The World in 2050?

[Richard]

New book predicting the world most of us might still be around for and offering some ideas worth considering. ;)

Richard's $.02 :munchin

A Brief History of the Future: A Brave and Controversial Look at the Twenty-First Century
Jacques Attali

The Gist: Imagine a world where pirates run amok, blowing themselves up in European city centers; where wars are ignited over lack of drinking water; where a global face-off between Islam and Christianity makes World War II look like a water-balloon fight. According to economist and political scientist Jacques Attali, that is what the future has in store for us by 2025. In the belief that past experiences are indicative future events, Attali combs through the history of human kind, all the way back to Homo Habilis, separating the past into nine distinct periods to isolate "what is possible, what changes and what is unvarying" and applies those trends to the coming century. Attali's predictions range from the future of journalism (completely paperless) to the end of the economic crisis (around 2011), offering a glimpse into the future that is both provocative and petrifying.

On the future of the American empire: "After a very long struggle and in the midst of a serious ecological crisis, the still dominant empire- the United States- will finally be defeated around 2035 by the same globalization of the markets (particularly the financial ones), and by the power of corporations. Financially and politically exhausted, like all other empires before it, the United States will cease to run the world. But it will remain the planet's major power; no new empire or dominant nation will replace it. The world will temporarily become polycentric with a dozen or so regional powers managing its affairs."

NGOs on steroids?

On the future of weapons of mass destruction: "Now pointed at Japan, North Korea's missiles will one day target the United States and China. The missiles of Pakistan fallen into the hands of fundamentalists will threaten first India, then Europe. Those of Hezbollah — in other words, Iran — that now target Israel will one day be pointed at Cairo, Riyadh, Algiers, Tunis, Casablanca, Istanbul, then at Rome, Madrid, London and Paris. Should the battle lines harden and the country be threatened with annihilation, China's missiles could one day target Japan and the United States."

Conclusion: Attali correctly notes that our future is not inevitable. Mankind must learn how to appropriately respond to the crises and opportunities that await us, and grow cognizant of the fact that large-scale violence can be so dangerous to humanity so that we become "aware of the need for a radical change in attitude." Whether his predictions are worth taking seriously or not, they all inevitably turn on the endless capacity of human resilience — a notion that appears to be the only true constant for the future, and the most reassuring.

[nmap]

Judging by the dates, I'd say he's a bit of an optimist.

I expect to see significant breakdowns well before 2025.

A temporary move upward in the economy may occur by 2011 - however, I suspect it will be short-lived.

The water issue is a big one.

Islam versus the rest of the world is also a big issue - but less because of the clash of cultures than due to population overshoot.

Still, thank you for adding some doomer red meat to the day! ;)

[nmap]

Rangertab1, have you ever heard of Jevon's paradox? It suggests that conservation isn't just hard, it's impossible. The reason is that if some people conserve, the price of the commodity will go down. And the lower price will stimulate demand. Whether its oil or water, corn or something else, conservation cannot work.

And then there is the economy as a whole. Conservation (which is what the deep changes are all about) may be a private virtue, but it hurts the economy. So if I use less of something, then whoever is selling that something gets hurt.

We've boxed ourselves in, and I think any road out is going to be unpleasant.

[perdurabo]

For what it's worth, the years 2037-2038 will be quite interesting. This when many of the world's 32-bit computer software will run out of bits, literally. 32-bit will be around for a long, long time.

It will be much more fun than Y2K was. I anticipate it'll get handled well as it can, and there won't be riots and TEOTWAWKI, but it's going to be fun for computer guys and the hapless victims of technology.

Most of you older folks don't have to worry, you won't be alive then, but for the rest of us... :D :lifter

[Knight]

Looking that far ahead is a pipe dream by the way things look today. Optimism is a necessary mindset, but if we don't take that attitude "today", (here and now), and demand some MAJOR changes, the future is not ours for sure.
It's gonna take a collaborative effort from all of us who believe in a future for this country and the world for that matter, or the path to destruction is only going to be full of less obstacles to slow it down.
Hate to put this spin on it, but it seems that the writing is on the wall. Mankind is the most productive yet destructive creation ever, and I fear for my children as well as the whole younger generation.
Good luck and may God bless us all!:)

[Kyobanim]

For what it's worth, the years 2037-2038 will be quite interesting. This when many of the world's 32-bit computer software will run out of bits, literally. 32-bit will be around for a long, long time.

It will be much more fun than Y2K was. I anticipate it'll get handled well as it can, and there won't be riots and TEOTWAWKI, but it's going to be fun for computer guys and the hapless victims of technology.

Most of you older folks don't have to worry, you won't be alive then, but for the rest of us... :D :lifter

Don't tell me that you honestly believe that we will still have 32 bit software and hardware in 30 years? Check your history on processors. I'd be suprised if there is 32 bit stuff in 10 years let alone 30 years. Hell, I doubt that we'll even be using processors as we know them today.

And I plan on being there, even if it is in a hover-wheelchair.

[perdurabo]

Don't tell me that you honestly believe that we will still have 32 bit software and hardware in 30 years? Check your history on processors. I'd be suprised if there is 32 bit stuff in 10 years let alone 30 years. Hell, I doubt that we'll even be using processors as we know them today.

And I plan on being there, even if it is in a hover-wheelchair.

Indeed, we will have 32-bit processors in use and perhaps even production 30 years from now. Although, it'll probably be in places people don't initially think about: consumer electronics, professional electronics, embedded electronics (cars, media players, appliances, communications).

I see the main areas of concern being microcontroller and embedded applications. In computer sub-systems, vehicles, public utility equipment, consumer devices, communications equipment, and so on. Remember that systems are usually composed of primary computational units, plus several microcontrollers to control a system's various subsystems.

The current microprocessor lines of the Atmel AVR series (8-32 bit) and the Phillips LPC (32-bit ARM) are becoming increasingly popular at the moment amongst OEMs as per-unit prices plummet. A lot of this stuff is still going to be around in 30 years.

This isn't all that hard to believe. Look at things now: 8-bit variants of the Z-80 microprocessor, which were initially released in the mid-70s are not only still in use, but still *in production* over 30 years later. You still even see 6502 microprocessors in the embedded technology space, and these are a year or two older than the Z-80. That's pretty much a given.

I think we'll see an increased focus on SoCs ("system on a chip", where previously separate chips are combined onto one chip die) and FPGAs ("field-programmable gate arrays" -- or rather, whatever they evolve into) and other "polymorphic" hardware (such as Transmeta's polymorphic technology, which was acquired and licensed to other chip makers).

That said, I don't plan on stocking up on any more ammo or pulling out the lawn chair to watch the apocalypse. We'll have problems, but we'll sort them out.

[Scimitar]

CRYSTAL BALL GAZING A LITTLE CLOSER TO HOME

I'm no DoD expert, and I look forward to comments from those more educated in this area then I but....

From my reading so far, it seems most agree that of those of us who 'are in' or who are 'going in' to the Military this will be our likely ‘career paths’ in the near to middle future.

- Possible fighting Chinese and Russian surrogates mainly in Asia and Africa. (Korea-esq / Vietnam-esq)
- Probable deposing of States that support terrorists. (UW / Nation Building)

From the reports coming out that are gearing up for the 09-QDR that I’ve read, that appears to be where to DoD is focusing.

Perhaps these statements seem obvious to those in the know? It's just interesting to think about, as someone who's 'going in' what I'm likely to be doing in the next 5-15 years.

Oh did I forget to mention a freakin load of FID. (I wonder who's going be tasked with most of that?)

Interestingly enough, as a yet to be Military type, I didn't really get how much FID is going to rely on SF until I actually looked at the FID Assets.

1) Same aave said that conventional forces can only carry a relatively small / peripherial amount of the FID load.
2) There are currently geared to be 23 SF Battalions who can focus on FID (counting ARNG as 50% due to lesser deploy-ability)
3) If you add up the proposed growth of MARSOC (4 Bats+-) & SEALs (5 Bats +-), (the other two main units tasked with ground FID) you only get around 9 Bats and of course there is talk of further SF growth after 2012+.
4) So SF still makes up 70% of the FID capability and the ONLY UW capability. (Some 'experts' are suggesting that SOCOM scrap the UW tasking of MARSOC and let them focus on FID.)

Again, no DoD expert here, so I am sure others have some more educated PoV on all this.

Again, interesting to see what my future might hold.

Nothing like crystal ball gazing to make you want to go have a beer.


Scimitar

[nmap]

So....how about famine...say, about 2020?...on the Indian subcontinent?

We have talked about such things as the real estate bubble; however, there is a much bigger one. That is the population bubble which was largely created by the U.S. Agriculture Dept.'s "green revolution".

Because, as it turns out, those miracle seeds are thirsty. And India's water table is going down rapidly. How does one feed lots of people when the farmers have to depend on nothing but rain - and that's not sufficient?

Rhetorical Question: What happens if famine does strike the Indian subcontinent, and perhaps Pakistan as well?

Part 1 (http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=102893816&ps=cprs&sc=emaf)

Part 2 (http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=102944731&sc=emaf)

Possible long term way to make money on the situation: PHO

[Richard]

I'm no DoD expert, and I look forward to comments from those more educated in this area then I but....

From my reading so far, it seems most agree that of those of us who 'are in' or who are 'going in' to the Military this will be our likely ‘career paths’ in the near to middle future.

- Possible fighting Chinese and Russian surrogates mainly in Asia and Africa. (Korea-esq / Vietnam-esq)
- Probable deposing of States that support terrorists. (UW / Nation Building)

Oh did I forget to mention a freakin load of FID.

I'm no DOD expert, either, but my 23 years in the military were spent:


countering Chinese and Russian surrogates in Asia, Africa, and Latin America

working to depose governments/groups that support terrorists/terrorism

and "Oh did I forget to mention a freakin load of FID"...IDAD in my day. :rolleyes:

The more things change...

Welcome to the real world of the remote pastures where the sheepdog's roam, Nostradamus. ;)

Richard's $.02 :munchin

[Scimitar]

Funny, I asked my old man (20 years Army) about it and he said something similar. :D

Sorry us young fellas sometimes forget that the world existed with out us (as unbelievable as that may seem). :rolleyes:

S