View Full Version : The Death of Osama Bin Laden Changes Nothing
I wish he were wrong, but agree with his assessment. Time will tell.
It is undoubtedly significant. Osama bin Laden was wildly popular in the Islamic world. In the wake of the 9/11 attacks Osama t-shirts, hats, and even dolls and action figures sold briskly in many Muslim countries, belying the mainstream media myth that 9/11 was the action of a tiny minority of extremists that had twisted and hijacked Islam, and were duly despised by the vast majority of Muslims. Polls all over the Islamic world always showed a healthy amount of support for bin Laden and, above all, respect for him as a pious mujahid.
But in reality, while the death of bin Laden is fine news, and is certainly a psychological blow to the jihadis and a confidence-booster for Americans, it really won't change anything.
Link (http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=43275)
Callsign
05-02-2011, 08:19
I like to think most people understand the symbolic victory and look at is as achieving a goal we set out years ago.
....... but I feel pretty good this morning.
And I'm sure there are a few around the world that are a bit bummed out this morning - which makes me feel even better.
For the next bad guy on our list - the pucker factor just increased a hundred fold - mistakes are made under pressure - and some very, very talented assets are redirecting attention and fire.
:munchinNow's when they'll start poppin' dirty bombs, though.:munchin
The AQ boyz have gotta be ultra-pissed.
dr. mabuse
05-02-2011, 09:07
*
MOO, it does change things.
UBL had resources that many others don't and we still got him.
And hopefully this will stir up the hornets nest so we can bag some more.
Maybe the message is out now that even with Obama in charge, we'll still get you if you're in our cross hairs.
Good hunting.
Bear in mind that the same thing that brought him to prominence, restricted him even more as he grew bigger. Ayman Al-Zawahiri is the brains IMHO, UBL had been the financier and link to the money for quite some time. This is represented by the complete lack of audio tapes from Zawahiri at the beginning and the increase over time in his releases of media. I think that there was a difference of opinion, and they have gone their separate ways to pursue other endeavors. Of course, UBL's is now nullified.
His own courier was his undoing. If he had to resort to a physical means to have and pass information, how effective was he? I think the donors have noticed for some time that UBL was too risky to interact with, and saw it more fitting to find and support people that were more to their liking.
September 11th didn't just change things for us, it changed things for the entire AQ structure. Look at the name itself, The Base. It's an amalgamation of separate groups that are seeking a franchising opportunity, not unlike someone wanting the banner of McD's, but not being full on bought into it. You can get too big and you can lose popular support.
I do agree that this will send a message, but without proper execution of follow-up operations on successors and supporters, this will be forgotten quickly and the initiative will once again slip away.
The message should be clearly stated, they used a woman as a human shield, they were killed in a mansion, not a cave, and that they were met on our terms.
I am a bit happier this morning, but also realize there is much to be done. I hope that my brothers down range are safe and that there will be a cascading effect to this occasion.
Stay vigilant
The UW approach..
The best course of action is for the WH to mention that we had "insider information" as to the location of OBJ. Prior to this announcement, large sums of money are transferred to the bank accounts of #'s 4,6,10 and 21 on the AlQaida listing, and then sit back with some microwave popcorn and watch the fireworks. You don't think AQ isn't in the midst of an internal investigation to see who sold out the Boss?
The numbers above are just random numbers that I picked. probably won't improve my Lottery chances either.
So, it being almost Summer...... Where is this big dreaded Spring Offensive? gonna happen at the same time the Serbs Counter Attack in Bosnia??:rolleyes:
Prior to this announcement, large sums of money are transferred to the bank accounts of #'s 4,6,10 and 21 on the AlQaida listing, and then sit back with some microwave popcorn and watch the fireworks. You don't think AQ isn't in the midst of an internal investigation to see who sold out the Boss?
The numbers above are just random numbers that I picked. probably won't improve my Lottery chances either.
If you want to win the lottery, you've got to use the same numbers used on the show "LOST".
Balian: What is Jerusalem worth?
Saladin: Nothing......Everything
-Kingdom of Heaven
IMO this analogy is equally applicable to ending UBL. The world remains a dangerous place, and we still have Islamist wolves to hunt down, but besides justice, ending UBL, and the circumstances involved resonate on many different levels. Folks might claim he was merely a symbol at this point, how effectively could he lead AQ isolated in a compound with only couriers for contact with the world? However he was their symbol, face of the Islamists, and AQ, and his extended survival was pitched as evidence of the limits of American power. A myth forcefully shattered by our military the other night.
America's enemies all fall into the same trap, they see our relative affluence and view us us a nation of fickle merchants who lack the resolve for armed conflict. Hitler, Tojo, Saddam, UBL, none of them thought the Americans would fight, or if they did it would be with political restrictions as endured by our troops in Korea, Vietnam, Somalia etc. Perhaps our enemies confused recent events with the lessons of history, something the Japanese learned at Tarawa, succinctly put by Marine E.B. Sledge, " There is nothing in the world as savage as an 18 year old American boy."
Included in the fallout are also the shattered myths of UBL as some hardcore, evil, genius. He was certainly evil, but he might still be alive if he was hard enough to stay in a remote cave somewhere guarded by his zealots. His choices reinforce notions he was more of an affluent financier and organizer. The compound location makes sense, with the military academy a block away and a large Pakistani military presence in the city, UBL could have got around for so long travelling in jeeps with his guards in Pakistani uniforms. But what genius would build a massive comfortable house 8 times larger than anything else around if you were the most hunted man in the world? Either way it reflects poorly on the Pakistani ISI, either they knew or they are truly that inept. UBL lived long enough to see the Jasmine revolution in the Islamic world, futher proof his ideology was anachronistic, and in the end he went out knowing America got him, ironically given the value Islamists afford women, he hid behind his wife. This was UBL, an evil, murderous, coward.
There is also Obama, the weakest President in US History, a leader our allies and enemies both mock. Yet to be fair, politics aside, if the base story is sound, he should be commended on a gutsy call. He didn't just order a drone strike, he ordered men across a sovereign border in a high risk operation. Imagine if our troops were ambushed, and both the domestic and international ramifications of failure here. Ironically, Carter who Obama is often compared too, also ordered a daring operation, also with helicopter failures, though unsuccessfully.
The culmination of these events is a message broadcast both loud and clear to the world. The American Century has just begun. We are free, powerful, and determined. If it takes regime change in Iraq, so be it, if we have to fight in the hills of Afghanistan, or order a high risk mission to bring UBL to justice for his crimes against our people nearly a decade after the fact, we are resolved to do so. This was the message demonstrated to both friend and foe, by the circumstances of ending UBL.
The best course of action is for the WH to mention that we had "insider information" as to the location of OBJ. Prior to this announcement, large sums of money are transferred to the bank accounts of #'s 4,6,10 and 21 on the AlQaida listing, and then sit back with some microwave popcorn and watch the fireworks. You don't think AQ isn't in the midst of an internal investigation to see who sold out the Boss?
The numbers above are just random numbers that I picked. probably won't improve my Lottery chances either.
If you want to win the lottery, you've got to use the same numbers used on the show "LOST".
I was thinking the same thing...
4, 8, 15, 16, 23, & 42
The world consistently fails to understand the American psyche, that we're a nation of free people and not to be trifled with, and that although we may have an incredibly long fuse...that there's a BIG bomb attached to the end of it.
OBLs death is a psychological boost for America'a resolve and sense of justice, but it has little to no real impact on the dark, fetid fen of ME politics.
Richard :munchin
Ret10Echo
05-03-2011, 04:53
Seems there was never really any way to "franchise" his jihad... I agree that it appeared he was out of the loop. Heck, the guy had his own prison built to house him.
Osama's death 'a good career move'?
Al-Qaeda's leader might appear to have died with a bang, but he had long since died with a whimper.
Robert Grenier
For Osama bin Laden, violent death must have come as a blessing. It has given him, at least fleetingly, a seeming prominence that in fact had long since ebbed away, not only in the Muslim world, but even within al-Qaeda itself.Consider, then, what it must have been like for such an ego to fade into functional obscurity. As he was reduced to issuing occasional audio tapes of increasing irrelevance, even the core of the organisation he founded learned to live without him. And the scattered little groups around the globe which had appropriated the al-Qaeda name in fact had little connection to bin Laden's organisation, and still less to bin Laden himself.
Link here (http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/05/20115272712668919.html)
incarcerated
05-03-2011, 23:33
" There is nothing in the world as savage as an 18 year old American boy."
Except, sometimes, his sister…
The Death of Osama Bin Laden Changes Nothing
It promoted Ayman al-Zawahiri to the first chair in AQ.
Had we been able to track the curriers through other parts of the organization, map it, and take down elements of the first two or three tiers of the pyramid, financiers, or other high value components, we could have had an impact well beyond the one man, as gratifying as that small score has been. Let’s hope that the hard drives and discs recovered from Abbottabad aren’t just OBL’s porn collection.
Stras, you have an evil mind. :D
TruePatriotVii
05-04-2011, 00:16
I just love how we always put it out on the news the "KEY" to what our operation was. Courier received phone call. Awesome thanks for putting that out there. Sure they may know we have the capability to do it, but don't blab that shit all over the news like Americans are the only ones going to watch it. I really can't stand the media and when stuff like this gets put out over and over again it just puts more strain on those of us that are attempting to piece together the puzzles.
I remember when George Herbert Walker Bush pulled off Desert Storm. At the time, I figured it to be the fight of the century, and I damn near got in a shitload of trouble trying to manipulate my way into it; I let off in time, but a buddy of mine wouldn't let it drop and got burned.
Anyway, I figured it to be Armaggedon. It was a great success. In my mind, Bush 41 could do no wrong, and was up there with Ronnie as a Class-A CinC.
But, what happened? He went back on his "Read my lips" promise, and raised taxes. Boom-he's outta there-winner of Armaggedon or not.
Reasonable people can figure out that, providing the op was legit, Obama had no logical choice other than give the green light to a laydown mission like that; they'll forget about it within 90 days.
If there is a poll bump, it'll be a few points, then it'll cascade next idiotic or nefarious fiscal or ethical move made.
Half the Country still aren't stupid enough to commit National suicide with the current policies in place; not yet.
The Reaper
05-04-2011, 18:46
Are we really sure that the POTUS green-lighted this mission?
Some think otherwise.
http://patdollard.com/2011/05/obama-hesitated-%E2%80%93-panetta-issued-order-to-kill-osama-bin-laden/
Can't wait till defectors from the Obama train start publishing their memoirs.
TR
Are we really sure that the POTUS green-lighted this mission?
Some think otherwise.
Can't wait till defectors from the Obama train start publishing their memoirs.
TR
No, we can't. Good point.
I'm talking perception...
incarcerated
05-05-2011, 23:12
I just love how we always put it out on the news the "KEY" to what our operation was. Courier received phone call. Awesome thanks for putting that out there. Sure they may know we have the capability to do it, but don't blab that shit all over the news like Americans are the only ones going to watch it. I really can't stand the media and when stuff like this gets put out over and over again it just puts more strain on those of us that are attempting to piece together the puzzles.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/cia-spied-on-bin-laden-from-safe-house/2011/05/05/AFXbG31F_story.html
CIA spied on bin Laden from safe house
By Greg Miller, Thursday, May 5, 4:56 PM
The CIA maintained a safe house in the Pakistani city of Abbottabad for a small team of spies who conducted extensive surveillance over a period of months on the compound where Osama bin Laden was killed by U.S. Special Operations forces this week, U.S. officials said.
The secret CIA facility was used as a base of operations for one of the most delicate human intelligence gathering missions in recent CIA history, one that relied on Pakistani informants and other sources to help assemble a “pattern of life” portrait of the occupants and daily activities at the fortified compound where bin Laden was found, the officials said.
The on-the-ground surveillance work was part of an intelligence-gathering push mobilized after the discovery of the suspicious complex last August that involved virtually every category of collection in the U.S. arsenal, ranging from satellite imagery to eavesdropping efforts aimed at recording voices inside the compound.
The effort was so extensive and costly that the CIA went to Congress in December to secure authority to reallocate tens of millions of dollars within assorted agency budgets to fund it, U.S. officials said.
Most of that surveillance capability remained in place until the execution of the raid by U.S. Navy SEALs shortly after 1 a.m. in Pakistan. The agency’s safe house did not play a role in the raid and has since been shut down, in part because of concerns about the safety of CIA assets in the aftermath, but also because the agency’s work was considered finished.
“The CIA’s job was to find and fix,” said a U.S. official, using Special Operations forces terminology for the identification and location of a high-value target. “The intelligence work was as complete as it was going to be, and it was the military’s turn to finish the target.”
The official, like others quoted for this article, spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak for the record. The CIA declined to comment....
U.S. officials said there were also disadvantages for bin Laden in residing in Abbottabad, including the fact that the area is relatively welcoming to outsiders, including Pakistanis on vacation, military families being transferred to bases there, and even U.S. soldiers who have at times been sent to Abbottabad to train Pakistani troops.
“Abbottabad is not a place where Islamic extremists went, because it wasn’t a stronghold,” said the former U.S. intelligence official involved in the bin Laden pursuit. “They preferred places like Peshawar, Quetta or Karachi.” When analysts would consider likely locations for the al-Qaeda chief, the official said, “Abbottabad wouldn’t be on that list.”
The CIA took advantage of that atmosphere to send case officers and recruited informants into Abbottabad undetected, and set up a safe house that functioned as its base.
“That is an Achilles heel for bin Laden, because anybody can go” to Abbottabad, the former CIA official said. “It makes it easier for the CIA to operate.”
U.S. officials declined to say how many case officers or informants used the facility, but they stressed that the effort required extraordinary caution because of the fear that bin Laden and those sheltering him might vanish again if spooked.
The CIA began to focus on the compound last summer after years of painstaking effort to penetrate a small network of couriers with ties to the al-Qaeda leader. Once the most important of those couriers led them to the Abbottabad compound, the conspicuous nature of the complex sent up alarms that it might have been built for bin Laden himself.
“The place was three stories high and you could watch it from a variety of angles,” the former official said. Moving into the custom-made compound, the former official said, “was his biggest mistake.”
TruePatriotVii
05-07-2011, 22:03
Incarcerated,
My point exactly.
incarcerated
05-07-2011, 22:38
Yeah, it’s like they were running some kind of school or something.
greenberetTFS
05-08-2011, 07:09
The WSJ this morning claimed they (the administration will be releasing some films taken during the OBL take down).........:eek: They claim it's because the people want to see it,regardless of how gory the content will be ..........:rolleyes Interesting isn't it?.........;)
Big Teddy :munchin
CIA discovers evidence of unforeseen effects of OBL death on AQ and Taliban operations... :rolleyes:
Richard :munchin
Are we really sure that the POTUS green-lighted this mission?
Some think otherwise.
http://patdollard.com/2011/05/obama-hesitated-%E2%80%93-panetta-issued-order-to-kill-osama-bin-laden/
Can't wait till defectors from the Obama train start publishing their memoirs.
TR
There will always be someone claiming Obama did or did not do something they want or don't want him to do. Check your's bias at the door, however. Love him or hate him, he's still as much president as GW was and is motivated by the same realities. Of course he said Go or it wouldn't have gone, outside second-guessers not withstanding. You all know how the NCA works. So far Obama has stayed the course in Iraq, remained and upgraded Afghanistan, kept Gitmo open, and several other things reality dictated. For that I'm glad; it shows he can recognize truth when he see's it and change his position. He still plays politics and he still isn't who I'll be voting for - mainly due to who he'll bring with him - but he's doing better now than when he first came in. I believe in credit where credits due. I just hope he enjoys his 4 years. You don't have to agree with everything a president does - just support him as President and not undermine him like was done to GW. The jobs hard enough as it is.
incarcerated
06-02-2011, 13:44
There will always be someone claiming Obama did or did not do something they want or don't want him to do. Check your's bias at the door, however.
Not sure where you’re coming from.
The Reaper’s comment was phrased as a question. Can you please explain to me the bias that you suggest he is displaying?
Of course he said Go or it wouldn't have gone, outside second-guessers not withstanding. You all know how the NCA works.
While we may know how the NCA works in general, we know nothing about how this particular instance went down. How is your comment any less second-guessing than the Pat Dollard piece?
So far Obama has stayed the course in Iraq, remained and upgraded Afghanistan….
The current Status of Forces Agreement between Washington and Baghdad stipulates that the remaining 50,000 American troops still in country must be withdrawn by the end of the year. Exactly what course has he stayed in Iraq?
What is he doing to win in Afghanistan?
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2015198014_afghanistan01.html
There will always be someone claiming Obama did or did not do something they want or don't want him to do. Check your's bias at the door, however. Love him or hate him, he's still as much president as GW was and is motivated by the same realities. Of course he said Go or it wouldn't have gone, outside second-guessers not withstanding. You all know how the NCA works. So far Obama has stayed the course in Iraq, remained and upgraded Afghanistan, kept Gitmo open, and several other things reality dictated. For that I'm glad; it shows he can recognize truth when he see's it and change his position. He still plays politics and he still isn't who I'll be voting for - mainly due to who he'll bring with him - but he's doing better now than when he first came in. I believe in credit where credits due. I just hope he enjoys his 4 years. You don't have to agree with everything a president does - just support him as President and not undermine him like was done to GW. The jobs hard enough as it is.With respect, I appreciate how your post highlights the fact that there are continuities from one president to another that belie campaign rhetoric and political posturing. IMO, the current president could have saved himself--and the nation--a lot of heartache had he not sounded the horn of "change" so loudly. The mantra generated unrealistic expectations among his base and additional concerns among his opposition.
MOO, you also raise a valid contrast between the unyielding criticism Bush the Younger received and the ongoing criticism of his successor.
However, I respectfully disagree with your assessment that the current president "is motivated by the same realities" as Bush the Younger. Specifically, the current president, IMO, still does not see the war on terrorism as a war (global or otherwise).
rob99vmi04
06-08-2011, 06:41
I believe in credit where credits due. I just hope he enjoys his 4 years. You don't have to agree with everything a president does - just support him as President and not undermine him like was done to GW. The jobs hard enough as it is.
If I'm going to give him credit for this......I also give him credit for having the worst unemployement and the worst housing market since the Great Depression. The highest gas prices in history, causing more damage to the economy than any single president in history by passing Obamacare, re distributing Americas wealth causing massive economic turmoil through his "stimulus package", highest food costs, highest inflation of the US dollar, highest US debt. The guy is marxists plain an simple, the community organizer has no idea how to run a country, and probably will go down in the histroy books as the worst american president to ever have taken office. I pray that we only have him until 2012.
If I'm going to give him credit for this......I also give him credit for having the worst unemployement and the worst housing market since the Great Depression. The highest gas prices in history, causing more damage to the economy than any single president in history by passing Obamacare, re distributing Americas wealth causing massive economic turmoil through his "stimulus package", highest food costs, highest inflation of the US dollar, highest US debt. The guy is marxists plain an simple, the community organizer has no idea how to run a country, and probably will go down in the histroy books as the worst american president to ever have taken office. I pray that we only have him until 2012.
Your facts are wrong. While food and gas prices are at an all time historical high, unemployment has been higher even in my lifetime, and inflation is actually low. Enemployment in 1982 was 10 percent, and inflation has peaked over 15% around both world wars and the Carter years. Inflation over the past 18 months is a little over 2 percent. O's policies may eventually lead to massive or hyper-inflation, but so far not yet. Debt as a ratio to GDP was higher during WWII than now.
I'm not a fan of POTUS by any means, but if you're going to rant, rant factually. As far as being the WORST president, he may turn out that way.... but we've has some Bad ones over the course of US history.
SFC Donnell
06-28-2011, 19:54
My personal opinion: it changes little but the fact that it took 5 or more weeks for the number two guy to be announced as the new number one AQ dude. Any situation where you disrupt the enemy for 5+ weeks can be considered a victory. The fact that OBL did not die of old age is a victory however small.
Time wounds all heels.