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Solid
08-02-2004, 06:36
Reading material-
The Weinberger Doctrine (http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/1992/MCF.htm)

Dr. Record's argument against the Doctrine (http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/apj/apj00/sum00/record.htm)

The Weinberger Doctrine is comprised of three 'tests' or criteria which must be fulfilled for the US to go to commit her forces.
1. The objective is critical to US national interests or that of her allies.
2. Overwhelming force will be used.
3. Objectives are clearly defined.
4. Assets committed must be dynamically tailored to the objectives.
5. The action must have the support of the American people.
6. The commitment of US forces must be a last resort.

If the above is taken to be the WP Doctrine, is this doctrine appropriate for deliberating the commitment of US forces in combat?

Several questions occurred to me when reading through both links, posted by TR on another thread (thank you.). I would appreciate discussing them.

1. The WP doctrine requires wars to be legitimate, or supported by the people. What determines popular support? The average citizen is politically ignorant. He is therefore susceptible to propaganda from both the government (we assume pro-war) and media (we assume anti-war). Dr. Record's article suggests that the US population can stomach more deaths than its political masters. Is this the case? He lists actions including LIC, WMD policing, and full war, each with their corresponding appropriate casualty rates as determined by the military and civilian elites and then the normal citizen. The report, however, does not factor in the effects of propaganda. The military and civilian elites, with lower casualty allowances than the third group, seem less likely to be effected by propaganda either for or against the war. The average citizen, however, seems to be most effected by propaganda, especially, given the changing opinion polls on OIF, anti-war propaganda originating from the news-media. While it seems important to fight only legitimate wars, to what extent should legitimacy be a factor, considering how easily influenced it is? Many argue that LIC will be a large factor in warfare in the coming years. Low Intensity Conflict tends to be prolonged, involve slow and less numerous deaths, occurs in areas where US interests are not necessarily immediately clear, and require large amounts of money. These factors seem to be easily propagandised by the media, and the war therefore easily becomes less popular amongst the people and therefore less legitimate. If LIC features heavily in American military activity in the future, is the WP Doctrine appropriate?

2. If ‘winning’ an action is taken as fulfilling all objectives, Dr. Record suggests that the WP Doctrine is vague and therefore inappropriate in its requirement of clearly defined objectives simply because they are so likely to change during the course of the action. I am reminded of the Battle of the Black Sea in Somalia. The primary objective of this operation was the capture of several tier-two individuals. In the initial part of the engagement, these individuals were captured and eventually delivered to Task Force Ranger’s Headquarters and taken into official custody. This mission would therefore be considered successful- it was won. However, during the mission two helicopters were shot down, and their crash-sites had to be secured. War had imposed its own dynamic influence on military objectives. One crash site was secured, the second was secured only after one of the pilots had been taken prisoner and the bodies of several American soldiers brutalised in the streets. The objectives had changed and one of them was not met. Militarily, the mission was a success. The military anticipates loss of life. However, the political masters and the public did not focus on the same objectives that the military focused on- instead, they saw (on the news) American bodies being brutalised and heard of an American being held hostage. They declared the operation a failure, and TF Ranger was withdrawn later in the year. The WP Doctrine does not specify which objectives should be paid attention to. Based on this example, an action was lost not because of military losses, but because the public saw it as lost. This harks back to the question of public support and how easily influenced, and significant, it is. The public are not soldiers- why should they and their non-military political masters be able to determine when an action is completed, won, or lost?

3. Where does Low Intensity Conflict fit in? In Larry Cable’s Conflict of Myths, which analyses the roots of the failures in the Indochina conflict, he mentions that in the Malay insurgency, ‘the principle of minimum force governed all military operations’. When winning hearts and minds, he implies, minimum force is often the more appropriate strategy. This often means relying on limited, infantry oriented assets being deployed with at most Close Air Support. This, in many cases, forfeits US military technological advantages. First, it seems that the WP Doctrine disagrees entirely with the deployment of such limited forces. Secondly, by forfeiting the US technological advantages the potential for US casualties is potentially increased. As the WP Doctrine requires actions to be legitimate and legitimacy seems to correlate inversely to casualty rates, is LIC even viable under the WP Doctrine? One answer to this may be fighting covert wars, but why should the WP Doctrine force a specific kind of war to be fought covertly? Why is it not appropriate for ALL kinds of conflict, especially given the LIC seems to be one of the major forms of future conflict?

4. Finally, the WP Doctrine implies that US forces will be committed to war only once their use as a deterrent fails- War is seen as the final option. This, however, assumes that the state actors which the US is challenging are rational. Increasingly, it appears that either these state actors (Hussein, Milosevic, Kim Il Sung etcetera) are not rational or that they see the US as a paper tiger. Either way, it seems that there are times when US forces must be deployed as a primary option as their deterrent effects will be negligible. In fact, by deploying US forces in this manner in appropriate situations, the deterrence effect of US forces will most likely increase when dealing with other state actors.


JMO, I wanted to get the ball rolling. I hope I haven’t overstepped my bounds.

Thank you,

Solid

Jack Moroney (RIP)
08-02-2004, 07:35
I think you are mixing apples and oranges in part of your analysis. There are three levels normally considered when planning military operations: Strategic, Operational and Tactical. While you can lose the battle (Tactical) you may or may not fail in the particular campaign (operational) and the overall reason for the commitment of troops in support of critical national interests (strategic) may in fact be supported by the loss of the particular action.

I know that this sounds like convoluted logic but you need to look at this subject in it proper context. It all starts with the proper and correct identification of what exactly our national interests are and which of those interests are vital to our survival as a nation. The elements of national power that are applied to achieve, maintain, or defend those interests can normally be catagorized at economic, psychological/informational, diplomatic, and military. The military aspect of this is normally not the element of choice and is most likely the element in support of the others.

The problem then, is not necessarily Wineberger, Powells or anyone else doctrine in how and when to employ the military. The problem is the correct identification of what those national interests are and the education of the public and congress critters as to why those constitute our national interest. When you cannot get agreement on what is important to the survival of a nation than how can you expect anyone to develop a viable doctrine for the use of the military.

Let me put this complicated issue another way. When you cannot leverage the attainment of your national interests thru economic, diplomatic or psycholocial means and are left only with the military to correct your mistakes or shore up your interests even the military aspect of national power becomes mismanaged and overstretched. Our goverment runs like business cycles and is sort of predictable in four year increments. If you have a military strategy that depends on the political election cycle for implementation rather than the sound application of strategic and operational imperatives you have a problem. Additionally, when you use the military as a political tool to support your partys position for the purpose of getting elected or maintaining party power the military will never be able to effectively use the tools it has at its disposal. The American folks are an impatient lot and want results today not tomorrow. For that reason, and others, you will find,for instance, that some problems that could be addressed with the application of unconventional warfare over the long term and outside the view of public scrutiny might never see the light of day. We live in a society where our politicians feel that they must be able to take credit for whatever is going on even at the expense of our troops who always pay the price of their folly in blood. I think you can take anyone's "doctrine" in the "proper use" of the military and shoot the crap out of it in terms of what your understanding is of the country's national interest. Unfortunately in defining national interests petty agendas, incomplete intelligence, uniformed decision makers, and just plain ignorance about what makes this country tick come into play and while we can always "vote the bastards out" there is a troop out there in harms way fighting for his buddy on his left and right in support of a decision made not necessarily for anyone's interest other than the politicians who forget for whom they serve.

Jack Moroney

Solid
08-02-2004, 07:45
Thank you for that post. Would you agree, however, that sometimes the outcome of a battle can influence the outcome of a campaign and then the national interest? This is part of my worry about public support and the effects of a media. It seems that a relatively small loss these days can be magnified many times over by the media until public support is so low that the campaign is ceased and the area/action loses its position in terms of national interest.

Solid

The Reaper
08-02-2004, 08:17
PEARL HARBOR, 7 DEC 1941

Tactical - Total defeat, though losses occurred in a U.S. controlled anchorage, enabling easy recovery of survivors and salvage of vessels.

Operational - Defeat. Gave Imperial Navy freedom of action in the Pacific until Leyte Gulf and initiative until Midway. Interestingly, removed battleship Navy from the U.S. equation and forced acceptance of naval air power as preeminent, requiring new thinking to be successful

Strategic - Victory. Thrust U.S. into total war against the Axis, and united public sentiment in support of the war. The U.S. shut down civilian industry and converted it to war production, rationed critical items for civilian use, put over 10% of the population in uniform, and in four years, built 90.000 tanks, over 2.200.000 transport vehicles and 240.000 planes. Public sentiment supported submarine warfare against commercial shipping, conventional and firebombing of civilian targets, and deployment of two nuclear weapons against Japanese cities to end the war.

Just a few observations.

TR

Solid
08-02-2004, 09:14
TR-
Great example. However, at the time I think that the media was less anti-war and also less powerful than nowadays. Also, I think an attack on the homeland struck home more and generated a violent pro-war reaction than the loss of military assets in a distant land would.

What are your thoughts otherwise on the WP Doctrine? I'm especially interested in its compatibility with LIC, this was the reason for starting the old Powell thread.

Thank you,

Solid

Jack Moroney (RIP)
08-02-2004, 10:35
The media and the fight for public support of anything has always been a price paid for those that live in a democratic society. Unfortunately in this country those that chose to not really understand issues and rely on someone else to do their thinking for them are easily swayed by most of the media that exists to make money and neither educate or inform. It is kind of ironic, they tout their first amendment rights to publish crap and yet they will be the first ones to snivel like rats eating onions if they lost that right under something other than a democratic system. However, we also play that game with information operations that is offensive and defensive and manipulate whatever information we need to suit our needs also. This is a very powerful tool with the technology that is available today. I can hold a mock execution in one country, uplink it to some other country, and have folks believe it took place in their country, etc, etc, etc.

As to LIC, this requires and interagency/interdisciplinary effort where the military actually plays the supporting role. The problem with LIC is that until you remove the problems that are normally social in nature that are causing the insurgency, the only thing the military can do is piss off the civilians that are supporting the insurgents either directly or indirectly if their operations appear to be in support of the oppressive government programs or policies that have fed the insurgency in the first place. I realize that this is an over simplification, but I need to shut down for a while.

Jack Moroney