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View Full Version : When is this gonna end!!!!!!!


RichL025
03-19-2013, 18:00
Shit, I just get back from the sandbox and find that ammo is STILL as rare as an intelligent liberal!!!!

Thank God I have a GTW stash laid aside of good stuff, but that means me & the wife are still near bingo on practice ammo... not to mention no IDPA matches...

Is ANYONE seeing an end to this madness yet?

Sdiver
03-19-2013, 18:09
Not until the DHS stops hording it all.

http://www.professionalsoldiers.com/forums/showthread.php?t=41251&highlight=billion

:munchin

PSM
03-19-2013, 18:15
Not until the DHS stops hording it all.

http://www.professionalsoldiers.com/forums/showthread.php?t=41251&highlight=billion

:munchin

Are they buying up 22LR, too? :confused:

Pat

Dusty
03-19-2013, 18:18
It's the same as '08. You'll be able to get all you want in about 4 months, with the exception of 9mm, .357 Sig, and anything that fits into a hicap. :rolleyes:

The Reaper
03-19-2013, 19:32
Local gun dealer is a friend.

He says that black rifles are starting to become available again, at lower prices.

Mags are still in short supply.

Small pistols continue to be in high demand as well.

All ammo is short, no fix before six months, even if demand returned to normal, as the entire distribution chain is cleaned out.

Reloading components like primers and powder are scarce, bullets are even worse.

Pending legislation will continue to adversely affect the market and create artifically high demand until it goes away.

Sorry for the bad news, but it might be getting better, instead of worse.

TR

Stiletto11
03-22-2013, 11:06
If some of the companies actually move out of the liberal states ( like they threatened) it will put them out of commission until they are back up and running; which may take some time. I've been able to get large rifle primers but that's about it on the reloading scene.

Richard
03-22-2013, 11:12
"preppers" v "speculators" inflamed by the bloggers - the new good ol' American way.

Richard :munchin

tonyz
03-22-2013, 11:28
Our political elite "leadership" plays no small part in this matter.

DiFi, Chuckie, Chickenpooper, et al...hell, Coumo even used the words "confiscation."

They (the pols) play no small part in owning much of this mess.

And, it starts at the top.

Richard
03-22-2013, 11:37
Not until the DHS stops hording it all.

The misunderstood .GOV procurement shell game v et al.

http://militarytimes.com/blogs/gearscout/2013/03/15/homeland-securitys-ammunition-purchases-should-not-worry-you/

And so it goes...

Richard :munchin

Sdiver
03-22-2013, 13:01
The misunderstood .GOV procurement shell game v et al.

http://militarytimes.com/blogs/gearscout/2013/03/15/homeland-securitys-ammunition-purchases-should-not-worry-you/

And so it goes...

Richard :munchin

Ah, that makes sense.
It's akin to when the .GOV says they're going to buy "X" number of planes, or tanks, or jeeps, ect., they say how many they're getting and what the cost is going to be.

But, let's crunch some numbers.
Let's take the 1.6 billion rounds that seems to be bandied about.
Over five years.
... and just guesstimating six different types of ammo

1.6 billion / 5 years = 320,000,000 rounds
320 million / 6 different types of ammo = 53,333,333.33 rounds of specific ammo

Now lets' take that number which equals just one type of ammo for one year and divide that by the number of active duty DHS personal. which the number I found is 240,000

53,333,333 / 240,000 = 222.22 per person, per specific type of ammo, per year.

Now those numbers are split right down the middle. Obviously they're going to purchase more of a specific type of ammo over another.
Also, the total number of active duty personnel (240,000) not all need to qualify, retrain, weapon proficiency, ect. (although, I could be wrong on that point).

Taking the active duty number and cutting that in half (to represent those that are weapon qualed, and need to requal, train, practice) it would be ....
444.44 per person, per specific round, per year.

Sure, that last number may not seem like a lot. but when the ammo companies, who have contracts with the .GOV (DHS) as well as the Military, and L.E., ect., they're going to ear mark those rounds made in their plants for those contracts. The civilian markets are going to then suffer, and with those who are "hording" rounds (myself included), I can see gun store's shelves being bare.

Just my "tin-foil hat" thinging. :munchin

Sdiver
03-22-2013, 13:14
Are they buying up 22LR, too? :confused:

Pat

Couldn't tell ya, but I don't think so.

But, in my 'warped" way of thinking, I liken .22LR to Pennies.

Both useful but what's the cost of making a .22 as compared to a .45 or .357, ect? Just as the .GOV is wanting to get rid of the Penny because it's cost too much to make just one. [it cost 2.45 cents to make one Penny ($0.01) .... http://www.nbcnews.com/business/economywatch/it-takes-2-cents-make-penny-say-what-583081 ]

Plus, like Pennies, how many .22LR do you have sitting around in your safe or where ever you keep you ammo? Open any kitchen "everything drawer" and I'm sure you'll find some Pennies in there. Walk down the street and I'm sure you'll see one or two or three just laying on the ground. Now I'm not saying that you'll find .22LR laying on the ground or in your "everything drawer", but you do buy .22 in "BLOCKS". Blocks of 200, 300, 400, or 500, or more, right? You don't use it all in one setting and if you're out and about and stop by your local gun store and see a block of .22 sitting there, you might just pick it up. You keep doing this and the next thing you know you start a thread on PS.com .... http://www.professionalsoldiers.com/forums/showpost.php?p=265127&postcount=1 ;).

Just my $0.02 ... which is really $0.05. :munchin

Dozer523
03-22-2013, 14:57
[COLOR="Lime"]The misunderstood .GOV procurement shell game v et al
Every party needs a pooper . . . Does this tinfoil make me look fat?

35NCO
03-23-2013, 09:51
"preppers" v "speculators" inflamed by the bloggers - the new good ol' American way.

Richard :munchin

I think Richard once again takes the win.

Yesterday I was having lunch with a local wholesaler/distributor here. He told me that the biggest problem is all the other wholesalers and distribution centers are hoarding large quantities of magazines in case there is a ban on mags. That way they can suddenly "release" them all right before any legislation. Or continue the trickle to control the price. He said the same types of things were going on with ammo centers and plants.

Good evidence of this was that all our local stores here in VA just got hoards of ar15's. Most of them showed up within one week of order. If there was such a shortage of these, where did the dozens I just saw yesterday, suddenly come from? The timing could not have been more perfect considering their sudden "release" from various centers and manufactures the moment it was announced that there would not be a "assault weapons ban". Its a game, its a business, people are in it for money, not necessarily just our freedoms.

At first it was annoying to hear about. However, spending some time thinking about it, it is logical to the cycle. The benefit, at least with some hope, is that these companies and distributors will reinvest into better and faster systems of getting the guns and ammo out. The increase in demand and money going back to the gun manufactures will continue to make them more powerful. The money from them will be useful in future fights about the 2nd amendment.

Now if you really want to be upset about speculation, who the hell is going to drive the price back down on NFA MG's? A registered lightning link, which is essentially a hunk of hack saw blade, is now selling for 10-15K! Not even 5 years ago they were still in the 1k-2k range. New they were $25-50 dollars a link in 86. It is also a very small group of very wealthy that drive the price of NFA. There is a limited number of MG's yes, however at this rate a transferable Colt M16 is going to be 50K in the next few years.

FlagDayNCO
03-25-2013, 10:33
Thanks again to Richard, for setting the horizon level.

The grabbing and holding of the ammo and weapons by distributors is amazing. As mentioned, enough of them yell Second Amendment, but think in terms of Dollars.

We have a local shop that is family run and most people agree it is a decent place to purchase. I had mixed feelings on a few occasions, after I experienced the "increased costs" have migrated into other business transactions. The prices on the instant background check run through the Commonwealth went to $40.00 each, at this particular shop. One phone call for two lowers I had transferred in cost me $80.00. The Commonwealth charges less than $3.00 for the call.

They even had the balls to try and charge me for a manufacturer repair, when all the costs including shipping were covered by the manufacturer.

They're selling ammo "cheaper than other stores in the area", but at 5% to 10% less than the extremely higher prices of the other guys.

No, I will not return to this shop.

It does show that even as they are pro 2A, they're running the people through the grinder.

Except for a couple parts, I have everything I need, thankfully. The parts will come through, eventually.

There must be one hell of a warehouse piled high with Bolt Carrier Groups, though. :munchin

35NCO
03-25-2013, 10:57
Except for a couple parts, I have everything I need, thankfully. The parts will come through, eventually.

There must be one hell of a warehouse piled high with Bolt Carrier Groups, though. :munchin

There are other issues with the shortages though. It’s not just about the distributors. Another major factor is that 7075 aluminum is getting much harder to get. So is quality steel to make these products. The demand for 7075 aluminum has spiked rapidly since the first assault weapons ban ended. (Not the only reason) Not only do military contractors need it (War effort), but so do gun manufactures and silencer manufactures. It’s another reason why we are starting to see more "lightweight" “blended” lowers made with more magnesium or other pot metal mixes. Another option is how there is starting to be an influx of polymer and carbon fiber lowers. Forged and metal injection is another method that is used on the cheaper route. The quality stuff, like Billet machined is where there is a shortage.

The Reaper
03-25-2013, 18:01
Thanks again to Richard, for setting the horizon level.

The grabbing and holding of the ammo and weapons by distributors is amazing. As mentioned, enough of them yell Second Amendment, but think in terms of Dollars.

We have a local shop that is family run and most people agree it is a decent place to purchase. I had mixed feelings on a few occasions, after I experienced the "increased costs" have migrated into other business transactions. The prices on the instant background check run through the Commonwealth went to $40.00 each, at this particular shop. One phone call for two lowers I had transferred in cost me $80.00. The Commonwealth charges less than $3.00 for the call.

They even had the balls to try and charge me for a manufacturer repair, when all the costs including shipping were covered by the manufacturer.

They're selling ammo "cheaper than other stores in the area", but at 5% to 10% less than the extremely higher prices of the other guys.

No, I will not return to this shop.

It does show that even as they are pro 2A, they're running the people through the grinder.

Except for a couple parts, I have everything I need, thankfully. The parts will come through, eventually.

There must be one hell of a warehouse piled high with Bolt Carrier Groups, though. :munchin

From a machining perspective the Bolt Carrier is one of the hardest parts to manufacture. IIRC, it takes between 60 and 90 minutes of machining per carrier.

TR

The_Mentalist
06-20-2013, 06:41
Hoarding is a major issue. People grabbing anything they can when they spot it available. Another issue is the low life's that are buying in bulk by bringing their entire extended family with them to sell it at a gun show. Some of these know the delivery dates at the box stores or are padding the pockets of the box store employees. Then, they fill up an entire cart with high demand ammo and when they get to the register, each of the 15 relative buys 3 cases. In the mean time, #16 is standing by with another 48 cases on a different cart. Wen the first cart is loaded into the car/truck, they go in to a different cashier and do the same routine again. 3 boxes per person and a case counts as a box in the stores like bass pro. So, their shelves are wiped out and the guy has 93 cases of ammo to sell at a seriously marked up price come gun show weekend.

This problem will not resolve itself until people stop panic buying and buy only to replenish their "standard" stockpile. For me, that is around 5K total rounds for all calibers I need. Not 5K each, but total. That feeds 30 guns for 7 people including the grand kids. (All but 2 are my guns). I do plan on increasing the size of my stash because of this occurrence but not exorbitantly so. Bear in mind, that on rang day, all of us go through more than 2K rounds just for practice. These numbers do not include the 22 that we burn up. That is bonus plinking. Also, I plan on attending a lot of tactical training and will be using boat loads of 45 and 5.56 for a while with that.

badshot
06-20-2013, 12:50
Thanks TR l've been waiting to buy a Sig M11 for months, hopefully by spring then.

Hi-Powers are even getting into the old 1911 price range and range time has suffered to conserve the few hundred high quality rounds left. 38's (soft) are at least available here at a reasonable price.

bubba
06-20-2013, 14:09
I am seriously considering buying a 270 just because I can find ammo for it. I have seen plenty of it, plenty of variaty / grains, and at a decent (dollar or less per round) price. It's a good round for a bolt gun, you can hunt most anything in North America with it, why not? Yup, next buy is a Rem 700 BDL in 270

badshot
06-20-2013, 15:04
I am seriously considering buying a 270 just because I can find ammo for it. I have seen plenty of it, plenty of variaty / grains, and at a decent (dollar or less per round) price. It's a good round for a bolt gun, you can hunt most anything in North America with it, why not? Yup, next buy is a Rem 700 BDL in 270

An under rated flat shooter that's quite effective for Elk...

The Reaper
06-20-2013, 18:52
Hoarding is a major issue. People grabbing anything they can when they spot it available. Another issue is the low life's that are buying in bulk by bringing their entire extended family with them to sell it at a gun show. Some of these know the delivery dates at the box stores or are padding the pockets of the box store employees. Then, they fill up an entire cart with high demand ammo and when they get to the register, each of the 15 relative buys 3 cases. In the mean time, #16 is standing by with another 48 cases on a different cart. Wen the first cart is loaded into the car/truck, they go in to a different cashier and do the same routine again. 3 boxes per person and a case counts as a box in the stores like bass pro. So, their shelves are wiped out and the guy has 93 cases of ammo to sell at a seriously marked up price come gun show weekend.

This problem will not resolve itself until people stop panic buying and buy only to replenish their "standard" stockpile. For me, that is around 5K total rounds for all calibers I need. Not 5K each, but total. That feeds 30 guns for 7 people including the grand kids. (All but 2 are my guns). I do plan on increasing the size of my stash because of this occurrence but not exorbitantly so. Bear in mind, that on rang day, all of us go through more than 2K rounds just for practice. These numbers do not include the 22 that we burn up. That is bonus plinking. Also, I plan on attending a lot of tactical training and will be using boat loads of 45 and 5.56 for a while with that.


So you are shooting 40% of your total ammo inventory every time you go to the range, and wind up with less than 100 rounds per weapon on hand when you are done?

2,000 rounds will cost more than $1500 to replace, if it were available.

If this is the case, sorry, but I have to question your logic.

TR

kgoerz
06-20-2013, 21:09
Since were talking Ammo. My expendable 7.62 Ammo is getting low.

I have .45 and 5.56 73 grain HP. Also 62 grain 5.56 AP. Looking to trade for 7.62 one for one. I know 7.62 cost more. But someone might need what I have, vice verse.

The_Mentalist
06-22-2013, 09:46
So you are shooting 40% of your total ammo inventory every time you go to the range, and wind up with less than 100 rounds per weapon on hand when you are done?

2,000 rounds will cost more than $1500 to replace, if it were available.

If this is the case, sorry, but I have to question your logic.

TR
Haven't been to the range since the ammo crunch hit. Each range trip was immediately preceded by an ammo purchase to cover projected use as well as additional "range" stock purchased as I find it on sale. We use primarily FMJ rounds for practice and keep our HD and hunting stock relatively untouched most of the time. The step son and his wife just blow ammo, so I get the cheapest garbage I can find for them. I get quality, but not precision rounds for my and the grand kids practice. Premium ammo is what is kept in stock. Unfortunately, I can't get stepson to understand the purpose of keeping arms and to stop treating them like fire works. Fortunately, the kids listen.

Any way, that is why the numbers seem off. I don't even count range ammo that I stock up but only count HD ammo.

Oldrotorhead
06-22-2013, 10:13
Here I'm starting to see 9mm, .40 and .45 on the shelves for days not minutes. Walmart , Academy Sports and Gander are keeping low end ARs in stock. .22 is still in short supply and still goes quickly. I'm also hearing locally that a munber of horders have over spent and will not be able to break even if they sell. ;) Ar mags are also almost back to list price. Magpul Gen. 2 for less that $19 at Academy. This may not hold true in other areas.

The Reaper
06-22-2013, 11:00
Here I'm starting to see 9mm, .40 and .45 on the shelves for days not minutes. Walmart , Academy Sports and Gander are keeping low end ARs in stock. .22 is still in short supply and still goes quickly. I'm also hearing locally that a munber of horders have over spent and will not be able to break even if they sell. ;) Ar mags are also almost back to list price. Magpul Gen. 2 for less that $19 at Academy. This may not hold true in other areas.

Same here.

I saw probably 15-20 AR variants at Ed's the other day.

Mags are readily available, some MILSPECs as low as $11 each.

Ammo is slowly coming back, 5.56 is back under $500/M.

Components are the only thing still in real shortage.

I hope the profiteers get their asses burned.

TR

Peregrino
06-22-2013, 11:19
I hope the profiteers get their asses burned.
TR

Hear, hear!

frostfire
06-22-2013, 11:57
a buddy got 50rds 9mm for less than $10 at walmart last week :eek: He did some jedi mind trick and got 4 boxes instead of 3. NO, I'm not telling which walmart it is :D

You may laugh, but I'm going to BB for gun- handling practice and my 1960's .177 pellet pistol for precision practice. The 1000fps+ .177 is also good for scoped precision practice. No substitute for semiauto precision hard hold practice though. Then there's always the EST system on post. It pays devident to take a few hours and get certified to operate it

badshot
06-22-2013, 16:44
a buddy got 50rds 9mm for less than $10 at walmart last week :eek: He did some jedi mind trick and got 4 boxes instead of 3. NO, I'm not telling which walmart it is :D

You may laugh, but I'm going to BB for gun- handling practice and my 1960's .177 pellet pistol for precision practice. The 1000fps+ .177 is also good for scoped precision practice. No substitute for semiauto precision hard hold practice though. Then there's always the EST system on post. It pays devident to take a few hours and get certified to operate it

Funny, I've been shooting the Pellet rifle more lately as well

The_Mentalist
06-22-2013, 19:52
One thing I am wondering is how this is affecting range time for units. Is the price increase affecting Redtrain budgets and are they having a hard time getting the ammo into inventory? I realize that deployed units have priority and can get what they need, but is range training and qualification cut back?

BigJimCalhoun
06-22-2013, 22:03
I am seeing 7.62x39 online in both FMJ and Hollow point. I am hoping to find some Wolf .223 soon.

frostfire
06-23-2013, 00:49
I am seeing 7.62x39 online in both FMJ and Hollow point. I am hoping to find some Wolf .223 soon.

.223 Wolf is at walmart around here. Kudos to walmart for not spiking the price like folks at gunshow

Make sure the steel ammo trade-off is worth it:
http://www.luckygunner.com/labs/brass-vs-steel-cased-ammo/