Sept. 9 Poll

[Roguish Lawyer]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A9060-2004Sep9.html?referrer=email

Bush Gains Solid Lead, Poll Shows
President Strengthens Position on Key Campaign Issues

By Richard Morin and Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, September 9, 2004; 5:09 PM

President Bush emerged from his New York convention with a solid lead over Democratic challenger John F. Kerry, strengthening his position on virtually every important issue in the campaign and opening up a clear advantage over his rival on many of the personal characteristics that influence voters in presidential elections, according to a Washington Post-ABC News Poll.

For the first time in the campaign, a majority of likely voters now say they plan to vote for Bush. Among those most likely to vote in November, Bush holds a 52 percent to 43 percent lead over Kerry, with independent Ralph Nader receiving 2 percent of the hypothetical vote. Among all registered voters, Bush leads Kerry 50 percent to 44 percent.

A smaller sample in 19 battleground states, where strategists believe the election will be decided, Bush holds a narrower lead among likely voters, 50 percent to 46 percent. Among all voters, the two candidates are running even, suggesting that voter turnout again will be the key to victory in November.

The survey highlights the damage to Kerry during the month of August and the Republican convention. Bush got a 4-point "bounce" up in support among likely voters from his convention, about what Kerry received from his convention in July. But in other important ways, the poll suggests that Republicans achieved virtually all their objectives last week in New York, particularly in their goal of making Kerry less acceptable to voters.

What won't be known for another few weeks is whether Bush's gains are transitory, as Kerry's were in the immediate aftermath of his convention. The setback to Kerry has generated concern among Democrats about the state of his candidacy, but four years ago, Bush trailed then vice president Al Gore by 8 points and later 10 points in tracking polls taken by the Gallup Organization in mid-September 2000 and came back to win the election.

In the five weeks since the Democratic convention, Kerry's favorability rating has plunged, after attacks on his Vietnam service from a group of anti-Kerry Vietnam veterans, self-inflicted wounds by the candidate over Iraq and a relentless pounding from Republicans. Kerry's favorable rating fell from 51 percent at the beginning of August to just 36 percent in the latest Post-ABC News poll, while his unfavorable rating rose from 32 percent to 42 percent.

Bush's favorable rating rose slightly to 51 percent and his overall approval rating rose another notch to 52 percent. An identical percentage said Bush deserves a second term. Strategists in both campaigns have watched Bush's approval rating closely through the year as an indicator of his reelection prospects. That rating fell below 50 percent in May and has been inching its way back up over the summer. History suggests that Bush will be formidable in November if his approval rating remains in the low-50s, vulnerable if he is in the 40s.

The poll suggests that Bush and the Republicans successfully, but perhaps only temporarily, altered the issues agenda in the past 10 days, shifting public attention away from the economy, where voters have generally given Bush negative marks, to terrorism, where the president has always been stronger.

[The Reaper]

Excellent info from Dick Morris, who should know something about elections.

TR

http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/opedcolumnists/19281.htm

BEYOND THE BUSH BOUNCE

BY DICK MORRIS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

September 9, 2004 -- PRESIDENT Bush enters Sep tember with a remarkable double-digit lead as a result of one of the most successful conventions in recent years. The key to the GOP success was, of course, its focus on terrorism, reminding Americans what a dangerous world we inhabit. The Republicans also moved to the center, featuring pro-choice and socially moderate orators like Rudy Giuliani, Sen. Zell Miller and Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.
The Democrats don't understand the need to move to the center. Bob Shrum, Kerry's — and Ted Kennedy's — key strategist, makes his living by appealing to the party's base. The addition of James Carville and Paul Begala to the team just reinforces the tendency to tack to the left, embracing an economic populism that resonates with 40 percent of the voters but leaves the rest cold.

After all, when Clinton needed to win 43 percent of the vote to get elected in 1992 against Bush, as Ross Perot split the Republican vote, he relied on Carville and Begala. But when he needed to win half the voters in the 1996 campaign, as Perot's appeal diminished, they were nowhere to be seen.

Carville and Begala will likely focus on "the economy, stupid," which is a needed correction for Kerry — whose current strategy of trying to beat Bush on terrorism brings to mind Winston Churchill's characterization of fighting a land war in Asia against Japan in World War II: "Going into the water to fight the shark."

But in its focus on the economy, the Kerry team is likely to lose sight of one basic problem: In running against a bad economy, it is helpful if the economy is bad. With an unemployment rate approaching 5 percent, they'll have a hard time making the case.

The decision to bring in Carville and Begala also begs a more fundamental question: Do they want Kerry to win?

Both men are primarily loyal to the Clintons — Bill and Hillary. Clearly, the former president would like the former first lady to be president in 2008. And a Kerry victory would stand in the way.



An axiom of politics is that generally you want your campaign advisers to hope that you win — and Carville and Begala may not pass that standard.

Bush's post convention bounce is likely to linger until the debates. He will get another boost this weekend as we mark the anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, reminding Americans, once more, how important it is to keep Bush at the helm.

How big is Bush's lead? Don't believe the surveys that show it in the 5- to 7-point range. Believe the surveys of Time and Newsweek, which show a lead in excess of 10 points.

The difference is because pollsters disagree about whether or not to weight their results to keep constant the ratio of Republicans, Democrats and Independents in their sample. Some polling firms treat party affiliation as a demographic constant and, when they find that their sample has too many Republicans, they weight down each Republican interview and assign an extra weight to each Democratic response.

But other polling firms — and I — disagree. We feel that political party is not a demographic, like gender or race or age. If the survey finds more Republicans than usual, we think it's because the country has become more Republican, so we treat the result as a indicator of national mood, not of statistical error.

Time and Newsweek both picked up major moves toward the GOP in the wake of the convention. Likely the other firms did too, but they treated the finding as a mistake and weighed down the Republican interviews, making the race appear to be closer than it really is.

The debates are likely to help Bush, since Kerry's supporters are so divided on the war and on terrorism. Almost whatever Kerry says is likely to lose him a share of his voters. For example, 37 percent of his supporters told the Rasmussen Poll that they want America to give priority to making democracy work in Iraq, while 54 percent want Kerry to emphasize troop withdrawal. So when Kerry said Monday that he'd prioritize bringing the troops home, his comments appealed to the majority of his voters but alienated more than a third of them. The debates are fraught with such traps.

So look for September to be a good Bush month. But, in October, Kerry will close at least part of the gap. Democrats always do.

[echoes]

"September 9, 2004 -- PRESIDENT Bush enters Sep tember with a remarkable double-digit lead as a result of one of the most successful conventions in recent years."


So true TR!!
AND...Incredible nights of blackjack--cardplaying Bush Style! Yes, I believe "The Man" has style!

Holly :o

[Solid]

So there was a bounce, or did they just convert Dems to Reps?

Thank you, I am genuinely clueless.

Goodnight!

Solid

[The Reaper]

So there was a bounce, or did they just convert Dems to Reps?

Thank you, I am genuinely clueless.

Goodnight!

Solid

I believe there is a bounce in the 6-8 point range.

A couple of polls have to be dead wrong, could be for a variety of reasons. Zogby does the WSJ poll, but trends Dem. Rasmussen seems conservative, but has the worst numbers for the Pres. Something is definitely afoot.

If I were a betting man, I would pick the POTUS to win the election and take a five point popular victory as well.

TR

[Sacamuelas]

I would pick the POTUS to win the election and take a five point popular victory as well.
TR

Alright then ... go ahead and start aging the beef, I will place an order with my "Nectar of the Gods" man to ensure that he has enough Booker's on hand when I goto purchase it for the trip. LOL Oh yeah, send me the mapquest link for directions and the challenge phrase-password/secret handshake so that I am not shot at your front door. :D LOL

I agree, POTUS by 4-6% popular. Electoral = "Just WIN baby!"

[Bravo1-3]

I'd like to know how each is doing by state (electoral stats) rather than just pop demographics. Kerry is going to win Washington State barring some miracle. Oregon is still up in the air, and with the Sec States latest antics, a lot of people are seeing the local DNC for what it really is. Oregon could actually go GOP this year.

It's electoral votes that count, is there a source of info for candidates "by state"?

[rubberneck]

I am not Dick Morris but i'll throw my two cents in. I believe strongly that Bush is going to win in a landslide both in popular vote and in the electoral college. Elections featuring an imcumbent tend to be a referendum on their performance and much less a contest of ideas between two parties.

The first thing the electorate does is decide if they want to retain the incumbent. If they do want to retain the incumbent than the challenger historically loses ground consistnatly until they get utterly blown out (Reagan v Mondale, Clinton V Dole). If the electorate feels the need for change you see the incumbent slowly bleed out much like Bush Senior did in 92. Polls going back to the beginning of August show the incumbent slowly gaining on and then surpassing the challenger to the point he has a sizeable lead. Even more worry some for the Kerry camp is how poorly he is doing on personality issues. A closer look at the Washington Post poll shows:

Issues Bush-Kerry Difference 9/8 Difference 8/29 Difference 8/1
Clear Stand 56-29% Bush +27 N/A N/A
Strong Leader 58-31 Bush +27 Bush +15 Bush +6
Appealing Personality 53-31 Bush +22 N/A N/A
Make Country Safer 54-35 Bush +19 Bush +13 Bush +3
Honest 48-35 Bush +13 Bush +6 Kerry +6

It seems to me that the public has decided that they are much more comfortable with Bush than they are with Kerry. Despite a much narrower gap on specific policy positions there isn't much of a race here. Come election day when people are in the solitude of the voting booth they are going to pick the devil they know over the devil they don't. Expect a large turnout from the registered Republicans, a poor showing from minorities and democrats and a fairly sizeable advantage for Bush among independents. If Kerry is indeed polling in the high 20's or low 30's on leadership, honesty, personality and security it tells you even the moderate democrats aren't thrilled with him. Conversly with Bush polling above 50% it tells you that he engenders the trust of independents or Reagan Democrats. Either way it doesn't look very good for Kerry.

As a side note a recent poll here in Jersey has the President trailing Kerry by a mere 4%. Jersey less than a month ago, when Kerry was up 20% was a virtual lock, now it is wide open. This means that Kerry has to spend money here which means that he can't spend it in Fl, Mo, Pa, Mi, Oh, Wi, Mn, NM..... As a matter of fact the President has consolidated gains in many swing state and now Kerry must choose between having to defend a sure thing like New Jersey or to spend money in a swing state he desperately needs. Bush on the other hand doesn't have to defend a state that went solidly for him in '00.

[echoes]

I'd like to know how each is doing by state (electoral stats) rather than just pop demographics.

Sir, though the electoral vote escapes me, the Bush camp in Oklahoma is so sure a victory, that we have NO yard signs or stickers to get at the Republican headquarters. Honestly! They told us to go to the internet, and buy them if we wanted them. Go figure huh. :)

Holly

[Bravo1-3]

As an afterthought:

NOT ONE SHRED OF GOOD CAN COME OUT OF THE DEBATES FOR KERRY.

Anything he says on Subject "A" today will be thrown back in his face starting about 5 minutes after the debate for his contrary position the week/month/hour before. He may win on "snap", but he will lose on substance, the GOP will make damn good and sure to point out anything that even looks inconsistant on Kerrys part.

Add to the fact that sooner or latr people are going to figure out this thing is a forgery, and it will land squarely in Kerrys lap.

Look for more gun runs by SBVFT in the very near future.

I'm still sticking to my 12 point win for Bush.

[NousDefionsDoc]

Check this out:

Tracking Polls (http://www.davidwissing.com/gen2004polls3way.php)

[rubberneck]

As an afterthought:

I'm still sticking to my 12 point win for Bush.

12-15% and 290+ electoral votes is what I am expecting. Also despite the cheap shots about the Presidents intelligence he has never lost a debate. What the media can't seem to fathom is that the "plain spoken hick" from Texas can actually relate to 80% of Americans than a swarmy, pseudo-intellectual millionare prick from Mass.

[NousDefionsDoc]

Wonder what the backlash will do for him if those ABC documents turn out to be a Dem forgery?

[rubberneck]

Wonder what the backlash will do for him if those ABC documents turn out to be a Dem forgery?

Not much I expect. It will however destroy the national media in the public opinion polls. Now if we can only hit them in the pocketbook we might start to get a more balanced view of the world.

[Bravo1-3]

LOTS and LOTS of states up for grabs still.

[Solid]

I keep hearing that NC is swing? There's a massive 'NC is Kerry Country' grafitti on our bridge...

Will remove once ropes and paint are aquired.

Solid

[The Reaper]

I keep hearing that NC is swing? There's a massive 'NC is Kerry Country' grafitti on our bridge...

Will remove once ropes and paint are aquired.

Solid

Not by any credible poll I have seen.

You are living in the most liberal part of the state.

Don't remove it, just change Kerry to Bush.

TR

[Solid]

That's what I meant :)

[Airbornelawyer]

I'd like to know how each is doing by state (electoral stats) rather than just pop demographics. Kerry is going to win Washington State barring some miracle. Oregon is still up in the air, and with the Sec States latest antics, a lot of people are seeing the local DNC for what it really is. Oregon could actually go GOP this year.

It's electoral votes that count, is there a source of info for candidates "by state"?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

He keeps track of all the polls, including state polls.

Oregon: a poll conducted 8/26-9/1 by Riley Research Associates of Portland for the Oregonian gave Bush 46% and Kerry 45%, with Nader at 1% and 6% undecided. A Zogby poll conducted on 9/2 had Kerry over Bush 53% to 43%. Which do you think is more reliable? I do find it odd that Zogby thinks its poll is reliable: it was a single day telephone poll on the last day of the Republican convention. If conducted during the day, Democrats are likely overrepresented (you get more students, retirees and unemployed people during the day). If conducted during the evening, many Republicans were likely watching the convention and not answering the phone.

Washington: in three recent polls, 2 have Kerry up by 8, and one has Kerry up by 2.

[rubberneck]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
A Zogby poll conducted on 9/2 had Kerry over Bush 53% to 43%. Which do you think is more reliable? I do find it odd that Zogby thinks its poll is reliable: it was a single day telephone poll on the last day of the Republican convention. If conducted during the day, Democrats are likely overrepresented (you get more students, retirees and unemployed people during the day). If conducted during the evening, many Republicans were likely watching the convention and not answering the phone.

Washington: in three recent polls, 2 have Kerry up by 8, and one has Kerry up by 2.

Take Zogby with a very large grain of salt. He and his brother James who leads the Arab American Institute, have both been very critical of the administartion post 9/11. Since it is very easy to change the outcome of a poll by changing its wording one has to wonder if his personal bias against the President has somehow worked its way into his polling. Since his polls rarely tend to jibe with other polls I am doubtful of their accuracy.


http://www.aaiusa.org/zogby/zogby_home.htm

[The Reaper]

It occurs to me that pollsters who provide clients with bad data, don't keep said clients for very long after they are proven false.

Just my .02, YMMV.

TR

[The Reaper]

Now here is some good polling news from Gallup.

I like the Electoral Map and numbers!

http://www.gallup.com/election2004/showdown/

TR

[Bravo1-3]

That's a lot of electoral votes that Bush could lose. Not to be a pessimist, but right now the election is Bush's to lose.

Bush is ahead by 39 Electoral votes (270 to win) IF he finishes with 271 like last time, Kerry will have 277 for the win. I'm not sure it is mathematically possible for that kind of division to happen, I even doubt it is possible for BOTH candidates to finish with more than 269 votes, but who the hell knows.

I'd love to see Bush continue to hold the lead he has as reflected in the Gallup Poll, but I think it will be closer in the Electoral vote. Some of the polling data shown is a bit dated, and a lot of it is well within the margin of error:

Wisconson polling data is from the last week of August, with 48% Bush, 45% Kerry, and 2% Nader. The Margin is 5%. 3% undecided. Too close to call in my book.

Pennsylvania is 48% / 47% / 0 / 5% with a 5% Margin. Too close to call.

Florida is 48%/ 46% / 2% with a margin of 4%. Not nearly a lock, and dated in the last weeks of August. I hate to say it, but maybe if FEMA doesn't drop the ball, those numbers will change to a wider spread.

In addition, some of the 2000 "Blue States" look like they may change over, if they have not already done so.

This is slightly more current info, and leaves states inside the MoE out of the tally:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/election_2004.htm

[The Reaper]

That's a lot of electoral votes that Bush could lose. Not to be a pessimist, but right now the election is Bush's to lose.

Bush is ahead by 39 Electoral votes (270 to win) IF he finishes with 271 like last time, Kerry will have 277 for the win.

No, if Bush has 270, Kerry will only have 268. There are only 538 EC votes, to my knowledge, not 548.

Concur that the election is Bush's to lose, and I hope he holds his own at the debates. Given Kerry's flip-flopping and refusal to take a consistent position, that shouldn't be too difficult.

OTOH, I have decided certain polls are too biased to use. Zogby comes to mind. My money is on Bush to win.

TR