View Full Version : A survival scenario: What do you do?
Let us consider a scenario - a survival scenario.
Starting point:
You are the proud owner (no mortgage!) of a modest 3 bedroom, 2 bath house on 32 acres of good farmland. You're right next to a stream that has good water flow and has never gone dry. In addition, you get electricity from the grid, and have sewer and water connections to a small town with a population of about 250. The area is in the temperate zone of the U.S. and has 4 seasons. The area is fertile, rural, and many of the people have small numbers of livestock. A considerable number grow hay, and many have vegetable gardens.
In addition, you are well supplied. You have an extensive number of firearms of high quality, abundant ammunition, and some (2 gen +) night vision capability. You have one automatic weapon of your choice, fully (and lawfully) registered under the NFA. You have one year of freeze-dried and MRE food for yourself and your family. You also have all medications you and your family need. Your store of gold and silver will cover any normal bills you might have. Choose other supplies at your discretion.
Crisis:
For some reason, a crisis occurs - one which causes the normal functioning of the society to cease. This means that the delivery system that supplies the stores no longer works. Government and corporate checks are no longer delivered. Hospitals and the medical system in general cease to do their work.
Katrina was a short term example of this. One Second After, a novel about an EMP attack, considers a 1 year scenario. Some peak oil theorists suggest that such breakdown might result due to declines in oil availability. But whatever the reason, the web of trade and exchange has been disrupted.
Some Challenges:
As pointed out by The Reaper:
90% of the nice Americans are about 72 hours from reverting to savages.
Take away electricity, clean water, flush toilets, comms, wheels, a full cupboard, a universally accepted currency, and stores full of things to buy and watch what happens within days.
See Katrina for examples.
TR
Your neighbors in the small community are not as wise as you and have only limited supplies. Fortunately, you've been as gray as a person can be, so they don't know about what you have. You are within 150 miles of a number of cities of 100,000 population, and 1 city that has 250,000 people. They will have reverted, and they will be hungry. Your community (and you) are close to a major highway. You should expect large numbers of people to come through your area - at first by car, and later on foot. Many of them will be armed.
The grid and infrastructure may last for some time, but as society becomes unraveled, they will be less dependable and will ultimately fail. So the freezer won't be effective after about a month. Neither will the rest of the systems we have come to depend upon.
ROE
The normal standards of law and order have been relaxed. Calls to 911 produce no help. You can defend yourself and your property without adverse consequences. More aggressive postures entail the substantial risk of future legal problems.
Question: So - what do you do to get through 2 years? (Note that you only have stored food for one year) Simply hiding probably won't work, since the other people in the area will start to wonder about you. And they will notice that you don't look as if you've lost a lot of weight. Hunting may work for a while, but others will hunt too - so game availability will decline to a low level. Farming is fine, but you don't have any seeds stored. And although this is a rural area, many of the seeds available may be hybrids that don't reproduce.
Bonus Question: A stream of hungry, desperate refugees stream by on the roads. One of them that pushes all your emotional buttons seeks your assistance. An example might be a young mother with an infant in her arms. If you help one like this, others will come. This will continue until your safe-haven is overwhelmed or you turn them away. What do you do, and when?
Nmap - interesting scenario that I will have to ponder over tonight before I give a full accounting of how I would handle the situation.
But I can tell you for darn sure the first thing I am going to do is make sure the highway running past my neck of the woods is impassable starting about 50 miles from me in both directions, and working incrementally in from there. The longer I can keep the masses from the nearby metropolitan areas at bay, the better off me and my family will be.
You are the proud owner (no mortgage!) of a modest 3 bedroom, 2 bath house on 32 acres of good farmland. You're right next to a stream that has good water flow and has never gone dry. In addition, you get electricity from the grid, and have sewer and water connections to a small town with a population of about 250. The area is in the temperate zone of the U.S. and has 4 seasons. The area is fertile, rural, and many of the people have small numbers of livestock. A considerable number grow hay, and many have vegetable gardens.
In addition, you are well supplied. You have an extensive number of firearms of high quality, abundant ammunition, and some (2 gen +) night vision capability. You have one automatic weapon of your choice, fully (and lawfully) registered under the NFA. You have one year of freeze-dried and MRE food for yourself and your family. You also have all medications you and your family need. Your store of gold and silver will cover any normal bills you might have. Choose other supplies at your discretion.
At the very least, once society has righted itself, nobody can accuse us of being ill-prepared.
This should be an interesting dialogue.
Sounds like Jericho (http://www.cbs.com/primetime/jericho/) to me.
What are the property taxes on a town of 250 to provide sewer and water to a farm? :eek:
Pat
The Reaper
10-07-2009, 16:23
I see you have been reading.:D
Good questions.
The book was excellent, but very depressing.
First, buy topo maps of your area, from 1:25,000 to the 1:500,000 or so which includes the cities you mentioned in the area. Do an area study. Take up walking. Hike every piece of terrain you can find, first on your property, then everything within a one-mile radius. The analyze the threat. Where are people coming from and what routes are they likely to take? How close can they get to your home without being spotted? Where can they hide? Know how to get into your property, and out of your property, on foot and in vehicles, without being easily seen.
Are there any natural barriers between your property, and the high speed avenue of approach? If not, consider creating one of natural or manmade types. Rerouting a stream parallel to the road, creating an abatis, chain link, barbed wire, etc. Clear fields of fire. Limit cover/concealment within 100 meters of your home, if possible. Harden your structure. Work to reduce the hazard of fire, either accidental, or arson. Consider having the capability to close the road or drive to your house. Either demo or heavy equipment will work. Frankly, you do not want to be visible from the road. I would want to be as far from it and natural lines of drift as possible within your boundaries and tactical considerations. Keep a very low profile. Learn if any neighbors might be reliable in an emergency, and work out a generic mutual aid agreement. Also figure out which ones you cannot trust.
Ensure that you have multiple sources of potable water for an extended duration. If you have a spring or a well, get a couple of hand pumps. Try to get a source near your house and cooking/cleaning sites.You need a tank or a cistern, and possibly a windmill pump to fill it. You should probably convert to at least one diesel vehicle and get an underground tank of several hundred gallons, lots of spare parts or maybe a donor vehicle.
You need non-hybrid seeds, small farming equipment, protection for the crop, small livestock (chickens, goats, maybe a few pigs), and feed. Lay up food for your cats and dogs till they adjust to hunting. They are food sources as well, if you are short and they are not productive. I would consider getting a horse, mule, or small diesel tractor, with assorted implements for small farming/large gardening and spare parts. Seeds are cheap (as are chickens and goats). You live on a farm, start acting like it. I would skip some of the MREs for longer life, more variety, less expensive grains and legumes, supplemented by powdered milk, sugar, etc. Get a small grain mill. That could take you up to two years of supply right there. Get the largest underground propane tank you can afford (1000 gallons, if you can) and a small, quiet LP powered generator. Keep the tank topped off regularly. Get gas appliances, to include a gas powered fridge, or at least an adaptor to run your grill from the propane tank. Either an LP furnace, or a couple of fireplaces. The diesel will burn in a kerosene stove, if necessary. Think about buying enough deep cycle batteries and an inverter for a battery bank to run small appliances and lights throughout the day. Charge batteries and run large appliances with the genset once or twice per day, less if you can get away with it. Keep visible outside lights off at night. You might board or at least shutter your windows.
Lay in extra medical supplies, both routine and trauma. At least a year of essential medical supplies. Learn to treat trauma injuries and ensure everyone is CPR qualified. Get several large bottles of vitamins and some analgesics like aspirin, ibuprofen, acetaminophen, etc. as well.
Stay in shape. Take care of your health. Try to learn to cook and eat the food you have stored.
Cross-train members of the family so that no one person is key or essential. Everyone should be able to shoot, provide first aid, operate commo gear, cook, garden, etc.
Develop a local commo plan, consider PACE. I would keep spare electronics wrapped in heavy aluminum foil and sealed in ammo cans. Get several good handheld two-way radios, shortwaves, a scanner, etc. Use rechargeable batteries, try to standardize on AAs, if possible. Have several chargers, AC/DC, solar, etc. If you have a bicycle (or a small gasoline engine, if you have the gasoline), a good battery (preferably deep cycle, like golf carts and trolling motors use), and an alternator, a couple of pulleys, and a belt, you can make your own small generator and charge batteries, power small lights, like taillight bulbs, nightlights etc. Quiet and low profile. Good exercise, as well.
Learn to trap, lay in the gear, and make sure that the area supports game. Plant supporting crops and trees, especially nuts and fruit.
Stock up on barter items that you can also use, if necessary. Nothing too bulky. Coffee, TP, whiskey, rimfire ammo, fishing tackle, needles, etc.
Hygiene is an issue. Get some washtubs, pots, kettles, washboards, brushes, clothesline, soaps, toilet paper, etc. Think about waste disposal. A septic tank might work for a few years, if you maintain it and do not overload it with too many people making waste. Think about where you would put an outhouse. Keep the materials, and some quicklime on hand. Also consider where you will bury the dead, and how.
Have plenty of tools, both powered and hand, and know how to use them. A torch or a welder could be handy, especially if you have some stock material on hand. Keep plenty of plywood, 2x4s, 2x6s, sheet steel, angle iron, etc. on hand.
Lay in several times more ammo than you think you will need. If you anticipate a big threat, you might want to consider putting in some fighting positions. You never know what a slit trench could come in handy for. Quick to dig with a backhoe, line with concrete pipe, cover, and maybe even put some sod on top. Construct at least one covered and concealed route of escape from your house. If you have a barn, take care of it. You might wind up living in it if your home is destroyed or burned. Cache some supplies around the property and ensure that the others know how to access them.
You will need at least four people to run round the clock security and to tend to chores. Six older teens or adults would be better. Avoid contact with outsiders. Allow no one else to know of your preparations. Admit no one to your retreat who cannot add to your odds of survival. That means they have to have skills. No mercy, except for family. Your job is to ensure the survival of your family, not to take in the unprepared. if you have a 12 month supply for four people, and you take one additional person in, everyone just lost two months of their food supply. Two people means you ony have an eight month supply. Four and you cut it in half. How guilty should you feel saving strangers and sacrificing your family? I don't plan on trusting strangers in my house with my family in that situation while I sleep. That young mother with an infant could have a bunch of unpleasant friends waiting for her signal when you go to bed. Your call though.
If you are being pestered by refugees, you have not hardened the site or gone to a low enough profile. Most starving people will not negotiate several obstacles and travel hundreds of yards off the road out of idle curiosity. Put up a tall barbed wire fence reinforced with hog wire or chain link, and plant some vicious, fast-growing thorny bushes directly in front of them along the right of way frontage, and fertilize them. Close the driveway after the trigger event, and make it impassable. Consider dropping any small bridges that allow easy access that you will not need. If the neighboring properties allow access to yours, close them off as well. leave yourself a few exits, but camouflage and monitor them. Consider some perimeter warning devices and surveillance equipment. Obviously, you have to decide how serious to get with this. Your solution lies between no preparation beyond what you have already, and what I have offered.
Personally, I would not want to live that close to that many people, if I had a choice.
Just a few thoughts off the top of my head.
TR
greenberetTFS
10-07-2009, 16:51
I see you have been reading.
Good questions.
The book was excellent, but very depressing.
Are there any natural barriers between your property, and the high speed avenue of approach? If not, consider creating one of natural or manmade types. Rerouting a stream parallel to the road, creating an abatis, chain link, barbed wire, etc. Clear fields of fire. Harden your structure. Work to reduce the hazard of fire, either accidental, or arson. Consider having the capability to close the road or drive to your house. Either demo or heavy equipment will work. Frankly, you do not want to be visible from the road. I would want to be as far from it and natural lines of drift as possible. Keep a very low profile. Learn if any neighbors might be reliable in an emergency, and work out a generic mutual aid agreement. Also figure out which ones you cannot trust.
Ensure that you have multiple sources of potable water for an extended duration. If you have a spring or a well, get a couple of hand pumps. You should probably convert to at least one diesel vehicle and get an underground tank of several hundred gallons.
You need non-hybrid seeds, small farming equipment, protection for the crop, small livestock (chickens, goats, maybe a few pigs), and feed. Lay up food for your cats and dogs till they adjust to hunting. They are food sources as well, if you are short and they are not productive. I would consider getting a horse, mule, or small diesel tractor, with assorted implements for small farming/large gardening and spare parts. Seeds are cheap (as are chickens and goats). You live on a farm, start acting like it. I would skip some of the MREs for longer life, more variety, less expensive grains and legumes, supplemented by powdered milk, sugar, etc. Get a small grain mill. That could take you up to two years of supply right there. Get the largest underground propane tank you can afford and a small, quiet LP powered generator. Keep it topped off regularly. Get gas appliances, to include a gas powered fridge, or at least an adaptor to run your grill from the propane tank. Either an LP furnace, or a couple of fireplaces. The diesel will burn in a kerosense stove, if necessary. Think about buying enough deep cycle batteries and an inverter for a battery bank to run small appliances and lights throughout the day. Charge/run large appliances with the genset once or twice per day. Keep visible outside lights off at night. You might board or at least shutter your windows.
Lay in extra medical supplies, both routine and trauma. At least a year of essential medical supplies. Learn to treat trauma injuries and ensure everyone is CPR qualified.
Stay in shape. Take care of your health. Try to learn to cook and eat the food you have stored.
Cross-train members of the family so that no one person is key or essential. Everyone should be able to shoot, provide first aid, operate commo gear, cook, garden, etc.
Develop a local commo plan, consider PACE. I would keep spare electronics wrapped in heavy aluminum foil and sealed in ammo cans.
Learn to trap, lay in the gear, and make sure that the area supports game. Plant supporting crops and trees.
Stock up on barter items that you can also use, if necessary.
Hygiene is an issue. Get some washtubs, pots, kettles, washboards, brushes, clothesline, soaps, toilet paper, etc. Think about waste disposal. A septic tank might work for a few years, if you maintain it and do not overload it with too many people making waste. Think about where you would put an outhouse. Keep the materials, and some quicklime on hand. Also consider where you will bury the dead, and how.
Have plenty of tools, both powered and hand, and know how to use them. A torch or a welder could be handy, especially if you have some stock material on hand. Keep plenty of plywood, 2x4s, 2x6s, sheet steel, angle iron, etc. on hand.
Lay in several times more ammo than you think you will need. If you anticipate a big threat, you might want to consider putting in some fighting positions. Quick to dig with a backhoe, line with concrete pipe, cover, and maybe even put some sod on top. Construct at least one covered and concealed route of escape from your house. If you have a barn, take care of it. You might wind up living in it if your home is destroyed or burned. Cache some supplies around the property and ensure that the others know how to access them.
You will need at least four people to run round the clock security and to tend to chores. Six teens or older would be better. Avoid contact with outsiders. Allow no one else to know of your preparations. Admit no one to your retreat who cannot add to your odds of survival. That means they have to have skills. No mercy, except for family. Your job is to ensure the survival of your family, not to take in the unprepared. if you have a 12 month supply for four people, and you take one additional person in, everyone just lost two months of their food supply. Two people means you ony have an eight month supply. How guilty should you feel saving strangers and sacrificing your family? Your call.
If you are being pestered by refugees, you have not hardened the site or gone to a low enough profile. Most starving people will not negotiate several obstacles and travel hundreds of yards off the road out of idle curiosity. Put up a tall barbed wire fence reinforced with hog wire or chain link, and plant some vicious, fast-growing thorny bushes directly in front of them along the right of way frontage, and fertilize them. Close the driveway after the trigger event, and make it impassable. Consider dropping any small bridges that allow easy access that you will not need. If the neighboring properties allow access to yours, close them off as well. leave yourself a few exits, but camouflage and monitor them. Consider some perimeter warning devices and surveillance equipment. Obviously, you have to decide how serious to get with this. Your solution lies between no preparation beyond what you have already, and what I have offered.
Personally, I would not want to live that close to that many people, if I had a choice.
Just a few thoughts off the top of my head.
TR
TR,
WOW,when the $h*t goes down would it be alright if I moved next door to you and be your generic mutual aid agreement neighbor ? :):):)
Big Teddy :munchin
I see you have been reading.:D
Good questions.
The book was excellent, but very depressing.
Are there any natural barriers between your property, and the high speed avenue of approach? If not, consider creating one of natural or manmade types. Rerouting a stream parallel to the road, creating an abatis, chain link, barbed wire, etc. Clear fields of fire. Limit cover/concealment within 100 meters of your home, if possible. Harden your structure. Work to reduce the hazard of fire, either accidental, or arson. Consider having the capability to close the road or drive to your house. Either demo or heavy equipment will work. Frankly, you do not want to be visible from the road. I would want to be as far from it and natural lines of drift as possible within your boundaries and tactical considerations. Keep a very low profile. Learn if any neighbors might be reliable in an emergency, and work out a generic mutual aid agreement. Also figure out which ones you cannot trust.
Ensure that you have multiple sources of potable water for an extended duration. If you have a spring or a well, get a couple of hand pumps. You should probably convert to at least one diesel vehicle and get an underground tank of several hundred gallons.
You need non-hybrid seeds, small farming equipment, protection for the crop, small livestock (chickens, goats, maybe a few pigs), and feed. Lay up food for your cats and dogs till they adjust to hunting. They are food sources as well, if you are short and they are not productive. I would consider getting a horse, mule, or small diesel tractor, with assorted implements for small farming/large gardening and spare parts. Seeds are cheap (as are chickens and goats). You live on a farm, start acting like it. I would skip some of the MREs for longer life, more variety, less expensive grains and legumes, supplemented by powdered milk, sugar, etc. Get a small grain mill. That could take you up to two years of supply right there. Get the largest underground propane tank you can afford and a small, quiet LP powered generator. Keep it topped off regularly. Get gas appliances, to include a gas powered fridge, or at least an adaptor to run your grill from the propane tank. Either an LP furnace, or a couple of fireplaces. The diesel will burn in a kerosense stove, if necessary. Think about buying enough deep cycle batteries and an inverter for a battery bank to run small appliances and lights throughout the day. Charge/run large appliances with the genset once or twice per day. Keep visible outside lights off at night. You might board or at least shutter your windows.
Lay in extra medical supplies, both routine and trauma. At least a year of essential medical supplies. Learn to treat trauma injuries and ensure everyone is CPR qualified.
Stay in shape. Take care of your health. Try to learn to cook and eat the food you have stored.
Cross-train members of the family so that no one person is key or essential. Everyone should be able to shoot, provide first aid, operate commo gear, cook, garden, etc.
Develop a local commo plan, consider PACE. I would keep spare electronics wrapped in heavy aluminum foil and sealed in ammo cans.
Learn to trap, lay in the gear, and make sure that the area supports game. Plant supporting crops and trees.
Stock up on barter items that you can also use, if necessary.
Hygiene is an issue. Get some washtubs, pots, kettles, washboards, brushes, clothesline, soaps, toilet paper, etc. Think about waste disposal. A septic tank might work for a few years, if you maintain it and do not overload it with too many people making waste. Think about where you would put an outhouse. Keep the materials, and some quicklime on hand. Also consider where you will bury the dead, and how.
Have plenty of tools, both powered and hand, and know how to use them. A torch or a welder could be handy, especially if you have some stock material on hand. Keep plenty of plywood, 2x4s, 2x6s, sheet steel, angle iron, etc. on hand.
Lay in several times more ammo than you think you will need. If you anticipate a big threat, you might want to consider putting in some fighting positions. Quick to dig with a backhoe, line with concrete pipe, cover, and maybe even put some sod on top. Construct at least one covered and concealed route of escape from your house. If you have a barn, take care of it. You might wind up living in it if your home is destroyed or burned. Cache some supplies around the property and ensure that the others know how to access them.
You will need at least four people to run round the clock security and to tend to chores. Six teens or older would be better. Avoid contact with outsiders. Allow no one else to know of your preparations. Admit no one to your retreat who cannot add to your odds of survival. That means they have to have skills. No mercy, except for family. Your job is to ensure the survival of your family, not to take in the unprepared. if you have a 12 month supply for four people, and you take one additional person in, everyone just lost two months of their food supply. Two people means you ony have an eight month supply. How guilty should you feel saving strangers and sacrificing your family? Your call.
If you are being pestered by refugees, you have not hardened the site or gone to a low enough profile. Most starving people will not negotiate several obstacles and travel hundreds of yards off the road out of idle curiosity. Put up a tall barbed wire fence reinforced with hog wire or chain link, and plant some vicious, fast-growing thorny bushes directly in front of them along the right of way frontage, and fertilize them. Close the driveway after the trigger event, and make it impassable. Consider dropping any small bridges that allow easy access that you will not need. If the neighboring properties allow access to yours, close them off as well. leave yourself a few exits, but camouflage and monitor them. Consider some perimeter warning devices and surveillance equipment. Obviously, you have to decide how serious to get with this. Your solution lies between no preparation beyond what you have already, and what I have offered.
Personally, I would not want to live that close to that many people, if I had a choice.
Just a few thoughts off the top of my head.
TR
Prep your house so it looks abandoned and run down. therefore dissuading people from prying. Tiger traps, and punjis will also help keep the riff raff away as well as double as a food source with wild game.
stock up on reloading supplies and weapons maintenance items. never know just how long you'll be in the s**t.
camoflage your generator and put a silencer on it.
nice that you have an automatic weapon of choice, but you need something for the dead space. augment with a M79.
learn how to sew, for the clothes repairs. Yon's sew shop probably won't make house calls during the crisis. have a lot of work clothes in varying sizes to compensate for your waist size. Depending on how you're heating your house, this could be known as the layer system.
Don't remember a survival radio in the list. they have the ones now that you can wind up and charges a battery.
board games to play with your family.
a large tool box capable of sustaining major home repairs and or appliances.
Plan a fall back position on the property preferably on high ground, yet still with access to primary or secondary water source.
Have a PACE plan and rehearse it with your family. Execute it to find the bugs in the plan.
Range cards for your property from the different fighting positions.
cohesive interlocking fields of fire with your neighbor.
recognition signals for you and your neighbor.
After reading this one.. I'll need to move the whole family from where I live.
:(
The Reaper
10-07-2009, 18:40
After reading this one.. I'll need to move the whole family from where I live.
:(
Only if you are worried about it.:D
You could also try to leave your current home if things start going badly, and go somewhere else, especially if you have friends or family there. I would make arrangements ahead of time, and wouldn't wait till the last minute to leave though.
TR
Find a house off of the beaten trail.
You sir, are stuffed, but you'll be relatively comfortable until someone with with a Ted Williams 30-06 takes you out. You don't have enough personnel to push your perimeter out past a relatively easy shot with a scoped deer rifle. Three guys and a little patience should do it.
I worked a three-acre truck farm one summer (tip - make sure you have a lot of work gloves until your hands callous up). You and yours will be spending a lot of time out in open fields, turning, planting, hoeing with slung rifles, if you expect to have food that second year. ("I'll shoot the daughter in the leg first, that should anchor Dad and big brother and you two can take them out.") And that's assuming you take TR's advice and start now. Trying to turn fallow pasture into productive acreage in one season is a pipe dream. Land has to be learned.
Game out this counter-scenario: You and your buddies like guns. Until ammo got so expensive you shot a coupla hundred rounds every other weekend and you are all fairly proficient. Like many armchair survivalists you have enough firearms and ammo to kit out a squad but only enough food and water for a couple weeks, at most. The water is down and the food's gone and Uncle Sugar is nowhere to be found. Joe and Gus were riflemen in the Marines. You all have kids and you won't watch them starve without a fight. Time to head out into the country and see what you can find.
Or imagine you've been hunting all your life, or gangbanging since you were 12, or served 20 years in the infantry, or you are a local sheriff's deputy with a family and no plan. There are an awful lot of complacent people, but an empty belly focuses the mind. I can't be the only one who has a good state atlas (with little blue squiggles on it), a fine rifle, and a brain.
You are describing a total breakdown in social order. At the minimum you'll need 3? or 4? farms like yours, supporting each other in close cooperation. Look at the Rhodesian experience...and they had radios, FALs and Land Rovers.
The good news is that you're covered for anything up to, but not including, the scenario you've laid out. Now if you move to the farm now and start to work it, cleave to the community, coach Little League, go to church, offer to help your neighbor pull that dang stump, cautiously feel out and identify like-minded others, etc. then you have more options, in my opinion.
I've decided to prepare enough to avoid standing in line for handouts during a 12 month hiccup. Preparing for total societal breakdown, zombie attacks, >20% CFR pandemics, etc. require levels of commitment and paranoia I have yet to attain.
Only if you are worried about it.:D
You could also try to leave your current home if things start going badly, and go somewhere else, especially if you have friends or family there. I would make arrangements ahead of time, and wouldn't wait till the last minute to leave though.
TR
Nope.. I have a plan... I come with gear and ammo... and a willingness to pull security . :D
AL
armymom1228
10-07-2009, 19:57
Find a house off of the beaten trail.
Build a house off the beaten trail yrs before this scenario hopefully never happens in my lifetime.
IF it does.
I am not so sure I would have an obvious fence with barbed wire. Humans have an inate sense of curiousity about what might be behind it that is so worth all that barbed wire. They would not, however, notice blackberry hedges that are thick and encircle the property that apears to be thick woods. The house, sitting up off the ground by 12 feet on piers with stairs that are retracted when not in use or when needed to be up in defense. NO generators... go Luddite..
http://www.lehmans.com/store/catalog?Args=
These guys once shipped me a wood cooking stove and a propane powered freezer, we converted to methane.
Until the 20th century, most people did not have multi sets of clothing. Clothes were let out or taken in according to the individuals size. Clothes were handed down from one to the other and remade or refitted. The buckskinning series of books offers up simple patterns that can be turned into clothes by any novice, with a needle and a bedsheet. Most older, all metal insides, sewing machines can be turned into a handcrank machine or run via a foot treadle.
Not one box of tools, several for each system, electrical, plumbing, general tools.
skils and goods for barter. It is done all the time in the offishore cruising community.
About those in need. I dunno... the child's story "Stone Soup" made a huge impact on me as a kid, that is still with me as an adult.
Jericho was so unrealistic it was laughable. But I enjoyed it anyway.
AM.
Build a house off the beaten trail yrs before this scenario hopefully never happens in my lifetime.
Yep, best defense is being invisible. People will go to place that are near the beaten trail, places that draws their attentions that might fulfill their needs.
NoRoadtrippin
10-07-2009, 20:41
See, I have got to stop reading threads like this or "Be Prepared."
I read comments from TR, TS, or others and have to continually remind myself that these people have 20-30 years (or more for some) of thinking in this mindset.
Gotta keep reminding myself, one supply at a time....can't buy it all in a day.
The Reaper
10-07-2009, 20:49
See, I have got to stop reading threads like this or "Be Prepared."
I read comments from TR, TS, or others and have to continually remind myself that these people have 20-30 years (or more for some) of thinking in this mindset.
Gotta keep reminding myself, one supply at a time....can't buy it all in a day.
You can be a little more prepared at the end of every day.
As the saying goes, "The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step."
Keep it up. You'll be ahead of 90% of the population.
TR
Have an Exit Plan. It always falls to an exit plan. A strong hold will only last days / weeks at best, depending on ability to defend, limited ammo, water/food.
Currently, I have a location already selected outside my current larger(er) town residence.
The selected area has stored water, food, dry goods, (wheat, honey, dehydrated friuts, vegtables), fuel, (gas, oil, wood, etc.), and medical supplies. The plan requires no call out, but incident occuried actions, (i.e., earthquake, another 9/11 level attack, epidemic outbreak, etc), we leave immediately. Regional problems, we watch the news, assembly will be dillberate but planned. We expect no commmercial/public comm's to work after 7-10 days, we have dead drop letter locations planned out. Ciphered text, one time pads, key phrases, etc.
Those who assemble are, civil engineers, doctors, educators, and fabricators. On site is a fully functioning blacksmith shop, medical supplies, building materials, garden and wind powered water pump. Group dynamics are as follows: Adults Male, ages 25-50, Female, ages 18-45, numbering 20. Children, teenages 13-18, numbering 10. Children under age 12, number 6, infants, under age two, none, (just had a birthday, age 3).
All that is required to Mob-out, is one vehicle per family household, full fuel tank, "go bags" are packed, extra fuel is in garage, (have access to enough fuel to travel a 500 mile range). Grab weapons, (1) personal kit, limited to 45 lbs. Legal docs., birth certificates, medical records that are currently safe, copies are in the freezer. Copy of everything is sceured in two addional locations, (east and west coast families). No mention of "location" is recorded or known of by outside parties.
Area is defendable, but not permanent. Would require experienced force to capture and or occupy without sustaining heavy casulties. "Families" involved understand that we might not stay, but continue to be mobile.
Plan on being miserable for longer than anyone expects.
Someone once said, "...you truely own that which you can carry and run".
I'm good for (1) weapon, 360 rds., basic load, (1) days rations/water and a small child. Let's hope it dose'nt get to that.
WD
Fascinating answers - and enlightening. Thought provoking in the best way.
With regard to total societal breakdown, I agree - preparation for such an event is problematic at best. The likelihood of long term survival is not good. And yet, when I use Google News and enter the term {home invasion} I get 7,973 hits. This is a troubling trend.
I noticed that the Cairo, Illinois police department had most of its patrol cars repossessed and went from 29 to 5 staff. LINK (http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/09/28/eveningnews/main5347697.shtml) So I ask myself at what point the thin blue line no longer can maintain order.
If matters get worse - will the police department even have 5 officers? Will they even have 1? :confused:
And all of this flows from too many bad home mortgages - that shouldn't even come close to producing a "zombie" scenario.
Peregrino
10-07-2009, 20:57
Interesting. I think between TR and Mugwump we've got the Alpha and Omega covered. Others have done a creditable job of filling gaps. Unfortunately I find my personal mobility has become very restricted of the last few years so while my contingencies mirror the strong points, I've had to expand in a slightly different direction. My plans now incorporate more reliance on relationships than they did previously. Lots of benefit in strong communities. Brings to mind the Chinese parable about the father who needs to select his heir. He gives his sons a bundle of sticks and commands them to break the bundle. The one who succeeds wins. Like all parables, this one has a lesson. Survival in this scenario is all about community - what kind of support net have you created in your local community? Church, Scouting, and sports (Little League & Pee Wee Football - soccer not so much) are the social organizations most likely to yield relationships that might be valuable. (Yes - I am shamelessly exploiting a stereotype!) All of them require a significant investment before they will bear fruit (just like Mugwump's comments about farming - still cultivating, just a different crop). Might have to be a little flexible about your belief system in order to integrate into a tight knit (but potentially valuable) community (Amish, Menonites, and Mormons come to mind). Inflexible people will quickly find their options have narrowed to less than survival threshold. Fascinating series of psych tests from the 50's/60's variously referred to as lifeboat or fallout shelter tests. If you aren't familiar with them, you might want to try taking one. The experience can be illuminating.
armymom1228
10-07-2009, 21:06
I noticed that the Cairo, Illinois police department had most of its patrol cars repossessed and went from 29 to 5 staff.
If matters get worse - will the police department even have 5 officers? Will they even have 1? :confused:
.
I have noticed that in the latest situations. The local towns contract with the county sheriff's office for protection and enforcement.
The Reaper
10-07-2009, 21:06
If you want a educational, but depressing read about a post-EMP survival scenario, get "One Second After", which nmap alluded to earlier.
The worst part is that it is completely plausible.
How much hangs on those thin wires that support our lives?
TR
Surf n Turf
10-07-2009, 21:07
So I ask myself at what point the thin blue line no longer can maintain order.
nmap,
I believe that the “thin blue line” has just about kept its head above water for the last 10 years. In the larger cities they have already lost – they are outnumbered 10 to 1.
If a SHTF moment comes, LE will not be able to control their environment, then your thread starts, and its every person for themselves (and family)
SnT
May I offer this:
Our former ranch, in the Oklahoma Panhandle, comes very close to fitting nmap's scenario: N36° 43' 50.40", W101° 21' 3.34"
The ranch was a full section (640 acres) but was split by a river. We raised cattle on the South side and had a horse pasture on the North. The pasture is roughly the 32 acres.
The house dimensions are similar. A "guest" house was built in an excavated dugout found on the property and a mobile home was added later by my step father.
This is real property, in a specific location, near specific cities, with specific terrain features.
Pat
mojaveman
10-07-2009, 22:10
There's been some valuable information posted on this thread. A few tips on urban survival would be interesting. I live in Southern California and one of my greatest fears is suffering a major earthquake. A scenario like the riots in Los Angeles in '92 might pale in comparision to what could happen. Really, in a worst case scenario my plan is to travel to northern Michigan where some of my relatives live on large farms in sparsely populated areas.
I will post if you like. TR's number is close. Mine is more hopeful, his is more realistic.
I'd like to see your thoughts.
I thought the AF will fly forever. No?
Rhetorical question: How many hours of maintenance is required per hour in the air? (Yes, I know - it varies).
Rhetorical question: After USAF stocks of parts are depleted, how practical is additional procurement? (My impression - potentially problematic).
It may fly forever, but it may not fly nearly as much.
greenberetTFS
10-07-2009, 23:46
Based off some population number crunching, I would like to weed out the weak before I get started.
Of our 300ish million citizens, roughly 35 million are over 65 years of age including my parents who will have a very difficult time doing much of anything and will almost be a burden to the core family. 180 million are overweight (with 54 million being obese) and won’t be able to run, march, stay awake at night while on security or resist from eating all the children’s cookies. Arguably, 200 million are clueless and don’t know east from west or how to think of anything remotely survivalistic or common sensical. Mix these numbers up and pull out 2/3 of the people.
So lets say within the first few days, maybe weeks, some 200 million Americans, or 2/3, die off, kill each other or need to die, leaving 100 million men, women, and children under 18 (25% of the population). If it is winter time, expect 2/3 of any northern population to perish, easily within two winters. All of this is hoping that all the decaying bodies don’t spark outbreaks of disease.
So, after all the fighting for security and other essentials, I will estimate that only 100 million Americans will be living 6 months from Day+1. Of these, roughly 30% will be evil and criminal. Some areas will do well and have less criminal/evil people and will deal with them swiftly. Because evil will be within the community, it is shameful to not know who they are right now. People may change, but usually for the worst under these conditions.
Those living in your scenario will not fare well NMAP and will struggle greatly to survive. After good versus evil, say 50-60 million damb fine Americans make it to the next phase, which is D+3 years. If the Mayan's tales are correct, this number could be much lower, maybe, but so will the rest of the world. With 50 million, minus 12 million kids and 20 million women, we will have 18 million men. Most of which will be hard and learned and hopeful of the future. If others leave us alone, we will rebuild and become strong again. Then, the cycle begins all over again. My figures are rough and rounded off.
Rangertab1,
I've got a problem with your scenario......:rolleyes: I'm over 65,actually 72. I'm also obese at 290 lbs,6'1"...... :mad: Maybe I'd even eat the children's cookies(nope on second thought I'd doubt it),but what really strikes me is the comment"need to die"........:confused:
Big Teddy :munchin
nmap,
I believe that the “thin blue line” has just about kept its head above water for the last 10 years. In the larger cities they have already lost – they are outnumbered 10 to 1.
If a SHTF moment comes, LE will not be able to control their environment, then your thread starts, and its every person for themselves (and family)
SnT
Katrina is a good example of this. Local LEO took off to take care of their own Family, who can blame them. When Hurricane Gustav hit last year. All the local LEO families were evacuated and taken care of before hand. But in an emergency this won't happen.
I had a House isolated from the main road on 45 Acres of land. I had the provisions, Ammo, Generators, gas all stored up. I'm sure I could of lived for over a year where I was. Well, thats all fine and dandy if you can afford a set up like this. Many can't.
I am saving now to be set up like this again in the future. You know the deal. Every ten years give away everything you own to the ex:D
But now I live in an Apartment one Block over from the US Capital. I would like to know what a person living in a City could do to prepare. Living where I do my main concerns are.
1. Escape, get the hell out of here: I always fill up my Tank when returning to the City. It is illegal to have any type of extra Gas stored in a container in your Truck here.
2. Still have my Ammo and Guns. I have a Go Bag with extra Mags and my AR locked and loaded by it's side. But thats more for the LEO in me. If an India type of Terrorist Attack happens here I want to be ready for them. I also have my personal Body Armor marked with Police on the front and back. Plus my Police Hat. Friendly fire is a big concern.
3. Have about two weeks of water and food.
4. $1000 in cash
5. Battery operated Radio and lantern/plenty of batteries.
6. All of my camping/wilderness survival Gear is stored in one container that I can easily grab.
Please add your recomendations..........
Defender968
10-08-2009, 07:33
nmap,
I believe that the “thin blue line” has just about kept its head above water for the last 10 years. In the larger cities they have already lost – they are outnumbered 10 to 1.
If a SHTF moment comes, LE will not be able to control their environment, then your thread starts, and its every person for themselves (and family)
SnT
Completely concur, I was pondering this last night driving back from DC, I would guess most large depts will be able to last maybe 14 days MAX, providing very minimal services. I visited the Spy museum this week and one of the scenario’s there was a hack into the power grid causing 100% of the power to go out, which got me to thinking about a complex attack beginning with a cyber attack on power followed up by an EMP from a nuclear device in the right place, and how such an attack would affect local LE.
Local LE (large depts.) will be able (if they have sufficient numbers of officers who stick around) to respond for a few days. My old department had a backup generator (powered by natural gas IIRC) and it's own gas station. The problem as I see it is that if all power goes down, there won't be calls to respond too as all civil communication will be down, so they will be reduced to simple patrolling to maintain order, this works minimally until they are ambushed or the gas pump goes dry, and they won't be able to come to anyone's aid like people are used to. They will be able to help only if they happen on the situation during a patrol. Also if we're talking about 100% power outages how long does the Natural Gas flow to their generator, I assume somewhere there is a pump requiring power that makes it flow? If you lose power to control (dispatch) to direct officers to each other for backup the police force will quickly be overwhelmed and likely neutralized (read killed) by the mobs, you could go to patrolling in 2 cars with 4 man squads but that is manpower intensive and even with 4 LEO's I suspect they'll be quickly overwhelmed by an angry mob. Without power I don't think the local LE will be a player after 14 days, which as others have said, means you're on your own 100% at that time, smaller departments with less resources will be ineffective much quicker IMO. If the governor called out the National Guard quickly to Large cities that may prolong the situation for a little while, but I think ultimately we get to the same place.
Just my .02
I am set pretty well for say an ice storm and a week or two at home. If things were looking really serious, my plan is to head to the deep woods with my many cousins.
armymom1228
10-08-2009, 08:34
Rangertab1,
I've got a problem with your scenario...... I'm over 65,actually 72. I'm also obese at 290 lbs,6'1"...... Maybe I'd even eat the children's cookies(nope on second thought I'd doubt it),but what really strikes me is the comment"need to die"........
Big Teddy
Well Teddy I can come down and smother you and put you out of your misery if you want?:D Seriously, in less technologically evolved societies it is our elderly that are looked to for wisdom. Older women were used as an extra pair of hands in food gathering and child rearing, the males become teachers. It comes to assessing and allocating your resources. That should not be an age based situation. Teddy will drop the weight, but his wisdom and experience would be invaluable in the long run. I would have assumed, automatically, that in Ranger School, one is taught to assess and utilize ALL available resources, maybe not... :D:D Teddy can I move nex to your aging obese self? I would feel a whole lot safer. Besides I can cook real well. :p
There are a LOT Of under 65s, heck, under 40's that could stand to be removed from the gene pool and society would not miss them. For any number of reasons.
Don't be so sure that x or y will not make it. Rats and roaches are still around after millions of yrs of humans best efforts to eradicate them, its the same with the human animal. Those we think will never manage to survive, do and flourish. While some of those we expect to be the one's who would, by all calculations be the prime candidate to make it for that all important 3 yr period, perish.
YMMV
AM
I worry more about the rise of a local charismatic leader building an army. Three possible candidates are:
1. County sheriff, he has already won a popularity contest to get elected so he has buy in and legitimacy from a "majority" percentage the community. He has cars, guns, commo, training, in depth knowledge of the area and a jail (aka a big castle), and a bunch of guys whose loyalty he holds in his hand. Once he figures out that he is on his own he can start a fiefdom easy. If and when your set up is discovered a tithe (and perhaps more then the traditional 10%) of some nature will be extracted. I would also expect to get pressed into service if you have skills he needs (families make great leverage)
2. Outlaw Motorcycle gangs, a tight knit group that is used to living hard and working together taking what they need. They do not have to go very far mentally to get past the societal norms that will slow or stop avg Joe citizen from shooting a guy over an MRE or a gold chain or for no good reason at all. They are traditionally heavily armed and I suspect will have good intel on local law enforcement and knowledge of the local area. If and when your set up is discovered I would expect a one sided fight (no insult intended to my hosts here, this is from a civilian perspective when thinking of facing 20 to 100 bikers intent on taking my stuff) and a complete loss of your stores and destruction of your property (or if it is a really sweet set up they will just move in). I would choose a “Masada” approach to this scenario because I believe that with no medivac, or ERs almost any gun shot is going to end up fatal. No matter how fortified a house is, someone will figure out a way to burn it.
3. Retired and current military. It will not take too long for commanders and former commanders to rebuild units and start securing areas. I pray that it is to rebuild our nation and to that end I will join and do all I can. But for every patirot rebuilding the US the possibility of a “Balckwater” trying to start the United States of Erik is very real.
Slantwire
10-08-2009, 08:41
over 65 years of age including my parents who will have a very difficult time doing much of anything and will almost be a burden to the core family.
They can't cook, clean, or sew? Tend to an herb garden that won't produce mass amounts of food, but can make the larger farm production more palatable? Nurse any sick / injured, teach or supervise the youths? Give you some pointers on how they remember their grandparents doing things "back in the day?"
Maybe it would take them longer to mend damaged clothes than it would take you, but it would free you up to work the field / check the traps.
In the posted scenario, die-off is inevitable. But I'm not going to encourage others to go ahead and take themselves out. (Well, maybe Code Pink.) I think I'd follow TR's lead on this: Protect and utilize family, and others who are a net asset. The rest will have to make do for themselves.
But now I live in an Apartment one Block over from the US Capital. I would like to know what a person living in a City could do to prepare. Living where I do my main concerns are.
I share this interest.
In my case, I live in San Antonio - 1.3 million people. My house is about as non-descript as it is possible to be, with sufficient supplies to live quite well for a couple weeks, and at a more austere level for a couple more.
The city offers some advantages. There is a degree of anonymity available nowhere else. There are so many organizations and groups that finding one or more compatible groups is easy. Supplies are easily available during normal times.
There is the disadvantage of the mob - that's a hard problem. But it seems unlikely they will go door to door...on the other hand, they might simply burn anything available.
Looking back to the 1929 depression, the cities received considerable aid and support, whereas the rural areas got far less - at least according to anecdotal reports from a few aging relatives. I note that our local schools feed children and their families both breakfast and lunch currently, and pack a snack for them to take home. This might form the nexus of a government relief strategy.
Finding a relocation area is problematic for me. Unlike Paslode, I don't have a group of cousins that I would rely on. Even determining a place has represented a barrier - while its true that one can find advantages for just about any place (perhaps even D.C. :D ), there are also drawbacks.
The Reaper
10-08-2009, 08:48
Let's be blunt and deal with reality here. I do not want to panic anyone or be a doomsayer. These scenarios may never happen. We and our children may live out our little American dreams blissfully. I personally suspect that the odds are against that though. Prepare as much or as little as you deem necessary. I am not trying to influence anyone to do any more or less that they are comfortable with. At the same time, the scenarios we are talking about have a serious risk, if you fail to prepare.
One good EMP, or failure of the utility and transportation nodes and you are going to write off a lot of segments who depend upon regular resupply. We are talking about a recovery period of as little as a week, or worst case, possibly never.
A 72-hour outage will deplete almost all commercial establishments of merchandise, either by a buying spree, or through looting. There is no longer a large stockroom in the back of stores, there is a pallet breakdown and return area. The average American family has a week or so of food on hand. 2% of Americans are engaged in agriculture, and that is consolidated and highly dependent on heavy equipment and resupply. The little truck farms are not going to support the millions of people that likely live in your state. The midwest grain harvest takes a lot of support and transport to deliver as a loaf of bread to your local grocery store. Banks hold a day's worth of cash. Maybe. Paper currency has almost no backing in real resources and is only as valuable as people are willing to exchange for it. Gas stations have maybe three days supply when people are not panicked. You get everyone trying to get cash and stock up with everything they can buy, things are going to get ugly and cleaned out fast. Remember the gas stations after Katrina? We had a couple run out, and then everyone was lined up to top off before they all were out, which emptied many more. I suspect that the looting will start the second night after the incident occurs, and the stores will not open for sales again till the crisis is over. Gun stores will be cleaned out in less than half a day. Pharmacies as well. Anything you do not have on hand if this goes down, if it ever does, you may never be able to get.
Run down the scenario. When the flu pandemic starts, EMP hits, economy crashes, terrorists hit, people are going to start staying home, either to care for their sick family members, or out of fear. Some of those people staying home will be the ones who harvest the food, pack it, transport it, stock it, run the registers, etc. When half of the drivers are out sick and the truck does not arrive on time at the local Wally World, first person notes some empty shelves, they are going to panic, buy up everything they can, and then rush home to tell their friends. The remaining two days of supply are going to be gone in two hours. How many people have seen what happens in the South when the weatherman predicts an inch or two of snow? The people who arrive and are told that they are out are going to start a run on banks, stores, pharmacies, gas stations, etc. It will not take much to start this cascading system failure. We are extremely dependent on our utility and transportation nodes. When one aspect fails, it affects several others, which affects dozens more. You take the electric grid off line, even for just a week, you are going to see some real Medieval things, and the recovery could take months.
Anyone who requires meds who does not have an extended supply covering the duration of the crisis (possibly a year or more) is going to die. This includes diabetics, cardiac patients, dialysis patients, ICU patients, NICU patients, nursing home patients, non-ambulatory patients, anyone on oxygen, with a pacemaker or other electronic implant, cancer patients, Alzheimer's patients, etc. Sad, but true.
What is going to happen to people in the prisons if this happens? Will they be left to die in their cells, will they be released, will they escape?
How about the mentally unstable who live among us and are medicated to some sort of normalcy? What will happen when they can not get their Prozac, lithium, or whatever?
How many people will kill themselves when the food ran out a week ago and they see what looks like a hopeless situation confronting them?
People who are sufficiently handicapped so that they cannot adapt and become members of groups living a largely pre-Civil War frontier agrarian lifestyle, with the ability to hunt, trap, farm, fight, and keep a primitive house will have a very high casualty rate once reality sets in.
People who live in the desert who do not have access to a ready water supply are going to be in a bad position. Irrigation will stop when the power fails. People in extreme cold weather climates are going to be in bad shape, if the crisis is during the winter or lasts into one and they are not prepared to live like natives. People in extremely hot climates who do not live in appropriate structures and understand how to survive are going to learn some harsh lessons. South Florida, Arizona, New Mexico, etc. were lightly inhabited for many years before AC for a good reason.
Diseases are going to run rampant as sanitation and health care breaks down. I have seen malaria, typhoid, cholera, dysentery, pneumonia. A small cut or puncture could be life threatening. No IVs, antibiotics, pain meds, innoculations, X-Rays, clean hospitals with lots of medical professionals. The old killers are going to become familiar here again, if the system breaks down. How many have been putting off dental appointments? No more fillings or crowns or dentures. You get a bad tooth, you pull it. You get an infection, you may die. Simple.
Anyone in a large metro area who does not hit the roads early to a good destination or have the ability to hole up for the duration is probably not going to make it, unless they want to become predators. If you were stuck in a large metro area with a family to provide for, and running out of food and supplies, how long would it take before you started kicking doors on unoccupied looking dwellings searching for food for your kids? What do you do when one is occupied? What do you do when the fire comes? Where do you get fresh water or go to the bathroom if the water systems are offline? How do you negotiate a highway that was packed and at a dead stop when they shut off? Remember Rita? When you live in the suburbs, and the Interstate is three blocks away, what will happen when 3 million people realize that help isn't coming, and start their exodus. What do you do when an armed gang of 20 people or more shows up on your street and starts looting, burning, raping, and killing? Or you sit at home and live peacefully off your stocks till they run out. Help has still not arrived. Your family is okay, but has three days of food left, and no where to go. Then what?
What is going to happen when the police, firemen, paramedics, garbagemen, water treatment workers, doctors, nurses, etc., etc. either cannot or will not go to work because they are too busy caring for their families? Anyone remember the great city fires of the past? Guess what happens when one starts again (possibly by looters), and there are no firemen, fire trucks, or water pressure?
Sadly, many Americans in this scenario are going to die at the hands of other Americans. There is a large underclass in this country dependent upon charity/welfare. There are criminal and former criminals among us. There are gangs. They have maybe two days of food on hand, and cash only when they get it from someone else. They live in government housing, and have few resources. Many of them have criminal backgrounds and drug issues. How many days of supply of illegal drugs do you think an average US city contains? When that supply line breaks down, what do you think the addicts will do for another fix? Did anyone notice how long it took for the hospitals and pharmacies to be attacked after Katrina hit? IMHO, it was largely after the supply of street drugs ran out in the isolated communities. Remember the people who claimed they were looting to feed their families, and the shopping carts they were taking away were full of beer, wine, and whiskey? Gangs will organize and start looking for resources. It is the natural way of things.
Our crisis response system is based on sending in help from unaffected areas to help those who are in the crisis area. If the entire nation is affected, we are going to be on our own.
A properly placed EMP is going to fry all power generation and unshielded electronics in this country. That means cars, trucks, airplanes (3,000 over the US daily at peak hours, and they have to come down somewhere, out of control) railroads, phones, computers, radios, TVs, water treatment, sewage pumps, gas pumps, refineries, manufacturing plants, combines, tractors, anything with a chip controlling it is going to be pretty much permanently disabled. Do some research. And all you need is to be able to get the weapon well into the atmosphere and you can take out the entire US with one medium warhead. That falls well within the capability of any nation with a ballistic missile, or the ability to buy one. it doesn't need to be long range. You want to launch it from within the US or offshore on a cargo vessel or submarine to prevent retaliation.
A national emergency lasting more than a week is going to kill thousands. A month will kill tens or hundreds of thousands. A year could easily cut the population by more than half, and life expectancy in the U.S. is going to drop back into the 50s or less, IMHO. The country would drop back to a population supportable by the resources available. That is a fact of life.
(Cont.)
The Reaper
10-08-2009, 09:17
Again, not trying to panic anyone. The above disasters may never occur. OTOH, an extra month or two of food and a few hundred dollars worth of preparations don't cost that much, and could make all of the difference in the world. Think about it, and decide what you are going to do.
TR
TR,
Sir, thank you for taking the time to post this valuble information.
In our last ice-storm, using the ideas from the Be Prepared thread yielded realistic results during the catastophy.
Cannot put a dollar amount on this type of knowledge, IMHO.
Holly
frostfire
10-08-2009, 09:56
But now I live in an Apartment one Block over from the US Capital. I would like to know what a person living in a City could do to prepare. Living where I do my main concerns are.
Please add your recomendations..........
I second Kgoerz inquiry.
I'm a rolling stone, so I never have plan to create a long sustainable resident. After many hurricane/flood relief missions to include the most recent one, I've also become (very) minimalist. Digging up and disposing tons of molded clothes, theatre speakers, flat screen TV did that to you. All my belongings fit to a coupe and I still have room for one passenger. This thread made me check my egress bag. Much to my chagrin, most of the drugs have expired :boohoo
When this thread grows to 70+ pages, I hope ya'll don't mind if I PM those who're ready to create & sustain an Amish-type colony for address and GPS coordinate :D. I'll be an asset and won't be a burden to anyone. I eat twice a day, fit, not picky, I'd make a good builder/handyman, as well as medical personnel, and a good shot too.
A 72-hour outage will deplete almost all commercial establishments of merchandise, either by a buying spree, or through looting. There is no longer a large stockroom in the back of stores, there is a pallet breakdown and return area. The average American family has a week or so of food on hand.
Back in 2001 we had a ice storm that knocked out power in my little suburb for 1 to 2 weeks depending on which grid you were located. My power was out for 14 days.
Within hours of the power outage every hotel in the area was booked, the gas stations were offline and the grocery store shelves were very sparse. Bottled water, canned goods, Ice, generators, batteries, flashlights, firewood and propane tanks were nonexistent. Lines in the stores....it might take an hour to check out. Gas stations outside the area were swamped.
Within hours, it was like a ghost town around here.
My wife opted for the comforts of home so she and my son stayed at her parents out East. For 12 of the 14 days I stayed at home, I had running water, hot water, a fireplace, a sleeping bag, the propane grill and my dog.
After that minor inconvenience a good many people needed help and became victims of contractor fraud. They were little more than lambs awaiting slaughter.
That minor inconvenience gives you a pretty good glimpse of how many people will react. They scurry to grab anything they can lay their hands on and they head to a place that offers the appearance of comfort and safety.
I was not prepared in the sense we have discussed, but I didn't panic, I was resourceful, made use of what was available to me and I was able to take care of myself.
This thread has proven to be invalubale to me. My Uncle, God Bless Him, died a couple of weeks ago, and all of us kids (my brother and sisters) were at the funeral. As we were sitting at my aunt's house talking about growing up and all the good times we shared, we kept coming back to the times we spent at another Aunt and Uncle's cabin in Wyoming. I say cabin but it truly more than that, pretty much what Nmap described. Neither aunt or uncled are doing well, and had to sell the property, and we were lamenting on how much it sucked that we didn't know about it, because the 4 of us would have gone in on it together and bought it. Come to find out, the property is back on the market.
We have all discussed it for the past couple of weeks, on how nice it would be to have that place back, where all of us could take our families for vacation, etc. Now with this thread, it truly has my head spininng and hoping this is something we can actually do.
It is in a location where all of us, (mom, dad, brother, sisters and families could all easily reach in 2 days time. 7 Hours for most of them) Although not as much land as Nmap stated, it is on a few acres in the woods, where game is very very abundant. The local population is less than 300. The closest metropolitan area over 100K is a good 7 hours away. There is a creek running through the back of the property, where the water always flows, albeit colder than hell, but flowing. A fish hatchery is less than .5 miles away. The location usually is under about 4-5 feet of snow in the winter, so the fireplace was built in such a manner to heat the whole house, with a backup generator already in place. There is an outbuilding which used to hold 3 snowmobiles, but could now hold our 3 ATVs, as well as big enough to hold enough supplies for all of us for at least 6 months. With the snow and creek, water is abundant year round. Allowing the property to become overgrown would take 3-4 months tops.
My father, my husband, my son, and myself all have military experience. Mom is a nurse, Husband EMT quaified. My father, mother, myself, husband, and son are all qualified on handguns and shotguns, and between us probably own close to 10 well maintained weapons., with about 6-8 months worth of ammo. My son's personal sidearm as an MP, is a true sight to behold.
All of us kids were raised camping, hiking and fishing, and all of our children the same. Learning to hunt would be our biggest problem, but between my dad and my husband none of us would go hungary based on their backgrounds.
If we can get this piece of property back into the hands of our family, we could very probably survive the given scenario. Don't know if I could go that long without smothering my Brother-in-law though:p
Definintely a thought provoking thread.
BTW the Mayan Calendar ends on my step-daughter's 21st birthday. I wonder if that means something!!!!
That is a gorgeous cabin, Afchic.
If one takes a look at the dollar, at gold, and at silver one can imagine that inflation will occur. There are worse things than land under such a scenario. So, perhaps, it has investment value in more than one sense.
The Reaper
10-08-2009, 11:05
Beautiful place. I could see vacationing there.
Brutal winters though. Can you cut the wood you would need to keep it warm close enough to make it work?
Have you ever been there in the dead of the winter?
Have you seen the water flowing then?
Who owns the surrounding land? Federal parks can make good neighbors.
I would verify that it is in good shape, then work on the water and septic system, the power and generator, the wood supply, underground fuel tanks, consider adding insulation and a wind or solar backup, and perhaps adding a barn or secure outbuilding for storage.
I would consider it a good opportunity, IF you feel close enough to the others to work on it together. I would want a really firm commitment, and test it by working up a schedule for your different family members to visit it monthly to maintain it, do chores, collect wood, etc. That could make for a nice vacation.
You are in a great position, if you can get a good price on it.
TR
Beautiful place. I could see vacationing there.
Brutal winters though. Can you cut the wood you would need to keep it warm close enough to make it work?
Have you ever been there in the dead of the winter?
Have you seen the water flowing then?
Who owns the surrounding land? Federal parks can make good neighbors.
I would verify that it is in good shape, then work on the water and septic system, the power and generator, the wood supply, underground fuel tanks, consider adding insulation and a wind or solar backup, and perhaps adding a barn or secure outbuilding for storage.
I would consider it a good opportunity, IF you feel close enough to the others to work on it together. I would want a really firm commitment, and test it by working up a schedule for your different family members to visit it monthly to maintain it, do chores, collect wood, etc. That could make for a nice vacation.
You are in a great position, if you can get a good price on it.
TR
Have been there in the dead of winter, and the creek is deep enough that the water flows, you have to go down a couple of feet, but we spent a lot of time ice fishing on it as kids, so I know it will work.
Cutting wood for the winter is another thing we did as kids, abundant enough supply for MILES and MILES. With the ATVs, hauling back and forth shouldn't be too bothersome, as long as we can keep enough fuel stored. Water is well water, and is on a septic tank that was just replaced about 5 years ago. Brand new roof. Solar panels on the side of the roof you can't see from the picture. Underground fuel storage would definitly be something to look into.
We looked at opening the offer up to all the cousins, but decided against it. We have even decided if we do it we aren't telling anyone about it and will do it through a trust. I trust my brothers and sisters completely to do it with them. Mom and Dad, plus sisters are about 7 hours a way and making monthly trips up to check on things and build up stocks is no biggie.
The only issue will be neighbors. Neighbors are still all the folks we grew up with as kids, but they are getting older, like my aunt and uncle, and when that happens, and the surrounding properties belong to someone we don't know.... Could prove to be a problem.
That is a gorgeous cabin, Afchic.
If one takes a look at the dollar, at gold, and at silver one can imagine that inflation will occur. There are worse things than land under such a scenario. So, perhaps, it has investment value in more than one sense.
I truly believe that land is the best investment today. As someone once told me. The price of Dirt never go's down. I hope to be able to purchase 50 Acres in about one more year. I could get it now. But I would rather just save up and pay cash.
We all know the saying, location, location, location when buying a house. It's even more important when buying land. Know the zoning laws in the county you purchase. That way someone doesn't purchase 10 Acres next to you and turn it into a trailer park. Where I lived you had to own 3 Acres to build a House. 10 Acres to put in a trailer.
Look for Neighbors who are retired. Ones that aren't likely to sell. Look for land butted up against park land. I had only 45 Acres. But I had 3000 Acres of Timberland as my back yard.
The two people who had land attached to mine were excellent. They had 60 and 30 Acres. We all shared each others land for Hunting/Fishing purposes.
armymom1228
10-08-2009, 12:24
Have been there in the dead of winter, and the creek is deep enough that the water flows, you have to go down a couple of feet, but we spent a lot of time ice fishing on it as kids, so I know it will work.
Cutting wood for the winter is another thing we did as kids, abundant enough supply for MILES and MILES. With the ATVs, hauling back and forth shouldn't be too bothersome, as long as we can keep enough fuel stored. Water is well water, and is on a septic tank that was just replaced about 5 years ago. Brand new roof. Solar panels on the side of the roof you can't see from the picture. Underground fuel storage would definitly be something to look into.
We looked at opening the offer up to all the cousins, but decided against it. We have even decided if we do it we aren't telling anyone about it and will do it through a trust. I trust my brothers and sisters completely to do it with them. Mom and Dad, plus sisters are about 7 hours a way and making monthly trips up to check on things and build up stocks is no biggie.
The only issue will be neighbors. Neighbors are still all the folks we grew up with as kids, but they are getting older, like my aunt and uncle, and when that happens, and the surrounding properties belong to someone we don't know.... Could prove to be a problem.
Consider a pair of wind generators and a large bank of AGM batteries.
The septic can be used for the methane it can produce.
Get to know the new neighbors. People that buy that kind of property usualy are not city folks, well not always. It is what we all used to do when a new family moved into the neighborhood. Take them a pie and take thier measure.
That is one beautiful house and the land sounds lucious.
AM
The Reaper
10-08-2009, 13:04
The only issue will be neighbors. Neighbors are still all the folks we grew up with as kids, but they are getting older, like my aunt and uncle, and when that happens, and the surrounding properties belong to someone we don't know.... Could prove to be a problem.
Sounds like an opportunity to add land and possibly include more like minded people in your community.
Lots of glass in the house. Excellent for views and morale, but not so much for insulation and security.
The rest sounds great. I could see living there. I hope that it works out for you.
Don't forget to stock a couple dozen salt blocks and some corn. Get the game used to coming to you.
TR
There's a really interesting article from a former Alaskan trapper at the following (link is not live per TS's recent request, remove the spaces in the w w w and paste): w w w.survivalblog.com/2009/09/letter_re_grub_and_gearlessons.html
He details his food and gear requirements for 5-6 months of Alaskan winter working a 200 set trapline, daily chopping wood, etc. It's a real eye-opener and should give anyone planning on wintering in a harsh environment some food for thought.
Dozer523
10-08-2009, 14:34
That is a gorgeous cabin, Afchic.. Yeah. Don't forget who got you minor league baseball tickets that one time:)
Yeah. Don't forget who got you minor league baseball tickets that one time:)
You and your reason for living, plus the center of your universe, and the boys are welcome to haul ass with us if the time comes!!! Little Dude will love the fish Hatchery and the creek.
dr. mabuse
10-08-2009, 16:29
Our family has a hideaway far, far, far off the beaten path. It's a vacation spot and a hide-out if things go awry. Been stockpiling since 1998.
We keep it run down looking just in case someone is hiking way, far away from known roads. Very discreet, short runway there. Have several ways to get there. 2 rivers on property.
Airplane is about 20 minutes away from home, ready to go, somewhat EMP protected (covered with a grounded semi-faraday cage cape when stored).
Still working on it....And I'm not a survivalist.:D
Utah Bob
10-08-2009, 17:29
Find a house off of the beaten trail.
That's me.:D
And Afchic, cabin?? That looks like the Governor's mansion!
The Reaper
10-09-2009, 19:12
Someone mentioned stragglers. Don't recall whom, so I apologize.
Perhaps a young woman with child (s). This moment is a tough one. The decision may tip the balance of food, room, or survivability either positively or negatively. I can't imagine rejecting a woman with child/children unless her behavior is beyond reality. Psycho types.
What if she has a husband and they display an angry nature towards each other at the checkpoint/entry point? What if they are let in and begin to show signs of untrustworthiness, but the children are innocent? Lots of what ifs with stragglers and non-residents.
Any thoughts?
Give them a meal and send them on.
You let her in, you may get to meet her male friends shortly after you go to sleep.
TR
Blitzzz (RIP)
10-09-2009, 19:17
As to stragglers, you must remember immediate survival for you and your family (to include close reliable friends planned for.), remember they can kill you in the middle of the night to protect their own and take yours. pure survival doesnot allow for the niceities of good society.
You and yours first. Stragglers can continue to Straggle.
armymom1228
10-09-2009, 20:21
Give them a meal and send them on.
You let her in, you may get to meet her male friends shortly after you go to sleep.
TR
Giver her a meal outside your perimeter. Inside she gets to see what defenses you have. OTOH, giving her a meal, can, to some individuals, indicate you are well prepared. It might make them bring back freinds to find out exactly how much extra you might have and figure out how to attain it. Its a slippery slope.
I am speaking academically here. I know myself well enough I would end up with half the nation in my living room and me trying to do the loaves and fishes trick. :lifter Probably why I tend to live out of the way.
armymom1228
10-09-2009, 20:37
Invite her in and she IS dinner ;)
Tastes like chicken?:p Might need a bit of fattening up if she is a straggler. :D
Tastes like chicken?:p Might need a bit of fattening up if she is a straggler. :D
Tastes like pork.
armymom1228
10-10-2009, 06:40
Tastes like pork.
A reason to try out TS's barbeque recipe?
There are some good works of fiction which offer thoughtful ideas related to such a scenario - Alas, Babylon and The Road are two which are also very good reads.
Richard
The Reaper
10-10-2009, 19:18
You people may find your jokes about cannibalism funny.
I am afraid that in the worst case, you may actually see that happen, when people get desperate. I am sure no one in the Donner party anticipated that they would have to eat their fellow settlers in order to survive.
If you think that is funny, wait till you find out that your pets are good sources of protein as well, when your family members are starving. That should be hilarious.
Read "One Second After" and make that joke.
I have been through a hurricane in Hawaii and made it through two weeks before my power was restored. My parents went through a similar period in NC. The good news with a hurricane is that help will be coming. In some of these scenarios, you may not know if assistance is coming at all.
TR
Peregrino
10-10-2009, 20:11
Saying that there are ways to farm that is hard to find. The local dope growers bury a connex box then grow inside of it with a ladder going down etc. Quite a set up, but doable. The reason they bury it is IR can pick it up inside a house.
Grow lights and hydroponics require resources (electricity and fertilizer) that won't be available in the scenarios being discussed. If you don't already have a copy of Square Foot Gardening or understand "double dug planting beds" you might have some problems with sustainable agriculture. Hopefully you've been collecting heirloom seeds (non-hybred).
Who said I was joking? I once heard that in the Soviet gulogs three people would escape together. One of them was food for the other two. Donner party, the soccer team in the Andes and supposedly some Germans trapped in Stalingrad have all done it. While I can not imagine doing it, I know people will do a lot of things they never thought they would when it comes to surviving. Hopefully it would not come to that, but lets face it, untill you are in that situation you don't really know what you will do.
Saying that there are ways to farm that is hard to find. The local dope growers bury a connex box then grow inside of it with a ladder going down etc. Quite a set up, but doable. The reason they bury it is IR can pick it up inside a house.
Cannibalism is still practiced in the world, and not just humans. All insects, and many mammals do also. Would it surprise you to know that "all" primates do? Are we that different?
Successful cannibalism does not wait for a victim to first die, they take it.
Why wait for a dieseased, malnutrious, starving body? I'm taking the one with the largest "back-straps" early in the game.
Blitzzz (RIP)
10-10-2009, 20:40
One of the African cannibal tribe's word for "anyone" outside there imediate group translates to "Long Pig"...I agree with TS not so funny..
The Majority of Americans have no clue to the realalities of pure survival.
So don't challange anyone with the old ..."eat me" response.
armymom1228
10-10-2009, 21:13
One of the African cannibal tribe's word for "anyone" outside there imediate group translates to "Long Pig"...I agree with TS not so funny..
The Majority of Americans have no clue to the realalities of pure survival.
So don't challange anyone with the old ..."eat me" response.
NO, its not really funny. In my case, it is black humor born of being in situations where the only way to deal with the situation at hand is to make very very bad jokes, or sit down and cry in horror.
We can plan for what might happen, but, in truth, one never knows what one will do until one is in that scenario for real. Sometimes people do things that under normal circumstances they would never do, or endure to survive. I don't think it always equates to the those who are trained either or best prepared. Sometimes, it seems that the will to survive is stronger than all the prep in the world. The training and prep do significantly raise the chances though.
I grew up on the Gulf Coast before FEMA. The only thing we had to rely on or help us was ourselves. I survived Camille as a 17 yr old visitng my aunt and uncle in Biloxi. It left me with a strong desire to learn how to take care of myself and my own should the poop hit the fan. Last hurricane for me was Wilma, and that was ridden out on my sloop hiding in the mangroves of the Little Shark River.
There are a lot of books out there of survivors after a storm hitting a sailboat that makes one amazed at how resilient the human animal is.
Once upon a time, back in 1945, the U.S. Agriculture Department started the "green revolution" - which emphasized mechanization, irrigation, artificial fertilizers and pesticides, and specialized plantings. They expected to increase yields, and so they did. This sustained the growth in global population from about 2.5 billion in 1950 to the present 6.7 billion.
Odd thing about population - it tends to go above the available food supply before it crashes. And while its crashing, people eat anything and everything they can, including each other. I have mentioned "Overshoot" by Catton - it discusses our predicament.
In our scenario, the web of production is interrupted by something suddenly. But we need not restrict ourselves - the situation could develop over time. It might involve production and delivery (an oil problem, perhaps), or a problem with farm credit and weather problems - or even social instability. We assume that food will be available, abundant and cheap because during our lifetimes it always has been. (Of course, I recognize that some here have gone into situations and environments where that is not true. That's why their insights are of such great value - they have seen what I am blind to.) I suspect that many of our civilian leaders are oblivious to the possibility of a supply interruption. Which means we may not be able to expect help quickly, even in a regional crisis.
A theme within the thread seems to be that social breakdown occurs rather quickly when the infrastructure fails. And people go out of the cities to the countryside looking for food. It's probably fair to say that every bit of livestock, from the horses to the chickens will go into the stew-pot. Which triggers the rhetorical question: from what stock will we rebuild those flocks, herds, or whatever? Thus, after the crisis begins, food production might decline sharply for quite some time, making the situation even worse.
I cannot help but think that we will see some failed states due to the same dynamics we've discussed here. The behavior of those states could be interesting - and dangerous.
Can it happen here? Back in 1985, San Antonio had snow. Thirteen inches, in fact! It was largely gone within a couple days - but that was long enough for the grocery store shelves to be stripped. I think we should not relegate a crisis to big events. I think regional problems could occur just as suddenly and unpredictably as New Orleans after Katrina. But this may imply that relocation must be on a fairly sensitive trigger.
I appreciate the wisdom I've had the opportunity to read here. Thank you.
BTW - seriously, read "One Second After". For planning purposes if nothing else. But be prepared to be depressed for days later.
A theme within the thread seems to be that social breakdown occurs rather quickly when the infrastructure fails.
My family stems from rurual Wyoming. Early stories of our family, lived in dugouts in hill sides. Stored salted meats and ate potatoes. In the spring they found wild asparagus, which is odd since, asparagus is native to Africa and Asia, perhaps it was the Chinese who brought it here. I digress...
Infrastruction is like alcohol, one finds themselves dependent when exposed to or relies on to often. We no longer live in a dugout, although it is still there, dirt roof, cedar post beams and all. And while it is a great fort for kids to play in, we occasionally store tractor tires and kerosene.
Our neighbors have similar settings - collectively we have infrastructure, we have pottable water, sepic tanks, food, fuel. We have trade, animals for equipment, a "new puppy for the use of the welder".
Rurual settings, townships less than 100,000 will be better off. Collectively thay can defend themselves from invaders, leaving cities in parties less than 1000, hungry, tired less equiped. Parties over 1000 are better off staying where they are, but will require a heavy handed LEADER to establish control, a precarious situation.
If a band of 20-50 have to travel in greater distances of 100 miles, they simply run into other bands. Small groups of 3-5, are the greatest threat.
Having said all this, I close in saying, I beleive in the human spirit, one will know whom to trust and whom to fear. Trust causiously.
My advise would be to become less dependent on anything, also, when nephew Billy, National Guard member is called to aid the local Sheriff, have him draw the APC, with accompanying .50M2, be sure to park it along the driveway at grandma's house over watching Hwy 32. Cousin Frank will...
Dozer523
10-11-2009, 05:02
You and your reason for living, plus the center of your universe, and the boys are welcome to haul ass with us if the time comes!!! Little Dude will love the fish Hatchery and the creek. On our way out we'll make one last stop by my place of work. There are a few items (quite a few) we might want to take along. It's good to know the combination.:) Guess someone better pick up a re-loader rig. We better get a big panel truck. Anyone work at an ASP?
Random thoughts on the gene pool, stragglers, farmers, herders and marauders.
Marauders would be like locusts. Travelling through the land producing nothing, eating everything. They would probably eat the last breeding pair of goats in North America without a second thought and move on looking for the next meal.
Which brings us to herders, farmers and organization. After the Survival stage has passed people will need to organize with their neighbors. Will this develope into a militia type system or a serf type system where the local sheriff uses the deputies to control and "tax" the farmers and herders for "protection".
And now the gene pool. Going to grow old and die off leaving nobody to carry on? Got a younger couple forted up with you who has all girls? All Boys?
Might want to do a little more thinking on "who" are your neighbors and what talents they could bring to your inner circle.
Joe Billy Bob down the road with his wife and six kids might seem like someone to stay away from but if him and the boys run the woods and get a deer or wild hog every time they lift a rifle and his wife and girls got a big garden out back and they can everything in it..........
Well, might want to lay in a few more nitro packed, mylar bagged 5 gallon pails of rice and wheat.
Knowledge of how things were done could be a valuable commodity. A person with common sense who memorizes the Foxfire books and shares that knowledge with a community would become a sort of wizened village elder of note and an asset for the survival of the community to be protected and preserved.
I have the first nine of the set and have found them to be both useful and entertaining* - as have my three sons.
Richard's $.02 :munchin
* Disclaimer: I am not claiming to possess common sense or wisdom - just stating I do have the books and have always enjoyed reading them.
Scimitar
10-11-2009, 13:37
Forgive me if this is a digression.
I'd be interested to hear thoughts on what would happen to Military bases in such a crisis. I'd like to think law and order would prevail due to the generally higher level of discipline and structure etc.
I guess it would come down to food supplies. How much does a base generally hold? Not a lot I imagine. Also I imagine that the military does have strategic supplies spread here and there.
Would our civilization really fall over or would our military bases become places of refuge and little fiefdoms where growth can start again. Instead of the 13 colonies it would be the 202 bases. Of course some are set-up better then others.
I would foresee senior military commanders taking the initiative and capturing all resources and running fiefdoms of sanctuary....or maybe not.
S
A lot of information is public; for example, the 2008 MRE contracts are listed HERE (http://www.mreinfo.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=19&t=2462). Based on that, I would guess that there were about 46 million MRE meals produced. That sounds like a lot, but in a crisis situation, it would be expended quickly.
Although I suspect many would welcome military assistance, I cannot help but wonder how civilian authorities would interact with the military. I sense the possibility of differences of opinion - which might be problematic in the case of an extensive breakdown with limited (or no) resupply.
There is another problem. It is my understanding - based on a short period a spent as a volunteer with the local emergency management office - that laws exist at every level which enable the authorities to seize any and all private property at need. Thus, another good reason to be as gray as possible. Now if we combine this with the possibility of military involvement with the civilian community, I can imagine a confrontation between a small group of prepared civilians and the military. Even if no shots are fired, I suspect hard feelings are assured.
This also connects with the question of how civilians should comport themselves in such an environment. I suspect that civilians, such as I, might not really understand how to behave. That could create some friction too, perhaps.
The Reaper
10-11-2009, 17:15
A lot of information is public; for example, the 2008 MRE contracts are listed HERE (http://www.mreinfo.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=19&t=2462). Based on that, I would guess that there were about 46 million MRE meals produced. That sounds like a lot, but in a crisis situation, it would be expended quickly.
That is enough MREs to feed 42,000 people 3 meals per day for one year, or a little more than two weeks of MREs for every person in the active duty military.
TR
Scimitar
10-13-2009, 01:45
Interesting stuff...Don't we have strategic fuel reserves for a year or something...or has that also disappeared in plain sight under our very noses with out us seeing...
S
Interesting stuff...Don't we have strategic fuel reserves for a year or something...or has that also disappeared in plain sight under our very noses with out us seeing...
S
We do have strategic fuel reserves for some un-specified amount of time, but if fails the solve the simple process of moving raw resources by distribution in an uncertain social melt-down scenario. Just getting materials from one location to another, let alone the refinery of product would be an undertaking never seen before and it would not happen quickly.
The DOE reports the size of the reserve HERE (http://www.spr.doe.gov/dir/dir.html). It totals 725 million barrels as of Oct 12, 2009.
Per the EIA, we use 19,498,000 bbls per day. LINK (http://www.eia.doe.gov/basics/quickoil.html), and we import 9,783 ,000 bbls per day (same link).
So even if we assume that the domestic industry is untouched, we have less than 80 days of supply. Thus, some hypothetical disaster in the Saudi fields would probably have an adverse impact on us in the U.S.
Also, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers prepared a report in 2005 that speaks to the issue. It is available HERE (http://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=A440265&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf)
My impression - which may be wrong and should be taken with a few grains of salt - is that other priorities have prevented much implementation.
The Reaper
10-13-2009, 07:23
It isn't just the crude, it is the refineries.
The environmentalists, NIMBYists, and the politicians in their pockets have made it impossible to build additional capacity.
We run our refineries very close to full capacity, there isn't a lot of reserve.
When Katrina hit, several refineries had either been hit, or closed till the storm passed. Many key employees had dispersed, and it takes time to get critical personnel back on site to restart the facility. Prices spiked and supplies tightened, creating a run and spot shortages throughout the South. That was a small taste of what you could anticipate with a supply disruption or refinery closure.
Those who plan to travel hundreds of miles to sit out the crisis better consider that and have extra treated fuel on hand with a program to get going early.
Speaking of which, in the event of a total breakdown, those highways will not be open for long. One of the easiest ways to get supplies would be to set up roadblocks and take what you need from refugees. This could be criminal activity, or government ordered.
TR
Fixin' to get winter time in the midwest, mountain passes, etc.
Time to check your cross country cars. Shovel, sand, minimum survival gear and food in the trunk?
You along the major routes - ready for that knock on the door in the middle of the night? Who will it be?
Perhaps this woman is a wife of someone on this site visiting her inlaws while her man serves his patriotic duty. I will choose whether to keep or bring her home according to sustainability and an extended interview conversation. This assessment/interview should have started with a forward scouting party along this avenue of approach. All will sleep under the gun until a decision is figured out. My wife says she needs some help around the house anyway and a few healthy kids wouldn't hurt our little neighborhood a bit.:)
Its cool that you foresee the road providing domestic servants for you.:rolleyes:
Fixin' to get winter time in the midwest, mountain passes, etc.
Time to check your cross country cars. Shovel, sand, minimum survival gear and food in the trunk?
You along the major routes - ready for that knock on the door in the middle of the night? Who will it be?
Late fall through Winter (October through Mid-March) in the Midwest can be the worst possible time for events such as nmap has presented to occur. You never really know what your going to get, one day it can be sunny and 50, and the next 20 and freezing rain. The weather is very unpredictable.
On the other hand, roads tend to be vacant and many folks stay close to home when cold and bad weather approaches....which in my area could be used to advantage for those looking to vacate the city.
Its cool that you foresee the road providing domestic servants for you.:rolleyes:
If I may be permitted to add something on Rangertab1's behalf...
We are used to having hundreds of slaves. You, I, and those reading this all enjoy the benefits of those well-behaved slaves.
The average human, pedaling, produces about 125 Watts. LINK (http://hypertextbook.com/facts/2003/WeiLiangMok.shtml)
A 4.6 Liter V8 produces about 185 KW. LINK (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_F-Series)
So it's easy to see that the owner of a car or truck has the equivalent of 100 slaves or more.
In a disrupted world that no longer has those energy slaves, people will have to do the work. That means grinding wheat, kneading bread, hauling wood, or whatever. It is most unlikely that the society can afford to let anyone - from children to the most elderly - remain idle.
The price for living within a community is likely to include a great deal of hard physical work - and without that contribution, the community will not long survive. So it is not a matter of becoming a servant - rather, it is part of being a contributing member of a group that survives.
All MOO, YMMV.
GratefulCitizen
10-15-2009, 22:50
Survival scenarios could range from sudden collapse to gradual decay.
If you intend to retain some form of mechanized transportation, some forethought may be warranted.
MOO:
-Don't overinvest. Those resources may be better placed elsewhere.
-Durability vs. reliability.
Most vehicles are designed to be reliable enough given present access to maintenance and repair facilities/personnel.
The rest of the design is focused on durability (bang for your buck).
In a stretched-out survival situation, a vehicle needs to be durable enough.
Once that requirement is met, reliability given the new circumstances becomes more important.
*****
Some considerations:
What are the weak links in the vehicle "system".
-Is the vehicle presently multi-fuel or can it readily be converted to multi-fuel?
-How dependent is the vehicle on critical systems/components.
-Can spare parts be easily found/installed?
Diesels sound great because of their ability to run on fuels other than diesel.
Not so fast.
Some of them are quite picky.
Anything made after 1996 have electronics which could throw fits for all sorts of reasons. Good luck finding a computer to clear trouble codes.
Biodiesel may not be a good option in colder climates. It can solidify inside the fuel system. Might not get to use the vehicle again 'til summer.
This being said, many diesels from the mid-80's and earlier are well suited to run on various fuels, provided the fuel is well-filtered and any water is removed.
The GM 6.2 diesel has indirect injection and runs well on just about any form of oil. (I know a rancher who runs hers on used hydraulic fluid.)
If you buy one, make sure to replace the injection pump right away. Better safe than sorry.
If you want a robust spark-ignition engine, there are a few things to consider.
Get a carburetor. Fewer things to go wrong. You can run, for a time and with worse performance, on ethanol/methanol/gasoline mix.
Put an air-cleaner type propane dual-fuel carburetor on top of your liquid carburetor.
Get a "cheater" hook up to your propane line so you can hook up BBQ grille bottles.
Make sure your fuel pump is mechanical, not electric. (Part of the carburetor deal.)
Make sure your water pump is mechanical.
Many engines can be fitted with a magneto distributor. They can run without an alternator.
Other issues.
Tires and starting are the weakest links (excepting fuel) in your vehicle "system".
Make sure it has a manual transmission. Most auto trannies can't be push-started.
Make sure it has standard 5-lug wheels and brakes small enough to accept 15-inch wheels. You can put bigger wheels on smaller hubs, but not vice versa.
Make sure to have several different wrench sizes for removing lugs. (Yeah, it's a little Mad Max, but that's the thread.)
Undo the positive battery terminal if it's not being driven. Any vehicle can develop a power "leak".
Air down your tires when driving off-road. Not lower than about 20 psi for passenger tires, 25 psi for load range "E" and stiffer tires.
Airing down your tires will improve traction and resist punctures.
I have some other, more specific thoughts if anyone is interesting in continuing this line.
The Reaper
10-16-2009, 09:17
The main reason a diesel sounds good to me is that you can store the fuel for extended periods (like years), if properly treated, and gasoline, even when treated, is good for six months to a year.
TR
GratefulCitizen
10-16-2009, 14:02
The main reason a diesel sounds good to me is that you can store the fuel for extended periods (like years), if properly treated, and gasoline, even when treated, is good for six months to a year.
TR
Understood, sir.
Propane has some of the same advantages of diesel in this respect.
A carbureted vehicle will run on propane with minimal, cheap modifications.
However, method of transfer from bulk storage to vehicle tanks has to be considered.
I have some other, more specific thoughts if anyone is interesting in continuing this line.
I'm certainly interested in your thoughts on the matter. Please, go on.
armymom1228
10-17-2009, 08:08
Understood, sir.
Propane has some of the same advantages of diesel in this respect.
A carbureted vehicle will run on propane with minimal, cheap modifications.
However, method of transfer from bulk storage to vehicle tanks has to be considered.
Methane can be created almost endlessly from a properly functioning septic tank. Methane powered vehicles, stoves, and heaters either can be created or do already exist with plans for the conversion already in existence. UF, I know, had a whole dept devoted entirely to that research at one point in the past 20 yrs.
If you are going to store diesel, it needs to be treated with a biodcide yes. That is easily obtainable at any good marine store in storable sized containers with measuring stuff built in. You might also consider painting the inside of any underground tank you use with proper paint. I have, in my email, the name of the company that you can aquire such with a reasonable price tag. Had a long talk with the engineers about the proper coating paint for gasoline in a fiberglass tank.
My previous boat, built in 1962 in Holland, has fuel tanks integral to the hull. Ethanol gasoline will, over a short period of time disintergrate the hull. Therfore my choices were simple, reglass or paint. In looking around I found this paint, but sales person was an idiot. SHE told me that paint X was gtg and that they used it for 'jet fuel' tanks. Uh, hello missy, jet fuel is similar in composition to diesel not ethanol gasoline. I finally talked to an engineer AT the paint company who had a cow and said, "NO use paint number 98F, if you use 76F it will rot your boat hull." No lie,....already figured that out.. so IF you decide to do an underground tank, be very careful of what you intend on putting in it and what you use to coat the inside of the tank. For what it is worth, modern GRP tanks are not affected, in theory, by ethanol gasoline. The problem is that the gasoline attracts water like a magnet. IF you can get your hands on the old style stuff.. someone told me we still sell it in fla.. that is your best bet for storage..but as others have said, it is only a short term solution.
For the purposes of this thread. Watch government surplus sales as well as notices of IRS siezure auctions. I have seen diesel generators sold for pennies on the dollar at both of the above.
Someone previously mentioned mobility. If you can find OLD trucks that do not have all this emission stuff on them. They are far easier to keep running and maintain than any new vehicles. Fairly simple mechanics and all that.
Remember the KISS principle and how the Amish do it and do it well on that principle.
Was thinking about the GPS sats the other day. A group of us cruisers are sitting here in Reedville, Va, waiting out the nasty weather. Last night we all got together for gumbo aboard Indigo Moon and had this discussion about the zombies attacking. We pretty much all had the same reaction. Fire up the diesel, hopefully wil have time to fuel up and stockup..as if we arent always fueled and stocked up, if not, just head offshore and southbound for the 3rd world to hide out for the first 6 mos. Then the discussion got around to the satellites. We all think and agree that the satellites should remain up for yrs to come considering they are not powered by anything on the land. loran might, and could do down..but it is also still, at this point functioning and will for the forseeable future. Although its future is still up in the air. So gps'ing your cache's might be doable. However marking your caches by other means, as a backup, would be advisable.
Weather supposed to break monday. The all here will make a run south to Norfolk to head either offshore or south down the ICW. Me I am driving south to kinston and packingup the dtr.. MY boat is in storage for the winter or until my slip comes open in St Pete Municipal. This whole "if it all goes to hel in a handbasket" discussion is taking place in far to many places for me to continue to think of it as an academic exercise.
Teddy if you were to drop yourself into my world, you would think you were in a whole passle of Charlies.. we, all, have learned how to make do with nothing. It is a joke, but a true one, cruising is fixing your boat in some real exotic locales. You first learn to make do when you find out that that $3.60 part you desperately need from the states is going to cost you x and y and z to get into this 3rd world country and when you tote up the ransom it goes from $3.60 to 360.00 after s/h, customs and mordita (bakeesh) to get it past that dumbass in customs. It's not worth it, so you learn fast to fabricate.
AM
Scimitar
10-17-2009, 15:26
"This whole "if it all goes to hell in a hand basket" discussion is taking place in far too many places for me to continue to think of it as an academic exercise."
We're starting to experience a real increase of that conversation in our circles too. I like what one very smart level headed acquaintance of mine said on the topic.
"I'm not saying this is going to happen, but for the first time when I think about life planning I can no longer leave it off the table. In my eyes the chance of it happening has doubled over night and is now real enough that only a fool won’t take it as a very real variable."
Interesting stuff…
Scimitar
GratefulCitizen
10-18-2009, 15:11
I'm certainly interested in your thoughts on the matter. Please, go on.
Still of the opinion that one shouldn't overinvest.
No sense putting all of your eggs in one basket.
Older, carbureted 2-wheel drive pickups with manual transmissions are probably your best bet.
Used 4-wheel drives tend to be a bit more beaten up.
Get 2 Chilton's manuals for the vehicle. Keep one in it.
************************
I lean towards the '73 through '87 Chevy/GM 2-wheel drive 1/2 ton with small-block v-8s.
They aren't necessarily better than other trucks, but they're ubiquitous. Parts are cheap and standardized.
Front supsension and rear-end components are cross-compatible with many rear-wheel drive sedans produced by GM during that time.
The 1/2 ton 2-wheel drives also have standard 5-lug wheels and large wheel-wells. They can accept most wheels/tires with the 5 lug pattern.
The 1st generation small-block Chevys are also ubiquitous and many of the parts are standardized. Things like pulleys, pumps and starters matter.
The 90 degree V6 engines made by GM are just small-block v8s with 2 cylinders chopped out. They have many parts compatible with the v8s.
-Most manifolds are set up for spread-bore carburetors, but square/spread adapters can be had cheaply.
-Distributors are interchangable among the big-block and small-block Chevy v8s, with the exception of the tall-deck 427 truck motors.
-Most of the post-1962 starters are interchangable among the v8s and the 90 degree v6s.
-The flywheel/flexplates are interchangable among most of the pre-1986 small-blocks <=350 cid and the big-blocks <=427 cid.
The 400 small-block and 454 big-block flywheel/flexplates are unique to those engines. The 90 degree v6 flywheels are generally unique to those engines.
Flywheel/flexplates matter because of the ring gear. If an engine has an imbalance in compression, it may stop at the same point every time. This means the starter is always working the same part of the ring gear. Lose a few teeth and your starter is useless. Swapping out the flywheel/flexplate is an easy fix.
Things to look for (in the Chevys):
May want to ditch the quadra-jet, get an adapter and a smaller square-bore. Less power, but more reliable starting and more reliable overall.
Manual chokes are more reliable than electric chokes. May be worth installing.
If it has a metal fuel line going from the fuel pump to the carburetor, get it replaced with something flexible. Get an in-line fuel filter while you're at it.
If it has performance headers on it, replace the starter and heat shield it with aluminum or something. The heat wears out starters.
Make sure the transmission has its dust cover.
No sense wearing things out over such a cheap part.
************************
Off-roading.
2-wheel drive vehicles can do just fine in many off-road circumstances.
Take it from a UPS driver who goes places those trucks weren't meant to go.
-Learn how to drive your vehicle off-road. Do it near civilization.
-Shovels and patience are some of your best tools. If you're stuck, don't spin it down to the axles.
-Air down your tires. (Don't run this way on-road longer than necessary)
-Tire chains are effective in sand and mud. Learn how to mount them.
-Tire diameter makes up for a multitude of deficiencies.
-If in doubt, get out and look before going there.
-When turning around back/forth on sloped terrain, it's better to have the front wheels uphill than downhill.
-Never drive on wet ground that has recently been worked, even if it has been refilled. (pipelines/powerlines/phonelines/septic tanks/etc.)
If you need exceptional off-road performance, just get a Jeep.
Mini-bikes with large tires make good, cheap off-road transporation for one person and limited gear.
They can be converted to run off of propane. (BBQ grille bottles are cheap and easy to cache)
That's all I can think of right now.
fredscout
10-29-2009, 15:04
Katrina is a good example of this. Local LEO took off to take care of their own Family, who can blame them. When Hurricane Gustav hit last year. All the local LEO families were evacuated and taken care of before hand. But in an emergency this won't happen.
I had a House isolated from the main road on 45 Acres of land. I had the provisions, Ammo, Generators, gas all stored up. I'm sure I could of lived for over a year where I was. Well, thats all fine and dandy if you can afford a set up like this. Many can't.
I am saving now to be set up like this again in the future. You know the deal. Every ten years give away everything you own to the ex:D
But now I live in an Apartment one Block over from the US Capital. I would like to know what a person living in a City could do to prepare. Living where I do my main concerns are.
1. Escape, get the hell out of here: I always fill up my Tank when returning to the City. It is illegal to have any type of extra Gas stored in a container in your Truck here.
2. Still have my Ammo and Guns. I have a Go Bag with extra Mags and my AR locked and loaded by it's side. But thats more for the LEO in me. If an India type of Terrorist Attack happens here I want to be ready for them. I also have my personal Body Armor marked with Police on the front and back. Plus my Police Hat. Friendly fire is a big concern.
3. Have about two weeks of water and food.
4. $1000 in cash
5. Battery operated Radio and lantern/plenty of batteries.
6. All of my camping/wilderness survival Gear is stored in one container that I can easily grab.
Please add your recomendations..........
Several years ago I participated in an joint emergency preparedness planning session between Ontario & the state of MN. Perhaps the most revealing fact that I learned was that in the event of some case of mass conflagration, my state's first act would be to attempt to seal off the metro area. LEA etcs obvious aim to prevent mass exodus to the cabin country. That got my attention and thinking that in light of a gradual breakdown, I need to be able to get me and mine out via the black Cadillac's attached to the end of our legs. I'm certain that everyone on this thread will have their own ideas about getting their house on their back (in the event that there are members of this board that don't have the background, read up on kitting for the Appalachian trail), but one other tool that I found last year may prove useful to you as well: Nat Geo has some great topo software that enables you to do detailed route planning. I have planned, mapped and printed on water proof paper 300 miles of get out of dodge material.
Perhaps the most difficult thing for me in my planning has been the mindset angle. Not mine, but how I can get my urban spouse and young children going in a RIGHT NOW situation. Their mental map just doesn't include the parameters to egress as society crumbles. Think of it, for most civilians, the ability to observe the obvious and take dramatic action in a focused way is simply absent. What I've done to ease in the topic includes scouts, camping, orienteering and shooting to start establishing a skill set. I'd be interested to see any thoughts on preparing immediate family that are not geared up mentally.
Thanks to all for this thread.
The Reaper
10-29-2009, 15:25
Several years ago I participated in an joint emergency preparedness planning session between Ontario & the state of MN. Perhaps the most revealing fact that I learned was that in the event of some case of mass conflagration, my state's first act would be to attempt to seal off the metro area. LEA etcs obvious aim to prevent mass exodus to the cabin country. That got my attention and thinking that in light of a gradual breakdown, I need to be able to get me and mine out via the black Cadillac's attached to the end of our legs. I'm certain that everyone on this thread will have their own ideas about getting their house on their back (in the event that there are members of this board that don't have the background, read up on kitting for the Appalachian trail), but one other tool that I found last year may prove useful to you as well: Nat Geo has some great topo software that enables you to do detailed route planning. I have planned, mapped and printed on water proof paper 300 miles of get out of dodge material.
Perhaps the most difficult thing for me in my planning has been the mindset angle. Not mine, but how I can get my urban spouse and young children going in a RIGHT NOW situation. Their mental map just doesn't include the parameters to egress as society crumbles. Think of it, for most civilians, the ability to observe the obvious and take dramatic action in a focused way is simply absent. What I've done to ease in the topic includes scouts, camping, orienteering and shooting to start establishing a skill set. I'd be interested to see any thoughts on preparing immediate family that are not geared up mentally.
Thanks to all for this thread.
How do you plan to do that footmobile exfil in the fall/winter/spring?
The Appalachian Trail will be of little value unless your origin and destination are close to it. Assuming brigands are not ambushing parties moving along it. Easy pickins.
I recommend reading "One Second After" to get a small town impression of a larger town nearby in a disaster.
TR
Think of it, for most civilians, the ability to observe the obvious and take dramatic action in a focused way is simply absent.
Reminds me of the gawkers who slow way down during traffic to look at an accident.
fredscout
10-29-2009, 18:58
How do you plan to do that footmobile exfil in the fall/winter/spring?
The Appalachian Trail will be of little value unless your origin and destination are close to it. Assuming brigands are not ambushing parties moving along it. Easy pickins.
I recommend reading "One Second After" to get a small town impression of a larger town nearby in a disaster.
TR
Thanks, TR...I'll be picking up OSA directly it sounds like a good read over Halloween :rolleyes:
My basic strategy assumes a gradual breakdown as opposed to an immediate meltdown...but either way I'm approaching it as a straight up E&E situation out of the Twin Cities metro. I have a destination in outstate where my people are at, but in a catastrophe situation I have planned for avoiding built up areas in toto and sticking to a movement schedule of late afternoon/early evening and early morning...hoping for 5 miles in each movement with an initial push to clear the metro. Target one month to arrival at safe site.
I have some problems that I haven't quite noodled out on the logistics of carrying the food and load out, but I have it and I either need to get stronger or plan leaner because I can't carry it all myself and the kids will be running pretty light...the wife is strong and fit but small and her load won't go beyond 35lbs. I did a trial pack a couple of months ago and it was 85lbs!!!! I could do it at 25 but at 40 it's looking pretty heavy ;).
As far as the weather, I'm honestly taking a screw it attitude...if a nightmare scenario comes, we gotta go regardless. I do winter camping and hike year round...I've got to rely on my gear and my family's guts. Cold comfort (no pun intended) in February up here, but there it is. I simply do not believe that motorized transportation will be an option and anyone who gives it two seconds of thought would rule out staying put.
Hence my earlier question about mental fitness for my family...I've done the hardship routine but they have certainly not. I'd like to believe that there's a made for tv ending to our sojourn but I worry over my version of Sophie's Choice if I can't get them up for pushing through...I guess if it comes to that we'll all find out where the truth of our character lies.
As to the App trail reference, I just thought that if there were some folks reading who'd never done or planned for a long walk, they'd be able to reference material for the basics of gear, conditioning, etc.
The Reaper
10-29-2009, 19:14
Everyone can carry a third of their body weight.
If you are doing the movement in good weather, look at using bikes to help carry the load.
In winter, you need a heavier load for shelter and equipment, but your movement rate will be slowed or in some cases, completely stopped. Maybe snow machines, akhios, or sleds, and snowshoes or cross-country skis.
I don't have a really good answer for your situation, other than considering a move out of the city if the situation permits.
TR
fredscout
10-29-2009, 19:43
Cannibalism is still practiced in the world, and not just humans. All insects, and many mammals do also. Would it surprise you to know that "all" primates do? Are we that different?
Successful cannibalism does not wait for a victim to first die, they take it.
Why wait for a dieseased, malnutrious, starving body? I'm taking the one with the largest "back-straps" early in the game.
This line of conversation is intriguing to me and gives me cause to remember a formative experience that I had at the hands of a clever SF instructor over at McCall.
We were all in a classroom, about 20 of us or so, and were learning about propaganda as well as indoctrination. The instructor started going down a very conversational path about the US and this and that...and then started making some rather pointed observations about US culpability for various and sundry indiscretions down south of the border. At first a couple of guys argued with him, but he had superb command of his version of the facts. After about 20 minutes, virtually our entire group was doing the 'Damn, he's got a point' routine. I was 21 and not too clever on matters of international intrigue, but I clearly remember thinking 'Whoa, now..this doesn't feel right...we're America's best here...this can't be right' but I didn't say a thing.
The point to the instruction was that you had better know what you believe and why you believe it or when the chips are down you'll twist in the breeze.
I bring this up in reference to our current conversation because ultimately, to survive and then to rebuild in the aftermath of a nightmare, I would humbly suggest that we take care to remember that everything that could be counted as good in a society will need to come from us, the survivors. I wonder what impact the consumption of our fellow man, regardless of the situation, would have on our ability to establish a just society? Character is a bedrock thing and once it's compromised...
As a final caveat, I do not intend this as a preach or holier than thou...only as a reflection of my personal musing on where my own lines are drawn. And before anyone posts it, yes, I've been hungry and yes, I'm certain that all the norms and mores that I hold dear will be dust in the wind...but durn, I have to believe that good will triumph over evil and eatin' Joe or Jane is the wrong turn if one hopes to maintain their sanity.
Fredscout, even though I'm hesitant to get too far into the issue of cannibalism, it might be worthwhile to consider the Uruguayan airplane crash.
LINK (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uruguayan_Air_Force_Flight_571)
With regard to good and evil, the Norse Greenland Colony did not resort to cannibalism. Indeed they shared what they had with each other.
Except - they died. Every man, woman, and child.
So, then - what is good, and what is evil? (Purely rhetorical question that is personal to each of us.)
My basic strategy assumes a gradual breakdown as opposed to an immediate meltdown...
How gradual? This is a question I ask myself, and I haven't come up with a good answer.
In San Antonio, some years ago, the news was full of discussions of a hurricane. Of course, San Antonio is sufficiently inland that we're not at any real risk. But the stores were cleaned out of generators, and even the grocery stores had some notably empty shelves. When do people turn nasty? A day? Three? (Those are rhetorical questions)
If the breakdown is over 30 days, then relocation seems easy. One could, perhaps, charter a bus. (BTW - pink is the sarcasm color.)
Even a week wouldn't be too bad. Especially with bicycles, one could go quite a distance.
But what do you think? How long is gradual?
Well - since everyone's heading for the rural areas and building fortresses for the inevitable culture wars - I think I'll probably head on into the vacated urban areas and live in the vacated mansions with all the Mexican servants who generally have better survival instincts and skills than most modern day Norte Americanos anyway. :rolleyes:
Richard's jaded $.02 :munchin
The Reaper
10-29-2009, 20:46
How gradual? This is a question I ask myself, and I haven't come up with a good answer.
In San Antonio, some years ago, the news was full of discussions of a hurricane. Of course, San Antonio is sufficiently inland that we're not at any real risk. But the stores were cleaned out of generators, and even the grocery stores had some notably empty shelves. When do people turn nasty? A day? Three? (Those are rhetorical questions)
If the breakdown is over 30 days, then relocation seems easy. One could, perhaps, charter a bus. (BTW - pink is the sarcasm color.)
Even a week wouldn't be too bad. Especially with bicycles, one could go quite a distance.
But what do you think? How long is gradual?
Depends on what contingency you are preparing for.
An EMP could destroy this country as we know it in less than 1 second. A nuclear exchange could take a little longer, as would earthquakes, fire, floods, etc. An economic crash could be one of the longer ones, though a run on the banks or the failure of the credit and banking system could cause things to fall apart in short order.
Once the system collapses, for whatever reason, it is a little late to start preparations.
I would expect things to get bad in less than 72 hours, with looters, fires, crime, etc. in the wake of the stores being picked clean. That would also be my estimate of the hours of supply of illegal narcotics in a city. After that, they are going to start looking for other highs, and coming down.
Most people have a week or two of food on hand, if they can figure out how to prepare it without electricity.
After that is gone, expect people, or bands of people, to start getting desperate, and looking for food supplies from individuals.
Most contingencies will clog the major highways within 24 hours, creating gridlock. Secondary roads will quickly have roadblocks established, either to keep people out, or to take what they have. Almost everyone will realize that survival in the city without regular resupply is going to be impossible. Imagine Rita or Katrina. People are not going to leave food on shelves while their families are starving, whether the stores are open or they have money or not. Most people will imagine life in the country, or in the mountains, as easy food wanders by on the hoof, or is there on the trees for the taking, and well-stocked vacation cabins sit empty and waiting. I personally think trying to relocate after disaster strikes with a family is a pipe dream, though I guess it may beat holing up in a high-rise apartment with your family, and waiting for some crack-heads to smash down your door or burn the building down.
A well-prepared, or lucky rural area, will have a few months of supply on hand in some contingencies. A few communities may be able to winter over. If aid from overseas is possible, it will arrive on the coasts and at operating airports first. Those inland in remote areas could be there for a long time before help arrives.
Just to be safe, I would recommend a year's worth of emergency food and supplies, seeds, tools, weapons and ammo, power, fuel, a safe water supply, etc., and staying at your intended retreat. If you don't have it now, it is always a good time to start, maybe picking up a few more grocery items every week. If something happens, it may only be a brief disruption. Better partially prepared than not at all.
Or maybe if we hope and pray enough, nothing will happen and things will always be as they are now. Your call.
Just my .02, YMMV.
TR
Dozer523
10-29-2009, 20:49
Well - since everyone's heading for the rural areas and building fortresses for the inevitable culture wars - I think I'll probably head on into the vacated urban areas and live in the vacated mansions with all the Mexican servants who generally have better survival instincts and skills than most modern day Norte Americanos anyway. :rolleyes:
Richard's jaded $.02 :munchin
Just make sure you stay the hell off my lawn. I was thinking the same thing. I'll be at Bill Gates' place after I dynamite the floating bridge.:D
Just make sure you stay the hell off my lawn. I was thinking the same thing. I'll be at Bill Gates' place after I dynamite the floating bridge.:D
Better hope he planned for a power outage his whole house is ran by computer. Wonder if its apple OS or microsoft. If its vista your DOOMED!!!!
fredscout
10-29-2009, 21:02
How gradual? This is a question I ask myself, and I haven't come up with a good answer.
In San Antonio, some years ago, the news was full of discussions of a hurricane. Of course, San Antonio is sufficiently inland that we're not at any real risk. But the stores were cleaned out of generators, and even the grocery stores had some notably empty shelves. When do people turn nasty? A day? Three? (Those are rhetorical questions)
If the breakdown is over 30 days, then relocation seems easy. One could, perhaps, charter a bus. (BTW - pink is the sarcasm color.)
Even a week wouldn't be too bad. Especially with bicycles, one could go quite a distance.
But what do you think? How long is gradual?
I believe that the real killer for most folks in any scenario will be their inability to size up the situation and react immediately. My personal measure for the necessity of action has to do with gauging the ability of the infrastructure to support both communication and electrical power as it relates to the event in question.
Tornadoes, hurricanes, blizzards and the like don't strike me as utterly hopeless and worthy of trying to convince my family to drop their illusion of herd security and head into the night with me.
If, however, I wake up tomorrow and there's nothing on the air, no juice in the lights...I'm gonna do a quick recon up to the major thoroughfares, stage my gear and have a tough talk with sweety and the progeny. That is the key, I think. Being alert to the difference between immediate chaos that has the potential to subside and being able to quell my rationalizations if it does not and get moving.
I guess the defining moment will be when the immediate food is gone...is there any shred of reasonable evidence that the cavalry is coming? If not, gnashing of teeth won't help. I will not raid my exfil rations...if it comes to that, we're walking.
Here's the real bender to think about for me: The in-laws are two miles away and in their 70s. We are actively integrated with them in all facets of our lives. If crunch time comes, how will I get my team moving without them, because they cannot go with us.
How's that for a commentary on my high flying morality :rolleyes: re: my previous post on consumption of my fellow man? But I do think that one can make difficult choices that leave their core intact.
How gradual? This is a question I ask myself, and I haven't come up with a good answer.
In San Antonio, some years ago, the news was full of discussions of a hurricane. Of course, San Antonio is sufficiently inland that we're not at any real risk. But the stores were cleaned out of generators, and even the grocery stores had some notably empty shelves. When do people turn nasty? A day? Three? (Those are rhetorical questions)
If the breakdown is over 30 days, then relocation seems easy. One could, perhaps, charter a bus. (BTW - pink is the sarcasm color.)
Even a week wouldn't be too bad. Especially with bicycles, one could go quite a distance.
But what do you think? How long is gradual?
A good question I ponder myself. Maybe I am wrong, but it would seem that for most people gradual is the more dangerous means.....death by a thousand cuts so to speak, and while they are aware of the danger, they don't quite see the looming threat and tend to put things off....it is gradual with no end in sight. And for those that do prepare, the question becomes when to pull the evac trigger.
In addition, I would think that gradual gives the opportunity for Gov/State preparation to contained an area which may hinder or prevent any exit.
Whereas something immediate creates panic,and chaos, but those that are calm, prepared and with a plan can take advantage of the situation. In simple terms while hordes are mobbing the super market for the last scraps and heading to Home Depot to fight over generators you could immediately and cautiously be on your merry way to location X.
Just a thought.
So much gloom - personally, I see this as a golden opportunity to succeed and for SF to successfully conduct the greatest DID** operation ever...
Richard's jaded $.02 :munchin
** Domestic Internal Defense
So much gloom - personally, I see this as a golden opportunity to succeed and for SF to successfully conduct the greatest DID** operation ever...
Richard's jaded $.02 :munchin
** Domestic Internal Defense
Absolutely true. Some will make fortunes - and a few will found family dynasties. And those SF skills that no one talks about - things like leadership, the ability to get others to work together effectively, the ability to think creatively - could create a foundation for many good things.
But is it all really gloom? If we're talking about what to do to prepare for and survive a situation with a casualty rate of between 90% and 95%, it seems we're more wildly optimistic than gloomy. :cool:
Unfortunately, when that day starts my internal clock begins it's countdown to zero. We are fortunate to live in a neighborhood whereby everyone has discussed it and is preparing in their own way. We are also greatful to live right next to the Cuyahoga River. We can use it for navagational purposes or as a quick way to get out. But for me, I am staying, I have no other choice. Maybe one of you QP's can come over and keep me company.:D
But is it all really gloom? If we're talking about what to do to prepare for and survive a situation with a casualty rate of between 90% and 95%, it seems we're more wildly optimistic than gloomy.IMO, it depends upon how one defines 'survival' <<LINK (http://www.iupress.indiana.edu/catalog/product_info.php?products_id=41715)>>.
armymom1228
11-02-2009, 21:42
Interesting thought Brush Okie. You sound like my father. Many in his generation were convinced that surviving a mass nuclear exchange was hopeless. Strangely, the Russians were more hopeful and developed large, community shelters outside of metro-targets. Their thickheaded view is that there is always a way to survive no matter how difficult the situation, so long as one understands and prepares accordingly.
I think that you might find the studies done on Chernobyl and its aftermath a quite interesting and scary case study. Much better than Japan.
For the record, had the Russians used an American style containment, the reactor probably would have still blown. But it would have all been contained within the reactor building.
Here is a link to an excerpt from a book.
http://home.comcast.net/~glenncheney/Journey.htm
Skripka's thesis is that there are more victims of Chernobyl than officially known. Some 30,000 liquidators and evacuees have registered as victims, but Skripka believes there are 20,000 more who haven't bothered. But even those numbers are low, he says. Everyone in Kiev - 2.6 million people - is a victim because radiation is much higher than officially acknowledged. His data falls in line with that of Alec the chemist. Though Skripka cannot verify it, some scientists he knows went to the Soviet Union's nuclear testing ground and took radiation readings at ground zero. The readings were lower than at any point in Kiev.
By Skripka's estimate, in the days following the accident, everyone in Kiev received from three to five rem from internal radiation. That's equivalent to the annual dose allowed nuclear workers in the United States (and fifty times the allowable dose for nuclear workes in the Department of Energy). This radiation was the alpha and beta particles emitted from radionuclides, the radiation that is relatively harmless as long as it's outside the body. Beta particles will barely penetrate human skin, and alpha particles will bounce off a piece of paper. They aren't a big problem unless they get inside your corporeal fortress. But if you inhale or eat them, the body may accept them as nutrients. Strontium-90, for example, looks a lot like calcium - same number of electrons in its outer shell - so bones readily latch onto it. The strontium makes itself at home and begins radiating the local marrow.
Similarly, iodine-131 is quite like regular iodine, so it tends to accumulate in the thyroid. (The purpose of iodine pills as a safeguard against radiation is to fill the thyroid so the radioactive iodine just passes out of the body as an unneeded nutrient.) Cesium is versatile enough to find many homes in the human organism. Once lodged in the body, these radionuclides keep emitting radiation, attacking the thyroid, the marrow, the blood that happens to pass by. It might give you thyroid cancer, leukemia, or any of various blood diseases. An invisible speck of plutonium in your lung is enough to give you lung cancer.
Kiev was also bombarded by gamma waves, which are more dangerous but shorter lived. They zap right through the human body, doing some damage on the way but not lingering to continue the attack. Today, scientists cannot determine how many rem of gamma waves people suffered six years ago.
Skripka gained access to some KGB files and found that the Soviet government knew a lot more than it let on. Children under the age of 1 had an average of .5 rem in their thyroids - five times the current annual dose allowed to hit non-nuclear workes in the United States. Pregnant women and their unborn were known to have equal radiation levels in their blood. Breast milk was contaminated.
Radiation wasn't the only poison blown out of the Chernobyl reactor. The atomic chaos of the meltdown created virtually every possible element and isotope, not to mention bizarre molecules. Some of the isotopes lived for mere nanoseconds; some will be around for millennia. The lead that helicopters dropped into the flaming crater evaporated and blew across the countryside. It finds its way into people via grass that cows eat. It is impossible to say how much of this lead is from gasoline, how much from Chernobyl, but whatever the source, it's all over the place.
A special well dug in the Prohibited Zone brings water up from 30 meters. Lately it's been showing radiation levels of ten to the negative ten curies per liter. If it were a byproduct in a nuclear laboratory, you'd have to take special measures to dispose of it. Dropping it into a well would not be appropriate. The Dneiper River, which runs through the center of Kiev, once had similar levels of strontium, but it has dropped to 10 to the negative 12 curies - acceptable though still above the ideal of zero.
So it's no wonder blood donor data shows that 80 percent of donors have abnormal levels of such things as white and red blood cells and immune proteins. It explains why 30 percent of children can't receive a vaccination because they come down with the disease the vaccination was supposed to prevent.
Skripka has data on increases in health problems. Among official adult victims, the death rate has increased 400 percent since 1987. Death by cancer is up 300 percent. Breast cancer is up 26 percent. General disease, up 500 percent. Problems in thyroids and other glands, up 400 percent. Respiratory disease, excluding cancer and tuberculosis, up 2,000 percent. Pneumonia, up 220 percent in adults, 260 percent in children. Allergy problems, up 41 percent in adults, 80 percent in children. Incidence of brain cancer, up 350 percent from 1988 to 1991. Genetic aberration, 10-13 times higher in contaminated areas.
Any city can be 'bustling' 50 yrs later. It is the long term effects of exposure to radiation that you might want to research.
The Health Physics Journal has had, over the years, some most excellent articles on both Japan and Russia in the aftermath of radiation events.
The Reaper
11-02-2009, 22:08
I think that you might find the studies done on Chernobyl and its aftermath a quite interesting and scary case study. Much better than Japan.
For the record, had the Russians used an American style containment, the reactor probably would have still blown. But it would have all been contained within the reactor building.
Here is a link to an excerpt from a book.
http://home.comcast.net/~glenncheney/Journey.htm
Any city can be 'bustling' 50 yrs later. It is the long term effects of exposure to radiation that you might want to research.
The Health Physics Journal has had, over the years, some most excellent articles on both Japan and Russia in the aftermath of radiation events.
I would say that taking shelter, holing up, and surviving with a chance of getting cancer later beats the alternative of dying immediately, unless it is the price to buy the survival of your family.
TR
The Reaper
11-03-2009, 08:10
Ya got to love socilism. Always looking out for the citizens. :rolleyes:
The needs of the many, outweigh the needs of the few.
TR
Dozer523
11-03-2009, 11:22
I was told what happend and what the Russians did should be considered genocide. They disabled a bunch of safety measures to run a test. When things stsrted heating up they finally manually pulled the oh crap swith for shutting down. The problem with that type of reactor is that when they do that there is a momentary spike in the heat before it starts to cool down. That momentry spike was just enough to set it on fire. Here is the best part. They didn't tell the surrounding citizens for THREE DAYS. Thats right they were in the hot zone for three days then they suddenly evacuated them, forever. All the firefighters and helo pilots didn't know what they were getting into. They were told it was just a fire at first. all of the firefightrs and pilots died if I remember correctly. BTW they did not die in a burning ball of flame, not it was over days and weeks of radiation poisning.
Ya got to love socilism. Always looking out for the citizens. :rolleyes: Pretty terrible stuff but not genocide. Unless the Soviet government has as problem with firefighters and helo pilots. hmmmmmmm, Well . . . "Pile It"s I can sort of understand, -- "Where is that damn chopper. . . ?" But firefighters? Nah.
According to the International Criminal Courts:
Article 6 of the ICC Statute, This crime involves, "any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such:
(a) Killing members of the (a national, ethnical, racial or religious) group;
(b) Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group;
(c) Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part;
(d) Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group;
(e) Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group."
Dozer523
11-03-2009, 14:27
I think that you might find the studies done on Chernobyl and its aftermath a quite interesting and scary case study.
If so then check out this site about Chernobyl. A very interesting motorcycle ride through the area -- seems she'll ride anywhere. http://www.kiddofspeed.com/chapter1.html
Any city can be 'bustling' 50 yrs later. It is the long term effects of exposure to radiation that you might want to research.
The Health Physics Journal has had, over the years, some most excellent articles on both Japan and Russia in the aftermath of radiation events. Chernobyl probably won't be bustling any time soon.
OK, how about mass murder.
IMHO all of the "ism"s love mass murder.
Man, you kids just don't remember the old days.
Back when the "Evil Empire" was out to rule the world. The only thing that stood between "EE" and the rest of the world was the US of A with a little help from NATO.
NBC Training, Full MOPP?
Tactical Nukes to the left of you, tactical nukes to the right of you, through the valley of the Fulda Gap pours the Red Horde. Half a Click, half a click........
The big armies of the day planned to fight a war that way.
Don't forget your iodine pill.
Dozer523
11-03-2009, 17:52
Man, you kids just don't remember the old days.
Those were the days, my friend
we thought they'd never end
We'd sing and dance forever and a day.
We'd live the life we'd choose.
We'd fight and never lose.
For we were young and sure to have our way!
Rat racing M113A1 (later A2) all over the Minnegan Gap. The 8th Guards Army was going to feign at Fulda so everyone (but the 11th ACR and the 3rd ID (Marne)) was going to be in the wrong place.
Fight and die before the Main! Drive on! Joint the People Who Joined the Army! Be All you Can Be!Lean Forward in the Foxhole! Fight Out-numbered and Win! Do More With Less! Make Ivan Pay For It! MOPP 4-ever!
Being the person on the spot always provides more info than trying to guage what needs to be done from here, but one of my first acts would be to set up a system to screen those passing my property and utilize those with skills needed to make it through the next two years -- and beyond. I beleive there would be more chance for reasonable survival with additional personnel. Military, medical personnel , even farmers in a required number, would each have to be weighted as to what they can provide aganist what they would require. I'd keep as low a profile as possible, but know that at sometime I will have to defend my AO.
armymom1228
11-04-2009, 08:09
Funny you mention iodine. Armymom, you would enjoy the DOE/DOD/FDA studies that tested various supplements for radiation sickness/'prevention'. The exposure rate data is not for the faint of heart. Like you said Armymom, radiation kills in a mean kinda way. All the reports are available and were mandatory (not suggested:p) reading for big, dumb guys like me. I don't recall where you can find this info, but sounds like you have already read them.
I read those when I was about 12 or so. I spent a fair amount of my time having the run of the Nuke Eng dept at UF. It was how I learned to manipiulate grad students (guys) into doing my calculus homework. :D:D In retrospect it did not serve me well, but it was a fruitful learning ground. They were soooo easy to manipluate like shooting sheep in pen. :D
Utah Bob
11-04-2009, 08:21
I went to NBC school so long ago it was called CBR school. They said when I graduated that I was now immune to radiation.
Did they lie to me?:confused: :p
The Reaper
11-04-2009, 08:54
Being the person on the spot always provides more info than trying to guage what needs to be done from here, but one of my first acts would be to set up a system to screen those passing my property and utilize those with skills needed to make it through the next two years -- and beyond. I beleive there would be more chance for reasonable survival with additional personnel. Military, medical personnel , even farmers in a required number, would each have to be weighted as to what they can provide aganist what they would require. I'd keep as low a profile as possible, but know that at sometime I will have to defend my AO.
Soupy:
How about reviewing the board rules and introducing yourself in the proper place?
TR
Dozer523
11-04-2009, 10:02
Being the person on the spot always provides more info than trying to guage what needs to be done from here, but one of my first acts would be to set up a system to screen those passing my property and utilize those with skills needed to make it through the next two years -- and beyond. I beleive there would be more chance for reasonable survival with additional personnel. Military, medical personnel , even farmers in a required number, would each have to be weighted as to what they can provide aganist what they would require. I'd keep as low a profile as possible, but know that at sometime I will have to defend my AO. Delay me for one second so that you can screen my ass to see if I fit into your survival plan? You may find yourself hoping to make it through the next two years being utilized by me.
If others are passing through, best COA is let 'em.
The Reaper
11-04-2009, 16:41
Were you gents diagnosed with attention deficit disorder as children, or is this some sort of geriatric issue?
Focus, people.
TR
Dozer523
11-04-2009, 23:15
Check this out. From the new movie THE ROAD. On screens this month.
http://www.survivetheroadgame.com/
fredscout
11-06-2009, 09:09
Some interesting stuff on how the government is preparing for various disaster...may help you with your personal planning to know what they are thinking...
http://www.fema.gov
also, the National Preparedness Framework:
http://www.fema.gov/pdf/emergency/nrf/nrf-core.pdf
As pointed out by The Reaper:
90% of the nice Americans are about 72 hours from reverting to savages.
If say the economy goes to hell tomorrow, can the 72 hour window be used to explain the individuals likely mindset process in the same context as for example the 5 Step Grieving Process? If so what would the steps likely be.
The Reaper
12-10-2009, 12:03
Once things settle back down and get back to 'normal', what will our economy look like? Many items will perish, but some will gain a profit. We have developed/invented so many wonderful things, but I wonder which ones will truly gain a man/woman wealth.
Man has always been resourceful. I would like to hear thoughts on specific skills and goods that may be of profit. I do not see a global economy, so much of what we have will be 'organic' to our Continent and common throughout most communities (medicines, spices, crops, skills, etc.).
At the risk of me stealing another's future profiteering, anybody care to share some plans?:D
It would depend upon the nature of the collapse, or incident, or whatever you want to call it.
If fuel, electricity, transportation, and commo remain up and commonly available, the results and subsequent necessities (and the recovery) are vastly different than if those systems collapse.
A WMD incident that wipes out Wall Street and the NY Fed will affect most of us negatively, but nowhere nearly as badly as an EMP that wipes out virtually all electronics and puts us back into, at best, an 1850s lifestyle, albeit with the knowledge (if in print) of the current world. A plague or successful bio attack that took out 90% of the population would be another significant scenario.
If you refer to my planning thread, you will see primary needs addressed. Consider the food issue. If you are lucky enough to survive whatever catastrophe occurs, your dwelling remains intact, and you have a year's supply of food for your family, what do you do if help has not arrived at the end of the year when your food runs out? If you have seeds, do you have the right soil, additives, gardening tools, fencing, etc. to protect and cultivate them as they mature? Lets say you do, the fates are smiling, and you get a bumper crop. What do you do with a year's supply of vegetables that spoil in two weeks?
Basically, you need to analyze the threats you want to be prepared for, the likelihood of a rescue, and how long you need to be prepared to survive on your own before things return to some semblence of normalcy (if ever). Some things, like a large asteroid strike or gamma ray burst, are planet killers and are unsurvivable. Others, like a power outage, are minor inconveniences for most of us. In between lies a great sea of more serious, but not necessarily fatal events which you could, to some degree, prepare for. You have to decide which ones to prepare for, and to what extent. Very few of us can afford to prepare for most of the disasters and to subsequently live self-sufficiently and secure for two or three years, much less through our children's lives.
If we assume that some significant portions of the U.S. survive the disaster, help will probably be coming, depending on the areas affected/unaffected and the impact on commo and transportation nodes. Given recent catastrophes here in the U.S., you could expect assistance as soon as hours or as long as months after the incident. There are members of this board who were in the more seriously affected areas of Katrina. I am not sure that they would say that they are fully recovered, even now.
As far as how to prepare (ignoring the how to profit aspect), again it is heavily dependent upon the nature of the disaster, the degree of damage to the systems, and what is needed or in abundance where you live. If you are currently living in the desert, and the utility grid fails, then water would be a great thing to have. When you do not have piped in water (or air conditioning) any more, Vegas and Phoenix are going to be a lot less popular to live in. If you have a large body of fresh water nearby, and low population density, water is probably not so much of an issue. Some items like food (or meds) also have a limited shelf life, as described above. If you live in Kansas, and there is a crop planted that you can still harvest when the catastrophe occurs, food will not be nearly as critical as it will in most urban areas.
If you have arable land and the resources, you might want to consider farming, and then look at how you would plant and harvest it without gas or electricity. If you have medical training, then you might want to consider whether you could survive practicing it as a profession with limited supplies over an extended period of time. People have to eat and have medical care if they want to live. Auto repair might not be a good field if we have no refined fuel available, but horseshoeing might be, if there are horses in your area, and they survive. Harness repair, coopers, blacksmiths, and buggy whips might make a comeback. Or maybe not. Small engine and generator repair could be huge if we lose the electric grid, but fuel is still available. Look at what would be needed in your family/group/community after a catastrophe (versus what might be plentiful), and then see if you have needed skills to take care of those needs in exchange for other things you might need. Then prepare your necessities (water, food, shelter, fuel, security, electricity, commo, transportation, etc.) and keep an eye toward obtaining the knowledge, skills, tools, and parts to have a service of value after whatever disaster(s) you might want to be prepared for.
As far as speculating, I am afraid that with things going the way they are, in the near future, U.S. currency is going to lose its value. If that happens, it is going to be a long time before people accept paper printed by the government as valuable. It would be wise to have some other forms of currency, or barter. The ability to make electricity or fuel would be a good thing to have.
IT skills are great, with lots of potential employment opportunities and growth, as long as the grid is up. Maybe it would be wise to have a hobby to earn a living with, if you anticipate the grid going down for a long time.
A doctor or a medic is always going to be in demand as long as we are living, and want to stay that way. Once the drugs are gone, they can still operate as diagnosticians and surgeons. It is hard to imagine a scenario where their skills will not be in demand. Their biggest assets are in their heads. Other skills require things that may or may not be readily available again, if at all. I suspect that a gunsmith who also has the ability to fabricate and reload could be very popular. Look at what businesses thrived in 1950, or 1900, or 1850, or as far back as you expect the disaster to take society back to.
At the very least, it would be prudent to pick up a few additional non-perishable items every time you visit the grocery, an extra box of ammo at the gun store, a gas can and some fuel stabilizer at the Wally World, a spare saw chain and some hand tools at the Big Blue or Orange, take some useful classes at a tech school or community college, etc. If you are serious about this, I highly recommend that you do some detailed analysis and planning of what you are trying to prepare for, how to survive the event, and then the aftermath for as long as you deem necessary.
Well, I am not even sure that I am on the right track with your question, hope it helped (HTH).
TR
armymom1228
12-10-2009, 12:03
Once things settle back down and get back to 'normal', what will our economy look like? Many items will perish, but some will gain a profit. We have developed/invented so many wonderful things, but I wonder which ones will truly gain a man/woman wealth.
Man has always been resourceful. I would like to hear thoughts on specific skills and goods that may be of profit. I do not see a global economy, so much of what we have will be 'organic' to our Continent and common throughout most communities (medicines, spices, crops, skills, etc.).
At the risk of me stealing another's future profiteering, anybody care to share some plans?:D
manual skills for things that are not technologically oriented. Blacksmithing.
A good smith can make a good living just making candle holders.. no not the single candle kind but the nice chandeliers I see at the Ronny's..
If one were to own a draft horse and trailer,one could make money transporting people or goods. Look back to the late 18th, early 19th century and see what made money back then. I am sure that the steam engines, now in musuems will be removed and put back into use.
Down in the Glades there still exist hand cranked sewing machines. If one were to come across a treadle machine, one could make money as a tailor or repairing clothes. I sew, do you have any idea how many don't? My machines are all older, none computerized. If, when you pick it up, that old singer/white/house/pfaff in the thrift store is so heavy you can use it for a boat anchor. It probably belongs to an era of none computerized. They are worth the $20 or so that most places ask..and IF they need work, it is still worth the price to have them repaired, and the timing set.
Depending on the length of our descent into this whole scenario. Weaving of cloth will eventually be a viable money maker. I have mentioned them before, but the "Buckskinning" series of books is worth owning. One can aquire them via NMLRA dot org website. Possibly via Amazon as well. In them are 'patterns' for making clothing. Patterns such as we now have, did not exist. It was all done via rectangles. With gussets (triangles,diamonds) used to make arm/neckholes round. Jennifer Scarce, I think is the author, wrote a book on Middle Eastern Clothing. The patterns contained within are useful for many modern clothing items. Lots more than just clothing patterns in those books.
Owning a sailboat will allow one to do coastal trade and transport of people.
Owning sheep and knowing how to spin and weave cloth is extremely useful.
The tanning of animal hides. Very smelly process indeed.
I think somewhere there is an actual list of 18/19th century occupations.
Bookseller, printer. The list can be pretty extensive.
Rangertab are you familiar with the whole 'buckskinning' crowd? The do the reenactment of the American Mtn Man era. It is worth looking into as making your own blackpowder is not that hard. There will be a point when bullets will be precious and modern weapons will be useless and anything blackpowder worth its wt in gold.
During the middle ages those sellers of spice and salt were welcome everywhere. If you can locate a salt lick and mine it. Salt is one item that is precious to many many cultures. Knowing how to smoke and preserve meat and foods.
"Stephan's Florigelium" is a good source for some interesting skills that can be pre-technological age.
Opening a roadside tavern/inn.
Having a sugarcane patch, processing and selling of sugar and cane juice.
a Mill to grind the grain. Put it by a river for water power with a wheel.
That give you enough ideas? I would not call it profiteering so much as entreneurship.
AM
ps. What TR said, knowing how to can or dry foods is a good thing to know. Picking up canning supplies and either learning how to can. I go to packing houses and get the culled out vegetables to can. It gives me vegetables with no salt or sugar added. What did we do before modern grocers? Butchers, millers, dry goods and so on.
PedOncoDoc
12-10-2009, 12:17
All of the above suggestions from TR and AM are excellent. But do not forget that it would be nearly impossible for a single person/family to go it alone. Establish a network/community of friends who all bring different skills to the table. Talk with your like-minded neighbors and friends - make plans for the "what if" scenario - a rally-point, plans for security, food, clothing, basic medical care, etc. The American community has been in decay for the past 50+ years - it's time to start re-establishing it if you are going to plan for catastrophe - be careful to choose those you want to include in your community wisely.
armymom1228
12-10-2009, 17:23
All of the above suggestions from TR and AM are excellent. But do not forget that it would be nearly impossible for a single person/family to go it alone.
But that is what was done in times previous.
Establish a network/community of friends who all bring different skills to the table. Talk with your like-minded neighbors and friends - make plans for the "what if" scenario - a rally-point, plans for security, food, clothing, basic medical care, etc. The American community has been in decay for the past 50+ years - it's time to start re-establishing it if you are going to plan for catastrophe - be careful to choose those you want to include in your community wisely.
Ah, therein lays the rub. How does one establish that criteria, by race, religion, familial ties, political ideology, gender? That person who does not meet any of the criteria, lets say, that I just wrote.....might be the exact person you might want or desperately need to complete your little version of utopia. ;)
There are many instances of towns springing up where one person just decided that it might be a great wide spot in the road to open a tavern/inn. Then someone decided opening a livery might be great. Next guy opened a dry goods store and his freind a barbshop for the tavern/inn patrons. Slowly the town was created. Of course the drunks/lazy and all the riff raff showed up and were either run out of town, or stayed and made something of themselves.
Who makes those decisions of who is in or who is out? Does that person do it objectively or subjectively?
Most discount our elderly or those unable to preform manual labor in such a scenario. I am reminded of those Asian families who emmigrate. Mom and Dad work two jobs. Meanwhile gramma who cannot work outside the house for many reasons Has a job making silk flowers at home as well as being the family babysistter and passer on of wisdom to the young. Those to small to work, help gramma make those silk flowers. Defining who is, and who is not of value to a community is a difficult task at best.
AM
armymom1228
12-12-2009, 22:02
Interesting thoughts TR, armymom (aka bookworm), and PedOncoDoc.
I guess 'profiteering' would be relative. Wealth will not be measured with bank account balances, rather with high demand/essential items. Some items will directly relate to need and others will be 'luxuries/ease of living.
Wealth can also be considered how well you live. Consider the Middle Ages and how some lived. Cotton then was a luxury item. Silk was cultivated in Turkey and less expensive than cotton. People did not have a closet full of clothes.. they had maybe one or two dresses (women). Those were passed down and remade.
It was not until the mid 19th century that we had mass produced cloth.
Wealth can be something as simple as a roof over one's head and a full belly.
Local general stores and farmers markets will rise again.
The never truly left. We have a weekly 'farmers market' here in st pete on sat. mornings that is great. In the more rural areas you can still find a small local general store.
Overall, non-electrical/non-combustible mechanisms and goods/services related to these would be a good investment. Sewing machines/machineers and cotton farmer relations comes to mind. Lots of opportunities for industrial investments out there, especially at the antique stores.
http://www.lehmans.com/
These guys cater to the Amish/Mennonites.
I bought, a few yrs back, a gas driven freezer for out compound out in the woods.
We have no electricity or anything that would suggest we are there from main roads. Power wires indicate human habitation to those whom we don't want there.
Gotta look back to the mid to late 1800's. They had gas lights.
You can get methane from a properly working septic tank for lighting and cooking.
A few I am planning on are distilling equipment for alcohol and sugarcane byproducts; 100s of lbs of salt (it is one of the cheapest/longest lived items on Wal Mart's shelf); glassware; cast iron; smoke house; medicines (opiates, penicillin, aspirin, silver); candles/wax production (thanks armymom).
There are plenty of homemade still plans out there..
It is worth it to get a few good botancial guides on how to find and identify medicinal plants. There will be a time when the penicillin runs out, what do you do then? "one second after" had some real interesting scenarios regarding medical issues.
P.S. Anyone trading good cacao seeds/beans from a good growing source in the tropics will be paid handsomely by my chocolate-loving wife. Maybe even a fine cigar from Cuba for me, should it make its way to Texas with or without bugs.
Ah,that is where having a sailboat comes in handy. Coastal trader can do right nicely.
One thing some forget is that cruisers have, or used to, have to go places were there were no foods. It is a long 4 weeks Panama to the Marquesas. Foods have to be stored. Eggs keep a long time out of the refrigerator. You can coat them with vaseline. Quite a few 'voyaging' books out there that talk about food and how to keep it long.
http://www.stilltasty.com/ <---will give you some shelf life info.
AM
Utah Bob
12-12-2009, 22:50
Who makes those decisions of who is in or who is out? Does that person do it objectively or subjectively?
Around here that would be me. I do it subjectively under rule 303. ;) :D
armymom1228
12-12-2009, 22:53
Around here that would be me. I do it subjectively under rule 303. ;) :D
NO you are clearly wrong...it says right here in rule #14, paragraph 4, subsection 32 on line 19.. "He who pays the bills makes the rules. ":D
Then one paragraph 52 of rule #14, in subsection 63.. it clearly, positively states. "the rules shall be applied either objectively or subjectively according to whim and amount of beer the rule maker is bribed with..no bribe and all decisions shall be at whim of aforementioned rule maker."
The Reaper
12-12-2009, 22:54
True, but it can always be cultivated. Strangely, I have found no/very little instructions on processing it. Growing it is quite simple but the details from harvest to end product are not publicly available. Seems to be protected intellectual property, after all these years. Crazy aye?
Most antibiotics as currently sold are not available without a prescription, and expire in less than 24 months.
You can obtain the same abx as pet or vet meds without a script and for much less, if you have no other way to get them. Knowing which one to use, how much, and for how long is the real question.
Armymom is right, "One Second After" will give you a lot to think about.
I would not count on being able to manufacture penicillin at home, though if you could, that might be a great barter item.
TR
armymom1228
12-13-2009, 00:25
TR, I am way behind on the books I already have. At the rate I am going, moths will get to them before I do. I guess one more wouldn't hurt much besides making the others jealous, especially if i move it to the front of the reading line. My sister loves buying books for me and the gift exchange is almost here.
IIRC, this book has been recommended to me before and I have yet to read any books on the subject. Will do.
TR is quite right about Vet meds. You can purchase them online as well.
I would recommend keflex and levaquin rather than penicillin.
TR recommended the book to me. It bothered me a whole bunch for a few days after I read it. For any number of reasons.
When the guys here recommend a book to me. I know I will both enjoy and learn from it. The stack though has grown large.;)
Here is a discussion on growing your own penecillin.
http://www.scienceforums.net/forum/showthread.php?t=2919
AM
armymom1228
12-13-2009, 02:43
Thanks for the link mom. Wonderful information on that forum. Sounds like I need to plant me some garlic.:lifter
Garlic is the other food group. ;)
(Along with beer.)
AM
JoelBlack
12-14-2009, 01:54
I read the original and reply post and here is something that crossed my mind. It would be difficult to maintain and overlook your assets if your were NG or AD. If that situation was ever at hand, wouldn't chances be that NG units nation wide would be activated? Same be it for AD. God and Country or God and Family? What would you choose?
Dozer523
12-14-2009, 07:15
I read the original and reply post and here is something that crossed my mind. It would be difficult to maintain and overlook your assets if your were NG or AD. If that situation was ever at hand, wouldn't chances be that NG units nation wide would be activated? Same be it for AD. God and Country or God and Family? What would you choose? Oh boy. Sucks to be me. Decisions decisions . . . Total chaos. Limited confidence the local and/or national authority will establish control. Bad guys running wild in the streets. Good (sic) guys doing the same. I have the combination to the armory vault. Afchic is on her way to WY in a panel truck by way of my location. Admission to the WY redoubt is contingent on what and how much stuff on the other side of the vault door I'm willing to pack into the truck. . .
"MRFL, Honey, I said SAWs, that's a 240B. . . Little Dude, Don't drop another 9mm; take two trips . . . Loose or leave most in the racks? Maybe we should take the footlocker of empty magazines . . . Yes, definitely a couple of gallons of LSA . . .
But. . . then again, it IS Total chaos I guess it all will come down to what happens in the Armory parking lot. If authority is established at the unit level I'll follow the senior man. That's why the young Captain makes the big bucks.
But...how long do I wait for him? hmmmmmmmmmm...
The Reaper
12-14-2009, 08:28
I read the original and reply post and here is something that crossed my mind. It would be difficult to maintain and overlook your assets if your were NG or AD. If that situation was ever at hand, wouldn't chances be that NG units nation wide would be activated? Same be it for AD. God and Country or God and Family? What would you choose?
If you are LEO, or a fireman, or a Guardsman, or a hospital worker, how long are you willing to leave your family alone to go to your job?
Look at Katrina. How many cops just walked off and then stayed home? How many came in and then couldn't get back home to their families?
If the disaster is localized sufficiently that forces from unaffected areas can be mobilized, then the plan might work. If it is nationwide, I do not see it working on anything more than a community or mutual aid force.
Just my .02, YMMV.
TR
God and Country or God and Family? What would you choose?
Now that's a good question to ponder - and - MOO - can only be answered individually if the time ever comes.
I certainly hope nobody is ever placed in that position by our government.
Richard's $.02 :munchin
JoelBlack
12-14-2009, 18:12
If the disaster is localized sufficiently that forces from unaffected areas can be mobilized, then the plan might work. If it is nationwide, I do not see it working on anything more than a community or mutual aid force.
Good $.02!
If you are LEO, or a fireman, or a Guardsman, or a hospital worker, how long are you willing to leave your family alone to go to your job?................
For the individuals TR mentioned - How well do you know your neighbors? If the city is crumbling over days and you're working overtime what is your neighborhood going to look like?
I look up and down my street and, other than the active duty folks, most are folks who can stay home with no questions asked - and many have NRA stickers on the cars.
I chose to buy 40 acres bordering 40,000 acres of wilderness area, so if someone finds me, they may have skills I can use. So if anyone wants to provide security, I can keep a food supply going. I have minimal weapons/ammo for a long haul.
As for what is missing in the string, I have not seen anyone mention canning supplies (large pressure cooker, glass jars, more lids than jars and wax.) My fresh fruits and vegetable are great when they harvest, but at least for me, that is not 12 months a year. I use German raised gardens and get quite a large crop for a small piece of tilled land and have my own vegetables all winter from it.
Also, canning is a bit of an art/skill, so if you don't know how, good idea to learn and to practice before you need to depend on it. Many new farmers lose their first batches to mold.
Let us consider a scenario - a survival scenario.
Starting point:
Crisis:
Katrina was a short term example of this. One Second After, a novel about an EMP attack, considers a 1 year scenario. Some peak oil theorists suggest that such breakdown might result due to declines in oil availability. But whatever the reason, the web of trade and exchange has been disrupted.
TR[/COLOR]
Your neighbors in the small community are not as wise as you and have only limited supplies. Fortunately, you've been as gray as a person can be, so they don't know about what you have. You are within 150 miles of a number of cities of 100,000 population, and 1 city that has 250,000 people. They will have reverted, and they will be hungry. Your community (and you) are close to a major highway. You should expect large numbers of people to come through your area - at first by car, and later on foot. Many of them will be armed.
What do you do, and when?
At what point is it okay to go out to the interstate with a chain saw and drop trees in the road to slow the flow of refugees? I already know were to do it (on a steep cliff overlooking the road) and the time of day (night time is the right time) but when? The third day? If I drop the trees and its a minor catastrophe then I'm making things worse without any benefit...
armymom1228
12-27-2009, 11:22
At what point is it okay to go out to the interstate with a chain saw and drop trees in the road to slow the flow of refugees? I already know were to do it (on a steep cliff overlooking the road) and the time of day (night time is the right time) but when? The third day? If I drop the trees and its a minor catastrophe then I'm making things worse without any benefit...
Are you assuming they will be in vehicles? If that is the case, at which point do they start to walk after running out of gas. If it is an EMP, the vehicle is useless right off the bat. Therefore climing over trees is simple. It won't stop a flow anymore than a river will.
Peregrino
12-27-2009, 11:26
At what point is it okay to go out to the interstate with a chain saw and drop trees in the road to slow the flow of refugees? I already know were to do it (on a steep cliff overlooking the road) and the time of day (night time is the right time) but when? The third day? If I drop the trees and its a minor catastrophe then I'm making things worse without any benefit...
Might want to try reading "One Second After". What happens to water when you dam the stream? Unless you have a plan and the resources for dealing with a "quantity" of refugees, slowing their evacuation will just cause you more problems. NTM - I can tell you what I and most of my peers would do if somebody interupted our evac plan. Once they recovered from the shock, your heirs would appreciate having fewer mouths consuming scarce resources.
Are you assuming they will be in vehicles? If that is the case, at which point do they start to walk after running out of gas. If it is an EMP, the vehicle is useless right off the bat. Therefore climbing over trees is simple. It won't stop a flow anymore than a river will.
I'm assuming that they will be in vehicles (at first) and that the local community will throw up roadblocks once they get organized e.g. Gretna Louisiana.
Running out at night and dropping trees onto a choke point will simply by time for (lawful) authorities to do the same thing.
As far as an EMP attack goes, the attack may not be as powerful as the one depicted in "One Second After" but still capable of causing a major system disruption and refugee floods.
Might want to try reading "One Second After". What happens to water when you dam the stream? Unless you have a plan and the resources for dealing with a "quantity" of refugees, slowing their evacuation will just cause you more problems. NTM - I can tell you what I and most of my peers would do if somebody interupted our evac plan. Once they recovered from the shock, your heirs would appreciate having fewer mouths consuming scarce resources.
I've read "One Second After" While I think my community can probably get their act together, it may take them a few days to get roadblocks up, organize a plan to handle refuges etc.
As far as upsetting other peoples evac plans goes; I'm not worried about getting caught (or shot) since I know the local terrain and in one or two places it favors this type of move. The major route cuts through a ridgeline, leaving the road between steep rock embankments on each side. If I get above the road on the trail that parallels the road I can cut the trees with a chain saw, since you cant see the base of the trees from the road, Ill be safe.
I am worried about the morality of slowing down the flood of refugees and about knowing when to drop the trees. If its a biological attack, then I should drop them right away, if its a dirty bomb panic then I shouldn't drop them at all.
I am worried about the morality of slowing down the flood of refugees
It strikes me as relatively psychopathic to planing on disrupting and possibly injuring and killing 1000s of people.
.... As far as upsetting other peoples evac plans goes I'm not worried about getting caught (or shot) since I know the local terrain and in one or two places it favors this type of move..........l.
peshguy - there are a couple of thoughts on your question. The way you have posted gives the idea that you want to keep people "out" of an area.
How you do that will take organization, much more depending on the size of the area. Is everone in your "area" in agreement with your plans - what keeps people out also keeps them in? Things run out in your area and the people will want to go looking for supplies - and they'll look around them first.
Basic military planning requires obstacles to be under observation - do you have enough people to watch the obstacles and maintain order in your area? 24 hours a day?
But if you are in a small out of the way area blocking a road will only say "Something is up here."
Why not make your 'area' appear as unappealing as the rest and have multiple caches of resources well hidden and spread out. That way you 'have nothing for them to take'. By outwardly appearing to be in the same situation as the 'refugees' you aren't giving them an impetus to stay or take anything from you. Just some thoughts from an uninitiated guest.
.... That way you 'have nothing for them to take'....
You always have something someone wants. Your life and the life of the others around you are the most important things. You let strangers get close enough to check you out and they are too close.
A face to face could turn into a quick draw contest- winner gets to look around at their leisure.
peshguy - there are a couple of thoughts on your question. The way you have posted gives the idea that you want to keep people "out" of an area.
How you do that will take organization, much more depending on the size of the area. Is everone in your "area" in agreement with your plans - what keeps people out also keeps them in? Things run out in your area and the people will want to go looking for supplies - and they'll look around them first.
Basic military planning requires obstacles to be under observation - do you have enough people to watch the obstacles and maintain order in your area? 24 hours a day?
But if you are in a small out of the way area blocking a road will only say "Something is up here."
More like delay access to the area rather then deny access to the area.
As far as having an agreement on doing this or forces to keep a tree barrier in place I have neither. But if the road is blocked near a major intersection I would imagine that people would back up and go around bypassing the area I live in.
When I read "One Second After" I was struck with the similarities between were I am living and the description of the town in the novel.
You always have something someone wants. Your life and the life of the others around you are the most important things. You let strangers get close enough to check you out and they are too close.
A face to face could turn into a quick draw contest- winner gets to look around at their leisure.
Yup, that's pretty much the way I see it also. I'm all for being a good Samaritan, if it doesn't make my wife is a widow and my kids orphans. Married life has really changed the way I think about these things.
Also, canning is a bit of an art/skill, so if you don't know how, good idea to learn and to practice before you need to depend on it. Many new farmers lose their first batches to mold.
I have sweet memories (no pun intented) of canning peaches with my folks. I think we'll do it again this summer. It's been 10 years or more.
WD
armymom1228
01-24-2010, 22:19
I will post this here and be prepared.
Was watching a news channel that shall remained unamed and there was this lady who was talking about an interesting product is used to help malnourished children. A peanut based paste, that is easily squeezed out.
Here is the wiki on Plumpy'nut (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plumpy'nut)
the website for the company that makes it, Nurtiset (http://www.nutriset.fr/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&lang=en&id=30)
I could see using this for other purposes, like survival rations. It contains pretty much all you need.
An alternate product is, Unimix (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unimix)
Unimix, however, has to be cooked. In a survival scenario, plumpy'nut would work better. No fire to draw attention and all that.
Cowboy1957
04-30-2010, 20:10
A book from 1977 titled "Lucifer's Hammer" by Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle is a rather graphic fictional account of the consequences of a meteor impact on our planet. There is no other account of natural disaster that I know of that comes close to what we have experienced. It is a source of "what WOULD I do?" I do not have ANY of the skills or knowledge that the QP members of this website possess. I do know that there is a chance that a meteor could strike this planet with greater probability than myself winning a mega-millions lottery. My closest experience to that scenario is enduring the loss of possessions caused by Hurricane Katrina. We have had some cosmic near misses with more to come. Any thoughts that come to mind?
Monsoon65
05-01-2010, 15:33
I've been meaning to read "One Second After", but as TR said, it's depressing and I know I'll be in a funk for days after. Still.....
My wife and I have been getting our ducks in a row since I started reading the, "Be Prepared" thread. This winter in PA, we got hit with two snow storms pretty much back to back.
We never lost power, but had a generator if we did. Our pantry had a ton of food. Even if we did lose power, we were ready for that with winter gear to wear, and the food we have can be eaten without being cooked. As someone here said once, food is a necessity, hot food a luxury.
My problems are:
1. I live in a nice development in the middle of Amish Country. I know we'll have a buttload of footmobiles pouring thru this area like shit thru a goose. Stay and try to be the "grey man" or move? And to where?
2. Deadbeat relatives. My wife has two sisters in our AO. One is single, the other married with three kids. Neither has done anything. (In fact, when "the Oink" (H1N1) was the threat, HH6 said her sister (with the family) said, "Oh, I don't have any worries, we'll just come over to your house since you have your 'survival bunker'!").
3. Wife is now 4+ months pregnant. Doing anything with a newborn will be interesting, to say the least.
Defender968
05-02-2010, 10:45
I've been meaning to read "One Second After", but as TR said, it's depressing and I know I'll be in a funk for days after. Still.....
It's got some hard parts, but it's not that bad in terms of being depressing.
Nightfall
06-22-2010, 21:38
I try to stay hidden, not stick out in my life. So most of my survival strats are based on that and the ability to move out quickly. Myself, family, and a few close friends wouldn't be enough even well armed to fend of the mob in this town...
Guerilla farming is effective on said land. Lots of fruits like plums, apples, pears, things of that nature. Vitamin C and tend to grow and produce whether you want them to or not. Other things that don't necessarily need cultivating like viney plants, cucumbers and watermellons don't produce year round but produce with little help regardless and don't appear to be much more than weeds. So long as it doesn't look cultivated, it will most likely be overlooked or passed over by the untrained eye. Even if it is noticed, it may be avoided as most grown in this manner doesn't look like the store bought so said scavengers are likely to avoid as they won't know what they are. In addition to that it will attract small game. I've got a tiny bit of land to be planted as such way in the sticks east of me in between 4 stocked private lakes less than a mile away.
I've also read of people turning their homes into pseudo-sod homes, essentially burying their houses and putting in grass along the outside, looking something like a hill of sorts (a hobbit house?). Keeps the house cool in the summer and warm in the winter and depending on what you have buried it in (tires, scrap metal, drit, concrete) also provides a storm shelter/almost bomb shelter-esque habitat. Plant some kudzu around the perimeter and within a matter of days or weeks(depending on the weather) it will be completely hidden. Hopefully it won't choke out the previously mentioned guerilla farm. 32 acres right? Will also allow for hidden movement - I used to make tunnels through the kudzu as a kid to hide out from the older kids, never saw me even after they took a BB to the ass. Sounds wierd, but the theory seems sound. But then again could be like the lion trap in The Ghost and the Darkness.
Rechargeable AA's (as mentioned by TR) and you can make a wind-charger fairly easy out of one of those little hand held fans by reversing a couple of wires. Also could be turned into a crank charger, same principle. Definately standardise what batteries you are using.
Teach everyone to build a fire without matches. Sounds silly but I didn't see it mentioned, sorry if I overlooked it. This one is an imperitive in my book. If you lose everything from said farm, that skill and a good knife/machette and a little knowledge will take you far. Sorry getting off on a tangent, starting to revert to my teenage years living under the bridge :) Still keep my *jumpbag* and enough gear to at least get my wife and daughter to our land (even if by foot) and keep us going until I get the shelter up - I live right in the center of town, I've got escape routes that don't require roads water purifier and tablets, so on. Working on the years worth of non-perishable food, but either way, we'll have to bail for our land and keep mobile until we get there. Would love to have 32 out in the sticks with a little house to keep my daughter away from the mutants and junkies. Teach her to be a little Nim :D
A 6:45 video that may illuminate the problem
LINK (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=afZc1K6VMRk&feature=player_embedded)
A 6:45 video that may illuminate the problem
LINK (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=afZc1K6VMRk&feature=player_embedded)
Along that same sobering line....
http://usarmyguyretired.com/wordpress/
Is America Destined to Starve? by USARMYGUYRETIRED
June 21st, 2010 / Author: usarmyguyretired
Americans are no longer prepared to take care of their basic needs without the involvement of the federal government. The majority of Americans have relinquished the responsibility of their future survival to bureaucrats. How and when did we, as an intelligent and formerly self-reliant populace, decide to become wards of the state?
Since September 11, 2001 this country has faced numerous disasters both man-made and natural. It is evident after these disasters the majority of the population is unable to fend for themselves without government assistance. In only a matter of days, people run out of food and water, no longer able to take care of their families. They then expect some level of government to open up centers which will provide the necessary sustenance to support their families during these emergencies. Basic needs cannot be met without outside assistance. In less than 60 years Americans have lost the knowledge and will to be self-sufficient. How did this happen?
The federal government, in conjunction with large food suppliers, has seduced the citizens into servitude. The greater part of the population no longer maintains more than seven days of food supply in their homes (paycheck to paycheck). Some may argue this is untrue but it is imperative to be able convert raw foodstuffs into an edible product. If you have basic ingredients but no water, heat source, or electricity those raw foodstuffs might as well be located on another planet. American citizens have succumbed to the lie that everything will be available to them at all times in all circumstances. Americans now spend their money on frivolous goods and services which will not protect them against a possible disaster. If one had the ability to inspect any citizen’s food supply they would be minimal and nutritionally harmful. Food products purchased today are processed to the point of having the actual nutrients degraded in the attempt at extending shelf life. Even Americans themselves seem to have a shelf life after death. A lifetime ingesting foods packed with preservatives and the residuals have significantly altered the very essence of what makes our bodies tick. Americans have fallen into the trap of a never-ending supply of food stuffs from the local grocery store. The just in time inventory system we mimicked from the Japanese has certainly increased efficiency but it has greatly increased risks in food supply if interruptions occur. No one ever questions what happens if that supply suddenly stops or their income ceases to exist.
The example before us today is the oil spill catastrophe in the Gulf of Mexico. This affects a wide swath of wage earners in the gulf region with immense and unpredictable second and third order effects for the rest of the country. The impacted individuals no longer have the capacity to earn a living and limited job prospects, at least in this country. Food lines are now the order of the day in the region. The people now find themselves at the abject mercy of an indifferent, disengaged government bureaucracy only intent on expanding their agenda and the population’s dependency. Listen to the rhetoric from the federal government. Their major concern is not the people or the cleanup, it is how they will extort large sums of money from BP, how they will push forward their Cap and Trade fiasco and how they can take over yet another sector of the economy. The old-school media will cover any usurpation for the current administration in the face of this catastrophe. There will be limited blame placed on some minor bureaucrats with the majority of the fault falling to BP. The assignation of blame is only relevant because the federal government will use this as an opportunity to seize more power and control over business and the lives of the citizens. The economic illiteracy on the part of the government media complex is astounding. If BP is fined, that will have no impact on fuel prices down the line?
Hurricane Katrina and Rita were only small windows into what the country might face in the future. Those natural disasters were limited in scope and therefore did not reach the full consciousness of the American people. Yes, we were quick to blame the political powers for failing to act quickly in response to those disasters, especially if we were diametrically opposed to their agendas. Those disasters pale in scale to what the Gulf Coast now faces in conjunction with a grossly incompetent federal government and complicit media. The lethal combination of incompetence and the ability to have an unlimited scope in meddling is a recipe to make the Greater Depression worse than it is already.
Controlling the food supply has been the plan of the federal government for an extremely long time. The creation of the FDA was fundamental to the execution of this plan. Working in conjunction with large agribusiness and complicit media they now control the destiny of the majority of the population of the United States. They are attempting to eliminate all small farming operations through overbearing regulations and a wink and a nod in the courtroom to patent regulations for the agribusiness lobby. Part of the agenda is to force all small operations to microchip every animal and provide tracking information to the federal government. The large agribusiness operators will not be subject to the same regulations as small farmers. They will be exempt from providing the same information because of the political power they wield through the purchase of politicians.
It is a historical fact that whoever controls the food controls the people. History is replete with examples of what happens when a corrupt and ruthless government controls the food supply. In the 1930’s, Russia starved 10 million Ukrainians to death by stealing all the food produced in their country because they would not support Stalin’s farm collectivization program. Hitler used starvation in Poland for the mass murder of the Jews in the Warsaw ghetto. America is now poised for the same fate since they are unable to feed their families in the face of a disaster or corrupt government.
There are many reasons the food supply might cease functioning in United States. Natural or man-made disasters are the preeminent possibilities which might precipitate a food stoppage. We do not want to contemplate the stoppage may be due the interference of the federal government. The question that must be asked is how we survive as a people in the event of a long-term interruption of the food supply? The majority of the population no longer has any understanding of raising their own food supply. No longer are we capable of going to our seed supply and planting a survival garden. If a family does have seed, it is imperative to ask a question. Is the seed the heirloom variety or the genetically altered large agribusiness strain? If it is the genetically altered variety then it is part of the trap and that family will starve. Genetically altered seeds render them viable for one season with no ability to harvest seed for future planting. The unprepared with no stockpile of heirloom seeds will be at the mercy of the government or whoever holds the power.
The stoppage of the food supply is only an example of what might transpire in the event of a disaster. We, as a people, are an unprepared population. There are many books written concerning what this country might face in a disaster which also address the impact of a massive economic or social collapse of the government. I urge everyone to read these tomes and educate themselves as to what might transpire and to better prepare for the unspeakable but inevitable future. It is incumbent upon each family to prepare themselves for the coming crisis our country will eventually have to endure. It is naďve at best and foolish at worst to believe our country is too big to fail. The preparation of an informed populace will define how we survive as a people in the event of a major disaster or economic collapse.
Are you ready, or will your family starve
Last hard class
07-02-2010, 01:47
If you want a educational, but depressing read about a post-EMP survival scenario, get "One Second After", which nmap alluded to earlier.
The worst part is that it is completely plausible.
TR
I just watched the Nat Geo special on the EMP. It seems to me more than plausible. Downright scary in fact.
I need to look into a regenerating power source for the home asap.
GratefulCitizen
11-24-2013, 14:27
Was thinking about an issue along the lines of vehicle reliability (posts 85, 91).
Cooling systems.
Low pressure cooling systems are much more robust than high pressure systems.
A low pressure system can keep running just fine with a leak, if it's high on the radiator.
Small cracks might not leak at all, and repairs need not be as sturdy.
If you have a slow leak which can't be plugged, a low pressure system will leak much more slowly, allowing for less frequent coolant refilling.
Low pressure systems can more easily accept non-standard (jury-rigged) replacements.
Engines with open-chambered heads (smog-compliant) need more cooling capacity than similar engines with closed-chambered heads.
The difference can be significant on some large engines.
Thermostats.
Ease of thermostat replacement/ availability of different temperature thermostats should be considered.
Insufficient or excessive cooling capacity (due to climate/damage/repairs/driving conditions/etc.) can be mitigated with thermostat selection.
Selection can be counter-intuitive.
If the engine is running too hot, or the environment is hot (insufficient cooling capacity), a higher temperature thermostat should be used.
If there is a risk of the coolant freezing, a cooler thermostat should be used (in extreme cold, the thermostat could be pulled, but this can lead to other problems).
If the engine is failing to reach operating temperature, the thermostat is probably not working correctly.
Engines will reach operating temperature more quickly and burn less oil under load (light load, don't overwork a cold engine).
That's all I can think of right now.
Was thinking about an issue along the lines of vehicle reliability (posts 85, 91).
Cooling systems.
Low pressure cooling systems are much more robust than high pressure systems.
A low pressure system can keep running just fine with a leak, if it's high on the radiator.
Small cracks might not leak at all, and repairs need not be as sturdy.
If you have a slow leak which can't be plugged, a low pressure system will leak much more slowly, allowing for less frequent coolant refilling.
Low pressure systems can more easily accept non-standard (jury-rigged) replacements.
Engines with open-chambered heads (smog-compliant) need more cooling capacity than similar engines with closed-chambered heads.
The difference can be significant on some large engines.
Thermostats.
Ease of thermostat replacement/ availability of different temperature thermostats should be considered.
Insufficient or excessive cooling capacity (due to climate/damage/repairs/driving conditions/etc.) can be mitigated with thermostat selection.
Selection can be counter-intuitive.
If the engine is running too hot, or the environment is hot (insufficient cooling capacity), a higher temperature thermostat should be used.
If there is a risk of the coolant freezing, a cooler thermostat should be used (in extreme cold, the thermostat could be pulled, but this can lead to other problems).
If the engine is failing to reach operating temperature, the thermostat is probably not working correctly.
Engines will reach operating temperature more quickly and burn less oil under load (light load, don't overwork a cold engine).
That's all I can think of right now.
Almost any truck or SUV before the advent of the catalytic converter is a great survival vehicle IMHO. I miss tuning up the old engines and being able to work in the engine compartment (large enough to fit 4 illegals) without many problems. You ask almost anybody under the age of 30 now days what a "cap & rotor" are and they look at you really weird.
I will reinforce the opinions of nmap & TR on the book: "One Second After". IMHO...a nuclear war would not start without an EMP strike.
Before I usually add something to my kits, I try and see if I am able to use said item with one hand and if so will it be both durable and reliable because of injury(es), or arthritis. Not to mention ease of use with less moving parts if at all possible. If not, then I generally see if I can secure the parts together to prevent loss by using any of the parts of 550 parachute cord, Gorilla tape, and/or strong electric tie downs. Too much trouble, and I just pass it by and through it in a junk drawer. Just my $.02 worth.
GratefulCitizen
11-24-2013, 15:47
Almost any truck or SUV before the advent of the catalytic converter is a great survival vehicle IMHO. I miss tuning up the old engines and being able to work in the engine compartment (large enough to fit 4 illegals) without many problems. You ask almost anybody under the age of 30 now days what a "cap & rotor" are and they look at you really weird.
Not as familiar with other brands, but many of the GM trucks/SUVs made in the 80s and 90s can accept retro technology.
There's a base on which to build.
Even the 5700 Vortec is still compatible with most gen I small block parts, and the 7400 Vortec (gen VI) is compatible with most mark IV big block parts.
There are minor issues like needing melonized distributor gears, one-piece vs two-piece rear seals, fuel pumps, etc.
The early 90s gen II small blocks and gen V big blocks have some orphan issues.
Options on vehicle modifications are greatly affected by local registration and emissions laws.
Don't plan on reselling any severely modified vehicle which is subject to federal emissions laws.
Northern Arizona is pretty lax with vehicle standards.
If you have a horn, mirror, brake lights, and a redundant braking system, they'll give you a license plate.