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NousDefionsDoc
08-10-2004, 21:36
From Front Page Mag
Connecting the South American Terror Dots
By David Meir-Levi FrontPageMagazine.com | August 9, 2004
Dot # 1: A Growing Threat in the Tri-Border Area of South America. (Terrorist and Organized Crime Groups in the Tri-Border Area (TBA) of South America. A Report Prepared under an Interagency Agreement by the Federal Research Division, Library of Congress, July 2003.)
Since the early 1980’s, Arab terrorists have been sending thousands of their cohorts to the almost inaccessible jungle and mountain region between Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay (known as the TBA, Tri-Border Area or La Triple Frontera). Terror training camps and arsenals have been established, virtually out of the reach of local law enforcement or defense forces; and elements from Hezbollah, al-Gama’a al-Islamiyya, Islamic Jihad, al-Qaeda, Hamas, and the Lebanese Drug mafia operate in partnership, freely and openly in conjunction with local organized crime and corrupt government officials.
The TBA has become a virtual haven for Islamic terror groups and a base for terror operations against South American targets. The large and growing Arab population of these states (in excess of 750,000 by local estimates) provides a community highly conducive to the establishment of Islamic terrorist sleeper cells throughout the area. The attacks in Buenos Aires on the Israeli embassy (3/17/1992) and the Jewish Community Center (7/18/1994) are believed to have originated from terror bases in the TBA. Since the mid-90’s, government forces have foiled many more terror attacks against American, Jewish and Israeli targets, arresting some of the perpetrators.
CNN reported that an Islamic terrorist summit meeting was held in the TBA in late 2002, to plot attacks in South America and abroad. Security forces believe that future targets include USA and Israeli government offices, Jewish community buildings, hotels, tourism centers, airports and facilities of multinational corporations.
The TBA terrorist haven also operates an immense money-laundering project, reaping profits from their partnerships with the FARC and narcotics traffickers in the widespread South American drug trade. Government estimates place the total amount of money laundered since 1992 at more than 172 billion dollars.
There is currently no effective surveillance or containment of these terrorist activities.
Dot #2: Increased Terrorism in northern Venezuela (U.S. News & World Report, 10/6/03, pp. 18ff.)
Another South American hub of Arab terrorism has emerged recently in northern Venezuela near the border with Colombia. Thousands of terrorists now occupy an unknown number of camps in that region, and move about with the support and collaboration of the Venezuelan government. President Hugo Chavez plays host to a growing horde of Middle Eastern terrorists from some of the USA’s most notorious enemies, including Libya, Saddam’s Iraq, Syria, Egypt and Pakistan. Thousands of Venezuelan identity cards have been legally issued to these foreigners. Such cards can be used to obtain legal travel documents and passports for unimpeded entry into other South American countries and into the USA.
These terror groups are known to work in conjunction with the Colombian anti-government insurgency group, FARC. They offer FARC terrorists safe haven in mountainous and unpatrolled regions of Northeastern Venezuela. They may provide Hugo Chavez with a covert force that can be used to support FARC against the Colombian government. Venezuelan cooperation with these terrorists may buy President Chavez a guarantee that terror assaults will not be perpetrated in his country.
Currently there are no known terror attacks that can be attributed to these groups.
Dot #3: Illegal Immigration at the Southern Border…Not Just Hispanics, Anymore. (“U.S. seizes 77 Mideastern aliens in southern Arizona,” World Tribune, 8/2/04; “Two groups of middle-eastern invaders caught in Cochise county in past six weeks,” Tombstone Tumbleweed, 7/18/04; “Breaking silence over possible terror threat,” Defense Watch, 7/23/04.)
American border patrol agents arrested 158 illegal aliens in Cochise County, Arizona, on 6/13/04. One agent, who speaks Farsi and Arabic, overheard dozens of detainees speaking Arabic in the back of the detention vehicle. He counted 53 of Middle Eastern rather than Hispanic origin. His superiors told him to keep that information to himself; but he reported it to the local newspaper, the Tombstone Tumbleweed.
Just one week later, on June 21, 2004, another group of illegals were apprehended, including 24 Arabic speaking men. But at least as many or more escaped apprehension and disappeared into the United States.
Border Patrol officials deny that there have been any Middle Eastern illegals among those arrested, but individual arresting officers attest to the accuracy of that ethnic description.
Upon deeper investigation, the Tumbleweed editor learned that since October 1, 2003, Arizona border patrol agents have arrested 5,510 illegals from countries other than Mexico, Central and South America. In addition, the arresting officers noted that all of the Middle Eastern illegals sported identical haircuts and moustaches; and while their clothes were the typical illegal immigrant jeans, baseball caps and jerseys, the Middle Easterners all wore brand new clothes, still spiffy looking and clean (quite the opposite of the usual rather frazzled appearance of illegals).
NousDefionsDoc
08-10-2004, 21:37
Connecting the Dots:
We are witness to expanding Islamic terrorist bases in South America, operating with almost no interference from, or in collaboration with, the host countries’ governments; thousands of Arab terrorists training in these bases; and credible evidence that hundreds or even thousands of Arabic speaking illegals have been entering the USA through our porous border with Mexico for almost a year. Given the Border Patrol leadership’s refusal to divulge the ethnic or national identities of the 5,510 non-Hispanic detainees, we cannot know how many of these thousands are Arabs.
Why would Middle Eastern terror groups spend untold millions of dollars to set up bases in South America? Certainly to benefit from the drug trade and money-laundering opportunities that lax or corrupt governments afford. Clearly, to attack South American targets (inter alia, Israeli or American embassies, Jewish communities, and/or other institutions that are involved in South American financial, political, or military interaction with the USA). Probably also to facilitate the planning and execution of future terror attacks in South America or abroad.
Why would Arabs enter the United States in such large numbers? At least some of them are likely bona fide terrorists who, once they have eluded the Border Patrol, can connect with established contacts in the American Muslim community and lay the groundwork for future terror attacks within this country. It takes a minimum of five “support-staff” to launch one terrorist action. How many terror attacks can we expect, now that we know now that hundreds or perhaps thousands of Arab terrorists have entered this country illegally during the past year, and are completely untraceable by law enforcement or military agencies.
Why would hundreds of these Arab terrorists sneak into America illegally via the Mexican border? The credible scenarios are:
These Arabs are known terrorists who could not enter in a simpler and more direct fashion, via our legal ports of entry; or…
The terror planners and strategists foresee that if our legal ports of entry were suddenly flooded with dozens or hundreds of entrants recognizable as Arabs but bearing legal South American travel documents, our immigration officials might get suspicious.
Thus, to infiltrate very large numbers of terrorists into the United States in anticipation of future massive terror assaults, it would be necessary to create a base for the invaders in neighboring safe areas from which large numbers of terrorists could be transported en masse.
Questions:
Why do the official spokespersons for the Border Patrol in Arizona refuse to acknowledge what their field force tells us? Surely corroboration by several different guards on different occasions warrants public concern.
Why are Border Patrol guards instructed to keep silent about the presence of Arabs and Iranians among the many thousands of non-Hispanic illegal aliens? Surely this unusual and alarming phenomenon merits the scrutiny of the Border Patrol’s leadership.
Why have no mainstream media outlets publicized this infiltration of terrorists into our country? Surely such a phenomenon is newsworthy.
Conclusion:
Once we connect these dots, it becomes obvious that the presence of thousands of Arab terrorists in two separate areas of South America and the illegal entry of hundreds of Arabs via the Mexican border portend massive terror assaults against American and other targets in South America and within this nation.
It does not require much imagination to foresee that the many current Arab terror sleeper cells scattered throughout the USA and Canada today are being re-enforced with the influx of Arab terrorists from South America, an influx of such numbers that normal ports of entry cannot be used.
Can the purpose of this re-enforcement be other than an Arab terrorist plan to mount major attacks on numerous targets throughout North America? Such imaginative terror masterminds as Imad Mughniyyah or Osama bin Laden himself would surely have little difficulty figuring out how to best utilize an untraceable sleeper army of Arab terrorists waiting patiently for the signal to strike at centers of telecommunication, transportation, electric power, and even law enforcement and military bases.
http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/ReadArticle.asp?ID=14557
Jack Moroney (RIP)
08-11-2004, 07:06
I thought that all the Arabs in South America, with their vast expertise in dealing with camels, were brought in to help save the llamas and alpacas from extinction. You mean that their trek up through Central America and into the desert southwest is not an effort to determine how camelid species got from Asia to South America? I am shocked! Next someone is going to tell me that the IRA folks that went to Colombia to look for a new species of Shamrocks were actually there to help train the FARC in bomb making. :confused:
Jack Moroney
Vanguard. Do you think LatAm is the new Astan or Somalia?
Thank you,
Solid
Airbornelawyer
08-11-2004, 09:57
There does not appear to be a working link to the Library of Congress report. It may be found here (it is a 90-page PDF): http://lcweb.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/TerrOrgCrime_TBA.pdf
Here is also an article in Spanish from the July-August 2002 edition of Military Review: La Triple Frontera: Principal Foco de Inseguridad en el Cono Sur Americano (http://www.leavenworth.army.mil/milrev/Spanish/JulAug02/bartolome.htm).
Both the FrontPage piece and the Library of Congress piece have some holes that cause me to be skeptical that there is large-scale terrorist infiltration going on. First, they routinely conflate Arab and Muslim. My understanding is that most Arabs in South and Central America are Christians, mainly from Lebanon, while most of the region's Muslims are originally from British India.
The TBA itself has a population of about 700,000, of whom about 240,000 live in Ciudad del Este, Paraguay and up to 300,000 in Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil. According to the LoC study, the Arab population in the TBA is 20,000 to 30,000, of whom it is estimated that 90% are Lebanese. The LoC study then goes on to talk about how "tightly knit" the Arab community is, especially in Foz do Iguaçu, "making outside penetration very difficult." From there, it concludes that "[t]he cultural and social demographics of Ciudad del Este and Foz do Iguaçu make an ideal operations base for Arabic-speaking terrorist or criminal groups." From there it goes to talking about the general Muslim population in Argentina and Brazil.
But there are two gaping logical holes here. First, if the Arab community in the TBA is, like most Lebanese in South America, overwhelmingly Christian, and not welcoming to outsiders, it is not an ideal environment for "Arabic-speaking terrorist ... groups" who are Islamist (though it may be an ideal place for "Arabic-speaking ... criminal groups" such as Lebanese mafias).
Second, if the Muslim population of South America is mainly from the Indian subcontinent, Arabic speakers are not going to be at home there either. They can operate better there, of course, as has been the case in other non-Arab Muslim communities such as Pakistan's NWFP and Afghanistan, but they are still fish out of water, not swimming in a Maoist sea.
There is a Muslim Arab community in the TBA of course, and one that, to judge by Foz do Iguaçu's mosque, is not poor. The mosque was built in 1983, reportedly from locally raised funds, but I would not be surprised to find a connection to Saudi-funded mosque building as we have seen elsewhere. However, one other thing jumps out to me. The Muslim community is of Syrian-Lebanese extraction, which would make it mainly Shi'ite (hence some links to Lebanon's Hizbullah). This mosque appears to be Sunni. If, as other sources have stated, Muslims make up about 10% of Brazils Arabs, and there are about 20,000 Arabs in Foz do Iguaçu, there are roughly 2,000 Muslim Arabs. Of these, less than half are Sunni. This may explain why in a November 2001 piece in The Economist, Ali Said Rahal, president of the Islamic Centre in Foz do Iguaçu, said only about 200 people attend Friday prayers at the mosque (he estimated the total Muslim population in the Foz area at 10,000).
So, absent better facts, while the relative lawlessness of the region means it may be a region where criminal groups and terrorists may move in and out of, I find it hard to credit the notion that the region is comparable to the Bekaa Valley or Afghanistan as a flourishing site for terrorist training camps and major-league infiltration.
NousDefionsDoc
08-11-2004, 10:49
Unfortunately, the demographic information for these people is very scarce. Since they are mostly merchants, nobody ever really paid attention to them. In addition, I think some people feel a little left out in this part of the world and may be trying to get the US involved in solving their problems by jumping on the band wagon.
Having said all that, this is one part of the world where they are still relatively free to conduct their activities, whatever they may be, without having a lot of attention focused on them.
Jack Moroney (RIP)
08-11-2004, 12:24
Originally posted by NousDefionsDoc
Unfortunately, the demographic information for these people is very scarce. Since they are mostly merchants, nobody ever really paid attention to them.
While I can only talk of one country in West Africa with any degree of expertise, the same was true of this country. All the shop owners were arab/muslim in this non muslim country. Their profits were not put back into the country but sent to the homeland. You knew they were all linked because as one or another event that might put them in jeopardy took place all the shops would close as close to simultaneously as possible. Because they performed a valuable service for the country no one bothered them and once outside their shops they were basically invisible. I have no doubt that they worked clandestine nets in support of one another and in one case that targeted the little group I was with, in support of another country that had designs on overthrowing the government in power.
Jack Moroney
Originally posted by Solid
Vanguard. Do you think LatAm is the new Astan or Somalia?
Thank you,
Solid
No. Look into 'failed states'.
Take the analysis another step. If you agree the reports are correct from the TBA and Venezuela, what should be done?
Certainly if there is no or little threat then we don't have to worry about it and go back to our focus in the ME and FE. Some of my thoughts on this issue are still developing and will be influenced by events within the next few weeks.
NousDefionsDoc
08-11-2004, 13:54
Latin America has a fairly good history of responding well over the long term to multi-disciplinary stabilization operations. In the Tri-border, Brazil is the key. In the north, Colombia is the foothold (I can't believe I just wrote that). Unfortunately I think we have ignored much of the area since the Reagan admin, not entirely without cause. I think its time to spend a little effort and resources before it becomes a big problem again.
Keep helping Colombia, do everything possible to help Venezuela get rid of Chavez - without playing any silly games. Do everything reasonably possible to befriend Brazil. Watch the area like a hawk. Continue to provide aid and assistance to the armed forces and police of the borderline states.
Get better at tracking funds and people moving into and out of conflict areas from LATAM. Most of these countries work with archaic immigration systems (of course ours isn't much better).
Arms trafficking needs to carry the same penalties as drug trafficking.
Cancel the embargo on Cuba and let Castro fade away under the McDonald's lights. There is still a lot of resentment over that on the Latin left.
And understand that there are going to be socialist governments in some of the places and there's nothing to be done about it.
NDD. According to our friends across the Bearing Straight, our CIA has things under control. Read below.
I think we have discussed this situation elsewhere, but it looks pretty good for Chavez.
http://english.pravda.ru/world/20/91/368/13717_chavez.html
CIA controls political situation in Latin America
08/11/2004 13:04
The CIA is preparing a plan to overthrow the Venezuelan president
On August 15th citizens of Venezuela are going to decide, if they want President Hugo Chavez to resign. The controversy is gathering steam as the voting day is drawing near. Numerous pro and anti-Chavez meetings have swept over the country recently. Local authorities control the situation, although clashes in several cities were not possible to avoid.
Spanish newspaper El Mundo published a front-page article on Monday. The CIA, the newspaper wrote, is preparing a plan to overthrow the Venezuelan president, if Chavez keeps his power after the referendum.
According to the newspaper, CIA's deputy director of the Western hemisphere department William Spencer is currently in Chile, conducting consultations with chairmen of special services of Columbia, Ecuador, Brazil and Peru.
The CIA administration believes Hugo Chavez's government is trying to create two centers of the anti-imperialist revolution in South America - in Colombia and Bolivia. According to the US intelligence, the so-called dominos principle is expected to occur in the region after the situation in the countries is destabilized. As a result, the revolutionary movement is likely to seize Peru and Ecuador, where anti-governmental sentiments are especially strong.
The CIA is also concerned with Brazil and Argentina - the two countries also stand out for anti-American sentiments, RIA Novosti reports.
A senior American source in the Chilean capital told El Mundo in an interview the US Department of the Treasury would fund the CIA's plan, which would use the Pentagon's support when it needs to.
Chavez has been repeatedly accused of interfering in the affairs of neighboring states. A serious scandal occurred between Venezuela and Colombia 18 months ago. The Colombian authorities accused the Chavez's government of supporting the rebels of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). Officials of the US State Department said the Venezuelan president rendered considerable financial help to the leftist candidate for the post of the Bolivian president Evo Morales. The latter won the election in October 2003. There was no convincing evidence presented, however, to prove Chavez's implication in the events in Colombia and Bolivia.
It goes without saying the US administration would not bother about the events in Venezuela. However, it is the largest oil exporter in the Western hemisphere and a leading OPEC member. American officials believe Chavez's policy destabilizes the situation in Latin America. Washington will do its best not to let South America slip out of the USA's control.
On the other hand, it is not ruled out the CIA will not have to use the plan to remove Chavez from his position. About 3.5 million votes from 14 million registered voters will be enough to make the Venezuelan president step down. The opposition is capable of winning this amount of votes. Otherwise, Chavez will stay at power until January 10th 2007, if he is allowed to, of course.
Vasily Bubnov
NousDefionsDoc
08-11-2004, 14:27
Utter BS.
Originally posted by NousDefionsDoc
Utter BS.
I agree with your analysis above; especially in regards to keeping tabs on the flow of money and people into and out of the area. The only way to do this is to work with Lula and his counterparts in the region. They have a vested interest in keeping those radicals out of their backyard.
BTW did you hear the Wall Street Journal is proclaiming victory for the Colombian Govt in the "civil war?" Now you can always take that road trip you always wanted to scenic Mitu.
:rolleyes:
Jimbo:
Two of the articles I read on Failed States defined them (nonverbatim) as states which lacked C2 over large portions of their nation, either geographically or demographically. None listed any of LatAm as being a failed state.
Assuming, which may not be true, that the TBA represents a significant area which none of the three countries have C2 over, wouldn't it be possible that while none of the states are per se failed or failing, that the TBA itself constitutes a threat similar to that of a failed state because government authority over, and knowledge of, the area is poor to none?
I'm more wondering if the above situation is theoretically possible in any location than disputing the point.
Thank you,
Solid
No. The original name of Cuidad del Este was Puerto Flor de Lis which was renamed Puerto Presidente Stroessner. One of the reasons for its creation was as a transit point for the Paraguayan black market, from which Stroessner greatly benefited. Because it is such an important trade zone, there is considerable government presence there.
Now if you wanted to look at free trade zones all over the world and look at the amount of illicit activity that terrorists harness in those areas... you could start with Colon, Panama.
It seems to me that the Cuidad del Este is far more geographically inaccessible and much harder to monitor than the Free Trade Zone in Colon. Wouldn't that be a key factor in the establishment of, for example, an AQ training base?
Thank you,
Solid
Originally posted by Solid
It seems to me that the Cuidad del Este is far more geographically inaccessible and much harder to monitor than the Free Trade Zone in Colon. Wouldn't that be a key factor in the establishment of, for example, an AQ training base?
Thank you,
Solid
Could be. But if you were an unsavory type making buckets of cash, would you want to attract the authorities by shooting a lot of guns in the jungle?
The Reaper
08-11-2004, 18:31
Personally, based on my time there, Ciudad del Este is one of the major smuggling cities in South America.
Combined with the near total corruption of the many officials there, it is an ideal place to conduct any sort of illicit activity.
TR
That's true. It would be good to have some proximity to arms flows and money flows, though (IMO). I can't find any information on where the training camps in Afghanistan or Somalia were, which makes it hard to estimate whether a base in or near Cuidad del Este would be of use. I need to develop far better resources.
Solid
There were also traning camps in Sudan. Sudan, Somalia and Afghanistan were failed states (2 still are).
In comparison to, say, the Astan Pakistan border area, how hard would the TBA be to militarily interdict in your opinions?
Thank you,
Solid
Airbornelawyer
08-12-2004, 09:55
My earlier point was that while the TBA is the kind of place conducive for a range of illicit activities, it is not the kind of environment where AQ or other Arab Muslim terrorists would be able to set up shop. In Syria, Lebanon's Bekaa Valley, Afghanistan, Sudan and Somalia, you had or have sympathetic persons with political power (Islamist regimes and/or local tribal leaders) to provide a level of protection. In Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Yemen (as well as the aforementioned Syria and the Bekaa Valley), you have ethnic ties (including in many cases your own families and tribes) and Arabs do not stand out as much. The Muslim Arab population of the TBA is relatively small and local government leaders may be corrupt, but they are not supportive of the terrorists' ideology as the Taliban and Sudan's Islamists were.
Notwithstanding that, assuming such a thing did happen, and an Afghanistan-like series of camps were set up, you have several consideratrions. First, as noted, you can't count on a great deal of support from corrupt local officials. Second, you need the cooperation of three countries. As we see in Afghanistan, and as fits the classic guerrilla model, having the ability to move across borders and find sanctuary is important. Argentina may be the strongest link here - Muslims and Arabs already say they do not feel comfortable on the Argentinian side of the border due to surveillance by Argentinian law enforcement and intelligence. Paraguay is weak because it is a weak state, but Brazil may be the biggest problem. While Lula is not sympathetic to Islamism, he is certainly sympathetic to anti-Americanism. He wouldn't provide the kind of sanctuary that Mullah Omar would, but I would not count on his government going out of its way to help the US.
NousDefionsDoc
08-12-2004, 11:04
I don't think there are camps, I don't think they are living in the jungle. I think the presence is commercial: drugs for gold for arms for drugs for gold. There have been reports of Iraqi money paper showing up in the AO and being used to counterfiet dollars. Maybe places to hide out in the open for the most wanted, that kind of thing.
Albeit a socialist/communist by ideology, Lula is not an idiot or fool; therefore I don't see any complicity on his part in regards to either active or passive support for Islamic radicals. In fact, he has been rather pragmatic in his policies thus, I suspect he would be more concerned about it then we would.
Airbornelawyer
08-12-2004, 13:20
My point is that his cooperation would be limited. For instance, while Brazilian police and military forces might be deployed to secure the region, there seems no likelihood that US forces would be permitted to operate on the Brazilian side of the border. Of course, Argentina doesn't have the most pro-US government these days either.
Also, although this may be a gross over-generalization, one thing I have noticed working with troops from Arab countries is that they don't like jungles. I would expect any AQ or Hizbullah types hanging out in the region to try to merge into the local Arab urban populations. And, as noted, since the most hospitable parts of the population are rather small, the number of terrorists able to hide there is correspondingly small.
Essentially, I see the environment there as closer to a lawless Dearborn, Michigan, Hamburg, Germany or the banlieus of Paris - a place where smaller terrorist cells might be able to set up safe houses, raise money, buy weapons or make smuggling contacts to move elsewhere in the region - rather than like Afghanistan's White Mountains - a place to set up training camps and a larger infrastructure. That affects in part the tactical approach, and makes the likelier scenarios more of a law enforcement and intelligence operation than a military operation.
NousDefionsDoc
08-12-2004, 13:52
The Brazilian government is not in control of large portions of Brazil.
Originally posted by NousDefionsDoc
The Brazilian government is not in control of large portions of Brazil.
Yea like good portions of Rio:rolleyes: