View Full Version : Tunisia
silentreader
01-14-2011, 15:32
President has fled the country after protests continued despite him making big concessions on freedom of media, etc... Meanwhile, protests continue in Jordan (over inflation) and Algeria and Lebanon's political system is a mess. Just when it seemed like the Middle East might get boring...
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/15/world/africa/15tunis.html?hp
Moved thread to Africa - Richard
President has fled the country after protests continued despite him making big concessions on freedom of media, etc... Meanwhile, protests continue in Jordan (over inflation) and Algeria and Lebanon's political system is a mess. Just when it seemed like the Middle East might get boring...
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/15/world/africa/15tunis.html?hpSR--
Why do you define Tunisia as a Middle Eastern country?
SR--
Why do you define Tunisia as a Middle Eastern country?
Well, it is in the middle part of the country east of the Med.
I was recently in N. Africa, and was surprised by the mass-movement element in politics and national identity. Elsewhere in the Arab world I've seen very localized rioting or protests, usually over an external interest (i.e. protesting an American envoy vs. protesting domestic politics), or maybe local issues (tribal or religious based).
Those with longer term experience than I, is this a shift, or am I off my rocker? In one country in North Africa I was in, there were spontaneous demonstrations in the streets with some degree of frequency, in a manner that I tend to associate with socialist movements more so than Islamist or right-wing Arab politics. That could be a misconception on my part.
When I was in the Middle East (not North Africa) studying politics and religion, there was some resentment towards the governments of the Arab World, on the part of Islamists because they fail to uphold Sharia, and on the part of progressives because of perceived U.S. influence in international policy. Despite that discontentment, it was not something that people were willing to act on - crossing the government wasn't worth the cost. Now we're seeing simultaneous events across the Arab world - any theories on why?
-out
Well, it is in the middle part of the country east of the Med.Opportunities for snark aside:D--my pink fonted contribution had me laughing before I erased it--I meant the question seriously.
Bernard Nietschmann (http://www.clas.berkeley.edu/Research/faculty/nietschmann/index.html) often wondered if it helps or hinders (or both) our ability to interact with the world when we define countries by geographical region?
Somewhat similarly, historians of Eastern Europe have long rankled at the notion that the pivot of Western civilization is considered by popular audiences to be west of Poland.
As SR is a student of the Middle East, I was wondering what kind of information he'd received that had led him to conclude Tunisia is a Middle Eastern country.
ETA-- SR, to be clear, my question reflects genuine intellectual curiosity.
silentreader
01-14-2011, 17:02
SR--
Why do you define Tunisia as a Middle Eastern country?
It's a good question, and gets to the principle difficulty in using any term with sweeping connotations (such as Middle-east, Arab, Islam, Christian, European, "Westerner" etc...) In fact, I'd say the answer is the same as why we consider Australians (or Israelis) to be Westerners instead of Asians. Geographically, they look like they're a lot closer to China, but culturally and historically, their roots lie in what we know as "The West".
Same thing goes for all the countries in North Africa: their history and their self-identification link them much closer to the Middle East than to Europe (or the rest of Africa). They share a language (even if they butcher it beyond recognition in places), a religion (for the most part) and an ethnic identity with Middle Easterners. GRANTED, a lot of Berbers disagree, but even they have adopted many of the "identifiers" of Middle Eastern life.
The really simple and most honest answer to your question is I didn't even think about it. For me, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt all fall squarely within the realm of "Middle East." It's countries in the Sahil and the Horn of Africa like Eritrea, Somalia, the Sudan, and Mauritania that are harder for me to define.
incarcerated
01-15-2011, 00:17
SR--
Why do you define Tunisia as a Middle Eastern country?
Because we don’t have a forum for the Maghreb…?
Where would you prefer he had posted this thread? (Personally, I’d have liked to have seen it in The Early Bird.)
From the NY Times piece:
The fall of Mr. Ben Ali marked the first time that widespread street demonstrations had overthrown an Arab leader. And even before the last clouds of tear gas had drifted away from the capital’s cafe-lined Bourguiba Boulevard, people throughout the Arab world had begun debating whether Tunisia’s uprising could prove to be a model, threatening other autocratic rulers in the region.
“What happened here is going to affect the whole Arab world,” said Zied Mhirsi, a 33-year-old doctor protesting outside the Interior Ministry on Friday. He carried a sign highlighting how he believed Tunisia’s protests could embolden the swelling numbers of young people around the Arab world to emulate the so-called Jasmine Revolution.
No mention of a military coup, as reported by Stratfor.
http://en.ammonnews.<net>/article.aspx?articleNO=11323
Be sure to remove the <> from .<net>.
Team Sergeant
01-15-2011, 09:20
Because we don’t have a forum for the Maghreb…?
Where would you prefer he had posted this thread? (Personally, I’d have liked to have seen it in The Early Bird.)
From the NY Times piece:
No mention of a military coup, as reported by Stratfor.
Africa, where it belongs.
Because we don’t have a forum for the Maghreb…?
Where would you prefer he had posted this thread? ..........
Where? That is a good question which has been explained.
This board has a limited number of folders right now. There does need to be a balance of some sort to the number vs function vs viewing.
Most folks post where they think the subject fits.
A good example is the sub continent of India flowing back to Iran. Much overlap from Pakiistan west into the Middle East Folder and the Same with India east into the Asian Folder.
Africa kinda' splits that way also into the Muslim North Africa (I know, I know Niger, Nigeria has problems) and the Animalistic/Christian Africa south of the Sahara Desert.
I'm sure the QPs and most milpers on the board are familiar with this, but some of the civilian readers may not realize how regional divisions vary between different government agencies.
As frustrating as it can be that they don't share the same regions as DoD, StateDept divisions (http://future.state.gov/where/maps.html) make more sense IMO. Now, the downfall is when you get into interagency projects (such as the TSCTP), and suddenly you have AFRICOM projects requiring coordination with two different StateDept chains of command with both the NEA and AF bureaus. Likewise CENTCOM includes portions of NEA and South and Central Asia.
The truth is sometimes geographic boundaries are not as accurate as cultural boundaries, at the regional, national, or even district level. Take for example the linguistic map of Afghanistan/Pakistan. (http://www.muturzikin.com/cartesasie/4.htm)
I have had the problem of trying to figure out whether to follow cultural, diplomatic, or geographic boundaries back to high school when I was in charge of the extemp box for the speech team. I can't tell you how many times I had to move the Afghanistan folder back to Asia after some punk thought he was doing the world a favor by putting it in Middle East.
Back in my box now.
-out
Where would you prefer he had posted this thread? Inky--
To be clear, my question was "why here", not "why not there." (I myself would have started the thread under Africa.)
That being said, there are SR's response and Defend's post.
I'm sure the QPs and most milpers on the board are familiar with this, but some of the civilian readers may not realize how regional divisions vary between different government agencies.
As frustrating as it can be that they don't share the same regions as DoD, StateDept divisions (http://future.state.gov/where/maps.html) make more sense IMO. Now, the downfall is when you get into interagency projects (such as the TSCTP), and suddenly you have AFRICOM projects requiring coordination with two different StateDept chains of command with both the NEA and AF bureaus. Likewise CENTCOM includes portions of NEA and South and Central Asia.
The truth is sometimes geographic boundaries are not as accurate as cultural boundaries, at the regional, national, or even district level. Take for example the linguistic map of Afghanistan/Pakistan. (http://www.muturzikin.com/cartesasie/4.htm)
I have had the problem of trying to figure out whether to follow cultural, diplomatic, or geographic boundaries back to high school when I was in charge of the extemp box for the speech team. I can't tell you how many times I had to move the Afghanistan folder back to Asia after some punk thought he was doing the world a favor by putting it in Middle East.
Back in my box now.
-outDefend--
If you would, please develop your point on how/why you think DoS geographic divisions make more sense.
Defend--
If you would, please develop your point on how/why you think DoS geographic divisions make more sense.
I was hoping you'd ask ;).
Keeping this focused, I’m going to focus on the State Department’s AF/NEA/SCA versus AFRICOM/CENTCOM/PACOM. I’m sure an entire thesis could be written on the subject, so please give me some grace for writing this on limited time.
Framing your initial question into practical examples should make this easier. Should India be grouped with Thailand and Japan (DoD) or Afghanistan and Pakistan(DoS)? Should Tunisia be grouped with Zimbabwe (DoD) or Iraq (DoS)?
A region can be compared to a family of nations. Sometimes you are born into the family, sometimes adopted (e.g. Australia, as mentioned by silentreader, although clearly there are many historical reasons for this adoption and for the current population of Australia). My goal is to identify the blood relatives in the family tree. Here are the characteristics that are foundational in identifying these families.
1. Geographic (timeless): “Are these countries geographically similar?”
2. Cultural (progressive present): “Do these countries share similar cultural norms or ethnic history?”
3. Linguistic (historical): “Do these countries share linguistic roots?”
4. Diplomatic (present): “Do these countries today view each other as related?”
My personal opinion is that three of the four questions should be answered with “yes” to consider countries to be in the same region. Let’s run the test on two countries – Lebanon and Morocco.
1. Are these countries geographically similar? For our purposes, yes. Although located on different continents, both countries are coastal to the Mediterranean Sea. Morocco serves as the southern gateway to the Mediterranean.
2. Do these countries share similar cultural norms or ethnic history? Yes. Both countries were conquered by Arab Islamic invaders. Additionally, this conquest led to Arab (Berber) domination among the population of Morocco.
3. Do these countries share linguistic roots? Yes. The majority of both populations speak Arabic, as well as French (although in this case the French is almost irrelevant).
4. Do these countries today view each other as related? Yes. Both countries are members of the Arab League, and work together on regional initiatives.
So are these countries in the same region? I would say yes. Next lets test Afghanistan and Jordan.
1. Are these countries geographically similar? No.
2. Do these countries share cultural norms or ethnic history? No. Although both countries are have a strong Islamic majority, Afghanistan is not Arab and is more closely related to the cultures of Pakistan and the other “Stans, Iran, and even Northern India (PACOM) than it is to the Arab world.
3. Do these countries share linguistic roots? No.
4. Do these countries today view each other as related? No. Afghanistan has never been a member of the Arab League. Jordanian involvement in Afghanistan is linked to counter-terrorism initiatives through coalition involvement, not in bilateral regional development.
Overall, the State Departments defined regions much more consistently presents related countries as opposed to the Department of Defense command boundaries. In modern warfare understanding the culture, sociology, and psychology of our AOR is as important to the success of our mission as the weapons we carry. I don't see how DoD command boundaries reflect this truth. But maybe that's just my 37F kernel displaying it's source code ;).
If you think there is a better way to look at it, feel free to explain.
-out
silentreader
01-15-2011, 12:45
Africa, where it belongs.
Team Sergeant,
I apologize for misplacing this post. Feel free to move it to the appropriate forum (not that you'd need my permission).
Alternatively, I also mention protests in Jordan and Algeria and the Lebanese crisis, so renaming the thread something along the lines of Political Turmoil in the Arab World could also be appropriate.
Finally, an honest question. In the future, should I have something to post about either a)Israel/Palestine or b)Turkey should it be posted in the Europe thread or the Middle East thread?
Sorry to hijack this thread further, but didn't want to start a new thread, and since it is under "Middle East"...
This is exactly what I was talking about in my first post about a shift in national protests. As before, remove the <> from the addresses.
http://en.ammon<news>.net/article.aspx?articleNO=11324
And the parliament's response:
http://en.<ammon>news.net/article.aspx?articleNO=11318
-out
Team Sergeant
01-15-2011, 15:02
Team Sergeant,
I apologize for misplacing this post. Feel free to move it to the appropriate forum (not that you'd need my permission).
Alternatively, I also mention protests in Jordan and Algeria and the Lebanese crisis, so renaming the thread something along the lines of Political Turmoil in the Arab World could also be appropriate.
Finally, an honest question. In the future, should I have something to post about either a)Israel/Palestine or b)Turkey should it be posted in the Europe thread or the Middle East thread?
I didn't take any offense and you didn't need to apologize. The mistake led to good discussion. It stays here now.
We broke our global forums down by geographic region, not culture.
LongWire
01-15-2011, 15:30
Finally, an honest question. In the future, should I have something to post about either a)Israel/Palestine or b)Turkey should it be posted in the Europe thread or the Middle East thread?
I would say that Israel and Palestine land squarely in the ME......Turkey is part of the EU now if we were to include them Geographically. I personally don't think of them being a ME country, more of a crossroads.......but that goes back a few centuries.
It's a good question, and gets to the principle difficulty in using any term with sweeping connotations (such as Middle-east, Arab, Islam, Christian, European, "Westerner" etc...) In fact, I'd say the answer is the same as why we consider Australians (or Israelis) to be Westerners instead of Asians. Geographically, they look like they're a lot closer to China, but culturally and historically, their roots lie in what we know as "The West".
Same thing goes for all the countries in North Africa: their history and their self-identification link them much closer to the Middle East than to Europe (or the rest of Africa). They share a language (even if they butcher it beyond recognition in places), a religion (for the most part) and an ethnic identity with Middle Easterners. GRANTED, a lot of Berbers disagree, but even they have adopted many of the "identifiers" of Middle Eastern life.
The really simple and most honest answer to your question is I didn't even think about it. For me, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt all fall squarely within the realm of "Middle East." It's countries in the Sahil and the Horn of Africa like Eritrea, Somalia, the Sudan, and Mauritania that are harder for me to define.
Clearly you have not spent much time in Northern Africa. Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya have a completely different "feel" than the Middle East. Way different. Egypt, in my opinion, has spread their "culture" to the ME via movies and TV shows. This is similar to Russia in the mid-90's and their cravings of anything "American" thanks to American TV shows (reruns of 90201, Melrose Place, and anything uttered by Carson Daly). Also, guys from ME countries don't really mind each other (e.g. Kuwaitis, Emiratis, Saudis, Iraqis, etc) but bring an Egyptian to the party and things change. They all "see" a difference...why don't we?
The HOA and Sahel are really easy to define: Crap-hole-istan. :D
silentreader
01-15-2011, 16:26
Clearly you have not spent much time in Northern Africa.
This is true; 2 weeks in Morocco is all I can claim.
Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya have a completely different "feel" than the Middle East. Way different.
Different compared to what? They may be more different than, say, Qatar and Bahrain, but aren't they still closer to that culture than they are to Uganda, for example? They seem to be especially close cousins to the Levantine countries (especially Lebanon). I think the Francophone influence has a lot to do with this.
Egypt, in my opinion, has spread their "culture" to the ME via movies and TV shows. This is similar to Russia in the mid-90's and their cravings of anything "American" thanks to American TV shows (reruns of 90201, Melrose Place, and anything uttered by Carson Daly).
This is true, though Egyptian films are starting to feel dated. American/Syrian/Lebanese and Turkish T.V. shows and movies, broadcast from the Gulf, are the new "big deal" in the M.E.
Also, guys from ME countries don't really mind each other (e.g. Kuwaitis, Emiratis, Saudis, Iraqis, etc) but bring an Egyptian to the party and things change. They all "see" a difference...why don't we?
If one were to try to keep track of all the differences Middle Easterners see that Westerners can't, one would soon go crazy. I once went to a bar-on-a-roof in Beirut by myself. I was sitting in-between two groups of people: 4 girls on my left and 2 guys on my right, all Lebanese. They each started talking to me, and it was getting difficult to keep two conversations going at once, so I kind of tried to combine everybody into a nice, gender balanced group of 4 girls and 3 guys. No way. The Lebanese girls kept telling me that Lebanese guys are scum, and the Lebanese guys kept telling me how Lebanese girls are gold diggers. Finally, I turned to the guys and said, "listen, I'm sure you're really nice. But I'm alone at a bar and can either talk with 4 girls or 2 guys.... have a nice night." That story, to me, is the Middle East in a nutshell.
The HOA and Sahel are really easy to define: Crap-hole-istan. :D
That is easy, and sounds about right. I got close to the Western Sahara border in Morocco, the desert itself is gorgeous but the towns... not so much.
Edit: I also think Islam takes our eye of the ball a little bit; the North African countries could just as easily be considered part of a Southern European/Levantine/Magrhebee "Mediterranean Rim" cultural group. Greeks, Italians, Spanish, coastal Turks and coastal Arabs (phoenicians?) have a lot more in common than they'd like to admit ;)
silentreader
01-15-2011, 16:33
I would say that Israel and Palestine land squarely in the ME......Turkey is part of the EU now if we were to include them Geographically. I personally don't think of them being a ME country, more of a crossroads.......but that goes back a few centuries.
I would agree with the first part, reason I asked is Israel/Palestine is considered EUCOM responsibility. As for Turkey, I'll use my best judgement, if the hypothetical story discusses the western part of Istanbul, it will go under Europe. If it discusses the rest of Turkey, I'll file it in the Middle East. If it talks about the Bosphorus...:confused:
I didn't take any offense and you didn't need to apologize. The mistake led to good discussion. It stays here now.
We broke our global forums down by geographic region, not culture
Thanks for the response. I'm a guest in your house and don't want to track any mud.
Team Sergeant
01-15-2011, 23:24
Thanks for the response. I'm a guest in your house and don't want to track any mud.
I think you'll do well here.
silentreader
01-16-2011, 00:54
I think you'll do well here.
I hope so. I can not imagine a better source of wisdom for a young (future) soldier than this site.
Back to the original topic, it seems that Tunisians have only taken the first step and their country's future is still very uncertain. (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/16/world/africa/16tunis.html?hp)
Does this remind anybody of the first stages of the Iranian revolution?
This is true; 2 weeks in Morocco is all I can claim.
Different compared to what? They may be more different than, say, Qatar and Bahrain, but aren't they still closer to that culture than they are to Uganda, for example? They seem to be especially close cousins to the Levantine countries (especially Lebanon). I think the Francophone influence has a lot to do with this.
This is true, though Egyptian films are starting to feel dated. American/Syrian/Lebanese and Turkish T.V. shows and movies, broadcast from the Gulf, are the new "big deal" in the M.E.
I would posit Egyptian/Lebanese/Turkish shows and movies are the most prevalent in the M.E. and are a significant current type of al-tarb, a kind of Arab view of zeitgeist. If anything, Morocco and Tunisia are the outsiders. From Libya to Saudi to Iraq is Arab Islamic country, and on the borders of that are cousins, sometimes with a history of imperial ambition (Iran, Turkey).
incarcerated
01-16-2011, 03:23
http://www.daylife.com/photo/008a6MW2SAgBB?q=tunisia
6 hours ago
PARIS - JANUARY 15: Tunisian expatriates shout slogans while holding a placard as they demonstrate on January 15, 2011 in Paris, France....
Army attacks Tunisian presidential palace
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110116/ts_afp/tunisiapoliticsunrestpalace
"TUNIS (AFP) – The Tunisian army launched an assault on Sunday against supporters of ousted president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali holed up inside the presidential palace on the outskirts of Tunis, a security source told AFP......."
Things still bubbling over there.
incarcerated
01-18-2011, 21:00
Just a coincidence that, while the generally Asian practice of self-immolation is finding new practitioners in North Africa, this past weekend’s TV news showed a Tunisian protestor telling a reporter, “We want all power to the people!”
http://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical_diary/20110117-arab-leaders-fear-coup-contagion
Arab Leaders Fear Coup Contagion
January 18, 2011 | 0446 GMT
Individuals in three North African countries committed self-immolation on Monday, as Arab governments across the wider region sought to stem the potential for contagion generated by the recent popular uprising in Tunisia, which itself began with an act of self-immolation on Dec. 17. From Syria to Kuwait to Egypt and beyond, ruling regimes are looking inward and trying to pre-empt their discontented masses from coalescing into a threat to their rule.
As STRATFOR has noted, the larger significance of the Tunisian coup lies in its potential to be replicated elsewhere in the Arab world, and in how various governments choose to respond in an effort to prevent it from happening again. Opposition groups in every Arab country have now seen that it is possible to topple regimes that have been in place for decades, and that it does not take an Islamist uprising to do it. Tunisia, in short, has inspired them….
"Let Them Eat Cake?"
Governments in the region fear that such a dramatic act of suicide attempted in so public a fashion — with “new media” forums such as blogs, Twitter, Facebook and YouTube ready to spread the word in a way that can’t be done when state media is all that exists — could trigger a similar event in another country. These governments are searching for ways to pre-emptively appease their constituencies by offering economic aid packages and modest openings of political space. In the three days since the fall of former Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, there have been multiple examples of such concessions.
In Kuwait, Emir Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah decreed that every Kuwaiti citizen receive a one-time payment of KD 1,000 (roughly $3,558), plus free food rations for 13 months beginning in February. Officially, the gifts are being made in coordination with the fifth anniversary of al-Sabah’s rule.
In Syria, state media reported a government plan worth $250 million to help 420,000 impoverished families. Cash loans will be distributed to Syrian citizens who qualify for the aid beginning in February.
In Egypt, the managing editor of the ruling National Democratic Party’s (NDP) website wrote an article declaring that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak does not want poor people to pay new taxes or carry any additional burdens, and NDP officials have been tasked with determining a way to implement this directive throughout the year. In addition, the Egyptian Cabinet announced that it has drafted a law that sets 2017 as the deadline for political parties represented in parliament to field presidential candidates.
In Sudan (the northern, Arab region), the governor of Khartoum state announced measures designed to soften the blow of recent price hikes on commodities such as cooking oil and sugar. Free school meals and health insurance cards will be distributed to 30,000 students and their families.
This is a trend that will likely continue in the coming weeks and months, as world food prices remain high and global economic growth tepid. Arab countries that don’t have the oil wealth of the Persian Gulf states are constrained economically from being able to spend much on social development, but they will seek ways to do so nonetheless, in efforts to garner good faith among those they see as most likely to revolt. Granting additional freedoms to populations used to living under an autocratic society is historically much more dangerous for the ruling regime, but depending on each country’s circumstances, these various Arab governments may one day not have much of a choice. One thing is certain: No Arab ruler wants a citizen to light himself on fire on a busy city street, for fear of the possible side effects.
FYI - for planning purposes and area orientation, SF historically defined Africa sub-regionally as either Africa North of the Sahara or as Sub-Saharan Africa.
Be that as it may, now that we've determined Tunisia is still an African nation in that it actually lies in the geographically defined continent of Africa and despite the seeming wishes by some on this BB to move it (good luck with that one)...here are a few points to ponder.
Richard :munchin
What Tunisia Means for the Arab World
Atlantic, 18 Jan 2011
The popular uprising in Tunisia that forced dictator President Ben Ali to flee the country last week has left the North African country in a state of limbo. Ministers loyal to Ben Ali, who ruled for 23 years, are rapidly resigning their posts, an interim government is pledging to hold free elections, and the military is attempting to restore order as protests continue, looting becomes a problem, and rogue police officers continue to crack down. It's not clear where Tunisia goes next. Many commentators, however, find it increasingly apparent that Tunisia's historic uprising will have a profound effect on the rest of the Arab world, which spans across North Africa and the Middle East. What exactly that means, and how it plays out, is near-impossible to predict. Here's what analysts and reporters are saying about the impact of Tunisia so far and what it could mean going forward.
• Turning Point for Arab Democracy "If Tunisia's interim leaders respond to the demands of their people and usher in new elections," Michael Wahid Hanna writes in The Atlantic, "an Arab country will have toppled a tyrant through the power of its people and not the point of an American gun." This will establish an important precedent of democratic reform led internally by Arab peoples, rather than imposed from outside. "While the U.S. invasion of Iraq and the protests of the 'green movement' in Iran have had far-ranging regional ramifications, when it comes to promoting Arab democracy, Tunisia's 2011 uprising may eclipse them both."
• Self-Immolation Protests Spread Across Region Tunisia's protests began after a young man frustrated by police exploitation and arbitrary rule set himself on fire by touching a high-voltage current. The New York Times' Mona El-Naggar reports on the disturbing trend this has begun. "In Algeria, four men have set themselves on fire in the last week, and one man in Egypt and another in Mauritania tried to do so on Monday. They appear to be evidence of how deeply the ouster of Tunisia's autocratic president has captivated nearby countries, where citizens have limited opportunities for free expression or political participation."
• Is Egypt Next? Eric Trager writes in The Atlantic that "Egypt's liberal activists overwhelmingly come from the wired generation of Twitter and Facebook, and this makes them optimistic that pro-democratic movements can go viral, even in a political environment as traditionally illiberal as the Middle East." In fact, "pointing to recent demonstrations in Jordan and Algeria, they insist that Tunisia's 'Jasmine Revolution' will be contagious--if only people build off its momentum." But, Trager warns, protesters daunting obstacles, "In particular, an entrenched dictatorship that is determined to discredit the very idea of domino-effect democratization." He concludes, "The safe bet in Egypt is always on regime stability. But as Tunisia has demonstrated, anything is possible."
• Reforms Likely, Revolutions Are Not "Analysts say," The Christian Science Monitor's Scott Peterson writes, " that while Tunisia's so-called 'Jasmine Revolution' has shocked the Arab world ... it is unlikely to result in a chain of similar revolutions, but rather wider political reforms." Tunisia's strong middle class made it unusually likely to launch a successful popular uprising, and other Arab autocrats are well-practiced at squashing dissent. Still, the protests may encourage those leaders to institute some promising reforms, is only out of self-defense.
• Look to the Gulf Model UAE-based columnist Sultan al-Qassemi argues in Foreign Policy that "it is the Gulf city-states of Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Doha--all of which are ruled by an assortment of emirs and monarchs--that offer the most compelling path forward for the Arab world. Despite a lack of Western-style democracy, talented young Arabs have flocked to these states in search of a better life." While al-Qassemi would of course prefer full democratization, the compromises of wealthy Gulf states, he says, could provide a middle path. "In the meantime, most Arabs would settle for a dignified and secure life. And that is precisely what the Gulf states are providing."
http://www.theatlanticwire.com/opinions/view/opinion/What-Tunisia-Means-for-the-Arab-World-6594
incarcerated
01-22-2011, 01:28
Where have I heard this expression before?
….Algerian opposition groups have used events in Tunisia as a backdrop for demonstrations, including a pro-democracy rally planned for Saturday. Algeria's state news agency urged citizens not to heed the call to protest.
In Jordan, several thousand people participated in demonstrations last week, including what left-wing groups and trade unions yesterday called a "day of rage" over rising food and fuel prices. There were also demonstrations in restive southern Yemen, where protesters said recent government reforms didn't go far enough….
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704115404576096353954779120.html
The protesters who toppled Tunisia's dictator weren't advocating sharia or Islamic law. They were calling for freedom, democracy, and multiparty elections. Across the Arab Middle East, the generation that is leading the protest against dictatorship does not have an Islamist character.
Richard :munchin
The Tunisian revolt: Where have all the Islamists gone?
CSM, 21 Jan 2011
The novel characteristic of the first peaceful popular revolution to topple a dictatorship in the Arab world is that there is nothing Islamic about it.
The young Tunisian street peddler who triggered the revolt by publicly burning himself reminds us of the Vietnamese Buddhist monks in 1963 or of Jan Palach in Czechoslovakia in 1969 – an act of precisely the opposite nature from the suicide bombings that are the trademark of present Islamic terrorism.
Even in this sacrificial act, there has been nothing religious: no green or black turban, no loose white gown, no “Allah Akbar,” no call to jihad. It was instead an individual, desperate, and absolute protest, without a word on paradise and salvation.
Suicide in this case was the last act of freedom aimed at shaming the dictator and prodding the public to react. It was a call to life, not death.
In the street demonstrations that followed, there was no call for an Islamic state, no white shroud put by protesters in front of the bayonets as in Tehran in 1978.
Nothing about sharia or Islamic law. And, most striking, no “down with US imperialism.” The hated regime was perceived as an indigenous one, the result of fear and passivity, and not as the puppet of French or US neocolonialism, despite its endorsement by the French political elite.
An End To Kleptocratic Rule
Instead, the protesters were calling for freedom, democracy, and multiparty elections. Put more simply, they just wanted to get rid of the kleptocratic ruling family (“dégage!” as said a popular motto in French).
In this Muslim society nothing about an “Islamic exceptionalism” was manifest. And at the end, when the real “Islamist” leaders came from their exile in the West (yes they are in the West, not in Afghanistan or Saudi Arabia), they, like Rachid Ghannoushi, spoke of elections, coalition government, and stability – all the while keeping a low profile.
Have The Islamists Disappeared?
No. But in North Africa, at least, most of them have become democrats. True, fringe groups have followed the path of a nomadic global jihad and are roaming the Sahel in search of hostages, but they have no real support in the population. That is why they went to the desert.
Nevertheless, these highway robbers are still branded as a strategic threat by Western governments at a loss to design a long-term policy. Other Islamists have just given up politics and closed their door, pursuing a pious, conservative, but apolitical way of life. They put a burqa on their wives as well as on their lives.
But the bulk of the former Islamists have come to the same conclusion of the generation that founded the Justice and Development (AK) party in Turkey: There is no third way between democracy and dictatorship. There is just dictatorship and democracy.
This acknowledgement of the failure of political Islam has met the mood of the new generation of protesters in Tunisia. The new Arab generation is not motivated by religion or ideology, but by the aspiration for a peaceful transition to a decent, democratic, and “normal” government. They just want to be like the others.
The Tunisian revolt helps clarify a reality about Arab life: The terrorism we’ve seen over the past few years, with its utopian millenarism, doesn’t stem from the real societies of the Middle East. More Islamic radicals are to be found in the West than at home.
To be sure, the picture differs from country to country. The post-Islamist generation is more visible in North Africa than in Egypt or Yemen, not to speak of Pakistan, which is a collapsing country. But everywhere in the Arab Middle East, the generation that is leading the protest against dictatorship does not have an Islamist character.
This is not to say there are no big challenges ahead. There are indeed many: how to find political leaders who can live up to popular expectations; how to avoid the pitfalls of anarchy; how to reconstruct political and social bonds that have been deliberately destroyed by dictatorial regimes and rebuild a civil society.
But there is at least one immediate question raised by the Tunisian revolution.
West Must Reconsider Is Approach
Why is the West still supporting most of the Middle East dictatorships even as this democratic surge roils across the region? The answer in the past, of course, has been that the West sees authoritarian regimes as the best bulwark against Islamism.
That was the rationale behind its support for the cancellation of the elections in Algeria in 1990, for turning a blind eye on the rigging of the Egyptian elections, and for ignoring the choice of the Palestinians in Gaza.
In light of the Tunisian experience, this approach must be reevaluated. In the first place, these regimes are no longer a reliable bulwark. They could just collapse at anytime. Second, what are they a bulwark against if the new generation is post-Islamist and pro-democratic?
Just as Tunisia has been a turning point in the Arab world, so too it must be a turning point in the West’s policy toward the region. Realpolitik today means supporting the democratization of the Middle East.
http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Global-Viewpoint/2011/0121/The-Tunisian-revolt-Where-have-all-the-Islamists-gone
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/egypt/8289686/Egypt-protests-Americas-secret-backing-for-rebel-leaders-behind-uprising.html
Egypt protests: America's secret backing for rebel leaders behind uprising
The American government secretly backed leading figures behind the Egyptian uprising who have been planning “regime change” for the past three years, The Daily Telegraph has learned.
The American Embassy in Cairo helped a young dissident attend a US-sponsored summit for activists in New York, while working to keep his identity secret from Egyptian state police.
On his return to Cairo in December 2008, the activist told US diplomats that an alliance of opposition groups had drawn up a plan to overthrow President Hosni Mubarak and install a democratic government in 2011.
The secret document in full
He has already been arrested by Egyptian security in connection with the demonstrations and his identity is being protected by The Daily Telegraph.
The crisis in Egypt follows the toppling of Tunisian president Zine al-Abedine Ben Ali, who fled the country after widespread protests forced him from office.
The disclosures, contained in previously secret US diplomatic dispatches released by the WikiLeaks website, show American officials pressed the Egyptian government to release other dissidents who had been detained by the police.
Mr Mubarak, facing the biggest challenge to his authority in his 31 years in power, ordered the army on to the streets of Cairo yesterday as rioting erupted across Egypt.
Tens of thousands of anti-government protesters took to the streets in open defiance of a curfew. An explosion rocked the centre of Cairo as thousands defied orders to return to their homes. As the violence escalated, flames could be seen near the headquarters of the governing National Democratic Party.
Police fired rubber bullets and used tear gas and water cannon in an attempt to disperse the crowds.
At least five people were killed in Cairo alone yesterday and 870 injured, several with bullet wounds. Mohamed ElBaradei, the pro-reform leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner, was placed under house arrest after returning to Egypt to join the dissidents. Riots also took place in Suez, Alexandria and other major cities across the country.
William Hague, the Foreign Secretary, urged the Egyptian government to heed the “legitimate demands of protesters”. Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, said she was “deeply concerned about the use of force” to quell the protests.
In an interview for the American news channel CNN, to be broadcast tomorrow, David Cameron said: “I think what we need is reform in Egypt. I mean, we support reform and progress in the greater strengthening of the democracy and civil rights and the rule of law.”
The US government has previously been a supporter of Mr Mubarak’s regime. But the leaked documents show the extent to which America was offering support to pro-democracy activists in Egypt while publicly praising Mr Mubarak as an important ally in the Middle East.
In a secret diplomatic dispatch, sent on December 30 2008, Margaret Scobey, the US Ambassador to Cairo, recorded that opposition groups had allegedly drawn up secret plans for “regime change” to take place before elections, scheduled for September this year.
The memo, which Ambassador Scobey sent to the US Secretary of State in Washington DC, was marked “confidential” and headed: “April 6 activist on his US visit and regime change in Egypt.”
It said the activist claimed “several opposition forces” had “agreed to support an unwritten plan for a transition to a parliamentary democracy, involving a weakened presidency and an empowered prime minister and parliament, before the scheduled 2011 presidential elections”. The embassy’s source said the plan was “so sensitive it cannot be written down”.
Ambassador Scobey questioned whether such an “unrealistic” plot could work, or ever even existed. However, the documents showed that the activist had been approached by US diplomats and received extensive support for his pro-democracy campaign from officials in Washington. The embassy helped the campaigner attend a “summit” for youth activists in New York, which was organised by the US State Department.
Cairo embassy officials warned Washington that the activist’s identity must be kept secret because he could face “retribution” when he returned to Egypt. He had already allegedly been tortured for three days by Egyptian state security after he was arrested for taking part in a protest some years earlier.
The protests in Egypt are being driven by the April 6 youth movement, a group on Facebook that has attracted mainly young and educated members opposed to Mr Mubarak. The group has about 70,000 members and uses social networking sites to orchestrate protests and report on their activities.
The documents released by WikiLeaks reveal US Embassy officials were in regular contact with the activist throughout 2008 and 2009, considering him one of their most reliable sources for information about human rights abuses.
incarcerated
01-31-2011, 01:54
http://www.stratfor.com/sitrep/20110130-tunisia-thousands-welcome-return-exiled-islamist-leader
Tunisia: Thousands Welcome Return Of Exiled Islamist Leader
January 30, 2011 | 1703 GMT
Thousands of Tunisians on Jan. 30 welcomed Islamist leader Sheikh Rachid Ghannouchi, the head of the Ennahda party, at the airport in Tunis, Reuters reported. The reception was the largest showing of the country’s Islamists in 20 years, as many of them were jailed or exiled by former President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Ghannouchi was exiled in 1989.
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http://blogs.reuters.com/faithworld/2011/01/30/factbox-who-is-tunisias-islamist-leader-rachid-ghannouchi/
....Tunisia has had a strong secular tradition since its independence from France in 1956. Both Bourguiba and Ben Ali discouraged women from wearing the Islamic veil and men from sporting long beards and enforced secular ideals....
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http://www.martinkramer.org/sandbox/reader/archives/a-u-s-visa-for-rachid-ghannouchi/
A U.S. Visa for Rachid Ghannouchi?
Martin Kramer, “A U.S. Visa for an Islamic Extremist?” Policywatch, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, no. 121, June 29, 1994.
....Who Is Rashid Ghannouchi?
Rashid Ghannouchi was born in 1941 in the south of Tunisia. As a student in Damascus and Paris, he embraced the doctrines of the Muslim Brotherhood, which he disseminated on his return to Tunisia. His writings and activities against the government during the 1980s led to his repeated arrest. Ghannouchi chose voluntary exile in 1989. In 1992, a Tunisian court sentenced him in absentia to life imprisonment, for plotting to overthrow the Tunisian government.
Ghannouchi arrived in Britain in November 1991, and requested political asylum. The Tunisian government objected, but members of the Muslim community in Britain took up Ghannouchi’s cause, and he was granted asylum in August 1993.
America: “Enemy of Islam”
Ghannouchi visited the United States in December 1989, when he attended Islamic conferences in Chicago and Kansas City. At the time, he impressed some as a “moderate” Islamist, amenable to dialogue. But this reading of Ghannouchi was completely overturned by his reaction to Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait.
Ghannouchi not only denounced King Fahd of Saudi Arabia for the “colossal crime” of inviting the U.S. to deploy forces, he also fully justified Saddam’s invasion and annexation of Kuwait. Ghannouchi compared Saddam to Yusuf Ibn Tashfin, the 11th-century Almoravid ruler who forcibly unified the Muslim principalities of Spain in order to wrest them from Christian domination. According to Ghannouchi, the Muslims now faced “Crusader America,” the “enemy of Islam,” and Saddam had taken a necessary step toward unity, “joining together two Arab states out of twenty-two, praise be to God.”1 Although other Islamists criticized Saudi Arabia, none embraced Saddam as fervently as Ghannouchi.
Ghannouchi also threatened the United States. Speaking in Khartoum during the crisis, he said, “There must be no doubt that we will strike anywhere against whoever strikes Iraq … We must wage unceasing war against the Americans until they leave the land of Islam, or we will burn and destroy all their interests across the entire Islamic world… Muslim youth must be serious in their warning to the Americans that a blow to Iraq will be a license to strike American and Western interests throughout the Islamic world.” He also called for a Muslim boycott of American goods, planes and ships....