View Full Version : Survival: Conditions of Emergency
The attachment represents my own attempt at developing a plan, or at least an approach to a plan, for survival of an emergency situation that could happen in my community. I tried sending this back-channel to a couple of members for their comment before publishing this but could never figure out how to send an attachment via PM. I admit to being one of the rubber knives in the drawer.
I wrote this document addressing my own individual (single with dog) perspective. I offer it to the PS.com site only as it may be personnally beneficial to members. In order to make improvements, I invite comments either in this open forum or via PM or email. The opinions of the QP's subscribing to this site are invaluable resources, and I receive their comments with my humble thanks in advance.
Standing by…
Edit Note: As was pointed out by one of the members, this is my plan and not yours. Win or lose, I have to own it, and I do. Your experiences and requirements are and should be unique to serve you. Just wanted to say that. Thanks.
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The Reaper
03-19-2010, 20:04
Very interesting.
Not sure what you expect to find by bugging out vs. staying in place. Urban or suburban residents may wish to bug out, if they have a better place to go (which is prepared), and adequate warning/resources to reach it. If you return from bugging out, you should anticipate that your home has been looted, destroyed, or occupied by armed squatters.
You live in a relatively rural area, are you temporarily bugging out to a better place, and are prepared to lose your home?
As far as your plan goes, I like your graduated evacuation criteria, even if I might disagree with some of them.
If you have the ability, I would consider getting rid of the .22 revolver and .25 Colt auto. A good .22 auto pistol, like the Ruger, would, IMHO, be a much more useful weapon. Still, if you can get close enough to a deer to kill it with a .22LR, without bait, you are a better man than I. The .25 ACP is actually inferior to the .22, and the Colt is an antique. A good .380 compact pistol, like the Kel-tec, SIG, Ruger, etc. would be a much more effective hide-out gun. Even better would be a compact 9mm, like the Kahr, or a Glock.
21 cases of MREs takes up a lot of space. Unless you are bugging out in a van or a pick-up, you may want to choose something more compact and lighter. Don't forget to store them cool, and remember that they have a limited shelf life.
I would add an air mattress or ground pad to the sleeping gear in your pack.
The value of a good axe is hard to hard to beat, especially when you may have to fell or remove trees. Do not forget to add a file or large stone for sharpening it.
Remember that many things can be preserved or made palatable with salt and spices. A bag of salt and a small container or two of spices could come in handy.
I would consider possibly trading some water for fuel (or replacing some of the MREs with another can), depending on your worst case estimate of the amount needed to get to your destination.
Traps, snare wire, or fishing gear might come in handy in the field. OTOH, in my opinion, most people vastly overestimate the amount of game in an area, even without dozens of people trying to subsist on it.
Do you have any signalling gear? Tools or vehicle repair kit? A comealong?
What, no multitool?
Well thought out plan, overall.
TR
Excellent comments, TR. Making several revisions now (esp re: MREs, ground pad, edged tools, etc). Each comment is critical and very much appreciated.
Some of my thought processes:
Re: decision to evacuate (abandon) the security of the known: The risks associated with remaining during a calamity such as civil anarchy (IMHO) could require organizing a more complex resistance effort (enlisting the support of neighbors, etc) to mount some form of organized defense. This takes time and tends one to be committed to a course of action that may be unsustainable without additional resources. Forming interdependencies with others makes the issue of indiividual survival more complex. Granted, lots of pros/cons to be (and are being)considered.
Re: firearms: The .22 revolver is a simple design. Had a .22 Ruger auto once but had brass fouling problems after a couple of magazines. Probably that individual weapon. Valid point re: .25 and have since in the plan replaced with .380 Bersa for backup (other brands you cite would be much better, but the Bersa is a bird in the hand). Re: Survival/ Papoose .22 rifle vs deer: The notion is that if I can hit a deer from a tree stand with a bow I should be able to hit a small deer from a sim distance (< 35 yds) with the Papoose. Head shot the only option, certainly. The primary virtue of the .22 is weight of ammo, compact configuration, and commonality of ammo domestically. Also, sometimes it's better to appear to be unarmed.
Goal is to survive. Evacuation in this plan is "advancement to the rear" when the only other option is surrender (a non-option).
As a general framework this is some excellent work. Of course everybody's situation is different, and we can all apply different parameters to the model to fit each scenario.
After reading through the document, I got to thinking about the fluidity of the conditions. How fast do you escalate or de-escalate a condition? Is there a process by which you change conditions? Moreover, what factors do you include in the decision making process to change a condition/plan? All these questions are semi-rhetorical, and I may be coming out of left field with them, as I am in no way a survival expert. I guess changing your plan may hinge on how much risk you are willing to accept, i.e. figuring out the consequences of altering your general course of action (which can be what-if'd to death). TR touched on that, I'm just curious what others may think about dealing with change and mitigating risk.
Good stuff!
Larry
Couple points.
I like your matrix, but as you are in a very good rural area, I think it needs tweaking..
One of the most stabilizing commodities to a disaster is "community". The fact that you have friends & family close at hand make any problem more livable. With few exceptions(atomic bomb) staying in place is advisable,, WHEN your already in a rural area.
If there are riots or Martial law is declared, your family and friends are your defensive cadre. Additionally, If there is civil unrest IN YOUR AREA, you are probable parts of it. As you stated, 500 people in a town are either going to be for or against, and you will personally know most if not all who will defend you. Again your friends & family are your support troops.
For Natural Disasters, Pandemic, & Economic problems,, again friends and family,, and in your case FARMS are the best defense. In a rural area, lower populations densities allow all resources to last longer. Also the rural area will put large green buffers between those that may carry infectious disease.
*********************
Now the one topic you did not cover,, You live in a rural area and hopefully have established a support community.
What are you going to do if the masses from the big cities come looking for food & shelter.
I am not suggesting roving bands of zombies with mini-guns mounted on their motorcycles. I am talking about starving families that need help.
Simple answer is to use claymores or foo-gas on the perimeter.
But that's not going to last more the the first wave.. At most you kill 200 maybe 300. Then what do you do with the stinking bodies?? Open up a BBQ stand??
Or enlist them in your community, make them productive, add to your resources, and capitalize upon their abilities.
Sound simple,, HELL NO.
Is it doable,, Only with a lot of work.
Do I have a plan, Yes, but much less verbose and limited to natural disasters. Which, by the by, covers just about all other problems.
In the last 14 years, living here in the Conch Republic, we have executed our plan several times. During Georges(1998) and Wilma(2005), we ended up with 24-30 inches of water covering our neighborhood. Averaged about 8 hours of flooding. Lose of power, phones, water, & services lasted 13 days & 8 days, respectively.
And after each execution, we got together with our neighbors and commiserated on the things we did correctly and what we did wrong.
We have never had zombies, but have had local looters..
We did not have pandemics but the flooding did float "stuff" out of everyone's septic tanks.
We did not encounter civil unrest, but we had our share of dummies that had no plan and thought they deserved better.
We did have a fair share of economic collapse, as this is a Tourista area, we had a hard time convincing them to return.
I think you have a great start. Involve your community. Plan more for the long duration IN PLACE. Try to limit E&E to the extreme cases. Get your dog a ruck and take him on your marches.. He needs to carry his own..
Good Luck.. My $00.0002
Excellent comments, JJ. Re: some of the points you make:
Collaboration with others: The strength/security in numbers is compelling. Organizing the needy tens/hundreds is a challenge but probably manageable with some kind of martial constabulary oversight.
SIP in a rural setting: This is also a reasonable notion except for the extreme nuclear attack or massive pandemic problems. One thing about growing your own food is the need to have it planted, or harvested and preserved before the SHTF. Timing is everything.
What I tried to consider in the draft is worse case. I figured it would be easier to back down from a "pre-planned response" if conditions allowed. If evacuation is required it's better to do it earlier than later, and that was in my mind.
Thanks very much for your comments. All are being incorporated in on going second draft work.
armymom1228
03-20-2010, 09:36
. If evacuation is required it's better to do it earlier than later, and that was in my mind.
.
That is IF you have time to evacuate.
The Reaper
03-20-2010, 12:00
JJ:
I applaud your dedication and charity, but doubt your/your rural neighbors' ability to absorb the masses that will flow out of the urban areas and your ability to get productive activity of the millions of people in this country that think everyone else owes them something (to include homes, food, cars, cell phones, protection, medical care, etc.).
Many of those you would see streaming by your location would be happy to stay, and soon be planning your demise for their own benefit. I do not see the dependent underclass adapting well to being put to hard manual labor and having harsh rules imposed to benefit the group's survival. Obviously, people could be screened and those with useful skills, like physicians, machinists, etc. could be potentially integrated, but what do you do with the 95% that you do not need/have resources for?
I have made some preparations for my family. I owe nothing to those who have chosen not to do so, and will choose to die behind my rifle before I will see my family's life shortened to feed/care for those who have not done anything to prepare themselves. Yes, I am a hard man.
If you have not read "One Second After" to get an appreciation for the post-disaster city versus country population conflict, I recommend that you do so.
Clearly, intel is everything. If you know a disaster is coming tomorrow, you are going to take that time to be much better positioned than those who do not. Having your plan prepared ahead of time, is time banked and saved for other priorities, like executing it. Mundane things like filling your car with gas, getting a prescription filled, buying a few extra days worth of groceries, getting some potable water put away, etc. could be the most important things that you ever do. The key is going to be watching events closely, maintaining SA, and taking responsible actions when your trigger events occur.
TR
JJ:
I have made some preparations for my family. I owe nothing to those who have chosen not to do so, and will choose to die behind my rifle before I will see my family's life shortened to feed/care for those who have not done anything to prepare themselves. Yes, I am a hard man.
If you have not read "One Second After" to get an appreciation for the post-disaster city versus country population conflict, I recommend that you do so.
TR
We agree,, that's why I mentioned the BBQ for the masses.
As the CR is at the end of the road, my plan currently doesn't worry about the masses. All we need to is drop a couple of the 26 connecting bridges between here and the mainland.
Unless someone swims the 40 miles South from the Everglades,, OR swims the 90 miles North from Havana, we are fairly isolated.
In fact to isolated. Our next move will be North Florida or Western Virginia. Something with 10-20 acres, water, some tillable land, and a bunker for my toys.
At which time my "plan" will evolve and may become similar to Larry's..
I said to isolated,, I'll explain. The Keys are considered a tropical desert. We only average 30 inches of rain a yr. while Miami averages around 60-80 inches. Creating potable water can be a concern..
armymom1228
03-20-2010, 12:27
As the CR is at the end of the road, my plan currently doesn't worry about the masses. All we need to is drop a couple of the 26 connecting bridges between here and the mainland.
For you... the 7 mile bridge and you are go to go..
In fact to isolated. Our next move will be North Florida or Western Virginia. Something with 10-20 acres, water, some tillable land, and a bunker for my toys.
At which time my "plan" will evolve and may become similar to Larry's..
Central Fla has both the Withlacoochee state forest and the Ocala national forest.
Both are huge tracks of uninhabited land. I know for a fact that there are houses in those places where the owners own the footprint the house is on and that is all..but when you have 500 acres surrounding you, who cares. Winters are mild. We have two growing seasons vs one in Virginia. NW fla on the panhandle has Appalachacola Nat'l Forest. Most of the land SE of that is owned by the paper companies. NNW of Cedar Key is ALL private land that is not under or most likely ever will be under developement. Small parcels can be bought and turned into a nice retirement home. Again mild winters, the availability of fresh water, salt for fishing, oysters and scallops are a plus. The "Big Bend' area of Fla traditionally never gets hurricanes. We get the edges and that, but never a direct hit in my lifetime, that would be 59 yrs. Land is so isolated and off the beaten path from US 19 that only the most determined will show up.
Am in the process of selling my share in our "commune" to a friend. I think it is just to close to civilation for my tastes anymore. I will still have anytime access to the community and should I need to take refuge, Lee's house is mine and has been made abundantly clear to me, that I am expected to show up for shelter.
JJ look around Bell, Fla and westward. Its near the Suwanee River west of Newberry and Gainesville. Easy acess to the Gainseville VA but quite rural and remote.
AM
GratefulCitizen
03-20-2010, 14:32
Tend towards making fewer plans, as general as is feasible, following principles rather than specific actions (again, where feasible).
Plans are always undergoing minor revision.
This applies towards dealing with all aspects of life, emergencies included.
Like to have 2-5(maximum of 5, prefer just 2-3) general contingencies for given general scenario, immediately executable.
For a given contingency, like to have 2-3 general sub-contingencies which are immediately executable, if necessary.
In practice, these contingencies are usually less preferred tier 1 options.
The tier 1 options are all designed to buy time.
This time would be used to figure out/adjust plans and new contingencies, given the new circumstance.
The tier 2 options are in case the tier 1 option didn't buy enough time.
They are also designed to buy time.
Find it important to buy time for revision given new circumstances.
Not so much for the reasons I can think of, but for all the reasons I can't forsee.
Best asset I have is a mind capable of making rational decisions.
Buying time allows for intel gathering and calm decisions.
ChickenMcFuggit
03-20-2010, 16:57
Larry
We have never had zombies, ..
But you concede, it COULD happen.:D
My 2 cents is just personal experience in the Coastal South Carolina area, not advice, just bringing up a war story that might be relevant. Our Emergency Management/Hurricane Evacuation plan worked beautifully last time it was used (Thank you LtC Baxley). Most everyone that was going to leave was gone from Hilton Head within around 8 hours of the Governor's orders. HH has a natural choke point as US 278 is the only road on and off the island of some 25K people in the summer. The problem occurred once they left. Our county had a plan, others didn't. Then South Carolina Highway Patrol refused to reverse one lane on I-95 and tales of it taking 4 days to reach Columbia, SC, normally a 2 and a half hour drive, were prevalent. Even with several SC Highways leading out of the county. Hotels from here to Atlanta were booked tight. The only people that made it with their sanity intact were those who were fleeing to family/friends elsewhere. Relying on commercial services became a fools errand and the government had very limited resources. The Red Cross was stretched thin and has since been downsized if you can believe that. I lived out of the trunk of my patrol car for a few days but it was still better off than those trying to flee.
Take from this anything you think useful.
Good comments to consider. They reinforce assumptions I made when drafting the plan, and which are part of on-going revisions to it, that is that one needs to have and maintain as many options as possible when making critical decisions like whether to stay or evacuate, the well-made plans in one area could be confounded in another as you travel, and it is always beguiling to the fear one may have under the circumstances to doubt and second guess what you had pre-planned. Develop a plan with care and as much knowledge as you can muster, make sure your plan is adaptable to the evolving situation, and have confidence in yourself and the plan. If something demands a change, make it but don't let the need for revision make you doubt your intention. The greatest fear is that of fear, to bastardize FDR's lines. While having a group of like-minded citizens around me is reassuring I can't help but feel deeply that, in an emergency situation, I will travel safer and quicker if traveling alone. That resolution may change, however. Giving up is never an option.