View Full Version : Domestic violence?
Matta mile
11-16-2008, 07:06
Are we in for increased racially motivated domestic violence?
Thinking back to the Detroit riots of joblessness, racial tension and a hot summer, I am wondering if the conditions as stated below may indictate we may be heading in the same direction.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=2008-11-16_D94G05FO0&show_article=1&cat=breaking.
With many voters having unrealistic expectations of Predient elect Obama and the economy in a continued downward spiral, will some (too many perhaps) assign the shortcomings of their personal economics to race? With our military overextended (particuarly NG personnel and resources) I can't imagine how this will play out particulalr if fueled by the enemy.
MM
Are we in for increased racially motivated domestic violence?
Thinking back to the Detroit riots of joblessness, racial tension and a hot summer, I am wondering if the conditions as stated below may indictate we may be heading in the same direction.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=2008-11-16_D94G05FO0&show_article=1&cat=breaking.
With many voters having unrealistic expectations of Predient elect Obama and the economy in a continued downward spiral, will some (too many perhaps) assign the shortcomings of their personal economics to race? With our military overextended (particuarly NG personnel and resources) I can't imagine how this will play out particulalr if fueled by the enemy.
MM
In my humble opinion, the discussions of race, racially motivated violence, and the potential for race riots focus too narrowly on the tensions between blacks and whites. I believe that this focus is too narrow for two reasons.
First, I believe that the perceived tensions between blacks and whites are more cultural in nature than political. The cultural tensions can be addressed through debate in which both sides find ways to talk to each other rather than past each other, or worst of all, about each other.
I think that some blacks and some whites project the rage they feel towards the state of affairs onto members of the other group. I think that this rage may reflect commonly held perceptions that could be directed into activities that are less self-destructive.
Second, we live in the most diverse nation in the history of the world. The race relations in America is too often discussed as a black and white issue. Race relations in America are much broader historically and they remains so today.
Here in the Los Angeles area, some of the focal points of racial tension are blacks and Latinos, Latinos and Armenians, and whites and Asians. Although not generally considered a race or ethnic group, the gay and lesbian community is coming to grips with the fact that nearly 80% of black voters cast their ballot to outlaw same-sex marriages.
In the unlikelihood that America were to see wide spread racial violence, I think it would look different than many expect and the issues would be significantly different.
Yes, I think we will see more ethnic violence. A great deal more.
Sigaba points out that the differences between the Black and White ethnicities are largely cultural, and that's true enough. As Sigaba suggests, we can expand our view to other interactions between ethnic groups and advance the same argument. Cultural differences can lead, and have led, to persistent conflicts in other locales.
Matta Mile looks at the high expectations some groups have as a result of the current elections, and suggests that current conditions will result in disappointment, and hence anger.
In my view, our society has offered a variety of payments and programs designed to mitigate tensions. In essence, we have offered to pay for peace. By and large, it has worked; we have had few large-scale riots, such as Watts in 1965.
The overall economy is unlikely to recover quickly or strongly. We may start to recover by the first quarter of 2010; but it seems less and less likely that the turnaround will begin prior to that. When the recovery occurs, it will be slow, and employment will not enjoy a robust recovery. Given the high amount of deficit spending, inflation seems probable. Combined, this suggests economic misery. In addition, government debt must be sold to someone, somewhere. How many trillions of dollars worth of debt can foreign investors swallow? There are hints we're getting close to the regurgitation phase. The result will be higher interest rates, and debt monetization - neither good for the person on the street.
It would be wise to look at the world as a whole, too. To the south we see Mexico, with a burgeoning population, and a depleting oil field. The government depends on PEMEX for 36% of their revenue; what happens when that declines? It seems probable that the U.S. will witness a mass migration northward. This will exacerbate ethnic tensions as Latino, Chicano, Black, and White ethnicities experience shifts in population, costs, and labor supply.
To the east, we see Africa and the Middle East. Africa has essential natural resources, as with oil in Nigeria. U.S. interests may require additional engagement with Africa. Given the connections between B0 and Kenya, we may see increased immigration from Africa - during a period when U.S. workers are unemployed. The Middle East does not seem in imminent danger of transforming into a peaceful haven of good will. Yet, the global economy depends on oil and investment money from that locale.
India depends on a growing U.S. economy, as does China. If the U.S. consumer feels distress, those nations will also. But it seems that each of them must maintain a policy of growth and increasing unemployment, or risk social unrest. If our government does not support transfer of work and production to those nations, the consequences may be geopolitical instability - but U.S. workers will suffer. The resulting anger - particularly at a President who promised change, and a party that professes to defend the working men and women of America - may be breathtaking.
Now add in some possibilities - my opinion, hence probably in need of some serious salt. What if the dollar declines substantially? And - what if peak oil is here? If these are true, the price of everything - particularly food - will go up a lot. The price of fuel and gasoline will too. This suggests that any nascent recovery will be aborted, and the globe will descend into an even worse recession.
But notice that in all of this, there is no common enemy. Hence, there is nothing to unite us. Instead, we will face increased competition, decreased wages and opportunity, and some genuine privation. Our differences - with ethnic differences tending to be highly visible - may serve as a basis for dividing into "us" and "them". Perhaps this will lead to conflict between all the groups? Maybe this will increase the sense of ethnic identity - and also the sense of grievance against other groups? My theory is that one seeks to form alliances during hard times. Right now (yes, even this afternoon) we are well fed and comfortable in most cases. We don't need to divide our world into allies and enemies. But if we experience real want, then I suspect we will look for those who can (and will) help us, and will band together against the "others". From such division, I think violence must ultimately spring.
Sigaba, you are a student of history. Under this scenario, what are the chances that demagogues and radical politics will flourish? If so, does this not increase the likelihood and extent of violence?
Matta Mile, you have surely seen more of the world than I ever will. How will people react? If the folks down south are hungry, will they start walking north? When an urbanized people become desperate, how do they react?
In my humble opinion, the discussions of race, racially motivated violence, and the potential for race riots focus too narrowly on the tensions between blacks and whites. I believe that this focus is too narrow for two reasons.
In the unlikelihood that America were to see wide spread racial violence, I think it would look different than many expect and the issues would be significantly different.
Sigaba,
Agree with your point. Here in the Mid-western U.S., Latinos face a larger scrutiny than even Blacks.
Yet even today, here in the state of Oklahoma, there is Race-hatred. And none should kid themselves...
There is a Lake here called Greenleaf, which has accesible cabins for the disabled. Long story short, I was told NOT to go on a recent planned trip with my sis, due to the areas we would need to travel through to get there. Reason being? The "help" we had traveling with us that weekend was black. :rolleyes:
my .0000002,
Holly
Yes, I think we will see more ethnic violence. A great deal more.
Sigaba, you are a student of history. Under this scenario, what are the chances that demagogues and radical politics will flourish? If so, does this not increase the likelihood and extent of violence?
Shortly before Operation DESERT STORM, CNN called Robert Divine, a historian of American foreign relations. Divine was asked what he thought would happen. Divine said "I don't know," and rang off. When it comes to gleaning lessons from the past to forecast the future, I agree with historians such as my former mentor who believe that our craft offers few insights. (And at this point, other former mentors might want to strangle me for not telling 'truth to power.')
I will offer an academic perspective that is informed by my understanding of the historiography of American social history on the one hand and German social history on the other. Many politically radical historians think that left of center radicalism in America is dead. We've joked here about how the president elect is going to make Carter look like Dutch Reagan. In this crowd, there is no difference between the president-elect and Barry Goldwater.
Meanwhile, German historians who have sought to reconstruct the history of everyday life (alltagsgeschichte) believe that the rise of fascism was due to the atomization of German society. What Hitlerian ideology could not offer to Germans, incompatible promises to divergent economic interests could. (Here, a key difference between Hitler's manipulation of mass communications technology and the president-elects is that the realization that the promises could not be kept did not take hold among Germans until they were huddled in air raid shelters.) Here and now, I am heartened by the fact that too many Americans, even those who voted for the president elect out of party loyalty, understand that the president elect is just another guy, not a savior.
I will offer this question. When we look at our present situation and use historical examples to draw parallels and forecast possible outcomes, are we overlooking the power of the Internet?
An observation. What has become increasingly clear from my time on this board and others is the degree to which living in the L.A. area gives a different (not better or worse, more accurate or distorted, just different) view that many Americans have of many important issues.
I think when some of you take me to task for being too optimistic or not experienced enough, it may be because I see how tense things are in Southern California but that things get worked out in the media, in the community, and in the local governments.
Take for example that appallingly bad decision by two men in West Hollywood to hang in effigy Gov. Palin. It took a while, but eventually the community figured out how bad an idea it was. Area residents eventually led the effort to get that damn mannequin taken down with the help of the city's government. To me, this was an example of people doing the right thing even though the only time West Hollywood has a Republican in it is when someone comes to help friends move. (Someone owes me a six pack of Coca Cola.)
I think that here in L.A., alongside with some intense rivalries, heated debates, deep dislikes, and outbreaks of violence, there's a broader understanding that we have no choice but to work things out.
Thankfully, we have some cultural factors working in our favor. First, is the area diversity. We patronize each others' stores, eat each others' food, rub elbows on mass transit trains and busses, and strive to solve problems in the work place. While we annoy, criticize, scrutinize, and antagonize each other, we also befriend and help each other.
I get really worked up when I think about the economic impact illegal aliens have on the state's economy. I want my tax dollars to help my fellow citizens, not foreign nationals. But as I've no way of knowing if this guy or that gal who helps me is here legally, is a citizen, or is breaking the law. So I have to balance my sense of outrage with my everyday experiences.
Second, is the entertainment industry. Yes, it gets lambasted for its political bias and some of the questionable themes. But in addition to the money that industry brings to the local economy, it also helps to form common bonds of interest. Talking about movies and television programs is a way to get to know someone, how not to push their buttons (or how to push their buttons, if one so prefers), and this information can inform how one talks about other issues.
Third, there are the sports teams, especially the Lakers. Since 1979, that team has been a unifying force here. For better or for worse (probably the latter), the most intense debate in L.A. after the issue of immigration has been who was responsible for the feud between Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant.
Some, such as the president-elect, whose perspective is informed by theories of human behavior that stress economic considerations, would call such discourse examples of 'false consciousness'. I am of the view that cultural interaction something much more significant.
It is a matter of heated debate among intellectuals, academics, and political strategists of what trumps what. Is it economics? Is it race? How about gender? What about class? Or is it culture? I suppose that we're poised to find out.
What ever it ends up being, or not being, I am confident that our better natures will prevail before we engage in any sustained acts of collective self destruction.
Matta mile
11-16-2008, 16:40
Gents:
Thanks for your comments and perspectives.
I would very much like to think along with the comments of Sigaba in that we have grown up as a nation and are beyond simple race finger pointing. However, with the cultural diversity we proudly enjoy while the world continues to flatten out I somehow don't tend believe our citizens definition of Government legitimacy to accomodate them to a degree that it is acceptable to most under the current and future anticipated economic conitions. Those who "had" and no longer "have" will likely view the governmnent's level of legitimacy failing and may go to their own means. As the world continues to flatten (credit has protected us here in the US from feeling the flattening IMHO), we may find our quality of life leveling downward which I don't believe many will readily accept and as NMap point out, we have no one to blame hence we may turn inward on a regional basis. Hope I am way wrong.
MM
I think it will be a real test to see how much the WWW influences--for better or worse--any such matters in the future.
For example, right after the general elections, students noticed a piece of rope hanging from a tree on the Baylor University campus in Waco, TX. Assuming it was placed there as a symbol of racism in reference to BHOs election win, the 'word' went out amongst the blogophiles and protests began with speeches and a march on the campus decrying such behavior. The university investigated the matter and concluded that the rope found hanging from a campus tree had been there for quite a while, and was apparently an abandoned swing and not a noose.
Kinda reminds me of the guy in "Animal House" standing in the midst of chaos at the end of the movie and yelling for everyone to remain calm as they were running screaming hither and yon. :D
Richard's $.02 :munchin
Matta mile
11-16-2008, 18:41
Anything less than "two chickens in every pot"(even if purchased on credit) transforms populations to downward associations in my opinion.
The power of the web has been amply identified to this point. It's transformation/adaptability to future applications remains to be seen.
However, it cannot be refuted that it is in place and likely to be leveraged thru a variety of demographics.
MM
The link connects to the UK Independent. Apparently, the current times have led to an increase in poaching - by armed gangs that damage crops and intimidate residents.
LINK (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/this-britain/game-beware-its-the-return-of-the-poacher-1021722.html)
It is my contention that we in the West have not experienced hard times yet. If the rule of law is already starting to fray in the UK, what happens if the trend continues down? What happens in the inner city portion of Detroit, LA, and East St. Louis?
Got popcorn? :munchin
Lurcher Dog
What a thief:D
Must have pet for the 2009-2010 feeding season?
Sigaba,
where do gangs fit in in Los Angels, New York, Cleveland, Chicago, and etc., etc? These guys and gals aren't so much as split down the line on Cultural diversity as they are about committing crimes. These are the types of people who are very dangerous when things get really nasty in the economy along with former inmates from state penitentaries. Most, if not just about all of them, will turn into predators like the gangs and those with violent histories noted as domestic violences. I believe that when these "Criminals" start to really suffer at the bottom of the food chain and begin to protest on their treatment, then we will have reached the ignition point for the streets to ignite into riots.
FWIW, we will always have one or two people who will not go with the flow and side on common sense or for the goodness of common man. They will be the flame.
just my $.02 worth
Constant
11-17-2008, 12:49
What happens in the inner city portion of Detroit, LA, and East St. Louis?
My father and I have spoke on this many times in the past few months. He lives out in the sticks in Missouri, but close enough to a medium sized city for necessities if needed (pasturized milk, already made bread, etc). We used to live in St. Louis, and I remember all too well the violence that happened just so there was violence. I believe that if food shortages actually began happening, or if prices were just too high, that a) riots will happen and price controls are put into place (welfare) b) riots/stealing happen and continues in a downward spiral but LE steps in and price controls are put into place (welfare) or in the event of food shortages c) folks like my father will be using force to defend their property as it has fresh fruit/vegetables/fish/meat on it at all times.
His current plan is preparing for "c" and his neighbors are planning the same way as well (neighbors meaning 2-3 country miles N/S/E/W of him).
I hope for the best in our country and believe we will be fine after a year or two of pain, but I've prepared, and am continuing to prepare for the worst.
Sigaba,
where do gangs fit in in Los Angels, New York, Cleveland, Chicago, and etc., etc? These guys and gals aren't so much as split down the line on Cultural diversity as they are about committing crimes. These are the types of people who are very dangerous when things get really nasty in the economy along with former inmates from state penitentaries. Most, if not just about all of them, will turn into predators like the gangs and those with violent histories noted as domestic violences. I believe that when these "Criminals" start to really suffer at the bottom of the food chain and begin to protest on their treatment, then we will have reached the ignition point for the streets to ignite into riots.
FWIW, we will always have one or two people who will not go with the flow and side on common sense or for the goodness of common man. They will be the flame.
just my $.02 worth
Sir--
My information on gangs and gang violence in the L.A. area mainly comes from the local news coverage (which can be quite good when it isn't preoccupied with Paris Hilton's un-pantied pudendum) and an unexpected run-in I had several months ago on the train :eek:.
The situation is, in a word, volatile. Some Latino gangs are trying to cleanse ethnically a couple of neighborhoods of African-Americans. This past spring, the violence and subsequent retaliations led to a massive inter-agency effort by law enforcement to crack down on both groups. Meanwhile, the communities attempted to come together to protest the violence. The fact that so many people were reluctant to show their face or use any part of their real names for television news interviews shows how tense things are.
Since L.A. is perpetually in the shadow of disaster (floods, earthquakes, fires, and Britney Spears), it is hard to know how people will respond if things got very bad very quickly. Will we stick together or will we be at each other's throats? I have no guesses, only hopes.