View Full Version : Ahmadinejad Declared Winner of Iran Election
Defender968
06-13-2009, 12:09
Well I wish I could say I'm surprised :rolleyes:, and even more surprising is the challenger is shouting fraud, but never fear he’ll be killed shortly. I mean really come on, no politician would ever steal an election, especially not in a stand up country like Iran, led by a prince like Mahmoud :rolleyes: And so it goes.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/13/AR2009061300627_pf.html
Ahmadinejad Declared Winner of Iran Election
Clashes Break Out Among Voters as Challenger Mousavi Disputes Results
By Thomas Erdbrink
Washington Post Foreign Service
Saturday, June 13, 2009 12:34 PM
TEHRAN, June 13 -- Riot police clashed with supporters of presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi in the center of the city Saturday evening after the government declared that he had been defeated in a landslide by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Police used tear gas and batons to battle angry crowds, buses were set on fire and explosions and gunshots were heard in the distance.
In some areas, protesters pushed back the riot police. Women wrapped their headscarves around their faces to protect themselves from the tear gas. One man reportedly died after he was beaten by police.
On one street, riot police in full gear zoomed around on red motorcycles while others stood between three burned-out city buses. Hundreds of protesters hurled stones at them. Thick black smoke filled the air.
"We want freedom," the protesters shouted. Many of them had covered their faces with green cloth, the color of Mousavi.
Hundreds of people ran through the alleys surrounding the normally bustling street as police slowly advanced, hurling back stones that demonstrators had thrown at them. "Fight them!" a man shouted. "Death to the dictatorship!" others yelled at they ran toward the police.
In another location, demonstrators threw several policemen to the ground, and bystanders then beat and kicked them.
Mousavi, a former prime minister who waged a heated campaign against Ahmadinejad's bid for reelection, urged his supporters to reject a "governance of lie and dictatorship." He attributed the results to widespread vote fraud and vowed to resist a "dangerous manipulation" of the balloting.
The demonstrators on the streets carried placards and shouted protests that the election had been stolen. The word in the crowd was that Mousavi would lead a march toward the Interior Ministry, where the votes were counted and which announced that Ahmadinejad had won with 62.6 percent of the vote to less than 34 percent for Mousavi.
"I'm warning that I won't surrender to this manipulation," Mousavi said in a statement posted on his Web site Saturday. He said the announced results were "shaking the pillars of the Islamic Republic of Iran's sacred system" and represented "treason to the votes of the people." He warned that the public would not "respect those who take power through fraud."
A senior official in Mousavi's campaign said reports that Mousavi was under house arrest were false.
Ahmadinejad will give a speech on television later tonight, and his supporters are expected to celebrate in the streets. A big celebration is planned for Sunday afternoon, and his supporters will have a victory rally at Azadi square.
Iranian media remained silent on the riots, which broke out soon after Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei congratulated Ahmadinejad. The police issued a statement saying that all gatherings were illegal.
The election stirred deep political passions among Iran's 46 million eligible voters, pitting Ahmadinejad, a populist who promised to help the poor and to make Iran a world power, against three challengers. Under Iran's system, if no candidate wins a clear majority, a runoff is to be held between the two top vote-getters.
Mousavi portrayed himself as the candidate for change, pledging to take a less confrontational tone in relations with the West and to provide more technocratic management of the economy. His campaign produced an outpouring of enthusiasm from youth, intellectuals and an older generation of Iranian leaders, while Ahmadinejad drew his core support from rural and working-class voters, plus elements of the military and conservative Islamic clergy.
Ahmadinejad, who has been president since 2005, did not make a statement immediately after the polls closed, but his supporters pointed to the Interior Ministry's official tally to claim victory. Mousavi's supporters charged that officials were trying to steal the election and cut off alternative sources of information. For several hours during the balloting Friday, they said, international telephone lines to Tehran were down and text messaging -- which Mousavi's supporters had used to organize street rallies -- was blocked. Members of the baseej, a paramilitary force of volunteers organized by the Revolutionary Guard Corps, reportedly seized a building in North Tehran that housed several Web sites supporting Mousavi, which were shut down.
A senior aide to another opposition candidate, Mehdi Karroubi, charged that the Interior Ministry was distorting the early vote count by providing results from the countryside and not cities. "We believe these results are void and not acceptable," said the aide, Morteza Alviri.
Mousavi, meanwhile, issued a written statement thanking the "dear people of Iran" for his victory.
"I would like to inform you that in spite of wide-ranging fraud and problem-making, according to the documents and reports we have received, the majority of your votes have been cast in favor of your servant," the statement said. It concluded with a veiled suggestion of a possible confrontation, calling his supporters into the streets to celebrate his victory Saturday night and warning that if the votes are not fairly counted, "I will use all legal facilities and methods to restore the rights of the Iranian people."
The Interior Ministry, which is overseeing the election and counting the votes, is headed by Sadegh Mahsouli, a staunch supporter of Ahmadinejad. But its results must be confirmed by the Guardian Council, a panel of senior Islamic clergymen led by Khamenei, the supreme leader. Khamenei and Mousavi, who was prime minister from 1981 to 1989, are members of an older generation of Iranian revolutionaries who overthrew the shah 30 years ago.
Can't say I didn't see that one coming.........
But on the other hand...is it really a bad thing if a substantial number of Iranians are angry at their existing government? ;)
greenberetTFS
06-13-2009, 15:56
But on the other hand...is it really a bad thing if a substantial number of Iranians are angry at their existing government?
I agree whole heartily,I think it's great that the other guy is crying fraud......:cool: I hope it escalates......:p Maybe,they may even have a riot over it............;)
GB TFS :munchin
In the event anyone wants to keep up with the current events as reported on Twitter, this LINK (http://www.reddit.com/comments/8sagz/so_much_for_24_hour_news_iran_erupting_and_cnn/) is available.
It includes comments and also brief videos of rioting. There is even a rumor of the takeover of a police station.
:munchin
MSM over-hype that didn't pan out the way they all hoped it would....
The percentage of how much he won by should NOT be over-looked! If it was much closer, I'd take a look at the possibility of fraud....:munchin
Stay safe.
Well, well, I guess they got ACORN over there also.:eek:
Defender968
06-14-2009, 07:38
But on the other hand...is it really a bad thing if a substantial number of Iranians are angry at their existing government? ;)
Not at all, I’d love to see an uprising from the Iranian populace to overthrow their government, the world would be better off, but I’m not holding my breath either.
MSM over-hype that didn't pan out the way they all hoped it would....
The percentage of how much he won by should NOT be over-looked! If it was much closer, I'd take a look at the possibility of fraud....:munchin
Stay safe.
One could argue that how much he won by could simply indicate that his minions were more efficient in their country at election fraud than Acorn is here in ours.
Utah Bob
06-14-2009, 07:54
Everybody who is shocked at this, raise your hand.
What's this? No hands?:rolleyes:
The only people who didn’t see this coming were the Iranian moderates.
This is essentially a generational conflict; the old guard of the revolution is attempting to remain in charge in the face of major demographic changes in the country. Let’s not forget that Iran has one of the youngest populations in terms of average in the world.
This is due in large part to the baby boom after the ending of the Iran/Iraq War. This new group of electors were eventually going to support a cause and attempt to exert their influence (many more are approaching voting age). In this case it was behind a pretty useless candidate who had the luxury of being connected enough to the old guard that he could not be called a traitor, was a popular prime minister (especially to the young because he oversaw the distribution of food during the afore mentioned war) and most importantly was not Ahmadinejad.
This new group rallied around the new leader quickly and efficiently. This has been a long time coming and the young just expected that power would eventually go towards them, no matter what the supreme leader did.
This was pretty silly the clash has been on the way for a while and the old guard just did what they will always do; rig the election (for evidence look at the result in Mousavi’s own hometown).
The problem for the Iranians now is that there is a large disaffected block that has no loyalty to the currant system. Their aggressive actions have also limited what they can do to fix this. So this problem will now fester until either the young block wins or some sort of compromise is reached. Though we are almost certainly stuck with Ahmadinejad and the nuclear weapons program and we may have no choice now but to do something pretty drastic about that.
That’s just my opinion and I may be wrong.
One could argue that how much he won by could simply indicate that his minions were more efficient in their country at election fraud than Acorn is here in ours.Exactly my point! The MSM over-hyped the election; NOT realizing political and religious power of the sitting Iranian president (Ahmadinejad).
Moussavi is just the lesser of two evils, even though his views "may" seem in alignment with the MSM...Since his stint as prime minister, Moussavi has been absent from politics. For the past 10 years, his official job has been to head the state-owned Art Center. He is a painter.
Stay safe.
I woke to.... here is no big suprise... PROTESTS still in Iran over the fraudulent election. And ooohh..get this... Obama regime still wants to open dialogue with A-Jad (as the news calls him now)whether he has "acorned" the election or not. I bet A-Jad really wishes he had borrowed the "kool-aid" recipe from Barry and Friends. :eek:
I see on Fox they are using the "beatings will continue, until morale improves" idea of appeasing the concerns of their people! There was a video clip curtesy of Twitter through Fox News. :rolleyes:
I can only assume that there will be no outrage over this from other countries because we wouldn't want to offend our muslim brothers!
MOO - but it's difficult to tell just yet how much is typical MSM hyperbole and - as was the case in Eastern Europe in 1989-90 - how much is an honestly growing movement against the policies of the current anachronistic ruling elites (whoever they may be) which may lead to something more significant.
It certainly didn't help when Ahmadinejad claimed victory with 62% of the vote after only about 20-25% of the votes had been counted.
Tens of thousands of supporters of Iran's defeated presidential candidate Mirhossein Mousavi gathered in downtown Tehran on Monday, defying an Interior Ministry ban.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090615/ts_nm/us_iran_election_76
The obese grand dame hasn't warbled as of yet with this one. ;)
Richard's $.02 :munchin
I heard on the news this morning that the Grand Ayatollah has launched an inquiry into the outcome of the election, to see if there was fraud involved. I'll see if I can find a link.
- For info on the Inquiry announced by Khamenei
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/16/world/middleeast/16iran.html?_r=1&hp
The result of the inquiry will be known in 10 days.
- For info on the rally held by Mousavi
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8101098.stm
- A study of the poll, evidence it was rigged
http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1904645_1904644,00.html
Surf n Turf
06-15-2009, 20:03
Article is in the German version. As VOA is sourced, it could be suspect. Other source “Radio Farda”, which is also a US sponsored activity.
SnT
"They've Brought In 5,000 Hezbollah For A "Showdown"?
That's what Der Spiegel is attributing to Voice of America. They're desperate and this is going to get bloodier.
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/06/theyve-brought-in-5000-hezbollah-for-a-showdown.html
Nach Berichten des Senders "Voice of America" sollen bis zu 5000 libanesische Kämpfer der Hisbollah-Miliz dem Regime beim Showdown zur Hand gehen.
Rough translation - News Service of Voice of America, said that 5000 Lebanese combat troops of Hezbollah to help the Iranian Regime with a showdown.
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/0,1518,630463-2,00.html
http://www.washingtontimes.com/weblogs/watercooler/2009/jun/15/revolutionary-guards-arrested-iran/
News coverage out of Iran is getting spotty. Wonder if this is true?
The impact of modern technology in thwarting a repressive government's attempts to isolate its citizens played a huge role in ending communist hegemony in Eastern Europe. It may do so in Iran as well.
Persepolis - an illustrated novel of young Iranians - is a good read on the complexity of the issues in the generational shifting within Iran.
Richard's $.02 :munchin
Social Networks Spread Iranian Defiance Online
Brad Stone and Noam Cohen, NYT, 15 Jun 2009
As the embattled government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad appears to be trying to limit Internet access and communications in Iran, new kinds of social media are challenging those traditional levers of state media control and allowing Iranians to find novel ways around the restrictions.
Iranians are blogging, posting to Facebook and, most visibly, coordinating their protests on Twitter, the messaging service. Their activity has increased, not decreased, since the presidential election on Friday and ensuing attempts by the government to restrict or censor their online communications.
On Twitter, reports and links to photos from a peaceful mass march through Tehran on Monday, along with accounts of street fighting and casualties around the country, have become the most popular topic on the service worldwide, according to Twitter’s published statistics.
A couple of Twitter feeds have become virtual media offices for the supporters of the leading opposition candidate, Mir Hussein Moussavi. One feed, mousavi1388 (1388 is the year in the Persian calendar), is filled with news of protests and exhortations to keep up the fight, in Persian and in English. It has more than 7,000 followers.
Mr. Moussavi’s fan group on Facebook has swelled to over 50,000 members, a significant increase since election day.
Labeling such seemingly spontaneous antigovernment demonstrations a “Twitter Revolution” has already become something of a cliché. That title had been given to the protests in Moldova in April.
But Twitter is aware of the power of its service. Acknowledging its role on the global stage, the San Francisco-based company said Monday that it was delaying a planned shutdown for maintenance for a day, citing “the role Twitter is currently playing as an important communication tool in Iran.”
Twitter users are posting messages, known as tweets, with the term #IranElection, which allows users to search for all tweets on the subject. On Monday evening, Twitter was registering about 30 new posts a minute with that tag.
One read, “We have no national press coverage in Iran, everyone should help spread Moussavi’s message. One Person = One Broadcaster. #IranElection.”
The Twitter feed StopAhmadi calls itself the “Dedicated Twitter account for Moussavi supporters” and has more than 6,000 followers. It links to a page on the photo-hosting site Flickr that includes dozens of pictures from the rally on Monday in Tehran.
The feed Persiankiwi, which has more than 15,000 followers, sends users to a page in Persian that is hosted by Google and, in its only English text, says, “Due to widespread filters in Iran, please view this site to receive the latest news, letters and communications from Mir Hussein Moussavi.”
Some Twitter users were also going on the offensive. On Monday morning, an antigovernment activist using the Twitter account “DDOSIran” asked supporters to visit a Web site to participate in an online attack to try to crash government Web sites by overwhelming them with traffic.
By Monday afternoon, many of those sites were not accessible, though it was not clear if the attack was responsible — and the Twitter account behind the attack had been removed. A Twitter spokeswoman said the company had no connection to the deletion of the account.
The crackdown on communications began on election day, when text-messaging services were shut down in what opposition supporters said was an attempt to block one of their most important organizing tools. Over the weekend, cellphone transmissions and access to Facebook and some other Web sites were also blocked.
Iranians continued to report on Monday that they could not send text messages.
But it appears they are finding ways around Big Brother.
Many Twitter users have been sharing ways to evade government snooping, such as programming their Web browsers to contact a proxy — or an Internet server that relays their connection through another country.
Austin Heap, a 25-year-old information technology consultant in San Francisco, is running his own private proxies to help Iranians, and is advertising them on Twitter. He said on Monday that his servers were providing the Internet connections for about 750 Iranians at any one moment.
“I think that cyber activism can be a way to empower people living under less than democratic governments around the world,” he said.
Global Internet Freedom Consortium, an Internet proxy service with ties to the banned Chinese spiritual movement Falun Gong, offers downloadable software to help evade censorship. It said its traffic from Iran had tripled in the last week.
Shiyu Zhou, founder of the organization, has no idea how links to the software spread within Iran. “In China we have sent mass e-mails, but nothing like in Iran,” he said. “The Iranian people actually found out by themselves and have passed this on by word of mouth.”
Jonathan Zittrain, a professor at Harvard Law School who is an expert on the Internet, said that Twitter was particularly resilient to censorship because it had so many ways for its posts to originate — from a phone, a Web browser or specialized applications — and so many outlets for those posts to appear.
As each new home for this material becomes a new target for censorship, he said, a repressive system faces a game of whack-a-mole in blocking Internet address after Internet address carrying the subversive material.
“It is easy for Twitter feeds to be echoed everywhere else in the world,” Mr. Zittrain said. “The qualities that make Twitter seem inane and half-baked are what make it so powerful.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/16/world/middleeast/16media.html?partner=rss&emc=rss
The impact of modern technology in thwarting a repressive government's attempts to isolate its citizens played a huge role in ending communist hegemony in Eastern Europe. It may do so in Iran as well.
I hope that you are right.
My concern is that the government's efforts to censor the grass-roots reporting of this event in the digital realm is actually its secondary goal and that the primary goal is to track end users as those end users provide the evidence of their own crimes.
IIRC, the Islamic Republic of Iran did an analog version of this kind of investigating during the twentieth century:eek: (an example is here (http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/nsa/publications/iran/irdoc1.jpg)).
They just reported that they are going to do a recount of the votes. According to the press, there were over 40 millions votes cast.
I wonder if they will find any hanging chads or that acorn had a part in this. :D
What i find funny is all the Iranian protesters here in the USA. They are voting and protesting about whats going on in "their" country while safe in the USA.
They just reported that they are going to do a recount of the votes.
Actually - a partial recount - shades of Katherine Harris. Maybe it'll wind up in the SCOTUS for a final decision and they'll declare GWB the new President of Iran. All kidding aside - stranger things have happened amongst the political bedfellows of the world. ;)
REMEMBER - just because the final tally seems fishy does not mean that Ahmadinejad did not win the election - although that may be a difficult position to justify once the suspicion of voter malfeasance has been spread amongst the masses. Grab your T-POTS (Tinfoil helmets) and hang on for this one. :D
Richard's $.02 :munchin
Source is here (http://www.reuters.com/articlePrint?articleId=USTRE55F6FV20090617).
Iran protests "interventionist" U.S. statements
Wed Jun 17, 2009 4:08pm EDT
TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran's Foreign Ministry summoned the Swiss ambassador, who represents U.S. interests in Tehran, on Wednesday to protest at "interventionist" U.S. statements on the country's election, Fars News Agency reported.
The Foreign Ministry communicated Iran's "protest and displeasure" over statements by U.S. government officials about the outcome of last week's presidential vote, Iran's semi-official news agency said.
In Washington, the White House said President Barack Obama will continue to defend the right of Iranians to peacefully protest the outcome of the election without "meddling" in Iran's internal debate.
"The people of Iran reserve the right to have their voices heard and their votes counted," said U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. "The outcome of any election should reflect the will of the people and it is for the Iranians to determine how they resolve this internal protest concerning the outcome of the recent election."
The State Department strongly rejected claims that the U.S. was interfering in the disputed June 12 election, pointing out that diplomats from other countries had also been summoned.
"I suspect we are in good company," said State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley. "This is not about the United States."
A senior Canadian diplomat in Tehran had also been called in to the ministry, Fars News Agency said. On Tuesday, several European ambassadors were also summoned.
Major Western nations have questioned the fairness of the official vote results which showed hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had won a landslide against moderate Mirhossein Mousavi. The result sparked days of protests in Tehran and elsewhere.
U.S. President Barack Obama said the upheaval showed that "Iranian people are not convinced with the legitimacy of the election."
"The president will continue to express those concerns and ensure that we're not meddling," White House spokesman Robert Gibbs told reporters on Wednesday.
"Obviously, there is international concern for the way an election was conducted, and it's being looked into, and certainly we believe rightfully so," Gibbs said.
Crowley said it was up to Iran to resolve concerns over the election in a credible, transparent and peaceful way.
"As the president has said repeatedly, we have serious concerns about what is going on. It is up to the Iranian government to address these in a credible way, and we will be watching closely," said Crowley.
The United States severed ties with Tehran shortly after Iran's 1979 Islamic revolution. After he took office in January, Obama has offered a new beginning of engagement with Iran if it "unclenches its fist."
(Reporting by Hashem Kalantari, additional reporting by Sue Pleming and Doug Palmer in Washington; writing by Fredrik Dahl, editing by Anthony Boadle)
File under "irony." The current president does what he can to silence debate in his own country and then encourages it abroad.
Sigaba..here is a lil more irony for ya:
June 19, 2009
"Allahu akbar" from dissidents in Tehran
Here is a different perspective on the cries of "Allahu akbar" in Tehran, which I noted here. Khomeini encouraged his mobs to shout it during the 1979 Revolution -- and now it is being shouted against the mullahs. But is that connection with the Khomeini Revolution an indication that these protesters don't want to see sweeping change in Iran and an end to the Islamic Republic?
Bears watching. oh yes, it does
"'God is Great' echoes throughout Tehran," from AP, June 19 (thanks to DF):
TEHRAN, Iran (AP) - Tehran residents are climbing to their roofs and crying "God is Great!" in open defiance of Iran's supreme leader.
The late-night cries of "Allahu Akbar!" and "Death to the Dictator!" throughout Tehran Friday are a direct challenge to the cleric who has ultimate authority under Iran's constitution. They come hours after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned opposition supporters to stop protesting the June 12 election they say was rigged in favor of hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi borrowed the tactic from the 1979 Islamic Revolution led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who asked Iranians to show unity against the U.S.-backed shah by shouting "Allahu Akbar" from their roofs....
http://www.jihadwatch.org/archives/026657.php
Sigaba..here is a lil more irony for ya:
Was not active in '79, but Today's protests seem to be good fuel to the fire, IMHO!!! Can only hope that my fellow Americans see this uprising as a good thing!!! :lifter
Holly
Was not active in '79, but Today's protests seem to be good fuel to the fire, IMHO!!! Can only hope that my fellow Americans see this uprising as a good thing!!! :lifter
HollyAll I need is a uprising right next door too, complicate the June 30th withdrawal out of major cities!:(
I like that Iran is having a MSM blackout, it keeps some of the savages from stoking the fire.:D
Stay safe.
A good oped piece on the situation by Friedman. ;)
Richard's $.02 :munchin
Bullets and Barrels
Thomas Friedman, NYT, 20 Jun 2009
The popular uprising unfolding in Iran right now really is remarkable. It is the rarest of rare things — more rare than snow in Saudi Arabia, more unlikely than finding a ham sandwich at the Wailing Wall, more unusual than water-skiing in the Sahara. It is a popular uprising in a Middle Eastern oil state.
Why is this so unusual? Because in most Middle East states, power grows out of the barrel of a gun and out of a barrel of oil — and that combination is very hard to overthrow.
Oil is a key reason that democracy has had such a hard time emerging in the Middle East, except in one of the few states with no oil: Lebanon. Because once kings and dictators seize power, they can entrench themselves, not only by imprisoning their foes and killing their enemies, but by buying off their people and using oil wealth to build huge internal security apparatuses.
There is only one precedent for an oil-funded autocrat in the Middle East being toppled by a people’s revolution, not by a military coup, and that was in ... Iran.
Recall that in 1979, when the Iranian people rose up against the shah of Iran in an Islamic Revolution spearheaded by Ayatollah Khomeini, the shah controlled the army, the Savak secret police and a vast network of oil-funded patronage. But at some point, enough people taking to the streets and defying his authority, and taking bullets as well, broke the shah’s spell. All the shah’s horses and all the shah’s men, couldn’t put his regime back together again.
The Islamic Revolution has learned from the shah. It has used its oil wealth — Iran is the world’s fifth-largest oil producer, exporting about 2.1 million barrels a day at around $70 a barrel — to buy off huge swaths of the population with cheap housing, government jobs and subsidized food and gasoline. It’s also used its crude to erect a vast military force — namely the Revolutionary Guard and the Basij militia — to keep itself in power.
Therefore, the big question in Iran today is: Can the green revolution led by Mir Hussein Moussavi, and backed by masses of street protestors, do to the Islamic regime what Ayatollah Khomeini and the Iranian people did to the shah’s regime — break its spell so all its barrels and bullets become meaningless?
Iran’s ruling mullahs were always ruthless. But they disguised it a bit with faux elections. I say faux elections because while the regime may have counted the votes accurately, it tightly controlled who could run. The choices were dark black and light black.
What happened this time is that the anger at the regime had reached such a level — because of near-20 percent unemployment and a rising youth population tired of seeing their life’s options limited by theocrats — that given a choice between a dark black regime candidate and a light black regime candidate, millions of Iranians turned out for light black: Mr. Moussavi. The Iranian people turned the regime man into their own candidate, and he seems to have been transformed by them. That is why the regime panicked and stole the election.
The playwright Tom Stoppard once observed that democracy is not the voting, “it’s the counting.” Iran’s mullahs were always ready to allow voting, as long as the counting didn’t matter, because a regime man was always going to win. But what happened this time was that in the little crack of space that the regime had to allow for even a faux election, some kind of counter-revolution was born.
Yes, its leader, Mr. Moussavi, surely is less liberal than most of his followers. But just his lighter shade of black attracted and unleashed so much pent-up frustration and hope for change among many Iranians that he became an independent candidate and, thus, his votes simply could not be counted — because they were not just a vote for him, but were a referendum against the entire regime.
But now, having voted with their ballots, Iranians who want a change will have to vote again with their bodies. A regime like Iran’s can only be brought down or changed if enough Iranians vote as they did in 1979 — in the street. That is what the regime fears most, because then it either has to shoot its own people or cede power. That is why it was no accident that the “supreme leader,” Ayatollah Khamenei, warned protestors in his Friday speech that “street challenge is not acceptable.” That’s a man who knows how he got his job.
And so the gauntlet is now thrown down. If the reformers want change, they are going to have to form a leadership, lay out their vision for Iran and keep voting in the streets — over and over and over. Only if they keep showing up with their bodies, and by so doing saying to their regime “we cannot be bought and we will not be cowed,” will their ballots be made to count.
I am rooting for them and fearing for them. Any real moderation of Iran’s leadership would have a hugely positive effect on the Middle East. But we and the reformers must have no illusions about the bullets and barrels they are up against.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/21/opinion/21friedman.html?_r=1
uboat509
06-21-2009, 08:29
Americans need to be wary of assuming that anti-Ahmadinejad means pro-American. It does not. Certainly there are pro-American elements within the opposition, but they are not the majority. There is some great analysis of the whole thing here (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=7588), and here (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=7626).
SFC W
Americans need to be wary of assuming that anti-Ahmadinejad means pro-American. It does not.All the MSM hype is confusing most people of "whom" actually controls the government of Iran!
Stay safe.
Two thirds of Iran's population in under 30. They are also highly educated.
They are not going to live under the rule of the +55 theocrats forever. This crisis will resolve itself one way or another.
If it happens now, or later it doesn’t really mater. Those people will inevitably decide Iran’s future. All they need is issues like this one to rally around.
I read in a French newspaper this morning that there were more votes than peoples registered on the voting lists in about 50 districts (Iran has 170 districts total)
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/23/world/middleeast/23iran.html?_r=1&hp
They are not going to live under the rule of the +55 theocrats forever. This crisis will resolve itself one way or another.
If it happens now, or later it doesn’t really mater. Those people will inevitably decide Iran’s future. All they need is issues like this one to rally around.1. The Iraqi government/people is NOT in place and/or stable enough too support/sustain itself.
2. The Afghan war has spread into Pakistan.
3. God only knows what "crazy-ass" N. Korea is up to.
4. The US economy is NOT at its best.
It always amazes me how people jump on the MSM bandwagon of "Democracy & Freedom" only too participate from the sidelines....
Stay safe.
Guy your quote says it all
“Leaders can be removed - but you cannot "give" someone democracy - they have to create it”
What is going on inside Iran is an internal matter. It has to do with demographics as much as it does with ideology. For the sake of argument its worth simply saying that the Iranian revolution of ’79 has really yet to go through its Thermidorian Reaction phase. This issue must be settled internally. Therefore what is happening in North Korea has really got nothing to do with it.
Also there is very little we can do about it either. In fact western nations cannot be seen to be actively interfering. That would give the regime a propaganda coup that would probably be decisive in the protests.
Therefore we are all on the sidelines together
This is essentially a generational conflict[.]
It has to do with demographics as much as it does with ideology.
Polling data indicate that there may be additional factors at work (story below) as does the assassination of Neda Soltan <<LINK (http://www.myfoxla.com/dpp/news/national/Remembering_Neda_Agha_Soltan_20090622)>>.
Source is here (http://www.muslimwestfacts.com/mwf/120893/Even-Dispute-Iranians-Split-Honesty-Elections.aspx?version=print).
Related graphics are available here (http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/MWF/vehp5vnykegpjxay2813ag.gif), here (http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/MWF/-pkr4qiwnee0sojjehbc3w.gif), there (http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/MWF/vtrkzgafzeccmovtntrumq.gif), and here (http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/MWF/2arfeu5maeapq1zho7uscw.gif). MOO, the last image is very interesting.
June 16, 2009
Even Before Dispute, Iranians Split on Honesty of Elections
Urban Iranians far less likely than rural Iranians to express trust
by Julie Ray
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- A Gallup Poll conducted in Iran in 2008 found citizens divided on the honesty of their country's elections before last week's controversial presidential election: 50% of Iranians surveyed in May 2008, shortly after last year's parliamentary elections, said they were confident in their elections, while 40% said they were not.
Gallup's survey reveals striking differences in the faith that urban Iranians and rural Iranians placed in elections. Following the election in 2008, rural Iranians (66%) were nearly twice as likely as urban residents (36%) to express confidence in their elections.
Young Iranians -- who make up the lion's share of Iran's population and of those protesting the outcome of the recent election -- are less likely than older Iranians to express confidence in their elections. Forty-three percent of Iranians aged 15 to 29 said in 2008 that they had confidence, versus 56% of Iranians aged 30 and older who said the same.
Confidence in Elections Across the Globe
While just 50% of Iranians surveyed last year said they were confident in their country's elections, Iranians' confidence compared favorably with results from other countries in many parts of the world. In fact, Americans surveyed as part of the World Poll before the November 2008 U.S. presidential election were essentially as likely as Iranians to say they were confident in their country's elections (47% vs. 50%). Further, the percentage of Iranians who expressed confidence was actually higher than the 41% median confidence across more than 140 countries where this question was asked between 2006 and 2009.
Iranians' confidence compared positively with other views in the Middle East and North Africa, where the regional median for confidence in elections is 45%. Within the region, Iranians were more likely than Moroccans (20%), Iraqis (25%), Egyptians (28%), Israelis (32%), Algerians (35%), Lebanese (39%), and Yemenis (43%) to say they are confident. Iranians' confidence was more similar to that of Saudis' (49%), Palestinians' (47%), and Turks' (47%).
Compared with populations outside the Middle East and North Africa, Iranians expressed more confidence than did residents in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, the former Soviet Union, and the Americas. However, Iranians were less likely than residents in many European and Asian countries to express confidence in their respective countries' elections.
Bottom Line
Gallup Polls reveal that Iranians were divided on the honesty of their elections before the country's current crisis. That said, Iranians turned out in record number to cast their votes on Election Day. For some urban and young Iranians who were already disillusioned, the country's recent elections may have been the last straw. After the protests end, Iran may still have the same leadership, but that leadership will likely have to work even harder to build trust and engagement within the electorate.
Survey Methods
Results are based on face-to-face interviews with approximately 1,040 adults, aged 15 and older, conducted April 30 to May 31, 2008, in Iran. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3.5 percentage points. The margin of error reflects the influence of data weighting. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
For the sake of argument its worth simply saying that the Iranian revolution of ’79 has really yet to go through its Thermidorian Reaction phase.
Does a Eurocentric perspective really help understand events in the east in their own terms?
Sigaba
Everything you have argued here is totally 100% valid. I agree that there is a systemic lack of confidence in the Iranian electoral process. It seems that the Iranian’s have more confidence in their polling than we do. It’s probably impossible to know whose opinion is right. The Urban/Rural divide is also a good point to make.
What you have said about a Eurocentric position is to an extent right. It could also be argued that my statement is incorrect because all revolutions are different. It could further be said that it’s wrong because this may not be a revolution. It was a simplistic statement. I could make an articulated essay style response it wouldn’t be very interesting. Suffice to say, comparing any one situation to another is never correct but it is useful. Therefore a thermidor comparison is simplistic but useful.
Where are Iran’s Liberals?
http://politics.theatlantic.com/2009/06/provocation_of_the_day_irans_opposition_elites_are _manipulating_the_protestors.php