So,

[NousDefionsDoc]

who's winning? :munchin

[ghuinness]

Well, I failed.

Spent all day debating one person at work (some sporadic help from others) and he is still voting for Kerry.

Extremely Grumpy


added: FL state of elections info:
http://enight.dos.state.fl.us/20041102_SUM_PRE.html

100,000 absentee ballots will not be counted until thursday

[Airbornelawyer]

With 100% reporting, PROPOSAL A (Casino gaming) lost by 21,164 to 13,290.

Republican Andrew Villagomez beat Democrat Jesus Bamba for the mayoralty of Mongmong-Toto-Maite.

• George W. Bush - 21,448
• John Kerry - 11,748
• Ralph Nader - 193
• Campagna Badnarik - 66

Source: Guam Election Commission

[Roguish Lawyer]

Kerry, 77 to 66 according to CNN, great source that it purports to be . . .

[Gypsy]

Really RL? Not too much BS there. Fox just showed POTUS 56-44% with only 4% of the votes reported.

[Roguish Lawyer]

Now showing Bush up 102-77. Bush has the South. Kerry has Northeast and Illinois. No swing states announced yet, although WV is Bush.

[Roguish Lawyer]

CBS News is calling Mississippi for Bush, and I actually believe them.

[Roguish Lawyer]

155-112 Bush -- NY to Kerry, Texas through ND for Bush.

[Airbornelawyer]

Looking at the county-by-county reported returns from the Florida Department of State Division of Elections, and comparing them to the results from 2000, two things jump out: first, either Florida grew by about 30-40% in 4 years, or turn-out is high. And second, Bush is performing more strongly in almost every county. Once Palm Beach's numbers come in, the statewide aggregate may shift Kerry-ward (as it did when Broward's came in), but right now Florida looks good for Bush.

With 75.7% reporting in Broward, Bush already has as many votes as he had in 2000, while Kerry is 50,000 votes behind Gore's total.

[ghuinness]

Hope this holds:


2000 Brevard County - Bush 115,185 * Gore 97,318
2000 Brevard County - Bush 53% - 45% -
2004 Brevard County - Bush 110,738 * Kerry 83,772 (85% Reporting)
2004 Brevard County - Bush leading 57% - 43%

2000 Citrus County - Bush 29,744 * Gore 25,501
2000 Citrus County - Bush 52% - 46% -
2004 Citrus County - Bush 39,496 * Kerry 29,271 (100% reporting)
2004 Citrus County - Bush 57% - 43%

2000 Lake County - Bush 49,963 - Gore 36,555
2000 Lake County - Bush 56% - Gore 41% -
2004 Lake County - Bush 53,635 - Kerry 33,195
2004 Lake County - Bush 62% - Kerry 38%

Gore won Flagler 13891 to 12608 in 2000
BUSH - 19624 to 18563 in 2004 - 100% reporting

MARION COUNTY
Bush won by 11k last time 55k to 44k.. He's leading 70k to 47k

ORANGE County
GORE WON 140k to 136k..
BUSH is winning 110k to 101k with 78% reporting

PINELLAS COUNTY!
GORE WON 200k to 184k..
BUSH is winning 97k to 96k in early voting with 14% reporting

PASCO COUNTY!!
GORE WON 69k to 68k..
BUSH is winning 98k to 81k with 96% reporting


So - what did the exit polls say?

[Roguish Lawyer]

There has been huge growth in Florida.

Check out Drudge: he says Ohio, Wis, Mich and Florida (plus a couple of others) are ALL leaning to Bush!

[Gypsy]

http://www.foxnews.com/

This is showing 165 to 112 favoring Bush. The interactive map lets you click the state to see individual results.

[gits]

I smell 4 More Years!

[NousDefionsDoc]

That's projected right?

[Roguish Lawyer]

That's projected right?

If you're referring to me, the numbers are media projections and the "leans" are Drudge. No idea what he's basing those calls on. Could be stolen from somewhere.

[Gypsy]

Well, those percentages are based on returns as they are coming in. Dan posted another good link (easier to see at a glance) in the General forum...

If I may... http://news.yahoo.com/electionresults

[ghuinness]

DAMMIT - that bitch Castor better not make the Senate in FL.
75% reporting and it's tied 49% with Martinez....

[NousDefionsDoc]

No, gits and the electoral thing. Sorry.

[Roguish Lawyer]

We Won Utah!!!!!

:D

[ghuinness]

DENVER (AP) - Colorado voters rejected an initiative to immediately change the way the state's electoral votes are awarded to presidential candidates, a proposal critics feared could have thrown the national election results into the courts.

The failure of Amendment 36 was based on a statistical analysis of the vote from voter interviews conducted for The Associated Press by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International.

The proposal would have scrapped Colorado's winner-take-all system for its nine electoral votes, making it only the third state to divide those votes based on the popular vote. If approved, it would have affected this year's election.

[Airbornelawyer]

From the source:

Florida: http://enight.dos.state.fl.us/20041102_DET_PRE.html

Ohio: http://election.sos.state.oh.us/results/SingleRaceSummary.aspx?race=PP

[Gypsy]

HOT DAMN...195 to 112 for POTUS!!!

[The Reaper]

That's projected right?

Projected 193-112 for Bush right now on Fox.

Don't forget that Kerry will get about 75 off the left coast when they are closed and counted.

I am waiting for Ohio and Florida to go Bush. He is leading by 5 points or so in both. If they do go to him, and he loses no other states, he is in for four more.

TR

[The Reaper]

DAMMIT - that bitch Castor better not make the Senate in FL.
75% reporting and it's tied 49% with Martinez....

Absentee ballots should break for Martinez.

TR

[Roguish Lawyer]

If they do go to him, and he loses no other states, he is in for four more.

And we will have something else to TOAST!!!

[Sigi]

Just got home from work and the first place I knew I could come for up to date election sites was ps.com.

You people never disappoint. This was my first election and I am proud to say my county went to Bush 51-46, 100% reporting.

Come on OHIO!

[Roguish Lawyer]

Well, I tried. My state sucks! LOL

[The Reaper]

PA is being chalked up to Kerry, but I cannot see how they can deny FL and likely OH to the POTUS soon. Idaho has gone Bush.

TR

[NousDefionsDoc]

Yeah, now that Kalifornia is in, at least there won't be any more huge jumps to worry about.

These last two are the most I've cared - ever. I want POTUS to take NH and get some read up there in Colonel Jack's AO.

[The Reaper]

Yeah, now that Kalifornia is in, at least there won't be any more huge jumps to worry about.

These last two are the most I've cared - ever. I want POTUS to take NH and get some read up there in Colonel Jack's AO.

FL called for Bush, OR, WA, and Kali are Kerry's, no surprise. Already claiming legal action is FL, but if the margin holds, I see no reason to pursue it.

210-144

Looks like the Repubs pick up two more Senate seats to give them 53 votes.

Waiting on OH, WI, CO, NH, and NM.

TR

[ghuinness]

Who called FL?

90% returns seems pretty obvious. Only one county with 281K registered voters
has 0 reporting (seminole).

[Gypsy]

Actually Fox reports FL is 95% in....still won't call it. ARGHHHH!

[NousDefionsDoc]

Actually Fox reports FL is 95% in....still won't call it. ARGHHHH!


LOL - can you blame them? Nostradamus wouldn'y run the risk of predicting Florida.

[Gypsy]

LOL well no I don't really...except POTUS is up almost 400K votes over kerry and the remaining 5% doesn't equal that amount...so it *seems* to be a win.

[ghuinness]

Fine - I'll call it !!

FLORIDA IS BUSH COUNTRY!

[Gypsy]

Nice job! :D

[NousDefionsDoc]

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/Elections2004/president.html

So did ABC

[ghuinness]

You're watching ABC? Oh, it's that slow link, I forgot :p

[Roguish Lawyer]

CO to Bush according to CBS . . .

[Roguish Lawyer]

Need Ohio and either New Mexico or Wisconsin . . .

[Gypsy]

CBS also just called FL for Bush.

[The Reaper]

MI and MN have softened up and look like they will go for Kerry.

IA, WI, and NV are in play, but currently slightly favor Kerry.

CO and NM are favoring the POTUS more strongly.

Dems are calling OH still in play due to the uncounted precincts remaining.

TR

[Sigi]

I am really, really nervous right now. Like NDD said these are the first two elections I have ever paid any attention to. This more than the last obviously.

I don't know who needs what, I just hope Pres. Bush gets what he needs.

[Sigi]

Dems are calling OH still in play due to the uncounted precincts remaining.

TR
Around 400K still to count in both Franklin and Cuyahoga (Columbus and Cleveland respectfully) counties.

Both should go Kerry, but nobody knows if the precints are suburbs or inner city. Suburbs go to Kerry. Right now they are showing Kerry ahead 1-2% on local news.

[Roguish Lawyer]

From Ohio official site:

Precincts Reporting: 64.23%
Office Candidate Party Votes % Of Votes
President/Vice President
Bush, George W. Republican 1,879,432 52.18%
Kerry, John F. Democratic 1,699,515 47.18%

[Sigi]

From Ohio official site:

Precincts Reporting: 64.23%
Office Candidate Party Votes % Of Votes
President/Vice President
Bush, George W. Republican 1,879,432 52.18%
Kerry, John F. Democratic 1,699,515 47.18%
Franklin 93% reporting
Cuyahoga 32% reporting

I meant they had Kerry up in those counties, not the state.

Trust me Cuyahoga is the county to watch - and those suburbs of Cleveland are vehemently pro-Kerry (remember when I said I was worried awhile back - it's because I do a lot of work in these lib cities surrounding Cleveland.)

[The Reaper]

CO just called for the Pres.

246-206. 20 from OH would make it very close to the magicv number.

TR

[Roguish Lawyer]

AK is safe, but only 3 votes.

[Roguish Lawyer]

So, how are the Lakers going to do this year? LMAO

[The Reaper]

NH and the odd ME seat just called for Kerry.

246-211.

Ohio? Ohio?

TR

[NousDefionsDoc]

So, how are the Lakers going to do this year? LMAO


They're going to suck. They let the wrong guy go and kept the big baby.

[ghuinness]

Fox just called OH for Bush

[The Reaper]

NH and the odd ME seat just called for Kerry.

246-211.

Ohio? Ohio?

TR

Fox just called Ohio for Bush.

266-211, and ahead in AK and NM, close in three others.

All he needs is 4 more, and to win any legal challenges.

Whiskey time!

TR

[Gypsy]

Fox just announced Bush takes OHIO!!!!!!!!

[NousDefionsDoc]

Looks like Daschle might lose his Senate seat.

[gits]

Alright we can all rest and wake up tommorow morning as Bush as our pres!

[ghuinness]

I predict Kerry makes a speech which starts "I have a plan..." :D

[Roguish Lawyer]

They're going to suck. They let the wrong guy go and kept the big baby.

I have always found you to be an insightful guy. ;)

[Roguish Lawyer]

MIN to Kerry. Whatever.

[NousDefionsDoc]

Did the guy running in Edwards place lose his seat? Sorry, I don't know who it was.

[The Reaper]

Did the guy running in Edwards place lose his seat? Sorry, I don't know who it was.

Drudge has called the election for Bush and Edwards seat went Republican.

TR

[Roguish Lawyer]

Did the guy running in Edwards place lose his seat? Sorry, I don't know who it was.

Yep. Say hello to Senator Richard Burr (R-NC).

[gits]

Fox's prediction shouldnt let us down! They have a 1/300 chace of being wrong on Ohio.

[The Reaper]

Yep. Say hello to Senator Richard Burr (R-NC).

Fox just called AK for the POTUS, now 269, so as soon as they call NM, it is up to the courts.

If POTUS wins a couple of more states, it could make the court issues moot.

TR

[Gonzo]

MSNBC is declaring Bush the winner in Ohio too. Still no word from CBS

[Roguish Lawyer]

NV and IA both extremely close -- about 1000 votes each.

[ghuinness]

Maybe I missed some Iowa updates, but it is starting to look like Bush is pulling ahead. This is the first time tonight I have noticed about a 3K lead.

[The Reaper]

NV and IA both extremely close -- about 1000 votes each.

Latest has Bush up in both, by tiny margins, and up in NM with about a 5% edge.

TR

[Ambush Master]

I pray to GOD that this is not a premature call for adulation !!


Shall we sing a Hymn.....

(Warm up first)
Meeee Meeee Meeee..

HIMMMM HIMMMM FUCK HIM !!!!!!

Thank YOU God for W !!!!

[gits]

POTUS is currently leading IOWA by like 1000 votes and down 22,000 in Wisconsin so he cut his Kerry's lead by 8-9K hopfully POTUS will win them both and we won't have any legal problems.

[NousDefionsDoc]

I pray to GOD that this is not a premature call for adulation !!


Shall we sing a Hymn.....

(Warm up first)
Meeee Meeee Meeee..

HIMMMM HIMMMM FUCK HIM !!!!!!

Thank YOU God for W !!!!


LOL

[NousDefionsDoc]

Yahoo has POTUS up a point in Iowa

[Roguish Lawyer]

This all confirms that exit polls don't mean squat.

[The Reaper]

Yahoo has POTUS up a point in Iowa

Yeah, but they are refusing to call Ohio yet.

TR

[ghuinness]

Iowa - spread is now 7K

Fox just made a statement from the Dems. They refuse to accept OH has gone to Bush. 2000 chad syndrome part deux.

[Gypsy]

Ms. Cahill said the provisional ballots in OH need to be counted (supposedly 250K and she must think they are all for skerry)

[gits]

The dems just keep crying they just need to give it up and conceede already. Kerry needs to win out the rest of the 10% of the precincts left to win. Theres absolutly no way they can do this. I think Bush was up 7000 in IOWA I beleive and down 20000 in Wisconsin still. Those provisional ballots are said to be really only good if Bush is up 50,000 in the end of the polling.

[NousDefionsDoc]

'Nite all. 'Nite POTUS and VP. See ya manana. :lifter

[Gypsy]

Nighty Night NDD.


I can't believe they wait 10 days to count those ballots that is ridiculous.

[The Reaper]

Russert looks like a kid who came downstairs on 25 Dec and found nothing under the tree.

LMMFAO!! CLASSIC!!

TR

[gits]

So what keeps you all up at this time of the election? Waitin for a confirmation? Concession speech by Kerry?

[Gypsy]

I flipped to CBS just for giggles, Rather looks like a deer caught in the headlights of a semi.

:D

[Gypsy]

So what keeps you all up at this time of the election? Waitin for a confirmation? Concession speech by Kerry?

Been holding out for a definitive answer on my President...but I'm going to say POTUS is G2G and call it a night.

haha...I can't wait for skerry to return to nothingness, and he can take that witch of a wife with him thank God. Bet he gets a frying pan to the head (from the maid of course, I'm sure Mrs. Ketchup-face doesn't touch such things like us common folk...) :p

[The Reaper]

So what keeps you all up at this time of the election? Waitin for a confirmation? Concession speech by Kerry?

I want to see the arrogant bastards in the media who did their best to throw the election and conspired to defeat the POTUS admit that George W. Bush is the democratically elected winner of the electoral and popular vote.

That, and maybe catch the plane with Michael Moore and all of the celebs on it headed out of the U.S.

Jennings is bragging on Kerry winning NH and MN, while conspicuously ignoring OH, NM, NV, and IA. ABC's version of an impartial commentator, George Stephanopolis is providing an assist.

TR

[gits]

Alright! POTUS has 11000+ votes on IOWA with 95% of precincts in, Thune looks like hes gonna win it. And It looks like Republicans will end up with 55 Senate seats. What a good night!

[Sigi]

Alright! POTUS has 11000+ votes on IOWA with 95% of precincts in, Thune looks like hes gonna win it. And It looks like Republicans will end up with 55 Senate seats. What a good night!
Didn't Edwards lose his seat to a Republican?

[The Reaper]

Didn't Edwards lose his seat to a Republican?

Have you been following this thread?

Back up a page or two and try to keep up.

TR

[gits]

I think Edwards did lose his seat. Apparently he gave up his seat or somethnig and the challenger got it. With Bush almost at 4 Million+ in popular vote Kerry and Edwards are making an appearance which could be a concession speech. Only time will tell.

[Bravo1-3]

Statistically, Kerry needs to win something on the order of 75% of the Absentee and Provisional Ballots in order to win Ohio. 96% reporting 48% for Kerry and 51% for Bush. There's less than a snowballs chance in hell Kerry will win Ohio.

Bush has a 5% spread in New Mexico with 96% reporting a 52-47 lead, and Now that the outer counties of Nevada are reporting Bush is up 1%. He's got 51% of the popular vote too not that it matters, but it has to burn all those fucking leftist bastards! I do believe that Reagan was the only President to get that kind of split in recent history.

Someone call a fat lady, we need a song!

[Sigi]

Have you been following this thread?

Back up a page or two and try to keep up.

TR
I have been trying to follow the election. I have been to so many damn sites tonight that I forgot where I read it. Of course it was most likely here. Just thought it deserved repeating! :D

[Sweetbriar]

Poor Dan Rather. He's almost in a rage. Ed Bradley and Leslie Stahl are leaning towards Bush winning, and Rather just can't keep them corralled. He must think nobody is watching. I'm really enjoying this election.

[BMT (RIP)]

Looks as though I can safely put my NITRO tabs back in my pocket!!

BMT

[brownapple]

Edwards is out of a job, Daschle is out of a job, now the only thing left is for Massachusetts to recall Kerry and New York to get rid of Hillary.

[Team Sergeant]

I hear the democrats have fielded a new party motto:

RECOUNT!

[Jo Sul]

Democrats rally large numbers of voters that can't count, who soon discover they don't count, then demand a recount.

[ktek01]

Edwards is out of a job, Daschle is out of a job, now the only thing left is for Massachusetts to recall Kerry and New York to get rid of Hillary.

Awesome, so focused on the POTUS I didnt even know Dascle was up for re-election. Or as it turned out, rejection! :D

[Jo Sul]

Edwards is out of a job, Daschle is out of a job, now the only thing left is for Massachusetts to recall Kerry and New York to get rid of Hillary.

Perhaps Ted Kennedy can take Hillary for a long drive - he's got to go over a bridge again sooner or later.

[Gypsy]

Just heard on ABC news he plans to concede the election at 1pm today. :lifter

[The Reaper]

Just heard on ABC news he plans to concede the election at 1pm today. :lifter

Fox just said that Kerry has already called Bush to concede.

TR

[Gypsy]

EXCELLENT news Sir! I'm bound only by a radio at work and was searching for an article.

God bless OUR President...and our Country.

~breathing sighs of relief!~

[Airbornelawyer]

The refusal to concede Ohio (by Kedwards, CNN, CBS, ABC, etc.) is revolting. It is beyond simply "every vote must count" BS and into, let's start the lawyers and conspiracy theories rolling.

With 100% reporting:

Bush - 2,796,147 51.01%
Kerry - 2,659,664 48.52%

That is a margin on 136,483.

Provisional ballots? Right now there are reportedly 135,149. Several counties have not reported their provisional ballot numbers, but based on the numbers from comparably sized counties, at most there will be 170,000. Kerry would have to take 90% of these to erase Bush's margin. Even if the goal were simply to get the margin narrow enough to force a statutorily-mandated recount, Kerry would need about 85%.

[The Reaper]

EXCELLENT news Sir! I'm bound only by a radio at work and was searching for an article.

God bless OUR President...and our Country.

~breathing sighs of relief!~


Keep checking http://www.drudgereport.com/

They break faster than major media.

I want to see him say it myself.

TR

[Airbornelawyer]

AP is reporting he has conceded.

[Airbornelawyer]

Link:

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=514&e=1&u=/ap/20041103/ap_on_el_pr/eln_election_rdp

[Gypsy]

Thank you for that reminder Sir. I too want to hear it with my own ears...purely for my own selfish satisfaction.

[The Reaper]

So, after the debacles of 2002 and 2004, anyone want to make odds on how much longer Terry McAuliffe has the DNC Chair?

A quick count of seats and a loss by a majority should be a clue, but if they want to keep him, I am all for it.

TR

[Bravo1-3]

He announced some time ago that after this election, he would step down as DNC Chair. Too bad, with McAuliffe in charge, the whole damn country would be in GOP hands by 2010.

I say FOUR MORE YEARS! :D

[The Reaper]

He announced some time ago that after this election, he would step down as DNC Chair. Too bad, with McAuliffe in charge, the whole damn country would be in GOP hands by 2010.

I say FOUR MORE YEARS! :D


SECONDED!!

"Keep Terry Mac! Four more years!!"

TR

[NousDefionsDoc]

I want to hear from teh-ray-za!

They (GOP) need to start working on '08 right now. Shrillary is going to be tough to beat.

[Guy]

I want to hear from teh-ray-za!

They (GOP) need to start working on '08 right now. Shrillary is going to be tough to beat.

I'd put JC Watts up against her. Edwards is going to play a major factor also.

[NousDefionsDoc]

I would run Guiliani or McCain or both. They need to break her hold on the Northeast. I would probably run both. Guiliani for the Northeast and McCain for the SW+Kalifornia.

If they try to push that amendement so Arnhold can run, they'll lose.

[Bravo1-3]

I would run Guiliani or McCain or both. They need to break her hold on the Northeast. I would probably run both. Guiliani for the Northeast and McCain for the SW+Kalifornia.

If they try to push that amendement so Arnhold can run, they'll lose.

Rudy Giuliani isn't a viable candidate IMHO. He plays well on the East Coast, but he won't make it in the South... he's not exactly a "Main Stream" Republican.

McCain would make a great candidate for 2008. I think he' the draft pick at the moment. That can change in the next year or so. Rudy might make a good VP for him.

I think it's going to come down to the mid-term elections in 2006 before we get a picture of what we can expect in 2008. With 4 new seats in the Senate, GOP Senators interested in 2008 ticket are going to get a lot of visibility, and I think it would be a good idea for the RNC to get McCain in the spotlight starting in 2005... both in support of and in opposition to the President. :lifter

Anyone want to take bets on the 2008 DNC Presidential Ticket?

[Guy]

I forgot about Rudy.

[Guy]

Anyone want to take bets on the 2008 DNC Presidential Ticket?

Until I see how the GOP handles it self since they control the Senate and House.

[Jo Sul]

Lets all scratch our crystal balls and look into the future - who will the Democrats put up for the next election?

I say Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

[Airbornelawyer]

I want to hear from teh-ray-za!

They (GOP) need to start working on '08 right now. Shrillary is going to be tough to beat.
They need to start working on 2006. Among other things, they need to find a credible candidate to defeat or seriously wound Hillary.

And Feinstein in Cali. And Teddy in Mass and Byrd in West-by-God Virginia.

And, following the SD/SC/GA/NC/LA trend, defeating Democratic senators in other red or battleground states: Nelson (D-FL), Stabenow (D-MI), Carnahan (D-MO), Dayton (D-MN), Nelson (D-NE), Conrad (D-ND) and Cantwell (D-WA). All but Kent Conrad won narrowly in 2000.

[ghuinness]

I want to hear from teh-ray-za!

They (GOP) need to start working on '08 right now. Shrillary is going to be tough to beat.

A few of us at work already expect a Cliinton/Obama ticket in 2008.

[NousDefionsDoc]

They need to start working on 2006. Among other things, they need to find a credible candidate to defeat or seriously wound Hillary.

And Feinstein in Cali. And Teddy in Mass and Byrd in West-by-God Virginia.

And, following the SD/SC/GA/NC/LA trend, defeating Democratic senators in other red or battleground states: Nelson (D-FL), Stabenow (D-MI), Carnahan (D-MO), Dayton (D-MN), Nelson (D-NE), Conrad (D-ND) and Cantwell (D-WA). All but Kent Conrad won narrowly in 2000.


Good point.

[The Reaper]

I would run Guiliani or McCain or both. They need to break her hold on the Northeast. I would probably run both. Guiliani for the Northeast and McCain for the SW+Kalifornia.

If they try to push that amendement so Arnhold can run, they'll lose.

McCain and Guiliani are too liberal to get the base out to vote for them. Witness McCain's involvement in getting Hillary as the guest speaker at the SOWF Vet's Day dinner.

If the Dems want to keep tossing Yankee libs out as candidates, they can watch their hold on power continue to slip. No need for the Republicans to emulate them.

POTUS missed a chance to get a Veep who could help him more and would be postured to run in 2008.

The next Republican candidate needs to be a moderate-conservative who will keep the base active, and attract a new constituency.

I would not bother to vote for McCain, Guiliani, Spector, or Powell. I might go just to vote against Hillary. Witness the Dem's motivation in this election. It is not a winning strategy.

I would go to vote for Watt, Rice, a conservative Governor, or a conservative Senator.

Hillary has about a constant 30-40% negative, or people who would vote for anyone else but her. That does not necessarily translate into votes as many opt merely to stay home on Election Day.

Understand the enemy, and use their own systems to defeat them.

TR

[NousDefionsDoc]

Lets all scratch our crystal balls and look into the future - who will the Democrats put up for the next election?

I say Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.


I'm a QP, mine are brass, not crystal. ;)

[NousDefionsDoc]

McCain and Guiliani are too liberal to get the base out to vote for them. Witness McCain's involvement in getting Hillary as the guest speaker at the SOWF Vet's Day dinner.

If the Dems want to keep tossing Yankee libs out as candidates, they can watch their hold on power continue to slip. No need for the Republicans to emulate them.

POTUS missed a chance to get a Veep who could help him more and would be postured to run in 2008.

The next Republican candidate needs to be a moderate-conservative who will keep the base active, and attract a new constituency.

I would not bother to vote for McCain, Guiliani, Spector, or Powell. I might go just to vote against Hillary. Witness the Dem's motivation in this election. It is not a winning strategy.

I would go to vote for Watt, Rice, a conservative Governor, or a conservative Senator.

Hillary has about a constant 30-40% negative, or people who would vote for anyone else but her. That does not necessarily translate into votes as many opt merely to stay home on Election Day.

Understand the enemy, and use their own systems to defeat them.

TR

Agreed. But McCain/Guiliani have two years to wake up and smell the coffee. Maybe they will take the hint.

[brownapple]

Rudy Giuliani isn't a viable candidate IMHO. He plays well on the East Coast, but he won't make it in the South... he's not exactly a "Main Stream" Republican.

McCain would make a great candidate for 2008. I think he' the draft pick at the moment. That can change in the next year or so. Rudy might make a good VP for him.

I think it's going to come down to the mid-term elections in 2006 before we get a picture of what we can expect in 2008. With 4 new seats in the Senate, GOP Senators interested in 2008 ticket are going to get a lot of visibility, and I think it would be a good idea for the RNC to get McCain in the spotlight starting in 2005... both in support of and in opposition to the President. :lifter

Anyone want to take bets on the 2008 DNC Presidential Ticket?

I believe the opposite. Guiliani is a smart campaigner and a visible and known face nationally with a heck of a good record as Mayor of New York. He would have to make some significant changes in his platform (which I think is possible) and would have a tough time with the "religious right" and other segments of the core, but I think he still is a viable candidate. McCain has some serious baggage and is not in fact viable for a run. Too many skeletons that will disaffect voters.

2008 will depend on if the Democratic Party figures out they don't represent the people anymore. They had a hard time holding their core this election.

If they figure it out, you'll see a moderate in 2008. If they don't, you'll see Hillary.

[Guy]

Hillary is going morph into something else, like a moderate. Just like her husband did.

Barack gave a powerful speech at the DNC and caught my attention.

The next two years will show...who has what it takes to win in 2008. ;)

[Airbornelawyer]

Keep the dynasty alive! The worst nightmare of Terry McAuliffe, Michael Moore, Osama Bin Laden and the DU/Indymedia types....

Bush '08!!! Jeb, that is...

In 2000, Florida went Bush: 2,912,790 (48.8%) to Gore: 2,912,253 (48.8%)
In 2004, Florida went Bush: 3,808,229 (52.1%) to Kerry: 3,440,328 (47.1%) *
(*not the final tally, but the Division of Elections official current standing)

A five percentage point shift in the margin of victory.

In 2000, Florida's 23 House seats broke down 15 Republican to 8 Democrat. In 2002, with redistricting, Florida's 25 seats went 18 to 7. In 2004, the margin remains 18-7 (there were no competitive House seats). Former Sec'y of State Katherine Harris, vilified by the Left in 2000, easily won election and relection to her House seat in 2002 and 2004.

In 2002, Terry McAuliffe made it his mission to destroy Jeb Bush. The Governor won reelection 56% to 43%.

Barring fraud or other shenanigans, Mel Martinez will have taken a Senate seat away from the Democrats. A state constitutional amendment for parental notification for minors seeking abortions passed 65% to 35%. The Republican's 2-1 margin in the Florida State House appears to have increased slightly, while their 26-14 edge in the State Senate held.

Jeb may choose to run against Bill Nelson in 2006. Whether that affects the 2008 scenarios, it's too early to tell.

Conservative governor of what will be the 3rd largest state in the Union by the 2010 census. Presided over expansion of his party's domination of this key state. Famous family.

[Bravo1-3]

AL, Excellent points. I'd like to know how JEB would play nationally. I know recently his job approval rating was something like 80% for a short spell, and I believe he was instrumental in W's victories in some key former Gore counties. That said, is he competetive on a national level, or should he set his sights on the Senate?

[NousDefionsDoc]

Never happen, precisely because it would be a dynasty. And I'm not sure I would want it to. Two from one family, especially direct family and from two generations is enough. We don't do royal families and dynasties and what not over here.

[Airbornelawyer]

Jeb actually ruled out running in 2008 two weeks ago, but I was hung over and missed the report. As for whether we do "royal families and dynasties and what not," but for Sirhan Sirhan, we would have had two brothers running for President eight years apart just a couple of generations ago. Teddy remained a viable national figure until the 1980s, and but for her crappy campaign, Bobby's daughter Kathleen Kennedy Townsend would be the sitting Governor of Maryland and a rising star in the Democratic Party.


Bush will be unable to run for reelection in 2008. In the last elections where there was no incumbent President running for reelection - 1960, 1968, 1988 and 2000 - the Vice President ran.

The last elections where neither a sitting President or VP was a candidate were 1952 and 1928. In 1952, Gen. Eisenhower defeated Gov. Adlai Stevenson of Illinois. In 1928, former Commerce Secretary Herbert Hoover defeated Gov. Al Smith of New York.

The 1952 election was unusual in that Truman initially ran for reelection, but lost to Estes Kefauver in the New Hampshire primary. The only recent comparison would be to Sen. Eugene McCarthy's challenge to LBJ, when McCarthy came in second in New Hampshire. Both cases involved a wartime President unpopular with his party. Both also had won election to the presidency after serving as veep to a popular President who died in office. Thus, perhaps, the fluke was not 1952 and 1968, but 1948 and 1964, when Truman and LBJ won the presidency without having become their party's consensus leaders.

Thus, the last election where the President did not or could not seek reelection and the Vice President was not his successor was 1928. Coolidge had announced in 1927 his intention to not run for reelection. Vice President Charles Dawes (who had been Coolidge's third or fourth choice for a running mate in 1924) barely talked to his own boss, and apparently never even considered seeking the nod to succeed him. He favored Gov. Frank Lowden of Illinois, but Hoover got the nod. President Coolidge actively opposed putting Dawes in the Vice President spot again.

So, with Bush unable to run and Cheney unwilling/unlikely to run (I suppose he could change his mind), and with the Democratic Party likely looking at disarray and potentially a major fight between its Deaniac and DLC wings, this is the most wide-open race since 1928.

Our last 12 elections:

1960: Sitting VP (and former Senator) against Senator: Senator wins
1964: Sitting President (and former Senator) against Senator: Senator loses
1968: Sitting VP (and former Senator) against former VP: former VP wins
1972: Sitting President (and former Senator) against Senator: Senator loses
1976: Sitting President against Governor: Governor wins
1980: Sitting President against Governor: Governor wins
1984: Sitting President against Senator (and former VP): Senator loses
1988: Sitting VP against Governor: Governor loses
1992: Sitting President against Governor: Governor wins
1996: Sitting President against Senator: Senator loses
2000: Sitting VP against Governor: Governor wins
2004: Sitting President against Senator: Senator loses

What does this tell us? Possibly nothing, except that no sitting Senator has won since Kennedy, and the only former Senators to win (Johnson, Nixon) had been President or Vice President in the interim. This doesn't help McCain's chances, unless, perhaps, Cheney were to resign and Bush were to appoint McCain in his place.

There does seem to be a preference for governors, presidents and vice presidents. Partly, this reflects a preference for people with executive leadership experience. That was certainly a Kerry weakness. Partly, it reflects the fact that the executive leaders tend to be more consistently involved in the nuts and bolts of politicking, especially building and maintaining party organizations, than legislators.

So, barring the scenario above of Bush appointing an heir apparent in Cheney's place (which is a remote possibility but is unlikely to be McCain), the strongest candidates are:
George Allen, Jr. - Senator, former Governor; son of a legendary NFL coach; boyish charm; from a large Southern state
Jeb Bush - Governor of a major state; son and brother of Presidents; will maintain Wahhabi/Zionist control of the American regime
Rudy Giuliani - Former mayor of a city larger than most states; immensely popular; has a number of minuses, though
Bill Owens - Governor of Colorado
George Pataki - Governor of New York; a long-shot given his social views (also a problem for Rudy)
Colin Powell - Secretary of State, former CJCS; also a long-shot given his social views
Tom Ridge - Secretary of Homeland Security; former Governor of Pennsylvania
Tommy Thompson - Secretary of HHS; former Governor of WisconsinSen. McCain is out there, as is Sen. Bill Frist and a few others, but I wouldn't bet on him. Gov. Schwarzenegger remains the darkest of dark horses. Besides that whole amending the Constitution hurdle, he also has the social liberalism thing. And there is only a slim chance that he could bring California's electoral votes with him.

[NousDefionsDoc]

No more Moore website?

http://www.michaelmoore.com/

AL,
I knew you would bring up the Kennedys.

Teddy's national aspirations ended in 1969 on a little bridge. I still don't think an average woman can win, we're probably two off from that. I don't think Shrillary can win, I just think she can ruin the election.

[flyboy1]

RL,
Good info and assessment. I would love to see Colin Powell run. :lifter

[Doc]

No more Moore website?

http://www.michaelmoore.com/

That picture of the POTUS was made with the photos of American GI's that were KIA in Iraq.

I guess nothing is sacred with Michael Moore.

[Airbornelawyer]

AL,
I knew you would bring up the Kennedys.

Teddy's national aspirations ended in 1969 on a little bridge. I still don't think an average woman can win, we're probably two off from that. I don't think Shrillary can win, I just think she can ruin the election.Kennedy's realistic chances of winning died along side Mary Jo, but his aspirations remained alive. He had Carter's foreign and domestic problems, his name, and strong support from unions and liberal bastions like the ACLU. In the Iowa caucuses, Carter took 59.1% and Kennedy took 31.2%. In the NH primary, Carter took 47.1%, Kennedy took 37.3%. Kennedy won primaries in New York, California, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and DC and was a close second in Maine, Maryland, Colorado and others. Carter's edge in the South and West carried the day eventually. Kennedy did not withdraw from the race until August 12, 1980, day 2 of the Democratic Convention.

The Kennedys still have dynastic ambitions, though with John-John's death, they only have second-stringers.

JFK - President of the United States
RFK - Attorney-General, might have been the 1968 candidate for President
Eunice Kennedy Shriver - married to Sargent Shriver, the 1972 candidate for VP
Jean Kenedy Smith - Ambassador to Ireland
Edward - Senator, 1962-today

The next generation:

John F. Kennedy Jr. (d. 1999) - despite myriad shortcomings, had a bright political future ahead of him
Kathleen Kennedy Townsend - former Lt. Gov. of Maryland. Noted above
Rep. Patrick J. Kennedy (D-RI)
Joseph P. Kennedy II - former Congressman, reportedly may succeed Teddy in the Senate in 2006
Mark Kennedy Shriver - 2 terms in MD House of Delegates; charity official
Maria Shriver - first lady of California

Others?

[Airbornelawyer]

As a dynasty, the Bushes have them beat already, so maybe Jeb doesn't need to push it.

Prescott - US Senator, 1953-1963
George H.W. Bush - President, 1989-1993; VP, 1981-1989; etc.
George W. Bush - President, 2001-date; Governor of Texas, 1995-2000
John E. "Jeb" Bush - Governor of Florida, 1999-date
Billy Bush - host Access Hollywood
Lauren Bush - model

[Gypsy]

That picture of the POTUS was made with the photos of American GI's that were KIA in Iraq.

I guess nothing is sacred with Michael Moore.

It is the most tasteless disgusting thing he has done imho. Oh but he supports the Troops. That pig needs to drop dead.

[Gypsy]

AL...as always your posts are educational. I'd like to say thank you.

[Achilles]

I really want to see a moderate candidate in 2008. Someone like Arnold could attract the vast majority of independent voters by following highly conservative economic and foreign policy, and offer a middle of the road approach when it comes to social issues. Too bad the governator can't run.

[The Reaper]

I really want to see a moderate candidate in 2008. Someone like Arnold could attract the vast majority of independent voters by following highly conservative economic and foreign policy, and offer a middle of the road approach when it comes to social issues. Too bad the governator can't run.

In an election for President, I would abstain before voting for Arnold (were he eligible).

He is an enemy of the Second Amendment and is only marginally distinguishable from a Democrat.

He is charismatic and better than Gray Davis, I suppose.

TR

[Bravo1-3]

He's the PERFECT Republican... for California.

[evilmonkey0352]

im not saying im a supporter or opponent of Jessie Ventura, but id be curious to see what the opinion of some of the people here is on him. Ive also coma across some articles about Chuck Hagel. The authors were saying he was possible "Presidential timber".

a short article on ventura and his thoughts on running in 08
http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Wrestling/2004/04/16/423891-ap.html