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JAGO
02-12-2010, 06:07
As we know, there are huge problems with the administration's foreign policy. While much attention is focused on Iran's nuclear program, things are changing for the worse in the far east.

v/r
phil


http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/eo20100212a1.html


Many in denial over China's quest for bases


By HARSH V. PANT


Special to The Japan Times
LONDON — For a long time, Chinese foreign-policy thinkers and the political establishment have been trying to convince the world that China's rise is peaceful, that China has no expansionist intentions and that China will be a different kind of great power.

What's striking is how many liberals in the West have taken these assertions at face value. There is an entire industry in the West that would have us believe that China is a different kind of great power and that if the West only gives China a stake in the established order, China's rise will not create any complications.

Now, however, one of the most prominent foreign policy thinkers in China is suggesting that establishing bases overseas is a Chinese right that the government cannot ignore. Shen Dingli, a professor at Fudan University in Shanghai, asserts that "it is wrong for us [China] to believe that we have no rights to set up bases abroad."

Dingli argues that it is not terrorism or piracy that poses the greatest threat to China's interests, but rather the potential of other states to block China's trade routes. To prevent this from happening, China, according to Dingli, needs not only a blue-water navy but also "overseas military bases to cut the supply costs."

Of course, Dingli doesn't fail to mention that the real purpose behind the development of China's military prowess is "world peace" and that China will establish military bases overseas not only to protect its interests but also to promote regional and global stability. Yet the real message is strikingly clear: As China emerges as a major global power, it will expand its military footprint across the globe, much as other great powers have done throughout history.

For some time now, China's expansionist behavior has been evident. China has been acquiring naval bases along crucial "choke points" in the Indian Ocean not only to serve its economic interests but also to enhance its strategic presence in the region. China realizes that its maritime strength will give it strategic leverage to emerge as the regional hegemon and a potential superpower.

China's growing reliance on bases across the Indian Ocean is a response to its perceived vulnerability, given the logistic constraints it faces because of the distance to the Indian Ocean.

China is also consolidating power over the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean with an eye on India. China's growing naval presence is troubling for India as it restricts India's freedom to maneuver in the region. Of particular note is China's "string of pearls" strategy, which has significantly expanded China's presence in India's backyard.

The Gwadar port in Pakistan, naval bases in Burma and electronic intelligence-gathering facilities on islands in the Bay of Bengal are part of this strategy. Some claims concerning the Chinese naval presence in Burma are exaggerated. The Indian government, for example, conceded in 2005 that reports of China turning the Coco Islands in Burma into a naval base were incorrect and that there were no naval bases in Burma.

Still, the Chinese thrust into the Indian Ocean is gradually becoming more pronounced. The Chinese may not have a naval base in Burma, but they are involved in the upgrade of infrastructure in the Coco Islands and may be providing some limited technical assistance to Burma.

As almost 80 percent of China's oil passes through the Strait of Malacca, Beijing is reluctant to rely on U.S. naval power to ensure unhindered access to energy, so it has decided to build up its naval power at choke points along sea routes from the Persian Gulf to the South China Sea.

China also is courting other states in South Asia by building container ports in Bangladesh at Chittagong and in Sri Lanka at Hambantota as well as helping to build a naval base at Marao Island in the Maldives. Consolidating its access to the Indian Ocean, China has signed an agreement with Sri Lanka to finance the development of the Hambantota Development Zone (including a container port), a bunker system and an oil refinery.

The submarine base that China has built in the Maldives has the potential to challenge U.S. naval forces from Diego Garcia. China's presence in the Bay of Bengal via roads and ports in Burma and in the Arabian Sea via the Chinese-built port of Gwadar in Pakistan has generated concern in India.

With access to crucial port facilities in Egypt, Iran and Pakistan, China is well-poised to secure its interests in the region. China's involvement in the construction of the deep-sea port of Gwadar has attracted a lot of attention due to its strategic location — about 70 kilometers from the Iranian border and 400 kilometers east of the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil supply route. It can be used to keep an eye on Indian and American activities in the Gulf and the Indian Ocean.

It is possible that the construction of these ports and facilities by China can be explained away on purely economic and commercial grounds, but for regional powers like the United States, Japan and India, these activities seem to be aimed at them. China's diplomatic and military efforts in the Indian Ocean seem to exhibit a desire to project power vis-a-vis competing powers in the region.

China is merely following in the footsteps of other major global powers who established military bases abroad to secure their interests. The sooner the world acknowledges this, the better it will be for global stability.

Harsh V. Pant teaches at King's College, London, and is a visiting fellow at the Center for the Advanced Study of India, University of Pennsylvania.
The Japan Times: Friday, Feb. 12, 2010
(C) All rights reserved
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LarryW
02-12-2010, 09:03
Dingli argues that it is not terrorism or piracy that poses the greatest threat to China's interests, but rather the potential of other states to block China's trade routes. To prevent this from happening, China, according to Dingli, needs not only a blue-water navy but also "overseas military bases to cut the supply costs."

Mr Dingli has perhaps read Mahan.

(from an overview…)

http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/gp/82203.htm

Mahan was one of the foremost proponents of the "vigorous foreign policy" referred to by Turner. Mahan believed that the U.S. economy would soon be unable to absorb the massive amounts of industrial and commercial goods being produced domestically, and he argued that the United States should seek new markets abroad. What concerned Mahan most was ensuring that the U.S. Government could guarantee access to these new international markets. Securing such access would require three things: a merchant navy, which could carry American products to new markets across the ?great highway? of the high seas; an American battleship navy to deter or destroy rival fleets; and a network of naval bases capable of providing fuel and supplies for the enlarged navy, and maintaining open lines of communications between the United States and its new markets.

China is at the beginning of their (modern) maritime economic ascendancy. Stand by for a lot more. Go Navy.

incarcerated
07-08-2010, 00:10
China is at the beginning of their (modern) maritime economic ascendancy. Stand by for a lot more. Go Navy.

http://home.kyodo.co.jp/modules/fstStory/index.php?storyid=510875

China's 2010 military spending 1.5 times larger than defense budget

TOKYO, July 8 KYODO
China's military spending will total 788.0 billion yuan, or 10.2 trillion yen, in 2010, about 1.5 times higher than the country's 2010 defense budget unveiled in March, Chinese military sources said Thursday.
Citing an internal report of the People's Liberation Army, the sources said China's military expenditures are expected to double to 1.41 trillion yuan in 2020 and triple to 2.30 trillion yuan in 2030, bolstering the view that the country's military expansion is likely to continue.
The report forecasts the spending will further increase to about 5 trillion yuan in 2050, according to the sources.
China is believed to be allocating a growing share of military expenditures to boosting its navy and air force, such as building aircraft carriers in an effort to gain a leading military position in Asia.
China's defense budget does not include outlays for research and development of weapons, leading other countries to suspect that actual spending is larger than the announced level.
The PLA report, which features the military's logistic operation, was compiled last fall by a senior PLA officer who teaches at the PLA National Defense University.
The forecast is based on the assumption that China's gross domestic product will grow at 6 percent a year on average from 2010 to 2020, 5 percent from 2021 to 2030 and around 4 percent from 2031 to 2050.
China's GDP is expected to grow more than 9 percent in 2010, higher than the assumed rate, so military spending this year could become higher than the forecast.
The sources quoted the report as saying that China's military expenditures account for about 2.5 percent of GDP.
But official data show that the country's defense spending has accounted for 1.4 percent of GDP in recent years.
The gap shows the PLA appears to have a concept of ''military spending,'' which is different from -- and larger than -- a defense budget.
The sources said military spending represents the defense budget plus military-related outlays for the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other organs under the State Council.
Some countries and territories have questioned that the defense budget alone may have been insufficient for China to develop its latest jet fighter models and deploy nuclear-powered submarines.
But the existence of military spending can explain China's recent moves to build carriers, military experts said.
One expert estimates China's military spending will reach $740 billion in 2050 based on the current exchange rate, which, if the yuan strengthens against the dollar, may exceed the U.S. level and become the world's largest.
A Chinese military source said Beijing does not seek to become a global military power, but ''a major regional power that influences the world.''
''It is early for China to bear responsibility for the world'' in terms ensuring global security, the source said. ''Such a move would diffuse China's strategic resources.''
The source said it is vital for China to ''develop its sea power'' in a bid to become a major regional power, suggesting that Beijing plans to increase spending on its navy and air force to expand their presence in the East China Sea and South China Sea, gateways to the Pacific.
On March 4, Li Zhaoxing, spokesman for China's parliament, the National People's Congress, said the country's defense spending would total 532.1 billion yuan in the fiscal 2010 budget, up 7.5 percent from a year earlier.
But the U.S. State Department suspects that China's defense spending would be twice to three times larger than the announced amount.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimated China's defense expenditures in 2009 were about 1.45 times larger than the announced level.
==Kyodo