PDA

View Full Version : Afghanistan and the GWOT


NousDefionsDoc
11-25-2007, 18:01
What would happen if we pulled out of A-stan by the end of 2007?

Jack Moroney (RIP)
11-25-2007, 19:57
Like any other guerrilla organization that has gone to ground when the fight gets tough, they will capitalize on the infrastructure that they have been maintaining and attempting to build and move further into phase II of their next attempt to take back the country. BTW, they will invite Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid to give the graduation address to their first new class of graduating G's.

x-factor
11-25-2007, 23:29
Interesting question. Define "pulled out."

NATO forces? Conventional forces? Overt forces? US Embassy presence? etc etc etc.

jatx
11-26-2007, 11:24
Drug production would grow unchecked, with the resulting funds being used to further destabilize Pakistan. Ewes would be back to wearing panties in public.

jbour13
11-26-2007, 11:36
Drug production would grow unchecked, with the resulting funds being used to further destabilize Pakistan. Ewes would be back to wearing panties in public.

Drug production goes unchecked for the most part as it is. Some of the leading warlords that have historically grown, cultivated, processed and transported the drugs, are now in the IRoA government. Look at Karzai's brother a little harder and you'll find your answers.

How well does the government utilize forces to combat it's growning drug problem? (not well at all, showing up with a few tractors and slashing down a few hundred acres countrywide does not constitute effort)

What percentage of the poppy grown goes to fueling the insurgency? (see below)

Most recent UNAMA report on Opium Trade:
New Measures Against the Afghan Opium Tsunami


October 31, 2007 - Senior international counter-narcotics officials are meeting in Kabul today and tomorrow to improve efforts to stop the flow of deadly drugs out of Afghanistan. The meeting, organized by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), is held in the framework of the Paris Pact – a initiative launched in 2003 to promote coordinated measures to counter narco-trafficking in, and from Afghanistan.
Afghanistan had a record harvest of 8,200 tons of opium in 2007, a 34% increase in production over 2006. The total opium export is valued at $4 billion in Afghanistan, an increase of 29% over 2006. The opium economy is now equivalent to more than half (53%) of the country's licit GDP.
This deadly export gains value at every border crossing, because of the risks entailed by smuggling. By the time the heroin hits the streets of Moscow, London or Paris, the Afghan opium export could worth up to 100 times more. For Antonio Maria Costa, executive head of UNODC, "while opium brings some revenue to Afghanistan, over 90% of profits are made by international criminal gangs and terrorists networks".
At the Kabul meeting the world will be invited to do much more against this threat. To begin with, only a fraction of Afghanistan's opiates is being seized worldwide (24% against 48% of the Colombian cocaine seized). In Central Asia the interdiction rate is less than 4%, mostly in Tajikistan. Since 2005, new heroin routes have emerged via Pakistan and via Central Asia to China and India. "If border control is not improved Afghanistan's neighbors will be hit by a tsunami of the most deadly drug", warned Mr. Costa.
"Afghan drugs pose a major threat to public health everywhere, because of higher deaths to overdoses, and to security to Afghan neighbors, because of drug money flowing into the funding of terrorism", Mr. Costa stated recently, addressing the heads of state of the CIS countries (Commonwealth of Independent States). “CIS countries are under attack and not ready as yet to protect themselves”. To help, UNODC has promoted the establishment of a Central Asia Regional Information Centre and has brokered a Trilateral Initiative to improve counter-narcotics cooperation among Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan.

At the Kabul meeting, experts from North America, Central Asia, the European Union, CIS countries, Iran, Pakistan, Interpol, NATO and the WCO will critically review the regional and international efforts to contain the Afghan opiates threat. New initiatives will be considered, focused on border security and trans-border cooperation, on the smuggling of precursor chemicals into Afghanistan, and on the threat posed by opium trafficking into China.

Para
11-26-2007, 18:16
Ok, back to the question. Karzai's government has little political authority outside of Kabul. Almost all of the elected members of Parliament are warlords from the various regions who only serve to protect their interests, and yes, the drug trade is a big part of it. As eluded, Karzai's family is heavily tied into the drug trade and accounts for some of the largest smugglers. If not already classified as such, it is very close; Afghanistan is a narco-state.

Afghan National Army (ANA) and Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF), comprised of mainly Afghan Border Police (ABP), Afghan National Police (ANP) and in some parts Afghan Highway Police (AHP), are ill-trained, unmotivated, largely corrupt and under-equipped. Most buy their way into uniform for the sole purpose of using their position for financial gain. They do not have the will, nor the capability to fight. Recruitment policies required that ANA/ANSF personnel must know how to read and write. Unfortunately, this denied access to the majority of the true warriors from the Soviet Occupation and Northern Alliance days. In regions where the Taliban has gained ground, defections are common. Its self-preservation, Afghani's will side with who they perceive to be the coming winner. There is no sense of nationalism or an ideal of a better way; it is all about day-to-day survival.

If Coalition Forces (CF) pulled out of Afghanistan, there would be mass abandonment within the ANA and ANSF ranks. Without the superior firepower of CF's, uniformed pro-GOA resistance will crumble.

The Taliban would instantly capitalize upon an announced withdrawal and begin planning with the assistance of the pro-Taliban ISI and PAK MIL which controls the tribal regions of Pakistan. Upon implementation of withdrawal and the cessation of active ground combat, Taliban forces would move north through southern Afghanistan and mass into the Panjawai district outside of Kandahar. Once Kandahar was taken which would probably happen before all CF elements had left Afghanistan, they would push north towards Kabul. From the east, Hezbi Islami Gulbuddin (HIG) forces along with the Haqqani network would push across the border and secure their respective lands. The question is, would these entities unity under a single ideal once again or will they each shoot for individual dominance?

Afghan resistance in the form of the warlords and former Northern Alliance members would be Afghanistan’s one hope. Although, it is my assessment that they could not mobilize and equip fast enough to stop the Taiban from seizing power. Once in power, the Taliban would instantly adopt their old ways. Al Qaeda would once again set up within the borders of Afghanistan and an Islamic extremist movement would grow like we have never seen before. Using Afghanistan as it's safe area and with the assistance of elements within ISI and PAK MIL, extremists would push into Pakistan with the purpose of overthrowing Musariff's government.