PDA

View Full Version : Team Selection, Scenario One


The Reaper
11-03-2013, 17:59
A new scenario, upon request and after watching the American Blackout TV show (admittedly a flawed presentation).

The balloon has gone up, the Feds are declaring martial law, shutting down the banks and infrastructure, and you are beating feet while heading to your bug out location or holing up at home.

You are given twelve hours advance warning of the impending martial law enforcement. You are able to make a shopping run (within your cash on hand) and hunker down at home, or alternately, load up your vehicle with everything you can afford on your "wish list", and gas up on the way out of town. So if you have properly prepared, you should be fairly well stocked. Remember though. One year's food supply for a family of four drops to six months worth with four additions to your group. The duration of the state of emergency and the degree of outside support is uncertain. It may last a year or more, but it will be at least four weeks.

While we can cover last minute what to buy and what to bring lists again, the intent of this thread is whether you contact additional personnel to come with you or try and rough it out alone.

Obviously, your immediate family is going to stay/go with you.

Who do you bring (or invite to your home to ride the storm out) or collect on the way?

What criteria do you use to select them? Is there some sort of selection and assessment process? Or will you take their word for it?

Do you believe that you will be better off alone or with additional team members?

Does anyone think they would prefer to go it solo, with no family or friends?

If you are inviting others to join you, do they have their own supplies, or are you planning to provide for them?

Will you recruit people with useful skills? What if they are travelling with their families? What if they are travelling with their families and have few, if any resources with them? A physician could be handy to have. One with a wife and seven kids and little else may not, unless you are exceedingly well-prepared.

What would you consider the minimum number of people you need to do the chores and provide security for your group? Have you considered the skills you might need in your group? What is the maximum number you think you can provide for?

Will you try and feed the people you encounter along the way, or your neighbors, if you stay home? How about strangers you encounter? If they have kids?

No right or wrong answers, as long as you can justify your decisions.

We will examine a couple of additional scenarios, if this is well-received.

Thanks!

TR

Sdiver
11-03-2013, 18:51
Wow ... This is going to be good.

I can say, with at least 12 hours notice, I would make a couple of attempts of people whom I know and trust to attempt a meet/link up and travel together. They of course would be bringing to the plate various skills and have in their own way(s) prepped for just such a scenario.

If I was unable to get into contact with them, I would be cautious and selective on who I brought into my area. General aptitudes I would want someone to have would be, the ability to survive in the out of doors (some family who was able to get out of town just in time and the only time they've ever seen an animal up close was when they went on a trip to the zoo wouldn't cut it), someone who is prior (or AD) military would be a huge plus. This would instill in the fact that they know some semblance of order, discipline and team work. That last one, Team Work, being the most compelling aptitude. Do they know what true team work is, or are they more prone to rock the boat and be an antagonist?

As far as individual skills would go, yes, having someone with medical skills would be huge. MDs, DDSs, heck even a Psychiatrist (they have an MD) would be top notch. An electrician and a mechanic would rank near the top as well. Anyone with any type of vocational type training would be beneficial as well.

If I were to meet, anyone without those types of qualifications, I don't think I'd be too inclined to bring them in.
"What is it that you do?"
"I was a secretary in a legal office."
"Okay, thank you. Best of luck to you."

The big thing would be trust. Can you trust the people whom you've connected up with? Are they the type to turn on you when they feel the time would be right? Being a judge of character would be the biggest thing I think we'd all have to rely on in a scenario like this.

Pete
11-03-2013, 19:41
I'm screwed.

I'd be dragging along four screamers to begin with.

Unless, unless - there is a young unattached 18D and an 18B in the area that wants to throw in with us. You'd have to bring your own MRE's.

I'll have to ride it out in place and make sure the neighbors are well armed and organized. Best guess on my block is 50% active or retired - mostly retired.

35NCO
11-03-2013, 21:02
I saw the show as well, and as it is not really related, it did bring up some previous thoughts I had to these scenarios. (NOT IN ANY WAY A "PREPPER")

I think the reality of the whole "bug out vs bunker down" scenario is solely based on location. Some thoughts from my personal experience of a few minor disasters.

One point that show made which was pretty good to the new trend of "American peppers" is that if you spend a lot of time setting up your "bug out location" in the open, people are likely to notice. It especially highlights the aspects of considering the remoteness of the site and any tactical considerations. If it has neighbors at all, it will not work. If it can be seen, it likely will not work. Unless you can somehow work with your neighbors. That also opens the door to the trust issues as well, whom will they tell and are they useful at all?

Another issue: Travel to a "bug out"...

When I was in DC area during the earthquake (last year?) I was maybe 10 miles from home and completely unable to drive, let alone move my car for hours. I ended up walking home. Some roads remained locked up for a few days afterwards from abandoned cars. It took that moment to dawn on me that getting out of a city area like that is pretty much impossible in a car or truck in ANY disaster or otherwise. This was also not IN the city but more outside getting closer to Baltimore. On foot or maybe a motorcycle/bicycle would be the only option to escape.

Then to consider how far do you have to go and can you sustain that trek? Having good maps would be a serious consideration with preplanned routes and contingency routes.

During the huge snow blizzard that hit DC and Baltimore a few years before the quake, I was locked in a third floor apartment with my newborn daughter and wife. Outside was a minor 2 1/2 to 3 feet of snow, but continuous fall. Surprise, MD did not own any snow plows and nor did base. The roads would not be plowed at all for two weeks. Again, travel was pretty much impossible unless you had a large truck with good Four wheel. Even so, the road was littered with buried cars and people that got ten feet and then got stuck. For that occasion I had to ruck to the Grocery store to bring back supplies. Pretty close to the reality of everything shutting down scenario. Even that base closed. Everyone was un-prepared including the Army and the government, go figure. (I waited in line for 6 hours to get a snow shovel, should have known better, but really had zero expectation of things getting that bad. After 6 hours people physically started to beat each other just for the chance to just buy one lousy Chinese snow shovel...)

Rally point, Regrouping with family if separated:

After the immediate effects of what could be considered an absolutely minor quake, there was no Comms at all available. No land line, no Cell, nothing...(Maybe Ham or CB, but not available to me at the time) So Comms are a serious issue if there was not any temp EMP effects from whatever may have happened. Along with that the logistics of power. (Batterys, hand crank, generator, wind, solar, etc.)


To Travel with others/Bunker down/Bug out

TR, you addressed some excellent questions. One thought that really lingers in my mind is that even if you are prepared to some extent, why would anyone WANT to travel with you? There would be some people skills involved beyond whatever tactical mindset a person in need of a fellow traveler/help may have.

As military I can see that we might see things as looking for other useful survivalist people or other military and vets. However, as the "in between" there may be those that cannot avoid the natural point of breaking to the dog eat dog mentality. I would think that it would not take long for the "others" I guess to start feeling the need to attack anyone for their own various needs of food/water/shelter.

(perhaps a selection is necessary without proven credentials. How do you know how far you can trust a person before they brake and become a selfish beast to your own misery?)

So with that, the approach of, "I need your help" seems like it would be a careful psychology and perhaps barter. It would require somehow being sure to build that trust and report but also making sure there is something there for both the parties in the short and long run. Which I understand is a scenario right up there for a SF qualified and experienced soldier. Just maybe not as much as the regulars out there. My point is, that if you needed to bring more people or even another person, you would need to be a "people person" or at least good at understanding how to negotiate carefully through situations when people suddenly shift from people to animal. Those "animals" could also be family and friends. Dealing with Irrationality with people you care about sucks.


(And as the show addressed, don't bring your daughters Boyfriend...That kid will get you killed. ;) )

Barbarian
11-05-2013, 10:19
Scenario

Excellent scenario. Involves many complicated questions/decisions. I will prepare a response.

Team Sergeant
11-05-2013, 12:20
Just wait until I get past a few drafts in my head......;)

mark46th
11-05-2013, 17:05
In 12 hours, I can be 400 miles into Mexico...

Attila
11-05-2013, 17:45
With are family farms we have housing and food for up to 200+ and Know all the farmers from I 94 to the Mississippi river. The county sheriff is are next door neighbor. We kill 20 to 30 deer every Nov. so we all have guns and know how to use them.

last deer hunting we had 32 hunters, last 4th of July we hosted 95 family members at are farm for 3 to 4 days. Land, Grain, Fuel, Water and Livestock we have plenty of.

TOMAHAWK9521
11-05-2013, 17:51
I'm screwed. Every jackwagon along the Front Range is going to clog up the roadways as they attempt to escape to that mythical safe haven called the Rocky Mountains. I'll just stay here and do my utmost to mobilize the neighborhood and ride it out. We have some decent fields of fire between here and I-25, as well as N,E, and S.

The Reaper
11-05-2013, 20:58
I hope this helps add to the discussion.

Most people should make a plan for the most likely, and then the most dangerous disasters that they face.

From the plans, you should be able to determine the skills you need, if any. For example, you can’t stand watch 24/7 alone, and few of us alone have adequate skills in tactics, medicine, communications, intelligence, mechanical, electrical, plumbing, construction and carpentry, automotive repair, hunting, farming, gardening, foraging, livestock, cooking, etc. What skills do you need help with? How long would it take you to acquire them for an existing member, versus bringing in an outsider? The most skilled person in the world may be a total ass, and unable to get along with anyone. How do you quickly determine that?

I would suggest looking to your family living locally first for these skills since you know them better, and some of them may be planning on coming to you (or leaving with you) anyway.

That should cause you to start thinking about the people you trust and if any of them might have what you need and be interested. I would say that, for OPSEC reasons, it might be best to talk around the topic of disaster preparation with those you might be considering rather than asking outright or putting an ad in the paper.

If they have their own commodities (water, food, fuel, etc.), that is great. If not, before the crisis, you can try and steer them toward preparing, little by little. If they refuse, but you still need them, then you are going to have to prepare for them with your own supplies.

Ideally, with 12 hours notice, you should start out with most of the members and gear you need.

Only you can determine if you have the resources and needs to accept a new member. Do you accept children? Your daughter’s boyfriend? Pets? Kardashians?

If you are going to stay home and bug-in, you need to develop good communications and hopefully plans with your neighbors, because if there is a serious threat, and you haven’t, you are going to fall one house at the time, while as a group, you could have successfully defended against the threat. Most residences are going to need 8-12 well-trained shooters to properly defend it. As with most people, there will be some neighbors who are unreliable or untrustworthy. You will have to find a way to work with them or plan around them without leaving a gap in your defenses.

If you are moving out to another location, then you should plan to assemble your desired group for your destination. Do you travel together, or separately?

If you are accepting members to your party after the disaster, then you are going to have to have an abbreviated selection and assessment process. Time will be critical, and some people are better judges of characters than others. For example, you may want to let your spouse or someone else you trust who has people skills do your vetting and decision-making (or at least pre-screening) of potential new personnel. You are going to have to quickly decide if you can trust these newcomers to stand armed watches over you and your family. Conversely, do you seem like a trustworthy person to others that they can put their faith in? If you seem unreliable or shady, you may lose people you would have liked to have had join you. At worst, the people you have brought in may decide to mutiny and toss you out. You will need to rapidly determine if they have critical skills that you need. Ultimately, you will have to decide if their benefits outweigh their costs.

Ethically and morally, you will have to decide who joins you, who you help, and how much. Personally, I suspect that anyone you feed once will, like a stray pet, come back for more, likely telling others of your bounty. At the same time, turning away a starving child takes a hard heart. Anything you gave away or barter may come back to haunt you. Finally, people who fail to prepare in times of plenty are putting themselves and their loved ones at risk when the inevitable occurs. That is not really my responsibility. Many are counting on the government to bail them out. I hope they are not disappointed, but I am not betting my family's lives on it.

There are few easy decisions.

Just my .02, YMMV.

TR

GratefulCitizen
11-06-2013, 15:55
I would start spreading rumors immediately.
It's a small town.

Specifics on the rumors:
-all local law enforcement is standing against this order
-any LEO who is attempting to enforce it has "gone rogue" and is just trying to rob you, defend yourself and legitimate LEO's will back you
-private property will be respected, LEO's will back you, any LEO saying anything to the contrary has gone rogue
-you will receive support from local law enforcement if lethal force is used to protect persons and property
-looters will be severely punished
-local churches will be coordinating efforts for the community to take care of itself during this "temporary" emergency

Then I'd encourage them to tell everyone they could.


Most of our LEOs would have this attitude anyway.
Most of the local population would have this attitude anyway.
Efforts to violently suppress the (well-armed) local population would be very costly in terms of casualties.

If enough people believe it, it becomes a fact.

MtnGoat
11-06-2013, 18:04
I'm screwed.

I'd be dragging along four screamers to begin with.

Unless, unless - there is a young unattached 18D and an 18B in the area that wants to throw in with us. You'd have to bring your own MRE's.

I'll have to ride it out in place and make sure the neighbors are well armed and organized. Best guess on my block is 50% active or retired - mostly retired.

You have a boat Pete, I'm on the same boat but with three dragging along.

Great idea TR

Peregrino
11-06-2013, 18:04
I would start spreading rumors immediately.
It's a small town.

Specifics on the rumors:
-all local law enforcement is standing against this order
-any LEO who is attempting to enforce it has "gone rogue" and is just trying to rob you, defend yourself and legitimate LEO's will back you
-private property will be respected, LEO's will back you, any LEO saying anything to the contrary has gone rogue
-you will receive support from local law enforcement if lethal force is used to protect persons and property
-looters will be severely punished
-local churches will be coordinating efforts for the community to take care of itself during this "temporary" emergency

Then I'd encourage them to tell everyone they could.


Most of our LEOs would have this attitude anyway.
Most of the local population would have this attitude anyway.
Efforts to violently suppress the (well-armed) local population would be very costly in terms of casualties.

If enough people believe it, it becomes a fact.

I like the way you're thinking! :lifter

mugwump
11-06-2013, 18:07
Martial law won't last more than a few days under the given scenario, regardless.

mugwump
11-06-2013, 18:44
GratefulCitizen is already starting his planning at the tribe level. He and I are in agreement. Now my <Ctl><V>. ;)

First things first: Is the scenario credible? Could it all come down around our ears? My conclusion after considerable research is yes, it is possible, even probable if we stay on our current trajectory. I believe the financial, manufacturing, and logistical systems have become so complex and interdependent--and the social systems so degraded--that it’s only a matter of time before a Black Swan event (e.g. major bank failure, currency re-issuance, credit collapse, coronal mass ejection, pandemic) provides the butterfly-wing flutter that brings the whole thing down. When might it happen? Who knows…might be this December, might be 2024, might be never if we get our act together.

Next for consideration: How long until things get back to normal after a grid-down event? I think the only reasonable answer is “never”. I’m seeing predictions, which seem credible to me, of irreparable and mortal damage to the human, financial, technological, and supply chain resources necessary to maintain the grid, communications, water and sewage, transport, and financial systems within ten days of a major event. Slower events, like a pandemic, would unfold at their own pace until a tipping point was reached (or not, we’ve seen the danger approach and recede before). Then the same ten-day chain of self-reinforcing financial and supply chain contagion would lead to a collapse down to a level that is sustainable within the new reality of reduced capacity at every level of the system. . [See this study for the potential impact of a financial event http://www.feasta.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Trade_Off_Korowicz.pdf and this for a pandemic http://www.feasta.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/Catastrophic-shock-pandemic2.pdf. I’ve cited similar studies by Swiss Re, the U of Chi and U of MI in the Pandemic Flu thread. Also look up The Collapse of Complex Societies by Joseph Tainter. There are free PDFs all over the net.]

The challenges in a grid-down environment will be immense. Short-term requirements will include food, water, shelter, sanitation, medical care, security, and social organization (Who’s the boss? What are the laws? What is your strategy for negotiating/merging with other groups? What’s your overarching ethical approach?). Long-term requirements will be the same but will be even more challenging as the pre-crash remnants are consumed or destroyed in the inevitable chaos.

I think the only reasonable hope for survival will be to create, or join, increasingly sophisticated polities that trace the path of historical social development: clans, bands, tribes, chiefdoms, kingdoms, and states. I believe that the good guys and bad guys will follow generally similar trajectories (up to a point, predators will need to evolve to get past the chiefdom stage) when it comes to social organization. If you encounter bad guys with a more sophisticated level of organization, i.e. if your group is a clan and you encounter a predatory tribe, you will be destroyed or assimilated, with all that historically entails for you and your family. Bad ju-ju.

The current challenge involves the formation of a stable extended family or clan. While important in the earliest stages of a collapse, it’s my belief that no matter how well you organize yourself at that level you’re facing ultimate destruction if you stay there for more than a short while. Personally, I’d skip that level and move directly to organizing at the tribe level (local town/community). With several hundred potential foot soldiers for patrolling/defense and additional hundreds that can be directed toward growing food and securing resources your chances of survival improve exponentially. That way you’re much more likely to have a doctor, a lawyer, hopefully farmers and experienced gardeners with canning expertise, maybe a veterinarian, short-term access to heavy equipment, fuel, and materiel for engineering effective defenses, maybe even a farrier or an old coot/hobbyist with blacksmithing experience, etc. You’re also going to have to deal with existing local politicians, from mayors and chiefs of police to self-important little-pond bigwigs—all who think they should have a say once a forum for their opinions is established. The more things change…well, you know.

This is going to involve Civil Affairs and FID/UW in equal measures if any of us are to get out of this alive. My guess is 50% of your tribe won’t make the first anniversary of the crash even if things go really well. Still better than being taken down piecemeal by one or two roving bands.

Sorry, long-winded as usual. This doesn’t change the importance of membership selection as laid out in the original Reaper Challenge it just changes the scale. I’ll go over my thoughts on refugee selection and vetting, internal tribe organization, etc. in a separate post.

Brush Okie
11-06-2013, 19:20
Long story short I would stay home and organize my neighbors and community. Since it is a federal country thing the problem will be everywhere. Using my CA skills we would keep our neighborhood safe and fed. If someone wants to come to our little town METT-TC and logistics would determine if we allowed them. We have a local prison in town so the question would be what to do with the inmates. I know what my vote would be.

GratefulCitizen
11-06-2013, 22:44
I like the way you're thinking! :lifter

I call it "consent of the governed".

FlagDayNCO
11-07-2013, 09:44
Another nice thread, that when merged with the other related threads, goes into a very nice teaching format.

Based on experience (getting older), and determining all of those early ideas on bugging out present more risk than safety, I have been involved locally to lay the ground work for tribe and community leaders.

With what I did learn from my military experience, especially some great QPs, was identifying the various skill sets in our immediate area, as well as resources, risks, etc. There are also others that own businesses or live locally that have been thinking along the same lines. They may not all be preparing, but they have already started identifying risks and safety measures. Capitalize on this and add them to your network.

There may be other tribes forming close by. Merging of these tribes is a natural progression. Mutual aid in each other's defense or assistance during disaster can only help.

Several family members that continue to live in NJ know to come to my house in PA. They have skills sets that will contribute to what we need to do to survive and stay safe. They also know what to bring from their homes to bulk up what I have on hand.

The neighbors in my immediate area. Now that is a fine discussion point, as has been mentioned. Some are more trust worthy than others, yet all are here. Some, I would even consider suspect, based on their political choices, actions during power outages/ storms, etc.

Realize that when you/we form a tribe, that not everyone will agree on your methods or decisions. Some will insist that they want the Government to help; even when there is clearly no Government to help in your area. Have a plan on what to do with these people, or at least discuss your observations with others you trust.

Just as the subject of LEO going rogue, the same criteria must be laid down with those living within your community.

Now, for those that are not capable or maybe willing to patrol or help defend, find a job they can or will do. Fire Watch comes to mind. Have them walk the roads to check houses that are burning alternate fuels during the power outage. By doing so, they have effectively become another set of eyes on patrol.

Give them other work. Wood Choppers/ Collectors. Water. Tending livestock.

During Sandy, the grid did fail, but was put back as fast as was safely possible. Entire sections of infrastructure were wiped out. Gone. This was in an area with some of the best public utilities in America, so imagine it will be much worse in many other areas. Imagine if there was some sabotage on the utility networks after the initial natural disaster. Very possible and could speed up the downfall or create other problems.

Get to know the local pharmacy instead of WalMart. You will need meds and they have them. Know who owns livestock. Where are uninterrupted water sources located? Underground springs?

Learn the history of the place you live. That water source may be from a Super Fund site shut down 40 years ago, and hasn't been reported in the media recently. Real Estate agencies work hard to eliminate negative information for future sales potential.

Yes, there is a lot to think about, but these threads keep us current. Continuing education, I would like to think. :)

The Reaper
11-07-2013, 10:42
The quality of the feedback we have seen to this thread is amazing.

Two big points so far.

First you need a group of trustworthy individuals with diverse skills, the larger the better.

Second is the CA and PSYOP aspect of this effort. Frankly, I think most people miss that entirely.

Excellent points, thanks!

TR

mugwump
11-07-2013, 14:15
I was the one who had to withstand the vetting in "my" group. I was simultaneously evaluating them with equal due diligence, but from their perspective it was me joining them. I am gradually working myself up from "Skippy the FNG" status. They no longer think I'm stupid, just ignorant.

Long story short, I bought the farm next-door to my old college roommate. Having the ownership go "outside the hollow" wasn't their ideal outcome, but it was 2009, they were tapped out and the banks weren't lending, and it was me or a REIT. They're now quite happy with the way it turned out but I've had to work really, really hard to make it so.

Before the purchase my family and I met all of the other 4 families in the hollow. While they were friendly and sociable, I was grilled about my background, politics, skills, my kids and their accomplishments, etc. We encounter the same indirect grilling in town. My buddy says people like us, so we'll be accepted in just two generations instead of three.

Plinking with them at the quarry was a turning point. We hustled them after pressing the bets. :p

We're absentee but make a point to volunteer labor (prep little league fields, work summer festival booths) when we visit. I lease the cropland/pasturage to my friend at market prices and his son rents the house from me for $1/year. I've gradually shifted most of my preps there and we hope to (mostly) live there in two years after the new house is built. I hope to continue to rent the old farmhouse to the son. He's a great kid with a great wife (even though her goats ate all my apple tree saplings).

Like me, the guys in the hollow can imagine a high-impact event. While I don't think there's more than a 5-10% chance, they are more in the 1-in-4 camp. We were originally planning on a "hold the hollow" defensive strategy but I did a METT-TC analysis and came to the conclusion that even if we were successful, we'd be buggered if the local town was lost. We've since moved to a "hold the township" strategy which I think is better defensively and would give us more clout if/when the State government wakes us and tries to muscle us for our crops. We're willing to share food for political considerations but won't stand for confiscation.

I'll dig up my METT-TC for defense of the hollow and edit it down to something readable--it's scope is more in line with The Reaper's original challenge.

mugwump
11-08-2013, 00:50
This may be a bit of a tangent thread-wise, but relevant overall. Check out http://shtfschool.com by a guy named Selco. Fascinating stuff. My daughter's BFF from college recommended it to me. She's a former Bosniak, now a US citizen, who was a girl in Sarajavo during the siege. (She's working about 90 mi from the farm and knows she has a place at the table. Total sweetheart, sharp as a tack, looks like a princess but hard as woodpecker lips, has medical training, CCWs every day and runs an AK like a boss. She's a young woman who learned some hard lessons at an early age. Here's hoping one of the sons wakes up. ;))

This Selco guy is cagey about the locale (BFF insists Sarajavo) but he relates his experiences surviving in a former Yugo city during the war. He talks about the shockingly quick breakdown of order, building a defensive clan, avoiding attention, bartering strategies, gangs, the large numbers of 'good' people who go over to the dark side (and then reintegrate after the war ends...he's quite pragmatic and forgiving), items that were valuable and things that were useless, movement in a city overtaken by anarchy, religion and ethics, the city versus the countryside--it's really quite fascinating. It started out as a blog and has evolved to having "coursework" for sale but the vast majority of the articles and advice are free. Highly recommended. Be ready to lose a few hours. The newest entries are on top; I recommend starting on the last page and moving up.

The Reaper
11-08-2013, 11:28
Yep.

I've read his stuff, and its good.

TR

mugwump
11-08-2013, 12:30
I've had several serious talks with the daughter's BFF over the last three years. She's in total agreement with me about city/suburbs versus the country in a survival situation and she's all for preparing for the worst and fighting to preserve your place. But what has impressed me is her unshakable position that for every 2 hours spent preparing a homestead--security, water, food, sanitation, etc.--I should spend at least one hour on plans to flee from it. She definitely believes that you never really own more than you can carry at a dead run. Her recommendation is to plant caches all around a retreat in widening circles. Nothing fancy: a hotel size bar of soap, a Bic lighter, a can with a wire bail, a razor blade, couple bottles of water, dried soup and tea, etc. Nothing extensive but enough to keep you moving. In the closer ring of caches have old shoes, coats, mittens, hats. Basically anything too worn out for everyday use goes into a black garbage bag and gets cached. A map to all of the caches are in one of the old shoes in each close cache. She laughed when I said it was a security risk: "If they're chasing you you're dead so why worry? They'll be too busy eating your food and chasing your chickens."

Her family had to run three times and each time the conditions at the destination were worse than what they came from. Once they were driven into the countryside in inclement weather with the kids in nightclothes. Hence the shoe/clothes caches.

I must admit I haven't followed her advice yet.

Sdiver
11-15-2013, 00:47
Interesting how a lot of the responses here, you would stay and defend the "homestead." Personally, I'd like to take my chances away from major metropolitan areas.

Like Tomahawk said, here in Denver, people would be heading up to the "mystical" safety of the mountains, that's why I would look (and already have a route(s) picked out) south and east. I do have a route south and west up into the hills if needed, but if possible, given this scenario, with 12 hour notice, I'd most definitely be heading south and east.

The one thing I'd be thi9nking about heading that way is, there's not a whole hell of a lot of cover. Lots of wide open spaces. So traveling would interesting. Do I do it during the day, where you can see someone traveling from miles away, or do I travel at night and run the risk of being seen with IR detection? May have to look at getting thermal blankets and place over the hood of the truck while I travel, and then only travel for short distances (10-15 miles) at a time to keep it from getting "super hot" and creating a big IR signature.

More things to think about.

Flagg
11-15-2013, 03:25
We had a couple REAL bad earthquakes here a few years back.

Enough to see our part of the city without electricity, water, and sewerage out for extended periods(weeks to months).

I was a 12 on/24 off cordon commander and during my 24 "off" my guys and I still worked sourcing and distributing potable water in pretty substantial quantity(thousands of litres a day) to our own neighborhoods.

We developed a pretty efficient distribution system around convenient neighborhood hubs(street side in front of an active community member's garage), brought non-serving folks into it, and slowly pulled ourselves out of it to get some rest and allow us to focus on some other stuff.

We tried a "stone soup" exercise....which both worked and failed.....we put in things like pasta and thawing freezer meat...and the neighbors put in their "stones" and ate it. :)

But they got the message and thawing food was used for neighborhood BBQs sharing LPG bottles and BBQs which helped to bind ultra-local ties.

Being in the middle of summer helped.

But to be honest, the community engagement side of it went really well....it bound our community together a bit better(already good coms/relations)...and since I had arranged the water....people listened and acted when I made a few suggestions.

Nearly 3 years later my wife was just asked by someone who just moved in if it was her husband who organized water for everyone.

The only downside for us was the unfortunate case of a serving soldier("peer" NCO) living nearby who dumped his hysterical family on mine while I was on the job.

His wife and teenaged kids going nuts with ZERO pantry food or stored water. My wife gave them 2 days worth and kicked them off our property due to behavioral issues with the encouragement of our rottweiler. Thankfully, he is out of the unit and out of the neighbourhood.

The rest of the neighbours were all around above average. We found the folks to rely on were the older/retired but still active folks happy to take on the role of ultra-local "glue" a couple of houses in every direction.

Coms was a biggie......organizing my soldiers and coms with chain of command was mostly by txt message due to voice traffic overload.

Then the battery back ups on the cell towers failed on about day 3.

And it took a bit to sort out gennie recharging until mains power was back on.

I've been recently fiddling with a mesh network smart phone app that can daisy chain voice/txt/data via smart phone.......but it requires the ability to recharge phones as well as phone density to get a decent mesh to reach your target.

A couple of us NCOs kept in touch via quiet parts of the spectrum on occasion, but it wasn't really needed, as mobile phone coms were not out for long periods, and being out of uniform and without amateur licenses it was slightly naughty. Just a bit of self-directed training.

My only and biggest regret was missing an opportunity to partner with a local mashup organization called the Student Volunteer Army.

The SVA self-org'd and tried jumping in the mix to help(several thousand students). If I could go back and do it over I'd have just jumped in and embedded one of my soldiers(some of which are university students, the rest young working professionals) with each working sub group to liaise and coordinate their desire to help with the needs of the main rescue/recovery effort.

Unfortunately, after getting my ass kicked for "borrowing"(with owner's permission shortly after) two privately owned civilian trucks that we filled, staged, and certified with 28000L of potable water less than 6 hours after the quake I was gun shy to try anything "less than conventional".

I've been in touch with the SVA since to investigate and understand their timeline of events. It turns out they had a very hard time working with the relief effort, they basically were told to go home. Although the organization later received wide recognition for their independent efforts.

Crime was interesting and revealing.

The usual suspects(tweakers/opportunists) tried to take advantage. The justice system, media, and public gave the Police( and Army in support) a lot of latitude and moral support.

We worked in a mix of Police and Army and I even got to drive a cop car with the lights on(but no siren). We caught our share of idiots, but not as many as I thought there might be.

The number of hot young university students, MILFs, and aunties/grandmas that spent a good chunk of their day baking treats and making up big vats of coffee/tea for folks working the rescue/recover was awesome.

Terrible pain in the ass, but in some respects it's renewed my faith in humanity.

A couple out of every hundred were assholes, but a couple more than that stepped up and did something to help.

The rest were in the middle.

I reckon maybe it's a bit like what I read here about UW.....a couple percent on either end of the spectrum is what makes or breaks it.

Key points for me:

*potable water
*community engagement pre-event makes it easy(er)
*potable water
*persistent mesh coms.....a smartphone app, a bunch of hand crank chargers, and a WIFI amplifier antenna TIMES heaps might work
*potable water
*just go with the unconventional solution if my gut tells me it's right and take my lumps later

Just my amateur 0.02c

Flagg
11-15-2013, 03:26
Almost forgot!

When I read this thread I remembered another related thread and link here:

http://www.professionalsoldiers.com/forums/showthread.php?t=41217

http://www.thedailysheeple.com/why-you-should-think-like-a-green-beret-instead-of-a-doomsday-prepper_022013

Penn
11-15-2013, 04:39
Interesting scenario.

Spiffav8
11-16-2013, 01:27
Flagg....Thank You. Recently my wife and I attended a course put on by the police department that she works for that was designed to better prepare the departments employees for a huge disaster. I was very surprised to hear that an Earthquake was the number one threat to the city we live in, until they explained it. Water, power, gas and food would be gone within 48 hours and relief assistance could take up to Ten days to arrive. Even when it did, it wouldn't be to help the average person, but rather to get the local government back up and working. It was explained that a City like ours is very much an island. We produce nothing here, everything is shipped in. There are five routes in or out and it's a haul to the next place one would be able to find supplies. Water was the number one item they brought up as a must for being prepared. One gallon, per person, per pet, per day was the number we where given. The course really got us thinking and we've made some great plans, though no where near some of what's been mentioned here. Lot of good ideas!

As for bug out, bug in....I like layers in this area. We have enough food and water to last us six months in our home. With a little notice, I could secure the windows and doors. We are able to defend our home, but that's limited by our numbers (probably four adults). Our second layer is our 4x4 truck. If we had to abandon our home, the truck would already be loaded with a decent amount of supplies, ready to go in our enclosed garage (assuming the house is still standing). That will only get us so far and I would fully expect every mountain road/path to be clogged. For that reason we carry B.O.B.s in all our vehicles. Not only could they help us get home if needed, but if we had to abandon the 4x4 would could survive for one week, with what we have in them.

We have a small group of about eight that we have made some plans with for a disaster. We have several places to meet up that are scattered around the city. Everyone brings quality skills to the mix, in addition to being trustworthy and hard working. Comms are the real challenge for us. As for outsiders....probably not.

Who knows what type of, or when a disaster might hit, but when you look into all that could happen during an earthquake....it's a good one to be prepared for.

MAB32
11-23-2013, 12:05
Long story short I would stay home and organize my neighbors and community. Since it is a federal country thing the problem will be everywhere. Using my CA skills we would keep our neighborhood safe and fed. If someone wants to come to our little town METT-TC and logistics would determine if we allowed them. We have a local prison in town so the question would be what to do with the inmates. I know what my vote would be.



When I was working the Jail Division many years ago, we (a lot of us) discussed this very same issue. We had several plans. Neither were compassionate towards most of the inmate population.

mojaveman
11-23-2013, 15:25
Ok, I'll try and respond to this scenario as realistically as possible.

A magnitude 8+ earthquake strikes along the San Andreas fault in Southern California. Civic centers, hospitals, freeway overpasses, electrical power, water supplies - all down. The National Guard as well as active duty Marines and Army all arrive to enforce martial law (happened during the LA riots in '92).

Have already decided I'm staying put. I live in a 3K square foot home on an acre of land in a white middle class area. My greatest concern, and especially during the summer, would be water. It would also be the concern of the other 20 million people living in Southern California. I have two 55 gallon plastic drums full of water on the property but should probably have more. Three immediate neighbors have swimming pools. The Santa Ana River is 10 miles away and Lake Matthews is 5 miles away. If necessary I would procure more water by using a 5 gallon plastic jerry can in a rucksack on my back.

In the first 12 hours I would probably go to the local supermarket which is a mile from my house and buy as many cans of beans as I could. You can eat them hot or cold, they don't require refridgeration, they don't need water to prepare and they are filling and provide plenty of protein.

Already have enough firearms and ammo to feel comfortable with. My weapon of choice in guarding my property would be a 12 guage shotgun with a barrel light and a magazine full of number 4 buckshot. :D

I live with one other person and can't see wanting to add any others mostly because of food and water requirements. I would only allow relatives to join if they lost their homes or weren't properly prepared. In this case they could help gather food and water and also help with security. All of my relatives are honest hard working people of good character so no problems there. I do have a brother who is a doctor. ;)

If the scenario ended up lasting a long time I would resort to taking small game and fish of which there are plenty not far from where I live.

The Reaper
11-23-2013, 20:13
When I was working the Jail Division many years ago, we (a lot of us) discussed this very same issue. We had several plans. Neither were compassionate towards most of the inmate population.

Honestly, I can't see releasing any prisoner who had any history of being a violent felon. Sorry, but that is just the way I would call it.

Misdemeanors (who probably shouldn't be in a prison, just jailed) and non-violent felons would probably be okay to release if the jails and prisons couldn't be secured and resourced.


Ok, I'll try and respond to this scenario as realistically as possible.

A magnitude 8+ earthquake has just struck along the San Andreas fault in Southern California. Civic centers, hospitals, freeway overpasses, electrical power, water supplies - all down. The National Guard as well as active duty Marines and Army all arrive to enforce martial law (happened during the LA riots in '92).

Have already decided I'm staying put. I live in a 3k square foot home on an acre of land in a white middle class area. My greatest concern, and especially during the summer, would be water. It would also be the concern of the other 20 million people living in Southern California. I have two 55 gallon plastic drums full of water on the property but should probably have more. Three immediate neighbors have swimming pools. The Santa Ana River is 10 miles away and Lake Matthews is 5 miles away. If necessary I would procure more water by using a 5 gallon plastic jerry can in a rucksack on my back.

In the first 12 hours I would probably go to the local supermarket which is a mile from my house and buy as many cans of beans as I could. You can eat them hot or cold, they don't require refrigeration, they don't need water to prepare and they are filling and provide plenty of protein.

Already have enough firearms and ammo to feel comfortable with. My weapon of choice in guarding my property would be a 12 guage shotgun with a barrel light and a magazine full of number 4 buckshot. :D

I live with one other person and can't see wanting to add any others mostly because of food and water requirements. I would only allow relatives to join if they lost their homes or weren't properly prepared. In this case they could help gather food and water and also help with security. All of my relatives are honest hard working people of good character so no problems there. I do have a brother who is a doctor. ;)

If the scenario ended up lasting a long time I would resort to taking small game and fish of which there are plenty not far from where I live.

I respect that you have made some preparations, but am not sure that a daily ten mile hump with 45 pounds of water is a sustainable solution. Better to get some BoBs, rainbarrels, and more 55 gallon barrels, and try to coordinate with the neighbors to use pool water. The good news is that 110 gallons of water represents almost two months of drinking water for two people. Probably more like a month with other uses.

You should not count on being able to procure more food, but work to pick up an extra few cans every time you shop. Maybe beans one week, maybe a 50 pound bag of rice the next, if you eat rice. Even if you have plenty of a food item, food fatigue can be a real problem. I would say that you should devote your resources to buying at least a little extra food every week till you have at least two weeks of food that you routinely eat and a way to open cans and cook your food.

A shotgun is a fine weapon for overtly engaging a few targets at less than 50 yards. If that is the limit of your threat, you are adequately armed. You should get plenty of ammo before someone outlaws lead pellets.

Unfortunately, you cannot do all of the tasks you will need to do and pull security 24 hours per day. I would look for like minded neighbors and try to form a "community watch" or other team effort.

20 million people are going to strip every food source and quickly deplete any wildlife that remains in the area. They have the same plan you do.

TR

MAB32
11-23-2013, 22:15
[QUOTE=The Reaper;531145]Honestly, I can't see releasing any prisoner who had any history of being a violent felon. Sorry, but that is just the way I would call it.

Misdemeanors (who probably shouldn't be in a prison, just jailed) and non-violent felons would probably be okay to release if the jails and prisons couldn't be secured and resourced.



You are absolutely correct Sir. The problem was what "we" were going to do with the rest that were never going to commit another crime again and the smell that would of come from the facility.....later on.

Brush Okie
11-23-2013, 22:36
Honestly, I can't see releasing any prisoner who had any history of being a violent felon. Sorry, but that is just the way I would call it.

Misdemeanors (who probably shouldn't be in a prison, just jailed) and non-violent felons would probably be okay to release if the jails and prisons couldn't be secured and resourced.

TR

There are inmates even the other inmates do not want to see back on the street. So what do you do.

Kill them aka Nazi Germany

Turn them loose on their own. That would come to bite everyone in the ass.

Sift through them and kill some, let some go and integrate some into your group if any have skills you need. a tricky proposition at best.

Use as slave labor force and keep pinned up. They would take up lots of resources.

A real ethical dilemma. Remember not everyone in the community would make the vote to eliminate the inmates.

My vote would not be ACLU compliant

mugwump
11-24-2013, 13:19
A polity cannot exist without law. In a truly SHTF scenario you must form a new set of laws and apply them consistently. Prison staff taking it upon themselves to execute violent offenders are murderers. Prison staff who consult with the local authorities, advise them of the issues, and assist them in forming new laws that address the realities of the new environment are patriots and remain honorable members of the sheepdog community.

That prison is going to be a critical point for your defense and is a huge local advantage to your tribe. You don't want it stinky and a monument to shame.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: lawyering is going to be as critical a skill-set as soldiering and farming.

tonyz
11-24-2013, 13:49
A polity cannot exist without law. In a truly SHTF scenario you must form a new set of laws and apply them consistently. Prison staff taking it upon themselves to execute violent offenders are murderers. Prison staff who consult with the local authorities, advise them of the issues, and assist them in forming new laws that address the realities of the new environment are patriots and remain honorable members of the sheepdog community.

That prison is going to be a critical point for your defense and is a huge local advantage to your tribe. You don't want it stinky and a monument to shame.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: lawyering is going to be as critical a skill-set as soldiering and farming.

Agree.

The trades, farmers, security, medical and legal/constitutional skills will help the transition back from chaos and survival to a semblance of civilization.

The Reaper
11-24-2013, 16:21
Agree.

The trades, farmers, security, medical and legal/constitutional skills will help the transition back from chaos and survival to a semblance of civilization.

You had me tracking right up to the lawyers part.

TR

MR2
11-24-2013, 16:23
You had me tracking right up to the lawyers part.

TR

You need to have some to keep the guillotine lubricated...

tonyz
11-24-2013, 16:24
You had me tracking right up to the lawyers part.

TR

Yeah - I feel you.

But, good ones can be of some use...sometimes. :D

The Reaper
11-24-2013, 16:30
Morally, is it better to leave violent prisoners in their cells to die, or to release them and have someone else have to terminate their existence, likely only after they have perpetrated many more crimes and victimized many more people? Do you want to be the one who lets a hundred Mansons go free?

The correctional officers and staff have their own families to take care of, I wouldn't expect many of them to report to work for long if the grid were to go down or other serious disaster of potential long duration strikes. This decision will likely be made quickly and could have far reaching implications.

For that matter, how about pets? If you are out of food, is it better to release them to starve to death (if they lost their feral nature), or to prey upon others if they didn't, or to put them down yourselves? If you have not seen what wild dogs can do, you may want to watch a few YouTube videos of wolves, hyenas, and wild dogs in action before making that call.

TR

MAB32
11-24-2013, 17:13
We use Deputies in our Jail and not correction officers. We have the ability to charge Inmates with crimes committed in the facility and anybody else outside of the facility. We use to, on a regular basis that is, write out confidentials on inmates who made the mistake of either speaking out about their crimes whether it was between us and them, their family (visitation hours), or them talking and bragging to other inmates about what they did.

We also use to cut confidentials on inmates who were nothing but problems. Assaults on staff, fighting amongst the other inmates, and the list goes on. Once convicted, they were usually sent out to the next day depending upon the crime. Naturally, murders, rapists, serial or spree criminals, and pedophiles were given first priority. These confidentials were always sent with the transport Deputies to accompany the said inmate(s) to their first prison which from there they were categorized and placed throughout the state. Once these confidentials reached the "receiving" prison and the Correction officers read them and the problems we had with them, rumors were that the inmate(s) in question were taken aside and, well.....the behavior pattern was ended right then and there for lack of a better phrase.

Repeat violent offenders, especially murderes and any type of sexual crimes, in a real world situ, would possibly get a choice between a $0.20 bullet or starving to death. Others, would be judged accordingly, I would assume.


Also, if this is true, he would really have to worry.


www.theblaze.com/stories/2013/11/02/take-a-good-look-at-the-47-year-old-sex-offender-accused-of-impregnating-12-year-old-girl-there-may-have-been-other-victims/


By the way, we used the "Direct Supervision" method of controlling the inmates.

mugwump
11-24-2013, 18:21
Morally it would be better to make them dig their own graves and then put plastic bags over their heads. I'm not saying to feed them or keep them alive. I'm saying decide their fate under rule of law. Decide as a group what constitutes a capital offense under the new paradigm, pass the laws, have your hearings and perform said executions as indicated.

Maintaining rule of law with representative input requires a polity with a high level of organization. It may be that your/my region will have to drop down a level or two until stability and common sense match the new reality (Chief? Warlord?), but I'd want to keep my region's structure as mature as possible.

Rule of law, financial investment, and property rights are central to my kind of freedom. That means lawyers and judges, whatever you want to call them.

What do you do with people who sleep on guard duty? Violate OPSEC on market day? Chronically loaf? Steal food? It's going to get messy, and fast.

Peregrino
11-24-2013, 19:07
---- Maintaining rule of law with representative input requires a polity with a high level of organization. It may be that your/my region will have to drop down a level or two until stability and common sense match the new reality (Chief? Warlord?), but I'd want to keep my region's structure as mature as possible. ----------

FINALLY!!!! A situation where MISO and CA (properly subordinated to the Tactical Commander) might actually be something besides an unnecessary nuisance, or an interfering PITA, or simply a waste of resources keeping them alive and out from under foot.

No - that wasn't in pink.

badshot
11-24-2013, 23:10
I have found this very helpful especially since not being in a remote area permanently anymore - Never even thought about prisoners.

Curious about TR's comment about "PSYOP aspect of this effort." Any ideas/plans for this aspect ?

MR2
11-25-2013, 05:44
Urban Villages and the Making of Communities
English | 272 pages | ISBN-10: 0415262739

http://www.amazon.com/Urban-Villages-Making-Communities-Peter-ebook/dp/B000Q66IXG/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1385379873&sr=1-1&keywords=Urban+Villages+and+the+Making+of+Communit ies

badshot
11-25-2013, 07:53
Urban Villages and the Making of Communities
English | 272 pages | ISBN-10: 0415262739

http://www.amazon.com/Urban-Villages-Making-Communities-Peter-ebook/dp/B000Q66IXG/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1385379873&sr=1-1&keywords=Urban+Villages+and+the+Making+of+Communit ies

Light goes on...I'm living in one!

TOMAHAWK9521
11-25-2013, 09:42
Entire Quote

I remember traveling around NZ back in '05 and the radio programs would air emergency preparedness reminders almost every hour for homeowners and families to keep their disaster kits ready and up to date in case of the wide range of natural disasters that NZ is subject to.

mugwump
11-25-2013, 10:33
FINALLY!!!! A situation where MISO and CA (properly subordinated to the Tactical Commander) might actually be something besides an unnecessary nuisance, or an interfering PITA, or simply a waste of resources keeping them alive and out from under foot.

No - that wasn't in pink.

Well...not in our plans. ;) Departments of Food, War, School, Law, Medicine, and Energy still report to the civil authorities. So still under foot.

Brush Okie
11-25-2013, 11:52
FINALLY!!!! A situation where MISO and CA (properly subordinated to the Tactical Commander) might actually be something besides an unnecessary nuisance, or an interfering PITA, or simply a waste of resources keeping them alive and out from under foot.

No - that wasn't in pink.

That is because commanders today have no clue how to properly use CA and today's CA people are not trained properly and don't know what they should be doing. Everyone wants to shoot their way to success and have CA clean up the mess or bribe the locals not to attack the Army like the Romans did the Vandals. When they ran out of money the Vandals sacked Rome and we got a new word in our vocabulary.... vandalism.

Flagg
11-25-2013, 12:17
I remember traveling around NZ back in '05 and the radio programs would air emergency preparedness reminders almost every hour for homeowners and families to keep their disaster kits ready and up to date in case of the wide range of natural disasters that NZ is subject to.

That would be about the time they started running preparedness communication in print/radio/tv.

It's one of the government spending programs on mass media that I actually support....unlike say the "Don't get drunk and cook so you accidentally burn your house down" campaign.

I think the program helped a good bit during the quakes, but there were still(and always will be) muppets who think it will never happen and/or assume someone will fix their problems.

Personally, in such tough economic times I'd like to see government communications targeting all these popular food/cooking shows and ask them if they'd help suggest people stock bigger pantries of long shelf live items that can actually SAVE money by simply stocking up when the appropriate items are on sale.

Save money while also preparing a little bit.....win/win.

Flagg
11-25-2013, 12:29
A wee bit slightly off topic......but the team you select needs to communicate:

This is what we've been fiddling with down here that I mentioned in an earlier post about our local loss of cell phone infrastructure when the cell towers lost mains power and battery back up.

User base density and the extenders would be critical.....without extenders and user density I'd think it's usefulness would be next to zero.

Synopsis:

http://www.servalproject.org/

Greater detail:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u30KA7fk3v0

I'm not affiliated with the project other than as a volunteer test user.

tonyz
11-25-2013, 13:18
I have found this very helpful especially since not being in a remote area permanently anymore - Never even thought about prisoners

When I previously thought of prisoners...I thought about them in the context of our criminal politicians that will prolly get us into this kind of mess - and how to deal with them...but the guillotine...hmmm, now everything is in perspective.

;)

mugwump
11-25-2013, 14:02
A wee bit slightly off topic......but the team you select needs to communicate:

User base density and the extenders would be critical.....without extenders and user density I'd think it's usefulness would be next to zero.

Yep, the range of wifi is just too short. In a poor urban environment with high installation density I could see its potential utility--cut the cord to the cellcos. They'd lose banking, of course, which is a huge part of third-world cell usage. But in a disaster setting where would they be charging their phones? As the phones went down from power loss even the guys clever enough to keep theirs charged would be cut off as mesh density dropped below threshold.

mugwump
11-25-2013, 14:11
Here's a moral quandary for consideration: The grid has just gone down. From the lack of any federal comms and what you can glean from local hams it looks to be nation-wide. Traffic on the state road has dropped to a trickle. A truck full of Useful Stuff drives into town. Driver says it's headed for the hospital in the small city 80 miles to the west. What do you do? If you let it go it's unlikely to make it to its destination. If you commandeer it, people will die. Keep it? Tax it? Escort it? Let it go?

tonyz
11-25-2013, 16:17
Here's a moral quandary for consideration: The grid has just gone down. From the lack of any federal comms and what you can glean from local hams it looks to be nation-wide. Traffic on the state road has dropped to a trickle. A truck full of Useful Stuff drives into town. Driver says it's headed for the hospital in the small city 80 miles to the west. What do you do? If you let it go it's unlikely to make it to its destination. If you commandeer it, people will die. Keep it? Tax it? Escort it? Let it go?

People down the road in that small city may be depending on that shipment.

What does the driver want to do? If he want's to take the risk to complete the job (his mission) who are we to commandeer someone else's property?

Grid just down...to soon to be predicting when things get back. Tough times make for some tough decisions but based on your scenario it is IMO too soon to go pirate.

I realize others will have different ideas. Tweak the facts and many different discussions and reasonable outcomes are possible.

So, I revise my list of critical skills from...trades, farmers, medical professionals, security, etc., etc., to include leadership. Leaders with good judgement may be in short supply in the short term as well other critical needs.

Great hypothetical and thread to flesh out difficult considerations.

badshot
11-25-2013, 16:25
Here's a moral quandary for consideration: The grid has just gone down. From the lack of any federal comms and what you can glean from local hams it looks to be nation-wide. Traffic on the state road has dropped to a trickle. A truck full of Useful Stuff drives into town. Driver says it's headed for the hospital in the small city 80 miles to the west. What do you do? If you let it go it's unlikely to make it to its destination. If you commandeer it, people will die. Keep it? Tax it? Escort it? Let it go?

I'd say try and make a deal with the guy first - maybe offer to take some in a smaller transport when it's safer and possibly find some additional Team members and/or other assets in the town.

If the trip is just plain suicide under any circumstance, explain it to the driver and take him into the team if he so desires. Try and get him to willingly hand over the truck, otherwise take the truck.

Flagg
11-25-2013, 17:14
Yep, the range of wifi is just too short. In a poor urban environment with high installation density I could see its potential utility--cut the cord to the cellcos. They'd lose banking, of course, which is a huge part of third-world cell usage. But in a disaster setting where would they be charging their phones? As the phones went down from power loss even the guys clever enough to keep theirs charged would be cut off as mesh density dropped below threshold.

Personally, I have a bunch of options for charging mobile phones/etc. via solar, hand crank, 12v.

But you make a good point as exemplified during Hurricane Sandy with the photos of everyone trying to charge their phones to the few genie powered charging stations.

Maybe such a package that included range extenders would need volume recharge capability for mobile devices.

What's funny is how even in rural, non electrified Afghanistan, everyone is still able to charge their Roshan phones(mostly from home solar panel and 12v battery/inverter).

I guess I'm thinking of it from a modernised version 2.0 of Civil Defense. Something along the lines of Community Engagement(Defense is just too aggressive for some).

Instead of bomb shelters and tinned food/water, maybe it's the local resident police officer with mesh coms network in a box with a clone-able app with some range extenders/volume rechargers/flexible solar panels in a large Pelican case?

But yeah…..density(urban to suburban) and ability to recharge would be key issues….as well as very unhappy mobile phone networks trying to kill the free piggybacking.

Flagg
11-25-2013, 17:36
Here's a moral quandary for consideration: The grid has just gone down. From the lack of any federal comms and what you can glean from local hams it looks to be nation-wide. Traffic on the state road has dropped to a trickle. A truck full of Useful Stuff drives into town. Driver says it's headed for the hospital in the small city 80 miles to the west. What do you do? If you let it go it's unlikely to make it to its destination. If you commandeer it, people will die. Keep it? Tax it? Escort it? Let it go?

Keep driver contained from community and positively shape his perceptions

Quickly inventory vehicle with permission

Develop escort plan, actions on, prioritised opportunity list, and cost/benefit

Take a calculated risk if deemed worthwhile…..

Heavy escort, assuming fuel is available

Attempt coms with hospital/authority while en route thru HAM network

If coms established begin negotiating in good faith based on known inventory

If coms not established send recce element forward to negotiate in good faith once a harbour position is established outside of destination as well as information requirements on community.

Marry up procedure.

Take fair and reasonable cut that incorporates a goodwill investment in ongoing relationship with hospital/community to be leveraged in the future.

If not dead yet, we have initiated a positive relationship with a distant community while taking some for ourselves, we have conducted short but comprehensive information collection on the community, conducted a route recce on MSRs between FOB Honey Badger and city, identified potential low risk, high reward scrounging opportunities en route as well as problem areas, and kept FOB Honey Badger's poker hand close to the vest.

I'm sure there's stuff I missed.

The Reaper
11-25-2013, 19:05
Good scenario.

COA 1 - Keep the truck and all its contents, with driver consent.

COA 2 - Keep the truck and all its contents, without driver consent.

COA 3 - Send the driver on his way, with all of his cargo, and no escort.

COA 4 - Send the driver on his way, with all of his cargo, and an escort.

COA 5 - Send the driver on his way, with some of his cargo, and no escort.

COA 6 - Send the driver on his way, with some of his cargo, and an escort.



I would lean toward COA 6, if the following questions could be answered.


80 miles by road in a grid down scenario could be a suicide mission, even with an escort.

Are there multiple routes from your location to the hospital?

What are the odds of making it?

Can the hospital meet the truck part of the way there to escort it?

How many people can you risk for the possible payoff?

How many vehicles and armed men do we have to draw upon?

What is our fuel state?

Do we have any aircraft or ISR assets available?

How badly do you need the contents of the truck?

Can we effectively use the contents?

TR

tonyz
11-25-2013, 19:23
In an early grid down scenario remember that the road runs both ways and we may be expecting something from that small city, ourselves.

This truck of supplies is also an opportunity to potentially make useful allies and gather intelligence.

Valid communication with the subject city may shape this opportunity.

Great considerations TR.

badshot
11-25-2013, 19:34
gather intelligence.
From the driver as well.
Great considerations TR.

Much wiser order...

when far out in the back country we have a saying...if there is 10 percent (some say 20) doubt, don't do it unless there's no other option.

TOMAHAWK9521
11-25-2013, 19:44
"Don't get drunk and cook so you accidentally burn your house down" campaign.


Holy crap! I completely forgot about that PSA. I thought that had to be the funniest public awareness message I'd ever heard. :D

FlagDayNCO
11-27-2013, 10:11
Good point of discussion. Something that has been happening for years is the limiting of band width during high traffic scenarios. CellCo usually has a fix, but they have to be involved.

Example One is a major snowfall in recent years, catching many still at work. We all knew snow was inbound, but the weather fronts changed course and the snow came down like no one had ever believed. Roads were clogged for hours, snow plows couldn't get in, gas station ran out of fuel, etc. Through all of this, everyone was on their cellular device trying to call. The network couldn't handle the traffic.

We knew that SMS text messaging would be the best option, so we started texting message traffic.

Example Two is Sandy. My work truck has mobile SATCOM for scenarios where the cellular system couldn't handle our traffic. Well... The cellular system went down in patches, as power went out. The other side of the coin was CellCo prioritized business and government traffic.

Now, many State Police vehicles have mobile repeaters in them, so they could operate if their land based system went down. Problem they ran into was they still had limited range.

Compounding everybody was the amount of traffic flooding the various systems.

Mobile SATCOM? Was only as good as the people on the system. I wound up talking to no one the first day. Just like a battle scene, there was so much interference the SATCOM didn't work.

Now, Feds had their FEMA trucks with insane comms equipment. Some didn't work and some wasn't monitored. Craziest thing was they had a Million Dollar SUV with all types of equipment in it, but had to pay cash going through tolls, after waiting in traffic for hours. No one ever thought about EZPass.

I think HAM is still the best option, especially organizing into networks for local and regional comms. Expect interference/ jamming if Gubmint decides it is not in their interest.

badshot
11-27-2013, 16:41
Expect interference/ jamming if Gubmint decides it is not in their interest.

Even if they don't - old fashioned alternatives should be in the plan as backups


ps. this concrete stuff sucks

GratefulCitizen
01-05-2014, 15:54
A few tools useful for this scenario when considering movement/non-movement of your party (resource competition/conflict zones/impassable terrain/bottlenecks/roadblocks/etc.) as well as the movement/non-movement of others (refugees/zombies/storm troopers/etc.) which may affect your party.


Interactive population density map:
http://demographics.coopercenter.org/DotMap/index.html

Turning on the map labels makes it much more useful.
The "racial dot" color feature might matter for some (particularly in some urban settings).


Interactive topographic map:
http://bmproto.esri.com/WorldTopoMap/WorldTopographicMap.html

Couldn't get the "topo characteristics" button to work on my iPad.
Found it easiest just to type city name and state (e.g. Page Arizona) in the box at the bottom right.

Google earth is helpful, too:
http://www.google.com/earth/explore/products/

mugwump
09-14-2014, 11:03
Back to team selection...

We were noodling ideas for winnowing the wheat from the chaff, refugee-wise, i.e the original focus of this thread. We made a list of needed skills/trades that won't surprise anyone: medics, vets (both animal and mil), farriers, musicians, blacksmiths, those with food canning experience, etc. A long list. Also, all of the farms around here are of the typical American, super-efficient, energy-intensive type. We are actually going to need strong backs to plant/weed/harvest, milk cows, make hay, etc.

I had an epiphany during the conversation. Why so passive? Why wait for these skills, some rare as hen's teeth, to show up at a checkpoint? Need farriers? Check the professional association lists and scan the farrier websites and blogs for local yokels. Ditto for midwives, bee keepers, potters, dry stone wall makers, steam engine hobbyists, small sawmill operators...you get the drift. We publish our whole lives on the Interwebs, someone should profit from that besides Google and Facebook.

Still haven't worked out how to approach these folks or if we should even try. Maybe just send out someone to recruit/gather in key folk in a 25 or 50-mile radius if the balloon goes up. Talking defense/safety will be anathema to some of these people prior to an event but the issue will be slapping people in the face afterwards. Many of these guys would have tools/gear they would need anyway and we should have functional transport to spare for a while. The "recruiters" would need to be persuasive...but not coercive. Depending on the skill set, some folks might get a golden ticket and could bring in their extended family members vs just their nuclear family. Needs more thought...

Anywho, we've already identified all the amateur radio operators in the area via web search--there were two we didn't know of. All will be offered cheap faraday protection for their spare/obsolescent equipment that they can keep at their sites. It's a start. But we've definitely changed our approach going forward.