View Full Version : US Debt Clock
May be of interest to those daring enough to take a peek at the debt monster looming over our collective heads...draging the cursor over the various windows cites sources.
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
And so it goes...
Richard :munchin
Gee...you sure know how to brighten a guy's day...:mad::p
GratefulCitizen
09-25-2010, 15:07
The "US Total Debt" number was declining all summer.
It started going back up some time in the past couple weeks.
The deflation risks seem to have passed.
Interest rates should start rising.
The Debt to GDP ratio towards the end of 07 was roughly ~ 38% and now it’s what, 64%
It’s all Bush’s fault…
16647
The deflation risks seem to have passed.
Interest rates should start rising.
How reliable is John Williams :confused:
I wonder which set of book are relative to the debt clock...........
6.8SPC_DUMP
09-27-2010, 17:12
How reliable is John Williams :confused:
Mr. Williams has had the reputation of being more accurate with economic reporting than the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Commerce, ect, for around 25 years. He started breaking down and correcting their models as a private consulting economist for companies who used the gov. figures in their own formulas and found the calculations weren’t accurate.
He explains the changing standards of inflation reporting here under Special Consumer Inflation Focus (http://www.shadowstats.com/article/aa871).
Williams’ economic forecasting is based on his adjusted data and focuses on the leading indicators that have a historically strong track-record for predicting economic or financial changes. He is still sought after by companies (including banks) for it.
He predicted BHO would win in ’08 based on the following, but it also says a lot about us as voters and explains some politician’s disincentive to balance the budget:
In every presidential race since 1908, in which consistent, real (inflation-adjusted) annual disposable income growth was above 3.3%, the incumbent party holding the White House won every time. When income growth was below 3.3%, the incumbent party lost every time. Again, with redefinitions to the national income accounts in the last two decades, a consistent measure of disposable income as reported by the government has disappeared. Yet, even with official reporting, the current annual growth in real disposable income is at 2.2%, well below the traditional 3.3% limit. Link (http://www.shadowstats.com/article/hyperinflation)
It turns out what’s more important than the Debt-to-GDP ratio is the revenue-to-spending ratio. Peter Bernholz found that every country which barrowed over 40% of what it spent over a long enough went into hyperinflation eventually. We were over 40% for the first time in ’09 and will be again this year. OTOH Japan has been for 8 or so years so it’s really hard to time. Or maybe history won’t repeat itself.
Thanks for the goouge 6.8SPC DUMP. I'm pretty clueless concerning economic stuff and found the the 2010 hyperinflation special report on his site to be chilling (shudder) :(
drymartini66
09-27-2010, 19:10
May be of interest to those daring enough to take a peek at the debt monster looming over our collective heads...draging the cursor over the various windows cites sources.
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
And so it goes...
Richard :munchin
Yep, we're broke.:mad:
drymartini66
09-27-2010, 19:28
Another big thing is how much of the federal budget has to go towards servicing the debt (paying the interest). I read that if it goes beyond around 40%, then we could see the country's debt downgraded, which would probably be devastating.
Japan's debt is something like 200% of the GDP though, and they are the second-largest economy, so I think we should have some time to fix things. Greece's is around 113% last I read, but they are broke.
It's a matter of when and not if when the downgrade comes.:mad: