Sdiver
08-22-2012, 19:40
These guys have correctly predicted EVERY presidential election since 1980.
I'll bet Dusty will have a smile on his face from ear to ear after reading these. I know I do. ;)
University of Colorado model predicts Romney win in November
By Valerie Richardson - The Washington Times
August 22, 2012, 07:13PM
DENVER — A University of Colorado economic model that has correctly predicted the last eight presidential elections shows Mitt Romney emerging as the victor in 2012.
Ken Bickers, professor of political science at the University of Colorado Boulder, and Michael Berry, political science professor at the University of Colorado Denver, announced Wednesday that their state-by-state analysis shows the Republican capturing a majority of electoral votes.
"Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble," said Mr. Bickers, who also serves as director of the CU in DC Internship Program.
The results show President Obama winning 218 votes in the Electoral College, well short of the 270 required for victory. While the study focuses on the electoral vote, the professors also predict that Mr. Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Mr. Obama's 47.1 percent when considering only the two major political parties.
The analysis factors in a host of economic data, including state and national unemployment figures and changes in real per capita income.
"What is striking about our state-level economic indicator forecast is the expectation that Obama will lose almost all of the states currently considered as swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida,” Mr. Bickers said.
While noneconomic factors such as incumbency can play a role in the election's outcome, the professors found that there was no statistical advantage conferred by the location of the party's national convention, the home state of the vice-presidential candidate, or the party affiliation of state governors.
The silver lining for the Obama campaign is that the data was collected five months before the election; the professors say they plan to update their forecast in September, which should provide a more accurate picture. They also note that dead-heat states have been known to fall in unexpected directions.
"As scholars and pundits well know, each election has unique elements that could lead one or more states to behave in ways in a particular election that the model is unable to correctly predict,” Mr. Berry said.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/inside-politics/2012/aug/22/university-colorado-predicts-romney-win-november/
and ......
Colo. Professors Predict Romney Presidency
Program Has Correctly Forecast Every Winner Of The Electoral Since 1980
DENVER -- Two University of Colorado professors have devised a model to predict who will win the presidential election under current economic circumstances. The victor, they say, will be Republican Mitt Romney.
The model uses economic indicators from all 50 states to predict the race's outcome. The forecast calls for Romney to win 320 electoral votes out of 538. It says Romney will also win virtually every state currently considered a swing state, including Colorado.
The professors who created the model, Ken Bickers from CU-Boulder and Michael Berry from CU-Denver, say it correctly forecast every winner of the electoral since 1980.
They warn the model does not account for sudden changes in the economy or unexpected developments in states split 50-50. Polls in many states, including Colorado, show a virtually deadlocked race.
http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/31375716/detail.html
I'll bet Dusty will have a smile on his face from ear to ear after reading these. I know I do. ;)
University of Colorado model predicts Romney win in November
By Valerie Richardson - The Washington Times
August 22, 2012, 07:13PM
DENVER — A University of Colorado economic model that has correctly predicted the last eight presidential elections shows Mitt Romney emerging as the victor in 2012.
Ken Bickers, professor of political science at the University of Colorado Boulder, and Michael Berry, political science professor at the University of Colorado Denver, announced Wednesday that their state-by-state analysis shows the Republican capturing a majority of electoral votes.
"Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble," said Mr. Bickers, who also serves as director of the CU in DC Internship Program.
The results show President Obama winning 218 votes in the Electoral College, well short of the 270 required for victory. While the study focuses on the electoral vote, the professors also predict that Mr. Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Mr. Obama's 47.1 percent when considering only the two major political parties.
The analysis factors in a host of economic data, including state and national unemployment figures and changes in real per capita income.
"What is striking about our state-level economic indicator forecast is the expectation that Obama will lose almost all of the states currently considered as swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida,” Mr. Bickers said.
While noneconomic factors such as incumbency can play a role in the election's outcome, the professors found that there was no statistical advantage conferred by the location of the party's national convention, the home state of the vice-presidential candidate, or the party affiliation of state governors.
The silver lining for the Obama campaign is that the data was collected five months before the election; the professors say they plan to update their forecast in September, which should provide a more accurate picture. They also note that dead-heat states have been known to fall in unexpected directions.
"As scholars and pundits well know, each election has unique elements that could lead one or more states to behave in ways in a particular election that the model is unable to correctly predict,” Mr. Berry said.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/inside-politics/2012/aug/22/university-colorado-predicts-romney-win-november/
and ......
Colo. Professors Predict Romney Presidency
Program Has Correctly Forecast Every Winner Of The Electoral Since 1980
DENVER -- Two University of Colorado professors have devised a model to predict who will win the presidential election under current economic circumstances. The victor, they say, will be Republican Mitt Romney.
The model uses economic indicators from all 50 states to predict the race's outcome. The forecast calls for Romney to win 320 electoral votes out of 538. It says Romney will also win virtually every state currently considered a swing state, including Colorado.
The professors who created the model, Ken Bickers from CU-Boulder and Michael Berry from CU-Denver, say it correctly forecast every winner of the electoral since 1980.
They warn the model does not account for sudden changes in the economy or unexpected developments in states split 50-50. Polls in many states, including Colorado, show a virtually deadlocked race.
http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/31375716/detail.html