View Full Version : New Solar Cycle Prediction
BMT (RIP)
05-30-2009, 14:44
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/29may_noaaprediction.htm
BMT
BMT
In this area, we have a conservative talk show program. The Warroom, with Quinn and Rose. The host has been trying to alert the public for the past year or so of the effects caused by the lack of sunspots.
While all of those "In the know" have been chicken littleing about global warming, the lack of solar flares has gone basically un-reported.
Global cooling is a much more impending threat than global warming.
If you look at the chart depicting the Maunder Minimum, and cross reference its effects on the planet, it shows quite a difference between what the global warming alarmists are spouting and what science has PROVEN can happen.
http://coldfusion-guy.blogspot.com/2009/05/maunder-minimum-and-global-cooling.html
Electron
06-01-2009, 14:26
As long as I've been associated with the SF, the 18E's have always had their eye on sun spots in regard to RF transmissions. Particularly when I was in 7th during that time in their area at the time. The lack of spots could mean better comms instead of the end of the earth.
Ret10Echo
06-01-2009, 15:08
If you want to look at some more info concerning Solar Weather, this is the link to the NOAA site:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/index.html
Most of the conversations I have heard that speak of warnings have been from a DOE representative who warns of the potential for a CME. (ala' March 13, 1989 Quebec blackout... but worse)
As long as I've been associated with the SF, the 18E's have always had their eye on sun spots in regard to RF transmissions
Exactly: The information regarding the Maunder Minimum was passed on to me by an N.G. Echo who is also a ham radio operator.
Well, anybody who makes their living on HF radio (an 05B4S qualified back when I wuz one) always pays attention to sunspot numbers - but low numbers are NOT a good thing. VHF/UHF and sat-comm think its great , of course, but us ol' HF rats wanted more solar flux, not less..:)
I want more sun spots!!!! The winds..Let them blow..
Get another power systems ready for your home..
My tin hat is at the ready!!!!
:munchin
PS. HF is King!!!
LongWire
02-16-2011, 20:12
Solar Boom!!!!
http://news.discovery.com/space/solar-boom-sun-unleashes-monster-flare.html#mkcpgn=rssnws1
Red Flag 1
02-17-2011, 09:55
I'll bet the higher latitudes are in for some awesome shows!
Good to hear from you rt1!!
RF 1
Well, anybody who makes their living on HF radio (an 05B4S qualified back when I wuz one) always pays attention to sunspot numbers - but low numbers are NOT a good thing. VHF/UHF and sat-comm think its great , of course, but us ol' HF rats wanted more solar flux, not less..:)
AMEN...
The more solar activity, the denser the ozone, the higher the HF freqs, the better the HF comms.
and the HF calls home...:D......over....
Mar. 2, 2011 (Reuters)
http://www.newsdaily.com/stories/tre721874-us-sunspots/
and from here:
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v471/n7336/full/nature09786.html
The unusual minimum of sunspot cycle 23 caused by meridional plasma flow variations
Direct observations over the past four centuries show that the number of sunspots observed on the Sun’s surface varies periodically, going through successive maxima and minima. Following sunspot cycle 23, the Sun went into a prolonged minimum characterized by a very weak polar magnetic field, and an unusually large number of days without sunspots. Sunspots are strongly magnetized regions generated by a dynamo mechanism that recreates the solar polar field mediated through plasma flows. Here we report results from kinematic dynamo simulations which demonstrate that a fast meridional flow in the first half of a cycle, followed by a slower flow in the second half, reproduces both characteristics of the minimum of sunspot cycle 23. Our model predicts that, in general, very deep minima are associated with weak polar fields. Sunspots govern the solar radiative energy, and radio flux, and, in conjunction with the polar field, modulate the solar wind, the heliospheric open flux and, consequently, the cosmic ray flux at Earth
Badger52
03-07-2011, 12:35
AMEN...
The more solar activity, the denser the ozone, the higher the HF freqs, the better the HF comms.
and the HF calls home...:D......over....Shock. My local substation didn't melt like some state fusion center said it would. Am lovin' the numbers. Can't recall if albeham or Ret10Echo said it but, yep, you guys can walk out, I'd like a ride home.
Man I wish I had an HF rig setup here. I used to dream of the next solar peak back when I first got my license (just after the last peak).
The story of the 1859 storm is incredible - telegraphs operating without their batteries. Northern Lights visible from the Caribbean. This one they're calling for visibility from MN and WI. Still pretty amazing.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/06/us-utilities-noaa-solarstorms-idUSTRE7746UA20110806
Power companies prepare as solar storms set to hit Earth
1:04pm EDT
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Three large explosions from the Sun over the past few days have prompted U.S. government scientists to caution users of satellite, telecommunications and electric equipment to prepare for possible disruptions over the next few days.
"The magnetic storm that is soon to develop probably will be in the moderate to strong level," said Joseph Kunches, a space weather scientist at the Space Weather Prediction Center, a division of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
He said solar storms this week could affect communications and global positioning system (GPS) satellites and might even produce an aurora visible as far south as Minnesota and Wisconsin.
An aurora, called aurora borealis or the northern lights in northern latitudes, is a natural light display in the sky in the Arctic and Antarctic regions caused by the collision of energetic charged particles with atoms in the high altitude atmosphere.
Major disruptions from solar activity are rare but have had serious impacts in the past.
In 1989, a solar storm took down the power grid in Quebec, Canada, leaving about six million people without power for several hours.
The largest solar storm ever recorded was in 1859 when communications infrastructure was limited to telegraphs.
The 1859 solar storm hit telegraph offices around the world and caused a giant aurora visible as far south as the Caribbean Islands.
Some telegraph operators reported electric shocks. Papers caught fire. And many telegraph systems continued to send and receive signals even after operators disconnected batteries, NOAA said on its website.
A storm of similar magnitude today could cause up to $2 trillion in damage globally, according to a 2008 report by the National Research Council.
"I don't think this week's solar storms will be anywhere near that. This will be a two or three out of five on the NOAA Space Weather Scale," said Kunches.
SOLAR SCALE
The NOAA Space Weather Scale measures the intensity of a solar storm from one being the lowest intensity to five being the highest, similar to scales that measure the severity of hurricanes, tornadoes and earthquakes.
The first of the three solar explosions from the sun this week already passed the Earth on Thursday with little impact, Kunches said, noting, the second was passing the Earth now and "seems to be stronger."
And the third, he said, "We'll have to see what happens over the next few days. It could exacerbate the disturbance in the Earth's magnetic field caused by the second (storm) or do nothing at all."
Power grid managers receive alerts from the Space Weather Prediction Center to tell them to prepare for solar events, which peak about every 12 years, Tom Bogdan, director of the center said.
He said the next peak, called a solar maximum, was expected in 2013.
"We're coming up to the next solar maximum, so we expect to see more of these storms coming from the sun over the next three to five years," Bogdan said.
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Alden Bentley)
Badger52
08-10-2011, 14:05
Man I wish I had an HF rig setup here. I used to dream of the next solar peak back when I first got my license (just after the last peak).
The story of the 1859 storm is incredible - telegraphs operating without their batteries. Northern Lights visible from the Caribbean. This one they're calling for visibility from MN and WI. Still pretty amazing.
Past few days some guys who were limited to SSB skills were really crying; sounded as if they'd been holed up with Al Gore or something. Dang, I was so busy discounting the gloom & doom that said I couldn't communicate, while keying up the Vibroplex with the guy in New Zealand, that I forgot to look outside to see if there were any pretty green lights dancing...
Shucks.
Apparently there was a X6.9 size solar flare approx 0800Z yesterday. (http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/News080911-xclass.html)
ya know....I'm happy this is happening...with all the "we don't do HF anymore...it's obsolete" stuff....
Refering to the thread HF is going away in 18E course....nt gonna happen...anyway...maybe wake some eyes up on how sensitive/vulnerable this high speed/technical/gadgetry is...
But yup...higher the better...(well, as long as we're not gettin microwaved) higher freqs...shorter antennas...LOL...don't gotta bust your ass so far through the bush...haaa
Peregrino
03-07-2012, 21:52
More resources to track Solar Weather. Got this at work from a Pimblegram.
Subject: Solar storms and impacts
The sun is quite active at this time, and you’ll likely hear news reports of this storming. For better understanding, here are some links to NOAA and USAF space weather sites. The Air Force and NOAA share similar capabilities but present them differently, each according to the needs of their users.
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
SWPC and Johns Hopkins auroral forecast (test): http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/
NOAA Space Weather Scales (including impacts and frequency of occurrence): http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/ (NOAA Scales table in Adobe .pdf format)
The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center maintains a Facebook page that is currently an experimental effort. It often includes highlights explained in a user-friendly discussion: http://www.facebook.com/pages/NOAA-NWS-Space-Weather-Prediction-Center/232532740131296
Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) Space Weather Page: https://weather.afwa.af.mil/jaawin/space/main.jsp (Requires CAC and may require registration. Note: many of the data linked from this site are rather arcane and require significant background for understanding.)
Global Situational Awareness: https://weather.afwa.af.mil/static/space/pages/E&IMap.html
Discussion: https://weather.afwa.af.mil/JAAWINSupport/imageproxy?regioncode=OTHER&producttype=SPACE~SPWXSUM2
Reported impacts: https://weather.afwa.af.mil/JAAWINSupport/imageproxy?regioncode=GLOBAL&producttype=SPACE~SPWXSUM4
If you have questions/need more information for official purposes, please contact us.
Regards,
JAW
OL-D, AFSOC/A3
Staff Weather Office
U.S. Army Special Operations Command
Ft Bragg, NC 28310
Team Sergeant
03-08-2012, 08:54
If you start seeing transformers blowing & catching fire head to the nearest grocery store and stock up!:munchin
Curious to see the effect if any on COMSATs.
Dozer523
03-08-2012, 11:33
As long as I've been associated with the SF, the 18E's have always had their eye on sun spots in regard to RF transmissions. Oh . . . . yeah. And don't forget: "Face that direction, now turn around three times clockwise . . . uh-huh, yeah. Now, Team Leader, Hold this . . .higher, more to the left -- no my left. . . Okay, spin yourself twice counter-clockwise Team Leader. Higher, more to the right, your right . . . lower. . . like that Team Leader. Now close your eyes . . . yeah, yeah, that's doin' it. . . ." Sunspot Truth? Excuses and payback:D
More resources to track Solar Weather. Got this at work from a Pimblegram.
Subject: Solar storms and impacts
The sun is quite active at this time, and you’ll likely hear news reports of this storming. For better understanding, here are some links to NOAA and USAF space weather sites. The Air Force and NOAA share similar capabilities but present them differently, each according to the needs of their users.
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
SWPC and Johns Hopkins auroral forecast (test): http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/
NOAA Space Weather Scales (including impacts and frequency of occurrence): http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/ (NOAA Scales table in Adobe .pdf format)
The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center maintains a Facebook page that is currently an experimental effort. It often includes highlights explained in a user-friendly discussion: http://www.facebook.com/pages/NOAA-NWS-Space-Weather-Prediction-Center/232532740131296
Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) Space Weather Page: https://weather.afwa.af.mil/jaawin/space/main.jsp (Requires CAC and may require registration. Note: many of the data linked from this site are rather arcane and require significant background for understanding.)
Global Situational Awareness: https://weather.afwa.af.mil/static/space/pages/E&IMap.html
Discussion: https://weather.afwa.af.mil/JAAWINSupport/imageproxy?regioncode=OTHER&producttype=SPACE~SPWXSUM2
Reported impacts: https://weather.afwa.af.mil/JAAWINSupport/imageproxy?regioncode=GLOBAL&producttype=SPACE~SPWXSUM4
If you have questions/need more information for official purposes, please contact us.
Regards,
JAW
OL-D, AFSOC/A3
Staff Weather Office
U.S. Army Special Operations Command
Ft Bragg, NC 28310
http://www.spaceweather.com is another good link.
If you are working in the HF range there is some good information that can be derived from the superDARN site (http://vt.superdarn.org/tiki-index.php)
Badger52
03-12-2012, 11:08
If you start seeing transformers blowing & catching fire head to the nearest grocery store and stock up!:munchinCME x 2 and here we still are. Short periods of various HF bands (voice) in the tank all weekend but nothing largely shutdown. ('Course the airliners & Airbus freight guys on the polar routes, with that 44' section of tail as their antenna, get affected more than most.)
I did fail in terms of standing around waiting for the TEOTWAWKI.
Munchies already stocked. Yawn; went anywhere I wanted on CW.
TOMAHAWK9521
04-13-2019, 09:03
Bump!
Interesting article on the magnetosphere. Looks like the north pole has been colluding with Russia!
"Most of the experts also believe that a pole flip is still a long way off, but what everybody agrees on is that the magnetic north pole is moving toward Russia at an accelerating pace…
But what’s really catching attention is the acceleration in movement. Around the mid-1990s, the pole suddenly sped up its movements from just over 9 miles (15 kilometers) a year to 34 miles (55 kilometers) annually. As of last year, the pole careened over the international date line toward the Eastern Hemisphere."
So, the Klintons were in office in the 1990s and the north pole accelerates moving closer to Russia. Coincidence? Hmmm.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-12/weakening-earths-magnetic-field-has-greatly-accelerated
Naahhh, we need to confide in Al Gore and climate change....yeah, that's it...