia next? LINK (http://www.businessinsider.com/robert-evans-moscow-concerned-over-russians-in-estonia-2014-3#ixzz2wTiyh5l0)
I say yes.. Since no one is doing anything now.
Putin must have studied Hitler.
Yeap and Stalin
Looks like EU is doing what they can't with the power they can project. Got to love their power too.
http://www.euronews.com/2014/03/20/merkel-g8-no-longer-exists-as-eu-plans-further-sanctions-on-russia/
Is Estonia next?
Estonia is NATO, Putin is evil not crazy.
IMHO Europe was so pissy with our troops being there, including Germany we should move them into Poland and other former eastern block countries. If they don't want us there on bases then screw em, let the Russians have them then Russia and China can fight it out over world power and we can sit back, sell to both and get rich as hell off the war.
I'm with you.. EU are a bunch of puss. Removal from the G8, and threading to move this year G8 out of Russian! WoW.
Yeah Russian you can have Estonia. Yet we send troops to Poland !!
Estonia is NATO, Putin is evil not crazy.
I'm not sure Estonia being a member of NATO is going to give Putin much pause. Especially given our responses thus far to his foray into Crimea. Despite everything that being a member of NATO entails, it would seem Putin believes he knows his enemy.
Pericles
03-21-2014, 12:58
Putin must have studied Hitler.
I make it Rheinland 1935. Sudetenland coming up next. With maybe a detour to Austria.
entire post
There are definitely risks to ignoring the lessons of history, and benefits to nipping tyrants in the bud before they become too powerful. Vlad is proof of what happens when a wolf rules a country.
People have mentioned comparisons to the expansive policies of the 3rd Reich, I think this is a different situation. Russia's economy is a one trick pony, dependent on energy prices, they are rapidly losing population, they have no where near the conventional military strength they once possessed, and several of their states would break away if they sensed enough weakness. Putin knows all of this, I think his aggression is a sign of desperation not expansion. Russia cannot feed herself without the Ukraine and cannot afford to lose control here, or show weakness to her potential break away states.
Overt control over the former puppet regime in Ukraine is one thing. There is a big difference between terrorizing the Ukrainians and taking on the military and economic might of NATO. The latter is suicide for Putin's regime and he knows it.
If the US is willing to freeze all Russian assets, and the EU is willing to take some short term economic pain in the form of higher natural gas prices and completely embargo Russian natural gas exports, Putin will fold like a cheap tent, economic conditions in Russia would be unsustainable for his regime.
At the same time, the points TR made about our lack of armor in the area are troublesome, democracies tend to forget tyrants play by different rules if there hasn't been a big war in decades. Economic policy is fine, but needs to backed by force if needed.
Putin is trying to stop the bleeding and maintain his status quo. All of his gaudy stunts, op-eds, the macho crap, grand standing over Syria, the ostentatious olympics etc. are the hallmarks of a con artist with a weak hand. If Russia can't convince her remaining population to stay and diversify the economy, it will fragment even further.
If Putin moves on NATO then all bets are off, he has lost his mind and must be ended, but frankly I think at this point the greater threat to America is internal, the debt we are incurring and the divisive instances of blatant disregard for the constitution we are seeing in Connecticut with gun rights for example.
Ukraine Says Kremlin Is Stirring Up Eastern Ukraine As Pretext For Invasion
http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/4970178
Looks like something is going on here. I say start looking in Estonia and other boarder countries.
Very coincidental that one year and a few months after we remove the armor from Europe and all-of-a-sudden Putin is acting up.
So Europe didn't want us in there, and wanted us to leave because they felt they could take care of themselves against any threats from Russia? Is this all of Europe, or just countries like Germany for example, but not countries like Poland and Czech Republic who felt very betrayed by Obama's undoing the missile defense? I do not think we should betray those countries. Poland was one of the countries that really stuck with us in the Iraq war from my understanding.
I am very amazed by the arguments by the administration about how getting arms to Ukraine would be a possible "provocation" of Putin (!!!). Provocation? How about the thinking being how do Putin's actions provoke the United States? Putin already crossed the line. The idea that giving arms to Ukraine when Putin already has invaded is a provocation strikes me as ridiculous. HE provoked US.
As for if Putin goes for Estonia, well Biden promised the U.S. "will respond" and he said it in as firm a manner as he can. So if Putin invades Estonia and Obama does nothing substantive, well then we might as well just withdraw from the whole world, because the concept of American security and being an American ally will be a laughingstock. China will feel free to just make a go for all the islands it wants and Taiwan (a way they could do it is by getting a puppet government installed, they don't need to necessarily invade the country with a big formal invasion or anything). And North Korea will threaten the daylights out of South Korea. Israel will feel all alone and that could be very bad in terms of how it might lead them to act. And so forth. Possibility could then be a war in Europe, a war in the Middle East, and a war in Asia. Some say Putin may well have the goal of "breaking" NATO and I wouldn't put it past him if he thinks that NATO is a paper tiger.
The lesson is becoming clear:
Be an ally of Russia and you get money and arms. Putin will do his best to keep you in power, to serve as a check on America and as an expansion of Russian power.
Be an ally of the United States and you get...well, nothing, 'cause the U.S. leadership is afraid of "provoking" Putin who already crossed the line.
One question I have---even though we have no heavy armor in Europe, if Russia tries to invade Estonia, could we do things like bomb out roads and bridges to try to stop the Russian advance?
BLUE - We still have military forces in Europe, UK, Italy, Turkey and new in Romania. But yes yours right over how we thumbed or noses to new NATO Counties of the old Eastern European counties. As Democratic leaders say that our image and reputation is secure in the eyes of the world. That our image with more damage and tarnished after the invasion of Iraq in 2003 then what it stands currently. I call BS on this.
Your China assessment is good and something wet have to worry about. They have a great eastern and western expansion campaign plan. But this is a different topic and discussed separately.
Europe, if Russia tries to invade Estonia, could we do things like bomb out roads and bridges to try to stop the Russian advance?
If you're talking about something like we did in Bosnia under Clinton in 1994-1996 I don't know. Don't think we have a Administration currently that would do this against a super power - against Russian many.
Broadsword2004,
Russia does have farmlands, but their geographic location results in a very short growing season and renders them very susceptible to crop shortage, a great deal of their food comes from the Ukraine, just like Kashmir for India, and California for the US. If you can't eat all other bets for civilization are off.
Putin cannot win a conventional war with NATO, even a stalemate would also be an opportunity for his breakaway republics to escape and Russia would fragment further, this is exactly the fate he is trying to avoid.
To be perfectly blunt threats to Western Europe are more strategically, economically and culturally relevant to the US than a snakepit of an Islamic civil war in Syria. Obamas bluff was called on Syria, which is bad precedent, but as the superpower status quo is our goal, there is a very good case the Syrian rebels are even worse for US interests. At the end of the day if we decided to retro-actively bomb Syria tomorrow what could Putin do? Absolutely nothing, he is the one bluffing from a position of weakness. America is not weaker than Russia in any way, we just currently have a cream puff at the helm.
I believe even Zero's hand would be forced in the NATO attacked scenario, as unlikely as it is. If you are right and there is a NATO hierarchy then it and the EU, and the Euro all collapse. That is back to the future 1914 for Europe and unacceptable.
IMHO Putin is in a real dilemma if he loses control over Ukraine to the west he loses contol over the food and will have NATO forces closer to Moscow than Fayetville is to DC. But if he pushes it too far he cannot survive a guerilla war or an energy embargo. His gambit is simple but risky. He is betting the EU will not embargo his natural gas and risk the resulting economic hit of increased energy prices over the Ukraine. So far he is right, but if the Ukraine turns into a new Chechen type insurgency war for him, he is in deep Kim Chee.
ddoering
03-23-2014, 12:18
O hasn't played his Ace-in-the-Hole yet. He can offer the Russians food stamps, WIC vouchers, phones, and the right to vote in our elections.
The Reaper
03-23-2014, 14:16
Drill baby, drill!!
Start selling more natural gas and oil to the Europeans.
Embargo the Russians. Cut their exports, and imports.
Win-win.
TR
GratefulCitizen
03-23-2014, 20:18
Drill baby, drill!!
Start selling more natural gas and oil to the Europeans.
Embargo the Russians. Cut their exports, and imports.
Win-win.
TR
US oil production hasn't been this high since Reagan was president.
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W
Natural gas production is the highest it's ever been.
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9010us2A.htm
The profitable part of fracking is condensate.
It allows what would otherwise be sub-economic natural gas reserves to be produced.
Natural gas is currently being overproduced in the US.
Much is simply being flared.
An added bonus to the condensate: Canadian tar sands.
It gets sent north and facilitates Canadian oil production.
All of this does not bode well for nations whose economies depend on oil and gas exports.
(Russia and the Middle East oil states)
Russia is also suffering from demographic decline.
This may be a move of desperation rather than empire-building.
:munchin
bravo22b
03-29-2014, 17:29
One question I have---even though we have no heavy armor in Europe, if Russia tries to invade Estonia, could we do things like bomb out roads and bridges to try to stop the Russian advance?
I'm no strategic planner, but I have spent some time in Estonia. If the Russians did invade, I don't think there is much we can do to stop the Russian advance in Estonia, at least not in time to help the Estonians much. It's not a very big country, and it's very flat. It's fairly swampy in some places and has forests that probably aren't passable with armor quickly, but I have to believe the Russians know how to get armor across flat swampy lowlands without using the roads, if necessary. A blitzkrieg drive across Estonia would probably get Russian armor to the coast in a couple days, if not one day. Or they'll just take the eastern section that is more heavily ethnic Russian and call it a day.
I also wouldn't be surprised in the least if the Russians decided to airdrop or airland troops, thus showing all the naysayers that retaining an airborne forced entry capability is not obsolete.
I have a very high respect for the Estonians. I think they would fight, and they could probably make life difficult after the fact, but I don't think they could withstand a Russian attack for long enough for NATO to respond with much more than airpower. And given the current political environment, I'm not sure our leadership has the guts to commit real airpower to fight the Russians fast enough to make a difference.
I hope it doesn't happen...the Estonians are good people, and they made their choice to align with the West, and have reaped the economic and social benefits. If we abandon them, shame on us.
I'm not saying that NATO wouldn't honor Article 5, but I'm just not sure any NATO country is decisive enough to act quickly. That said, the other Baltic countries and the Nordic countries know that if one of them gets invaded, the rest are just as much in danger. They might jump in while the bigger NATO countries try to decide what to do.
The Reaper
03-29-2014, 19:31
If you were a neighbor of Russia, now might be a really good time to stop antagonizing them.
At least temporarily.
TR
How about 10th group helping to train the National Guard of Ukraine into effective soldiers? If Russia complains, we'll point out that these guys with no recognizable markings are just polite people helping to stabilize the country.
http://www.cnn.com/2014/04/12/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/
I wonder where these "polite pro Russian activists" got their gear....but like Putin said "you can buy this at almost any store".
The video below kind of shows the mentality of the people at Donetsk.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FpdCvuf-ZOk
So seems like Russian Forces are developing the situation into their direction.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-crisis-prorussians-step-up-attacks-in-the-east-9256666.html
mojaveman
04-14-2014, 12:25
A Russian fighter aircraft made repeated low-altitude, close-up passes near a U.S. ship in the Black Sea over the weekend, the Pentagon said on Monday, condemning the action at a time of heightened U.S.-Russian tensions over the Ukraine.
http://news.yahoo.com/u-condemns-russia-planes-passes-near-u-ship-16139347--sector.html
A Russian fighter aircraft made repeated low-altitude, close-up passes near a U.S. ship in the Black Sea over the weekend, the Pentagon said on Monday, condemning the action at a time of heightened U.S.-Russian tensions over the Ukraine.
http://news.yahoo.com/u-condemns-russia-planes-passes-near-u-ship-16139347--sector.html
That was not Russian aircraft but merely Self defense militia air force peace bringer purchased at your local aircraft dealer.
Conversation between GRU member and a rebel in the city of Slavyansk.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xVDx-TqeWj4#t=31
Conversation between GRU member and a rebel in the city of Slavyansk.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xVDx-TqeWj4#t=31
Could you provide a synopsis? I don't speak the language
PedOncoDoc
04-14-2014, 13:36
Could you provide a synopsis? I don't speak the language
Run the transcript at the link through google translate and you should be GTG.
HTH
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w2nGLiBzWZc&feature=youtu.be
The propaganda rep of the Ukrainian side posted a translation but some of the verbs are not correct when translating. It should give you a general idea of what the conversation is about.
Could you provide a synopsis? I don't speak the language
I'd tried to translate an BBC article, so it is not my own text, but I have same thoughts.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/russian/international/2014/04/140414_ukraine_intelligence_recording.shtml
Audio track that the SBU published in YouTube, consists of several fragments of telephone conversations. In the first , which occurs in Slavyansk , one man asks another to give his men Makarov pistols and ammunition for them.
In three other fragments of conversations involved a man named Pasha with the callsign "Shooter". In the first one gives to another military designation under surveillance on the roads, in response to which he requests to send reinforcements.
In the third snippet of conversation "Shooter" report to certain "Alexander" from Moscow. "We do not know who we crumble , but someone serious . Crumble very serious group. With some very serious, weighty people", - he says.
In response to this "Alexander" reported that to them from Lugansk pops "company with combat experience". "Shooter" asks them to take a "more anti-tank weapons".
The following conversation "Alexander" gives an indication to the deputy of "Shooter" speaking with a Ukrainian accent , said in a live LifeNews successful repelling all attacks and presented demands to the authorities in Kiev. Among these requirements, according to the "Alexander", should be a ban on the decision in Parliament on government borrowing "without a 2/3 majority of regions".
Last piece is titled "Report of the commando group commander". In it "Shooter" reports of the shelling of the "three VIP-class cars ", whereby been killed or wounded a senior representative of Ukrainian security forces.
"With whom should you hit" - says "Alexander" and finally congratulates with a Palm Sunday .
Fake?
According to Acting President Alexander Turchinov during the antiterrorist operation in Slavyansk Sunday Special Forces captain died SBU "Alpha" Gennady Bilichenko and several security personnel were injured.
"This morning Slovyansk column of the security forces, who had the job to protect the citizens of this holiday Sunday, opened fire from automatic weapons. Criminals opened fire, hiding behind the human shield of the locals defrauded Russian propaganda", - said in a Turchinov’s statement, published Sunday evening .
A source in the Russian Defense Ministry told RIA Novosti that the Security Service of Ukraine published the record is fabricated .
"Not only with the authors of this opus, but also their puppeteers wished would be better to teach the material part of the instruction and exploration. A slang such as used in "super intercept" we use only in the child wargame of "Zarnitsa"- said the agency interlocutor.
The same opinion is shared by the chief editor of "National Defense" Igor Korotchenko . "Operational level of Ukrainian KGB fell through the floor, central SBU unit cleaned with every change of government, the real professionals there today is out , so here is a "masterpiece" , from which protrude ears (Valentine) Nalivaychenko (SBU head) - maximum, that they are now able to"- quoted by RIA Novosti Korochenko.
mojaveman
04-15-2014, 22:53
Poland: NATO should send troops to east Europe and ignore Russia's objections.
Russia's military intervention in Ukraine's Crimea peninsula makes it vital that NATO station significant numbers of troops in eastern Europe and ignore any objections Russia might have in this respect, Poland's defense minister said.
Is there going to be a new Cold War in Europe? Does history really repeat itself? Maybe we should left the 7th Army intact.
http://news.yahoo.com/poland-nato-send-troops-east-europe-ignore-russias-114236736--sector.html
Maskirovka?
What we know about the ‘grotesque’ leaflet handed out to Jews in Donetsk
By Adam Taylor Updated: April 17 at 3:18 pm
A leaflet calling for Jews to register has reportedly been handed out in Ukraine's eastern region of Donetsk. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has commented on the letter, saying that it is "not just intolerable; it's grotesque, is beyond unacceptable."
But what do we know about the leaflet? Let's break it down.
Where did this story come from?
It appears that the first English-language publication to report on the leaflet's existence was YNetNews, an Israeli news site that published an article on it late last night.
YNetNews wrote:
A leaflet distributed in Donetsk, Ukraine calling for all Jews over 16 years old to register as Jews marred the Jewish community's Passover festivities Monday (Passover eve), replacing them with feelings of concern.
The leaflet demanded the city's Jews supply a detailed list of all the property they own, or else have their citizenship revoked, face deportation and see their assets confiscated.
YNetNew's story was picked up by USA Today this afternoon and has since gone viral.
Did the Ukrainian press not pick up on it before?
Yes, they did.
On Tuesday, the well-regarded Web site Novosti.dn.ua reported on the leaflets, writing that they were handed out by three unidentified men carrying the flag of the Russian Federation. The site also reported that there was speculation that the men were trying to provoke a conflict and then blame the conflict on pro-Russia separatists.
What, exactly, does the leaflet say? Photographs of the leaflet are circulating widely on Twitter.
The Interpreter's Paul Gobles gave this informal translation:
Respected citizens of Jewish nationality! Given that the leaders of the Jewish community of Ukraine support the Banderite junta in Kiev and are hostile to the Orthodox Donetsk Republic and its citizens, the Main Staff of the Donetsk Republic orders the following:
All citizens of Jewish nationality over the age of 16 who live on the territory of the sovereign Donetsk Republic must before May 3, 2014, appear before the Donetsk Republic commissar for nationality affairs in Room 514 of the government’s offices. The cost of registration is 50 US dollars.
In addition to the sum of 50 US dollars, those registering must bring their passports so that their religious affiliation can be entered, documents about the members of their families, and also notarized documents about all the real estate and means of transportation you own.
Those who refuse to register will be deprived of citizenship and forcibly expelled from the republic and their property will be confiscated.
So, who is behind the leaflet?
That's not exactly clear.
The leaflet is written in Russian and clearly had Russia's national symbol on it, as well as the symbol of the Donetsk People's Republic, the state declared by pro-Russians separatists. It bears the signature of the chairman of Donetsk's temporary government, Denis Pushilin. However, there are conflicting reports from Pushilin about the letter. According to the Times of Israel, Pushilin has denied involvement with the letter, though YNetNews reports that he has admitted that his men may have handed out the letter.
And who received the leaflet? Again, this isn't exactly clear.
The Times of Israel cites reports from Novosti.dn.ua that suggests that the leaflets were given out by masked men wearing military uniforms and carrying a Russian flag Tuesday. The Post's Anthony Faiola has spoken to a couple of members of the Jewish community in Donetsk, who said that a few dozen of the leaflets were handed out a couple of days ago.
So, what is going on?
While the content of the letter is obviously offensive, there are plenty of reasons to be a little cautious aboutthis story, and groups like the Anti-Defamation League have been careful to add in news releases that they were "skeptical about the flier’s authenticity."
It certainly seems possible that the flier was the work of pro-Russia separatists, working with or without the support or knowledge of Pushilin. At this stage, however, it is also possible that the letter was written by someone seeking to discredit Pushilin and the separatist government, as Novosti.dn.ua reported.
How worried should we be?
Our reporters in Donetsk have spoken to members of the Jewish community, who say that while the letters do appear to have been handed out, it doesn't seem to be a big deal.
Whatever actually happened, there is one clear takeaway here: With both sides accusing the other of being "Nazis," and accusing the other of anti-Semitism, Eastern Ukraine's Jewish community is having an especially tough time during the Ukrainian crisis.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2014/04/17/what-we-know-about-the-grotesque-leaflet-handed-out-to-jews-in-donetsk//?print=1
mojaveman
04-19-2014, 22:24
Poland's defense minister has said U.S. ground forces will be sent to Poland to expand NATO's presence there as events continue to unfold in neighboring Ukraine, The Washington Post reported.
I still think we screwed up by not leaving some type of reasonable presence in Europe.
http://news.yahoo.com/us-ground-forces-sent-poland-report-says-155733017.html
[QUOTE=SpNkid;547898]I'd tried to translate an BBC article, so it is not my own text, but I have same thoughts.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/russian/international/2014/04/140414_ukraine_intelligence_recording.shtml
YOUR POST/QUOTE]
SPnkid thanks for posting this. Also google translate works pretty good too. It can do whole articles at a time.
Love the pro-Kremlin media lead expert opinions, which called the audio recording a fake. You have got to love this statement too. "We do not interfere in the internal affairs of Ukraine - it is contrary to our interests. There our agents nor GRU or FSB," - said Lavrov. Really so I guess your russian spetsnaz soldiers in nondescripts civilian clothes or unmarked Ukrainian uniforms isn't interfering with internal affairs of Ukraine. BS flag number three!
IMO "Shooter" and Alexander is real, but I do question the one sided recording as the YouTube video "shows."
Also to note is that Russian Parliament authorize the use of military force in eastern Ukraine last week. So Putin now has a new authority that he can broadcast to the world and action on if needed.
http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/world/2014/04/17/putin-hopes-russian-troops-won-sent-ukraine/p8tS89qjO9X61Bdboe1dUK/story.html
I am convinced that both sides are tells lies. Problem is to allocate the facts in a sea of conflicting information, to separate facts from opinions and then on the basis of these facts to add up picture of events. Interestingly, the events taking place now almost no different fundamentally from the events that took place this winter in western and central Ukraine, but its assessment, that being imposed, is different absolutely.
Maskirovka?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2014/04/17/what-we-know-about-the-grotesque-leaflet-handed-out-to-jews-in-donetsk//?print=1
It's fake.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WJZpqCkH58s
Taxis driver's point of view while driving in Slavyansk. English subtitles included.
My $.02 "Nikolai the Tatar" boasting at 1:08 in the video accompanying the article, if translated correctly, should be very careful what he wishes for...
(CNN) -- Ukrainian security forces battled pro-Russian militants in the eastern flashpoint city of Slovyansk on Monday as Kiev tackled the gunmen who have overrun the region.
Military gains were evident on the main highway into Slovyansk, a rebel stronghold, as government forces moved in.
A CNN team on the ground saw a substantial number of militants bolster their defensive positions and checkpoints inside the city. One civilian car was hit in the fighting, its exterior damaged by bullet holes.
At a local hospital, the CNN team saw several people injured from the heavy clashes. One woman had been shot in the head, probably in a crossfire, and two pro-Russian militants were also brought in.
Ukraine's Interior Ministry said four people were killed and nearly 30 injured in the city. It quoted local residents as saying the attackers had shot at residential buildings and set them on fire. Militants blamed Ukrainian forces for the civilian casualties.
In a separate statement, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry said a military helicopter was shot down "during a combat mission and patrolling in the area" of Slovyansk on Monday, but the pilots survived after it crashed into a river. They were later rescued.
Ukraine's embattled new leaders have launched their most intensive effort yet to dislodge pro-Russian separatists who have reportedly seized government buildings in nearly a dozen cities and towns.
Kiev authorities describe the separatists as "terrorists." But the rebels say they are defending Russian-speaking areas of the east against Ukrainian "fascists" trying to root out Russian influence in the country.
In a statement Monday, Russia's Foreign Ministry accused the Kiev government of "continuing a war against the people of their own country."
"We again urge the Kiev organizers of terror against their own people to come to their senses, stop the bloodshed, withdraw troops and sit down, finally, at the negotiating table to start a normal dialogue on ways to resolve the political crisis," the ministry said.
Many experts say Russia may be provoking unrest in eastern Ukraine to justify an incursion.
Riot-hit Odessa
The uprisings began when President Viktor Yanukovych, a supporter of closer ties with Moscow, was toppled by demonstrations led by pro-Western figures in February, namely in Kiev, the capital. Violence soon erupted in the east and south of the country, escalating dramatically last week.
On Sunday, pro-Russian sympathizers smashed their way into a police station in the Black Sea port city of Odessa, demanding their detained comrades be released.
In another victory for a violent crowd in east Ukraine and yet another humiliation for state authorities, police didn't try to stop them. Instead, they offered the crowd a deal, releasing 67 alleged enemies of the state if the furious crowd went home.
Sunday's storming of the Odessa police station -- just two days after more than 40 people were killed in a street battle and deadly blaze in the city -- was one more example of how Ukraine's new Western-backed leaders are struggling to maintain law and order in the south and east of the country.
It also raises questions about the ability of the army and police to confront an uprising that Kiev says is backed by Moscow -- an accusation the Kremlin denies.
The men released Sunday had been detained over the weekend after bloody clashes between supporters and opponents of Russia in Odessa on Friday, which ended in the deadly blaze. Forty-six people were killed in the bloodshed -- the deadliest since Yanukovych was ousted.
Video posted on YouTube appeared to show supporters of Kiev's government throwing Molotov cocktails at the building where pro-Russian separatists had reportedly taken up positions. The footage, which CNN could not independently confirm, showed people sitting on ledges trying to escape the fire and thick smoke.
In an attempt to reassert Kiev's authority, Ukrainian interim Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk went to Odessa to appeal for unity while accusing Russia of provoking the clashes. Ukraine's Cabinet said it would offer financial assistance to the victims' families.
"This is the wake-up call for the entire country, for reconciliation. We need to realize that Russians want to eliminate our country," Yatsenyuk said.
His message is a tough sell in a city where so many now believe people who speak Russian are being killed and arrested by forces loyal to the Ukrainian government.
Military action
Ukraine's government reported some progress over the weekend in its military campaign. Officials said security forces had regained control of a TV tower in Kramatorsk, some 10 miles (16 kilometers) south of Slovyansk.
Residents in Kramatorsk reported hearing gunfire and a CNN team on the outskirts of Kramatorsk saw troop carriers moving toward the city center Saturday. Amateur video posted online -- the authenticity of which could not be confirmed by CNN -- showed burned buses, plumes of smoke and residents calmly observing it all.
Saturday actually featured a rare bright spot in the volatility: the release of seven international military observers and five Ukrainians from the Defense Ministry who had been held hostage for eight days in Slovyansk.
However, in another challenge to Kiev, separatist leader Valeriy Bolotov in Luhansk declared a state of emergency and announced the formation of a "South-East" army for the entire region. In a video statement aired on local stations, Bolotov introduced a curfew, a ban on political parties and his expectation that local law enforcement officials will take an oath of allegiance to the people of Luhansk.
In Donetsk, separatists say they are preparing their own referendum on May 11 to ask residents whether they want sovereignty from Ukraine -- an echo of events that led to Moscow wresting Crimea from Kiev.
Denis Pushilin, the self-declared chairman of the Donetsk People's Republic, told CNN the question on the ballot paper would read: "Do you support the act of state sovereignty of the Donetsk Republic?" to which voters can respond with "Yes" or "No." He said enough ballot papers had already been printed to hold the vote.
Tensions with Russia
Separatists -- many of them of Russian descent -- say they believe the government in Kiev is illegitimate because it formed after what they call the illegal ousting of Yanukovych in February. Officials in Kiev accuse Moscow of meddling by supporting the separatists.
NATO has estimated that up to 40,000 Russian troops are now near the border with Ukraine, which has made Kiev's government and neighboring nations wary of invasion. A senior U.S. official told CNN on Monday that the latest intelligence still showed 40,000 to 50,000 Russian troops on the border.
"There has been no major change in force disposition or readiness and no indications of preparations for an invasion," the official said, adding that the U.S. continues to assess the situation. The troops are so close to the border, an invasion could happen with little or no warning, the official said.
Russia and the West squared off diplomatically over the fate of Ukraine when Moscow annexed the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea in March after a hastily called referendum and Yanukovych's ouster. He was pushed from office after months of protests by people upset that he had turned away from Europe in favor of Moscow.
French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius warned Monday there could be fresh sanctions on Russia if Ukraine's presidential elections do not take place on May 25.
Russia has condemned Kiev's military action in the volatile east.
Dmitry Peskov, Russian President Vladimir Putin's spokesman, said Russia's government had received thousands of calls since Friday from people in southeastern Ukraine. The callers described the situation as "horrendous" and pleaded for Russia's involvement. "Most of the people literally demand active help from Russia," he said.
The government in Kiev is bracing for further unrest in the run-up to May 9, a national holiday to commemorate the end of the second world war. Interim President Oleksandr Turchynov told local TV that checkpoints had been set up around the capital in case of possible "provocations."
http://www.cnn.com/2014/05/05/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQGRJN4Radk
Simon Ostrovsky talks about being kidnapped in Donetsk.