View Full Version : The Ultimate (?) Doom & Gloom Video
The attached video link from Fox News has a distinctly negative set of predictions for the future economy. However, the fellow doing the predicting has a track record of being right - at least, according to Fox.
So... :munchin
VIDEO (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=46MEqEgdLTg)
Red Flag 1
11-13-2008, 18:08
Interesting that this was done at a bar. Given the prediction, better I was in the bar for this news!
Are the good times over? How far will things fall? Is there a fix?
I do feel people have been living beyond their means, on credit for decades. Eventually it has to catch up. It seems the housing market has led the way.
nmap, give us some good news!!!!!
RF 1
Matta mile
11-13-2008, 18:13
Hello NMap,
Thanks for sending along that perspective (the one we all want to believe is false).
Hopefully, China will provide us the green backs for the short term fix.
But I have ongoing concerns about the continued shrinkage of the domestic economic engines in our country perhaps coming down to just real estate alone which is no secret..failing (and a one trick pony to boot).
These factors combined with what appears to be growth in hate groups (Obama's race I presume), spiriling unemployment, many people with unrealistic expectations of Obama and many who did not want him in the first spells our nation becoming a"soft target" with conditions being set for domestic and non-domestic issues that may require military intervention IMHO. I really do hope I am way off base.
MM
Interesting that this was done at a bar. Given the prediction, better I was in the bar for this news!
Are the good times over? How far will things fall? Is there a fix?
I do feel people have been living beyond their means, on credit for decades. Eventually it has to catch up. It seems the housing market has led the way.
nmap, give us some good news!!!!!
RF 1
All questions I ask myself rather often.
I have a suspicion we're in a period of transition - to what, I'm not sure. We have a great many changes to deal with, and we aren't prepared for it. The good times we have known may be supplanted by something quite different; good in its way, but not the same.
If we look at things through the perspective of credit, we still have some distance to go. Take a look at the issue of housing prices. The sustainable level is for median housing prices to be about three times median household income. We're closer to 3.8 times as matters stand. (I don't have a link immediately at hand, but if its important to anyone, I'll try to dig one up.). We also have a lot of securities in the market that almost no one fully understands - and as a result, no one wants to buy them. Their value is essentially zero. Which means that capital and debt mutually annihilate, leaving nothing but ashes.
So far, the fix has proved elusive. The bailout is not working, and Treasury appears to be scrambling about - that appearance is the problem. It further injures confidence. It may be that the only fix is to permit the process to clear out all the bad debt. The effects will be wrenching.
However, you asked for some good news; perhaps there is some, and it came from Colonel Moroney on Oct. 10th, in reference to a thread on panic. Here's what he said: (I added the emphasis)
"From my limited experience with this subject, panic usually evolves when the normal rules of expected behavior, for whatever reason, no longer apply. In the case of the market, I imagine just about every model used to predict expected behavior has been turned on its ear. Folks are trying to predict the future from past behavior not really taking the time to draw any parallels between the conditions and factors that existed in the past to those that exist today. I am sure that there are some distinct differences because nothing remains static. Those that can control panic are the ones that have gained respect from their experience and expertise and have gained a level of respect from those that look to them for resolution, but usually the fact that they have met folks expectations in the past is usually insufficient unless they can also show, or have a clearly defined vision, of the way forward. It is critical for those that find themselves in this situation have not only the confidence of those that look to them for guidance but that the game plan for controlling the situation and moving forward is understood and within the abilities of those that find themselves flailing around in a panic mode. Those that are in a panic mode already see themselves as stakeholders in the outcome of the event, the trick is how to harness those stakeholders so that they no longer run around in circles at ever increasing speeds with the threat of running up their own 4th POC put providing a clear azimuth to an objective that they can all see and obtain. In the most dangerous of panic situations, the resolution can require unorthodox actions often at great personal risk. " LINK (http://www.professionalsoldiers.com/forums/showthread.php?t=20029)
In essence, panic must continue until an effective leader interrupts the process, or the participants exhaust themselves. At the risk of being accused of cynicism, I don't perceive much chance of effective leadership in this matter.
Therefore, we must look for exhaustion. Since the preponderance of people say they're afraid, we may be approaching the bottom. An article in Barron's applied some measures that suggest panic may have achieved a maximum. From that angle, even the video may add to the possibility we're there.
Let's hope so....
Hello NMap,
Thanks for sending along that perspective (the one we all want to believe is false).
Hopefully, China will provide us the green backs for the short term fix.
But I have ongoing concerns about the continued shrinkage of the domestic economic engines in our country perhaps coming down to just real estate alone which is no secret..failing (and a one trick pony to boot).
These factors combined with what appears to be growth in hate groups (Obama's race I presume), spiriling unemployment, many people with unrealistic expectations of Obama and many who did not want him in the first spells our nation becoming a"soft target" with conditions being set for domestic and non-domestic issues that may require military intervention IMHO. I really do hope I am way off base.
MM
Sir, I share your concerns. We as a society are not used to hard times; anyone not in their 80's cannot recall the 1929 depression. By and large, we cannot imagine not having all the necessities along with some luxuries. So, as you suggest, there is a chance people will behave badly - in the same way other people, in other times and places have behaved. That must surely include radical groups.
Our domestic police will face budget pressures, and should they be faced with extensive problems, they will (in my opinion) find it difficult to maintain control. Matters on the U.S. southern border seem to be getting worse, and a variety of cities are vulnerable to disruption. Roughly 20 years ago, San Antonio had a snow storm - perhaps six inches. It lasted a single day. But the public cleared the store shelves of many staples. I wonder how matters would develop if the shelves weren't restocked for a week.
We're probably going to be an ever softer target. The war on drugs has been going on for as long as I can remember - but the news reports indicate drugs are more available than ever. If that sort of illegal behavior can prevail, then it seems likely other sorts could too.
Our military may be the only way to maintain some semblance of order. I wonder about the implications if that happens. It is my observation that the use of military units in a law enforcement capacity doesn't turn out very well, although I'm open to correction if that view is in error.
Hopefully, we'll get some sort of economic stabilization and improvement. That said, there are underlying issues in our society, as well as in the global economy, that inhibit any optimism.
Here's hoping he's wrong... I've got money to make.
But he might be right... I checked out his website, he has a pretty decent track record.
So I'm not getting any Presents this year.....THIS SUCKS:D
I think we will go into maybe a painful recession, and depending on how Barack Obama governs, it will either last a long time, or we'll get through it, and there will probably be some civil unrest here and there, but otherwise I think things will be okay.
This is of course my opinion and not based off any professorial degree of economics knowledge or anything, but isn't there a saying that economists have predicted twelve of the last seven recessions, or something like that? (I know those aren't the proper numbers).
It's as reasonable position as any.
As for economists...Greenspan is an economist who got us where we are today. Bernanke is an economist. He doesn't seem to have done much good. So maybe it's good you aren't an economist! :D