View Full Version : Age of America About to End
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/imf-bombshell-age-of-america-about-to-end-2011-04-25?link=MW_home_latest_news
For the first time, the international organization has set a date for the moment when the “Age of America” will end and the U.S. economy will be overtaken by that of China.
And it’s a lot closer than you may think.
According to the latest IMF official forecasts, China’s economy will surpass that of America in real terms in 2016 — just five years from now.
Put that in your calendar.
It provides a painful context for the budget wrangling taking place in Washington, D.C., right now. It raises enormous questions about what the international security system is going to look like in just a handful of years. And it casts a deepening cloud over both the U.S. dollar and the giant Treasury market, which have been propped up for decades by their privileged status as the liabilities of the world’s hegemonic power.
According to the IMF forecast, whoever is elected U.S. president next year — Obama? Mitt Romney? Donald Trump? — will be the last to preside over the world’s largest economy.
Most people aren’t prepared for this. They aren’t even aware it’s that close. Listen to experts of various stripes and they will tell you this moment is decades away. The most bearish will put the figure in the mid-2020s.
Snip
Dozer523
04-25-2011, 07:36
Maybe China's economy will be bigger. But as the Australian instructor at the Advanced Coures (Career course to you youngsters) said about tanks in the wire, "So what?"
Is bigger going to trump more flexible or more responsible or (your adjective goes here)?
SO WHAT!!?? There are TANKS in the WIRE!!!
so what are you going to do about it?
Blitzzz (RIP)
04-25-2011, 07:41
Second rate Politicians = second rate government = loss of standing.
second world-----> third world.
John_Chrichton
04-25-2011, 08:54
It's not surprising. We're responsible for our own undoing. How did we let this (http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/downchart_gs.php?year=1903_2010&view=1&expand=&units=p&fy=fy12&chart=F0-total&bar=0&stack=1&size=l&title=US%20Government%20Spending%20As%20Percent%20 Of%20GDP&state=US&color=c&local=s) and this (http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/) happen? Did we seriously believe that we won't live to see the consequences?
Guess the folks who made "Atlas Shrugged Part I" did their research:
http://patriotupdate.com/articles/atlas-shrugged-part-1-movie-review
New, competent leadership will help. :munchin
IMF economists have made many projections (predictions) over the last several decades and have written off many tens of billions of $$ worth of investments based upon those studies.
I'll wait and see; IMO making such comparisons between developed and emerging economies remains an 'iffy' proposition at best - and especially so in today's interconnected and turbulent global economic arena.
Reviewing the IMF doc (atchd) makes it all seem to me to be much less of the sure thing presented in the news article and maybe closer to an 'end of History' sort of declaration on their part.
Richard :munchin
GratefulCitizen
04-25-2011, 20:32
China's miracle is about to end.
Inflation is catching up with them.
Bernanke has been giving their inflation a little kick as well.
China will have to de-peg, and with it their mercantilism.
We'll be fine in this country, so long as we remain a net exporter of food.
People will trade anything in order to eat.
China's miracle is about to end.
Inflation is catching up with them.
Bernanke has been giving their inflation a little kick as well.
China will have to de-peg, and with it their mercantilism.
We'll be fine in this country, so long as we remain a net exporter of food.
People will trade anything in order to eat.
...and energy.
China is building 60 new nuke site over the next 10-12 years.
China also own's no raw yellowcake/pellet mills.
Start investing is food distribution and water companies.
New, competent leadership will help. :munchin
That is a very true statement. I think a majority of the national voting base has been spoiled and corrupted by all of the free shit that congress has been giving out as they use the public trust to pay for their votes.
Unfortunately, it seems like it would have made more sense if you posted it in the humor section.
...competent leadership. hahahaha - good one
New, competent leadership[.]In this day and age, can these two qualities be found together? (How long does it take one to learn to govern and to lead effectively?)
Kyobanim
04-26-2011, 10:55
China is building 60 new nuke site over the next 10-12 years
and they will probably work as good as their coal fired plants. Maybe I should open a radiation suit factory.
The Reaper
04-26-2011, 11:21
and they will probably work as good as their coal fired plants. Maybe I should open a radiation suit factory.
I agree.
Here we have a country that cannot build jet engines trying to build reactors and scatter them nationwide.
What could go wrong here?
TR
Here we have a country that cannot build jet engines trying to build reactors and scatter them nationwide.
What could go wrong here?
Coming soon for your amusement - the new and improved Chinese Fire Drill...BIGGER and HOTTER and BRIGHTER than ever!
Richard :munchin
mojaveman
04-26-2011, 14:31
...and water companies.
Yep. 20% of the planet's fresh water sitting right here in the Great Lakes.
GratefulCitizen
04-26-2011, 14:48
Time is not on China's side.
They are rapidly becoming more dependent on imports for food, energy, and many raw materials.
Those who export to them will take notice, and take profit.
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/4/13/saupload_china_foreign_oil_dependence2.jpg
The US is dependent on foreign crude, but not critically dependent.
We are fighting with one arm tied (arbitrary environmental restrictions), have a large strategic reserve, and much of our imports come from Canada and Mexico.
China's economy is very labor-intensive and the population is sensitive to inflation (particularly in food).
The dual problems of wage pressure and demographic decline may prove intractable.
The faltering of China's economy is a far greater threat than their economy surpassing that of the US.
The easiest way to placate over a billion disgruntled citizens is to provide them with a common enemy.
Red Flag 1
04-26-2011, 15:17
Does anyone see Donald Trump having any effect in this if he is elected?
RF 1
Originally posted by Red Flag 1:
Does anyone see Donald Trump having any effect in this if he is elected?
Well, how many times has one of the companies that he owns filed for bankruptcy? Haven't there been several?
http://www.mademan.com/mm/how-many-times-has-donald-trump-filed-bankruptcy.html
Utah Bob
04-26-2011, 16:11
So when a Chinese nuke plant goes meltdown, what do they call it?
U.S. Syndrome?
Utah Bob
04-26-2011, 16:12
Does anyone see Donald Trump having any effect in this if he is elected?
RF 1
Stop. You're makin my sides hurt.:D:rolleyes:
The Reaper
04-26-2011, 16:19
So when a Chinese nuke plant goes meltdown, what do they call it?
U.S. Syndrome?
Flied lice?
TR
So when a Chinese nuke plant goes meltdown, what do they call it?
U.S. Syndrome?
Nothing to see here, there is no problem, move along.
So when a Chinese nuke plant goes meltdown, what do they call it?
U.S. Syndrome?
A secret.
So when a Chinese nuke plant goes meltdown, what do they call it?
As happened with the Chinese Embassy in Budapest - oopppsss! ;)
Richard :munchin
frostfire
04-26-2011, 23:45
China's miracle is about to end.
Inflation is catching up with them.
Bernanke has been giving their inflation a little kick as well.
China will have to de-peg, and with it their mercantilism.
We'll be fine in this country, so long as we remain a net exporter of food.
People will trade anything in order to eat.
so this ad is largely propaganda :confused:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TYKAbRK_wKA
I won't discount the Chinese ability to emulate France's lead in nuclear power use. If Iran can use foreign contractors to start one, I do not doubt Chinese can do the same then make it 100x more efficient and cheaper. I recall my dedicated peers who earned their phd's in nuclear engineering, chemical engineering, electrical engineering, and so on at top US universities then went back to China. If those brain powers and accumulated knowledge are put to good use, we are in trouble. Of course, some of them opted to stay here when a taste of freedom overrode the excellent nationalistic/ethnic pride conditioning in the school system and culture. That conditioning is no joke. I have family members who grew up attending that school system and to them it's China über alles .
If only the MSM here did extensive coverage of the 2010 Shanghai World Expo, Americans would readily see trades, technology, and other countries (ie. BRIC)are steadily shifting to China. Other venues similar to the world expo exhibits likewise trend.
Like TR always said, be prepared.
If Donald Trump gets elected I will run in 20 years under the "I have less hair platform, and it looks better", UN Sanctions for every one (because they always work :D), and the slogan of "If sanctions don't work superior fire power will." TS or TR you want to be my running mate?
This election year should be interesting especially with China outranking us, the Middle East up in arms, and national debt. :munchin
LT W
ObliqueApproach
04-27-2011, 06:26
Here is a very interesting/current book you might want to read on this subject: Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power by Robert D. Kaplan. There are interviews with some QPs, living in the Far East, some of you might know.
For 20 years I've been watching Chinese nationals take key IT support roles in big pharma, e.g. database administration, network security analysis, etc. Total insanity. "Oh, he's the son of the deputy minister of finance, it's sort of a quid pro quo for our marketing efforts in Guangdong province." The keys to the research kingdom, on a silver platter. I have to assume that other industries have been similarly shortsighted.
Genetic engineering, aerospace, pharmaceuticals, materials science, chip technology. Process control, quality control, management structure, logistics. All handed over.
Trump is a total tool but if he opens the debate on the Sino-American war he'll have done this country a great service. I'm a capitalist at heart but that doesn't mean I'll sit still for a mugging.
Trump is a total tool but if he opens the debate on the Sino-American war he'll have done this country a great service. I'm a capitalist at heart but that doesn't mean I'll sit still for a mugging.
Question: Who would you rather have as POTUS right now, Trump or Obama?
Kyobanim
04-27-2011, 10:55
Question: Who would you rather have as POTUS right now, Trump or Obama?
My wife, at least she listens to me. . . sometimes
Originally quoted by Dusty:
Question: Who would you rather have as POTUS right now, Trump or Obama?
That is an extremely loaded question. On the one hand you have an egotistical, self aggrandizing, lying sack of dog "scheisse" and on the other hand......
...wait a second! The other hand is identical except for color, but opposite. That must be the hand that I use to wipe with.
Though I agree with Trump's basic premises, that he stated earlier today, regarding the U.S.-China economic relationship and also the fact that many an OPEC country owes their very existence to U.S. military might, I do not feel that he is the man to pull it off. IMHO. he is just too much of a loose cannon, like what we are presently enduring, except with a different flavor.
That is an extremely loaded question. On the one hand you have an egotistical, self aggrandizing, lying sack of dog "scheisse" and on the other hand......
...wait a second! The other hand is identical except for color, but opposite. That must be the hand that I use to wipe with.
Though I agree with Trump's basic premises, that he stated earlier today, regarding the U.S.-China economic relationship and also the fact that many an OPEC country owes their very existence to U.S. military might, I do not feel that he is the man to pull it off. IMHO. he is just too much of a loose cannon, like what we are presently enduring, except with a different flavor.
One's not communist.
Originally quoted by Dusty:
One's not communist.
That is true and I love your way with words.
Question: Who would you rather have as POTUS right now, Trump or Obama?
Seriously? Obama. But it won't come to that.
Seriously? Obama. But it won't come to that.
I asked "right now".
Back on topic...and another point of view on the matter.
Richard :munchin
China Won't Pass The U.S. Anytime Soon
ForeignPolicy, 28 Apr 2011
There has been a lot of commentary recently on the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) projection of China's GDP passing that of the United States to become the world's largest by 2016. That only proves the adage that "there are lies, damn lies, and statistics."
The IMF number that has gotten such attention is the Chinese GDP as calculated based on purchasing power parity (PPP) numbers. If this sounds like gobbledygook, it kind of is. On the one hand, it is a useful calculation to make certain international comparisons with regard to standards of living. So for example, if you make only $2000 annually but your food costs only $200, you may be better off than someone in another country who makes $20,000 annually but who has to pay $10,000 for food. Or maybe the food comparison is not apt because diets differ between countries. In the Americas, potatoes tend to be inexpensive and serve as a main form of starch in the average diet. In Asia, potatoes tend to be expensive. So if you compare how many potatoes one can buy with a certain income in the Americas to how many one can buy with the same income in Asia, the Asians will appear to be poorer and to have a lower standard of living than the Americans. But Asians don't eat potatoes as their main form of starch. They eat rice, and rice in Asia tends to be inexpensive. So a better standard of living comparison is between how much rice an Asian can buy with a certain income as against how many potatoes an American can by with the same income.
So far so good. In this way, the PPP calculation gives us a better understanding of the real purchasing power of incomes in various societies. The most famous PPP calculation is the Economist's Big Mac index. This is the comparison of how much it costs in various countries to buy a Big Mac from McDonalds. Since Big Macs have become a kind of shared international good, the index is a fairly accurate way of measuring comparative standards of living around the world.
But, the PPP calculation has a serious limitation. It does not at all reflect international buying power and thus is not at all an accurate measure of relative global economic and geo-political power. International transactions are done at nominal, not PPP, currency values. For example, you might be able to buy a night at a hotel in Washington D.C. for $300. If you go to Paris, you don't buy a hotel room with PPP dollars. Rather you have to exchange dollars for euros at the nominal exchange rate and then pay for the room in euros. At current rates, the same room in Paris is likely to cost you about $500. So while in PPP calculations you may be said to have the same hotel room in Washington with your American income as a Parisian has in Paris with his/her higher European income, when you go to Paris, you will, in fact, be poor in comparison to your French friends.
Let's get back to China: On a PPP basis, the IMF says that China's current GDP is about $11.5 trillion while that of the United States is $15.2 trillion. But at current exchange rates, the IMF notes that China's GDP is only $6.5 trillion or a little more than a third the size of the U.S. GDP. That is the more important figure to look at when considering relative international buying power and economic and geo-political influence. The IMF has China passing the U.S. GDP in 2016 on PPP calculations. But on a real exchange rate basis, the IMF numbers show China's 2016 GDP to be only about two thirds that of the United States.
Now, let's add another dash of reality. Those numbers all assume that China's growth rate continues to rise in pretty much a straight line. But maybe it won't. Here are two things to keep in mind. One is that the Chinese population will begin to age rapidly in the next few years and that is likely to have some slowing effect on the GDP. In addition, we must understand that China's growth is extremely investment intensive. Domestic consumption accounts for only about 35-40 percent of GDP.
In recent years, China has been in the situation that it gets less GDP growth-per-dollar or yuan invested each year. So it has to invest more and more each year just to maintain a constant rate of growth. Obviously, this reachs a limit. The entire GDP cannot be invested. The IMF and others assume that China will be able to rebalance its economy and get more growth from domestic consumption while getting a bit less from investment. But the experience of other Asian countries over the past fifty years suggests that this rebalancing is extremely difficult to achieve. Maybe China will prove the exception, but its efforts in this regard so far are not impressive.
So, while the idea of China rushing past the United States in the global GDP sweep stakes makes for dramatic headlines, it isn't going to happen any time soon.
http://prestowitz.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/04/28/china_wont_pass_the_us_anytime_soon
I asked "right now".
Obama vs Trump? Obama. Right now.
Seize the Iraqi oil fields and hold them until we've pumped $1.3 trillion? Put troops on the ground in Libya? Egypt's revolution is due to a lack of respect for the United States? The US is the most highly taxed nation in the world?
The guy's an entertainer. Bomb throwers are useful tools sometimes, but I wouldn't want the guy signing any executive orders.
Just my opinion, I realize he's struck a chord and is zipping up in the polls.
mark46th
04-29-2011, 16:29
Trump is the only one out there who has an ego as big as Obama's.
I think when it comes time to announce his candidacy, Trump will back off. I doubt if he could stand up to the scrutiny of his financial disclosure... He says he isn't afraid of it but we shall see...
Obama vs Trump? Obama. Right now.
You must be real proud of the shape the Country's in, then.
incarcerated
04-29-2011, 23:11
35 years ago, we were worried about a different Asian competitor whose vibrant economic engine made it the rising star of the era. The Japanese were buying up choice, hi-profile properties in Hollywood, downtown Los Angeles, New York and elsewhere, attracting a great deal of media attention and causing no small alarm among Americans. Thanks to fundamental structural problems in its banking system, and to the tendency of their executives to value market share over profit, Japan’s economy has been stagnant for over 30 years. China shares similar traits, but has a difference in scale. What it lacks in competence , China can, to some extent, make up in numbers and sheer size. This may not be enough to save China from an economic fate similar to Japan’s.
If China ever gets genuine freedom and can manage to shed the bulk of its corruption, look out.
incarcerated
04-30-2011, 19:53
Yep, but then we won't have to worry about them being a military threat or trying to take over Taiwan or challenge us. Imagine how safe from major dictators the world would be if we had two major superpowers that were liberal democracies with market economies, the U.S. and China.
I’m not going to hold my breath.