View Full Version : Is Mexico Suffering an Insurgency?
This was a topic at work last week and the RAND study (http://www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/OP325.html) was repeatedly cited
Pretty dry but overall, the study doesn't say one way or another IF the scholars believe whether the violence of the Transnational Criminal Orgs represent an insurgency.
There are several press articles that argue that Calderon's admin is focusing on the Zetas but actually leaving the Sinolas alone. Sure does seem like a huge mess!
South of the border, being in a state of insurgency is the norm.
Baht Dog
11-08-2011, 17:31
Not necessarily a classic political insurgency - yet. But classic markers of insurgent activity are evident. It requires thinking outside the normal box of political analysis.
While Mexico may not be undergoing an all out political insurgency, it is important to remember that it is not being touted a political insurgency in the classic sense.
The criminal insurgency in Mexico definitely contains the elements of initial stages of classic insurgency however. No matter what RAND’s sometimes conflicting opinion may be - and they appear to ride the fence at the moment for who knows what political reasons, they are not the definitive word on any subject matter but simply another source of opinion.
The debate is often contentious regarding the situation in Mexico but one thing that is not debatable is Mexico’s situation has deteriorated with violence approaching or exceeding some of the main theaters and AO’s of operation the US is currently engaged in. Mexico is labeled the "Kidnapping Capital of The World" now. Typically it is Mexican's kidnapping other Mexicans, businessmen etc.
The oft touted number of “40,000 murders have occurred in the drug war since 2006” is being increasingly considered as vastly under-reported by at least 10,000.
In 2006 President Caldron stated that the Drug cartels were trying to take over the country – by every measure signs of "insurgent" activity.
Since then more than 250,000 civilians have been displaced in Mexico due to the situation - by every measure a result of insurgent-type activity and something not seen in Mexico in recent memory.
In 2010 President Caldron stated that the Cartels were “trying to take over or replace the government” – this is the language of a government facing an insurgent threat.
The Cartels run virtual shadow or parallel government in some areas and the theft and control of Petroleum by Cartels and gangs is in the hundreds of millions of dollars and helps fund much of what they do. This is vastly under-reported in the story and Saga of today's Mexico.
Infiltration into Mexican government is heavy. This is a deliberate strategy by Cartels to gain even greater political control. It is estimated that as much as a third of the AFI, Mexican Federal Investigations are believed to be corrupted and even working for Cartels. This does not even count the myriad of local police and other agencies. Entire police forces have been found to be simply part of Cartels in some towns.
“Let’s talk about 40 percent of the national territory where the State no longer governs, a 40 percent that is slowly spreading.”
–retired Mexican Major General Luis Garfias Magaña, in the news magazine Proceso, May 5, 2011.
The Mexican government “has lost territorial control, and, in sum, governability…in more than 50″ percent of Mexico’s land area.
–Jorge Carrillo Olea, founder of Mexico’s lead civilian intelligence agency, to EFE news service on August 28, 2011.
The demeanor and language of Cartels is increasingly paramilitary with use of nearly full combat load infantry weaponry and tactics to include many military weapons smuggled in from what’s left over of the 35 year Guatemala civil war and other global arms trafficking sources. This far exceeds the norm and profile associated with "gang activity".
Increasingly narco banners and blog messages such as; "We are the armed wing of the people, and for the people," & "We are anonymous warriors, faceless, but proudly Mexican."
No, it is not entirely a classic political insurgency occurring in Mexico. But it is a hyper-violent Narco-Criminal insurgency that is destabilizing the fabric of society and posing increasing risk to the USA.
I predict that America will largely continue to try to ignore it as much as possible until we enter a reactionary mode at some point in the future. I have doubts about the sincerity of the Mexican government to stop it despite putting on a good show. The narco trade brings tens of billions into the Mexican economy. And obviously our current government is not blameless what with the various Fast and Furious debacles and nefarious agendas.
http://www.themonitor.com/articles/escobares-56422-swat-teams.html
MK262MOD1
11-09-2011, 12:16
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greenberetTFS
11-09-2011, 14:02
Mexico is so FU regarding going after the drug lords it's really a joke.........:rolleyes::eek::p
Big Teddy :munchin
mark46th
11-10-2011, 17:51
I personally think the narcotraficantes have infiltrated all levels of the Mexican Government and Military. They are the de facto government of Mexico...
I personally think the narcotraficantes have infiltrated all levels of the Mexican Government and Military. They are the de facto government of Mexico...
It's not just Mexico. Here's the unclas version of a sub-topic portion of a paper - THE 21ST TAACOM’S POLITICAL-MILITARY ENVIRONMENT - our office in the 21st TAACOM presented to USACAPOC in Feb 1993.
(Slide 11) NARCOTICS
And then there is the problem of narcotics, a problem we’re all aware of and one that we will only mention here briefly. Of concern to our operations are the high crime patterns that are associated with drugs—theft, especially of items that are easily converted to cash money; crimes of violence; an undermining of legitimate government and law enforcement agencies; and a burgeoning threat to both national governments and entire societies—narcoterrorism. The allure and power of drugs is a growing problem, and the monetary and physical pressures the drug-producing and trafficking groups can bring to bear on governments, societies, and security agencies is, indeed, formidable.
Drugs contribute to a whole range of social problems that needlessly drain shrinking national resources. According to the results of a recent EC commission, over 50 percent of the crimes now committed in Europe are drug-related. In France, approximately 86 percent of all crimes committed in 1990 were drug-related, and the problem is growing. It is now estimated that Europe receives about 60 tons of illegal drugs annually. European anti-crime forces claim that the powerful drug lords are now viewing Europe as their main target for their illegal trade because American law enforcement and customs agencies have become—for the time being--increasingly effective in hampering major distribution routes into the United States. European security forces are now seeking American help to combat the growing drug problems in Europe. There are now American Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) offices in Germany, France, Great Britain, Italy, and Spain, and agents serving in an advisory capacity are attached to most embassy and consular staffs. Russian anti-drug agents are now attending seminars in America to help them in their efforts to stem the growing tide of drug-related problems in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) that has replaced the former Soviet Union. Drug related deaths annually number in the tens of thousands in Europe. Drug related deaths in Germany, for example, have doubled in just the past year, and French President Francois Mitterand recently stated that the largest drug lords now wield power equaling that of many nation states. For a Europe now undergoing a period of such dramatic social, political, and economic changes, the threat of narcoterrorism to undermine governmental authority and terrorize citizens, organizations, and societies is an alarming and growing threat to our allies on whom we depend for so much support, to our forces based overseas, and to our ability to execute our wartime plans and missions.
I fear the influence of the narcoterrorists reach even deeper than they did then...and not just in Mexico or the Americas. :eek:
And so it goes...
Richard :munchin
I fear the influence of the narcoterrorists reach even deeper than they did then...and not just in Mexico or the Americas. :eek:
Don't forget that at least a couple US banks have been caught red handed laundering and financing the Drug Cartels...
Wachovia admitted it didn’t do enough to spot illicit funds in handling $378.4 billion for Mexican-currency-exchange houses from 2004 to 2007. That’s the largest violation of the Bank Secrecy Act, an anti-money-laundering law, in U.S. history -- a sum equal to one-third of Mexico’s current gross domestic product.
“Wachovia’s blatant disregard for our banking laws gave international cocaine cartels a virtual carte blanche to finance their operations,” says Jeffrey Sloman, the federal prosecutor who handled the case.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-29/banks-financing-mexico-s-drug-cartels-admitted-in-wells-fargo-s-u-s-deal.html
I personally think the narcotraficantes have infiltrated all levels of the Mexican Government and Military. They are the de facto government of Mexico...
That should make for an interesting election next year. There is alot of speculation that Calderon is influenced by the Sinoloa's, hence his relentless pressure on the Zetas.
Don't forget that at least a couple US banks have been caught red handed laundering and financing the Drug Cartels...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-29/banks-financing-mexico-s-drug-cartels-admitted-in-wells-fargo-s-u-s-deal.html
And they aren't the only ones: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/06/us-banking-hsbc-idUSTRE7451Z120110506
The Justice Department's money-laundering probe against banking giant HSBC Holdings Plc is looking at possible prosecution of individual bankers...
...The Justice Department probe is linked to bulk cash the bank received from money-changing firms in Mexico, the source said. The concern is that the bank may have handled money belonging to the Mexican drug cartels.
...The Justice Department was heavily criticized last August after reaching a deal to allow Barclays Bank to settle charges that it violated U.S. sanctions laws by forfeiting $298 million. While the federal judge overseeing the case ultimately approved the pact, he first dubbed it a "sweetheart deal" and questioned why the bank officials responsible were not held to account.
CombatMuffin
11-11-2011, 15:47
Mexican Interior Minister(more or less the equivalent of the U.S. Vice President), Mr. Francisco Blake Mora, was killed today in a helicopter crash. Sources: CNN (http://us.cnn.com/2011/11/11/world/americas/mexico-minister-killed/index.html?hpt=hp_t1) and FoxNews (http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/11/11/face-mexicos-drug-war-dies-in-chopper-crash/)
Something tells me it wasn't an accident, just like Muriño's death in 2008 due to turbulence was not a pilot's mistake.
I wanted to place this information on this precise thread, because it caught my eye. Baht Dog mentioned Mexico is undergoing the steps towards an insurgency, albeit not in the classic sense. I cannot possibly agree more with him.
How does one fight an insurgency like this one? The citizens of Mexico are doing nothing but swalloing the entire crisis at hand. The government's entire infrastructure is penetrated with corruption. Mexican Congress does nothing to support legislation that will help secure the country's struggle against this huge threat. What's worse, due to political interests and good old pride, the Mexican government is unwilling to admit foreign help (Sure, there's the Plan Merida, but its too limited).
Perhaps someone who knows about this could enlighten me: Does anyone see this escalating to the point of terrorism, instead of just organized crime? How does one fight a threat like this?
Overpaid (Gi normously) waste of tax dollars. Common sense should actually have a say if we want to succeed.
I like the old school doctrine which was simpler (maybe because I'm not that smart) of 3 phases of an insurgency.
1. Latent or incipient phase (LOL, I had to have a CPT explain this to me and he did it well. "Like cancer in its early phase, it's there, it's spreading but you don't know it yet."
2. Acts of Terrorism, assasination, bombings, intimidation etc.
3. War of Movement.
Myself, I would say War of movement. I spent alot of years in LATAM, but never Mexico, so I recuse myself from further comment.
I hear the mission analysis briefing might have been at a Lowes parking lot 0500.
Feds: Mexican cartel plotted attack against US
By KAREN HAWKINS
Miami Herald - Associated Press
Posted on Friday, 11.11.11
http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/11/11/2497939/feds-mexican-cartel-plotted-attack.html
CHICAGO -- The leaders of a powerful Mexican cartel, frustrated that U.S. law enforcement was interfering with their lucrative drug business, plotted a military-style attack on a U.S. or Mexican government building to "send the gringos a message," federal prosecutors allege in documents filed this week.
Leaders of the Sinaloa cartel sought dozens of American-made weapons for an attack in Mexico City on possible targets that included government buildings, an embassy or consulate or media outlet, according to documents in the case against Vicente Zambada, an alleged top lieutenant in the cartel.
Zambada is in jail in Chicago awaiting trial, one of dozens of defendants charged in the city as part of a sweeping international investigation. He has pleaded not guilty to charges that he conspired to import and sell large amounts of cocaine and heroin in the United States, including Chicago.
Authorities say his father, Ismael Zambada, runs the cartel along with Mexico's most wanted man, Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman. There's nothing in the documents to indicate the plot was carried out.
Vicente Zambada's lawyers claim he and other cartel leaders were granted immunity by U.S. agents - and carte blanche to smuggle cocaine over the border - in exchange for intelligence about rival cartels engaged in bloody turf wars in Mexico. Prosecutors have denied that such an agreement exists.
But deals with key players in the cartel have allowed prosecutors to chip away at its operations. Pedro and Margarito Flores, twin brothers who bought and distributed drugs from the cartel in Chicago, are among those cooperating with the government.
Margarito Flores has alleged that the plot to attack a government or media building was hatched during a 2008 meeting at a mountaintop compound in Mexico. Cartel leaders, upset about the recent arrest of Ismael Zambada's brother, griped that the Mexican government was allowing American law enforcement to "do whatever they want," Flores has told prosecutors.
When Guzman asked what leaders were going to do about the problem, Ismael Zambada allegedly responded, "It will be good to send the gringos a message. Whatever we do, we have to do it in someone else's territory," according to a 63-page proffer filed Thursday in which prosecutors summarize their evidence against Vicente Zambada and the cartel.
During the conversation, the documents say, Guzman suggests they target a Mexican or American government building in Mexico City. Vicente Zambada then turns to Margarito Flores and tells him to find a U.S. soldier returning from overseas to give him 20-30 "big powerful weapons," specifying that they be American-made. During a later recorded phone conversation, prosecutors say, Vicente Zambada reiterates with Flores that the cartel will buy the weapons.
Prosecutors also laid out in the proffer how the cartel has smuggled tons of cocaine and kilograms of heroin into the United States over land, sea and air over the years.
Members of the cartel have allegedly evaded arrest by means including the bribing of public officials and law enforcement and carrying out brazen acts of violence - including killing officers who wouldn't accept bribes.
The elusive billionaire Guzman escaped from a Mexican prison in a laundry truck in 2001.
Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/11/11/2497939/feds-mexican-cartel-plotted-attack.html#ixzz1dhH62qBZ