Felipe Calderón’s War: It’s Time for a Serious Debate

[sinjefe]

This is another article by Kevin Casas-Zamora that argues that the murder rate in Mexico ought to be reason enough to re-look the Calderon strategy:

http://www.brookings.edu/articles/2010/1230_mexico_drug_war_casaszamora.aspx

Another, well-reasoned argument putting on display Calderon's ineptness.

[CombatMuffin]

Thank you for the article, Sir. That was perhaps the best written article I've read about the drug war, yet. It split the points quite clearly.

Its clear that as long as organized crime in Mexico continues to penetrate the country's institutions (down to the marrow), it will be impossible to achieve change.

Mexicans don't have a military culture that I know of, and that lack of trust also hurts the process, because I can't think of someone doing his job properly if the people he or she serves for, don't respect them. In general, mexicans seem to respect the military because they have guns, not because of what they do every day for them. This, in my opinion, just helps to reduce the general interest in udnerstanding what the army is doing, how they are doing it, and what they are trying to achieve.

I fear that after Calderon is out of office, violence will dramatically decrease in the country, not because the next President erradicated it, but because he will probably negotiate it. It won't solve the underlying problem, it will just look good in statistics and newspapers.

[mark46th]

I am amused that he assumes the murder rate will go down if the military backs off. Look at it like the diversion of North Vietnamese troops caused by the use of the montagnards in Laos and Cambodia. As soon as they don't have to use their men to fight the Mexican Government, they can really get serious about killing each other. After Pol Pot wasn't occupied with the Americans and Khmer loyalists, he really got down to business...

Does he think the cartels won't?

[sinjefe]

There is a bit of a difference between Mexico and Southeast Asia. Pol Pot wanted to take Cambodia and was organized. Mexican DTOs aren't organized and don't want to be in charge. He argues that the murder rate went up precisely because of Calderon's pursuit of them and he has a fair amount of history to back that up. These organizations have been around, pretty much in the form they are now, for decades and it hasn't been until Vicente Fox and Calderon, both members of the PAN party, took power. Mexico is corrupt and it is embedded in their culture. For better or worse (for Mexico) the PRI had a "leave us alone and we'll leave you alone" mentality. It sucked for the US, because there was little Mexican drug interdiction, but not so much for Mexicans. Thus, the only real solution is to let Mexico be Mexico and militarize our Southwest border.