View Full Version : Afghan Security Not Ready for 2014, Report Says
Well not like this is anything new.. Where's the peace pipe?? I didn;t know either to start a new thread or place this back into the nightmare called Afghanistan Thread.
Afghan Security Not Ready for 2014, Report Says (http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2012/10/31/afghan-security-not-ready-for-2014-report-says)
By Paul D. Shinkman
October 31, 2012
Afghanistan won't be ready to maintain the infrastructure for its security forces following the kind of drawdown that both candidates for president prescribe, a new report finds.
A low hiring rate, few technical skills, an inefficient procurement process and a lack of preparedness are among the reasons the U.S. Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction believes that country won't be able to operate and maintain its own security forces' facilities after the U.S. and coalition troops begin withdrawing in 2014.
The report follows up on the $800 million the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers gave to a Exelis, a Virginia-based contractor, in 2010 to ensure Afghan security forces in both the northern and southern parts of the country would be able to maintain their facilities.
In a memo included in the report, the corps officials state Exelis was not performing sufficient quality control on the services it was contracted to supply.
The full report is available here (http://www.sigar.mil/pdf/audits/2012-10-30audit-13-1.pdf).
Unapologetic Soldier
11-04-2012, 00:14
Yep nothing new! IMO, lack of logistical capabilities and corruption will be the demise of ANSF come 2014.
Basenshukai
11-04-2012, 10:34
Oh, well. We can't hang out in there forever. So, if they are not ready, they are not ready. As an officer who has literally picked up our men in pieces off the battlefield, I'm no longer willing to sacrifice any more of our blood and treasure for people that refuse to move forward. The horse does not want to drink water - even after we have moved the water to him - then let him die of thirst.
Destrier
11-04-2012, 10:57
We were less prepared to fight the Brits.
The Reaper
11-04-2012, 11:09
We were less prepared to fight the Brits.
Possibly, but we had men of vision, integrity, and a system that was functional.
I don't think the Afghans have any of the above. Good governance is going to be the key, and they don't have it.
I am beginning to come around to Bas' perspective.
TR
Astronomy
11-04-2012, 13:26
Basenshukai: ...I'm no longer willing to sacrifice any more of our blood and treasure for people that refuse to move forward. The horse does not want to drink water - even after we have moved the water to him - then let him die of thirst.
Exactly. All we ever needed in Afghanistan were local alliances...which we had in 2001/2002. There was never a necessity for a functioning country or further nation building.
Even under the old monarchy, Afghanistan was more properly a geographic region than a nation. U.S. GWOT goals in Afghanistan could have been met with a permanently decentralized federation and a merely ceremonial rump Kabul government.
I liked the warlord system better. It was a cash and carry, results oriented arrangement that better suited our purpose.
However you want to look at it.. 5000 or 2000 years of the same thing and living in the 15th century in the 21st century makes a difference.
2014 we need to pull out and pull out completely, no stay behind.. I even go on to say no JCETs, ETC. Let the DoS do their work, they do it so well!!!
Between Iranian and ISI influences and outsiders - TB and AQ this place, not a country will never change from the 1980's to the 6th century. Just as it had taken Alexander the Great nearly three years to subdue Afghanistan but never conquer it. They people just live as they have always.
The warlord goes back to their "old Ways" of ruling. It takes on the tribal lines and the Maliks, elders, and Khans. Yes much better system for here. It has worked for centuries!!
Roguish Lawyer
11-04-2012, 14:24
Would your answers be different if the ROE were more to your liking? :munchin
blue02hd
11-04-2012, 15:12
Would your answers be different if the ROE were more to your liking? :munchin
All due respect, how many of our brothers need to be buried before we realize history does in fact repeat itself? The Russians did not have a ROE as restrictive as the current ROE proves to be, history records their failure.
Before you begin to launch nukes at me reference all the differences between now and then, understand my point that we do not have a tangible reachable metric GOAL. The Taliban were routed, we removed the threat. It WAS worth it then.
But like Basenshukai, I have to admit that burying our dead, and holding the grieving for onwards of ten years makes one (me) wish for something more than a political reason or a "HOPE" that the Afghans will stand up for themselves. I'm personally of the mind they will be fine without us. In many ways they are MUCH better negotiators than we are, as their foreign policy is rooted at the village level, and those villages/tribes WILL survive another 1000 years beyond 2012.
I've connected with villages in AFG, and I do have many friends who speak Pashtuun that are more honorable than many so called citizens on this side of the pond, but are any of them worth a Mike Duskin? Art Lilly? Stan Harriman? There are over twenty more names I can personally offer, and I do not presume to be alone with this example. Camp Brown has a wall with a list of all of the names of lost heroes that are much better men than most US citizens will ever know, and it continues to grow. I hope you can see my point, and a point many others are expressing privately these days.
ROE has nothing to do with it.
Well that is 'real' news....like they'll ever be ready by our standards...not in this century.
Would your answers be different if the ROE were more to your liking? :munchin
Not sure if your asking me or just a general Question Sir.
ROE does have a play in it but not much IMO. ROE is crazy since 2010, when a GFC has to call up to his higher to ask permission, which to me is like a 4th grader asking for a permission slip, to blow up a cache because he trained EOD technician want to blow it, but becuase of ROE it is in a compound or next to a compound the GFC must ask hiher. Whihc higher has to call their higher HQ to get that permission slip!!
I agree with what GEN McChrystal stated about killing an insurent. When you kill 2 insurgents you get his brothers, cousins, uncles and anyone that knew him into the Insurgency.
Yes the constant repeat of CivCas incidents due threatens the mission. But when Civillians are dressed the same as the fighters and run and drop their weapons and then claim he is innocent civilians. Yes I get the "other Afghan Math" - for every innocent person killed, ten new enemies are created for the insurgency.
But we are way beyond anything about ROE. ROE don't help. This report is about Astan not being ready. Why because were major Military units, Command, Regional Commands, organizations, NTM-A and/or Whatevers have been lieing to everyone and even themselves. Since 2010 at least 2011 Major units on key bases here should be leading their own ANA and not the ISAF or NATO or SOF Forces. Take the kid off the Tit women!!!
Roguish Lawyer
11-04-2012, 22:55
Not sure if your asking me or just a general Question Sir.
No need to call me Sir, I work for a living.
It is a general question based on a conversation with another QP friend of mine. Not questioning anything previously said, just asking a corollary question. Responses above are most appreciated, I hope I've not strayed from my lane in asking.
Exactly. All we ever needed in Afghanistan were local alliances...which we had in 2001/2002. There was never a necessity for a functioning country or further nation building.
Even under the old monarchy, Afghanistan was more properly a geographic region than a nation. U.S. GWOT goals in Afghanistan could have been met with a permanently decentralized federation and a merely ceremonial rump Kabul government.
I liked the warlord system better. It was a cash and carry, results oriented arrangement that better suited our purpose.
:lifter
Stay safe.
I seriously doubt if Afghan's security would be ready in 2525 if Buck Rogers was the theater CINC.
Richard :munchin
No need to call me Sir, I work for a living.
It is a general question based on a conversation with another QP friend of mine. Not questioning anything previously said, just asking a corollary question. Responses above are most appreciated, I hope I've not strayed from my lane in asking.
Hell.. lane?? Never to many forked road around here!! Pick and Choose your lane. As some say.. Firers watch your lane!! LOL
What is really funny for me is the full circle I have seen coming back here every year!!. My wife and family could believe that I have been here every year. Yes most of the time it's overlap from one year to the next. So I have seen how us, SF along with Conventional, have changed over the years. One main factor that has never change, and glad it will not. Is reading stuff about how these new guys or these guys (SF) with Breads or these Special men don't just lay down or these Americans don't run away from the fight they stay and fight, these Americans attack us and don't run.. This is in the American sectors or RCs even. Not the NATO/ISAF Sectors!! YES SF roll into an area and we are attacking INS in there beds, I hate to say it, But the kick in the door and shoot someone in their face works. But on the flip side I have seen SF become MORE Conventional over here while Conventional units have taken on the SOF "look". Conventional units = Non-standard uniforms, Body kit items not all in the same spot, Baseball caps at unit level issue out, Civillian clothing on FOBs, ETC. I know this is way off target for this thread.
But we ISAF, NATO, SOF or whomever you want to point fingers at. Haven't done a good job at many different levels for the state of Afghanistan. Just as in combat, the unit level is were everything should be focused. At least the support towards. But no it's not, many commanders think their command is the focus!! As you moving up the hierarchy, examined regimental and brigade-levels on large to their forward-operating bases isolated from the high headquarters what do you have. "Stove-piping" going on because data directly to decision makers, bypassing established procedures for review or support. Mass emails driving so much here and so many different emails with some many different things that no one has time to read them. I can go on and one. I was shocked my last trip when I work at a main ANA Special OPS base that conduct 70% of their operations, planning, support, logistical, etc. Between the Military, civilians, contractors and ANA no wonder we are were we are now. At every level poeple wrote report that just lied about what was going on. Military were afraid of the promotions, their Jobs, reputation or whatevers. Last person set up this program/thing and it's broken but you can say it because of whatever reason, he is a friend, Generals pawidan, tied to someone, whatever again.
I say you can even say that the whole non-nation building period of Bush era to DoS USAID in so many different places just sucks. I feel mainly just because we dump money into elite of third world countries. USAID economic aid or USG Military aid Good or bad, up to you. I have been told something like this.. The United States basically is ill-equipped within the governmental structures to take on the nation-building mission. Why?? Even when and where that is appropriate; hell look how well we do with natural disasters in the US. Being over here, we do not have any, to put in a military terms, an "operational arm" proficient in nation building in the way that it has a Department of Defense has an "operational arm proficient" in projecting military power. That's my issue with DoS, USAID even DoD, this isn't just from Afghanistan, this go back to Bosian time frame to now. 15 years working in and around USAID and DoS. Yes DoS and USAID have some great people. Just like you any work place, with the good you have the bad. Yes CA typically can do a good job at village level, but even CA suck becasue most don't know civil affairs in or on the nation-building mission sets.
We have been here for ten years. How many studies have been done? Why did this unit do good in this providence or why did the IED for this 12 months go down and now this unit is here and there up 30%? Between Army Call and UMSC MCCLL, where are the reports? Yes dig in the maze of their centers web site. Between each Command coming into country changing the game plan, no wonder Asfghanistan is ready. I really don't think that if we did have a solid game plan it would be different. Most of the problems are with teh Afghans themselves and not really NATO-ISAF or SOF. even if it was set up for success, they would break it up months after NATO-ISAF pulled out. It's in their nature, mind set!!
Richard ... Buck Rogers would be fired within the first month on the job as a General!!! :D
I seriously doubt if Afghan's security would be ready in 2525 if Buck Rogers was the theater CINC.
Richard :munchin
We can do that?
Sweeeeeeeet....
ZonieDiver
11-05-2012, 21:10
What do you think about going to the root of the problem. Cut of financianl aid to the pakis. Take out hteir nukes then let india with US air support kick the shit out of pakistan so they can turn it into a part of their country.
Next bomb the shit out of Iran just like Regan used to do until they quit supporting the TB
I know out current politicans on both parties dont have the balls to do this but what do you think of the plan. After all the real success in COIN is to cut their support and we all know where that comes from but the US govt doesnt have the balls to admit it for some reason.
1) I'm not sure how we 'take out their nukes' so easily, without any 'spillover'.
2) I'm not sure how others might view the India v. Pakistan dust-up.
3) Don Regan????
4) If Ronald Reagan...when the hell did he bomb Iran?
Just asking...
What do you think about going to the root of the problem. Cut of financianl aid to the pakis. Take out hteir nukes then let india with US air support kick the shit out of pakistan so they can turn it into a part of their country.
Next bomb the shit out of Iran just like Regan used to do until they quit supporting the TB
I know out current politicans on both parties dont have the balls to do this but what do you think of the plan. After all the real success in COIN is to cut their support and we all know where that comes from but the US govt doesnt have the balls to admit it for some reason.
Cutting financianl aid to the pakis would help, but I foresee that's to late. Take their Nukes.. you're crazy.. No way, Not happening. US sucks at Aid to countries is all I'll say.
The whole PK VS India would cause way to many issues for the world now.
Iran influence in Afghanistan doesn't need a Nuke. They have little effect here really..IMO. How many shias are here?? Okay lets relook that statement now.
So what you are saying is we cant kill our way to success in a COIN. ;) So why do we have a shit load of conventionl troops there again?
I think myself, and thousands of others have been saying this for years. I really feel that no one understood Gen McChrystal Afghan concept of COIN. There is a good RAND Counterinsurgency Study that draws on other reports in the PDF that examining 89 modern COIN ops in various countries. Shooting people in the face doesn’t work IMO is the BLUF message in COIN. Just like Commands think targeting IED cells is the way to reduce IED threats around a Firebase.
As far as the PK vs India thing.. this is my take.. off topic but I do feel their relationship is critial to Afghanistan.
The relationship between India, Pakistan, USA, UK , Russian and China are some of the strangest ones going on for the last couple of decades. Ever since the partition of the Britain sub-continent was dismantled in 1947, India and Pakistan have been arch rivals. From the disputed kashmir line to the Intel services for both countries playing their games with each other and different partners. You can go back and look at the war between India and Pakistan in 1999 and how close we came to a nuclear war, it may have been small, but it was very close and a NUCLEAR WAR. Which lead to General Pervez Musharraf led a military coup in Pakistan. Pakistan have always claimed that the forces in Kashmir were "freedom fighters" fighting for the liberation of Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir. Typically BS, just as the ISI created the LET which has done so many of the different attack within India itself. So if anyone thinks they can just walk into your house and take your TVs from every room in your house. Then come again brother because you’re crazy or you need to let those ovaries drop and become balls again. That is what your stating, international community calling for removal of Nukes from a country, even just the USA or UK or Both. Hell, look at what has been going on with Iran for the last, what TEN YEARS!! Yeah that’s worked well. Most people don’t know that India had detonated its first nuclear device in 1974, not 1994 or 1998. Pakistan said it had acquired the scientific know-how to make a nuclear bomb in 1992. SO Lets look here, it took India 24 years to openly test a nuke but only 6 years for Pakistan. Humm?
Controlling the problems of Pakistan and their Insurgency is all tied back to the ISI and PAKMIL. Which you can NEVER reove them from the equation. Not anytime soon, nor soon enough.
I think myself, and thousands of others have been saying this for years. I really feel that no one understood Gen McChrystal Afghan concept of COIN. There is a good RAND Counterinsurgency Study that draws on other reports in the PDF that examining 89 modern COIN ops in various countries. Shooting people in the face doesn’t work IMO is the BLUF message in COIN. Just like Commands think targeting IED cells is the way to reduce IED threats around a Firebase.
You talking about this one?
You talking about this one?
RGR.. I think their a good read. No way the answer, but a probable solutions. BUt food for throught(s).
Thanks for the post of it.
Counterinsurgency in Iraq 2003-2006 - Bruce R. Pirnie & Edward O’Connell ( Rand, 2006);
I dont think the conventional military has ever quite understood COIN and that SOF has lost their way in their way to COIN. The principals have been there for years yet the US never seems to be able to see the forest for the trees with COIN. It amazes me that we think we can make A-stan a single country. IMHO the brits carved up that area so they never would have unity ie India vs Pakistan vs A-stan. Iraq vs Iran etc etc. To think we can fix that is a fantasy and some type of non centrilized govt based on tribal rule would be the best bet for stability in that region. Plese forgive my sarcasm in making my point.
You maybe right about the old British Empire here. I too think that Astan can only have a centeral goverment that is only worried about things is maybe Kabul, Kandahar, Herat, Mes and possibly Jbad. Outside of major cities, no "centeral Goverment" will ever work here.
The Taliban will become something in this countries future, just as will all the other "elements" with three and four letter acronyms. Behind the scene talks with taliban have been going on for over a year now.
As far as the Conventional Army, I think the U.S. Military knows what to do on paper as far as COIN. But once they get on the ground things change. Case studies need to be done between the successful stories and the ones that didn't do well in the same area(s).